Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
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Speaker 2 (00:23):
Welcome about Bloomberg Intelligence. I'm Lise Matteo alongside Paul Sweeney.
Big day for bank earning some mixed reports though. Taking
a look at the stock, we have JP Morgan they're
down their shares down about half percent, Wells Fargo down
five percent, we have City up about one and a
half percent. So here to break it all down for
us and what happened with each bank is Alison Williams,
who else Bloomberg Intelligence, Senior analyst, Global Banks and Asset Managers. Alison,
(00:47):
Thanks for joining us here in the studio. Good to
see you. So let's start with JP Morgan, right, they
had some surprise deal making gains. I mean, is that
a sign that taraffears are easy or how do you
take it?
Speaker 3 (00:58):
I mean they had a solid quarter.
Speaker 4 (01:01):
There's always a high bar for JP Morgan, but I
think a really good quarter, strong returns, good organic growth,
and I think, you know, about a billion dollars of
upside with trading and fees, and so I think that
we you know, we did see that that fee pick
up we saw April stall, then we saw fees really
did pick up in May and June. As you said,
(01:23):
it really is. The advisory business was big upside, you know,
for both JP Morgan and City and we also saw
IPOs better and so we have seen that improving sentiment.
I think there is going to be a little bit
of a lift in terms of some of the expectations
for those banking fees going forward as well.
Speaker 5 (01:44):
Red Headline crossing the Bloomberg terminal, Tesla's top North America
sales executive, Troy Jones exits.
Speaker 6 (01:50):
That's according to the Wall Street Journal. So when it
rains at.
Speaker 5 (01:53):
Pours there all right, here we go. So we had
JP Morgan, City Group in Wells report today. Guess what
I worked at all of the firms Chase and Hatton
Bank not part of JP Morgan, Salomon Brothers now part
of City Group, and Wheat First Securities, which is.
Speaker 6 (02:09):
Now part of Wells Fargo.
Speaker 5 (02:10):
That's what Wills Fargo got its original broker deal license
by acquiring my firm Wheak for Securities, Richard Virginia.
Speaker 6 (02:16):
So I got I'm biased all over the place here.
Let's start with Citygroup.
Speaker 5 (02:18):
I think that's got the most upside because I think
it's underperformed for such a long time. It was just
begging for really, really, really good management. Is this, I mean,
a stock's hitting fifty two weeks high today? Is this
the turnaround that everybody's been waiting for?
Speaker 3 (02:33):
You think, think, yeah, Jane is getting it done right.
Speaker 4 (02:35):
So and and to be fair, you know, her predecessor's
made some changes, but I think she's She's made some
tough decisions, you know, especially the sale of the you know,
the Mexico business, where she really cut her teeth. I
think that is a sign that she can be objective
in terms of deciding what's right for the business. And
(02:58):
they are working there way up to some better return. So,
you know, there's a lot of talk about the evaluation
for City Group. We know that they trade at a
discount to their book value. They traded assistant to their peers. Wow,
that's what happens when you don't earn your cost of
capital and your returns are below peers. But I think
(03:21):
the changes that they're making are moving them in the
right direction.
Speaker 2 (03:24):
So when I look at Wells Fargo, I'm trying to
go through the information. So the big thing that kind
of stands out to me is that across the one
point nine to five trillion asset mark, is that a
big milestone?
Speaker 4 (03:35):
Well, the removal of the asset cap that is really
I think that the big structural benefit. And I think
that goes to the number that you're talking about, where
you know, for years they had to.
Speaker 3 (03:45):
Limit their balance sheet growth.
Speaker 4 (03:46):
They finally got the go ahead that you know, we
don't have to be so concerned about what that exact
number is.
Speaker 3 (03:52):
I think the stock has really.
Speaker 4 (03:55):
Priced in a lot of the optimism around getting that
ass cap remove. I mean basically has been you know,
a huge gainer since the US election. I think the
shares are responding today to the lower debt interest income outlook,
and I think there's a couple of things there.
Speaker 3 (04:13):
The core net interest income, that's what people focus.
Speaker 4 (04:16):
On, right because the income that you get from trading
generally has an offset to fees. But if you're just
focusing on top on, you're just focusing on that number.
People are disappointed in that outlook.
Speaker 3 (04:29):
For Welsbargo.
Speaker 5 (04:31):
What are you hearing from these banks today and over
the coming days about loan growth because it seems like
what the yield curve steepening, it's a good time to
be making loans. How's the demand out there? Because only
hear about is private credit here?
Speaker 6 (04:44):
Private credit there? How about the banks?
Speaker 4 (04:46):
I mean, we are we did see like things a
little bit better. I would say that, you know, the
grow loan growth is still a bit modest, but the
expectation in terms of reduced risk to the economy is
really a positive these banks going into the second half,
and so I think there's there's certainly room for improvement
(05:06):
in the loan growth.
Speaker 3 (05:08):
But I think things were fine.
Speaker 2 (05:09):
Well, there's been the loosening and regulations capital requirements for
the banks. I mean, did this show up in the
results or or when will it?
Speaker 4 (05:17):
I think that's that is something that is going to
come over time. I mean, we did see some some
some good buybacks at Wells Fargo for example, But I
think the big news was the stress tests that we
saw in June basically are signaling that their capital hurts
are going lower. Further, a proposal out there that you
(05:40):
know there we're going to have sort of average results
over time, So that for this year means that the
the you know, the decreases might not be as much
and they might come a little bit later. But we
think that's positive over time because what that means is
that there'll be more stabilization and not sort of these
ratios moving around a lot, so lots of outside excess
(06:00):
capital at the banks. Even more as those ratios go lower,
that means more buybacks, especially since we expect that any
further regulations are not going to be as drastic.
Speaker 5 (06:13):
Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley they report tomorrow. I always love
looking at, you know, the way you guys analyze kind
of league tables and how people are doing competitively. Would
expect to hear from those two investment banks.
Speaker 3 (06:22):
I mean, so we expect strength.
Speaker 4 (06:24):
I mean the results that we saw today in terms
of fixed income trading better than expected, equities trading better
than expected, fees almost across the board better than expected.
We talked about the IPOs like that's a really good
sign for Morgan.
Speaker 3 (06:39):
Stanley and Goldman, the M and A.
Speaker 4 (06:41):
You know, Goldman is typically an M and A leader there,
although JP Morgan has really been catching up, So those
are all very positive signals. I mean, twenty seven percent
growth year every year in City Group's rates and currencies business.
That is a really strong result. And you know Goldman
and Morgan Stanley lead and the equities they earn the
(07:01):
most from these businesses, so I think that you.
Speaker 3 (07:03):
Know, the bar is definitely hire for them tomorrow. All right,
good stuff, appreciate it.
Speaker 5 (07:08):
Alison Williams, Senior anos Global Banks Asset Managers Bloomberg Intelligence.
Speaker 6 (07:12):
She's been doing it for a long time.
Speaker 5 (07:13):
She worked on the buyside at Morgan's Stanley Investment Management,
investing in these big banks, so she knows what she's doing.
She's got a great team there at Bloomberg Intelligence on
a global basis looking at some of the big global
banks around the world. So I appreciate getting a couple
of minutes of her time.
Speaker 1 (07:32):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live
weekdays at ten am Eastern on Applecarclay, and Android Auto
with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you
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Speaker 5 (07:45):
We want to turn our attention to healthcare company Managed
care Company, United Health Group It's a big company, two
hundred and sixty seven billion dollars in market cap. Its
sound forty percent year to date, but it's had a
distinction of having I think sixty consecutive quarters that kind
of beat earnings estimates out there. But I think the
analysts are starting to take another look at some of
(08:06):
those earnings numbers, and they're going to look at how
this company put those numbers up. And I remember this
kind of story back in the day from General Electric,
where they would just beat by a couple of pennies
every single quarter.
Speaker 6 (08:18):
But that turned out.
Speaker 5 (08:19):
To be a little bit of a mirage when you
go back and look at.
Speaker 6 (08:21):
Some of the data there.
Speaker 5 (08:23):
Michelle Davis Joints is here, Bloomberg Senior Deals reporter, Michelle.
What you find when you're looking at United Healthcare? How
are they making some of those numbers recently?
Speaker 7 (08:32):
So, Yeah, as you mentioned, they had kind of a
pristine record for more than sixty quarters. They beat estimates.
Analysts love them, and at the end of last year
that got a bit harder for them to keep up.
You know, medical costs arising. The government's been cracking down
on reiinbursements and that was eating into profits. And so
what we reported is that at the end of last
(08:52):
year they approached several private equity firms and asked them
if they wanted to buy stakes off of them of
their businesses, and a couple interesting things happen here. Not
only did they quietly do this, but the deals were
structured such that United Health can be forced to buy
the businesses back down the road, so it's temporary in nature.
(09:13):
And United booked the gains in an interesting place. They
booked them as part of operating earnings, which is or
adjusted earnings, which is normally where you look to see
kind of how a business is doing, you know, excluding
one off gains or one off events like this. And
so it was just interesting to say, not only the
fact that they stealthily did this, but where they put them,
and without these gains they would have missed estimates and
(09:36):
profit would have dropped in the last quarter of last year.
Speaker 2 (09:39):
So, as I'm going through this article, this certain quote
stands out for me from an analyst that you spoke to.
He said, if the company is manufacturing earnings by chopping
up their furniture or selling their assets, that's not exactly
a great business model. Okay, so is the risk that
it might be kind of masking this weakness in the operations.
Speaker 3 (09:56):
That's the concern.
Speaker 7 (09:56):
And just to be clear, you know, there's nothing illegal
about what they're doing, per se. You know, they disclosed
that they did this, most people didn't see it. It
was in a footnote in their ten K that kind
of went under the radar, and there are no details
about what exactly they sold. That's what we're trying to
you know, report on here. But yeah, the concern is
it clouds, you know, your ability to see how the
business is actually performing. And we heard from sources that
(10:20):
there's a culture inside United Health of you know, kind
of there being this pressure to do whatever you can
to meet targets every quarter. Yep.
Speaker 5 (10:29):
So again the stock it's a huge company, huge player
in the managed care business. Stocks down forty percent. What's
the underlying concern for investors out there? Do you think
around this company?
Speaker 7 (10:39):
United Health has been dealing with a lot of things.
I mean, even before we knew about this, there was
obviously the tragedy of you know, one of their executives
being murdered last year, and then you know, there was
a Wall Street Journal investigation this year about potential medicare fraud,
which they have denied. They also in the first quarter
(11:01):
reported their first earnings miss in you know, more than
sixty quarters, so that shoe finally dropped. They ousted their CEO.
So investors are just concerned about the story here. You know, what,
what is the United Health story? I think that's what
the big concern is.
Speaker 2 (11:13):
So are there any other companies, like maybe other health
companies or something like that where this same story that
you've been talking about it kind of plays out?
Speaker 7 (11:23):
Not that we could find. It seems like United Health
is really you know, unique in its ability and history
of you know, really carefully managing it's reporting every quarter.
Speaker 5 (11:36):
So new management team here, what's kind of the focus
now at the company? What's kind of the message to
Wall Street about how they're I guess going to try
to turn this thing around.
Speaker 7 (11:43):
So they brought in their former CEO, who is a
accountant by by nature, and it seems like the market's
pretty uh, they've been put at ease by him. The
view or the hope from analysts is that the last
quarter was kind of an anomaly and they were just
bleeding out all the bad stuff and now they'll have
a lower base to kind of beat off of They
report earnings later this month, so we'll see, you know,
(12:05):
how the business is actually doing. But the big surprise
in the first quarter was that, you know, medical costs
were a lot higher than they say they anticipated. That
was confusing to people because their job is to anticipate that.
Speaker 5 (12:16):
But that's what I've when we're reporting on that story
a couple of weeks ago, I said, Yeah, isn't that
the job of the company to know, Hell, that's going
to go?
Speaker 2 (12:22):
All right?
Speaker 5 (12:23):
I'm looking at the an R function on the Bloomberg
kermninal that tracks analysts recommendations, and if you're not at
health they're twenty one buys, six.
Speaker 6 (12:31):
Holds and two cells.
Speaker 5 (12:33):
So yeah, I think the streets still generally buying off
on this maybe this turnaround story. But maybe we'll take
a look at your story here today. Michelle Davis, thank
you so much for joining us. Michelle Davis is a
senior deals reporter for Bloomberg News. Joining us live here
in our Bloomberg Interactive Brokers studio. But it's interesting to
see on the healthcare space, and again I always come
(12:53):
in here every Mondayly said, it's like there's an M
and A deal coming out of the healthcare space, which
keeps the likes of Michelle Davis busy on the deal front.
But it's again, we see it time and time again
in a healthcare space. If you can't come up with
that next drug or that next you know, procedure.
Speaker 6 (13:09):
Whatever in your R and D lab, you got to
join up.
Speaker 5 (13:12):
You got to go buy somebody. You know, you go
go go buy somebody. And that's how that business has played.
Speaker 1 (13:19):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live
weekdays at ten am Eastern on Applecarclay and Android Auto
with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you
get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 5 (13:33):
All right, Lisa Matteo, Paul Swhen you were live here
in our Bloomberg Interactive Brokeer Studio streaming live on YouTube.
So check us out there. You know, to an extent,
I at any luck in meeting other people. It's been
at a bar and no dating apps here.
Speaker 2 (13:47):
I know, I know, I met my husband at the
grease trucks at Rutgers after who doesn't having burgers?
Speaker 3 (13:52):
There you go.
Speaker 5 (13:53):
Now, dating apps must evolve, as gen Z redefines romance.
That's according to it bloom We're going to tell survey
We're going there, folks, We're going down that rabbit hole.
Nicole Desuza joins its Internet and software equity analysts for
Bloomberg Intelligence. Nicole, what's your survey? What are the questions
that asked and what did you find?
Speaker 8 (14:12):
Yeah, so we have Bloomberg Intelligence conducted the survey to
better understand how people are navigating dating, how they use
dating apps, and then also how they feel about AI
within dating apps. And so some really interesting findings. First
that you know, specifically, gen Z tends to be single
but not dating.
Speaker 6 (14:30):
Gen zs what age again, sixteen to twenty eight?
Speaker 5 (14:33):
Sixteen to twenty all right, so yay single, two of
my four into that one, Okay, And so they're not
using the apps.
Speaker 8 (14:39):
They're not even dating, single and not dating. So this
is I mean, there's a few reasons. Studies have kind
of shown they do have higher rates of loneliness, but
they are also prioritizing independence. They are also you know,
feeling a reduced stigma around being single. So it could
really change dating patterns generationally.
Speaker 2 (15:00):
I can kind of say my son was on a
dating app and then he stopped because he got tired
of it and it just and he's in that gen
Z kind of group and they're not going to pay
for them too. So how does that change for these
different you know, dating apps out there? How do they
have to change their approach?
Speaker 8 (15:17):
So right now a lot of what we're seeing from
gen Z is that even though they are dating less,
they are looking for long term relationships. Those that are dating,
they are looking to form meaningful connections. So, you know,
some of the products we've seen from these dating apps
that really introduce AI are more around how to create
a profile, how to make it easier to talk to people,
(15:38):
you know, using AI to generate prompts that might not
necessarily you know, correlate with what gen Z is looking
for in terms of forming a meaningful connection.
Speaker 5 (15:46):
I'll tell you Lisa go to the Parker House and
seeing her in New Jersey on a summer Saturday, thousands
and thousands of kids of gen Z type are there
yet like four o'clock in afternoon, they're not on the
They're all made up, dressed to the nines. I think
they're looking too to meet somebody.
Speaker 2 (16:05):
Right now, I've been here, I had to wait on dress.
Speaker 6 (16:08):
I mean, I don't know what's going on. How about millennials?
How did they fare?
Speaker 8 (16:12):
So millennials are they kind of came of age during
the time of dating apps, so a lot of dating
apps are really created to target dating patterns of millennials.
So millennials have a more favorable relationship with dating apps,
and they also are much more like comfortable with AI
in dating apps versus gen Z, which was surprising to us.
Speaker 2 (16:32):
Now what about Okay, people always forget about gen X, the.
Speaker 3 (16:35):
Gen X folks.
Speaker 2 (16:37):
Yeah, so what about gen X? And then you know
my my mom, you know, single, like she wants to
find out about these apps. I'm telling you, what about
the older generation? They're on dating apps, so they're on it.
Speaker 8 (16:50):
There are Yeah, there are a lot of gen X
and baby boomers on dating apps, and there are a
wide variety of dating apps to kind of address different
age groups, different you know, things that people are looking for.
So they're they're available.
Speaker 6 (17:02):
How does AI have to ask the AI questions?
Speaker 5 (17:05):
Because we had a guest on earlier about it. I
walked out of there thinking AI is going to take
over Wall Street? How about AI and dating apps? That
I would think could be helpful to better select somebody
who might be a good match or something.
Speaker 8 (17:18):
So we've seen dating app companies roll out a lot
of AI products. I would say, right now, it seems
at least based on our survey, that they haven't been
that well received. It seems like people don't necessarily need
AI to build a better profile, they don't need AI
to help them engage in conversation. I think where it
has been helpful is user safety, so to weed out
(17:39):
profiles that are fake or you know, potentially send people
who are sending harmful messages, and that is a common complaint.
But as of right now, it doesn't seem that you know,
at least gen Z and even some millennials are really
really adopting these new AI products.
Speaker 2 (17:56):
So and there are certain a dating apps that are
more po popular than others, I mean, which are the
hot ones right now?
Speaker 8 (18:02):
So right now, at least by users, Tinder has by
far the most users that's owned by match Group. And
then Hinge is actually one of the few dating apps
that is continuing to grow users, and that's probably because
Hinge focuses a little bit more on kind of long
term relationships, building meaningful connections. Tinder still has a reputation
of kind of a hookup app.
Speaker 2 (18:22):
Yes, which one is that?
Speaker 3 (18:25):
Yeah, that's how my son was on.
Speaker 5 (18:31):
And I mean I'm looking at Nicole's research report.
Speaker 6 (18:35):
I mean she's got graphs here.
Speaker 5 (18:37):
Of like I'm in a monogamous relation, I'm single and
currently dating. I'm in an open relationship, single but not dating,
in a casual relationship by demo, by baby boomers, gen
X millennials. I mean, this is a lot of research here,
dudes on dating. I mean, go to a bar, you know,
have a cocktail, relax. I don't know, I don't know.
Speaker 6 (18:55):
It's good stuff here. But Nicole, thanks so much for
joining us.
Speaker 5 (18:57):
Great research again at Bi's cut and research Bloomberg Intelligence
using some survey data here to go out and take
a look at how some of these apps are working
out there.
Speaker 6 (19:08):
Nicole Desuza.
Speaker 5 (19:09):
She covers all the internet stuff and all the software
stuff for Bloomberg Intelligence.
Speaker 1 (19:15):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live
weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple Coarcklay and Android
Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever
you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 5 (19:29):
Black Rock. You know, the stock's down, but I mean
it's black Rock. I mean, twelve and a half trillion
and assets under management. I can't get my mind around that.
It's just an extraordinary story. And by the way, it's
separated from Blackstone.
Speaker 6 (19:47):
I mean, imagine if those two were together. Holy yew.
Speaker 5 (19:49):
Anyway, I mean, it's got a market cap up one
hundred and sixty billion. Black Rock is down six percent today,
up about one percent for the year. Neil Sips's in
stew He's got to explain to us what's going on here.
He covers all the asset managers for Bloomberg Intelligence, you know,
talk to us about Blackrock gear.
Speaker 6 (20:05):
They never seem to have problems getting money in the past.
What's going on?
Speaker 9 (20:09):
Yeah, And I think what you're seeing a little bit
in the second quarter is the net inflow figure was
about half the first quarter, so perhaps a little bit
slower than the analysts we're expecting. But what I think
is encouraging and sort of what we're seeing with the
transition you even mentioned Blackstone, Blackrock is trying to enter
some of those businesses in a more meaningful way that
(20:29):
Blackstone is involved in the private markets. We saw the
handful of transactions last year Global Infrastructure Partners HPS, and
what this is going to do is really sort of
improve the organic base feed growth. So while we're seeing
a little bit slower on the net inflow figure in
terms of broader asset growth, what it means is as
(20:50):
we push further into those private markets, those higher fee products,
that organic growth is actually more meaningful to the fundamentals
of the business. So we're going to see a little
bit of a transit here. I think perhaps that's what
you're seeing in the second quarter results today, is that
sort of slower inflow growth, but perhaps still pretty robust
based feed growth. And let's not forget the second quarter
(21:12):
was really a tale of two stories, a rather unique
quarter with a very challenging April and an incredible May
in June, so that is also sort of balanced in
the results.
Speaker 2 (21:22):
Now, a lot of messers look to what the executives
are saying. So what kind of tone did did CEO
Larry think take?
Speaker 9 (21:28):
Yeah, I think he struck a generally positive tone, especially
considering the sort of broader macro uncertainties that are still
out there. It feels like we've certainly moved back from
some of the more worst case scenarios we'll call them.
But there's still certainly quite a bit of uncertainty. But
when you look at equity markets, you don't necessarily see it,
right all time highs pretty much in the global equities landscape,
(21:51):
and so that's generally a positive for asset managers, particularly
someone like Blackrock. And what they've talked about is they
experienced momentum exiting the second quarter to the third quarter.
Clients continue to remain engaged. They haven't necessarily pulled away
in sort of the volatility that we saw in some
of the uncertainty that we talk about. So that sort
of creates a solid setup for black Rock moving forward.
Speaker 5 (22:13):
All right, So for the asset managers that you find,
like when I grew up in the business, the biggest
customers on Wall Street were the mutual funds, and then
hedge funds became big.
Speaker 6 (22:23):
Now it's ETFs. How do the asset.
Speaker 5 (22:26):
Managers that you deal with, you know, think about it? It
just seems like all the money is going to ETFs.
How do your asset managers deal with that?
Speaker 9 (22:34):
Yeah, Well, there's the way you deal with it is
enter the ETF space to sort of capture that flow.
But that is a business where scale is paramount. Because
you talk about ETFs, you're thinking about average ten basis
point fee rate. Right, You're not going to earn quite
a bit. The margins are going to be razor thin.
Unless you're the size of black Rock, who garners thirty
percent of the market in US ETFs. That can be
(22:56):
a profitable business, yep, and that's actually been from over
forty percent. Vanguard's the one that's sort of nipping at
the heels. But again it's sort of an oligopoly with Vanguard, Blackrock,
and Fidelity in the ETF space. But how do you
compliment that in a business where the flows are increasingly
going to ETFs. Well, they're also going to private markets
and that's why you saw again Blackrock push into that
(23:17):
space last year.
Speaker 6 (23:18):
All right, Neil, thanks so much. We appreciate it.
Speaker 5 (23:20):
Neil Sipes covers all the banks and asset managers for
Bloomberg A Tonza.
Speaker 1 (23:24):
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