September 24, 2025 • 15 mins
Watch Scarlet and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.
Bloomberg Intelligence hosted by Paul Sweeney and Scarlet Fu
*BROADCASTING FROM BLOOMBERG PHILANTHROPIES GLOBAL FORUM AT THE PLAZA*
-Jake Silverman, Bloomberg Intelligence Semiconductor Analyst, recaps Micron earnings. Micron Technology Inc. shares fell after the company's forecast failed to impress investors, despite fiscal first-quarter revenue and profit expectations being higher than estimated.
-Geetha Ranganathan, Bloomberg Intelligence Analyst on US Media, discusses Jimmy Kimmel’s show returning. Jimmy Kimmel returned to TV, saying "it was never my intention to make light of the death of a young man" and receiving a warm reception from the audience.
-Drew Reading, Bloomberg Intelligence U.S Homebuilding Analyst, discusses new home sales. New-home sales in the US surged in August to the fastest pace since early 2022, likely lifted by builders' price cuts and sales incentives.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the
Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am
heasterne on, Apple, Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg
Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts,
or watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 2 (00:24):
Right now, we want to go back to our Interactive
Broker studio and bring in one of our very own experts,
and he is, of course the expert on Micron, and
we want to talk about Micron because the stock is
lower today despite a beat and raised quarter. We do
have with us Jake Silverman of Bloomberg Intelligence. He's a
semiconductor analyst, and Jake, I wonder how much of this
(00:45):
disappointing price action today is tied to the fact that
the stock has had a blistering run in twenty twenty five,
more than doubling in value.
Speaker 3 (00:54):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (00:54):
No, I think it has a lot to do with
just very high expectations coming into the quarter. You know,
the stock being up ninety five percent year today going
into the report last night just had a lot.
Speaker 3 (01:07):
To do with it.
Speaker 4 (01:08):
But overall, look, I mean the fundamentals of the business
remained very strong. I think the commentary on the call
last night for management was very positive, and so I
think we're going to continue to see an up cycle
and memory at least for the near term.
Speaker 5 (01:22):
So what is the call here, what's the street looking
for for this name? Again, A stock's just as you mentioned,
ripped this year up ninety four percent year today. What's
the call here?
Speaker 4 (01:31):
Yeah, No, I mean, I think investors are really looking
at high bandwidth memory, they're looking at AI, they're looking
at data center related revenue. In the last fiscal year,
data center related revenue was fifty to six percent of sales.
So as demand continues for that, we also have to
keep in mind that you know, there's traditional products as
(01:53):
well that are an important part of the business that
includes smartphones and PCs. Investors really want to see continued
pricing strength. And as demand continues to grow for high
bandwidth memory, which is very important for AI, and as
capacity for that shifts over. Sorry, because capacity shifts over
to high bandwidth memory, it can further constrains the supply
(02:16):
because it has lower yields, it has larger die sizes,
so there's only so much capacity industry, and it's shifting
over in favor of AI. And that's just constraining supply
for traditional products, which given the supply and demand, the
importance of supplying demand balancing the industry, it would suggest
that as long as demand for AI continues to grow,
(02:36):
we'll see further pricing increases.
Speaker 2 (02:38):
So that's a lot of conditions. I mean, you talk
about memory chips, which Micron is the biggest US maker of.
We know that this business is kind of famous or
infamous really for merging between booms and busts, and that
results in these price wings to compensate for the previous
you know, plethora of chips or diarth of chips. How
(02:59):
does the AI revolution change this dynamic?
Speaker 6 (03:03):
Yeah?
Speaker 4 (03:03):
No, And as I said before, really I want to
put emphasis on the fact that high bandwid memory demand
can strain the supply for other products, specifically with DRAM.
But DRAM now accounts for about eighty percent of sales
for the company, so it's vastly more important than what
we're seeing in NAND. But the other twenty percent of
sales in NAND, we're also seeing strength for enterprise solid
(03:24):
state drives, which are also important for AI. So yeah, look,
I mean I think historically we've seen cycles up cycles,
tend to last somewhere between seven to ten quarters, but
we're now extending beyond that. I mean, we're looking at,
based on the guidance last night, at least twelve quarters,
and then based on the potential for further increases in pricing,
(03:45):
it could extend all the way through the next fiscal
year at a minimum. So yeah, I mean, really, it's
just kind of an almost unprecedented situation, or at least not
something that we've seen in a very long time, and
it really just comes from structural tailments from AI, both
on demand, which is improving pricing via different products like
high bandwith memory, but also just because like I said before,
(04:08):
it's just constraining overall supply, and that's not just unique
to Micron, that's true for both ESK, Heinex, and Samsung
as well, and the three of them account for the
vast majority of DRAM demand in the industry and NAND
as well.
Speaker 5 (04:21):
Yeah, Drake, that's kind kind of where I want to go.
The competitive landscape period feels like there's again you mentioned
kind of three names there is that really kind of
what's driving Are those three companies driving this business?
Speaker 4 (04:32):
Yeah? Yeah, Yeah, So ESK Heinex has really had the
lead in high bandwidth memory, Micron has become sort of
a very fast follower, and now there's reports that Samsung
will be supplying into Nvidia's Blackwell Ultra platform, which might
pave the way into Rubin for them as well. So
I mean, I think this three company dynamic that we'd
seen for a very long time. Obviously you've had some
(04:54):
Chinese competitors come on, but this three company dynamic that
we so on traditional dram seems to be now shaping
up again for high bay with memory. So I think
those past, you know, dynamics that we've seen are going
to be the dynamics going forward again.
Speaker 1 (05:11):
Stay with us.
Speaker 5 (05:12):
More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this.
Speaker 1 (05:18):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live
weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android
Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever
you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube Now.
Speaker 2 (05:32):
Last night, Jimmy Kimmel returned to television a week after
the show was suspended by ABC. The late night host said, quote,
it was never my intention to make light of the
death of a young man he did receive a warm
reception from the audience. Kimmel made an impassioned case for
free speech. He poked fun at President Donald Trump and
the FCC chairman Brendan Carr. He also said that pressuring
(05:54):
affiliates to take his show off the air quote is
not legal, and quote is not a American this.
Speaker 5 (06:01):
Show, This show is not important. What is important is
that we get to live in a country that allows
us to have a show like this. I already thought,
Jimmy Kimmel last night on his return to TV, what
does this mean for the ABC Television network? What does
it mean for the Walt Disney company that owns ABC.
(06:23):
Let's check in Withkeitha Ranganath and Cheese. They media analysts
at Bloomberg Intelligencies based down there in Princeton. Hey, Keitha,
this late night Does it mean anything for the networks anymore?
Do they make any money there?
Speaker 6 (06:35):
They don't make a whole lot of money, pauls not anymore.
It's used to be that, you know, late night television
would bring in a lot of ratings, would bring in
a lot of ad dollars. That has really changed. We've
seen we've seen linear TV kind of hemorrhage viewers now
over so many years, and late night is no exception.
So if you just kind of look at, you know,
(06:56):
Jimmy Kimmel's show, for instance, it generates roughly about fifty
million dollar AD revenue. Compare that to a few years
ago when it used to generate close to about one
hundred and fifty million. So definitely AD revenue going down.
And most of these late night shows are losing money
just given the programming budget for these shows. So not
(07:16):
really a needle mover in a financial sense for Disney.
Speaker 2 (07:20):
Okay, but in a cultural sense, it is because these
are shows that define the networks. And so thank you
for putting numbers to that, because I think there's a
lot of concern or skepticism from certain corners of American
communities that question whether Stephen Colbert's show should have been
canceled for financial reasons, as CBS asserts it was. KEITHA.
(07:42):
Is ABC going to pay some kind of price for
allowing Kimmel to go back on air because the president,
for instance, alluded to making more money off the company
for doing.
Speaker 6 (07:50):
So, Yeah, it's certainly possible. I mean, we've seen President
Trump kind of go after you know, the broadcast networks
threatened to kind of revoke licenses, so he goes after anybody.
He uses his power, you know, the courts, to attack
anybody who says anything unflattering about him. But that's you know,
definitely possible from a Disney perspective, though. You have to
(08:11):
remember this is a very very diversified company. So yes,
ABC is definitely a very important asset. But again, if
you put some numbers around this scarlet, it makes up
only about they generate. Of Disney itself generates about ninety
to one hundred billion dollars in revenue every year. ABC
is about five billion, five to six billion in revenue,
(08:32):
so it's just about five percent for the company. So again,
you know, small potatoes in the context of the company's financials.
But yes, you bring up a very important point about
culture wars. Unfortunately, I think Disney is in a losing
position whichever way, because they're either going to anger you know,
the conservatives or or the other end of the spectrum.
So it's just tough.
Speaker 3 (08:54):
Yeah.
Speaker 5 (08:55):
Hey, Githa, I noted that two of the big TV
station groups out there, Sinclair Podcast Group and Next Are
they are still not airing Jimmy Kimmel, what's the latest there?
Can they do that? Or is there affiliate affiliation agreement
with the ABC networks? Now you got to cover it,
you got to carry it.
Speaker 6 (09:11):
So they you know, the FCC does allow, you know,
broadcast affiliate groups like next Door in Sinclair to preempt
certain programming if it deems fit. So from a legal standpoint, yes,
they are.
Speaker 5 (09:23):
Allowed to do that.
Speaker 6 (09:24):
Again, we're not sure of the exact contractual language between
Disney or next Door or Sinclair, So again, not sure
how long that's going to drag out. You know, Disney
is a very important partner for both Nexttar and Sinclair.
But remember there's much more here at stake than just
you know, Disney's affiliation agreement. Next Door is in the
(09:45):
midst of a six point two billion dollar deal to
acquire tech Now, which is another broadcaster. They do need
the FCC's blessing, and so they're you know, kind of
trying to really, you know, please the FCC here, if
you will, to kind of get a green green light
on that deal. Sinclair again a similar situation. There's a
whole wave of broadcast consolidation that's supposed to happen and
(10:06):
they all want to be on the FCC's right side.
Speaker 2 (10:10):
Very quickly, Geita. In the days following Kimmel suspension, a
number of people canceled or threatened to cancel their Disney
Plus streaming services. Do we have a sense that this
might get kind of noisy when it comes to the
earning supports and the streaming numbers and subscriptions.
Speaker 6 (10:24):
I mean, we've seen this kind of backlash before happen,
you know, in the case of certain programming and you
know with Netflix, with other streaming services. Typically we haven't
really seen it reflected in the numbers, even though there's
a lot of noise around it. So, yes, maybe a
little bit of up and down, but I don't think
it'll have again any big needle moving effect on the
Disney Plus subscriber numbers.
Speaker 5 (10:47):
All right, Keithan, Well we got you here. I have
to ask, do we have any news on succession to
Bob Biger?
Speaker 6 (10:51):
Hmmm, not yet, not yet, Paul. I mean, that's the
biggest question always for Disney. He is supposed to retire
by the end of twenty twenty six. There is a
lot of rumblings that it might be somebody internal, you know,
we keep hearing about Dana Walden. Of course, nothing certain
just yet.
Speaker 1 (11:10):
Stay with us.
Speaker 5 (11:11):
More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this.
Speaker 1 (11:17):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live
weekdays at ten am easterneed on Apple, Cocklay and Android
Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever
you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 5 (11:31):
That new housing starts came in way higher than expected.
Speaker 2 (11:35):
Fastest patient's early twenty two unexpected surge there.
Speaker 5 (11:39):
Yeah, absolutely see what's going on out there in the
new housing market, Drew reading Bloomberg Intelligence, US home building
analyst joins us. He's down there in Princeton, joining us
via that zoom thing, Drew. What's going on in the
new housing market?
Speaker 3 (11:51):
Yes, some pretty eye popping numbers today from the Census.
Scarlett mentioned the fastest pace since early twenty twenty two,
So I think you need to take these numbers with
a grain of salt. The report said that sales were
up twenty percent from last month plus or minus twenty
two percent, so maybe they were down, maybe they were
up a whole lot more.
Speaker 5 (12:11):
This is a this.
Speaker 3 (12:15):
Is a historically volatle data set, and it does contrast
with some of the recent data that we've had our
friends over a Zondhu track, about eighty five percent of
the new home market said sales were up low single
digits in the month, still lower from last year, and
if we look at applications to purchase new homes, they
were actually down six percent sequentially, which is more of
(12:37):
a leading indicator. And on top of that, we heard
from last week from the second largest home builder in
the market, Lenar, who said that they're having to take
their foot off the gas pedal in terms of volume
because the market's just not supporting it. They're still having
to incentivize buyers. So, you know, we do agree that
lower rates will certainly help demand, but we do we
think the market snapped back as strong as this report suggests.
Speaker 2 (13:00):
Probably not okay, So maybe the numbers will need to
be revised, and there's a trend here with numbers being
needing to be revised. But the no home sales numbers
overall reflect contract signings, which usually take place at least
a month before the transaction is complete, so it may
capture a little bit of the turn in the housing market.
Could this be the beginning of I don't want to say,
(13:21):
an upswing, but at least stabilization.
Speaker 5 (13:23):
So I think so.
Speaker 3 (13:24):
First of all, the pullback and rates during the month
of August was about ten basis points. We didn't really
see that dramatic shift lower until really in September when
rates got into the low six percent range. What's interesting
is that since the FED cut rates are actually up
twenty five basis points to about six point four percent,
which is kind of similar to what we saw the
(13:45):
last time the cut rates is the FED cut and
mortgage rates increased. Like I said, I do think that
lower rates are certainly going to help that marginal home buyer.
But at the same time, you know, when we talk
about housing, rates certainly get all of the attention because
of affordability constraints were under but I think you to
also focus on the labor market. We've had some pretty
(14:06):
large job revisions recently. We actually showed net loss in June,
and if you look at some of the survey data,
consumers out there have a growing concern about unemployment rates
over the next twelve months, and for those that do
lose a job, the expectation that they're going to be
able to find a new one within you know, the
next couple of months is not very strong. So one
(14:27):
of the things that we've heard repeatedly from the builders
is this lack of confidence which is holding buyers back.
So on the margin rates certainly help affordability, they don't
solve the problem. So we think it helps buyers on
the margin, but again I don't. I don't think broadly speaking,
this returns us back to, you know, a more normalized
level of transactions.
Speaker 1 (14:47):
This is the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,
and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each
weekday ten am to noon Eastern on Bloomberg dot com,
the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app.
You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube
and always on the Bloomberg terminal.
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the
Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am
heasterne on, Apple, Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg
Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts,
or watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 2 (00:24):
Right now, we want to go back to our Interactive
Broker studio and bring in one of our very own experts,
and he is, of course the expert on Micron, and
we want to talk about Micron because the stock is
lower today despite a beat and raised quarter. We do
have with us Jake Silverman of Bloomberg Intelligence. He's a
semiconductor analyst, and Jake, I wonder how much of this
(00:45):
disappointing price action today is tied to the fact that
the stock has had a blistering run in twenty twenty five,
more than doubling in value.
Speaker 3 (00:54):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (00:54):
No, I think it has a lot to do with
just very high expectations coming into the quarter. You know,
the stock being up ninety five percent year today going
into the report last night just had a lot.
Speaker 3 (01:07):
To do with it.
Speaker 4 (01:08):
But overall, look, I mean the fundamentals of the business
remained very strong. I think the commentary on the call
last night for management was very positive, and so I
think we're going to continue to see an up cycle
and memory at least for the near term.
Speaker 5 (01:22):
So what is the call here, what's the street looking
for for this name? Again, A stock's just as you mentioned,
ripped this year up ninety four percent year today. What's
the call here?
Speaker 4 (01:31):
Yeah, No, I mean, I think investors are really looking
at high bandwidth memory, they're looking at AI, they're looking
at data center related revenue. In the last fiscal year,
data center related revenue was fifty to six percent of sales.
So as demand continues for that, we also have to
keep in mind that you know, there's traditional products as
(01:53):
well that are an important part of the business that
includes smartphones and PCs. Investors really want to see continued
pricing strength. And as demand continues to grow for high
bandwidth memory, which is very important for AI, and as
capacity for that shifts over. Sorry, because capacity shifts over
to high bandwidth memory, it can further constrains the supply
(02:16):
because it has lower yields, it has larger die sizes,
so there's only so much capacity industry, and it's shifting
over in favor of AI. And that's just constraining supply
for traditional products, which given the supply and demand, the
importance of supplying demand balancing the industry, it would suggest
that as long as demand for AI continues to grow,
(02:36):
we'll see further pricing increases.
Speaker 2 (02:38):
So that's a lot of conditions. I mean, you talk
about memory chips, which Micron is the biggest US maker of.
We know that this business is kind of famous or
infamous really for merging between booms and busts, and that
results in these price wings to compensate for the previous
you know, plethora of chips or diarth of chips. How
(02:59):
does the AI revolution change this dynamic?
Speaker 6 (03:03):
Yeah?
Speaker 4 (03:03):
No, And as I said before, really I want to
put emphasis on the fact that high bandwid memory demand
can strain the supply for other products, specifically with DRAM.
But DRAM now accounts for about eighty percent of sales
for the company, so it's vastly more important than what
we're seeing in NAND. But the other twenty percent of
sales in NAND, we're also seeing strength for enterprise solid
(03:24):
state drives, which are also important for AI. So yeah, look,
I mean I think historically we've seen cycles up cycles,
tend to last somewhere between seven to ten quarters, but
we're now extending beyond that. I mean, we're looking at,
based on the guidance last night, at least twelve quarters,
and then based on the potential for further increases in pricing,
(03:45):
it could extend all the way through the next fiscal
year at a minimum. So yeah, I mean, really, it's
just kind of an almost unprecedented situation, or at least not
something that we've seen in a very long time, and
it really just comes from structural tailments from AI, both
on demand, which is improving pricing via different products like
high bandwith memory, but also just because like I said before,
(04:08):
it's just constraining overall supply, and that's not just unique
to Micron, that's true for both ESK, Heinex, and Samsung
as well, and the three of them account for the
vast majority of DRAM demand in the industry and NAND
as well.
Speaker 5 (04:21):
Yeah, Drake, that's kind kind of where I want to go.
The competitive landscape period feels like there's again you mentioned
kind of three names there is that really kind of
what's driving Are those three companies driving this business?
Speaker 4 (04:32):
Yeah? Yeah, Yeah, So ESK Heinex has really had the
lead in high bandwidth memory, Micron has become sort of
a very fast follower, and now there's reports that Samsung
will be supplying into Nvidia's Blackwell Ultra platform, which might
pave the way into Rubin for them as well. So
I mean, I think this three company dynamic that we'd
seen for a very long time. Obviously you've had some
(04:54):
Chinese competitors come on, but this three company dynamic that
we so on traditional dram seems to be now shaping
up again for high bay with memory. So I think
those past, you know, dynamics that we've seen are going
to be the dynamics going forward again.
Speaker 1 (05:11):
Stay with us.
Speaker 5 (05:12):
More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this.
Speaker 1 (05:18):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live
weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android
Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever
you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube Now.
Speaker 2 (05:32):
Last night, Jimmy Kimmel returned to television a week after
the show was suspended by ABC. The late night host said, quote,
it was never my intention to make light of the
death of a young man he did receive a warm
reception from the audience. Kimmel made an impassioned case for
free speech. He poked fun at President Donald Trump and
the FCC chairman Brendan Carr. He also said that pressuring
(05:54):
affiliates to take his show off the air quote is
not legal, and quote is not a American this.
Speaker 5 (06:01):
Show, This show is not important. What is important is
that we get to live in a country that allows
us to have a show like this. I already thought,
Jimmy Kimmel last night on his return to TV, what
does this mean for the ABC Television network? What does
it mean for the Walt Disney company that owns ABC.
(06:23):
Let's check in Withkeitha Ranganath and Cheese. They media analysts
at Bloomberg Intelligencies based down there in Princeton. Hey, Keitha,
this late night Does it mean anything for the networks anymore?
Do they make any money there?
Speaker 6 (06:35):
They don't make a whole lot of money, pauls not anymore.
It's used to be that, you know, late night television
would bring in a lot of ratings, would bring in
a lot of ad dollars. That has really changed. We've
seen we've seen linear TV kind of hemorrhage viewers now
over so many years, and late night is no exception.
So if you just kind of look at, you know,
(06:56):
Jimmy Kimmel's show, for instance, it generates roughly about fifty
million dollar AD revenue. Compare that to a few years
ago when it used to generate close to about one
hundred and fifty million. So definitely AD revenue going down.
And most of these late night shows are losing money
just given the programming budget for these shows. So not
(07:16):
really a needle mover in a financial sense for Disney.
Speaker 2 (07:20):
Okay, but in a cultural sense, it is because these
are shows that define the networks. And so thank you
for putting numbers to that, because I think there's a
lot of concern or skepticism from certain corners of American
communities that question whether Stephen Colbert's show should have been
canceled for financial reasons, as CBS asserts it was. KEITHA.
(07:42):
Is ABC going to pay some kind of price for
allowing Kimmel to go back on air because the president,
for instance, alluded to making more money off the company
for doing.
Speaker 6 (07:50):
So, Yeah, it's certainly possible. I mean, we've seen President
Trump kind of go after you know, the broadcast networks
threatened to kind of revoke licenses, so he goes after anybody.
He uses his power, you know, the courts, to attack
anybody who says anything unflattering about him. But that's you know,
definitely possible from a Disney perspective, though. You have to
(08:11):
remember this is a very very diversified company. So yes,
ABC is definitely a very important asset. But again, if
you put some numbers around this scarlet, it makes up
only about they generate. Of Disney itself generates about ninety
to one hundred billion dollars in revenue every year. ABC
is about five billion, five to six billion in revenue,
(08:32):
so it's just about five percent for the company. So again,
you know, small potatoes in the context of the company's financials.
But yes, you bring up a very important point about
culture wars. Unfortunately, I think Disney is in a losing
position whichever way, because they're either going to anger you know,
the conservatives or or the other end of the spectrum.
So it's just tough.
Speaker 3 (08:54):
Yeah.
Speaker 5 (08:55):
Hey, Githa, I noted that two of the big TV
station groups out there, Sinclair Podcast Group and Next Are
they are still not airing Jimmy Kimmel, what's the latest there?
Can they do that? Or is there affiliate affiliation agreement
with the ABC networks? Now you got to cover it,
you got to carry it.
Speaker 6 (09:11):
So they you know, the FCC does allow, you know,
broadcast affiliate groups like next Door in Sinclair to preempt
certain programming if it deems fit. So from a legal standpoint, yes,
they are.
Speaker 5 (09:23):
Allowed to do that.
Speaker 6 (09:24):
Again, we're not sure of the exact contractual language between
Disney or next Door or Sinclair, So again, not sure
how long that's going to drag out. You know, Disney
is a very important partner for both Nexttar and Sinclair.
But remember there's much more here at stake than just
you know, Disney's affiliation agreement. Next Door is in the
(09:45):
midst of a six point two billion dollar deal to
acquire tech Now, which is another broadcaster. They do need
the FCC's blessing, and so they're you know, kind of
trying to really, you know, please the FCC here, if
you will, to kind of get a green green light
on that deal. Sinclair again a similar situation. There's a
whole wave of broadcast consolidation that's supposed to happen and
(10:06):
they all want to be on the FCC's right side.
Speaker 2 (10:10):
Very quickly, Geita. In the days following Kimmel suspension, a
number of people canceled or threatened to cancel their Disney
Plus streaming services. Do we have a sense that this
might get kind of noisy when it comes to the
earning supports and the streaming numbers and subscriptions.
Speaker 6 (10:24):
I mean, we've seen this kind of backlash before happen,
you know, in the case of certain programming and you
know with Netflix, with other streaming services. Typically we haven't
really seen it reflected in the numbers, even though there's
a lot of noise around it. So, yes, maybe a
little bit of up and down, but I don't think
it'll have again any big needle moving effect on the
Disney Plus subscriber numbers.
Speaker 5 (10:47):
All right, Keithan, Well we got you here. I have
to ask, do we have any news on succession to
Bob Biger?
Speaker 6 (10:51):
Hmmm, not yet, not yet, Paul. I mean, that's the
biggest question always for Disney. He is supposed to retire
by the end of twenty twenty six. There is a
lot of rumblings that it might be somebody internal, you know,
we keep hearing about Dana Walden. Of course, nothing certain
just yet.
Speaker 1 (11:10):
Stay with us.
Speaker 5 (11:11):
More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this.
Speaker 1 (11:17):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live
weekdays at ten am easterneed on Apple, Cocklay and Android
Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever
you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 5 (11:31):
That new housing starts came in way higher than expected.
Speaker 2 (11:35):
Fastest patient's early twenty two unexpected surge there.
Speaker 5 (11:39):
Yeah, absolutely see what's going on out there in the
new housing market, Drew reading Bloomberg Intelligence, US home building
analyst joins us. He's down there in Princeton, joining us
via that zoom thing, Drew. What's going on in the
new housing market?
Speaker 3 (11:51):
Yes, some pretty eye popping numbers today from the Census.
Scarlett mentioned the fastest pace since early twenty twenty two,
So I think you need to take these numbers with
a grain of salt. The report said that sales were
up twenty percent from last month plus or minus twenty
two percent, so maybe they were down, maybe they were
up a whole lot more.
Speaker 5 (12:11):
This is a this.
Speaker 3 (12:15):
Is a historically volatle data set, and it does contrast
with some of the recent data that we've had our
friends over a Zondhu track, about eighty five percent of
the new home market said sales were up low single
digits in the month, still lower from last year, and
if we look at applications to purchase new homes, they
were actually down six percent sequentially, which is more of
(12:37):
a leading indicator. And on top of that, we heard
from last week from the second largest home builder in
the market, Lenar, who said that they're having to take
their foot off the gas pedal in terms of volume
because the market's just not supporting it. They're still having
to incentivize buyers. So, you know, we do agree that
lower rates will certainly help demand, but we do we
think the market snapped back as strong as this report suggests.
Speaker 2 (13:00):
Probably not okay, So maybe the numbers will need to
be revised, and there's a trend here with numbers being
needing to be revised. But the no home sales numbers
overall reflect contract signings, which usually take place at least
a month before the transaction is complete, so it may
capture a little bit of the turn in the housing market.
Could this be the beginning of I don't want to say,
(13:21):
an upswing, but at least stabilization.
Speaker 5 (13:23):
So I think so.
Speaker 3 (13:24):
First of all, the pullback and rates during the month
of August was about ten basis points. We didn't really
see that dramatic shift lower until really in September when
rates got into the low six percent range. What's interesting
is that since the FED cut rates are actually up
twenty five basis points to about six point four percent,
which is kind of similar to what we saw the
(13:45):
last time the cut rates is the FED cut and
mortgage rates increased. Like I said, I do think that
lower rates are certainly going to help that marginal home buyer.
But at the same time, you know, when we talk
about housing, rates certainly get all of the attention because
of affordability constraints were under but I think you to
also focus on the labor market. We've had some pretty
(14:06):
large job revisions recently. We actually showed net loss in June,
and if you look at some of the survey data,
consumers out there have a growing concern about unemployment rates
over the next twelve months, and for those that do
lose a job, the expectation that they're going to be
able to find a new one within you know, the
next couple of months is not very strong. So one
(14:27):
of the things that we've heard repeatedly from the builders
is this lack of confidence which is holding buyers back.
So on the margin rates certainly help affordability, they don't
solve the problem. So we think it helps buyers on
the margin, but again I don't. I don't think broadly speaking,
this returns us back to, you know, a more normalized
level of transactions.
Speaker 1 (14:47):
This is the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,
and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each
weekday ten am to noon Eastern on Bloomberg dot com,
the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app.
You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube
and always on the Bloomberg terminal.
Popular Podcasts
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.
Cardiac Cowboys
The heart was always off-limits to surgeons. Cutting into it spelled instant death for the patient. That is, until a ragtag group of doctors scattered across the Midwest and Texas decided to throw out the rule book. Working in makeshift laboratories and home garages, using medical devices made from scavenged machine parts and beer tubes, these men and women invented the field of open heart surgery. Odds are, someone you know is alive because of them. So why has history left them behind? Presented by Chris Pine, CARDIAC COWBOYS tells the gripping true story behind the birth of heart surgery, and the young, Greatest Generation doctors who made it happen. For years, they competed and feuded, racing to be the first, the best, and the most prolific. Some appeared on the cover of Time Magazine, operated on kings and advised presidents. Others ended up disgraced, penniless, and convicted of felonies. Together, they ignited a revolution in medicine, and changed the world.
The Joe Rogan Experience
The official podcast of comedian Joe Rogan.