May 22, 2025 • 26 mins
Watch Alix and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.
Bloomberg Intelligence hosted by Paul Sweeney and Alix Steel
Today’s Podcast Features are:
Michael Shepard, Bloomberg Senior Editor in Washington, discusses the House has passing President Donald Trump's signature tax bill, which would avert a year-end tax increase but add to the US debt burden, and the bill now heads to the Senate.
Mandeep Singh, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Tech Industry Analyst, discusses the Justice Department probing whether Google violated antitrust law with an agreement to use the artificial intelligence technology of Character.AI, a popular chatbot maker.
Walter Todd, President, Chief Investment Officer, and Managing Director at Greenwood Capital, discusses his outlook for the markets. Wall Street made a cautious comeback after a Treasury selloff, with stocks halting a slide amid a rebound in bonds and the dollar advancing.
Max Abelson, Bloomberg News Finance Reporter, and Annie Massa, Bloomberg Wealth Reporter, discuss the Bloomberg Big Take story: “Trumps Turn Presidency Into Most Lucrative Venture Yet.”
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the
Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am
Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.
Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch
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Speaker 2 (00:23):
The other news of the day, of course, is that
the House passes the big beautiful bill. Now it heads
to the Senate. Joining us now for more details on
that is Michael Shepherd, Bloomberg Senior editor in Washington. All Right,
what are the sticking points for the Republicans in the
Senate now?
Speaker 3 (00:41):
Well, what they're looking at are really the same sticking
points that had really caused such a fight in the House.
And the first is reservations about the overall long term
fiscal impact of the bill. There is a concern that
this will add significantly to deficits the Congressional Budget Office
founder would add as much as two point three trillion
(01:02):
dollars to deficits over the next ten years, and that
of course risks exacerbating what we've been seeing in the
bomb market, and that namely is concerned about ballooning US debt.
And that was all highlighted by Moody's decision last week
to downgrade the US government's credit rating. And the other
big concern, of course is Medicaid, and we've heard this
come up from some House members, and there was a
(01:26):
bit of a split. There were a handful of Conservatives
who really wanted significant cuts to the program that helps
the poor receive access to medical care with government support.
But there are others who were concerned about the impact
in their districts and their states, and the political fallout
in the Senate, concerns about the impact politically and on
healthcare in their states has been more vocal. We saw
(01:48):
Josh Wally, a key Republican who represents a more populous
wing of the party, expressing grave worries about what would
happen to Medicaid, especially in his state of Missouri. We're
going to be watching those two themes, both on the
fiscal side, but then also on what happens to that
key title program of Medicaid outs.
Speaker 4 (02:08):
Michael, what's the timing here for the Senate?
Speaker 5 (02:10):
We know the Speaker of the House said, hey, we're
going to get something done by Memorial Day.
Speaker 4 (02:14):
He did that. How about the Senate, what's their timetable?
Speaker 3 (02:17):
Well, Mike Johnson delivered with a big assist from Donald Trump,
who really drove lawmakers hard. He met with the Republican
Conference earlier in the week to say basically that anyone
who voted against the bill or failed to support it
and stood in its way, it would be guilty of
the ultimate betrayal and would pay the price in the
(02:40):
next congressional elections. In the Senate, it's a little bit
of a different ballgame. It's unclear that the leadership there
is as enthusiastic about the bill with that same sense
of timing. The Treasury Sectory, Scott Besson and the President
really would like this done by July fourth. That may
be a big ask. We're really a little bit more
(03:02):
than a month away. Wlawmakers are going out on Memorial
Day recess, and the Senate does want to make some changes.
They do face the deadline, though, Paul and Alex and
that is on the debt limit. The bill does contain
a measure that would raise the US borrowing limit and
help us avert that thing that we fear of a
US default. We're seeing an X state somewhere in August,
(03:25):
at least according to the Treasury Secretary so that gives
them a target to work for before their August recess.
But they do have a lot to get through, and
the President may have to do some arm twisting in
the Senate as well, just as he did in the House.
Speaker 2 (03:38):
So talking my book here, I was really interested that
they push forward the rollback for some of the clean
energy tax credits. So the Renewable Investment Tax Credit and
production tax credit is now going to be done in
twenty twenty eight rather than twenty twenty nine and twenty
thirty Yeah, twenty thirty one. And there are other parts
of that as well that have really put pressure on
the clean energy guys. A lot of the clean energy
(04:01):
projects are in red states, So how are Republican senators
going to manage that?
Speaker 3 (04:06):
Well, that's a great question, Alex, and it is something
that really divided the caucus in way because they do
like getting that money, and it's sort of the same
tension that we've seen in Republican and opposition from the
President himself to the Chips Act and some of that
funding and some of those subsidies. They like having the
projects in their state. Yet when they look at ways
to find savings for this pretty expensive tax bill. They
(04:29):
start looking for everything, and it's not only medicaid, but
as you mentioned, it is those clean energy projects and programs.
They're trying to say that, look, we're going to accelerate
the timeline, but not eliminate them entirely.
Speaker 4 (04:45):
There, Michael, thank you so much for joining us.
Speaker 5 (04:47):
Michael Shepherd, Senior editor, Bloomberg News, joining us from Washington, DC,
talking about some tax legislation, big big move forward today,
our President Trump in the House.
Speaker 1 (04:57):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Pod. Catch us live
weekdays at ten am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto
with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you
get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 5 (05:11):
Alextel Paul Swiney live here in on our Bloomberg Interactive
Studio streaming live on YouTube as well, and also on
that connected TV stuff think Roku and Samsung TV. If
you got that kind of stuff, you can get us.
Bloomberg Originals is kind of where you go find us there. Again,
the Justice Department is probing whether Alphabet's Google violated antitrust
law with an agreement to use the artificial intelligence technology
(05:33):
of a popular chat maker. According to people familiar with
than knowledge of the matter. It's not that they're probing
an acquisition.
Speaker 4 (05:40):
That they want to make. It's using somebody's technology. I
don't know.
Speaker 5 (05:44):
Stocks up three percent on news, It doesn't seem like
the market's that word. Man Deep seeing Hill, tell us
what's going on here? He covers all the technology stuff
for Bloomberg Intelligence mandeep.
Speaker 4 (05:52):
I mean usually the DJ comes in when you make
an acquisition and says who whoaahah.
Speaker 5 (05:58):
But this is just looking at a deal or a
contract they made with some AI provider.
Speaker 6 (06:04):
Yeah. I mean, in fact, all three of them, Google,
Microsoft and Amazon did this AQUI hires of these startups
back in twenty twenty four, So these were three different companies.
Google did that for Character AI. Microsoft had the same
sort of setup for Inflection, and then Amazon did it
(06:25):
for Adept, which is another small AI company. And if
you remember back at that time, Lena Khan was the force,
and you know, everyone was reluctant when it comes to
making these acquisitions. So this was their way of licensing
the technology. They were effectively paying a license fee and
(06:47):
in most cases it was non exclusive, but it ended
up basically bringing those employees to work for you know,
Google in a way where it wasn't an outright acquisition.
It was an independent company still, but they paid the
current shareholders of those companies a licensing fee which pretty
(07:08):
much was like sixty.
Speaker 4 (07:11):
Transaction lawyers working up at that.
Speaker 2 (07:14):
But how different is this from what say, Microsoft is
doing with open ai.
Speaker 6 (07:19):
Well, that's a forty nine percent stake one. And in
that case, in the case of Microsoft, you're right, I mean,
the comparison is app in the sense that OpenAI still
remains independent and they're launching their products. In this case,
a lot of the folks who were working at character
ai did end up working on Google's projects, and so
(07:44):
same thing with Microsoft. The folks at Inflection Ai did
end up working on Microsoft's projects. That didn't happen in
the case of open ai. Open ai still is kind
of doing its own thing when it comes to model
training and everything. Microsoft is licensing the technology. That's not
the case here in terms of character Ai, because character
(08:06):
ai was a company with less than two hundred employees
and Google end up licensing that for almost two point
five billion. So think of, you know, a license fee
of two point five billion.
Speaker 7 (08:18):
It feels yeah, yeah, And so.
Speaker 6 (08:23):
I think there was that aspect which was kind of
in between in terms of how do you make an
acqua hire without an outright acquisition, and you know, the
amount was pretty big and everyone was surprised, but all
these three companies did that one after the other, so
they somehow got away and now we are seeing the
(08:46):
DJA is looking into it.
Speaker 4 (08:47):
All right, if I'm.
Speaker 5 (08:48):
On sand Hill Road in Silicon Valley where all the
smart money is, how do I view this administration here?
Speaker 4 (08:54):
Are they pro tech or non pro tech?
Speaker 6 (08:57):
I think so far they are looking to bring down
the regulations. For sure. We have seen some pretty big
deals getting announced. I mean the Google's acquisition of wiz
that is a M and A thirty two billion dollars. Yes,
and so there has been a flurry of M and
A activities, so I would say they are pro deal making.
(09:20):
At the same time, I think with big tech, every
company is different in terms of you know, how the
administration views them, and you know, the DOJ and FTC
have been doing these investigations, so it doesn't surprise me
that they are looking into it. I doubt you know,
there will be a big fine, but probably you should
(09:41):
talk to genery or legal expert if yeah, what she
thinks about this.
Speaker 2 (09:45):
But you know, Paul pointing out that the stock is
up over three percent, how much of that is like
ignoring the headlines versus still going back to the AI
Developer Day for Google where they unveiled the whole suite
of products.
Speaker 6 (09:56):
Yeah, I mean that was a great event, and overall,
I think the sentiment this week is still Google's models
are getting better, their execution is getting better, They're shipping
a lot more products, So this seems to be something
that yes they are involved with. At the worst cases,
they may have to pay a fine, but really nothing
(10:18):
changes as far as their AI development efforts.
Speaker 5 (10:21):
When I started my career on the street in mid eighties,
it was all about Microsoft and their regulatory challenges they
were just starting to go through, primarily with European regulars,
and we were freaking out like every day, like oh
my god, it's gonna be And then we look back
on it ten years later, we're like, Eh, nothing happened.
And I think a whole generation of us have kind
of become conditioned to viewing big tech and regulation is
(10:43):
not that big a deal. Don't worry about it. At
the end, I wonder if we're getting too complacent, though,
will they ever say Amazon breakup, Google breakupper, you know,
one of those things.
Speaker 6 (10:53):
I mean, there's always a probability of that happening. I
still think it's a low probability event, given everyone wants
these companies to do better than the equivalent Chinese companies,
and so that aspect still remains. And look, the worst
case with these sort of investigations is these companies may
(11:13):
end up paying a fine. That's what we have seen
in the EU. Google has paid over you know, ten
billion dollars in fines and the stock will still be
okay because this is just one time. They make the
remedies and you move on. So I think that's the
worst case here in terms of a slap on the wrist,
and you know, you change the behavior. You're not gonna
do more aqua hires like that, you know, billion dollar aquahires.
(11:36):
But beyond that, it's hard to fathom.
Speaker 5 (11:39):
All right, Bendep, thank you so much for appreciate a
man deep seeing senior tech analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence.
Speaker 1 (11:45):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live
weekdays at ten am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto
with the Bloomberg Business App, Listen on demand wherever you
get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 2 (11:59):
All Right, Walter as President, chief investment officer and managing
director at Greenwood Capital. I got to say, the markets
are a little surprising to me. But just take a
look at the bond market for a second. Is the
long end getting yippie?
Speaker 8 (12:13):
Yeah, that's a good that's a nice technical term for it.
Speaker 4 (12:17):
Get a little.
Speaker 8 (12:18):
Skintish maybe another way to describe it. You know, the
twenty year auction yesterday. You know, you definitely look at
the intry day chart and saw the equities key off
of that twenty years, a little bit of an unusual maturity.
The FED owns a ton of that sleeve. So not
that surprising perhaps, but I know everybody's focused on that
thirty year behind rate, but it was really the ten year.
(12:38):
It's really the ten year that's key. I mean, that's
what a lot of assets are priced off of. So
that's a touch lower today, and you see equities kind
of key and off of that.
Speaker 5 (12:46):
So those rates are pretty attractive here, Todd, are you
getting increased discussions with your clients about, hey, should I
be up in my allocation.
Speaker 4 (12:54):
To fixed income.
Speaker 5 (12:55):
If I can get a two year treasury at four percent,
I would take maybe a little bit more duration risk
and get you know, more than five percent on a
thirty year.
Speaker 8 (13:05):
Not we're not going out of that far, but a
lot of our accounts are balanced accounts, so we do
have fixed income exposure within that. You know, our kind
of target maturity or duration is in that call it
three to four year range, but that's a bar bell.
So some you know, one and two year paper as
well as some you know, maybe five out to seven,
but nothing really longer than that. So you you know,
(13:25):
these are attractive vials, as you say, if you put
a corporate spread on top of that, which have come
in lately but still decent, you can lock in some
good rates for a multi year period, which we we
find attractive. Now, interestingly, you've got several corporate issuers that
are rated above the US government debt at this point,
JP Morgan being one of them, J and J another,
And the credit default swaps for the US government are
(13:48):
actually higher than they are for JP Morgan at the moment,
so there's a balancing act there between the two.
Speaker 2 (13:54):
What do you if you kind of ignored the last
two months, you'd be kind of no worse off unless're
taling about the bond market or to the dollar than
you would have been before. So how do you then
understand equity market volatility going forward?
Speaker 8 (14:10):
Yeah, Alex is a great question, and the equity market
volatility has been extreme over that. You know, if you've
gone under a rock, like you say, two months ago
and come out now, you're basically break even. I think
we're going to continue to see volatility, and I think
it's going to be keyed off some of these macro headlines,
whether that's you know, something affecting interest rates, whether it's
this bill that has now moved out of the House
(14:30):
into the Senate, which by the way, this is the
end of the beginning, now of the beginning of the
end in my opinion, in this process. And then also
finally earnings, I mean we kind of forget about fundamentals
of individual companies. They actually came in a bit better
than expected in the first quarter, but revisions did come
down quite significantly for the second quarter. So I think
(14:50):
depending on the time of the year, the month we're in,
and where we're going to key off of macro headlines,
or fundamental headlines, and then we had the trade component
as well, So all of those things mixed together to
we think, continue some volatility, but you know, take advantage
of that where you have companies that you you know,
know and understand and feel like are going to weather
the storm.
Speaker 4 (15:10):
Walter, what do you make of this the stock market?
Speaker 5 (15:12):
It seemingly we've round tripped almost here off of the
twenty percent declines we had our earlier New Year when
people were really trying to get their handle around what
a world of tariffs means. Are we appropriately priced here?
Do you think the market's ahead of itself or is
there still upside here?
Speaker 4 (15:27):
Do you think?
Speaker 8 (15:28):
Yeah? I think I think in the near term the markets,
you know, come a long way in a very short
period of time and is probably as Jamie Dimond I
think use the term complacent to describe investors. We would
tend to agree with that. Where we are today, I
don't think we're pricing in a lot of risks. We're
pricing in a lot of deals that have been talked
about happening but haven't happened on the trade front yet.
(15:49):
So what we've been doing is just trying to stay
disciplined on our sizing within positions, so names that have
run significantly in the past five to six weeks. If
we have a target of two and a half percent
and that weights now well over three percent, we're running
that back to model as we call it for example.
So just trying to stay disciplined within the process and
you know, take advantage of the move that we've had
(16:09):
and look kind of reload for some more opportunities to
come if.
Speaker 2 (16:14):
We do get this big, beautiful bill of passed, I mean,
get tax cuts or tax cuts extension if we wind
up getting deregulation and the Fed, as William said earlier today,
could cut in July. If tariffs come down to ten percent.
Is this like a complete then bull market? Like, can
we finally look towards discounting all that good news?
Speaker 7 (16:36):
Yeah? This is last to me.
Speaker 8 (16:38):
Yeah no, but I mean there's a long way from
here to there. I guess I would say, you know,
so as it relates to the FED, I think it's
a stretch to say that we go in July, because
you got to think about all this this bill includes,
you know, is kind of pro growth post stimulus that's
going to create upward pressure on prices. You would think
if if growth improves, so I think the Fed's going
(17:00):
to be on hold, so I don't think they're going
to come into the picture, probably till the fall. But yeah, no, listen,
if you incrementally get this bill passed, the debt ceiling increased,
if you get some trade deals, you know, we're gonna
run up on that ninety day first wind ninety day
window in early July. So we've got to see some
progress there. But yeah, it could create the catalyst to
for us to move up through those highs that we
hit in February and beyond. I just think between now
(17:23):
and then we could see some you know, some downside.
Speaker 4 (17:27):
Walter, thanks so much for joining us.
Speaker 5 (17:28):
Always appreciate getting a few minutes of your time.
Speaker 4 (17:29):
Walter Todd.
Speaker 5 (17:30):
He's a president, chief estiment officer, and managing director at
Greenwood Capital, located in Greenwood, South Carolina, which I googled.
A little bit west of Columbia, South Carolina, a little
bit north of Augusta, Georgia, a little bit south of Greenwood,
a Greek Greenville, South Carolina's right back in.
Speaker 4 (17:46):
The middle of the great.
Speaker 5 (17:47):
State of South Carolina. Some good stuff down there.
Speaker 1 (17:51):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live
weekdays at ten am Eastern on Applecarcklay and Android Auto
with the Bloombergs. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts,
or watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 2 (18:05):
This is Bloomberg Intelligence Radio. We bring you all the
top news and business, economics and finance through our lens
of our Bloomberg Intelligence folks. We also cover all the
great news that comes out of Bloomberg and every day
we try and hit the big take story. It's a
deep dive into some of the pressing issues of our time,
and today is no different. We're joined now in the
studio by Max Abelson and Anni Massa from Bloomberg News.
(18:27):
They had an in depth piece about Trump's President Trump's
families money making machine. What is the money making machine?
Speaker 7 (18:37):
Max?
Speaker 9 (18:37):
You know, if it were able, if we were able
to put it into one word or one line, we
really would have. Unfortunately, it does take like four thousand
words to describe.
Speaker 7 (18:46):
Because the machine is really, really big.
Speaker 9 (18:49):
I think the way what we ended up deciding is
that no modern American president has ever positioned his family
to make this much money while in the White House.
You can't you can't oversimplify it either as a supporter
or is a critic. You can't say, oh, what he's
doing is crypto, or oh, what he's doing is licensing
his name, or oh what he's doing is going overseas,
(19:10):
or what what the family is doing is making corporate connections.
Speaker 7 (19:15):
That it really is.
Speaker 9 (19:16):
We ended up thinking about this as basically an atlas,
an outlass to what the Trump family is doing.
Speaker 7 (19:22):
You know, it's to take it seriously and to really
focus on.
Speaker 9 (19:27):
The facts and on the numbers and on the places.
It was real work, and I was and I was actually,
dare I say.
Speaker 7 (19:34):
Even fun to work with Anyon. I'm trying to figure
it out.
Speaker 5 (19:36):
Hey there, So Annie, I mean, is this I guess
part of the question is depending on Hey, you look
at it.
Speaker 4 (19:42):
Is this legal? Is it ethical? What are the folks
in Washington saying?
Speaker 10 (19:48):
Well, when when you look at the scale of what's happening.
Even just today, President Trump has announced that he's going
to allow the largest holders of his meme coin to
come to a special VIP event. So one of the
challenges of working on the story was that almost week
by week there would be new details to add. And
(20:11):
I think what Max and I found was that to
go through each of these different categories. We covered real estate,
we covered crypto, we covered this kind of grab bag
of other ventures that the Trump family has become involved in,
you have to go really deep into each one, and
there's a high velocity of new deals coming now. From
(20:36):
the ethical standpoint, what the Trump family has decided to
do is they've issued an ethics plan for Trump's second term,
as they did in his first term. The way that
they've handled it is by putting President Trump's assets in
a trust which is overseen by his son, Donald Trump Junior.
But there are some differences in the ethics plan of
(20:58):
Trump's first term and his second term this time around.
Speaker 4 (21:01):
As we note in.
Speaker 10 (21:02):
The story, the ban on new foreign deals that existed
last time is no longer in place, and you can
see the new deals popping up all the time.
Speaker 9 (21:14):
I found it very liberating, actually, to in our work,
rather than putting ourselves in a position where we wanted
to say Trump is the most amazing president and everything
he does is amazing, or being in a position where
we have to say Trump is the worst president and
everything he does is illegal. What we tried to do
is just to understand peace by piece the way the
family is making money, and it was helpful to just
(21:35):
use Trump's own words and own plan. Last time around,
in the first administration, he was unwilling for the family to.
Speaker 7 (21:42):
Do new deals around the world.
Speaker 9 (21:45):
This time the family is embracing deals around the world,
and by their own account, what they're not allowing is
deals with foreign governments. And when Andy and I look closely,
what we found is that there are some deals, especially
in Oman especially and Cutter, that really test the.
Speaker 7 (22:04):
Edge of that agreement. They are with arms of governments.
Speaker 9 (22:07):
Now it may not necessarily be the Trump organization doing
these deals. Sometimes their entities kind of in between. There's
this one developer called dar Global. So what we're hoping
listeners out there will do is read our story because
we really tried to vary carefully and without kind of
without doing anything but the facts. Just really tried to
understand everything about this money making machine.
Speaker 2 (22:29):
So how much of this money making machine are real
deals based on like properties and hotels, and how much
of it are like NFTs and capitalizing more on this
on the celebrity that is President Trump.
Speaker 9 (22:42):
It would be so bad to pick one or the other.
And he pointed out that is the mean coin dinner
literally tonight Chinese. Second, that's literally tonight.
Speaker 2 (22:49):
That's why your story came out see the newspag there.
Speaker 9 (22:51):
But there's so many other things too. Annie was really
good in particular at finding like these new corporate connections.
Speaker 7 (22:57):
Yeah. One thing.
Speaker 10 (22:59):
So it's kind of a everyone kind of knows that
Trump real Estate Empire has in many ways moved for
a long time, been moving toward licensing the Trump brand
for hotels and developments. That's a big that's a big
part of what they do now. But what's new or
in the second term, is you see his sons, Eric
(23:20):
Trump and Donald Trump Junior joining the boards of companies
both private and public, and lending the name in a
way to those companies. And what tends to happen when
they join, either in an executive role or as advisors is,
at least in the case of public companies, sometimes the
(23:41):
share price of those companies will go flying. So it
shows the celebrity to your point and name that they
that they bring into the business world into all these
different ventures, including in crypto, but in other realms too,
like prediction markets.
Speaker 9 (23:57):
And to be fair, what Donald Trump Junior will say.
And what he said to us is, I'm a private citizen.
I've been a businessman all my life. It's ridiculous to
expect me to stop doing what I do just because
my dad is president.
Speaker 7 (24:08):
And then what Donald.
Speaker 9 (24:09):
Trump will say, a White House Pokesverson said to us
is I'm transparent and I handed over this multi billion
dollar empire to serve our country. The White House described
at President Trump as making a great sacrifice. I think
it's really helpful, though, to just look at the numbers,
and I just want to quickly mention what we found
is that the Trump name is powering more than ten
(24:30):
billion dollars of real estate projects since the re election
campaign began. A multi billion dollar valuation for the social
media company, a money losing social media company that just
went public. I mean, you forget it went public last year,
plus the money from crypto, plus the money from corporate connections.
I think it's worth taking the time to kind of
wrap your arms around it, because it really is sort
of I guess, unlike anything I've ever reported on.
Speaker 5 (24:52):
Again, what I noticed is in this reporting that the
first overseas strict President Trump made in his second term
as to the Middle East and I'm just looking at
your reporting here, and when you talk about the real estate,
it's Riad, it's Jetta, it's Oman, it's.
Speaker 4 (25:07):
You know, simi Isma, which I don't know where that is.
I think it's cutter cutter. So there I see the
you know, the connection.
Speaker 5 (25:13):
You know, does it make sense that he this first
overseas trip would be to the Middle East?
Speaker 4 (25:17):
So interesting? Any masset Max Abelson reporters Bloomberg News.
Speaker 5 (25:21):
This is the big take story here today, the Trump's
family money making machine again as Max and and he
reported more than ten billion dollars of deals announced since
his re election got started. Here.
Speaker 1 (25:35):
This is the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,
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Speaker 2 (00:23):
The other news of the day, of course, is that
the House passes the big beautiful bill. Now it heads
to the Senate. Joining us now for more details on
that is Michael Shepherd, Bloomberg Senior editor in Washington. All Right,
what are the sticking points for the Republicans in the
Senate now?
Speaker 3 (00:41):
Well, what they're looking at are really the same sticking
points that had really caused such a fight in the House.
And the first is reservations about the overall long term
fiscal impact of the bill. There is a concern that
this will add significantly to deficits the Congressional Budget Office
founder would add as much as two point three trillion
(01:02):
dollars to deficits over the next ten years, and that
of course risks exacerbating what we've been seeing in the
bomb market, and that namely is concerned about ballooning US debt.
And that was all highlighted by Moody's decision last week
to downgrade the US government's credit rating. And the other
big concern, of course is Medicaid, and we've heard this
come up from some House members, and there was a
(01:26):
bit of a split. There were a handful of Conservatives
who really wanted significant cuts to the program that helps
the poor receive access to medical care with government support.
But there are others who were concerned about the impact
in their districts and their states, and the political fallout
in the Senate, concerns about the impact politically and on
healthcare in their states has been more vocal. We saw
(01:48):
Josh Wally, a key Republican who represents a more populous
wing of the party, expressing grave worries about what would
happen to Medicaid, especially in his state of Missouri. We're
going to be watching those two themes, both on the
fiscal side, but then also on what happens to that
key title program of Medicaid outs.
Speaker 4 (02:08):
Michael, what's the timing here for the Senate?
Speaker 5 (02:10):
We know the Speaker of the House said, hey, we're
going to get something done by Memorial Day.
Speaker 4 (02:14):
He did that. How about the Senate, what's their timetable?
Speaker 3 (02:17):
Well, Mike Johnson delivered with a big assist from Donald Trump,
who really drove lawmakers hard. He met with the Republican
Conference earlier in the week to say basically that anyone
who voted against the bill or failed to support it
and stood in its way, it would be guilty of
the ultimate betrayal and would pay the price in the
(02:40):
next congressional elections. In the Senate, it's a little bit
of a different ballgame. It's unclear that the leadership there
is as enthusiastic about the bill with that same sense
of timing. The Treasury Sectory, Scott Besson and the President
really would like this done by July fourth. That may
be a big ask. We're really a little bit more
(03:02):
than a month away. Wlawmakers are going out on Memorial
Day recess, and the Senate does want to make some changes.
They do face the deadline, though, Paul and Alex and
that is on the debt limit. The bill does contain
a measure that would raise the US borrowing limit and
help us avert that thing that we fear of a
US default. We're seeing an X state somewhere in August,
(03:25):
at least according to the Treasury Secretary so that gives
them a target to work for before their August recess.
But they do have a lot to get through, and
the President may have to do some arm twisting in
the Senate as well, just as he did in the House.
Speaker 2 (03:38):
So talking my book here, I was really interested that
they push forward the rollback for some of the clean
energy tax credits. So the Renewable Investment Tax Credit and
production tax credit is now going to be done in
twenty twenty eight rather than twenty twenty nine and twenty
thirty Yeah, twenty thirty one. And there are other parts
of that as well that have really put pressure on
the clean energy guys. A lot of the clean energy
(04:01):
projects are in red states, So how are Republican senators
going to manage that?
Speaker 3 (04:06):
Well, that's a great question, Alex, and it is something
that really divided the caucus in way because they do
like getting that money, and it's sort of the same
tension that we've seen in Republican and opposition from the
President himself to the Chips Act and some of that
funding and some of those subsidies. They like having the
projects in their state. Yet when they look at ways
to find savings for this pretty expensive tax bill. They
(04:29):
start looking for everything, and it's not only medicaid, but
as you mentioned, it is those clean energy projects and programs.
They're trying to say that, look, we're going to accelerate
the timeline, but not eliminate them entirely.
Speaker 4 (04:45):
There, Michael, thank you so much for joining us.
Speaker 5 (04:47):
Michael Shepherd, Senior editor, Bloomberg News, joining us from Washington, DC,
talking about some tax legislation, big big move forward today,
our President Trump in the House.
Speaker 1 (04:57):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Pod. Catch us live
weekdays at ten am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto
with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you
get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 5 (05:11):
Alextel Paul Swiney live here in on our Bloomberg Interactive
Studio streaming live on YouTube as well, and also on
that connected TV stuff think Roku and Samsung TV. If
you got that kind of stuff, you can get us.
Bloomberg Originals is kind of where you go find us there. Again,
the Justice Department is probing whether Alphabet's Google violated antitrust
law with an agreement to use the artificial intelligence technology
(05:33):
of a popular chat maker. According to people familiar with
than knowledge of the matter. It's not that they're probing
an acquisition.
Speaker 4 (05:40):
That they want to make. It's using somebody's technology. I
don't know.
Speaker 5 (05:44):
Stocks up three percent on news, It doesn't seem like
the market's that word. Man Deep seeing Hill, tell us
what's going on here? He covers all the technology stuff
for Bloomberg Intelligence mandeep.
Speaker 4 (05:52):
I mean usually the DJ comes in when you make
an acquisition and says who whoaahah.
Speaker 5 (05:58):
But this is just looking at a deal or a
contract they made with some AI provider.
Speaker 6 (06:04):
Yeah. I mean, in fact, all three of them, Google,
Microsoft and Amazon did this AQUI hires of these startups
back in twenty twenty four, So these were three different companies.
Google did that for Character AI. Microsoft had the same
sort of setup for Inflection, and then Amazon did it
(06:25):
for Adept, which is another small AI company. And if
you remember back at that time, Lena Khan was the force,
and you know, everyone was reluctant when it comes to
making these acquisitions. So this was their way of licensing
the technology. They were effectively paying a license fee and
(06:47):
in most cases it was non exclusive, but it ended
up basically bringing those employees to work for you know,
Google in a way where it wasn't an outright acquisition.
It was an independent company still, but they paid the
current shareholders of those companies a licensing fee which pretty
(07:08):
much was like sixty.
Speaker 4 (07:11):
Transaction lawyers working up at that.
Speaker 2 (07:14):
But how different is this from what say, Microsoft is
doing with open ai.
Speaker 6 (07:19):
Well, that's a forty nine percent stake one. And in
that case, in the case of Microsoft, you're right, I mean,
the comparison is app in the sense that OpenAI still
remains independent and they're launching their products. In this case,
a lot of the folks who were working at character
ai did end up working on Google's projects, and so
(07:44):
same thing with Microsoft. The folks at Inflection Ai did
end up working on Microsoft's projects. That didn't happen in
the case of open ai. Open ai still is kind
of doing its own thing when it comes to model
training and everything. Microsoft is licensing the technology. That's not
the case here in terms of character Ai, because character
(08:06):
ai was a company with less than two hundred employees
and Google end up licensing that for almost two point
five billion. So think of, you know, a license fee
of two point five billion.
Speaker 7 (08:18):
It feels yeah, yeah, And so.
Speaker 6 (08:23):
I think there was that aspect which was kind of
in between in terms of how do you make an
acqua hire without an outright acquisition, and you know, the
amount was pretty big and everyone was surprised, but all
these three companies did that one after the other, so
they somehow got away and now we are seeing the
(08:46):
DJA is looking into it.
Speaker 4 (08:47):
All right, if I'm.
Speaker 5 (08:48):
On sand Hill Road in Silicon Valley where all the
smart money is, how do I view this administration here?
Speaker 4 (08:54):
Are they pro tech or non pro tech?
Speaker 6 (08:57):
I think so far they are looking to bring down
the regulations. For sure. We have seen some pretty big
deals getting announced. I mean the Google's acquisition of wiz
that is a M and A thirty two billion dollars. Yes,
and so there has been a flurry of M and
A activities, so I would say they are pro deal making.
(09:20):
At the same time, I think with big tech, every
company is different in terms of you know, how the
administration views them, and you know, the DOJ and FTC
have been doing these investigations, so it doesn't surprise me
that they are looking into it. I doubt you know,
there will be a big fine, but probably you should
(09:41):
talk to genery or legal expert if yeah, what she
thinks about this.
Speaker 2 (09:45):
But you know, Paul pointing out that the stock is
up over three percent, how much of that is like
ignoring the headlines versus still going back to the AI
Developer Day for Google where they unveiled the whole suite
of products.
Speaker 6 (09:56):
Yeah, I mean that was a great event, and overall,
I think the sentiment this week is still Google's models
are getting better, their execution is getting better, They're shipping
a lot more products, So this seems to be something
that yes they are involved with. At the worst cases,
they may have to pay a fine, but really nothing
(10:18):
changes as far as their AI development efforts.
Speaker 5 (10:21):
When I started my career on the street in mid eighties,
it was all about Microsoft and their regulatory challenges they
were just starting to go through, primarily with European regulars,
and we were freaking out like every day, like oh
my god, it's gonna be And then we look back
on it ten years later, we're like, Eh, nothing happened.
And I think a whole generation of us have kind
of become conditioned to viewing big tech and regulation is
(10:43):
not that big a deal. Don't worry about it. At
the end, I wonder if we're getting too complacent, though,
will they ever say Amazon breakup, Google breakupper, you know,
one of those things.
Speaker 6 (10:53):
I mean, there's always a probability of that happening. I
still think it's a low probability event, given everyone wants
these companies to do better than the equivalent Chinese companies,
and so that aspect still remains. And look, the worst
case with these sort of investigations is these companies may
(11:13):
end up paying a fine. That's what we have seen
in the EU. Google has paid over you know, ten
billion dollars in fines and the stock will still be
okay because this is just one time. They make the
remedies and you move on. So I think that's the
worst case here in terms of a slap on the wrist,
and you know, you change the behavior. You're not gonna
do more aqua hires like that, you know, billion dollar aquahires.
(11:36):
But beyond that, it's hard to fathom.
Speaker 5 (11:39):
All right, Bendep, thank you so much for appreciate a
man deep seeing senior tech analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence.
Speaker 1 (11:45):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live
weekdays at ten am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto
with the Bloomberg Business App, Listen on demand wherever you
get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 2 (11:59):
All Right, Walter as President, chief investment officer and managing
director at Greenwood Capital. I got to say, the markets
are a little surprising to me. But just take a
look at the bond market for a second. Is the
long end getting yippie?
Speaker 8 (12:13):
Yeah, that's a good that's a nice technical term for it.
Speaker 4 (12:17):
Get a little.
Speaker 8 (12:18):
Skintish maybe another way to describe it. You know, the
twenty year auction yesterday. You know, you definitely look at
the intry day chart and saw the equities key off
of that twenty years, a little bit of an unusual maturity.
The FED owns a ton of that sleeve. So not
that surprising perhaps, but I know everybody's focused on that
thirty year behind rate, but it was really the ten year.
(12:38):
It's really the ten year that's key. I mean, that's
what a lot of assets are priced off of. So
that's a touch lower today, and you see equities kind
of key and off of that.
Speaker 5 (12:46):
So those rates are pretty attractive here, Todd, are you
getting increased discussions with your clients about, hey, should I
be up in my allocation.
Speaker 4 (12:54):
To fixed income.
Speaker 5 (12:55):
If I can get a two year treasury at four percent,
I would take maybe a little bit more duration risk
and get you know, more than five percent on a
thirty year.
Speaker 8 (13:05):
Not we're not going out of that far, but a
lot of our accounts are balanced accounts, so we do
have fixed income exposure within that. You know, our kind
of target maturity or duration is in that call it
three to four year range, but that's a bar bell.
So some you know, one and two year paper as
well as some you know, maybe five out to seven,
but nothing really longer than that. So you you know,
(13:25):
these are attractive vials, as you say, if you put
a corporate spread on top of that, which have come
in lately but still decent, you can lock in some
good rates for a multi year period, which we we
find attractive. Now, interestingly, you've got several corporate issuers that
are rated above the US government debt at this point,
JP Morgan being one of them, J and J another,
And the credit default swaps for the US government are
(13:48):
actually higher than they are for JP Morgan at the moment,
so there's a balancing act there between the two.
Speaker 2 (13:54):
What do you if you kind of ignored the last
two months, you'd be kind of no worse off unless're
taling about the bond market or to the dollar than
you would have been before. So how do you then
understand equity market volatility going forward?
Speaker 8 (14:10):
Yeah, Alex is a great question, and the equity market
volatility has been extreme over that. You know, if you've
gone under a rock, like you say, two months ago
and come out now, you're basically break even. I think
we're going to continue to see volatility, and I think
it's going to be keyed off some of these macro headlines,
whether that's you know, something affecting interest rates, whether it's
this bill that has now moved out of the House
(14:30):
into the Senate, which by the way, this is the
end of the beginning, now of the beginning of the
end in my opinion, in this process. And then also
finally earnings, I mean we kind of forget about fundamentals
of individual companies. They actually came in a bit better
than expected in the first quarter, but revisions did come
down quite significantly for the second quarter. So I think
(14:50):
depending on the time of the year, the month we're in,
and where we're going to key off of macro headlines,
or fundamental headlines, and then we had the trade component
as well, So all of those things mixed together to
we think, continue some volatility, but you know, take advantage
of that where you have companies that you you know,
know and understand and feel like are going to weather
the storm.
Speaker 4 (15:10):
Walter, what do you make of this the stock market?
Speaker 5 (15:12):
It seemingly we've round tripped almost here off of the
twenty percent declines we had our earlier New Year when
people were really trying to get their handle around what
a world of tariffs means. Are we appropriately priced here?
Do you think the market's ahead of itself or is
there still upside here?
Speaker 4 (15:27):
Do you think?
Speaker 8 (15:28):
Yeah? I think I think in the near term the markets,
you know, come a long way in a very short
period of time and is probably as Jamie Dimond I
think use the term complacent to describe investors. We would
tend to agree with that. Where we are today, I
don't think we're pricing in a lot of risks. We're
pricing in a lot of deals that have been talked
about happening but haven't happened on the trade front yet.
(15:49):
So what we've been doing is just trying to stay
disciplined on our sizing within positions, so names that have
run significantly in the past five to six weeks. If
we have a target of two and a half percent
and that weights now well over three percent, we're running
that back to model as we call it for example.
So just trying to stay disciplined within the process and
you know, take advantage of the move that we've had
(16:09):
and look kind of reload for some more opportunities to
come if.
Speaker 2 (16:14):
We do get this big, beautiful bill of passed, I mean,
get tax cuts or tax cuts extension if we wind
up getting deregulation and the Fed, as William said earlier today,
could cut in July. If tariffs come down to ten percent.
Is this like a complete then bull market? Like, can
we finally look towards discounting all that good news?
Speaker 7 (16:36):
Yeah? This is last to me.
Speaker 8 (16:38):
Yeah no, but I mean there's a long way from
here to there. I guess I would say, you know,
so as it relates to the FED, I think it's
a stretch to say that we go in July, because
you got to think about all this this bill includes,
you know, is kind of pro growth post stimulus that's
going to create upward pressure on prices. You would think
if if growth improves, so I think the Fed's going
(17:00):
to be on hold, so I don't think they're going
to come into the picture, probably till the fall. But yeah, no, listen,
if you incrementally get this bill passed, the debt ceiling increased,
if you get some trade deals, you know, we're gonna
run up on that ninety day first wind ninety day
window in early July. So we've got to see some
progress there. But yeah, it could create the catalyst to
for us to move up through those highs that we
hit in February and beyond. I just think between now
(17:23):
and then we could see some you know, some downside.
Speaker 4 (17:27):
Walter, thanks so much for joining us.
Speaker 5 (17:28):
Always appreciate getting a few minutes of your time.
Speaker 4 (17:29):
Walter Todd.
Speaker 5 (17:30):
He's a president, chief estiment officer, and managing director at
Greenwood Capital, located in Greenwood, South Carolina, which I googled.
A little bit west of Columbia, South Carolina, a little
bit north of Augusta, Georgia, a little bit south of Greenwood,
a Greek Greenville, South Carolina's right back in.
Speaker 4 (17:46):
The middle of the great.
Speaker 5 (17:47):
State of South Carolina. Some good stuff down there.
Speaker 1 (17:51):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live
weekdays at ten am Eastern on Applecarcklay and Android Auto
with the Bloombergs. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts,
or watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 2 (18:05):
This is Bloomberg Intelligence Radio. We bring you all the
top news and business, economics and finance through our lens
of our Bloomberg Intelligence folks. We also cover all the
great news that comes out of Bloomberg and every day
we try and hit the big take story. It's a
deep dive into some of the pressing issues of our time,
and today is no different. We're joined now in the
studio by Max Abelson and Anni Massa from Bloomberg News.
(18:27):
They had an in depth piece about Trump's President Trump's
families money making machine. What is the money making machine?
Speaker 7 (18:37):
Max?
Speaker 9 (18:37):
You know, if it were able, if we were able
to put it into one word or one line, we
really would have. Unfortunately, it does take like four thousand
words to describe.
Speaker 7 (18:46):
Because the machine is really, really big.
Speaker 9 (18:49):
I think the way what we ended up deciding is
that no modern American president has ever positioned his family
to make this much money while in the White House.
You can't you can't oversimplify it either as a supporter
or is a critic. You can't say, oh, what he's
doing is crypto, or oh, what he's doing is licensing
his name, or oh what he's doing is going overseas,
(19:10):
or what what the family is doing is making corporate connections.
Speaker 7 (19:15):
That it really is.
Speaker 9 (19:16):
We ended up thinking about this as basically an atlas,
an outlass to what the Trump family is doing.
Speaker 7 (19:22):
You know, it's to take it seriously and to really
focus on.
Speaker 9 (19:27):
The facts and on the numbers and on the places.
It was real work, and I was and I was actually,
dare I say.
Speaker 7 (19:34):
Even fun to work with Anyon. I'm trying to figure
it out.
Speaker 5 (19:36):
Hey there, So Annie, I mean, is this I guess
part of the question is depending on Hey, you look
at it.
Speaker 4 (19:42):
Is this legal? Is it ethical? What are the folks
in Washington saying?
Speaker 10 (19:48):
Well, when when you look at the scale of what's happening.
Even just today, President Trump has announced that he's going
to allow the largest holders of his meme coin to
come to a special VIP event. So one of the
challenges of working on the story was that almost week
by week there would be new details to add. And
(20:11):
I think what Max and I found was that to
go through each of these different categories. We covered real estate,
we covered crypto, we covered this kind of grab bag
of other ventures that the Trump family has become involved in,
you have to go really deep into each one, and
there's a high velocity of new deals coming now. From
(20:36):
the ethical standpoint, what the Trump family has decided to
do is they've issued an ethics plan for Trump's second term,
as they did in his first term. The way that
they've handled it is by putting President Trump's assets in
a trust which is overseen by his son, Donald Trump Junior.
But there are some differences in the ethics plan of
(20:58):
Trump's first term and his second term this time around.
Speaker 4 (21:01):
As we note in.
Speaker 10 (21:02):
The story, the ban on new foreign deals that existed
last time is no longer in place, and you can
see the new deals popping up all the time.
Speaker 9 (21:14):
I found it very liberating, actually, to in our work,
rather than putting ourselves in a position where we wanted
to say Trump is the most amazing president and everything
he does is amazing, or being in a position where
we have to say Trump is the worst president and
everything he does is illegal. What we tried to do
is just to understand peace by piece the way the
family is making money, and it was helpful to just
(21:35):
use Trump's own words and own plan. Last time around,
in the first administration, he was unwilling for the family to.
Speaker 7 (21:42):
Do new deals around the world.
Speaker 9 (21:45):
This time the family is embracing deals around the world,
and by their own account, what they're not allowing is
deals with foreign governments. And when Andy and I look closely,
what we found is that there are some deals, especially
in Oman especially and Cutter, that really test the.
Speaker 7 (22:04):
Edge of that agreement. They are with arms of governments.
Speaker 9 (22:07):
Now it may not necessarily be the Trump organization doing
these deals. Sometimes their entities kind of in between. There's
this one developer called dar Global. So what we're hoping
listeners out there will do is read our story because
we really tried to vary carefully and without kind of
without doing anything but the facts. Just really tried to
understand everything about this money making machine.
Speaker 2 (22:29):
So how much of this money making machine are real
deals based on like properties and hotels, and how much
of it are like NFTs and capitalizing more on this
on the celebrity that is President Trump.
Speaker 9 (22:42):
It would be so bad to pick one or the other.
And he pointed out that is the mean coin dinner
literally tonight Chinese. Second, that's literally tonight.
Speaker 2 (22:49):
That's why your story came out see the newspag there.
Speaker 9 (22:51):
But there's so many other things too. Annie was really
good in particular at finding like these new corporate connections.
Speaker 7 (22:57):
Yeah. One thing.
Speaker 10 (22:59):
So it's kind of a everyone kind of knows that
Trump real Estate Empire has in many ways moved for
a long time, been moving toward licensing the Trump brand
for hotels and developments. That's a big that's a big
part of what they do now. But what's new or
in the second term, is you see his sons, Eric
(23:20):
Trump and Donald Trump Junior joining the boards of companies
both private and public, and lending the name in a
way to those companies. And what tends to happen when
they join, either in an executive role or as advisors is,
at least in the case of public companies, sometimes the
(23:41):
share price of those companies will go flying. So it
shows the celebrity to your point and name that they
that they bring into the business world into all these
different ventures, including in crypto, but in other realms too,
like prediction markets.
Speaker 9 (23:57):
And to be fair, what Donald Trump Junior will say.
And what he said to us is, I'm a private citizen.
I've been a businessman all my life. It's ridiculous to
expect me to stop doing what I do just because
my dad is president.
Speaker 7 (24:08):
And then what Donald.
Speaker 9 (24:09):
Trump will say, a White House Pokesverson said to us
is I'm transparent and I handed over this multi billion
dollar empire to serve our country. The White House described
at President Trump as making a great sacrifice. I think
it's really helpful, though, to just look at the numbers,
and I just want to quickly mention what we found
is that the Trump name is powering more than ten
(24:30):
billion dollars of real estate projects since the re election
campaign began. A multi billion dollar valuation for the social
media company, a money losing social media company that just
went public. I mean, you forget it went public last year,
plus the money from crypto, plus the money from corporate connections.
I think it's worth taking the time to kind of
wrap your arms around it, because it really is sort
of I guess, unlike anything I've ever reported on.
Speaker 5 (24:52):
Again, what I noticed is in this reporting that the
first overseas strict President Trump made in his second term
as to the Middle East and I'm just looking at
your reporting here, and when you talk about the real estate,
it's Riad, it's Jetta, it's Oman, it's.
Speaker 4 (25:07):
You know, simi Isma, which I don't know where that is.
I think it's cutter cutter. So there I see the
you know, the connection.
Speaker 5 (25:13):
You know, does it make sense that he this first
overseas trip would be to the Middle East?
Speaker 4 (25:17):
So interesting? Any masset Max Abelson reporters Bloomberg News.
Speaker 5 (25:21):
This is the big take story here today, the Trump's
family money making machine again as Max and and he
reported more than ten billion dollars of deals announced since
his re election got started. Here.
Speaker 1 (25:35):
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Crime Junkie
Does hearing about a true crime case always leave you scouring the internet for the truth behind the story? Dive into your next mystery with Crime Junkie. Every Monday, join your host Ashley Flowers as she unravels all the details of infamous and underreported true crime cases with her best friend Brit Prawat. From cold cases to missing persons and heroes in our community who seek justice, Crime Junkie is your destination for theories and stories you won’t hear anywhere else. Whether you're a seasoned true crime enthusiast or new to the genre, you'll find yourself on the edge of your seat awaiting a new episode every Monday. If you can never get enough true crime... Congratulations, you’ve found your people. Follow to join a community of Crime Junkies! Crime Junkie is presented by audiochuck Media Company.