May 29, 2025 • 20 mins
Watch Alix and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.
Bloomberg Intelligence hosted by Paul Sweeney and Alix Steel
Today’s Podcast Features are:
Nathan Dean, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Policy Analyst, discusses the latest on President Trump’s tariffs. A US court has blocked many of President Trump's tariffs on imports from dozens of countries, declaring them illegal and throwing his tariff strategy into turmoil.
Janet Lorin, Bloomberg Higher Education Finance Reporter, discusses the latest news at Harvard University. The Trump administration is targeting Ivy League universities, particularly Harvard, by casting them as ideologically biased and focused on promoting global elite ideas at the expense of US interests.
Matt Stucky, Vice President, Chief Portfolio Manager Equities, at Northwestern Mutual, discusses his outlook for the markets. Matt thinks the Fed’s trajectory of 2+ cuts could get pushed out if tariffs ultimately cause upward pressure on inflation without a material impact on the labor market. Matt also comments on Nvidia earnings.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the
Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am
Eastern on Applecarclay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.
Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch
us live on YouTube.
Speaker 2 (00:23):
Alex Steel, Paul Sweeney, We're live here in our Bloomberg
Interactive Broker Studio. We're streaming live on YouTube as well
as check us out. There a lot going on as
it does as it seems to be every single day
from a policy perspective, news flow coming out of the
White House fast and furious. That's why we check in
with our next guest almost every day, Nathan Dean, senior
policy analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. He's responsible for all this, folks.
(00:45):
So if you want to complain to somebody, to go
to Nathan Dean. Nathan, what is kind of the latest
feeling within DC as to how this tariff situation may unfold?
Here to now that the courts are starting to weigh in?
Speaker 3 (00:59):
So I think the Washington and started taking the approach
that you know, this terrif fight is not over. Obviously,
the courts have said that you know, President Trump's authority
on AEPA or this International Emergency Economic Powers Act is
somewhat limited, and obviously we'll see that play out at
the Supreme Court later this week. But you know, President
Trump has other tools in his tool belt. Now I'll
say things like section one twenty two or three thirty
(01:20):
eight or three ZHO one. But what you need to
know is President Trump does have the authority under one
twenty two to implement a fifteen percent tariff right away
up to one hundred and fifty days. Three thirty eight
can go up to a fifty percent tariff. Now this
three oh one two thirty two that requires investigations. Where
I'm going at with this is that there are other
tools that President Trump has.
Speaker 4 (01:39):
To implement these tariffs.
Speaker 3 (01:40):
And so the courts came down on AEPA, and that's
certainly that court case is going to play out. But
if the White House decides to retreat and says, you
know what, let's go about a different avenue here. And
this is what Peter Navarro hinted at when he spoke
earlier on Bloomberg Television. You know, they can certainly reinstitute
these tariffs. It's just going to have to go through
a different process. The good news for investors though, is
that the pro is usually a little bit more transparent
(02:02):
than President Trump just implementing these via truth.
Speaker 5 (02:05):
Social Does it matter, How does this read through to
say the budget deficit, because raising revenue through tariffs was
like a big part of that bill.
Speaker 4 (02:16):
So it doesn't really impact it all that much.
Speaker 3 (02:18):
So Congress is trying to actually pass this one big,
beautiful bill, and they've known in the back of their
minds that this tariff discussion is taking place, but it's
not in the record, it's not part of the calculations
of that bill.
Speaker 4 (02:30):
So you know, it's almost like.
Speaker 3 (02:32):
They're just keeping in the back of the mind and said, Okay,
maybe we're going to be able to support this. But
if you take out all the tariff for revenue and
you just presume that we're not going to collect anything else,
Congress is still going.
Speaker 4 (02:41):
To pass this bill.
Speaker 3 (02:42):
You know, the Republicans are fairly aligned with President Trump
when it comes to extending these tax cuts and also
for these additional one point five trillion dollars in taxes
in terms of like no taxes on tips, no taxes
on overtime.
Speaker 4 (02:54):
Et cetera.
Speaker 3 (02:54):
So the cost proportion of it is there, but I
don't think Congress is really going to pay attention to it.
Speaker 4 (02:59):
They're going to still pass this thing.
Speaker 2 (03:02):
So what's the status of this tax bill? I mean
just timing wise talked about getting lost in the clutter
of the news here. Where are we with the timing here?
Speaker 3 (03:13):
Yeah, so the White House wants this passed by the
fourth of July. It's obviously past the House. It's now
over in the Senate. Now the Senate is out this week,
there's been discussions among staffers of trying to figure out
what in.
Speaker 4 (03:23):
The House will pass what's known as the Bird rule.
Speaker 3 (03:26):
Essentially, are there provisions of this House bill that just
won't work through the process of reconciliation.
Speaker 4 (03:31):
Now, I don't think that really is all that important to.
Speaker 3 (03:33):
The tax or the Medicaid or to the Inflation Reduction
Act portion. But next week we should see the Senators
come back and we'll start to see discussions of what
are they going to pair back from the House bill,
things like Medicaid work requirements, you know they would kick
in under at the end of twenty twenty six that
potentially geld get pushed.
Speaker 4 (03:49):
Back very important to solar investors.
Speaker 3 (03:52):
The Inflation Reduction Act, some of that language could also
get paired back.
Speaker 4 (03:55):
We'll probably see that play out.
Speaker 3 (03:57):
Over the next two to three weeks, and then I
think the Senate, if they had all their ducks aligned,
would try and go for a vote, probably by mid
to late June. But I don't be surprised if this
just leads back another couple weeks and we see this
in July.
Speaker 5 (04:09):
Elon Musk apparently Ditch and d C didn't like the
bureaucracy going to go back to his company. What does
that do for DOGE, for cost cutting, for anything.
Speaker 3 (04:19):
So there's two really aspects of the DOGE that's really
important to investors, and that's obviously you know, what is
the federal government spending outside of this one big beautiful
bill aka the appropriations process? Now Bloomberg Government actually put
out a piece this morning. They have a really cool
chart in there that shows you the government expenditures by
agency for the month of May for twenty twenty five
versus twenty twenty four, and the agencies are spending almost
(04:41):
about half of what they spent last year. So DOGE
has definitely done an importance. You know, the influence in
terms of getting agencies to spend less. But ultimately it
is Congress that needs to decide what the appropriations is
and what is to spend here. That's going to come
up in September, but it's also going to come up
in a recision package. The White House will most likely
(05:02):
send you to the House next week and they'll say, look,
we want to codify a lot of these Doge cuts.
Speaker 4 (05:07):
We need you to pass this.
Speaker 3 (05:09):
I would say, though, even though the filibuster isn't subject
to this, so just it requires a majority vote the House.
Speaker 4 (05:13):
In the Senate, a lot of.
Speaker 3 (05:15):
Times policymakers are like, look, I love the idea of
cutting federal waste on paper, but a lot of that
federal waste is also going to buy my district. So
I'm not sure this package will continue or it will pass.
And I will say, just at least at a first glance,
we're not seeing many market impacts to this recisions package.
Speaker 2 (05:32):
All right, I'm just looking at some BI litigation. We
have some folks in Bloomberg Intelligence that just look at
litigation because it impacts industries and impacts companies, and sure enough,
tariffs are first and foremost here. BI litigation analysis thinks
there's a sixty percent chance the Supreme Court will side
with the Court's ruling and that teriffs may exceed the
(05:54):
President's authority, but it will be very close. So that
seems to be what President Trump and this administration are
betting on that they can get this past the court.
Speaker 4 (06:04):
Yeah, you know, so that obviously, you.
Speaker 3 (06:06):
Know that's my colleagues, and my colleague Holly from is
the one that's leading this effort. She's actually chatting with
clients as we speak. But I will say that I
was talking to her prior to coming on air, and
she said that if the Supreme Court were to come
out and say we are going to take up this
case and potentially implement at stay, that could be indicative
of their thinking going forward, because you know the red
line that you showed before I came on the air,
(06:27):
talked about how the Supreme Court could potentially take this
up this week. If we see signs from the Supreme
Court that they're somewhat amicable to fast tracking this ultimately,
it could be beneficial.
Speaker 4 (06:38):
Now still it's very close to call.
Speaker 3 (06:40):
But Holly's original timeline is that if the Supreme Court
says that they're not going to take it up, and
this actually may have to go through the court appeals
and so forth. You would see an ultimate decision on
this in the fourth quarter of this year.
Speaker 5 (06:50):
What kind of questions are clients asking me right now,
Like the world really changed in the last couple of weeks,
Where do they asking you the most?
Speaker 3 (06:57):
Well, obviously with today, you know, it's the tear for
news and how our companies preparing for this are tariff's
off as we speak, you know, And our response to
that is obviously, you know, the White House has the
ability to re appeal.
Speaker 4 (07:07):
They have appealed.
Speaker 3 (07:09):
But really it's just the future of what President Trump
wants to do in terms of tariffs.
Speaker 4 (07:13):
Obviously there was discussion yesterday the taco.
Speaker 3 (07:16):
Trade, if you will, And what I will say is
that President Trump truly believes in tariffs. He still believes
in them. He believes them as a point of leverage
and a point of negotiation. And so whether or not
it's using AEPA or Section three oh one or Section
two thirty two, tariffs are here to stay, and they're
most likely here to stay for the next four years.
But are you getting a tariff like one hundred and
forty five percent tariff on China or are you getting
(07:38):
a ten percent tariff on the United Kingdom. Those are
the questions that the clients want to know, and we'll
see that play out.
Speaker 4 (07:43):
Over the next few weeks and months.
Speaker 2 (07:45):
And Nathan, I can't help but notice that the Democrats
are awfully, awfully quiet these days. They've been since the
beginning of President Trump's administration. And my understanding was, yes,
they're a minority, but not by much and those razors,
wh's a majority for the Republicans. It doesn't feel that
way from the Democrats. It might overthinking then.
Speaker 3 (08:06):
No, actually, the Democrats are somewhat irrelevant when it comes
to tariff's.
Speaker 4 (08:09):
And also the One Big Beautiful Bill.
Speaker 3 (08:11):
Because tariffs, President Trump is doing this via executive authority,
so the Democrats aren't involved. And when it comes to
the One Big Beautiful Bill, they're doing it via reconciliation,
which bypasses the Democrats. But the Democrats will be able
to start to fight back later this year because once
the Big Beautiful Bill passes, that's.
Speaker 4 (08:27):
About it for Congress.
Speaker 3 (08:29):
And so come September you're gonna have things like the
government funding or a government shutdown, and so forth, and
the Democrats are really going to try and start positioning
themselves for next year. It's just that the Republicans are
using procedures and processes at the moment that bypasses them,
and as a result, Democrats are really struggling to figure
out how to combat that.
Speaker 6 (08:48):
All right, Nathan, really appreciate it.
Speaker 5 (08:49):
Thank you very much, Nathan Dean, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior policy analyst.
He's definitely really busy, but I feel like maybe things have.
Speaker 6 (08:56):
Calmed down a little bit for him.
Speaker 4 (08:57):
Yeah, and he's relative from what this breadth.
Speaker 2 (09:01):
Of knowledge is just amazes me about how all that
stuff works.
Speaker 1 (09:05):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live
weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple, Cocklay, and Android
Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever
you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 5 (09:19):
Let's get more on where we are with Harvard and
President Trump. I'm the latest evolution of this drama. Janet Lauren,
higher education finance reporter. I joins us now from Bloomberry.
I didn't think you probably didn't think you'd be this
busy in this particular way.
Speaker 6 (09:33):
All right, what's the latest well the latest well right now,
commencement is going on.
Speaker 4 (09:39):
Okay, so that's the speakers this year.
Speaker 7 (09:43):
Yesterday, i believe it for the class date was Kareem
Abdul Jabbar for the undergraduate cool. So you know, this
should be in some ways a really happy celebratory time
for Harvard, which it is, and especially for students and
their parents and their grandparent parents who welcome.
Speaker 6 (10:01):
But just like last year, there is a palpable.
Speaker 7 (10:04):
Tension at Harvard around graduation. Last year the question of protests.
Speaker 6 (10:10):
What was going to happen an animal rights.
Speaker 7 (10:13):
Activist through glitter on President Alan Garber during the ceremony.
Speaker 6 (10:17):
And today, you.
Speaker 7 (10:18):
Know, there is also a very palpable tension, but it's
a very different one, especially with international students, because it's
unclear what their fate is. It appeared that yesterday the
State Department has perhaps widened that ban on visas regarding
all all those with Chinese affiliations at Harvard. It keeps
(10:41):
things keep changing. It's hard to keep track on what's
actually happening. But but today, you know, should be a
happy day for the students at Harvard.
Speaker 2 (10:51):
Harvard it just feels again I have zero affiliation with Harvard.
They're being targeted here by this administration visa VI Ivy
League schools or the University of Texas or the University
of Florida or anything like that.
Speaker 7 (11:06):
Do we know why, Well, Harvard is the biggest prize
out there.
Speaker 6 (11:11):
It's you know, we've talked about this before.
Speaker 7 (11:12):
It's the oldest university in America, it predates the country.
It's the richest school with a fifty three billion dollar endowment.
And in some ways it's more symbolic. What else if
you want to make a point, everybody in the world
knows the brand of Harvard very powerful, you know, almost
in some ways like a luxury good, especially when viewed overseas.
(11:35):
And yesterday President Trump talked in the Oval Office about
Harvard should cap the number of foreign students at fifteen percent.
It's more like twenty seven percent now, and I think
that number is surprising to a lot of people, that
these campuses have almost more than a quarter of the
students are from other countries.
Speaker 5 (11:54):
Well to that point, there is a headline that the
Harvard case judge is now expanding the block of president
comes foreign student ban. Does that imply that more foreign
students get to stay on are allowed to sort of
stay at Harvard or apply to be at Harvard.
Speaker 7 (12:10):
Well, keep in mind that just because the judge has
blocked something doesn't mean if you're a student, you're going
to be making decisions based on what's going to happen
over the next two years or four years, and you
want to be able to stay and complete your education.
Speaker 6 (12:26):
And I have to think, oh my god, I have
to transfer.
Speaker 7 (12:29):
I have to find a place that has an open
spot and would take me.
Speaker 2 (12:33):
And you know, with my affiliation with Duke University, I
saw this at the board level the first Trump administration,
and now again it's the exact same thing is happening.
Speaker 7 (12:41):
Now.
Speaker 2 (12:41):
They're seeing it drop in applications and interests from foreign
students because they just don't know what the situation is
going to be a week from now, a year from now,
three years from now. All they know is I don't
feel as welcomed as I thought I would or I'm
going to need to be. So I'm going to look
to Canada, I'm going to look to Europe and things
like that. Hell hard, do you think Harvard really is going.
Speaker 4 (13:02):
To fight this?
Speaker 2 (13:02):
Do you think just all of these things across the whole.
I guess, you know, panically what's going on.
Speaker 7 (13:08):
Well, Harvard has already filed two lawsuits. The first one
was in April in response to a letter that the
administration made lots of demands, and Harvard doesn't disagree with
some of the things the government is asking for, but
it does disagree in the way that it is going
about it. So Harvard also has to feel like it's
(13:30):
supporting its constituency, the students.
Speaker 6 (13:34):
They have to show that they're supporting the students.
Speaker 7 (13:36):
And I think in some ways the Harvard faculty has
never felt more unified. You know, there's lots of different
factions there. Certainly the humanities faculty are not going to
agree with some things that the that the science faculty
and priorities, But in some ways this has unified them
and perhaps alumni because they somebody is standing up to
(14:01):
Trump and Harvard is a very rich entity.
Speaker 4 (14:05):
Jenet, fascinating.
Speaker 2 (14:06):
I'm sure going to be talking to you more in
the future regarding this and other topics in higher education.
Janet Lauren, higher education financial reporter for Bloomberg News, joining
us live here in our interactive Growker's studio.
Speaker 1 (14:19):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live
weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android
Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever
you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 2 (14:33):
Let's go to match. Docky, chief portfolio manager for Equity said.
He said, Northwestern Mutual Wealth out there in Milwaukee, pound
for pound, some of the best money managers.
Speaker 6 (14:42):
In the world a Milwaukee.
Speaker 2 (14:42):
I have no idea. Why, Matt, what do you make
of this market? I mean, we were down twenty percent,
we've retraced much of that decline, and now you're to date,
we're basically unched on the year.
Speaker 4 (14:53):
Where do we go from here?
Speaker 8 (14:56):
Well, good morning, thanks for having me back. Look, I mean,
I think the market's like they stay pretty volatile. You know,
while you know we've round tripped, you know, the Terriff
and Duce losses in April, by no means that we
have the woods, just in terms of the uncertainty that
still remains in terms of what trade policy is going
to look like a month or two or three from now.
(15:17):
And so you know days like today where you have
really strong arrange reports after the clothes you know from
the video kind of carrying the open higher and then
kind of with sawing back down. I think you are
kind of par for the course. Is we kind of
think through kind of how markets should behave from now
to the end of the year, just given you know,
certainly that still remains.
Speaker 5 (15:35):
So when it comes to Nvidia, is this the ballance
that we are all hoping for? Like does that really
help unleash animal spirits or is that just confirmation and
everything's okay?
Speaker 6 (15:45):
But that's harder for upside.
Speaker 8 (15:47):
Yeah, for Navidia specifically, I think what's unusual about to
set up into the print was you know, this was
one of these times where the video was somewhat cheap
relative to expectations, and so it comes into the question
whether or not, you know, the buyside and salesite we're
mismatched in terms of where those expectations sat, and you know, just.
Speaker 4 (16:08):
Kind of get into it a little bit deeper.
Speaker 8 (16:11):
You know, back in April and the video traded south
of one hundred dollars a share, and if you believe
kind of the base case that a lot of cell
side shops are pitching you know, we're talking you know,
six dollars plus per share in counter your twenty twenty
six in terms of earnings per share. That makes na
Vidia sub s and P five hundred multiple name and
(16:35):
you know that's where kind of the stock was heading
into the print. Of course, it had kind of rebounded
with the rest of the market in April, but Navidia
had historically had always traded thirty five forty times forward
earnings and it was sub twenty and so you know,
this has just been a little bit of a sigh
relief if you're in the video shareholder that the growth
story is still intact and some of the concerns about
(16:56):
supply chains and being able to really ramp up you know,
rack scale black roll systems in the back half of
this year, it seemed to be in the rear view mayor.
Speaker 2 (17:07):
So Matt does the Nvidia results last night a little
bit better than expected. That that give kind of a
green light for tech broadly defined here is that can
that can can tech continue to be a leader in
this market?
Speaker 8 (17:18):
Well, if Navida doesn't work with in tech, what else
is really going to work with in tech?
Speaker 4 (17:22):
So and it should.
Speaker 8 (17:24):
Probably be a little bit a little more specific with
that within semic inductors level were just going to keep
it to that kind of industry. Look, how many companies
can you point to that have to sacrifice ten and
a half billion dollars for the pigh margin revenue over
two quarters in the form of base twenty revenue still
outperform the overall market on a year of date and
one year basis. There's not a whole lot of them,
(17:45):
And the video is the only one that I can
think of that's been able.
Speaker 4 (17:48):
To clear that hurdle.
Speaker 8 (17:51):
But you know, I think if we kind of also
think about the setup into the quarter, you're kind of
clearing some of the China uncertainly by just kind of
removing the revenue piece altogether for them specifically, That's not
the case for the rest of technology. There's still terror
related concerns for a lot of other names within tech.
Navidia is just kind of already kind of pass that,
(18:12):
and we'll probably have to see some others also pass
that into the future.
Speaker 5 (18:16):
So we got this trade ruling and then we got
in Vidia. Does this clear the runway for the S
and P and now test again record highs or is
it too early to call that?
Speaker 8 (18:27):
You know, I think it's too early to necessarily, you know,
believe that you know, the trade related and teriff related
fears are behind us. You know, while a lot of
the terriffs were rescinded via the quarter over last night,
the other avenues to restoring those tariff levels, whether we're
talking about Section two seventy two, which is still in
front of us, or some other of the authorities that
(18:50):
the President has to restore the tariff levels country by country.
So you know, that uncertainy from my perspective, still remains.
And and so you know, the runway from here, I
think is is really just a function of kind of
how the labor market holds in. We see sentiment data
really bounce around quite a bit, you know, with the
consumer with you know, the April second announcement kind of
(19:12):
really plunging consumer and business confidence, but then it's starting
to ramp back up a little bit during the Instagram period.
If we're looking at the April credit card data or
what we've seen from the Chase card data in the
weeks of May that you know, sour sentiment on the
consumer level hasn't really translated to changing spending behavior. In fact,
(19:32):
it's kind of been a little bit better than expected
and at least in line with trend level growth that
we saw earlier in this year. And so while consumers
are telling us that you know, they're they're anxious about
kind of the outlook, yeah, that isn't affecting their behavior
and that's that's ultimately what drives startings.
Speaker 5 (19:49):
All right, good stuff. Really appreciate that you, right, Matt,
Matt Stuck you vice president, chief portfolio manager of Equities
at Northwestern a Mutual.
Speaker 1 (19:56):
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Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the
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Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch
us live on YouTube.
Speaker 2 (00:23):
Alex Steel, Paul Sweeney, We're live here in our Bloomberg
Interactive Broker Studio. We're streaming live on YouTube as well
as check us out. There a lot going on as
it does as it seems to be every single day
from a policy perspective, news flow coming out of the
White House fast and furious. That's why we check in
with our next guest almost every day, Nathan Dean, senior
policy analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. He's responsible for all this, folks.
(00:45):
So if you want to complain to somebody, to go
to Nathan Dean. Nathan, what is kind of the latest
feeling within DC as to how this tariff situation may unfold?
Here to now that the courts are starting to weigh in?
Speaker 3 (00:59):
So I think the Washington and started taking the approach
that you know, this terrif fight is not over. Obviously,
the courts have said that you know, President Trump's authority
on AEPA or this International Emergency Economic Powers Act is
somewhat limited, and obviously we'll see that play out at
the Supreme Court later this week. But you know, President
Trump has other tools in his tool belt. Now I'll
say things like section one twenty two or three thirty
(01:20):
eight or three ZHO one. But what you need to
know is President Trump does have the authority under one
twenty two to implement a fifteen percent tariff right away
up to one hundred and fifty days. Three thirty eight
can go up to a fifty percent tariff. Now this
three oh one two thirty two that requires investigations. Where
I'm going at with this is that there are other
tools that President Trump has.
Speaker 4 (01:39):
To implement these tariffs.
Speaker 3 (01:40):
And so the courts came down on AEPA, and that's
certainly that court case is going to play out. But
if the White House decides to retreat and says, you
know what, let's go about a different avenue here. And
this is what Peter Navarro hinted at when he spoke
earlier on Bloomberg Television. You know, they can certainly reinstitute
these tariffs. It's just going to have to go through
a different process. The good news for investors though, is
that the pro is usually a little bit more transparent
(02:02):
than President Trump just implementing these via truth.
Speaker 5 (02:05):
Social Does it matter, How does this read through to
say the budget deficit, because raising revenue through tariffs was
like a big part of that bill.
Speaker 4 (02:16):
So it doesn't really impact it all that much.
Speaker 3 (02:18):
So Congress is trying to actually pass this one big,
beautiful bill, and they've known in the back of their
minds that this tariff discussion is taking place, but it's
not in the record, it's not part of the calculations
of that bill.
Speaker 4 (02:30):
So you know, it's almost like.
Speaker 3 (02:32):
They're just keeping in the back of the mind and said, Okay,
maybe we're going to be able to support this. But
if you take out all the tariff for revenue and
you just presume that we're not going to collect anything else,
Congress is still going.
Speaker 4 (02:41):
To pass this bill.
Speaker 3 (02:42):
You know, the Republicans are fairly aligned with President Trump
when it comes to extending these tax cuts and also
for these additional one point five trillion dollars in taxes
in terms of like no taxes on tips, no taxes
on overtime.
Speaker 4 (02:54):
Et cetera.
Speaker 3 (02:54):
So the cost proportion of it is there, but I
don't think Congress is really going to pay attention to it.
Speaker 4 (02:59):
They're going to still pass this thing.
Speaker 2 (03:02):
So what's the status of this tax bill? I mean
just timing wise talked about getting lost in the clutter
of the news here. Where are we with the timing here?
Speaker 3 (03:13):
Yeah, so the White House wants this passed by the
fourth of July. It's obviously past the House. It's now
over in the Senate. Now the Senate is out this week,
there's been discussions among staffers of trying to figure out
what in.
Speaker 4 (03:23):
The House will pass what's known as the Bird rule.
Speaker 3 (03:26):
Essentially, are there provisions of this House bill that just
won't work through the process of reconciliation.
Speaker 4 (03:31):
Now, I don't think that really is all that important to.
Speaker 3 (03:33):
The tax or the Medicaid or to the Inflation Reduction
Act portion. But next week we should see the Senators
come back and we'll start to see discussions of what
are they going to pair back from the House bill,
things like Medicaid work requirements, you know they would kick
in under at the end of twenty twenty six that
potentially geld get pushed.
Speaker 4 (03:49):
Back very important to solar investors.
Speaker 3 (03:52):
The Inflation Reduction Act, some of that language could also
get paired back.
Speaker 4 (03:55):
We'll probably see that play out.
Speaker 3 (03:57):
Over the next two to three weeks, and then I
think the Senate, if they had all their ducks aligned,
would try and go for a vote, probably by mid
to late June. But I don't be surprised if this
just leads back another couple weeks and we see this
in July.
Speaker 5 (04:09):
Elon Musk apparently Ditch and d C didn't like the
bureaucracy going to go back to his company. What does
that do for DOGE, for cost cutting, for anything.
Speaker 3 (04:19):
So there's two really aspects of the DOGE that's really
important to investors, and that's obviously you know, what is
the federal government spending outside of this one big beautiful
bill aka the appropriations process? Now Bloomberg Government actually put
out a piece this morning. They have a really cool
chart in there that shows you the government expenditures by
agency for the month of May for twenty twenty five
versus twenty twenty four, and the agencies are spending almost
(04:41):
about half of what they spent last year. So DOGE
has definitely done an importance. You know, the influence in
terms of getting agencies to spend less. But ultimately it
is Congress that needs to decide what the appropriations is
and what is to spend here. That's going to come
up in September, but it's also going to come up
in a recision package. The White House will most likely
(05:02):
send you to the House next week and they'll say, look,
we want to codify a lot of these Doge cuts.
Speaker 4 (05:07):
We need you to pass this.
Speaker 3 (05:09):
I would say, though, even though the filibuster isn't subject
to this, so just it requires a majority vote the House.
Speaker 4 (05:13):
In the Senate, a lot of.
Speaker 3 (05:15):
Times policymakers are like, look, I love the idea of
cutting federal waste on paper, but a lot of that
federal waste is also going to buy my district. So
I'm not sure this package will continue or it will pass.
And I will say, just at least at a first glance,
we're not seeing many market impacts to this recisions package.
Speaker 2 (05:32):
All right, I'm just looking at some BI litigation. We
have some folks in Bloomberg Intelligence that just look at
litigation because it impacts industries and impacts companies, and sure enough,
tariffs are first and foremost here. BI litigation analysis thinks
there's a sixty percent chance the Supreme Court will side
with the Court's ruling and that teriffs may exceed the
(05:54):
President's authority, but it will be very close. So that
seems to be what President Trump and this administration are
betting on that they can get this past the court.
Speaker 4 (06:04):
Yeah, you know, so that obviously, you.
Speaker 3 (06:06):
Know that's my colleagues, and my colleague Holly from is
the one that's leading this effort. She's actually chatting with
clients as we speak. But I will say that I
was talking to her prior to coming on air, and
she said that if the Supreme Court were to come
out and say we are going to take up this
case and potentially implement at stay, that could be indicative
of their thinking going forward, because you know the red
line that you showed before I came on the air,
(06:27):
talked about how the Supreme Court could potentially take this
up this week. If we see signs from the Supreme
Court that they're somewhat amicable to fast tracking this ultimately,
it could be beneficial.
Speaker 4 (06:38):
Now still it's very close to call.
Speaker 3 (06:40):
But Holly's original timeline is that if the Supreme Court
says that they're not going to take it up, and
this actually may have to go through the court appeals
and so forth. You would see an ultimate decision on
this in the fourth quarter of this year.
Speaker 5 (06:50):
What kind of questions are clients asking me right now,
Like the world really changed in the last couple of weeks,
Where do they asking you the most?
Speaker 3 (06:57):
Well, obviously with today, you know, it's the tear for
news and how our companies preparing for this are tariff's
off as we speak, you know, And our response to
that is obviously, you know, the White House has the
ability to re appeal.
Speaker 4 (07:07):
They have appealed.
Speaker 3 (07:09):
But really it's just the future of what President Trump
wants to do in terms of tariffs.
Speaker 4 (07:13):
Obviously there was discussion yesterday the taco.
Speaker 3 (07:16):
Trade, if you will, And what I will say is
that President Trump truly believes in tariffs. He still believes
in them. He believes them as a point of leverage
and a point of negotiation. And so whether or not
it's using AEPA or Section three oh one or Section
two thirty two, tariffs are here to stay, and they're
most likely here to stay for the next four years.
But are you getting a tariff like one hundred and
forty five percent tariff on China or are you getting
(07:38):
a ten percent tariff on the United Kingdom. Those are
the questions that the clients want to know, and we'll
see that play out.
Speaker 4 (07:43):
Over the next few weeks and months.
Speaker 2 (07:45):
And Nathan, I can't help but notice that the Democrats
are awfully, awfully quiet these days. They've been since the
beginning of President Trump's administration. And my understanding was, yes,
they're a minority, but not by much and those razors,
wh's a majority for the Republicans. It doesn't feel that
way from the Democrats. It might overthinking then.
Speaker 3 (08:06):
No, actually, the Democrats are somewhat irrelevant when it comes
to tariff's.
Speaker 4 (08:09):
And also the One Big Beautiful Bill.
Speaker 3 (08:11):
Because tariffs, President Trump is doing this via executive authority,
so the Democrats aren't involved. And when it comes to
the One Big Beautiful Bill, they're doing it via reconciliation,
which bypasses the Democrats. But the Democrats will be able
to start to fight back later this year because once
the Big Beautiful Bill passes, that's.
Speaker 4 (08:27):
About it for Congress.
Speaker 3 (08:29):
And so come September you're gonna have things like the
government funding or a government shutdown, and so forth, and
the Democrats are really going to try and start positioning
themselves for next year. It's just that the Republicans are
using procedures and processes at the moment that bypasses them,
and as a result, Democrats are really struggling to figure
out how to combat that.
Speaker 6 (08:48):
All right, Nathan, really appreciate it.
Speaker 5 (08:49):
Thank you very much, Nathan Dean, Bloomberg Intelligence Senior policy analyst.
He's definitely really busy, but I feel like maybe things have.
Speaker 6 (08:56):
Calmed down a little bit for him.
Speaker 4 (08:57):
Yeah, and he's relative from what this breadth.
Speaker 2 (09:01):
Of knowledge is just amazes me about how all that
stuff works.
Speaker 1 (09:05):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live
weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple, Cocklay, and Android
Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever
you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 5 (09:19):
Let's get more on where we are with Harvard and
President Trump. I'm the latest evolution of this drama. Janet Lauren,
higher education finance reporter. I joins us now from Bloomberry.
I didn't think you probably didn't think you'd be this
busy in this particular way.
Speaker 6 (09:33):
All right, what's the latest well the latest well right now,
commencement is going on.
Speaker 4 (09:39):
Okay, so that's the speakers this year.
Speaker 7 (09:43):
Yesterday, i believe it for the class date was Kareem
Abdul Jabbar for the undergraduate cool. So you know, this
should be in some ways a really happy celebratory time
for Harvard, which it is, and especially for students and
their parents and their grandparent parents who welcome.
Speaker 6 (10:01):
But just like last year, there is a palpable.
Speaker 7 (10:04):
Tension at Harvard around graduation. Last year the question of protests.
Speaker 6 (10:10):
What was going to happen an animal rights.
Speaker 7 (10:13):
Activist through glitter on President Alan Garber during the ceremony.
Speaker 6 (10:17):
And today, you.
Speaker 7 (10:18):
Know, there is also a very palpable tension, but it's
a very different one, especially with international students, because it's
unclear what their fate is. It appeared that yesterday the
State Department has perhaps widened that ban on visas regarding
all all those with Chinese affiliations at Harvard. It keeps
(10:41):
things keep changing. It's hard to keep track on what's
actually happening. But but today, you know, should be a
happy day for the students at Harvard.
Speaker 2 (10:51):
Harvard it just feels again I have zero affiliation with Harvard.
They're being targeted here by this administration visa VI Ivy
League schools or the University of Texas or the University
of Florida or anything like that.
Speaker 7 (11:06):
Do we know why, Well, Harvard is the biggest prize
out there.
Speaker 6 (11:11):
It's you know, we've talked about this before.
Speaker 7 (11:12):
It's the oldest university in America, it predates the country.
It's the richest school with a fifty three billion dollar endowment.
And in some ways it's more symbolic. What else if
you want to make a point, everybody in the world
knows the brand of Harvard very powerful, you know, almost
in some ways like a luxury good, especially when viewed overseas.
(11:35):
And yesterday President Trump talked in the Oval Office about
Harvard should cap the number of foreign students at fifteen percent.
It's more like twenty seven percent now, and I think
that number is surprising to a lot of people, that
these campuses have almost more than a quarter of the
students are from other countries.
Speaker 5 (11:54):
Well to that point, there is a headline that the
Harvard case judge is now expanding the block of president
comes foreign student ban. Does that imply that more foreign
students get to stay on are allowed to sort of
stay at Harvard or apply to be at Harvard.
Speaker 7 (12:10):
Well, keep in mind that just because the judge has
blocked something doesn't mean if you're a student, you're going
to be making decisions based on what's going to happen
over the next two years or four years, and you
want to be able to stay and complete your education.
Speaker 6 (12:26):
And I have to think, oh my god, I have
to transfer.
Speaker 7 (12:29):
I have to find a place that has an open
spot and would take me.
Speaker 2 (12:33):
And you know, with my affiliation with Duke University, I
saw this at the board level the first Trump administration,
and now again it's the exact same thing is happening.
Speaker 7 (12:41):
Now.
Speaker 2 (12:41):
They're seeing it drop in applications and interests from foreign
students because they just don't know what the situation is
going to be a week from now, a year from now,
three years from now. All they know is I don't
feel as welcomed as I thought I would or I'm
going to need to be. So I'm going to look
to Canada, I'm going to look to Europe and things
like that. Hell hard, do you think Harvard really is going.
Speaker 4 (13:02):
To fight this?
Speaker 2 (13:02):
Do you think just all of these things across the whole.
I guess, you know, panically what's going on.
Speaker 7 (13:08):
Well, Harvard has already filed two lawsuits. The first one
was in April in response to a letter that the
administration made lots of demands, and Harvard doesn't disagree with
some of the things the government is asking for, but
it does disagree in the way that it is going
about it. So Harvard also has to feel like it's
(13:30):
supporting its constituency, the students.
Speaker 6 (13:34):
They have to show that they're supporting the students.
Speaker 7 (13:36):
And I think in some ways the Harvard faculty has
never felt more unified. You know, there's lots of different
factions there. Certainly the humanities faculty are not going to
agree with some things that the that the science faculty
and priorities, But in some ways this has unified them
and perhaps alumni because they somebody is standing up to
(14:01):
Trump and Harvard is a very rich entity.
Speaker 4 (14:05):
Jenet, fascinating.
Speaker 2 (14:06):
I'm sure going to be talking to you more in
the future regarding this and other topics in higher education.
Janet Lauren, higher education financial reporter for Bloomberg News, joining
us live here in our interactive Growker's studio.
Speaker 1 (14:19):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live
weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android
Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever
you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 2 (14:33):
Let's go to match. Docky, chief portfolio manager for Equity said.
He said, Northwestern Mutual Wealth out there in Milwaukee, pound
for pound, some of the best money managers.
Speaker 6 (14:42):
In the world a Milwaukee.
Speaker 2 (14:42):
I have no idea. Why, Matt, what do you make
of this market? I mean, we were down twenty percent,
we've retraced much of that decline, and now you're to date,
we're basically unched on the year.
Speaker 4 (14:53):
Where do we go from here?
Speaker 8 (14:56):
Well, good morning, thanks for having me back. Look, I mean,
I think the market's like they stay pretty volatile. You know,
while you know we've round tripped, you know, the Terriff
and Duce losses in April, by no means that we
have the woods, just in terms of the uncertainty that
still remains in terms of what trade policy is going
to look like a month or two or three from now.
(15:17):
And so you know days like today where you have
really strong arrange reports after the clothes you know from
the video kind of carrying the open higher and then
kind of with sawing back down. I think you are
kind of par for the course. Is we kind of
think through kind of how markets should behave from now
to the end of the year, just given you know,
certainly that still remains.
Speaker 5 (15:35):
So when it comes to Nvidia, is this the ballance
that we are all hoping for? Like does that really
help unleash animal spirits or is that just confirmation and
everything's okay?
Speaker 6 (15:45):
But that's harder for upside.
Speaker 8 (15:47):
Yeah, for Navidia specifically, I think what's unusual about to
set up into the print was you know, this was
one of these times where the video was somewhat cheap
relative to expectations, and so it comes into the question
whether or not, you know, the buyside and salesite we're
mismatched in terms of where those expectations sat, and you know, just.
Speaker 4 (16:08):
Kind of get into it a little bit deeper.
Speaker 8 (16:11):
You know, back in April and the video traded south
of one hundred dollars a share, and if you believe
kind of the base case that a lot of cell
side shops are pitching you know, we're talking you know,
six dollars plus per share in counter your twenty twenty
six in terms of earnings per share. That makes na
Vidia sub s and P five hundred multiple name and
(16:35):
you know that's where kind of the stock was heading
into the print. Of course, it had kind of rebounded
with the rest of the market in April, but Navidia
had historically had always traded thirty five forty times forward
earnings and it was sub twenty and so you know,
this has just been a little bit of a sigh
relief if you're in the video shareholder that the growth
story is still intact and some of the concerns about
(16:56):
supply chains and being able to really ramp up you know,
rack scale black roll systems in the back half of
this year, it seemed to be in the rear view mayor.
Speaker 2 (17:07):
So Matt does the Nvidia results last night a little
bit better than expected. That that give kind of a
green light for tech broadly defined here is that can
that can can tech continue to be a leader in
this market?
Speaker 8 (17:18):
Well, if Navida doesn't work with in tech, what else
is really going to work with in tech?
Speaker 4 (17:22):
So and it should.
Speaker 8 (17:24):
Probably be a little bit a little more specific with
that within semic inductors level were just going to keep
it to that kind of industry. Look, how many companies
can you point to that have to sacrifice ten and
a half billion dollars for the pigh margin revenue over
two quarters in the form of base twenty revenue still
outperform the overall market on a year of date and
one year basis. There's not a whole lot of them,
(17:45):
And the video is the only one that I can
think of that's been able.
Speaker 4 (17:48):
To clear that hurdle.
Speaker 8 (17:51):
But you know, I think if we kind of also
think about the setup into the quarter, you're kind of
clearing some of the China uncertainly by just kind of
removing the revenue piece altogether for them specifically, That's not
the case for the rest of technology. There's still terror
related concerns for a lot of other names within tech.
Navidia is just kind of already kind of pass that,
(18:12):
and we'll probably have to see some others also pass
that into the future.
Speaker 5 (18:16):
So we got this trade ruling and then we got
in Vidia. Does this clear the runway for the S
and P and now test again record highs or is
it too early to call that?
Speaker 8 (18:27):
You know, I think it's too early to necessarily, you know,
believe that you know, the trade related and teriff related
fears are behind us. You know, while a lot of
the terriffs were rescinded via the quarter over last night,
the other avenues to restoring those tariff levels, whether we're
talking about Section two seventy two, which is still in
front of us, or some other of the authorities that
(18:50):
the President has to restore the tariff levels country by country.
So you know, that uncertainy from my perspective, still remains.
And and so you know, the runway from here, I
think is is really just a function of kind of
how the labor market holds in. We see sentiment data
really bounce around quite a bit, you know, with the
consumer with you know, the April second announcement kind of
(19:12):
really plunging consumer and business confidence, but then it's starting
to ramp back up a little bit during the Instagram period.
If we're looking at the April credit card data or
what we've seen from the Chase card data in the
weeks of May that you know, sour sentiment on the
consumer level hasn't really translated to changing spending behavior. In fact,
(19:32):
it's kind of been a little bit better than expected
and at least in line with trend level growth that
we saw earlier in this year. And so while consumers
are telling us that you know, they're they're anxious about
kind of the outlook, yeah, that isn't affecting their behavior
and that's that's ultimately what drives startings.
Speaker 5 (19:49):
All right, good stuff. Really appreciate that you, right, Matt,
Matt Stuck you vice president, chief portfolio manager of Equities
at Northwestern a Mutual.
Speaker 1 (19:56):
This is the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,
and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each
weekday ten am to noon Eastern on Bloomberg dot com,
the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app.
You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube
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