Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
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Speaker 2 (00:23):
It's been Walmart here. The company came out with numbers
kind of in line. I thought they were pretty good numbers,
but the guide that's definitely disappointed the stream. We've got
the stock off six point four percent here today, but
still about about sixty six percent year to day. To remember,
this has got a market cap of seven hundred and
eighty one billion dollars, does Walmart. So let's check in
on this story. Emily Cone joins us Bloomberg Consumer Team
(00:45):
Leader joints us here and at Bloomberg Get Interactive Brokers Studio. Emily,
what kind of jumped out of you for this earnings
report from Walmart?
Speaker 3 (00:52):
Thanks, Paul. Yeah, I'm definitely the the lower than expected
profit forecast for the full year. I think you know,
these were consistent estimates. This was a consistent guidance in
line with what they laid out last year for the
full year as well. But it definitely signaled that the
(01:14):
you know the world's largest retailer, Walmart, isn't immune to
the risks that are out there for the broader economic environment. Granted,
Walmart has historically given conservative outlook to start the year off,
but this definitely showed, you know, and they they used
(01:34):
the word uncertain. I haven't checked, but a number of
times on their analysts call. That was sort of like
the theme of the call.
Speaker 4 (01:43):
What else did they say for this, I guess we
could call it conservative or negative outlook? Did they mention
it's because consumers are pulling back, people are looking for bargains.
I guess, like, what did we learn about the consumer
in this report?
Speaker 3 (01:59):
Yeah, it was it wasn't negative. It was it was
in line with what they offered last year, three to
four percent growth. But I think, you know, and I
think that's taking into account near term investments. So they
mentioned things like consumer trends and near term investments like
(02:19):
the cost of the acquisition of the smart TV maker Visio.
We're still seeing those costs take a hit on the
bottom line. But yeah, they said they haven't incorporated yet
the risk of tariffs into their guidance. We also saw
US retail sales dip in January and core inflation pick up.
So I think those are those are all things that
(02:40):
are weighing on on retailers, and Walmart certainly isn't immune.
Speaker 2 (02:46):
How about on the tariff front. I mean, they am
looking at your Bloombergers right up here, talk about tariffs.
Walmart imports food from Mexico and general merchandise products like
microwaves in China. What are they saying about tariffs? Is
that incorporating their guidance?
Speaker 3 (03:03):
They said they have not incorporated tariffs into their guidance before.
Tariffs aren't new for a company like Walmart. Obviously we
saw import tariffs, you know, during the last Trump administration.
But they're doing what we've seen most companies do so
far this year, which is say it's uncertain, we're not
(03:24):
sure what's going to happen, and we're not incorporating tariffs
into our guidance yet. But yeah, I mean, food prices
were up for them, General merchandising prices I think came
down a little bit.
Speaker 4 (03:41):
I actually learned something new about Walmart today, and that's
that you can buy a pre owned Chanel bag through
their website. So I guess they're getting into online sales.
They're beefing up their digital operation to include items like
collectibles and pre owned Chanel bags. Wow, think about that,
I mean luxury items at like a discount retailer.
Speaker 3 (04:04):
Yeah. So Walmart is still small compared to Amazon, but
in terms of e commerce, but that's an area where
they're just continuing to see huge growth in e commerce
in their their marketplace. So that that is something that
you'll continue to hear them talk a lot about and
there's a ton of upside there. Pharmacy delivery was another
(04:27):
one that they shouted out today. That's a new business
for them. So these newer businesses continue to grow a
lot for Walmart, and they would say there's still a
big runway there when it comes to competing with Amazon.
Speaker 2 (04:41):
It's interesting comparable sales excluding fuel rose four point six
percent at US Walmart Star Wars open at least a
year for the quarter end of January thirty first. That's
higher than Wall Street had been anticipating. So it doesn't
seem like the consumer per se, at least in this
quarter was a problem. Consumer was still spending.
Speaker 3 (04:59):
So an interesting thing about the growth this quarter and
actually last quarter as well, was that growth was mostly
coming from higher income households, So households that are earning
more than one hundred thousand dollars a year. Not the
person you typically think of as your average Walmart shopper.
These are like wealthier people who are looking for deals,
looking for value. Maybe they're coming to Walmart for groceries
(05:21):
as opposed to whole foods this quarter because prices on
food are so high. So that's really where the growth
is still coming from, are wealthier shoppers.
Speaker 4 (05:32):
So that does that tell you then that the consumer
is maybe weaker if these high income people are having
to move down the spectrum.
Speaker 5 (05:41):
It's possible.
Speaker 3 (05:42):
And I think, you know, we are looking forward to
the rest of the big pox results coming this quarter.
We're looking at Home Depot, We're looking at Target. I
think they will tell us a bigger picture view of
how the US consumer is doing. But yes, I have
the same question, where are those shoppers coming from? Who's
losing here?
Speaker 2 (06:01):
Emily Cohen, thank you so much for joining us. Emily Cohen,
she's a consumer team leader for Bloomberg News, joining us
live here in our Bloomberg Interactive Brookers studio talking about
breaking down those Walmont Earnings.
Speaker 1 (06:11):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live
weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android
Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever
you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 2 (06:25):
Let's switch gears here talk about this Federal Reserve. We
had the FED minutes yesterday. I did not read them.
I never read them. That's why we have people like
Mike McLoone, I mean Mike McKee. We've got Danielle di
Martino Booth joining us here in studio. She's the CEO
and chief strategist for QI Research. What's our FED doing here?
Our Fed can do? Is it safe to say they
(06:45):
could do nothing all year? And that would be okay?
Speaker 5 (06:49):
I really don't think markets are priced for that.
Speaker 6 (06:52):
Okay.
Speaker 7 (06:53):
In fact, in the last week, if there's anything that
we've seen, it's the second it's the second rate kind
of the year begin to be really priced in. So
I wouldn't be surprised if we were to see something
around June.
Speaker 5 (07:05):
And I think what's going to force their hand is
the job market.
Speaker 4 (07:10):
What did you learn from the minutes?
Speaker 7 (07:14):
Not too terribly much and It's not that they didn't
try and present a unified front in the minutes, But
when the chair of the FMC gets up at the
podium and swats away the verbiage of the statement, you know,
without even reading a single line of the minutes that
(07:36):
there was a lot of controversy, dissent, disagreement in that room.
So you're going to see very little when it comes
to the minutes. Remember in two thousand and eight, Janet
Yellen said we can use the minutes as another tool
in the toolbox to continue to shape the thinking of markets,
even though they're theoretically timestamped, but they're not.
Speaker 2 (08:00):
You mentioned the labor market earlier. What what is your
read of the labor market these days? We had I
guess we had the initial job as claims came in
just a little bit higher than expected today, but I
do know any number with it, two ten, fifteen, two
twenty seems like the norm. How do you view the
labor market?
Speaker 7 (08:18):
So I think right now what we have is a
pig and a python, and we've had a very constant
stream of layoffs in the private sector. I mean, I
need to meet and shake the hand of the person
who runs bcygo because I don't think they sleep because
the bankruptcy cycle has as even though it hit a
fourteen year high in twenty twenty four, it's only accelerated.
(08:41):
My gosh, we've had almost four thousand store closings announced
and it's just February twentieth so far this year.
Speaker 5 (08:48):
To give you context, co Star.
Speaker 7 (08:49):
Reported that there were seventy three hundred closed for all
of twenty twenty five.
Speaker 5 (08:54):
So we know that there is a there's.
Speaker 7 (08:57):
A bulge of layoffs moving like a pig through a python,
plus plus public sector job cuts, and that's the.
Speaker 5 (09:06):
Big that's the big change agent.
Speaker 3 (09:10):
You know.
Speaker 7 (09:10):
It was interesting to see that the survey week end
at February the fifteenth, that was what was coincided with
what was reported this morning, and yet we saw continuing
jobless claims pushing three million, not not seasonally adjusted.
Speaker 5 (09:26):
The high for the for the cycle.
Speaker 7 (09:27):
If you lose your job, if you have a job,
don't lose it, That's what Powell said at the podium.
But when you figure that there been one hundred thousand
jobs cuts announced in the private sector this thus far
in February alone, and then you tack on what seventy
five thousand who took the buyout, and the fact that
they waited until today to start laying off six thousand
(09:49):
people at the IRS seven thousand Department of Defense. It's
going to snowball, and it's gonna snowball before the FED meets.
Not maybe not in March, because today coincided with the
survey week for non farm payrolls and obviously a fairly
low number. But if we don't see it in the
February jobs report, we're going to see it in the
(10:11):
March jobs report, and then the Fed will meet again.
So I think that that's why markets have begun to
sniff this out. Seventy percent of jobs created in the
month of January were either government jobs or related to
the government healthcare. So when you begin to take that
job creation machine offline, it's been such a massive support.
(10:34):
In addition to the fact that we haven't had any
private job creation net net for two and a half years,
something's going to give.
Speaker 4 (10:40):
So when we see then that the minutes, the officials
are saying in the minutes that you know they want
to keep rates steady, we look at what markets are pricing.
Maybe only one more rate cut is the FED not
aware of this snowballing effect that you see coming in
the labor market.
Speaker 7 (10:59):
Oh, I think FED officials are more than aware. They
do have a narrative to uphold. They're not allowed to
say that that. You know, they're not allowed to screen
fire in a crowdit theater. But we know that FED
officials know because Chair Powell, because Governor Christopher Waller, you know,
the closest thing to him speaking himself, his closest confidant
(11:22):
on the Federal.
Speaker 5 (11:23):
Ban Market Committee.
Speaker 7 (11:24):
They've recognized that new rents are the way to gauge inflation.
Speaker 5 (11:28):
They've talked about it on multiple occasions.
Speaker 7 (11:30):
Apartment List yesterday was out with the highest vacancy rate
six point eight five percent, which check out the July
twenty twenty high. We've got seven hundred and thirty five
thousand apartments that are still coming out of the construction pipeline,
and one apartment read after another saying rents are falling.
Speaker 5 (11:48):
I'm going in all.
Speaker 7 (11:49):
These details because if it's rents that Powell and Waller
are falling to gauge inflation, and that's exactly what we're
seeing in trueflation, tru bond Traders introduced me to that metric.
Speaker 5 (12:01):
It's real time, if you will.
Speaker 7 (12:02):
It's come from three come down from three point one
percent two point three percent this year true inflation. We
can see what's happening in real time with inflation. And
then there's the dot dot dot what happens with tariffs
and who on Earth knows, but we do know that
in twenty eighteen with the first Trump tweet about tariffs,
by the end of twenty nineteen, the CPI was actually
(12:24):
lower because it's because tariff's slowed growth.
Speaker 6 (12:28):
Yep.
Speaker 2 (12:28):
Absolutely, daniel Dee Martina Bouth, thank you so much for
joining us. Danielle Di Martina Booth, She's a CEO and
chief strategist QI Research. Joining us live here in our
Bloomberg and DIRECTI Brokeer studio, one of our absolute go
to voices when it comes to the Federal Reserve and
what those folks are doing there.
Speaker 1 (12:46):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live
weekdays at ten am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto
with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you
get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 2 (13:00):
Sorry, demil gurfail sitting in for Alex Steele Paul Sweeney
were live here in a Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio and
we are streaming live on YouTube as well. In the
Greater New York City area. One of the biggest stories
over the past couple days is congestion pricing. I went
into effect earlier in January. It seems to be working.
I mean, congestions down. My travel time into the city
(13:21):
when I come in is less, you know, revenues up.
I don't know. But the federal government, Donald Trump put
a stop to that, a temporary stop perhaps, and we've
got some litigation stemming from Governor Holkl here to maybe
keep the congestion pricing going. But it is a big,
big deal, certainly here in New York City, but also
for some other regions around the country that also have
(13:41):
some types of congestion pricing. So everybody's kind of watching
to see how this will play out. So we want
to get a smart voice on this. Sarah Lynn joins this,
co executive director of Open Plans. It joins us from
New York City via zoom. Sarah, kind of where are
we today with this congestion pricing?
Speaker 1 (13:57):
Is it on?
Speaker 5 (13:57):
Is it off?
Speaker 6 (13:58):
Where are we I think The first really important thing
to say is that congestion pricing works and it's good
for business, you know, and you have groups like the
Partnership for New York and Redney supporting congestion pricing. They're
doing it because they know it's good for business within
the zone and in the regional economy as a whole.
Speaker 5 (14:16):
It's still on.
Speaker 6 (14:17):
Governor Hokel was very clear yesterday the cameras are still on.
The NCAA has already filed suit against the administration's action,
and I expect the cameras will be on while that
all plays out in court.
Speaker 4 (14:31):
What do we know about the presidential administration's rationale for
wanting to halt this? And then I guess what kind
of power they have to actually put this through.
Speaker 6 (14:45):
I think rationale is a strong word with many things
this administration is doing. This feels very personal. Frankly, again,
there's not a good business rationale. There's not a good
rationale in terms of this is reducing congestion. This is
speeding up bus times. That's good for working New Yorkers.
This is already reducing traffic crashes in the zone. It's
(15:07):
reducing air pollution. So from every perspective that matters, congestion
pricing is working the administration. Sean Duffy has made arguments
that congestion pricing is bad for working New Yorkers. That's
just patently false. Only four percent of working New Yorkers,
low income New Yorkers drive into the zone. All of
(15:28):
the rest of them rely on public transportation that has
gotten better already with only a month and a half
of congestion pricing, and we'll continue to get better. So
that rationale is just false. I think that they think
they have the authority, but we really believe they don't. Again,
lawsuits will bear this out over the next few months,
(15:49):
but federal approval has already been given. The program is
already in place.
Speaker 2 (15:53):
So folks on the other side of that argument would say,
then I live in the grade state of New Jersey.
Defend that one.
Speaker 5 (16:01):
It's a tax.
Speaker 2 (16:02):
It's just another tax on Metro New York people, and boy,
aren't we taxed enough. What's a response to that.
Speaker 6 (16:10):
Well, it's a toll and there are toll roads all
over New Jersey, for example. And you know this is
a common this is a common technique that states and
municipalities use to raise money both for you know, highways
and for other.
Speaker 5 (16:27):
Funding.
Speaker 6 (16:27):
You know, this is going to the MTA and funding
our public transportation system. But Governor Murphy, you know, has
been very critical of this. We'd love to see him
get rid of all the tolls on the New Jersey
roads if that's his argument.
Speaker 4 (16:40):
Okay, And so where are we on the process of
how New York is trying to fight back. Just walk
us through kind of like what the timeline looks like here.
Speaker 6 (16:52):
Yeah, So the MTA immediately filed suit. We knew this
was coming. Trump has been talking about this, you know,
since the campaign. So the mt immediately filed suit. I
expect that there will be a countersuit from the administration
to turn off the cameras, seeking an injunction. I don't
know that, but just that would be my assumption. And
(17:12):
so then obviously the MTA and Hopel will fight that.
My opinion is that an injunctions not warranted here because
that would be clear and present damage to the state
and the mpta's budget. We should be allowed to continue
receiving this funding. Well, the lawsuit, the main lawsuit, plays
out in court, and that can take you know, that
can take a long time. Lawsuits famously are not the
(17:34):
fastest thing.
Speaker 2 (17:36):
So just thirty seconds left, Sarah in the interim, giving
them now into the legal realm here and the delays.
The cameras are on. Are they still recording everybody? Is
it still like functional?
Speaker 6 (17:48):
Yep, the cameras are on. They're still issuing tolls. That
will continue until we are told otherwise by a court,
and we'll continue to receive all the benefits. And the
program has been getting more and more popular over time.
Every program in the world that is put in place does,
and I think New Yorkers are continuing to see the
benefits of this.
Speaker 2 (18:06):
All right, Seralyn, thank you so much. We appreciate that.
Serlyn co Executive director, open plans again. Congestion pricing folks
here in New York is a big, big issue affecting
a lot of folks here. Our offices are Lexington Avenue,
the Bloomberg offices Lexington Avenue at fifty ninth Street, so
we are just one block inside this zone here, and
so for people like John Tucker, Bloomberg News, Michael Barr
(18:28):
Bloomberg News who drive into the city from New Jersey
very early in the morning two three, four, o'clock in
the morning. It's an issue just for them to their
daily commits. It's issue for a lot of people, and
there's arguments.
Speaker 5 (18:41):
For both sides here.
Speaker 2 (18:42):
So but now it's in the courts.
Speaker 4 (18:44):
Yeah, the Bloomberg headquarters actually have they have cameras, and
so we had Bloomberg News actually has a unique perspective
and a unique way to report on this because we
can actually see exactly, you know, which.
Speaker 2 (18:57):
Our building on the street right outside the bloom the
Bloomingdale's across the street from the Bloomberg headquarters of blooming Gills.
That's where the cameras are and they're right over Lexington
Avenue and they've been there for almost a year. So
we'll stay on.
Speaker 8 (19:11):
Top of that.
Speaker 1 (19:13):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live
weekdays at ten am Eastern on Applecarcklay and Android Auto
with the Bloomberg Business app, Listen on demand wherever you
get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 2 (19:27):
Emily Grafe was sitting in for Alex Steel and Paul Sweeney.
We are live here in the Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio.
We're streaming live on YouTube to theay can actually see
us for better or worse. I go over to YouTube
dot com search Bloomberg Podcast Live. That's where you'll find
us here. Earnings coming in we have been about eighty
percent of the S and P five hundred companies have
reported already double digit increases in earnings for share, a
(19:48):
little bit better and expected. Gina Martin Adams and Bloomberg
Intelligence was just saying how the narers are coming on
a little bit better than she had been looking for.
The question is is that enough for this market? Because
I don't think the FED is going to be doing
a lot for us this year. That let's you know,
kind of what the market's telling us. Phil Orlando joins us.
He does this stuff for a living. He's a chief
equity market strategist and head of client portfolio management at
(20:09):
federatedt Hermeis. We was appreciate getting a few minutes of
Phil's time. So, Phil, how did you kind of set
the expectations for twenty twenty five with your clients after
the really good performance the SMP has had really for
the last couple of years.
Speaker 8 (20:23):
I absolutely right Paul that in twenty three and twenty
four the S and P was up between twenty and
twenty five percent total return. And then where we got
really aggressive on stocks was what we thought was that
over sold bottom. In October of twenty three, the SMP
was down around forty one hundred, and then our year
(20:45):
end target for the S and P last year was
sixty two hundred. That was, you know, roughly a forty
eight percent rally in stocks over like a fifteen to
sixteen month period. That's phenomenal, and it's not replicable. I mean,
we're not going to do that this year next year.
But what we have been telling clients is in light
(21:07):
of the fiscal policy initiatives that we think are going
to put in place over the course of the next
fifteen months or so, in light of a gradual decline
in interest rates that we expect to see out of
the FED over the next year or two, we can
still see stocks grind up, you know, mid to upper teens,
(21:28):
but not you know, twenty or twenty five percent. So
still a constructive environment, but not as phenomenal a it's
been the last couple of years, Phil.
Speaker 4 (21:36):
What would have to change at least for the FED
environment to kind of dent that view. We were talking
earlier about how potentially we might only see one rate
cut this year. What if we don't see any at all?
How much would that affect your stock outlook.
Speaker 8 (21:57):
So we are in the one or two rate cut
camp right now in the back end of the year.
We're thinking the first cut might be September or so,
second one if there is one, December or so, and
that's largely a function of the data. Now remember, Emily
that the Federal Reserve has a dual mandate, so they're
looking at the trajectory with that Phillips curve trade off.
(22:18):
What's going on with the labor market, what's going on
with inflation? And right now, the labor market's pretty strong,
and inflation has actually been reaccelerating over the course of
the last you know, six to eight months, based upon
whatever metric you want to look at. So given that environment,
(22:38):
you know, the market a year ago thought the Fed
was going to be cutting interest rates seven times last year.
That obviously didn't happen, and there's a school of thought
that the Fed is going to slow down materially, you know,
from this year. Remember they cut their their SEP target
down to two cuts for this year, and the market's thinking, well,
(22:59):
maybe it's one, maybe it's none, and and I guess
the bears are thinking, well, maybe the Fed's going to
turn around and start hiking interest rates at some point.
So there's a lot of confusion about, you know, what
monetary policy is going to look like, and to some
degree that's going to be driven by what What does
fiscal policy look like? What what is the incoming Trump
(23:20):
administration able to get done in terms of extending and
making permanent the tax cuts, What are they doing with tariffs,
what are they doing with regulations and and and how
is all of that going to impact economic growth and inflation.
I think there's a giant question mark mark on all
of that. Yet, yet stocks have been just powering through.
(23:40):
We hit you know, another all time record high yesterday,
So there's a little bit of a disconnect there in
terms of the uncertainty in the marketplace. Yet, uh, the
you know, very strong performers of the equity mark.
Speaker 2 (23:53):
Pill What is the January Barometer portfolio indicator? What is
it and what's it telling you?
Speaker 8 (23:59):
The January Barometer Portfolio indicator is telling us that the
sectors of the market, the eleven s and p five
hundred sectors in the month of January. Historically, the market
sort of tips their hand, and the sectors that do
well or do poorly in January tend to continue in
(24:20):
that direction through the balance of the year. What we
saw on January this year is that a lot of
the growth and technology mag seven kind of names took
it on the chin. In the month of January, investors
began to lock in some profits. Yet the sectors of
the market that we felt had been left for dead
(24:40):
the last year or two, financials, healthcare, industrials, utilities, they
had a pretty good month, all better than the S
and P five hundred performance. So what we've been talking
about since the middle of last year is that we
felt that there would be a reversion to the mean,
that the dramatic ou foremant of the meg seven names
(25:02):
would ease to some degree, that there'd be some profit
taking and a rotation of some of those profits into
the forgotten four ninety three that had dramatically underperformed. And
we thought that there was, you know, a significant catch
up trade in the offing, and for the better part
of the last couple of quarters, that trade has started
to work, and we think it's got legs.
Speaker 4 (25:25):
Phil, We don't have a ton of time left, but
I want to get your thoughts on the data that
we saw showing a slump.
Speaker 5 (25:32):
In retail sales.
Speaker 4 (25:33):
What does that mean for the equity market.
Speaker 8 (25:37):
I wrote a piece beginning of the week that hit
the Federated website. Yesterday we talked about the consumer slowing down.
We had a pretty good Christmas, all right, and we
defined Christmas as October through January. Christmas sales were up
three point nine percent year on year this year versus
two point eight percent last year. So it was a
(25:58):
pretty good Christmas. But October, November, December were pretty good.
January sort of fell off a cliff. January was not good.
And you look at a number of the issues that
are that are happening. We talked about inflation starting to
re accelerate, consumer confidence has started to roll over, personal
(26:19):
savings rate had come down with two year low. Low
end consumers are struggling. Our view is that the strength
we saw in the fourth quarter of last year is
going to decidedly slow here in the first quarter. And
I guess, depending upon what happens with the Fed and Washington,
that trend, you know, may stabilize in March or April.
(26:41):
Or it may continued a week and we'll just have
to say.
Speaker 2 (26:44):
Phil, thanks so much for joining us. Always appreciate getting
a few minutes of your time. Philler Lando, chief equity
market strategists and head of client portfolio Management and federated
at Hearmeyes joining us via zoom Appreciate getting his thoughts.
He's been really clear on his market calls over the
last four five, six years, and more than not he
has been spot on. So it's a good voice with
(27:05):
like check it in with pill Orlando.
Speaker 1 (27:08):
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