December 27, 2023 • 35 mins
Artificial intelligence threatens jobs, but will it enable people to think critically? We explore that topic, along with vaccines, housing, and the negative health effects of ultra-processed foods. Bloomberg Opinion columnists Allison Schrager, Lisa Jarvis, Conor Sen, and Bobby Ghosh join. Amy Morris hosts.
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Opinion podcast count US Saturdays
at one in seven pm Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com,
the iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business App, or listen
on demand wherever you get your podcasts.
Speaker 2 (00:15):
Welcome to Bloomberg Opinion. I'm Amy Morris. This week we
look at the flu shot. Fewer kids are getting vaccinated
for flu season, and that might actually pose a bigger
problem for the older folks around them, like their grandparents. Also,
after some severe whiplash in recent months, it looks like
home buyers are about to catch a break, and the
(00:36):
USDA is releasing its food guidelines soon. But if you're
waiting for a warning against ultra processed foods, you might
be waiting a while. But first, let's begin with the
humanities and social sciences. Their popularity in the US has
been waiting in recent years. Bill Falls is dean of
the College of Arts and Sciences at the University of Vermont.
Earlier this year, he told a local television station that
(00:59):
the school has trimmed its budget, letting about five percent
of their full time professors go and transitioning others to
part time.
Speaker 3 (01:07):
The concern that folks have had about taking away from
the humanities. Maybe gets confused to think that somehow we
don't value the humanities or don't want the humanities to thrive.
I think it's just because of this shift in student interest.
Speaker 2 (01:23):
It is a shift, he says, that started to show
up back in twenty ten, as many students focus on
stem fields with skills more directly applicable to their careers.
But perhaps the humanities and social sciences have failed to
train students to be critical thinkers, and that may be
where artificial intelligence comes in. We get more on this
(01:44):
with Bloomberg opinion columnist Alison Schrager, who covers economics and
is a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute. Alison, why
do you say in your column on the Bloomberg Terminal
that the arts are no longer teaching students to be
critical thinkers?
Speaker 4 (01:58):
Well, I mean, traditionally, you know, you would read the
great books, you would get this very sort of like
great nuanced view of history. But it seems like more
and more that, I mean, at least we keep seeing
coming out of universities is a simple, more reductive view
of the world. And you know that also just doesn't
(02:18):
really sort of ask the big questions and come up
with a sort of a way of understanding very complex
issues or really a great understanding of history. It seems
like from definitely what we've been told or my friends
who teach in the humanities, people, you're getting people they've
sort of gone away from that, taken sort of a
different view. Some call it postmodern, and you know, I mean,
(02:40):
there's a lot of different viewpoints of history. That's certainly
a valid one, but the problem is when it takes over,
you don't really sort of get those critical thinking skills
of seeing different problems from different perspectives.
Speaker 2 (02:53):
And it looks like that not only is enrollment in
humanity's dropping, but more Americans are actually questioning the value
of a college education.
Speaker 4 (03:01):
Yeah, and everyone keeps saying that that's because students just
you know, college has got a lot more expensive, and
they want to get value for money. They want to go,
they want to study something that will give them a
job right out of school. And I think there's a
lot to that for the decline. But I think it's
also worth asking is are the communities also not doing
what they're supposed to do and students don't want to
(03:21):
show up for a class and be lectured about their
professor's political opinion. They actually do want to sort of
like have a better sense of knowledge and truth. And
you know, I think that's one of the reasons we've
lost sight of why the humanities is actually very valuable
and actually I think are going to be more valuable
than ever for the way the economy is changing.
Speaker 2 (03:37):
Let's get into that. This is where AI comes in then,
and changing of the economy. How does that fit into
this puzzle and make humanities maybe more valuable.
Speaker 4 (03:47):
Well, I mean, no one knows what AI is going
to mean for the labor market. There's a lot of
doom and gloom. So I'm just going to rely on
I think I mentioned to you I've not actually taken
a lot of humanities in my own education, but I
did take a lot of economic history, uh, just because
I went to college in Scotland where they make you
do that, and so I did study a lot of
the Industrial Revolution and what that did to labor. So
(04:10):
I'm going off my own history education of what I
think could happen with AI, and what we found in
the Industrial Revolution is labor did find a way, but
the found the way if you managed to work with
the new technology rather than be replaced by it. And
so when it comes to artificial intelligence and it can
do thinking, you know, you want to be someone who
(04:31):
can really think well, so you can compliment that, like
you know, you could I use AI right now, and
I'm sure in the future a w'll be more as
like almost like a research assistant for me myself. You know,
it sort of digs up stuff, but I still am
as a critical thinker then think, all right, give this
information AI has given me, I take it to that
next level. So critical thinking skills is a great compliment
(04:53):
to AI. And if you just sort of had this
very reductive simple view of the world, well then you know,
AI can do what you can do. So we really
need to be thoughtful thinkers and like just sort of
learning vocational skills in college, those are the skills they're
going to be replaced. So we really want to learn
how to think well, and how to think critically, and
how to especially people's skills, how to get along with
(05:15):
people different ideas, how to weigh different arguments. I mean,
this is really what you're going to learn. I have
to learn how to do to thrive in the New Economy.
Speaker 2 (05:22):
And we are talking with Bloomberg opinion columnist Alison Schreeger
about how AI can help make humanities degrees more valuable.
And Alison, let me see if I can sum up
what you've just said. I want to make sure I'm
following you here. The student would eventually be competing in
a way with AI, so they'd have to be critical
thinkers in a way artificial intelligence cannot be, and that
(05:45):
gives them the skill that is more marketable, something that
AI doesn't offer.
Speaker 4 (05:51):
Yeah, I mean everyone who is an AI enthusiast tells
me AO would be doing critical thinking. But from well,
I understand at least for large language models, and maybe
things will change. It's really good at taking a lot
of sort of existing information and sort of finding sort
of the most common argument with that, And so I
(06:11):
mean that's useful, that gives you a lot, But when
it comes to sort of coming up with novel information
or sort of being faced with new information, I know
for my own work with statistics, it's less good for that.
So while it's valuable and informs you really being able
to think critically, how to really sort of understand different
arguments and where they're coming at you and how to
synthesize them actually becomes really valuable. And AI is super
(06:33):
helpful but actually doesn't replace you.
Speaker 2 (06:35):
Is critical thinking just too hard? I mean, how did
we get here to the point where critical thinking isn't
valued or isn't taught?
Speaker 4 (06:42):
Well, it is hard, and it's really I got to say.
I mean, I did a PhD, so I got pretty
I guess advanced thinking skills, and I found the process
very unpleasant. It's terrible. I mean it's upsetting as well
for college students of all ages. It always has been,
and I mean, I think this is an issue. It's
not just that the curriculum gotten less critical. It's also
(07:03):
gotten less rigorous, because you know, most ideas you have
when you're young are kind of bad and stupid or derivative,
and you know you need professors to tell you that,
Like yeah, like a gazillion people said that about Plato
with the first time they read it, and they're wrong,
and here's why. And that's unpleasant to hear. I could tell,
I could mark of my own education how upsetting it
was to be told my ideas were derivative or not
(07:25):
very good. But that's how you get better. And I
feel like, you know, the humanities are supposed to be
the tough ones who are like, guess what, you're kind
of dumb. Here's how to think better. And I think
there's a reluctance I noticed when I've teached to sort
of be direct with students about that.
Speaker 2 (07:41):
Now are reluctance to be more direct with students?
Speaker 4 (07:44):
Yeah, as I said, because critical thinking skills are very
unpleasant to acquire. They're incredibly valuable, yes, but they're hard
to teach and they're even more unpleasant to acquire. And
I feel like, you know, humanities are uniquely positioned to
impart that, but just not really doing that work anymore.
Speaker 2 (08:02):
Is this a US phenomenon or is this something we'll
see globally?
Speaker 4 (08:06):
I think it's global. I mean, I'm I said, I
went to a university in Europe, and you know, from
what I observe, I think it's happening there too.
Speaker 2 (08:17):
At the same time, when you have more Americans thinking
that perhaps higher education isn't worth it, do we run
the risk of going too far the other direction?
Speaker 4 (08:27):
Yeah, I mean, it's definitely not as worth it as
it used to be, but it's still worth it. I mean,
all the evidence still suggests that if you do get
a good college degree, and by that I mean go
to a decent school, do a four year degree, it
does pay off. You will not only have higher wages,
but you have more stable wages, you have much less
of an incident of unemployment. So but I do think
(08:48):
that the education isn't maybe as good as it used
to be in a lot of ways depending on what
you study. And so I mean, I think we do
run the risk of you know, the US I think
is often succeeded more as an economy because we've also
had the best universities in the world. And you know,
if we don't really teach people how to be good
thinkers at our universities, then you know, we do run
(09:11):
the risk of people then not going to university, and
then it just becomes a vicious cycle.
Speaker 2 (09:15):
I wonder where trade schools fall in here, because we've
talked before about the need for trade schools and how
we can't just write them off.
Speaker 4 (09:22):
No, they're super important. And you know, I was reading
this article in The Economist about how the trades are
really sort of dominating now the labor market, and it
reminds me, have you seen a recent episode of South
Park where it's always so present, where they have like
(09:43):
this handyman who becomes effectively the Elon Musk of That's
economy because he's the only one who can fix things.
So reading this article in The Economists, it reminded me
of that. So I mean that is also going to
be an important part of the economy. Although, to be honest,
like when I talk to like if a plumber comes
to my apartment or I do have a contractor come, like,
(10:04):
have you've seen their work? Like even there, they're not
just like dirty work anymore. Like I mean, they also
have to use a lot of skills, incorporate technology into
what they do, and they also really have to be
very thoughtful about what they're doing. Their work's getting a
lot more complicated and technical too, So it's not just
a matter of like doing a plumbing apprenticeship and then
you're good to go. I mean they've got to really
(10:25):
engage in, stay current and keep learning too. I mean,
as I said, we've all got to learn how to
be good thinkers. And I mean doing a four year
Lobal Arts degree doesn't mean everyone should do it. I
don't think it's efficient that the entire popular labor force
go through that. But you know, if you are going
to go that route, that's really I think a valuable
path too, and I think we undersell it.
Speaker 2 (10:45):
Alison, thank you for taking the time with me today,
Oh anytime. Alison s Trigger is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist
who covers economics and is a senior Fellow at the
Manhattan Institute. Coming up, we're going to look at the
cold and flu season and how some parents are not
getting flu shots for their kids, and why you're listening
the Bloomberg Opinion.
Speaker 1 (11:12):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Opinion podcast count ut Saturdays
at one and seven pm Eastern on Bloomberg dot com,
the iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business app, or listen
on demand wherever you get your podcasts.
Speaker 2 (11:26):
You're listening to Bloomberg Opinion. I'm Amy Morris, and we
are well into cold and flu season, not just for adults,
but for youngsters too. And while every parent knows the
feeling of helplessness when your little one has a nasty
cow or a fever, not every parent is making sure
their child is vaccinated. Westchester County Health Commissioner doctor Shirlita
Ambler in New York says people need to get those
(11:48):
flu shots, even if they're tired of hearing about vaccines.
Speaker 5 (11:51):
I if anyone understands that there's a lot of vaccine
fatigue out there, but we still have to work to
protect ourselves and our family and everybody that we care about.
Speaker 2 (12:02):
Let's get more on this with Bloomberg opinion columnist Lisa Jarvis.
Lisa covers biotech, healthcare, and the pharmaceutical industry. Lisa, does
that make sense to you that there's just this vaccination
slash shot fatigue and folks are tired of hearing about
it and don't want to deal.
Speaker 6 (12:18):
Yeah, you know, I think that's certainly part of it.
I think there's a confluensive issues potentially happening related to
the rollout of the COVID vaccines, which might have made
it so that people were having a hard time finding
that vaccine and they were planning to get their flu
shot at the same time and didn't do either if
they couldn't find the COVID one. But certainly, you know,
(12:40):
we have heard a lot for a while, every six
months reminders to go get some sort of shot or another,
and you know, I think people are starting to tune
out a little bit. I think there's a number of
things good on and I'm happy to talk about all those.
Speaker 2 (12:53):
Yeah, let's get into that. Why the hesitancy? What are
some of the things that are going on.
Speaker 6 (12:57):
It's easy to kind of reflectively think, oh, it's COVID
vaccine driven hesitancy. That's the reason behind this flu shot
decline in kids. And it's a modest decline, but it
matters because kids already weren't getting vaccinated at the rate
that we'd like to see them at, because they're really
important part of protecting adults when it comes to the flu.
(13:18):
Older adults are the ones who are most vulnerable to
the worst outcomes. But you know, as I mentioned, the
commercial rollout of COVID shots really hit the pediatric vaccines
the hardest, and so parents were scrambling for weeks after
the vaccines were supposed to be initially available looking for
those shots. And any parent that's had their kids vaccinated
nose you only want to go once and get both
(13:41):
shots at the same time, so you don't have the
angst of two trips and more tears potentially, And so
you know, if someone couldn't find a shot, they might
not have gotten it at all. And there were some
wrinkles when it came to coverage of the COVID shot.
Initially not all insurers had the right coding in place,
and so if you went in you had an appointment
and then we're told you were going to have to
(14:02):
pay for it out of pocket, you might have decided
not to get either vaccine. And then anecdotally, you know,
I've heard from pediatricians and I've noticed this in my
own community that there have just been fewer vaccine clinics.
A lot of times pediatricians' offices will run, you know,
several weekends in a row of flu vaccine clinic and
it's just like a mill, bring your whole family in
and get the shots. And a lot of them didn't
(14:24):
do that this year. In part, it seems like because
there's just a shortage of healthcare workers, and so I
think it's a complience of things happening, but all of
it kind of translates into not a great situation.
Speaker 2 (14:37):
Do we know how many kids so far have gotten
the flu shot percentage wise and what the goal is?
Speaker 6 (14:43):
Yeah, so as of early November, because there's a little
lag in the data that we see from CDC the
national numbers where thirty six point five percent of kids
had gotten their shot last year and this year it
was thirty two point six percent. That's the lowest in
five years. Twenty nineteen, the trend had been overall kids
(15:04):
were starting to get more their flu shot more consistently,
and then we saw a little leap that first year
of COVID. I think parents feeling helpless without a COVID shot.
We're pretty good about getting their kids their flu vaccine,
and we've just seen a decline. Since the goal always
is to get seventy percent of the population vaccinated, we
never get to that place in the US, you know,
(15:27):
I think we do the best, which is good with
older folks, but older folks also have immune systems that
just don't aren't as robust even with vaccination, and so
they rely on the rest of us to kind of
help cocoon them from the worst outcomes of the flu.
Speaker 2 (15:41):
You were just talking about the elderly. Let's talk about
that a little bit more. The risk isn't necessarily then,
from what I'm hearing you say, for children per se,
it's for the spread to make sure the kids don't
give it to grandma and grandpa.
Speaker 6 (15:56):
That's right. I mean, just like we've all come to
learn very well with the COVID shots, the flu shot
isn't necessarily going to prevent you from getting the flu,
but but like it does actually help lower the spread
of the virus. And kids are vulnerable to you know,
hospitalizations from the flu, just like they are from COVID.
But really the biggest threat here is to you know,
(16:19):
grandma and grandpa, and so, you know, folks over the
age of sixty five are the ones who end up
with the most hospitalizations and are responsible for, you know,
the majority of deaths. One thing that I always keep
in mind is that there was a study that people
still cite kind of Japan that showed that when you
had a high percentage of school age children vaccinated, you
(16:40):
actually saw fewer deaths among older the older population. And so,
you know, it just is it's I try to think
about that when I think about why it is that,
you know, I take my own kid in to get
her flu shot. It's for her, but it's also for
the people around her.
Speaker 2 (16:54):
Are there efforts being made on the government level, on
the school level, the local level, to get more kids vaccinated.
Is there a push there.
Speaker 6 (17:03):
I think there's always been a push, and the CDC
had a different blue vaccine campaign. They try to change
their messaging up a little bit this year, essentially to
try to get at this idea that it's not gonna
prevent you necessarily from getting the flu, but when you
get the flu, it's not going to be a severe
and they I think, you know, we're seeing mixed success
(17:26):
with that. It's a complicated season, you know, to be fair,
We've got COVID shots that we're rolling out, the flu vaccine,
and then there's new RSV shots for older folks and
in RSV preventive therapy for infants, and so I think
just the messaging has been really muddled because people are
(17:47):
trying to keep track of a lot of things. And
as you know, you pointed out the very beginning, this
is coming amid some fatigue around getting shots in general.
Speaker 2 (17:57):
Are there certain areas of the country that are are
not getting vaccinated? Is it demographically divided?
Speaker 6 (18:03):
Yeah? I mean so, I think one of the reasons
that there's you know, concern around hesitancy is because when
you look at the map of the places that have
dropped the most in terms of kids in flu vaccines.
You know, many of them are in red states, some
of them are in states where the political rhetoric around
vaccination of COVID has been the hottest. And so you
(18:24):
know Florida, for example, which has been in the bottom
kind of twelve states in general in the past when
it comes to vaccinations for the flu for kids, but
this year they saw another drop in their vaccinations. And
you know, we know we've heard that Governor Ronda Santis
in his presidential campaign has really been kind of hitting
(18:45):
on COVID vaccines and initially wasn't even going to participate
in some of the booster rollouts for that, and so
you know there's a worry that that's bleeding over into
other childhood vaccinations.
Speaker 2 (18:56):
I want to talk about that just briefly, because you know, COVID,
a rather vaccination hesitancy or anti vax if you will,
is not new. That's been going on since before COVID.
I'm wondering though, if now that we're seeing parents more
hesitant to get the flu shot for their kids, is
it becoming more mainstream. It used to be such an outlier.
(19:18):
Now are more parents sort of jumping on the anti
vax bandwagon. Where could this wind up?
Speaker 6 (19:23):
Yeah, it's really worrisome, to be honest with you. This
is a thing that I've been trying to watch closely,
and I think everyone is trying to see with every
new scrap of data comes out, you know what it means.
We saw that there was a drop in childhood vaccinations
for kindergarteners. You know, when you go into school for
the first time, there's a series of shots that you
need to have. And fewer kids in January when the
(19:45):
data came out, were up to date in twenty twenty
two than had been in the past, which is concerning.
I think it's hard to unravel if it has to
do with vaccine hesitancy, if it has to do with
fewer people having access to healthcare. You know, I probably
is a number of factors. What does seem to be happening.
They're kind of hardening into you know, I feel really
(20:07):
good about vaccines or I really don't feel good about it,
instead of there's less folks living in that grey area,
and so that's worrisome, and I think, you know, certainly
there's things that we need to be doing to understand
where the demographics and where that's happening, and to be
thinking about how to better target those folks.
Speaker 2 (20:25):
Bloomberg Opinion columnist Lisa Jarvis covers biotech, healthcare, and the
pharmaceutical industry. This is Bloomberg Opinion.
Speaker 1 (20:42):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Opinion podcast Countess Saturdays at
one and seven pm Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the
iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business App, or listen on
demand wherever you get your podcasts.
Speaker 2 (20:57):
This is Bloomberg Opinion. I'm Amy Morris. Home Buyers have
been suffering through some pretty severe whiplash in recent months.
After hitting eight percent in October, mortgage rates are now
kind of flirting with seven percent. There's some signs that
sales and inventory are picking up. Let's learn more about
this where this could be headed. Bloomberg Opinion columnist Connor
(21:19):
Sen joins me now. He is a founder of Peach
Tree Creek Investments and has been following the housing market
very closely. Obviously, now, Connor, what has changed.
Speaker 7 (21:29):
It's really mortgage rates. That's the show stopping story. Where
when rates hit eight in October, I think a lot
of people said this is ridiculous. I'm not going to
try to buy a house. I'm not going to try
to sell a house. It's just it's broken. And then
mortgage rates just have basically crashed over the past month
due to a decline in inflation to some extent, some
softening in the economy, and a belief that the FED
(21:50):
will cut rates perhaps in the first half of next year,
maybe as soon as March. And so rates have come
down a lot, and it happening at a time of
the year when people typically aren't buying houses. Maybe hasn't
led people to appreciate that, but I think it sets
the housing market up for a really interesting January.
Speaker 2 (22:06):
The US housing market, though, has been defying expectations. When
you think it's going to zig its zags. Is that
going to continue?
Speaker 8 (22:14):
I think so.
Speaker 7 (22:14):
And the same thing happened a year ago. If you're
a call, where rates hit seven in October twenty twenty two,
and that was at the time sort of unheard of,
and people gave up on the housing market for the year,
and then people came back in January and a lot
of people who felt like they had to buy a house,
they just went out there and tried to look and
at the time it was the new home market that
(22:34):
had supplied because builders had built up these big inventory
levels when rates were lower and they had to sell them.
So builders were in a position to sell homes to
people who suddenly needed to buy them, in some cases
using mortgage rate buydowns to make the rate more affordable.
And that led to the first quarter of the year
being surprisingly strong for the new home market. And I
think now that we're seeing some signs of loosening in
(22:56):
the resale market on the inventory side. We could see
the same for existing home sales in the first quarter
of twenty twenty.
Speaker 2 (23:02):
Four, so we have seen this pattern before then as
recently as this time last year.
Speaker 7 (23:07):
Exactly. It really is kind of an eerie groundhog day
where you see mortgage purchase applications pick up in November,
but people are busy with the holidays, maybe not paying attention,
but you see signs in the weekly data that people
are responsive to rates, and now that there's more supply,
there's more choice for buyers, and I think again we're
going to get past Christmas in the new year. First
couple weeks of January, people went out there and you
(23:29):
could see a lot more activity than people think.
Speaker 2 (23:31):
So that's when home buyers are going to start to
see or feel that break and that pressure that you've
been talking about coming up in January, the first quarter
of twenty twenty four.
Speaker 7 (23:42):
Right, the seasonality in the housing market's really gotten weird
since COVID, and I think maybe a part of it
was COVID. Part of it just mortgage rates are so
high that or went from so low to so high
that it's a scrambled things. And then just the general
lack of inventory has made it so that if you
want to sell home, you can almost always sell it,
no matter what time of the year you want. And
then there are so many people looking to buy that
(24:03):
you do have people looking to buy in November December
just because they didn't they weren't able to in May, June, July.
Speaker 2 (24:09):
You know, let me clarify something with you, or get
you to help me clarify it. You know, we started
this by talking about home buyer suffering through the whiplash,
and now they're about to get a break. What's that
break going to look like exactly? Will it be stability,
will it be affordability? What's the break they're waiting for?
Speaker 7 (24:28):
I think mortgage rates being lower all else EQL makes
affordability better. I think the home price conversation is tricky,
and we can get into that a little bit later,
but I think the real one is just that there
will be more inventory, and so if you've been feeling
like there's nothing to buy, there'll be a little bit
more choice. And that goes for first time buyers as
well as people who have a home to sell before
they can buy. So if maybe you haven't been selling
(24:50):
your home because you haven't found the one you like,
and now if you do find one you like, you
can sell your own home, which then creates inventory for
somebody else. So it kind of just unfreezes the market
a little bit.
Speaker 2 (25:00):
And we are talking with Bloomberg opinion columnist Connor Sen
about home buyers finally starting to see a little bit
of light at the end of the tunnel. However, Connor,
you just said that the outlook for prices is tricky.
Speaker 7 (25:11):
How so I think you're rising inventory all SEQUL should
put a little bit of downward pressure on prices because
maybe price is held up this year just because there
was nothing to buy and so there just wasn't an
ability for prices to fall when there's always a buyer
to step in whenever anything went for sale. So like Redfin,
the online brokerage site, predicts that home prices will fall
(25:31):
one percent twenty twenty four. And my view is that
could they fall a little bit, sure, could they rise
a little bit if mortgage rates fall, definitely, But it's
really I think people have been looking for shelter. Think
of it as are you looking for shelter and shelter
that you own? And if so, then you should be
focused on can I just secure the house I want?
And am I going to pay two percent too much
(25:53):
or too little? I don't know. I don't think you're
looking at a big decline or big rise in either case.
It's really just about it should be easier to find
the home you want in twenty twenty four.
Speaker 2 (26:02):
Let's get a little more granular with this. There was
a time, particularly during and just after COVID, when people
were just throwing money at realtors and throwing money at sellers.
Whatever you're asking price is, I'll top it by another
twenty grand, and they were selling houses. We're not seeing that.
(26:22):
You don't anticipate that, do you?
Speaker 8 (26:25):
No?
Speaker 7 (26:25):
I don't think we're going to see big price booms
like that. You might see bidding wars again, but that
will be more about four people competing for one house
and only one person can get it, even if I
don't know if it'll be somebody will pay ten percent
over just that, There's still are only so many houses
to go around, and I think you will see more
inventory next year, more more sellers, more new listings, but
buyer demand could come in strong, just sort of people
(26:48):
coming off the sidelines in response to not just rate stability,
but rates declining.
Speaker 2 (26:52):
And are we seeing more of the flip side of that,
coin sellers who are basically cleaning out a house, not
really doing much with it cosmetically, not worrying about an inspection,
and just selling it as is and getting it off
their plate.
Speaker 1 (27:07):
I think so.
Speaker 7 (27:07):
And when inventory is low, they have the ability to
do that, to just wave inspections and not do a
whole lot of work because they know there is a
buyer for the home, even in the shape it's in.
And so again we'll see more inventory next year. I
don't think it's going to be just a deluge, but
it should be better than twenty twenty three, and sort
of in my business. Just the direction and the change
is more important than the levels.
Speaker 2 (27:28):
So the problem had been that people weren't selling. Why
are they more motivated to sell now? I mean, is
it beyond just the interest rates?
Speaker 7 (27:36):
It's time. So yeah, rates were low until about April
May of twenty twenty two, and then rates shoot up.
If you're a seller, you think, I don't want to
get in there, I'll just wait until rates come down
or whatever, and then time passes and eventually you just
have to sell in a lot of cases, and sort
of the interesting thing is one of the places where
inventory is rising the most right now is Florida as
(27:58):
well as Arizona, and I want or if it's because
there are more retirees there, and so you do have
more people just you know, dying or having to move
into assisted living, and just you have people who sort
of physically can't afford to wait and they're putting their
homes in the market or they're a status putting their
homes in the market.
Speaker 2 (28:14):
Now, you had said earlier in this interview that we've
seen this before. Is this now the new pattern? Is
this what we need to start anticipating in the next
few years? Is this sustainable?
Speaker 7 (28:29):
I think twenty twenty three was peak mortgage rate lock
in because you had sort of the most number of
people with three percent mortgage rates that you'll ever see,
and they also had had them for a very little
amount of time. They hadn't been in their homes that long,
so they could afford to wait a year and just
not sell their home and wait for things to settle out.
And now every year that passes there'll be fewer people
with those pandemic error mortgages and more people who, whether
(28:51):
it's for marriage or kids or death or divorce, whatever,
feel they need to sell. And so I think from
here inventories likely tick up, not rapid, but I think
you'll see more supply in twenty twenty four than you
did in twenty three, probably more in twenty five than
you will in twenty four, and so it should get
largely better from here.
Speaker 2 (29:08):
So more supply in the coming year, more supply possibly
the year after that. If I were looking to buy
a home, maybe hustle and strike while the iron is hot.
Speaker 7 (29:20):
There are a ton of buyers out there who want
to come in, want to find a home. And again
we saw in the new home market this year where
I think if you bought that home in January when
builders were still looking to sell and there were still
options out there, they're pretty happy versus people who waited
maybe thought mortgage ridge come down, thought prices would come down.
And I think you want to get out there before
spring and there's more of awareness that, oh, rates have
(29:43):
come down, people are looking to buy. Beat the crowd
would be my advice to people.
Speaker 2 (29:47):
When you are doing these types of analyzes, how long
does it take for the market to sort of catch
up with what it is you're saying.
Speaker 7 (29:53):
Well, the nice thing about housing is that there's pretty
like certainly around this time of the year, there's pretty
predictable seasonality. Even if you I wanted to buy a
home today, it's not like maybe your wilter's on vacation,
maybe the appraiser or some part of that chain that
you need to actually secure that home can't be reached,
and so you're kind of forced to wait until the
new year. So I think the next three to four
(30:14):
weeks it's going to be quiet just because you can't
get people and so, but I think you will see
signs of this by mid January.
Speaker 6 (30:21):
If I'm right, all.
Speaker 2 (30:22):
Right, Connor, We're going to wait and see if you
are right. Thank you so much for joining us.
Speaker 7 (30:27):
Thanks Amy.
Speaker 2 (30:28):
The US government's next set of dietary guidelines for twenty
twenty five may include warnings against ultra processed foods, but
nonprofits say, don't bet on that. There are just too
many committee members with conflicts of interest. Bloomberg opinion columnist
Bobby Ghost joins US. Now, Bobby first, set us straight.
What's the difference between a processed food and an ultra
(30:51):
processed food?
Speaker 8 (30:52):
Just cooking food makes it processed, right, But ultra process
food is food that is that essentially comes out of
a substantial degree comes out of a laboratory. I mean
they come out of factories, but they're designed in laboratory.
They're designed using the science of chemistry, and they're brought
(31:13):
together and you know the way the US federal government
defines that. It can be quite confusing. If you have
a is bacon a ultra processed food or a processed food?
If you have is bread processed or ultra process Take
a guess. Most breads are ultra processed foods. You and
(31:36):
I most people don't really think of bread like that,
but particularly bread that is designed to survive for several days,
which is not a natural thing. In bread, long life
breads a certainly ultra process long like milk is ultra processed.
All kinds of things are ultra processed.
Speaker 2 (31:51):
With so much evidence though that all these foods are
bad for you, certainly the Committee would be mentioning them
in these guidelines, you would.
Speaker 8 (31:58):
Think, except, of course, the Committee for decades has been
under scrutiny, to put it politely, for pressured by or
influenced by big food, the food industry through lobbyists. Many
members of the Committee have been shown to have conflicts
(32:18):
of interest, to have received money from big food to
conduct research, let's say, and that has made its guidelines
suspect in the eyes of a lot of people, and
a lot of people who've been on the committee before
say that they come under a lot of this pressure.
Part of the problem is that the USDA, the Department
(32:41):
of Agriculture. These guidelines come out from the USDA and
the Health and Human Services, But the USDA's primary function
is to try and promote the product of American agriculture,
you know, to promote the kinds of foods that are
produced by American farmers, and quite often American farmers are
(33:03):
producing foods for the food industry, which then takes this
stuff and processes it and ultra process it, if you like,
and puts it on our shelves and in our restaurants
and our fast food joints. And so there is a
direct conflict of interest for the USDA itself.
Speaker 2 (33:23):
So then what's the point of having these food guidelines
every few years?
Speaker 8 (33:27):
Therefore, nutrition is they are for policymakers. They're not for
you and me. They're not really for consumers. There's a
whole separate thing that is designed for consumers, and that
is called my plate. You'll remember the food pyramid. You'll
have seen it in your school, right. My plate replaced
the food pyramid. Instead of a pyramid, it's the shape
(33:47):
of a plate. It's like a pie chart that shows
you what proportions of different things you should eat. But
here's the thing that too, is produced by the government,
the Obama administration, particularly Michelle Obama, the first Lady, put
quite a lot of her personal energy into it. But
that's kind of fallen by the wayside. Even those who
have heard of it. A tiny, tiny fraction of people
(34:10):
say they've tried to live by the prescriptions of my play.
The larger point is that most people know that processed
foods aren't good. If the government is serious about getting
people to eat fewer processed foods, the solution is not
that difficult. You tax these foods, you subsidize the more
(34:32):
wholesome foods. But of course that would involve going against
very powerful lobbyists, and the political climate just simply does
not exist at the moment for that sort of action.
Speaker 2 (34:44):
Bobby goes. She is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering culture,
and that does it for this week's Bloomberg Opinion. We're
produced by Eric Mallow. Find all of these columns on
the Bloomberg terminal, and we're available as a podcast on Apple,
Spotify or your favorite podcast platform. Stay with us. Today's
stories and global business headlines are coming up. I'm Amy Morris,
and this is Bloomberg.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Opinion podcast count US Saturdays
at one in seven pm Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com,
the iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business App, or listen
on demand wherever you get your podcasts.
Speaker 2 (00:15):
Welcome to Bloomberg Opinion. I'm Amy Morris. This week we
look at the flu shot. Fewer kids are getting vaccinated
for flu season, and that might actually pose a bigger
problem for the older folks around them, like their grandparents. Also,
after some severe whiplash in recent months, it looks like
home buyers are about to catch a break, and the
(00:36):
USDA is releasing its food guidelines soon. But if you're
waiting for a warning against ultra processed foods, you might
be waiting a while. But first, let's begin with the
humanities and social sciences. Their popularity in the US has
been waiting in recent years. Bill Falls is dean of
the College of Arts and Sciences at the University of Vermont.
Earlier this year, he told a local television station that
(00:59):
the school has trimmed its budget, letting about five percent
of their full time professors go and transitioning others to
part time.
Speaker 3 (01:07):
The concern that folks have had about taking away from
the humanities. Maybe gets confused to think that somehow we
don't value the humanities or don't want the humanities to thrive.
I think it's just because of this shift in student interest.
Speaker 2 (01:23):
It is a shift, he says, that started to show
up back in twenty ten, as many students focus on
stem fields with skills more directly applicable to their careers.
But perhaps the humanities and social sciences have failed to
train students to be critical thinkers, and that may be
where artificial intelligence comes in. We get more on this
(01:44):
with Bloomberg opinion columnist Alison Schrager, who covers economics and
is a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute. Alison, why
do you say in your column on the Bloomberg Terminal
that the arts are no longer teaching students to be
critical thinkers?
Speaker 4 (01:58):
Well, I mean, traditionally, you know, you would read the
great books, you would get this very sort of like
great nuanced view of history. But it seems like more
and more that, I mean, at least we keep seeing
coming out of universities is a simple, more reductive view
of the world. And you know that also just doesn't
(02:18):
really sort of ask the big questions and come up
with a sort of a way of understanding very complex
issues or really a great understanding of history. It seems
like from definitely what we've been told or my friends
who teach in the humanities, people, you're getting people they've
sort of gone away from that, taken sort of a
different view. Some call it postmodern, and you know, I mean,
(02:40):
there's a lot of different viewpoints of history. That's certainly
a valid one, but the problem is when it takes over,
you don't really sort of get those critical thinking skills
of seeing different problems from different perspectives.
Speaker 2 (02:53):
And it looks like that not only is enrollment in
humanity's dropping, but more Americans are actually questioning the value
of a college education.
Speaker 4 (03:01):
Yeah, and everyone keeps saying that that's because students just
you know, college has got a lot more expensive, and
they want to get value for money. They want to go,
they want to study something that will give them a
job right out of school. And I think there's a
lot to that for the decline. But I think it's
also worth asking is are the communities also not doing
what they're supposed to do and students don't want to
(03:21):
show up for a class and be lectured about their
professor's political opinion. They actually do want to sort of
like have a better sense of knowledge and truth. And
you know, I think that's one of the reasons we've
lost sight of why the humanities is actually very valuable
and actually I think are going to be more valuable
than ever for the way the economy is changing.
Speaker 2 (03:37):
Let's get into that. This is where AI comes in then,
and changing of the economy. How does that fit into
this puzzle and make humanities maybe more valuable.
Speaker 4 (03:47):
Well, I mean, no one knows what AI is going
to mean for the labor market. There's a lot of
doom and gloom. So I'm just going to rely on
I think I mentioned to you I've not actually taken
a lot of humanities in my own education, but I
did take a lot of economic history, uh, just because
I went to college in Scotland where they make you
do that, and so I did study a lot of
the Industrial Revolution and what that did to labor. So
(04:10):
I'm going off my own history education of what I
think could happen with AI, and what we found in
the Industrial Revolution is labor did find a way, but
the found the way if you managed to work with
the new technology rather than be replaced by it. And
so when it comes to artificial intelligence and it can
do thinking, you know, you want to be someone who
(04:31):
can really think well, so you can compliment that, like
you know, you could I use AI right now, and
I'm sure in the future a w'll be more as
like almost like a research assistant for me myself. You know,
it sort of digs up stuff, but I still am
as a critical thinker then think, all right, give this
information AI has given me, I take it to that
next level. So critical thinking skills is a great compliment
(04:53):
to AI. And if you just sort of had this
very reductive simple view of the world, well then you know,
AI can do what you can do. So we really
need to be thoughtful thinkers and like just sort of
learning vocational skills in college, those are the skills they're
going to be replaced. So we really want to learn
how to think well, and how to think critically, and
how to especially people's skills, how to get along with
(05:15):
people different ideas, how to weigh different arguments. I mean,
this is really what you're going to learn. I have
to learn how to do to thrive in the New Economy.
Speaker 2 (05:22):
And we are talking with Bloomberg opinion columnist Alison Schreeger
about how AI can help make humanities degrees more valuable.
And Alison, let me see if I can sum up
what you've just said. I want to make sure I'm
following you here. The student would eventually be competing in
a way with AI, so they'd have to be critical
thinkers in a way artificial intelligence cannot be, and that
(05:45):
gives them the skill that is more marketable, something that
AI doesn't offer.
Speaker 4 (05:51):
Yeah, I mean everyone who is an AI enthusiast tells
me AO would be doing critical thinking. But from well,
I understand at least for large language models, and maybe
things will change. It's really good at taking a lot
of sort of existing information and sort of finding sort
of the most common argument with that, And so I
(06:11):
mean that's useful, that gives you a lot, But when
it comes to sort of coming up with novel information
or sort of being faced with new information, I know
for my own work with statistics, it's less good for that.
So while it's valuable and informs you really being able
to think critically, how to really sort of understand different
arguments and where they're coming at you and how to
synthesize them actually becomes really valuable. And AI is super
(06:33):
helpful but actually doesn't replace you.
Speaker 2 (06:35):
Is critical thinking just too hard? I mean, how did
we get here to the point where critical thinking isn't
valued or isn't taught?
Speaker 4 (06:42):
Well, it is hard, and it's really I got to say.
I mean, I did a PhD, so I got pretty
I guess advanced thinking skills, and I found the process
very unpleasant. It's terrible. I mean it's upsetting as well
for college students of all ages. It always has been,
and I mean, I think this is an issue. It's
not just that the curriculum gotten less critical. It's also
(07:03):
gotten less rigorous, because you know, most ideas you have
when you're young are kind of bad and stupid or derivative,
and you know you need professors to tell you that,
Like yeah, like a gazillion people said that about Plato
with the first time they read it, and they're wrong,
and here's why. And that's unpleasant to hear. I could tell,
I could mark of my own education how upsetting it
was to be told my ideas were derivative or not
(07:25):
very good. But that's how you get better. And I
feel like, you know, the humanities are supposed to be
the tough ones who are like, guess what, you're kind
of dumb. Here's how to think better. And I think
there's a reluctance I noticed when I've teached to sort
of be direct with students about that.
Speaker 2 (07:41):
Now are reluctance to be more direct with students?
Speaker 4 (07:44):
Yeah, as I said, because critical thinking skills are very
unpleasant to acquire. They're incredibly valuable, yes, but they're hard
to teach and they're even more unpleasant to acquire. And
I feel like, you know, humanities are uniquely positioned to
impart that, but just not really doing that work anymore.
Speaker 2 (08:02):
Is this a US phenomenon or is this something we'll
see globally?
Speaker 4 (08:06):
I think it's global. I mean, I'm I said, I
went to a university in Europe, and you know, from
what I observe, I think it's happening there too.
Speaker 2 (08:17):
At the same time, when you have more Americans thinking
that perhaps higher education isn't worth it, do we run
the risk of going too far the other direction?
Speaker 4 (08:27):
Yeah, I mean, it's definitely not as worth it as
it used to be, but it's still worth it. I mean,
all the evidence still suggests that if you do get
a good college degree, and by that I mean go
to a decent school, do a four year degree, it
does pay off. You will not only have higher wages,
but you have more stable wages, you have much less
of an incident of unemployment. So but I do think
(08:48):
that the education isn't maybe as good as it used
to be in a lot of ways depending on what
you study. And so I mean, I think we do
run the risk of you know, the US I think
is often succeeded more as an economy because we've also
had the best universities in the world. And you know,
if we don't really teach people how to be good
thinkers at our universities, then you know, we do run
(09:11):
the risk of people then not going to university, and
then it just becomes a vicious cycle.
Speaker 2 (09:15):
I wonder where trade schools fall in here, because we've
talked before about the need for trade schools and how
we can't just write them off.
Speaker 4 (09:22):
No, they're super important. And you know, I was reading
this article in The Economist about how the trades are
really sort of dominating now the labor market, and it
reminds me, have you seen a recent episode of South
Park where it's always so present, where they have like
(09:43):
this handyman who becomes effectively the Elon Musk of That's
economy because he's the only one who can fix things.
So reading this article in The Economists, it reminded me
of that. So I mean that is also going to
be an important part of the economy. Although, to be honest,
like when I talk to like if a plumber comes
to my apartment or I do have a contractor come, like,
(10:04):
have you've seen their work? Like even there, they're not
just like dirty work anymore. Like I mean, they also
have to use a lot of skills, incorporate technology into
what they do, and they also really have to be
very thoughtful about what they're doing. Their work's getting a
lot more complicated and technical too, So it's not just
a matter of like doing a plumbing apprenticeship and then
you're good to go. I mean they've got to really
(10:25):
engage in, stay current and keep learning too. I mean,
as I said, we've all got to learn how to
be good thinkers. And I mean doing a four year
Lobal Arts degree doesn't mean everyone should do it. I
don't think it's efficient that the entire popular labor force
go through that. But you know, if you are going
to go that route, that's really I think a valuable
path too, and I think we undersell it.
Speaker 2 (10:45):
Alison, thank you for taking the time with me today,
Oh anytime. Alison s Trigger is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist
who covers economics and is a senior Fellow at the
Manhattan Institute. Coming up, we're going to look at the
cold and flu season and how some parents are not
getting flu shots for their kids, and why you're listening
the Bloomberg Opinion.
Speaker 1 (11:12):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Opinion podcast count ut Saturdays
at one and seven pm Eastern on Bloomberg dot com,
the iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business app, or listen
on demand wherever you get your podcasts.
Speaker 2 (11:26):
You're listening to Bloomberg Opinion. I'm Amy Morris, and we
are well into cold and flu season, not just for adults,
but for youngsters too. And while every parent knows the
feeling of helplessness when your little one has a nasty
cow or a fever, not every parent is making sure
their child is vaccinated. Westchester County Health Commissioner doctor Shirlita
Ambler in New York says people need to get those
(11:48):
flu shots, even if they're tired of hearing about vaccines.
Speaker 5 (11:51):
I if anyone understands that there's a lot of vaccine
fatigue out there, but we still have to work to
protect ourselves and our family and everybody that we care about.
Speaker 2 (12:02):
Let's get more on this with Bloomberg opinion columnist Lisa Jarvis.
Lisa covers biotech, healthcare, and the pharmaceutical industry. Lisa, does
that make sense to you that there's just this vaccination
slash shot fatigue and folks are tired of hearing about
it and don't want to deal.
Speaker 6 (12:18):
Yeah, you know, I think that's certainly part of it.
I think there's a confluensive issues potentially happening related to
the rollout of the COVID vaccines, which might have made
it so that people were having a hard time finding
that vaccine and they were planning to get their flu
shot at the same time and didn't do either if
they couldn't find the COVID one. But certainly, you know,
(12:40):
we have heard a lot for a while, every six
months reminders to go get some sort of shot or another,
and you know, I think people are starting to tune
out a little bit. I think there's a number of
things good on and I'm happy to talk about all those.
Speaker 2 (12:53):
Yeah, let's get into that. Why the hesitancy? What are
some of the things that are going on.
Speaker 6 (12:57):
It's easy to kind of reflectively think, oh, it's COVID
vaccine driven hesitancy. That's the reason behind this flu shot
decline in kids. And it's a modest decline, but it
matters because kids already weren't getting vaccinated at the rate
that we'd like to see them at, because they're really
important part of protecting adults when it comes to the flu.
(13:18):
Older adults are the ones who are most vulnerable to
the worst outcomes. But you know, as I mentioned, the
commercial rollout of COVID shots really hit the pediatric vaccines
the hardest, and so parents were scrambling for weeks after
the vaccines were supposed to be initially available looking for
those shots. And any parent that's had their kids vaccinated
nose you only want to go once and get both
(13:41):
shots at the same time, so you don't have the
angst of two trips and more tears potentially, And so
you know, if someone couldn't find a shot, they might
not have gotten it at all. And there were some
wrinkles when it came to coverage of the COVID shot.
Initially not all insurers had the right coding in place,
and so if you went in you had an appointment
and then we're told you were going to have to
(14:02):
pay for it out of pocket, you might have decided
not to get either vaccine. And then anecdotally, you know,
I've heard from pediatricians and I've noticed this in my
own community that there have just been fewer vaccine clinics.
A lot of times pediatricians' offices will run, you know,
several weekends in a row of flu vaccine clinic and
it's just like a mill, bring your whole family in
and get the shots. And a lot of them didn't
(14:24):
do that this year. In part, it seems like because
there's just a shortage of healthcare workers, and so I
think it's a complience of things happening, but all of
it kind of translates into not a great situation.
Speaker 2 (14:37):
Do we know how many kids so far have gotten
the flu shot percentage wise and what the goal is?
Speaker 6 (14:43):
Yeah, so as of early November, because there's a little
lag in the data that we see from CDC the
national numbers where thirty six point five percent of kids
had gotten their shot last year and this year it
was thirty two point six percent. That's the lowest in
five years. Twenty nineteen, the trend had been overall kids
(15:04):
were starting to get more their flu shot more consistently,
and then we saw a little leap that first year
of COVID. I think parents feeling helpless without a COVID shot.
We're pretty good about getting their kids their flu vaccine,
and we've just seen a decline. Since the goal always
is to get seventy percent of the population vaccinated, we
never get to that place in the US, you know,
(15:27):
I think we do the best, which is good with
older folks, but older folks also have immune systems that
just don't aren't as robust even with vaccination, and so
they rely on the rest of us to kind of
help cocoon them from the worst outcomes of the flu.
Speaker 2 (15:41):
You were just talking about the elderly. Let's talk about
that a little bit more. The risk isn't necessarily then,
from what I'm hearing you say, for children per se,
it's for the spread to make sure the kids don't
give it to grandma and grandpa.
Speaker 6 (15:56):
That's right. I mean, just like we've all come to
learn very well with the COVID shots, the flu shot
isn't necessarily going to prevent you from getting the flu,
but but like it does actually help lower the spread
of the virus. And kids are vulnerable to you know,
hospitalizations from the flu, just like they are from COVID.
But really the biggest threat here is to you know,
(16:19):
grandma and grandpa, and so, you know, folks over the
age of sixty five are the ones who end up
with the most hospitalizations and are responsible for, you know,
the majority of deaths. One thing that I always keep
in mind is that there was a study that people
still cite kind of Japan that showed that when you
had a high percentage of school age children vaccinated, you
(16:40):
actually saw fewer deaths among older the older population. And so,
you know, it just is it's I try to think
about that when I think about why it is that,
you know, I take my own kid in to get
her flu shot. It's for her, but it's also for
the people around her.
Speaker 2 (16:54):
Are there efforts being made on the government level, on
the school level, the local level, to get more kids vaccinated.
Is there a push there.
Speaker 6 (17:03):
I think there's always been a push, and the CDC
had a different blue vaccine campaign. They try to change
their messaging up a little bit this year, essentially to
try to get at this idea that it's not gonna
prevent you necessarily from getting the flu, but when you
get the flu, it's not going to be a severe
and they I think, you know, we're seeing mixed success
(17:26):
with that. It's a complicated season, you know, to be fair,
We've got COVID shots that we're rolling out, the flu vaccine,
and then there's new RSV shots for older folks and
in RSV preventive therapy for infants, and so I think
just the messaging has been really muddled because people are
(17:47):
trying to keep track of a lot of things. And
as you know, you pointed out the very beginning, this
is coming amid some fatigue around getting shots in general.
Speaker 2 (17:57):
Are there certain areas of the country that are are
not getting vaccinated? Is it demographically divided?
Speaker 6 (18:03):
Yeah? I mean so, I think one of the reasons
that there's you know, concern around hesitancy is because when
you look at the map of the places that have
dropped the most in terms of kids in flu vaccines.
You know, many of them are in red states, some
of them are in states where the political rhetoric around
vaccination of COVID has been the hottest. And so you
(18:24):
know Florida, for example, which has been in the bottom
kind of twelve states in general in the past when
it comes to vaccinations for the flu for kids, but
this year they saw another drop in their vaccinations. And
you know, we know we've heard that Governor Ronda Santis
in his presidential campaign has really been kind of hitting
(18:45):
on COVID vaccines and initially wasn't even going to participate
in some of the booster rollouts for that, and so
you know there's a worry that that's bleeding over into
other childhood vaccinations.
Speaker 2 (18:56):
I want to talk about that just briefly, because you know, COVID,
a rather vaccination hesitancy or anti vax if you will,
is not new. That's been going on since before COVID.
I'm wondering though, if now that we're seeing parents more
hesitant to get the flu shot for their kids, is
it becoming more mainstream. It used to be such an outlier.
(19:18):
Now are more parents sort of jumping on the anti
vax bandwagon. Where could this wind up?
Speaker 6 (19:23):
Yeah, it's really worrisome, to be honest with you. This
is a thing that I've been trying to watch closely,
and I think everyone is trying to see with every
new scrap of data comes out, you know what it means.
We saw that there was a drop in childhood vaccinations
for kindergarteners. You know, when you go into school for
the first time, there's a series of shots that you
need to have. And fewer kids in January when the
(19:45):
data came out, were up to date in twenty twenty
two than had been in the past, which is concerning.
I think it's hard to unravel if it has to
do with vaccine hesitancy, if it has to do with
fewer people having access to healthcare. You know, I probably
is a number of factors. What does seem to be happening.
They're kind of hardening into you know, I feel really
(20:07):
good about vaccines or I really don't feel good about it,
instead of there's less folks living in that grey area,
and so that's worrisome, and I think, you know, certainly
there's things that we need to be doing to understand
where the demographics and where that's happening, and to be
thinking about how to better target those folks.
Speaker 2 (20:25):
Bloomberg Opinion columnist Lisa Jarvis covers biotech, healthcare, and the
pharmaceutical industry. This is Bloomberg Opinion.
Speaker 1 (20:42):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Opinion podcast Countess Saturdays at
one and seven pm Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the
iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business App, or listen on
demand wherever you get your podcasts.
Speaker 2 (20:57):
This is Bloomberg Opinion. I'm Amy Morris. Home Buyers have
been suffering through some pretty severe whiplash in recent months.
After hitting eight percent in October, mortgage rates are now
kind of flirting with seven percent. There's some signs that
sales and inventory are picking up. Let's learn more about
this where this could be headed. Bloomberg Opinion columnist Connor
(21:19):
Sen joins me now. He is a founder of Peach
Tree Creek Investments and has been following the housing market
very closely. Obviously, now, Connor, what has changed.
Speaker 7 (21:29):
It's really mortgage rates. That's the show stopping story. Where
when rates hit eight in October, I think a lot
of people said this is ridiculous. I'm not going to
try to buy a house. I'm not going to try
to sell a house. It's just it's broken. And then
mortgage rates just have basically crashed over the past month
due to a decline in inflation to some extent, some
softening in the economy, and a belief that the FED
(21:50):
will cut rates perhaps in the first half of next year,
maybe as soon as March. And so rates have come
down a lot, and it happening at a time of
the year when people typically aren't buying houses. Maybe hasn't
led people to appreciate that, but I think it sets
the housing market up for a really interesting January.
Speaker 2 (22:06):
The US housing market, though, has been defying expectations. When
you think it's going to zig its zags. Is that
going to continue?
Speaker 8 (22:14):
I think so.
Speaker 7 (22:14):
And the same thing happened a year ago. If you're
a call, where rates hit seven in October twenty twenty two,
and that was at the time sort of unheard of,
and people gave up on the housing market for the year,
and then people came back in January and a lot
of people who felt like they had to buy a house,
they just went out there and tried to look and
at the time it was the new home market that
(22:34):
had supplied because builders had built up these big inventory
levels when rates were lower and they had to sell them.
So builders were in a position to sell homes to
people who suddenly needed to buy them, in some cases
using mortgage rate buydowns to make the rate more affordable.
And that led to the first quarter of the year
being surprisingly strong for the new home market. And I
think now that we're seeing some signs of loosening in
(22:56):
the resale market on the inventory side. We could see
the same for existing home sales in the first quarter
of twenty twenty.
Speaker 2 (23:02):
Four, so we have seen this pattern before then as
recently as this time last year.
Speaker 7 (23:07):
Exactly. It really is kind of an eerie groundhog day
where you see mortgage purchase applications pick up in November,
but people are busy with the holidays, maybe not paying attention,
but you see signs in the weekly data that people
are responsive to rates, and now that there's more supply,
there's more choice for buyers, and I think again we're
going to get past Christmas in the new year. First
couple weeks of January, people went out there and you
(23:29):
could see a lot more activity than people think.
Speaker 2 (23:31):
So that's when home buyers are going to start to
see or feel that break and that pressure that you've
been talking about coming up in January, the first quarter
of twenty twenty four.
Speaker 7 (23:42):
Right, the seasonality in the housing market's really gotten weird
since COVID, and I think maybe a part of it
was COVID. Part of it just mortgage rates are so
high that or went from so low to so high
that it's a scrambled things. And then just the general
lack of inventory has made it so that if you
want to sell home, you can almost always sell it,
no matter what time of the year you want. And
then there are so many people looking to buy that
(24:03):
you do have people looking to buy in November December
just because they didn't they weren't able to in May, June, July.
Speaker 2 (24:09):
You know, let me clarify something with you, or get
you to help me clarify it. You know, we started
this by talking about home buyer suffering through the whiplash,
and now they're about to get a break. What's that
break going to look like exactly? Will it be stability,
will it be affordability? What's the break they're waiting for?
Speaker 7 (24:28):
I think mortgage rates being lower all else EQL makes
affordability better. I think the home price conversation is tricky,
and we can get into that a little bit later,
but I think the real one is just that there
will be more inventory, and so if you've been feeling
like there's nothing to buy, there'll be a little bit
more choice. And that goes for first time buyers as
well as people who have a home to sell before
they can buy. So if maybe you haven't been selling
(24:50):
your home because you haven't found the one you like,
and now if you do find one you like, you
can sell your own home, which then creates inventory for
somebody else. So it kind of just unfreezes the market
a little bit.
Speaker 2 (25:00):
And we are talking with Bloomberg opinion columnist Connor Sen
about home buyers finally starting to see a little bit
of light at the end of the tunnel. However, Connor,
you just said that the outlook for prices is tricky.
Speaker 7 (25:11):
How so I think you're rising inventory all SEQUL should
put a little bit of downward pressure on prices because
maybe price is held up this year just because there
was nothing to buy and so there just wasn't an
ability for prices to fall when there's always a buyer
to step in whenever anything went for sale. So like Redfin,
the online brokerage site, predicts that home prices will fall
(25:31):
one percent twenty twenty four. And my view is that
could they fall a little bit, sure, could they rise
a little bit if mortgage rates fall, definitely, But it's
really I think people have been looking for shelter. Think
of it as are you looking for shelter and shelter
that you own? And if so, then you should be
focused on can I just secure the house I want?
And am I going to pay two percent too much
(25:53):
or too little? I don't know. I don't think you're
looking at a big decline or big rise in either case.
It's really just about it should be easier to find
the home you want in twenty twenty four.
Speaker 2 (26:02):
Let's get a little more granular with this. There was
a time, particularly during and just after COVID, when people
were just throwing money at realtors and throwing money at sellers.
Whatever you're asking price is, I'll top it by another
twenty grand, and they were selling houses. We're not seeing that.
(26:22):
You don't anticipate that, do you?
Speaker 8 (26:25):
No?
Speaker 7 (26:25):
I don't think we're going to see big price booms
like that. You might see bidding wars again, but that
will be more about four people competing for one house
and only one person can get it, even if I
don't know if it'll be somebody will pay ten percent
over just that, There's still are only so many houses
to go around, and I think you will see more
inventory next year, more more sellers, more new listings, but
buyer demand could come in strong, just sort of people
(26:48):
coming off the sidelines in response to not just rate stability,
but rates declining.
Speaker 2 (26:52):
And are we seeing more of the flip side of that,
coin sellers who are basically cleaning out a house, not
really doing much with it cosmetically, not worrying about an inspection,
and just selling it as is and getting it off
their plate.
Speaker 1 (27:07):
I think so.
Speaker 7 (27:07):
And when inventory is low, they have the ability to
do that, to just wave inspections and not do a
whole lot of work because they know there is a
buyer for the home, even in the shape it's in.
And so again we'll see more inventory next year. I
don't think it's going to be just a deluge, but
it should be better than twenty twenty three, and sort
of in my business. Just the direction and the change
is more important than the levels.
Speaker 2 (27:28):
So the problem had been that people weren't selling. Why
are they more motivated to sell now? I mean, is
it beyond just the interest rates?
Speaker 7 (27:36):
It's time. So yeah, rates were low until about April
May of twenty twenty two, and then rates shoot up.
If you're a seller, you think, I don't want to
get in there, I'll just wait until rates come down
or whatever, and then time passes and eventually you just
have to sell in a lot of cases, and sort
of the interesting thing is one of the places where
inventory is rising the most right now is Florida as
(27:58):
well as Arizona, and I want or if it's because
there are more retirees there, and so you do have
more people just you know, dying or having to move
into assisted living, and just you have people who sort
of physically can't afford to wait and they're putting their
homes in the market or they're a status putting their
homes in the market.
Speaker 2 (28:14):
Now, you had said earlier in this interview that we've
seen this before. Is this now the new pattern? Is
this what we need to start anticipating in the next
few years? Is this sustainable?
Speaker 7 (28:29):
I think twenty twenty three was peak mortgage rate lock
in because you had sort of the most number of
people with three percent mortgage rates that you'll ever see,
and they also had had them for a very little
amount of time. They hadn't been in their homes that long,
so they could afford to wait a year and just
not sell their home and wait for things to settle out.
And now every year that passes there'll be fewer people
with those pandemic error mortgages and more people who, whether
(28:51):
it's for marriage or kids or death or divorce, whatever,
feel they need to sell. And so I think from
here inventories likely tick up, not rapid, but I think
you'll see more supply in twenty twenty four than you
did in twenty three, probably more in twenty five than
you will in twenty four, and so it should get
largely better from here.
Speaker 2 (29:08):
So more supply in the coming year, more supply possibly
the year after that. If I were looking to buy
a home, maybe hustle and strike while the iron is hot.
Speaker 7 (29:20):
There are a ton of buyers out there who want
to come in, want to find a home. And again
we saw in the new home market this year where
I think if you bought that home in January when
builders were still looking to sell and there were still
options out there, they're pretty happy versus people who waited
maybe thought mortgage ridge come down, thought prices would come down.
And I think you want to get out there before
spring and there's more of awareness that, oh, rates have
(29:43):
come down, people are looking to buy. Beat the crowd
would be my advice to people.
Speaker 2 (29:47):
When you are doing these types of analyzes, how long
does it take for the market to sort of catch
up with what it is you're saying.
Speaker 7 (29:53):
Well, the nice thing about housing is that there's pretty
like certainly around this time of the year, there's pretty
predictable seasonality. Even if you I wanted to buy a
home today, it's not like maybe your wilter's on vacation,
maybe the appraiser or some part of that chain that
you need to actually secure that home can't be reached,
and so you're kind of forced to wait until the
new year. So I think the next three to four
(30:14):
weeks it's going to be quiet just because you can't
get people and so, but I think you will see
signs of this by mid January.
Speaker 6 (30:21):
If I'm right, all.
Speaker 2 (30:22):
Right, Connor, We're going to wait and see if you
are right. Thank you so much for joining us.
Speaker 7 (30:27):
Thanks Amy.
Speaker 2 (30:28):
The US government's next set of dietary guidelines for twenty
twenty five may include warnings against ultra processed foods, but
nonprofits say, don't bet on that. There are just too
many committee members with conflicts of interest. Bloomberg opinion columnist
Bobby Ghost joins US. Now, Bobby first, set us straight.
What's the difference between a processed food and an ultra
(30:51):
processed food?
Speaker 8 (30:52):
Just cooking food makes it processed, right, But ultra process
food is food that is that essentially comes out of
a substantial degree comes out of a laboratory. I mean
they come out of factories, but they're designed in laboratory.
They're designed using the science of chemistry, and they're brought
(31:13):
together and you know the way the US federal government
defines that. It can be quite confusing. If you have
a is bacon a ultra processed food or a processed food?
If you have is bread processed or ultra process Take
a guess. Most breads are ultra processed foods. You and
(31:36):
I most people don't really think of bread like that,
but particularly bread that is designed to survive for several days,
which is not a natural thing. In bread, long life
breads a certainly ultra process long like milk is ultra processed.
All kinds of things are ultra processed.
Speaker 2 (31:51):
With so much evidence though that all these foods are
bad for you, certainly the Committee would be mentioning them
in these guidelines, you would.
Speaker 8 (31:58):
Think, except, of course, the Committee for decades has been
under scrutiny, to put it politely, for pressured by or
influenced by big food, the food industry through lobbyists. Many
members of the Committee have been shown to have conflicts
(32:18):
of interest, to have received money from big food to
conduct research, let's say, and that has made its guidelines
suspect in the eyes of a lot of people, and
a lot of people who've been on the committee before
say that they come under a lot of this pressure.
Part of the problem is that the USDA, the Department
(32:41):
of Agriculture. These guidelines come out from the USDA and
the Health and Human Services, But the USDA's primary function
is to try and promote the product of American agriculture,
you know, to promote the kinds of foods that are
produced by American farmers, and quite often American farmers are
(33:03):
producing foods for the food industry, which then takes this
stuff and processes it and ultra process it, if you like,
and puts it on our shelves and in our restaurants
and our fast food joints. And so there is a
direct conflict of interest for the USDA itself.
Speaker 2 (33:23):
So then what's the point of having these food guidelines
every few years?
Speaker 8 (33:27):
Therefore, nutrition is they are for policymakers. They're not for
you and me. They're not really for consumers. There's a
whole separate thing that is designed for consumers, and that
is called my plate. You'll remember the food pyramid. You'll
have seen it in your school, right. My plate replaced
the food pyramid. Instead of a pyramid, it's the shape
(33:47):
of a plate. It's like a pie chart that shows
you what proportions of different things you should eat. But
here's the thing that too, is produced by the government,
the Obama administration, particularly Michelle Obama, the first Lady, put
quite a lot of her personal energy into it. But
that's kind of fallen by the wayside. Even those who
have heard of it. A tiny, tiny fraction of people
(34:10):
say they've tried to live by the prescriptions of my play.
The larger point is that most people know that processed
foods aren't good. If the government is serious about getting
people to eat fewer processed foods, the solution is not
that difficult. You tax these foods, you subsidize the more
(34:32):
wholesome foods. But of course that would involve going against
very powerful lobbyists, and the political climate just simply does
not exist at the moment for that sort of action.
Speaker 2 (34:44):
Bobby goes. She is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering culture,
and that does it for this week's Bloomberg Opinion. We're
produced by Eric Mallow. Find all of these columns on
the Bloomberg terminal, and we're available as a podcast on Apple,
Spotify or your favorite podcast platform. Stay with us. Today's
stories and global business headlines are coming up. I'm Amy Morris,
and this is Bloomberg.
Host
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