July 23, 2025 • 34 mins
Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.
Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyJuly 23rd, 2025
Featuring:
1) Katy Kaminski, Chief Research Strategist at AlphaSimplex, talks about equities' positive trend, fixed income stalemates, and dollar weakness. Global stocks have roared back from their April slump on expectations countries will strike agreements with the US ahead of an Aug. 1 deadline, avoiding significant damage to company earnings and the global economy. Among the companies reporting Wednesday are Tesla and Alphabet.
2) Peter Conti-Brown, professor at Wharton Business School and author of "The Power and Independence of the Federal Reserve," discusses the history and importance of Fed independence. There’s a long history of US presidents putting pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, but the techniques have often been subtle or quiet in some way. Investors are taking seriously the prospect that President Trump will find a way or a reason to remove Fed Chair Jay Powell before the end of his term next year.
3) Mike Mayo, Head: US Large Cap Bank Research at Wells Fargo, breaks down recent bank earnings, new regulations, and outlook for America's big banks.
4) Ivan Feinseth, CIO at Tigress Capital Partners, gives us a preview of big tech earnings and talks about his bullish S&P call. Analysts will be studying the latest quarterly earnings from big tech for signs of resilience. A gauge of the so-called “Magnificent Seven” giants halted a nine-day advance Tuesday.
5) Lisa Mateo joins with the latest headlines in newspapers across the US, including WSJ's report on Europe turning focus to air conditioning and Business Insider's story on the hottest tote for moms this summer and why Wall Street's paying attention.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg
Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern
on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.
Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch
(00:25):
us live on YouTube.
Speaker 2 (00:27):
Paul Dumb Question of the day, who chooses the next meme? Stuck?
Speaker 3 (00:32):
I don't know. I think it's all in the online community,
the message boards. Whoever kind of has the biggest microphone
at the moment can kind of back up a name
and then it just seems to build upon itself.
Speaker 2 (00:42):
Then biggest microphone on the moment for us right now.
Katrin Kaminski joins his chief research strategist Alpha Simplex just
terrific technical and trend analysis of what's going on, and
honored you, Katie. I took log Magnificent seven back to
the pandemic. It's a little bit rolling over, but my word,
(01:03):
is that a straight line. When you see persistency like
that over three four, five years, How do you trade
mag seven?
Speaker 4 (01:14):
Well, this is a good question because we've definitely seen
a continued focus on those larger stocks. But as you've
just been discussing, we are seeing some pivot more recently.
So if you look at the Russell, for example, it's
been up quite a bit this month. So I think
there's some indications in the relative trend signals that there's
(01:34):
some sort of pivot going on right now, which is interesting.
Speaker 2 (01:37):
Sam Moroa out there writing up as he does for TK,
samrou the folks that spelled ro not row, and Sam
Moroa would tell you that there's a value to studying
at all time highs. What does all time highs mean
for Katie Kaminski, Well.
Speaker 4 (01:57):
It's interesting because all time highs often. One of the
challenges with many of the trend signals for this is
that when you see markets at all time highs, the
trend signals tend to continue to follow those, and it's
often those trends that prolong longer than we expect that
tend to be the most profitable. So I think as
people are starting to liquidate and adjust, if we continue
(02:20):
to see strength in this AI theme, that could be
a very positive trend because you're going to hold on
if you're a trend follower, if things are moving, even
if it's all time highs.
Speaker 3 (02:30):
Katie, one of the trends I've been following. Is the
weakness in the US dollar we just don't see it
very often. Is this a trend it is just or
is this just a short term trade saying, hey, maybe
you know the US dollar was overvalued. There's a crowded
long trade, and now people are just kind of pulling
out a little bit.
Speaker 4 (02:49):
This is a great question. I've gotten a lot of
questions about the dollar recently, and this is important because
it is one of the few themes that has been consistent.
So we've seen a lot of consistency in the short positioning,
and you continue to see a few fundamental themes that
support it. So when people are excited about equity markets,
that tends to make the dollar weaker. You also have
(03:12):
the fact that US rates are higher than other regions,
and if we start to cut rates that is also
negative for the dollar. Plus sort of disagreement about trade.
So we really seen very little ability to break resistance
levels for the dollars. So that means that anytime you
think that this trend is changing, that the dollars going
(03:32):
to come back, it hasn't happened.
Speaker 2 (03:34):
Well, well, Paul's talking to you. I'm doing a bunch
of technical studies in the Bloomberg Professional Service. I'm looking
at the point and figure chart on BBDXY and the
bottom line is a dollar weakness is in place from February.
Do you agree with that, Katie?
Speaker 4 (03:49):
One hundred percent. And what's interesting is we actually saw
the dollar strengthening around the US election, but then there's
been this sort of very colossal and strong dollar trade
and it was actually interesting because there seems to be
some indication that this is a shift out of the dollar.
There's certain data that suggests that maybe market share and
(04:11):
other currencies is causing.
Speaker 2 (04:13):
The dollar as well to be weaker.
Speaker 4 (04:15):
I think this is something that we're going to have
to continue to follow, and of course, if you're going
to take a vacation, you may not enjoy it so much.
Speaker 2 (04:22):
What's your best Bible trend right now? Besides the Detroit
Tigers are going to recover, So I'd.
Speaker 4 (04:29):
Say that the dollar has been the biggest theme for
us following recently. But I'm actually quite interested in the
recent rotation that we've seen in the equity markets. This
sort of pro domestic, pro growth, pro meanstock. That's interesting.
Speaker 2 (04:44):
So your long equities cut to the.
Speaker 4 (04:46):
Chase, Yes, long equities, but it has been a pivot.
So originally we had much longer signals outside the US,
and we're seeing a little bit of a shift in
sentiment over the last six weeks which has been more
pro US and that's interesting to watch because I definitely
didn't expect that six weeks ago.
Speaker 2 (05:04):
Katie, thanks so much, really really appreciate it. This morning,
Cathery Convincy Alpha Simple.
Speaker 1 (05:15):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch US Live
weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on
Applecarplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app, or
watch US live on YouTube.
Speaker 2 (05:28):
There are people that talk in then there are people
that do. Out of Harvard, Peter Kantie Brown has established
a young, very brief, but nevertheless authoritative career and the
power in the independence of our central bank, and critically
he's done it away from is the FED going to
raise rate? Is the Fed get a lower rate? And
(05:50):
much more the regulatory and capital markets operations of the Fed.
Professor Kanty Brown and Wharton, thank you so much for
joining us. I want to advance the dialogue Peter Conti
Brown and just suggest what is a chance two years
out post Trump five years out, that we have a
radically new FED that Alan Meltzer wouldn't recognize.
Speaker 5 (06:16):
What a phenomenal question. And you're focusing on exactly the
right question. In the circus of Trump versus Pow. We
forget that the Central Bank has been around for one
hundred and ten plus year, one hundred and twelve years,
and it is an institution for the medium term, And
so your question is the right question, What does it
look like in the medium term? Well, now I know
(06:38):
Alan Meltzer, I knew him before he passed away, and
he didn't recognize the FED following two thousand and eight,
and it has continued to change in pretty incredible ways
since then. I think the biggest changes that we see
in the FED and are likely to see five years
from now, are to one is inevitable and we should
(06:58):
welcome or at least be aware of and navigate that inevitability.
And the other is very lamentable. The inevitability is as
the world becomes more dynamically complex. Because the Fed's mandate
is simply macroeconomic stability, it means that its functions will
become dynamically complex. The reason we can't just ask ourselves.
(07:22):
Are we going to nudge twenty five BIPs this way
or that way about the federals, Because that's not the
way that the financial system works.
Speaker 2 (07:28):
That's not the way the world works.
Speaker 5 (07:30):
And so asking questions about crypto and stable coin, about
private credit and non bank finance, about tariffs, about geopolitics,
those are questions that central bankers have to think about.
Speaker 2 (07:41):
Well, this is addressed bike Secretary Best sent this morning.
They am Ma ree Hoarded. Professor, this is critical and
you're the guy. You're writing a new history, hopefully shorter
than Meltzer's. We're looking forward to that from Norton. But
Professor County Brown just simply is their mission creep? If
you look at you know, green and climate change, the
Fed's going to solve the world. Even taking it back
(08:02):
to currency discussions, is their mission creep at the Powell Fed?
Speaker 5 (08:09):
I think yes and no. I think the allegations of
mission creep are higher in number than the instances of
mission creep. But that is not to say that the
instances are zero. And so, because there are so many
factors of potential macroeconomic instability, it would be a dereliction
(08:31):
of the Fed's duty to be like those three monkeys,
see no evil, speak no evil, hear no evil. We
can only nudge interest rates twenty five BIPs one way
or another. And so when we see the FED asking
will there be inflationary consequences from tariff changes, that's not
mission creep, that's macroeconomic stability. They would fail at their
(08:53):
jobs if they didn't ask those kinds of questions. Similarly,
if in the bank regulatory and supervisory functions in Florida,
if the Federal Reserve Bank supervisors weren't asking banks hard
questions about how they were underwriting, say mortgage loans to
banks or to homes exposed to do global warming risk changes,
(09:15):
that would be a dereliction of duty. Should the FED, however,
say we are no longer going to support through regulatory
and supervisory functions, oil companies that seek financing, now, that
would be a mission creep. That's not their job to do.
They're not in the world in a world of environmental remediation.
And there were instances in the twenty tens and twenty
(09:36):
twenties where some central bankers really wanted to get into
that mix.
Speaker 2 (09:39):
Paul and I think so just because the time Paul
jump in here, this one with Professor Conti Brown.
Speaker 3 (09:45):
Of Wharton, Professor has the president? Has President Trump done damage,
meaningful damage, a lasting damage to the reputation of the FED?
Speaker 5 (09:54):
I think he has. And it's not the near term
question about whether the Fed's are innovations constitute fraud or recklessness.
I think that's a red hair ring. I think that's
mostly pretextual. Most Americans in their lives should think about
the Federal Reserve not at all. And that's not because
they're not sophisticated. It's because they're sophisticated in the things
(10:17):
that give their lives meaning. But the Federal what President
Trump has done has made people think about the Federal
Reserve constantly and made them think that the Federal Reserve
is a It is just a cabal of incompetence who
are mismanaging the economy and costing us all money. That's
not true. The FED is not beyond approach. Experts should
(10:39):
be and Fed watchers, like all of us, we should
be criticizing the FED all the time. But by constantly
attacking the FED and making it so the average American
is associating the central Bank with a negative sense, a
sense of instability. It just it pushes that freedom of
movement for the FED into a very dangerous spot. No
one has done that much.
Speaker 2 (11:00):
Twenty seconds, When do we get your book out on
the political history of the FED hugely into well, but you.
Speaker 5 (11:05):
And my publisher both want to know. I should finish
it this year and it should be out nine months
after that. You should about a decade.
Speaker 2 (11:12):
You're at Norton. Who do you think you are, Patrick O'Brien.
You're not writing about the Napoleonic War. Get that puppy out.
We thank Peter Conty Brown, really one of our best
on the FED history and the FED independence. Peter Conty
Brown holds court at Wharton.
Speaker 1 (11:28):
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Corplay and Android
Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen
live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station.
Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 2 (11:45):
Joining us now after the bank suare Michael Mayo as well? Mike,
let me dovetail in technology into banking. You and I
remember E. F. Hutton. They didn't keep up in technology. A. G. Edwards.
They didn't keep up in technology, and on and on.
Which bank is leading in using potential AI and in
(12:06):
using present technology.
Speaker 6 (12:10):
Well, there, that's an easy first question, Tom that JP
Morgan is the Nvidia of banking.
Speaker 7 (12:17):
They're leading with AI. They have it centralized. They say that, you.
Speaker 6 (12:22):
Know, most of their employees use it every day to
save a bit more productivity. They seem strategically and operationally
ahead of the pack. They do spend a lot of
money on technology. They spend eighteen billion dollars this year
on technology, and you know, the amount to AI continues
(12:46):
to increase, so they think it's real. They're embracing it
and it's you know, it starts more non customt facing activities.
Speaker 7 (12:55):
But they're certainly ahead of the game.
Speaker 2 (12:58):
Mike Mayo with this, folks, Howard moving from eight fifteen
to eight forty five Secretary of Commerce here in half
an hour. Paul Sweeney, Hey, Mike.
Speaker 3 (13:06):
When we came into this second Trump administration, one of
the sectors that was really called out as a potential
beneficiary was the financial services industry, primarily from a perspective
of maybe loosening of some of the restrictions on the
big banks. What have we what have we learned so far?
Speaker 6 (13:23):
Well, yesterday was the first ever Federal Reserve conference to
overhaul regulations, specifically capital rules, and I had the pleasure
to present on one of the panels. So I was
back in Washington, DC at the Federal Reserve Board for
the first time in thirty three years.
Speaker 8 (13:42):
Wow.
Speaker 6 (13:43):
And I would say this was remarkable. This was at
their headquarters building. In the front row was Chairman Palell
and Vice Chairman Bowman taking notes all day on by
different panels. By the way, Sam Altman was the keynote speaker.
And they're operating with eyes wide open to modernize bank regulation,
(14:08):
to you know, keep up with the times, update some
stale parts of it, and to create a more level
playing field with more transparency and a more holistic approach.
Speaker 7 (14:20):
I think that what.
Speaker 3 (14:22):
Are some of the big items, Mike, that you think
may be ripe for change.
Speaker 7 (14:28):
Well, I think the capital rules.
Speaker 6 (14:29):
I mean, this is really there's an alphabet, soup of acronyms.
Speaker 7 (14:35):
They overlap, they double counts, it's convoluted.
Speaker 6 (14:41):
So I think they can make it, you know, less complex,
less convoluted. You know, in my opening slide yesterday, I said, bank,
you regulators for a great job you did after the
global fancer crisis. But the rules are too confusing, too constraining,
and too costly, and so to the extent that you
can make them and you know, less complex, that's important.
(15:03):
To the extent that you can make it less constraining.
I mean banks have been marginalized. I mean, as a
percentage of total corporate bones, banks are gone from sixty
percent down to forty percent. Loan growth for the last
two years of justin for inflation's been negative, and you
see a lot of the loan go to the shadow
banking industry. So those are some of the changes.
Speaker 2 (15:23):
Mike Mayo with this yere with Willis Farger, we continue
with mister Mayo. We welcome all of you on your
commute a crastination at home in the office, our new
distribution YouTube. Thank you so much for subscribing to Bloomberg Podcast.
Speaker 3 (15:37):
Paul, So, Mike, give us a sense of timing here.
I know that you know, the Jamie Diamonds of the
world would like these rules kind of relaxed yesterday. Realistically,
what's the timing here?
Speaker 6 (15:49):
Well, this year is about updating the stress test you
saw that last month in terms of a little bit
more clarity, a little bit more less harsh, i'd say,
and the assumptions are already more harsh the actual experience
during the global cancer praises. We're not talking about going
back to two thousand and seven or those sorts of days.
Speaker 7 (16:13):
So that's this year. I think next year.
Speaker 6 (16:16):
There's international capital rules that's likely to get modified, and
then by the year after that, I think you should
start seeing efficiency.
Speaker 7 (16:24):
Benefits and this can be win win win.
Speaker 6 (16:26):
The regulators can win because you cost less money for
the oversight. The banks can win for more profitability. But
the customers can win because that profitabilities, A bit of
that's going to be passed on to them and they'll
have more options.
Speaker 2 (16:38):
Mike Mayil on the banking front, you look at your
major overweight view M and t up in Buffalo. Maybe
a bit of a caution there. Finally you get a
hockey stick move in City Group, a really really nice move,
even after the ten to one reverse split of decades ago.
Reaffirm your strung by on City Group.
Speaker 6 (17:01):
Well, tom As, you know I've been on your show
a few times since last year. It was slow going,
you know through parts of last year the tariffs sell off,
but City group remains my dominant number one.
Speaker 7 (17:14):
Pick by a mile.
Speaker 6 (17:16):
And I think, well, look what's underappreciated. They've transitioned from
fifty years of a global matrix missmatched structure to five
lines of business payments, banking, markets, consumer and wealth.
Speaker 7 (17:29):
And each one of those lines of business, you know,
has a P and L.
Speaker 6 (17:33):
They have returns, they have targeted returns, and they have
a CEO that's in charge of achieving those targeted returns. Now,
you say, Jane Frazer, the CEO does not get a
Nobel prize for doing that. But City is now getting
operated more like a normal company and they're only six
quarters into this new structure. Short term people are selling
(17:54):
the stock inappropriately due to the terraff City is a
tariff beneficiary.
Speaker 7 (17:59):
They moved.
Speaker 6 (18:00):
I've trained dollars of money every day around the world.
Now it might be moving to different countries. Also, a
lot of the customers around the world need trade financee.
They need more trade finante now or in exchange. So
this really fits right into cities right, you know, structural positioning.
While they make the structural.
Speaker 2 (18:18):
Change, perceive it on price to book using the the
b Q screen on the Bloomberg I got JP Morgan
two point four to four price to book. City Groups
really recovered from a Deutsche Bank disaster, if you will,
folks out to point nine. So City Groups at point nine.
JP Morgan is at two point four to four. Mike
(18:38):
in your head, how much of that delta can City
Group make up?
Speaker 6 (18:44):
Well, they can. Look which my kids do I love more?
And uh, you know, I notice the two stocks that
have been on our firm signature picklist. So Jake Morgan's
best in class, City's worst in class. So I do
think though that City can re rate on trading below
book value when it's not a crisis, when they're making.
Speaker 7 (19:06):
These sort of moves is a little unusual.
Speaker 6 (19:08):
So I think the stock has fifty percent upside over
the next two and a half years to one hundred
and fifty dollars. And that's there's no analytical gymnastics were
doing that.
Speaker 7 (19:19):
That's simply as.
Speaker 6 (19:20):
Citi's returns go up from seven percent last year, and
that's return on tangible equity to ten or eleven percent
next year and then higher after that. Mathematically you get
higher stock ranks. So it's there's a line of site
for the restructuring. And Tom you know what's unique for
any industry, any industry, when you say there's restructuring, Okay,
(19:42):
what's going.
Speaker 7 (19:43):
To happen to revenues? Cities revenues were up eight percent
year a year of the second quarter to here with
City you have a unique story of structuring with revenue growth,
and that's unique for any company.
Speaker 2 (19:55):
Paul, get one more in here with mister Manning. It's
got to go work out exactly. So are you doing
upper out of your lower body today? Mike?
Speaker 7 (20:03):
This is a lower body day.
Speaker 6 (20:04):
Thanks for asking, and I'm doing my deadlift and squats
and I'm still trying to push forward.
Speaker 2 (20:10):
Michael bar and I are as well. Paul get exactly.
Speaker 3 (20:13):
Hey, Michael, what did you take away from the Big
Banks earnings last week?
Speaker 7 (20:21):
This is an on inflection.
Speaker 6 (20:23):
This is an on ramp to double digit EPs growth
after having negative year of year EPs growth for much
the last year and a half. And we see this
double digit EPs growth for the next ten quarters through
the end of twenty twenty seven.
Speaker 7 (20:38):
So after that we'll see.
Speaker 2 (20:41):
Mike man thank you so much. With Wells Fargo there
in City Group and also on the technology over two
seventy Park Avenue.
Speaker 1 (20:56):
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto
with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us
live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg Terminal.
Speaker 2 (21:11):
Now our interview of the day without question technology earnings.
I even finds joins us with tigers. I've ben cut
to the chase. How different is Google from the other
aimag seven.
Speaker 9 (21:25):
Well, they first of all lead in search, so they
get the leg up on AI driven search, which they
are able to collect a lot of data from and
which optimizes their large language models. That is a key
driver of their business. Second, their main source of revenue
is advertising, and the more they can leverage AI to
(21:48):
show how they can create connections for advertisers to optimize
the advertisers return on their advertising invested dollar, that is
a powerful drive as well. So they continue to optimize
the data from searches to better connect advertisers with most
more likely or highly likely customers.
Speaker 3 (22:10):
I then I find myself clicking on a fewer links
because I got Gemini kind of answering my question, how
does it impact the business model or Google well?
Speaker 8 (22:20):
As far as Gemini.
Speaker 9 (22:21):
They are competing against things like chat, GPT and Perplexity,
and I think they stack up well because they have
a lot more data being fed from the advertising, you know,
the search data. But so if you're looking for specific
questions to answers, now you're starting to see the Gemini
(22:44):
generated answer to the question, but then you're still seeing
advertising links to be able to drive further. The most
important thing is consumers don't mind advertising. They just don't
like advertising that there are not interested in. But the
ability to find new products that are being optimized by
these search algorithms on Google and of course on Instagram
(23:05):
are powerful drivers.
Speaker 2 (23:07):
I'm in business playing off Mark German in his definitive
work for Bloomberg with Apple, and I went to Google
Gemini just like Paul, and I typed it in and
I got this beautiful essay on Apple and Google agreeing
to bring Google AI over to Apple. Is there any veracity?
(23:27):
Is there any veracity to.
Speaker 9 (23:28):
The well, Apple, certainly they want to enhance the power
of Siri, they want to enhance the power of their search,
and they have been developing Apple Intelligence to drive it.
But they have also been in talks to use Gemini
and to use open AIS Chad gppig so and really
I think what you want to see is sort of
(23:50):
like a meta search or a meta AI search where
you're getting data fed from different sources and then the
end you know, end AI and in the case of Apple,
to summarize the most concise answer.
Speaker 3 (24:04):
So I've in for the tech sector here for this
market to move hard? Does a tech sector need to lead?
This market has for god boy, a decade and a half,
it seems like no.
Speaker 9 (24:16):
Since the beginning of time, the tech sector, whether it
was fire, lever, wheel, those were technologies early on.
Speaker 8 (24:25):
The tech sector, we came out of the caves.
Speaker 9 (24:27):
We're not going back. We started to eat cook food.
We don't go back to eating raw food and so on.
And so once we enjoy the benefits of tech driven amenities,
then we don't go back to using old tools.
Speaker 8 (24:44):
So we once we.
Speaker 9 (24:45):
Started using the work processor, we didn't go back to
the typewriter. So the tech sector drives humanity and globally
the global economy forward. And that will to you since
the beginning of time, and hold the end of time.
Speaker 2 (25:01):
On your commute today across this nation. Good morning and
serious six Channel one twenty one, ninety nine one FM,
Hagar Radio, Washington, Good Morning ninety two nine FM in
Boston all the way out to well Fleet. Wow, nailed dead? Okay,
Mermaid had clammed some weal feet there like to die for.
I've been find set through with us here as we
(25:21):
go to Tech Earnings this afternoon and look for those
with Carrol Masser and team this after noon. Ivan, what's
your single best buy? Now? Is it Google? Or can
we go someplace else for the fine set single best buy?
Speaker 8 (25:34):
Still it's in video.
Speaker 9 (25:36):
In video is driving the whole AI process, and I
know it's up a lot, and it certainly had a
big pullback in April that went all the way down
to eighty six dollars, and now it is recovered, you know,
more than doubling. It hits one seventy two. So uh
and people say, oh, what's up a lot? It is
(25:58):
the engine behind the AI process. And all we hear
is the amount of money every every day. It's tens
hundreds of billions of dollars being invested in AI and
data centers. And in Vidia is the primary beneficiary of this.
So you need Nvidia processors, the GPUs, you need then
(26:21):
power you need land, you need water, you need connectivity,
So it is a ecosystem. In fact, President Trump is
scheduled to give a keynote speech added AI summit in
Washington talking about his emphasis on us AI. He would
be the global industry leader in AI. And we saw
(26:43):
last week the ninety billion dollar commitment to energy and
data center development in Pennsylvania.
Speaker 8 (26:50):
By the way, that's not government money.
Speaker 9 (26:52):
That's company you know, companies investing with Amazon, you know,
committing to twenty billion of that ninety billion.
Speaker 2 (27:00):
So it's even great about that. Ivan and Steve Schwartzman's
taking over the Pittsburgh Pirates. That's really what's going on here.
As Blackstone I believe goes goes out there. So in
Vidia's four point zero eight trillion dollars of marketcap with
thirty six thousand employees Santa Clair, California, Ivan, is it
(27:20):
like an extrapolation to five trillion dollars market cap or
is it accelerative right now?
Speaker 9 (27:28):
Well, it's going to continue to increase in value. Revenue
continues to grow at a huge rate. The demand, they
cannot keep up with demand. President Trump, who relaxed the
restrictions a couple of weeks ago on their ability to
sell back into China, which is a huge market. So
(27:50):
in Nvidia leads, and by the time any other company
other companies catch up to the Hopper, which is the
main one they sell, they have the black one, and
then after the blackwell, when people catch up to the Blackwell,
they're going.
Speaker 8 (28:04):
To have the Rubin.
Speaker 9 (28:05):
So they are two steps ahead of being two steps
ahead of everybody else.
Speaker 3 (28:11):
Ivan, you've got a SMP target I think around sixty
seven hundred, one of the higher ones on the street.
That suggests to me that you're pretty bullish on earnings here.
What are you taking away from the earning season here?
Speaker 8 (28:22):
So far, it's going to be tech.
Speaker 9 (28:25):
Tech is driving growth, Tech is growing, and all we're
going to see is ongoing huge commitments to capital investment
in technology. And it's not only the tech companies. To
quote I believe Tom Siebel, the founder of C three
AI set, every company is going to be an AI company.
Every company is going to use AI to improve their business,
(28:48):
whether it's pricing optimization, supply chain optimization, and target marketing.
So AI is going to be integrated, just like people
are using chat, GPT and J and I on their
phones and more on their computer.
Speaker 8 (29:06):
This is going to continue to grow.
Speaker 9 (29:07):
And I recently was at a two different Walmart distribution
centers where they have replaced people who are working on
the floor of the warehouse carrying and lifting things to
people who are overseeing automation, holding tablets and looking at
computer monitors to monitor the progress. Where in one of
(29:28):
their fulfillments, they have taken pickpack and ship fulfillment down
from four hours to thirty minutes. They in their frozen
warehouse which is fifteen degrees below zero. I could only
stay in there for a few minutes with the hat
and glove and coat that they gave me. People used
to work eight hour ships in the frozen warehouse, coming
(29:49):
in and out, but now these people are outside minding it.
Speaker 2 (29:52):
You got to try a studio in New York City.
It's like five degrees colder in that. Where else I've
an around of time. We got to live there. Thank
you for the particularly. They're on Google this afternoon and
Ivan finds it of Tigris on Nvidio.
Speaker 1 (30:07):
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Listen live each weekday
starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Corplay and Android
Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen
live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station.
Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 2 (30:23):
We need a distraction, Lisa Manteo the newspapers. Lisa, what
do you have?
Speaker 10 (30:28):
That is my job and distraction? Okay. There is a
hot new bag trend from moms this summer. If you're
listening up. It's not the bog bag, okay, that was
like the hot old one. It was the one that
kind of looked like cracks with the holes in it.
Now that's old news. It is Yetti's Camino thirty five
carryall tote.
Speaker 3 (30:46):
Okay.
Speaker 10 (30:47):
It is all over social media. It runs about one
hundred and fifty to one hundred and seventy dollars and
it can carry up to three hundred pounds of weight
because moms carry a lot.
Speaker 3 (30:58):
I'm telling you.
Speaker 10 (30:59):
Get this Stanley cup in there. They bring it on
their boats, the beach athletic fields. And you can customize
it Tom with those la Boo boo plushies.
Speaker 7 (31:07):
Wow makes it?
Speaker 2 (31:10):
Yes, it is, and you can hook the la boo
boo around it.
Speaker 10 (31:14):
You can hook the LaVoo boo on it. But Jeffrey's analyst.
They actually point to it and they're saying it's boosting
confidence in Yetti's stock. So that's giving it a little
bit of a boost. But this is the hot new thing.
You're going to see it all. You're going to see
it on the Jersey shore there.
Speaker 2 (31:28):
I'm telling you to be on thirteen people.
Speaker 8 (31:32):
Okay YETI Good.
Speaker 2 (31:33):
Morning Matthew and von Thank you so much for Michael
McMillan's CFO, Yetti Holdings.
Speaker 3 (31:41):
The Yetti water bottles, the technology there is life change.
Speaker 7 (31:44):
Oh yeah, the coolers are I'm sitting out.
Speaker 3 (31:47):
On the beach. I can't even hold my Yetty bottle.
It's so hot, but then the water's ice cold.
Speaker 8 (31:52):
It's unbelievable.
Speaker 3 (31:53):
It's crazy technology. But beach the thermost I grew up with.
Speaker 2 (31:57):
So this is a tote bag like a Trader Joe's.
Speaker 7 (32:00):
It's really durable, Like I think.
Speaker 2 (32:02):
Like, why is it superior to an LL bean bag.
Speaker 10 (32:05):
Because you can carry more stuff in it, it's waterproof,
it's durable. You know, you can drag it around, get
it knocked around, and it still survives.
Speaker 2 (32:13):
So if you have the LL being thermos of the
beverage of your choice and it leaks out into the
ll bean bag. You learn it's not water exactly.
Speaker 8 (32:23):
Next.
Speaker 10 (32:24):
Oh, by the way, someone on the chat was asking
if I can talk about a man toat I will
work on that.
Speaker 3 (32:29):
Okay, here we go.
Speaker 2 (32:30):
Moving on.
Speaker 10 (32:31):
This is people right when they travel to Europe in
the summer. One thing people always complain about is lack
of air conditioning. So the thing is heat waves are
happening more often, they're more intense. So the hot new
topic in European politics is this it's air conditioning. So
the Wall Street Journal says politicians on the right they've
been sounding off. You have Francis Marine La Penn proposed
(32:52):
this major campaign to put it in schools because a
lot of schools in France had to close down because
it was too hot. In the UK, Conservative urged London's
Labor Party to get rid of rules that restrict how
air condition can be used in new housing. But you
have the French authorities who are kind of pushing back
on this. They say air conditioning would eat up the
streets because of the exhaust. Then you have environmentalists saying
(33:14):
it's going to generate more greenhouse gas emissions too.
Speaker 3 (33:16):
On top of it.
Speaker 10 (33:17):
They say, what you need to do is plant more
greenery and that will make it.
Speaker 2 (33:20):
I actually did like a gemini you search on this
the other day and I guess air conditioning implementation is
speeding up. Yeah, I mean just because of the heat.
Speaker 3 (33:31):
Yeah, He's all I know is that the tube in
London is not air conditioning in some days.
Speaker 8 (33:36):
Boy wow.
Speaker 10 (33:37):
Yeah, especially seeze in a I do okay. Shopping malls,
we talked about it, right, A dying breed a lot
of places, but one in Queen's is actually thriving. This
is Tangrum. It's two hundred and seventy five thousand square
feet indoor shopping center and Flushing opened about three years ago.
But the thing that makes it different it has has
you know, boutiques and restaurants. It has you know, karaoke
(34:00):
places up till six in the morning.
Speaker 3 (34:01):
It's open arcades.
Speaker 10 (34:02):
It has the PopMart store which sells those La Boo boos.
It has a cat cafe. So it has all these
different things. Because they're saying it's not just shopping, it's
a destination for food and fun. And that's what mals
need to start doing, is going to that rather than
just the shopping.
Speaker 2 (34:18):
Alone, Lisa, take you. Thank you so much the newspapers
this morning.
Speaker 1 (34:23):
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, available on apples, Spotify,
and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday,
seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the
iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You
can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and
(34:43):
always on the Bloomberg terminal
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg
Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern
on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.
Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch
(00:25):
us live on YouTube.
Speaker 2 (00:27):
Paul Dumb Question of the day, who chooses the next meme? Stuck?
Speaker 3 (00:32):
I don't know. I think it's all in the online community,
the message boards. Whoever kind of has the biggest microphone
at the moment can kind of back up a name
and then it just seems to build upon itself.
Speaker 2 (00:42):
Then biggest microphone on the moment for us right now.
Katrin Kaminski joins his chief research strategist Alpha Simplex just
terrific technical and trend analysis of what's going on, and
honored you, Katie. I took log Magnificent seven back to
the pandemic. It's a little bit rolling over, but my word,
(01:03):
is that a straight line. When you see persistency like
that over three four, five years, How do you trade
mag seven?
Speaker 4 (01:14):
Well, this is a good question because we've definitely seen
a continued focus on those larger stocks. But as you've
just been discussing, we are seeing some pivot more recently.
So if you look at the Russell, for example, it's
been up quite a bit this month. So I think
there's some indications in the relative trend signals that there's
(01:34):
some sort of pivot going on right now, which is interesting.
Speaker 2 (01:37):
Sam Moroa out there writing up as he does for TK,
samrou the folks that spelled ro not row, and Sam
Moroa would tell you that there's a value to studying
at all time highs. What does all time highs mean
for Katie Kaminski, Well.
Speaker 4 (01:57):
It's interesting because all time highs often. One of the
challenges with many of the trend signals for this is
that when you see markets at all time highs, the
trend signals tend to continue to follow those, and it's
often those trends that prolong longer than we expect that
tend to be the most profitable. So I think as
people are starting to liquidate and adjust, if we continue
(02:20):
to see strength in this AI theme, that could be
a very positive trend because you're going to hold on
if you're a trend follower, if things are moving, even
if it's all time highs.
Speaker 3 (02:30):
Katie, one of the trends I've been following. Is the
weakness in the US dollar we just don't see it
very often. Is this a trend it is just or
is this just a short term trade saying, hey, maybe
you know the US dollar was overvalued. There's a crowded
long trade, and now people are just kind of pulling
out a little bit.
Speaker 4 (02:49):
This is a great question. I've gotten a lot of
questions about the dollar recently, and this is important because
it is one of the few themes that has been consistent.
So we've seen a lot of consistency in the short positioning,
and you continue to see a few fundamental themes that
support it. So when people are excited about equity markets,
that tends to make the dollar weaker. You also have
(03:12):
the fact that US rates are higher than other regions,
and if we start to cut rates that is also
negative for the dollar. Plus sort of disagreement about trade.
So we really seen very little ability to break resistance
levels for the dollars. So that means that anytime you
think that this trend is changing, that the dollars going
(03:32):
to come back, it hasn't happened.
Speaker 2 (03:34):
Well, well, Paul's talking to you. I'm doing a bunch
of technical studies in the Bloomberg Professional Service. I'm looking
at the point and figure chart on BBDXY and the
bottom line is a dollar weakness is in place from February.
Do you agree with that, Katie?
Speaker 4 (03:49):
One hundred percent. And what's interesting is we actually saw
the dollar strengthening around the US election, but then there's
been this sort of very colossal and strong dollar trade
and it was actually interesting because there seems to be
some indication that this is a shift out of the dollar.
There's certain data that suggests that maybe market share and
(04:11):
other currencies is causing.
Speaker 2 (04:13):
The dollar as well to be weaker.
Speaker 4 (04:15):
I think this is something that we're going to have
to continue to follow, and of course, if you're going
to take a vacation, you may not enjoy it so much.
Speaker 2 (04:22):
What's your best Bible trend right now? Besides the Detroit
Tigers are going to recover, So I'd.
Speaker 4 (04:29):
Say that the dollar has been the biggest theme for
us following recently. But I'm actually quite interested in the
recent rotation that we've seen in the equity markets. This
sort of pro domestic, pro growth, pro meanstock. That's interesting.
Speaker 2 (04:44):
So your long equities cut to the.
Speaker 4 (04:46):
Chase, Yes, long equities, but it has been a pivot.
So originally we had much longer signals outside the US,
and we're seeing a little bit of a shift in
sentiment over the last six weeks which has been more
pro US and that's interesting to watch because I definitely
didn't expect that six weeks ago.
Speaker 2 (05:04):
Katie, thanks so much, really really appreciate it. This morning,
Cathery Convincy Alpha Simple.
Speaker 1 (05:15):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch US Live
weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on
Applecarplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app, or
watch US live on YouTube.
Speaker 2 (05:28):
There are people that talk in then there are people
that do. Out of Harvard, Peter Kantie Brown has established
a young, very brief, but nevertheless authoritative career and the
power in the independence of our central bank, and critically
he's done it away from is the FED going to
raise rate? Is the Fed get a lower rate? And
(05:50):
much more the regulatory and capital markets operations of the Fed.
Professor Kanty Brown and Wharton, thank you so much for
joining us. I want to advance the dialogue Peter Conti
Brown and just suggest what is a chance two years
out post Trump five years out, that we have a
radically new FED that Alan Meltzer wouldn't recognize.
Speaker 5 (06:16):
What a phenomenal question. And you're focusing on exactly the
right question. In the circus of Trump versus Pow. We
forget that the Central Bank has been around for one
hundred and ten plus year, one hundred and twelve years,
and it is an institution for the medium term, And
so your question is the right question, What does it
look like in the medium term? Well, now I know
(06:38):
Alan Meltzer, I knew him before he passed away, and
he didn't recognize the FED following two thousand and eight,
and it has continued to change in pretty incredible ways
since then. I think the biggest changes that we see
in the FED and are likely to see five years
from now, are to one is inevitable and we should
(06:58):
welcome or at least be aware of and navigate that inevitability.
And the other is very lamentable. The inevitability is as
the world becomes more dynamically complex. Because the Fed's mandate
is simply macroeconomic stability, it means that its functions will
become dynamically complex. The reason we can't just ask ourselves.
(07:22):
Are we going to nudge twenty five BIPs this way
or that way about the federals, Because that's not the
way that the financial system works.
Speaker 2 (07:28):
That's not the way the world works.
Speaker 5 (07:30):
And so asking questions about crypto and stable coin, about
private credit and non bank finance, about tariffs, about geopolitics,
those are questions that central bankers have to think about.
Speaker 2 (07:41):
Well, this is addressed bike Secretary Best sent this morning.
They am Ma ree Hoarded. Professor, this is critical and
you're the guy. You're writing a new history, hopefully shorter
than Meltzer's. We're looking forward to that from Norton. But
Professor County Brown just simply is their mission creep? If
you look at you know, green and climate change, the
Fed's going to solve the world. Even taking it back
(08:02):
to currency discussions, is their mission creep at the Powell Fed?
Speaker 5 (08:09):
I think yes and no. I think the allegations of
mission creep are higher in number than the instances of
mission creep. But that is not to say that the
instances are zero. And so, because there are so many
factors of potential macroeconomic instability, it would be a dereliction
(08:31):
of the Fed's duty to be like those three monkeys,
see no evil, speak no evil, hear no evil. We
can only nudge interest rates twenty five BIPs one way
or another. And so when we see the FED asking
will there be inflationary consequences from tariff changes, that's not
mission creep, that's macroeconomic stability. They would fail at their
(08:53):
jobs if they didn't ask those kinds of questions. Similarly,
if in the bank regulatory and supervisory functions in Florida,
if the Federal Reserve Bank supervisors weren't asking banks hard
questions about how they were underwriting, say mortgage loans to
banks or to homes exposed to do global warming risk changes,
(09:15):
that would be a dereliction of duty. Should the FED, however,
say we are no longer going to support through regulatory
and supervisory functions, oil companies that seek financing, now, that
would be a mission creep. That's not their job to do.
They're not in the world in a world of environmental remediation.
And there were instances in the twenty tens and twenty
(09:36):
twenties where some central bankers really wanted to get into
that mix.
Speaker 2 (09:39):
Paul and I think so just because the time Paul
jump in here, this one with Professor Conti Brown.
Speaker 3 (09:45):
Of Wharton, Professor has the president? Has President Trump done damage,
meaningful damage, a lasting damage to the reputation of the FED?
Speaker 5 (09:54):
I think he has. And it's not the near term
question about whether the Fed's are innovations constitute fraud or recklessness.
I think that's a red hair ring. I think that's
mostly pretextual. Most Americans in their lives should think about
the Federal Reserve not at all. And that's not because
they're not sophisticated. It's because they're sophisticated in the things
(10:17):
that give their lives meaning. But the Federal what President
Trump has done has made people think about the Federal
Reserve constantly and made them think that the Federal Reserve
is a It is just a cabal of incompetence who
are mismanaging the economy and costing us all money. That's
not true. The FED is not beyond approach. Experts should
(10:39):
be and Fed watchers, like all of us, we should
be criticizing the FED all the time. But by constantly
attacking the FED and making it so the average American
is associating the central Bank with a negative sense, a
sense of instability. It just it pushes that freedom of
movement for the FED into a very dangerous spot. No
one has done that much.
Speaker 2 (11:00):
Twenty seconds, When do we get your book out on
the political history of the FED hugely into well, but you.
Speaker 5 (11:05):
And my publisher both want to know. I should finish
it this year and it should be out nine months
after that. You should about a decade.
Speaker 2 (11:12):
You're at Norton. Who do you think you are, Patrick O'Brien.
You're not writing about the Napoleonic War. Get that puppy out.
We thank Peter Conty Brown, really one of our best
on the FED history and the FED independence. Peter Conty
Brown holds court at Wharton.
Speaker 1 (11:28):
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Corplay and Android
Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen
live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station.
Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 2 (11:45):
Joining us now after the bank suare Michael Mayo as well? Mike,
let me dovetail in technology into banking. You and I
remember E. F. Hutton. They didn't keep up in technology. A. G. Edwards.
They didn't keep up in technology, and on and on.
Which bank is leading in using potential AI and in
(12:06):
using present technology.
Speaker 6 (12:10):
Well, there, that's an easy first question, Tom that JP
Morgan is the Nvidia of banking.
Speaker 7 (12:17):
They're leading with AI. They have it centralized. They say that, you.
Speaker 6 (12:22):
Know, most of their employees use it every day to
save a bit more productivity. They seem strategically and operationally
ahead of the pack. They do spend a lot of
money on technology. They spend eighteen billion dollars this year
on technology, and you know, the amount to AI continues
(12:46):
to increase, so they think it's real. They're embracing it
and it's you know, it starts more non customt facing activities.
Speaker 7 (12:55):
But they're certainly ahead of the game.
Speaker 2 (12:58):
Mike Mayo with this, folks, Howard moving from eight fifteen
to eight forty five Secretary of Commerce here in half
an hour. Paul Sweeney, Hey, Mike.
Speaker 3 (13:06):
When we came into this second Trump administration, one of
the sectors that was really called out as a potential
beneficiary was the financial services industry, primarily from a perspective
of maybe loosening of some of the restrictions on the
big banks. What have we what have we learned so far?
Speaker 6 (13:23):
Well, yesterday was the first ever Federal Reserve conference to
overhaul regulations, specifically capital rules, and I had the pleasure
to present on one of the panels. So I was
back in Washington, DC at the Federal Reserve Board for
the first time in thirty three years.
Speaker 8 (13:42):
Wow.
Speaker 6 (13:43):
And I would say this was remarkable. This was at
their headquarters building. In the front row was Chairman Palell
and Vice Chairman Bowman taking notes all day on by
different panels. By the way, Sam Altman was the keynote speaker.
And they're operating with eyes wide open to modernize bank regulation,
(14:08):
to you know, keep up with the times, update some
stale parts of it, and to create a more level
playing field with more transparency and a more holistic approach.
Speaker 7 (14:20):
I think that what.
Speaker 3 (14:22):
Are some of the big items, Mike, that you think
may be ripe for change.
Speaker 7 (14:28):
Well, I think the capital rules.
Speaker 6 (14:29):
I mean, this is really there's an alphabet, soup of acronyms.
Speaker 7 (14:35):
They overlap, they double counts, it's convoluted.
Speaker 6 (14:41):
So I think they can make it, you know, less complex,
less convoluted. You know, in my opening slide yesterday, I said, bank,
you regulators for a great job you did after the
global fancer crisis. But the rules are too confusing, too constraining,
and too costly, and so to the extent that you
can make them and you know, less complex, that's important.
(15:03):
To the extent that you can make it less constraining.
I mean banks have been marginalized. I mean, as a
percentage of total corporate bones, banks are gone from sixty
percent down to forty percent. Loan growth for the last
two years of justin for inflation's been negative, and you
see a lot of the loan go to the shadow
banking industry. So those are some of the changes.
Speaker 2 (15:23):
Mike Mayo with this yere with Willis Farger, we continue
with mister Mayo. We welcome all of you on your
commute a crastination at home in the office, our new
distribution YouTube. Thank you so much for subscribing to Bloomberg Podcast.
Speaker 3 (15:37):
Paul, So, Mike, give us a sense of timing here.
I know that you know, the Jamie Diamonds of the
world would like these rules kind of relaxed yesterday. Realistically,
what's the timing here?
Speaker 6 (15:49):
Well, this year is about updating the stress test you
saw that last month in terms of a little bit
more clarity, a little bit more less harsh, i'd say,
and the assumptions are already more harsh the actual experience
during the global cancer praises. We're not talking about going
back to two thousand and seven or those sorts of days.
Speaker 7 (16:13):
So that's this year. I think next year.
Speaker 6 (16:16):
There's international capital rules that's likely to get modified, and
then by the year after that, I think you should
start seeing efficiency.
Speaker 7 (16:24):
Benefits and this can be win win win.
Speaker 6 (16:26):
The regulators can win because you cost less money for
the oversight. The banks can win for more profitability. But
the customers can win because that profitabilities, A bit of
that's going to be passed on to them and they'll
have more options.
Speaker 2 (16:38):
Mike Mayil on the banking front, you look at your
major overweight view M and t up in Buffalo. Maybe
a bit of a caution there. Finally you get a
hockey stick move in City Group, a really really nice move,
even after the ten to one reverse split of decades ago.
Reaffirm your strung by on City Group.
Speaker 6 (17:01):
Well, tom As, you know I've been on your show
a few times since last year. It was slow going,
you know through parts of last year the tariffs sell off,
but City group remains my dominant number one.
Speaker 7 (17:14):
Pick by a mile.
Speaker 6 (17:16):
And I think, well, look what's underappreciated. They've transitioned from
fifty years of a global matrix missmatched structure to five
lines of business payments, banking, markets, consumer and wealth.
Speaker 7 (17:29):
And each one of those lines of business, you know,
has a P and L.
Speaker 6 (17:33):
They have returns, they have targeted returns, and they have
a CEO that's in charge of achieving those targeted returns. Now,
you say, Jane Frazer, the CEO does not get a
Nobel prize for doing that. But City is now getting
operated more like a normal company and they're only six
quarters into this new structure. Short term people are selling
(17:54):
the stock inappropriately due to the terraff City is a
tariff beneficiary.
Speaker 7 (17:59):
They moved.
Speaker 6 (18:00):
I've trained dollars of money every day around the world.
Now it might be moving to different countries. Also, a
lot of the customers around the world need trade financee.
They need more trade finante now or in exchange. So
this really fits right into cities right, you know, structural positioning.
While they make the structural.
Speaker 2 (18:18):
Change, perceive it on price to book using the the
b Q screen on the Bloomberg I got JP Morgan
two point four to four price to book. City Groups
really recovered from a Deutsche Bank disaster, if you will,
folks out to point nine. So City Groups at point nine.
JP Morgan is at two point four to four. Mike
(18:38):
in your head, how much of that delta can City
Group make up?
Speaker 6 (18:44):
Well, they can. Look which my kids do I love more?
And uh, you know, I notice the two stocks that
have been on our firm signature picklist. So Jake Morgan's
best in class, City's worst in class. So I do
think though that City can re rate on trading below
book value when it's not a crisis, when they're making.
Speaker 7 (19:06):
These sort of moves is a little unusual.
Speaker 6 (19:08):
So I think the stock has fifty percent upside over
the next two and a half years to one hundred
and fifty dollars. And that's there's no analytical gymnastics were
doing that.
Speaker 7 (19:19):
That's simply as.
Speaker 6 (19:20):
Citi's returns go up from seven percent last year, and
that's return on tangible equity to ten or eleven percent
next year and then higher after that. Mathematically you get
higher stock ranks. So it's there's a line of site
for the restructuring. And Tom you know what's unique for
any industry, any industry, when you say there's restructuring, Okay,
(19:42):
what's going.
Speaker 7 (19:43):
To happen to revenues? Cities revenues were up eight percent
year a year of the second quarter to here with
City you have a unique story of structuring with revenue growth,
and that's unique for any company.
Speaker 2 (19:55):
Paul, get one more in here with mister Manning. It's
got to go work out exactly. So are you doing
upper out of your lower body today? Mike?
Speaker 7 (20:03):
This is a lower body day.
Speaker 6 (20:04):
Thanks for asking, and I'm doing my deadlift and squats
and I'm still trying to push forward.
Speaker 2 (20:10):
Michael bar and I are as well. Paul get exactly.
Speaker 3 (20:13):
Hey, Michael, what did you take away from the Big
Banks earnings last week?
Speaker 7 (20:21):
This is an on inflection.
Speaker 6 (20:23):
This is an on ramp to double digit EPs growth
after having negative year of year EPs growth for much
the last year and a half. And we see this
double digit EPs growth for the next ten quarters through
the end of twenty twenty seven.
Speaker 7 (20:38):
So after that we'll see.
Speaker 2 (20:41):
Mike man thank you so much. With Wells Fargo there
in City Group and also on the technology over two
seventy Park Avenue.
Speaker 1 (20:56):
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto
with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us
live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg Terminal.
Speaker 2 (21:11):
Now our interview of the day without question technology earnings.
I even finds joins us with tigers. I've ben cut
to the chase. How different is Google from the other
aimag seven.
Speaker 9 (21:25):
Well, they first of all lead in search, so they
get the leg up on AI driven search, which they
are able to collect a lot of data from and
which optimizes their large language models. That is a key
driver of their business. Second, their main source of revenue
is advertising, and the more they can leverage AI to
(21:48):
show how they can create connections for advertisers to optimize
the advertisers return on their advertising invested dollar, that is
a powerful drive as well. So they continue to optimize
the data from searches to better connect advertisers with most
more likely or highly likely customers.
Speaker 3 (22:10):
I then I find myself clicking on a fewer links
because I got Gemini kind of answering my question, how
does it impact the business model or Google well?
Speaker 8 (22:20):
As far as Gemini.
Speaker 9 (22:21):
They are competing against things like chat, GPT and Perplexity,
and I think they stack up well because they have
a lot more data being fed from the advertising, you know,
the search data. But so if you're looking for specific
questions to answers, now you're starting to see the Gemini
(22:44):
generated answer to the question, but then you're still seeing
advertising links to be able to drive further. The most
important thing is consumers don't mind advertising. They just don't
like advertising that there are not interested in. But the
ability to find new products that are being optimized by
these search algorithms on Google and of course on Instagram
(23:05):
are powerful drivers.
Speaker 2 (23:07):
I'm in business playing off Mark German in his definitive
work for Bloomberg with Apple, and I went to Google
Gemini just like Paul, and I typed it in and
I got this beautiful essay on Apple and Google agreeing
to bring Google AI over to Apple. Is there any veracity?
(23:27):
Is there any veracity to.
Speaker 9 (23:28):
The well, Apple, certainly they want to enhance the power
of Siri, they want to enhance the power of their search,
and they have been developing Apple Intelligence to drive it.
But they have also been in talks to use Gemini
and to use open AIS Chad gppig so and really
I think what you want to see is sort of
(23:50):
like a meta search or a meta AI search where
you're getting data fed from different sources and then the
end you know, end AI and in the case of Apple,
to summarize the most concise answer.
Speaker 3 (24:04):
So I've in for the tech sector here for this
market to move hard? Does a tech sector need to lead?
This market has for god boy, a decade and a half,
it seems like no.
Speaker 9 (24:16):
Since the beginning of time, the tech sector, whether it
was fire, lever, wheel, those were technologies early on.
Speaker 8 (24:25):
The tech sector, we came out of the caves.
Speaker 9 (24:27):
We're not going back. We started to eat cook food.
We don't go back to eating raw food and so on.
And so once we enjoy the benefits of tech driven amenities,
then we don't go back to using old tools.
Speaker 8 (24:44):
So we once we.
Speaker 9 (24:45):
Started using the work processor, we didn't go back to
the typewriter. So the tech sector drives humanity and globally
the global economy forward. And that will to you since
the beginning of time, and hold the end of time.
Speaker 2 (25:01):
On your commute today across this nation. Good morning and
serious six Channel one twenty one, ninety nine one FM,
Hagar Radio, Washington, Good Morning ninety two nine FM in
Boston all the way out to well Fleet. Wow, nailed dead? Okay,
Mermaid had clammed some weal feet there like to die for.
I've been find set through with us here as we
(25:21):
go to Tech Earnings this afternoon and look for those
with Carrol Masser and team this after noon. Ivan, what's
your single best buy? Now? Is it Google? Or can
we go someplace else for the fine set single best buy?
Speaker 8 (25:34):
Still it's in video.
Speaker 9 (25:36):
In video is driving the whole AI process, and I
know it's up a lot, and it certainly had a
big pullback in April that went all the way down
to eighty six dollars, and now it is recovered, you know,
more than doubling. It hits one seventy two. So uh
and people say, oh, what's up a lot? It is
(25:58):
the engine behind the AI process. And all we hear
is the amount of money every every day. It's tens
hundreds of billions of dollars being invested in AI and
data centers. And in Vidia is the primary beneficiary of this.
So you need Nvidia processors, the GPUs, you need then
(26:21):
power you need land, you need water, you need connectivity,
So it is a ecosystem. In fact, President Trump is
scheduled to give a keynote speech added AI summit in
Washington talking about his emphasis on us AI. He would
be the global industry leader in AI. And we saw
(26:43):
last week the ninety billion dollar commitment to energy and
data center development in Pennsylvania.
Speaker 8 (26:50):
By the way, that's not government money.
Speaker 9 (26:52):
That's company you know, companies investing with Amazon, you know,
committing to twenty billion of that ninety billion.
Speaker 2 (27:00):
So it's even great about that. Ivan and Steve Schwartzman's
taking over the Pittsburgh Pirates. That's really what's going on here.
As Blackstone I believe goes goes out there. So in
Vidia's four point zero eight trillion dollars of marketcap with
thirty six thousand employees Santa Clair, California, Ivan, is it
(27:20):
like an extrapolation to five trillion dollars market cap or
is it accelerative right now?
Speaker 9 (27:28):
Well, it's going to continue to increase in value. Revenue
continues to grow at a huge rate. The demand, they
cannot keep up with demand. President Trump, who relaxed the
restrictions a couple of weeks ago on their ability to
sell back into China, which is a huge market. So
(27:50):
in Nvidia leads, and by the time any other company
other companies catch up to the Hopper, which is the
main one they sell, they have the black one, and
then after the blackwell, when people catch up to the Blackwell,
they're going.
Speaker 8 (28:04):
To have the Rubin.
Speaker 9 (28:05):
So they are two steps ahead of being two steps
ahead of everybody else.
Speaker 3 (28:11):
Ivan, you've got a SMP target I think around sixty
seven hundred, one of the higher ones on the street.
That suggests to me that you're pretty bullish on earnings here.
What are you taking away from the earning season here?
Speaker 8 (28:22):
So far, it's going to be tech.
Speaker 9 (28:25):
Tech is driving growth, Tech is growing, and all we're
going to see is ongoing huge commitments to capital investment
in technology. And it's not only the tech companies. To
quote I believe Tom Siebel, the founder of C three
AI set, every company is going to be an AI company.
Every company is going to use AI to improve their business,
(28:48):
whether it's pricing optimization, supply chain optimization, and target marketing.
So AI is going to be integrated, just like people
are using chat, GPT and J and I on their
phones and more on their computer.
Speaker 8 (29:06):
This is going to continue to grow.
Speaker 9 (29:07):
And I recently was at a two different Walmart distribution
centers where they have replaced people who are working on
the floor of the warehouse carrying and lifting things to
people who are overseeing automation, holding tablets and looking at
computer monitors to monitor the progress. Where in one of
(29:28):
their fulfillments, they have taken pickpack and ship fulfillment down
from four hours to thirty minutes. They in their frozen
warehouse which is fifteen degrees below zero. I could only
stay in there for a few minutes with the hat
and glove and coat that they gave me. People used
to work eight hour ships in the frozen warehouse, coming
(29:49):
in and out, but now these people are outside minding it.
Speaker 2 (29:52):
You got to try a studio in New York City.
It's like five degrees colder in that. Where else I've
an around of time. We got to live there. Thank
you for the particularly. They're on Google this afternoon and
Ivan finds it of Tigris on Nvidio.
Speaker 1 (30:07):
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Listen live each weekday
starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Corplay and Android
Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen
live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station.
Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 2 (30:23):
We need a distraction, Lisa Manteo the newspapers. Lisa, what
do you have?
Speaker 10 (30:28):
That is my job and distraction? Okay. There is a
hot new bag trend from moms this summer. If you're
listening up. It's not the bog bag, okay, that was
like the hot old one. It was the one that
kind of looked like cracks with the holes in it.
Now that's old news. It is Yetti's Camino thirty five
carryall tote.
Speaker 3 (30:46):
Okay.
Speaker 10 (30:47):
It is all over social media. It runs about one
hundred and fifty to one hundred and seventy dollars and
it can carry up to three hundred pounds of weight
because moms carry a lot.
Speaker 3 (30:58):
I'm telling you.
Speaker 10 (30:59):
Get this Stanley cup in there. They bring it on
their boats, the beach athletic fields. And you can customize
it Tom with those la Boo boo plushies.
Speaker 7 (31:07):
Wow makes it?
Speaker 2 (31:10):
Yes, it is, and you can hook the la boo
boo around it.
Speaker 10 (31:14):
You can hook the LaVoo boo on it. But Jeffrey's analyst.
They actually point to it and they're saying it's boosting
confidence in Yetti's stock. So that's giving it a little
bit of a boost. But this is the hot new thing.
You're going to see it all. You're going to see
it on the Jersey shore there.
Speaker 2 (31:28):
I'm telling you to be on thirteen people.
Speaker 8 (31:32):
Okay YETI Good.
Speaker 2 (31:33):
Morning Matthew and von Thank you so much for Michael
McMillan's CFO, Yetti Holdings.
Speaker 3 (31:41):
The Yetti water bottles, the technology there is life change.
Speaker 7 (31:44):
Oh yeah, the coolers are I'm sitting out.
Speaker 3 (31:47):
On the beach. I can't even hold my Yetty bottle.
It's so hot, but then the water's ice cold.
Speaker 8 (31:52):
It's unbelievable.
Speaker 3 (31:53):
It's crazy technology. But beach the thermost I grew up with.
Speaker 2 (31:57):
So this is a tote bag like a Trader Joe's.
Speaker 7 (32:00):
It's really durable, Like I think.
Speaker 2 (32:02):
Like, why is it superior to an LL bean bag.
Speaker 10 (32:05):
Because you can carry more stuff in it, it's waterproof,
it's durable. You know, you can drag it around, get
it knocked around, and it still survives.
Speaker 2 (32:13):
So if you have the LL being thermos of the
beverage of your choice and it leaks out into the
ll bean bag. You learn it's not water exactly.
Speaker 8 (32:23):
Next.
Speaker 10 (32:24):
Oh, by the way, someone on the chat was asking
if I can talk about a man toat I will
work on that.
Speaker 3 (32:29):
Okay, here we go.
Speaker 2 (32:30):
Moving on.
Speaker 10 (32:31):
This is people right when they travel to Europe in
the summer. One thing people always complain about is lack
of air conditioning. So the thing is heat waves are
happening more often, they're more intense. So the hot new
topic in European politics is this it's air conditioning. So
the Wall Street Journal says politicians on the right they've
been sounding off. You have Francis Marine La Penn proposed
(32:52):
this major campaign to put it in schools because a
lot of schools in France had to close down because
it was too hot. In the UK, Conservative urged London's
Labor Party to get rid of rules that restrict how
air condition can be used in new housing. But you
have the French authorities who are kind of pushing back
on this. They say air conditioning would eat up the
streets because of the exhaust. Then you have environmentalists saying
(33:14):
it's going to generate more greenhouse gas emissions too.
Speaker 3 (33:16):
On top of it.
Speaker 10 (33:17):
They say, what you need to do is plant more
greenery and that will make it.
Speaker 2 (33:20):
I actually did like a gemini you search on this
the other day and I guess air conditioning implementation is
speeding up. Yeah, I mean just because of the heat.
Speaker 3 (33:31):
Yeah, He's all I know is that the tube in
London is not air conditioning in some days.
Speaker 8 (33:36):
Boy wow.
Speaker 10 (33:37):
Yeah, especially seeze in a I do okay. Shopping malls,
we talked about it, right, A dying breed a lot
of places, but one in Queen's is actually thriving. This
is Tangrum. It's two hundred and seventy five thousand square
feet indoor shopping center and Flushing opened about three years ago.
But the thing that makes it different it has has
you know, boutiques and restaurants. It has you know, karaoke
(34:00):
places up till six in the morning.
Speaker 3 (34:01):
It's open arcades.
Speaker 10 (34:02):
It has the PopMart store which sells those La Boo boos.
It has a cat cafe. So it has all these
different things. Because they're saying it's not just shopping, it's
a destination for food and fun. And that's what mals
need to start doing, is going to that rather than
just the shopping.
Speaker 2 (34:18):
Alone, Lisa, take you. Thank you so much the newspapers
this morning.
Speaker 1 (34:23):
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, available on apples, Spotify,
and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday,
seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the
iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You
can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and
(34:43):
always on the Bloomberg terminal
Popular Podcasts
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Special Summer Offer: Exclusively on Apple Podcasts, try our Dateline Premium subscription completely free for one month! With Dateline Premium, you get every episode ad-free plus exclusive bonus content.
The Breakfast Club
The World's Most Dangerous Morning Show, The Breakfast Club, With DJ Envy, Jess Hilarious, And Charlamagne Tha God!
Crime Junkie
Does hearing about a true crime case always leave you scouring the internet for the truth behind the story? Dive into your next mystery with Crime Junkie. Every Monday, join your host Ashley Flowers as she unravels all the details of infamous and underreported true crime cases with her best friend Brit Prawat. From cold cases to missing persons and heroes in our community who seek justice, Crime Junkie is your destination for theories and stories you won’t hear anywhere else. Whether you're a seasoned true crime enthusiast or new to the genre, you'll find yourself on the edge of your seat awaiting a new episode every Monday. If you can never get enough true crime... Congratulations, you’ve found your people. Follow to join a community of Crime Junkies! Crime Junkie is presented by audiochuck Media Company.