March 12, 2025 • 26 mins
- Max Kettner, Chief Multi-Asset Strategist at HSBC
- Sheila Kahyaoglu, Managing Director: Equity Research at Jeffries
- David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management
- Mohamed El-Erian, President at Queens' College, Cambridge
Max Kettner of HSBC discusses whether equities will be able to weather unclear tariff policy or if there will be a continued slide. Sheila Kahyaoglu, Managing Director: Equity Research at Jeffries, talks about struggling airliners. David Kelly with JPMorgan Asset Management and Mohamed El-Erian, President at Queens' College, Cambridge and Bloomberg Opinion columnist, react to CPI.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
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Speaker 2 (00:11):
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along
with Lisa Bromwitz and am Marie Hordern. Join us each
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(00:33):
Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app at Beginning this hour,
with stocksin chin KaiA looking to snap a two day
losing streak, market's whipsword by tariff headlines are leading to
several downgrades for US sancreities. From Goldman, from City and
from HSBC. Join Gus now from HSBC, Max Ketner, Max,
Welcome back to the program, Sir, The facts have changed.
Talked to me about how the outlook might have changed
(00:55):
as well.
Speaker 3 (00:56):
Yeah, Look, I think we're still tactically quite cautious on equities.
We're all, particularly of course in the US. We've just
put out a note this morning. I think this is
the kind of time where you need to update your
framework your indicators pretty much on an hourly basis, because
like you guys were just discussing, of course, even yesterday,
things were changing pretty much three times during the day.
So when we look at our indicators at the moment,
(01:18):
particularly from a systematic perspective, of course, yes, there has
been quite a bit of systematic selling. But what we're
not yet seeing is this sort of final puke. So
when we look, for example, our momentum and slash CTA indicators,
they are bearish. They flipped from maximum bullish to bearish,
but they're only at sort of medium bearish levels until now.
(01:40):
So we need, I think, for us to be comfortable
to go back in and to buy the DIP, I
think we need a bit more sort of a puke
moment inequities to really say, right, this is the all clear. Now,
positioning is clear enough, systematics have sold enough, and of
course from a fundamental perspective, what's changed in the outlook.
So the stuff that you were alluding to is, you know,
(02:01):
we were all thinking there is some sort of put
from the new US administration. With that absent it is
down to the FED put. But of course with data
let's say like yesterday, like the jolt data, all services
of isms or payrolls still pretty pretty okay. You know,
in a normal environment, that would be really bootish for
equities and for risk assets overall. For the current environment, however,
(02:21):
it just puts the FED put even further away. Remember
what Powell was saying on Friday, We're in no hurry
at all to do anything in rates. So what we
would need is the FIT to give some kind of
not to tightening financial conditions, that they're monitoring market developments
something like that. But as they said on Friday, I
think we're still quite a bit of way off.
Speaker 2 (02:40):
There max a lot to unpack there. Let's start with
the technical term puke. What does the cathartic puke look like?
We had a ten percent decline at one point in
yesterday's session, so entered correction territory.
Speaker 4 (02:50):
Briefly, If it's not that, what is it?
Speaker 3 (02:53):
I think what we need to see is broader based.
Even on Monday, right breadth actually wasn't that bad. It
wasn't like it was all five hundred stocks going down.
It was still pretty sort of focused and pretty concentrated
on some certain sectors, and the high multiple sectors. I
think what you would want to see is sort of
the final broad based puke where it's not just you know,
tech and the high multiple stuff that gets hammered, but
(03:16):
really the broader market where perhaps even the equal weighted
SMP underperforms the cap weighted SMP. What you would want
to see is that spilling over into credit spreads as well,
right where we haven't really seen a disorderly widening as well,
and maybe even spilling over into other equity markets where
then people say, you know what, so far we've been
hinding out in European equities. We've been you know, thinking
(03:38):
that this is a completely different story. But now we're
really playing US for recession fears, and that should spill
over in to global equity markets once we've got that.
I think that is then sort of the final puke.
And another queue to watch perhaps is the momentum factor.
When we look, of course in US momentum, that momentum
factor has been absolutely slaughter the last three four weeks.
(04:00):
Any kind of bottoming there, any kind of a sign
of a reversal there, I think is another sign where
we can start buying.
Speaker 5 (04:05):
The dep I think this conversation needs a bit of
antacid and Max. I am curious about whether we're talking
about sort of the market equivalent of the economic debate
here of whether we're pricing in stagflation or pricing in
something more like a recession, and that is something Julia
Emmanuel was talking about, what are we pricing in currently?
What would you take more seriously right now at a
(04:27):
time where there are a lot of anxieties, but there
still are people who are hopeful that we could emerge
from this.
Speaker 3 (04:33):
I think stagflation fears were about a month ago, right
That was basically when we had January CPI particularly underlying
inflation much much higher than a lot of people, including
myself expected, where you know, super core inflation was really
coming in quite a bit hotter, and that really was
a month ago.
Speaker 4 (04:50):
When we look at the last three weeks, the amount.
Speaker 3 (04:53):
Of selling that we've seen in cyclicals versus defensives, particularly
in the US, the amount of decoupling between US cyclical
def against European cyclical defensives, or really rest of worlds
cyclical against defensive performance clearly tells us what the market
is playing now in particularly the last week and a
half is increasingly recession fears, so we are I think
(05:14):
we are getting closer to the point where you want
to start buying that correction. We're not just quite there
yet because I think, again, it would be different if
it was just the high multiple stuff, but we're starting
to see that spill over into other parts of the market.
Speaker 4 (05:28):
It's just not.
Speaker 3 (05:28):
Quite there yet where we can really sound the all
clear on the systematic positioning unwind being completely over.
Speaker 5 (05:35):
This is a complicated story. It's not just about recession
and recession fears in the US. It's also about relative
valuation and the fact that suddenly there is an alternative
and the idea that Europe looks brighter, especially with the
likelihood of some sort of fiscal package being passed. How
much do you lean into that and how much do
you say what a lot of people have sat on
this show over the past couple of days, which is
that's looking pretty expensive, looking pretty bad, that's already over.
Speaker 3 (05:59):
I mean, for one, what is amazing is think if
two months ago, if at the beginning of January, just
before inaugration, if we had said I think German small
in mid camps or European small and midcaps are the
quote relative save Haven in global equity land. I think
you guys would have thrown me out of this room
now and would have sent maybe don't come back again.
So it is quite funny how things have changed only
(06:21):
within a couple of weeks. I do agree with you
it is perhaps the Dacks is not the right place
maybe anymore. I think it's perhaps in Europe really the
small in midcamps that should benefit the most from perhaps
you know that the fiscal package in Germany getting over
the line. Also perhaps any potential kind of positive news
around Russia, Ukraine. All of that is really particularly beneficial
(06:43):
for the smaller in midcaps, but also for other parts
of the market. We look at China, I think the
China Internet that ags tech trade, that still has some
room to left. So it's not like we have to
throw in the towel on equities entirely, right. It is
so far mainly a US story. And I think in Europe, yeah,
find the higher euro, the stronger euro, I think is
starting to get felt in the larger caps, particularly in
(07:05):
the German equities, given that they you know, basically get
generate only or less than twenty percent of their revenues
outside of or inside of Germany and about eighty percent
outside of Germany. So the stronger euro will start awagh
on the performers there, But the smaller and midcaps, I
think really the ones that you want to look at.
Also the banks, right, we can look at European banks.
Still really good European insurance, So there's a lot of
(07:27):
stuff even within Europe also from a sector perspective under
the hood that is worth looking at.
Speaker 1 (07:32):
Max an incredible twenty four hours for Europe, potentially one
step closer to peace on the continent. At the same time,
you wake up and you see these retaliatory countermeasures to
US tariffs, what narrative do you think will prevail?
Speaker 3 (07:45):
Look, I think the narrative clearly for the US is
is that that put from or that we thought was
there from the US administration, either the strike price is
much further away, or maybe that put doesn't even exist
because they want to force in the fit. So I
think that narrative, particularly for you as risk assets, and
frankly at some point also for globally for risk assets
(08:06):
more broadly, will really prevail on the next couple of weeks,
because ultimately, for a sustained you know, for a sustained
reversal higher. We will need to see some kind of
not from the FED to say, Okay, you know what,
we are monitoring financial conditions, we are monitoring market developments.
And let's remember that was actually already enough in the
December twenty eighteen January twenty nineteen episode. You know, they
(08:29):
were starting to cut rates only in July twenty nineteen,
but in January already had that bullish reversal because all
the FED had to do is to say, well, financial
conditions are quote notably tighter than they were in September.
Speaker 4 (08:41):
That's all they had to do.
Speaker 3 (08:42):
They only had to say notably tighter, and already markets
were saying that's the FED put that's it.
Speaker 4 (08:47):
So we're not.
Speaker 3 (08:47):
Talking QE, we're not talking emergency rate cuts.
Speaker 4 (08:50):
What I'm talking about.
Speaker 3 (08:51):
Is literally just like a verbal not from the FED
that we need and that already I think from a
fundamental perspective, would then change that narrative that we've just
been talking about.
Speaker 2 (09:00):
A Max appreciate it. Thanks for the update. Max Canada
there of HSBC. On the equity market, Let's talk about
some of the stock moves we've seen in the past
twenty four hours we can in consumer demand, leading to
a sell off in airline stocks downta, spooking investors after
(09:21):
kind of its profit forecast in half. Chila Colu of
Jeffreyes joins US now for more chili. Good morning in rain,
big changes. What did you see what you were tracking
in the last month or so, what's happened with these airlines.
Speaker 6 (09:33):
We have a data series that tracks airline traffic on
apps and folks pre booking, so that data fell off
about ten percent over the last three months, so trailing
three months, but the three weeks really fell off. It
hit the lowest cost carriers the most. So back to
Ann Marie's point, it's in the heartland and where we're
seeing the demand fall off. But Delta signaled a fifty
(09:54):
percent revenue cut. They guided Q one seven to nine percent,
then they cut it to up three to four. So
still positive. As Ed Bastian said, we're not in recession territory.
But January and February, which is the last time we
heard from them about three weeks ago, was positive growth,
and so that means the last three weeks really decelerated.
So Q two is going to be very important because
it's about forty percent of airline earnings.
Speaker 5 (10:15):
As we strip out some of the motivating reasons for
why we saw such a deceleration in demand, can you
track the fall off in airline ticket purchases to some
of the safety issues that were raised?
Speaker 6 (10:28):
That was cited by both American and Delta yesterday, But
it was across the board, and that's what I think
startled so many folks. It was Delta close in bookings,
so people book airfares closer to when they're actually going
to travel. It was also corporate demands off, and we've
seen that in bizjet utilization data as well for February.
And then third it was a demand across government, which
(10:49):
United has about four percent of asms and American has
one point five, So it was.
Speaker 4 (10:53):
Across the board.
Speaker 6 (10:54):
It was Trump's policy's doge really impacting government employees, corporates
slowing down, and then you know just leisure demand slowing
as well.
Speaker 5 (11:03):
We heard from Delta that they plan to cut capacity
to meet slower demand heading into the summer. What does
that indicate to you about just how temporary this is,
or if potentially some of the airlines are preparing for
this fall off to continue for a longer period of
time and hoping to increase prices to compensate for it.
Speaker 6 (11:22):
I think domestically in the US market, capacity is already
very tight. That was the story of the first half
of last year. Capacity grew six to seven percent, and
then we exited the year about flat and the data
TSA volumes are flat year over year, but so is capacity.
So capacity is already fairly tight. So that's a soft
comment from Delta to make. To cut capacity, we have
(11:43):
to see demand come in, and I think the next
four to six weeks is going to be very critical
to see how the US consumer is going to react.
Speaker 1 (11:49):
Where does the demand come in. I think we were
all struck around this table yesterday when a headline dump
that dropped that United said fifty percent drop in government travel.
Who fills that void?
Speaker 6 (11:59):
It's hard, I mean, it's a small percentage of asms.
But then Delta also cited corporate demand across the board.
Airspace and defense was of course the sector cited as
well as leisures, so it wasn't only one thing, and
I think that's what is more concerning about the reads.
But again it's early and so that could change if
the SMP goes up for the next four weeks, I'm
(12:19):
sure people will start booking travel again. So it's all
based on market sentiment.
Speaker 1 (12:22):
What's more challenging domestic travel right now or international?
Speaker 6 (12:25):
Domestic is more challenging. Domestic has always been because you
have low cost carriers and so they priced down. You
see tickets from Spirit other low cost carriers for very cheap.
International is still very positive, and the good news is
eight three fifties and seven eight sevens are very slow
on the deliveries, so we're not seeing a lot of
capacity come into the market. In BacT, that market's very constrained.
Speaker 2 (12:47):
You suggested it's sequity market dependent. I might suggest it's
dose dependent. If I'm a federal worker this year, I'm
not traveling. If I've booked a vacation, I'm canceling it.
If you've got to raise a family at the moment
and you're dependent on the federal government fearr annual salary,
I'd be very very nervous abound the rest of the year.
How is that showing up in the numbers already?
Speaker 6 (13:04):
It's a small percentage of the market, but I think
DOJE in general, the headlines covering defense stocks is it's
what's scariest, some of the headlines they put out are
not actually the reality of what they're cutting. So again
it's going back to the uncertainty of a big headline,
and the reality suppose is that what are.
Speaker 4 (13:20):
They actually countsinc When it comes to defense, it's.
Speaker 6 (13:24):
Interesting to me because I thought they would go after larger,
more bureaucratic issues, but instead they're going after it services contractors,
which the six public ones we cover comprise about three
of the largest defense programs, So I thought they would
eliminate more waste, but they seem to be cutting very
quickly and very abruptly, so without any precision, which I
(13:44):
think creates problems as well.
Speaker 5 (13:46):
How much of the story is this? And I ask
this because yesterday I saw some comments out there like
if government spending was the main pillar of support for
the US consumer, then we had a pretty weak consumer
aside from some of the stimulus that was really in
to donch the government. Can you talk about what we've
seen in terms of consumer spending habits leading up to
(14:06):
this and then in the aftermath, and just how connected
to the federal spending it is versus the overall tote.
I know it's hard to parse out, but it kind
of gives a sense of where we're coming from.
Speaker 6 (14:15):
I think is the government employees. If you're a government
and employee, you're probably not traveling. But again, that's such
a small percentage of the market, and some of the
agencies were cutting from they've already had trouble recruiting and
we've just gone back to pre pandemic levels six years later.
So I think it's very problematic just cutting abruptly. And
I do think the airline cuts go back to consumer
(14:36):
sentiment on the overall market. As we've all seen our
stock prices have.
Speaker 4 (14:41):
What's your favorite name?
Speaker 6 (14:42):
This morning, I'm going to go I'm going to actually
pitch Boeing. I really like Boeing. I think outside the
Arrapad lines, the Macro, we haven't delivered a single plane
in six years. The skyline is over sold, and I
think investors have capitulated on just demand. They think we're
going to see demand destruction because the market's often for
the the last three weeks. But I think everybody's still
waiting for their plan and it's not going to get
(15:03):
out of line.
Speaker 2 (15:04):
So should I appreciate it? It's good to get off
to Spade with you. Thank you, Sulda Cary. There of
Jeffreeson joining us now is David Kelly of JP Morkan
Asset Management. David, that's some good news going into next week.
(15:24):
How much comfort will this bring the Federal Reserve?
Speaker 4 (15:28):
Only a little.
Speaker 7 (15:29):
I mean, if you look at the number of stage
just scanning them, we saw a four percent decline airline affairs,
which is probably you know, that affects some of the
things that the airlines are saying to us about some
weakening and demand. But I really think that the Federal
Reserve is in a very difficult position here. Until we
have some clarity on tariffs, they don't know how much
of an inflation kick we're going to get from tariffs
(15:50):
this year, and until we've got some clarity on the budget,
they don't know how much physical stimulus is going to
be kicked in next year. So I still think they'll
probably wait and see next week. This economy is beginning
to look like it needs or will you justifies a
rate cut, and I do think we'll probably end up
with more than one rate cut this year. I think
we may end up with a sequence of rate cuts.
(16:11):
But I think it's just too early for the Federal
Reserve to make a decision given the uncertainty about policy.
Speaker 5 (16:16):
What's fascinating to me is a reaction of markets, David,
the idea that you're seeing a bigger reaction right now
and equities in your bonds. This idea that maybe the
Fed put could come back into play and support valuations
even amid policy uncertainty.
Speaker 4 (16:30):
Do you buy that?
Speaker 5 (16:31):
Is that something that you think is a correct thesis?
Speaker 7 (16:35):
Well, I think that there's some other things on the
bond market's mind here. I mean one of them is
that if you look at the numbers that the CBO
put out yesterday on the budget depthsit so far this year,
it looks like we're going to crack two trillion dollars
this year, and we've got a massive budget deficit. And
the weaker the economy gets, the more likely it is
that we're going to see even more fiscal stimulus kick
in next year. So we've got a deteriorating situation, a
(16:57):
fiscal situation here, and sow economic growth and tariffs will
only make it worse. So that may be supporting real
yels here, even if inflation backs off a bit on
weaken economic growth next year, So I think there's more
than just inflation and the FED on the bond market's mind.
Speaker 5 (17:16):
Which is also part of the reason why the FED
might have a hard time just embracing this data and
then signaling next week that they plan to cut rates
sooner than maybe they expected. David, what do they need
to see to have confidence in the forward trajectory given
that this is backward moving and we have policy that
is pushing companies to act in real time.
Speaker 7 (17:35):
Yeah, I think the most important thing would be a
sort of a final story on tariffs for this year
and for the next few years. We know obviously, as
an economist, I believe that zero tariffs are the correct policy.
I think that's a fairly traditional conservative perspective. But some
clarity on that is vital for them to figure out,
(17:56):
you know, how is how's the economy going to evolve?
I mean, what the FED has said very clearly two
days after the election, j Palell said, we're not going
to assume, We're not going to guess, and we're not
going to speculate. But they'd have to assume guests and
speculate if they move policy right now, and that's what
they're trying to avoid so that the administration and Congress
really need to figure out what the policy playing field
(18:17):
is going to be over the next few years, then
the Pederal Reserve can try to make some decisions.
Speaker 2 (18:21):
David Kelly if JP Morgan Accent Management, David, thank you.
The Federal Reserve meeting a week away, David really painted
a picture of what a tricky position this Federal Reserve
is going to be in a week from today. It
could have been trickier without a data point like the
one we just got.
Speaker 5 (18:34):
At least they don't have runaway inflation of the idea,
they're coming into a potential inflationary shock. I'll be at
a one time price adjustment. There is some sense of disinflation.
That said, the fact that if you do have a
weakening economy that that could lead to more fiscal stimulus
makes it very complicated for bond investors, let alone just
the FED.
Speaker 2 (18:53):
If you are just joining us, welcome to the program.
Moments ago, a small downside surprise on CPI headline month
over month zero point two percent the estimate zero point three.
Stripping out food and energy zero point two percent, the
estimate zero point three. To discuss this and a whole
lot more joining us. Nas Mohammad, Aaron of Queen's College, Cambridge. Mhammed,
Welcome back to the program sir, good to catch up
(19:14):
with you. Important data point. How does this change things
if at all?
Speaker 8 (19:19):
So if you talk to economists, I'll tell you looking
back it's good news. Looking forward, there's very little information
content because of what David just said. What you've been
discussing all day is we don't know what to pass
through of expected and actual tariffs will be. So that's
where the economists are. For those in the market having
(19:42):
been disappointed on the Trump put, this is better news
on the Fed put, and I think that's why you're
getting such a strong reaction on the equity side.
Speaker 2 (19:52):
There's been so much confusion Mhammad about tariffs in the
past twenty four hours or so. US several hats, one
of which is you've been a business leader for many,
many years, and I think you made the important distinction
when we had the boom of inflation. You made the
point that this was not going to be transitory because
of what you saw at the corporate level, how companies
were acting and how they were responding given the threat
(20:13):
of higher tower is still to come. What do you
see now from companies and what does it indicate to
you about what data might look like in months and
quarters to come.
Speaker 8 (20:22):
So two things are obvious to me, John. One is
that companies have gone into a wake and see attitude
and understandly so, especially if you're multinational, you need clarity.
So you're postponing decisions because you don't want to make
a decision that ends up being a big mistake because
the world has changed on you. So we are seeing
(20:42):
business activities slow down. The second thing we're seeing is
people are much more ready to pull the trigger on
price increases than they were in twenty twenty one twenty
twenty two. So if these tariffs stick, and if if
we get more did for tat trade issues and things
(21:05):
like that, then they pass through to prices will be
quick and it will come at a time when demand
is softening. So then you bring the third issue, which
is a consumer. The consumer is hesitant already. I take
seriously what you've been saying, all of you saying about
what's happening to airline, what you're hearing from different retailers.
(21:25):
There's been risk aversion clarity on the sense of the household.
So put all that together, John, it is a weight
and see economy that cannot absorb much of a price hit.
Speaker 1 (21:37):
Is it an economy that can potentially enter recessions?
Speaker 8 (21:39):
Here, Muhammad, my probability is twenty five to thirty percent.
It was ten percent at the beginning of the year,
so there's been quite quite a big change. Why isn't
it higher Because it's a lot good happening in the
US economy as well. But if we get a prolongation
of policy uncertainty, then that probability will go up.
Speaker 5 (22:00):
There's a question about the response from central banks globally, Mohammed.
If you do have this environment where inflationary pressures are
going to be stickier at the same time that you
have slow in growth. Christine Laguard called it an era
of shock and saying that maintaining stability in a new
era will be a formidable task. If the central banks
around the world had to choose what's worse allowing inflation
(22:21):
to be a little bit hotter but trying to help
growth or suppressing inflation at the risk of not rescuing
growth and allowing it to continue to plummet.
Speaker 8 (22:30):
So for both Europe and the US, it is the former,
these economies can get to stall speed pretty quickly. We
don't want that because the damage that that creates is significant.
So tolerating slightly higher inflation would be the better choice
the way you framed it. But Lisa, remember these are
(22:52):
central banks that made a huge mistake, and they may
be much more sensitive to inflation than than we would
be given the mistakes they made.
Speaker 5 (23:04):
The idea of transitory and not maybe responding to it
in a way that maybe they should have. I'm just
wondering if let's say they did take what you just
said seriously and they did say, look, we're going to
have to just tolerate higher inflation for longer and we
really need to address slower growth, how many times would
you expect them to have to cut this year in
order to offset some of the uncertainty and frankly, the
(23:26):
consumer demand destruction that we're seeing in real time.
Speaker 8 (23:30):
So to be clear, if two percent was really the
operative inflation target, we wouldn't be speculating on how many
cuts would be speculating on the timing of the hike
because the data has sold for quite a long time,
but because most people believe that two percent is a
medium term to long term target, there is speculation and
(23:53):
how many cuts. I'm in the one camp. I think,
given what we know today, we get one now if
the tarrier tensions persist and did for TAT get worse.
I mean, at some point yesterday with Canada, we were
near tipping points and that would have forced a FED
to revisit what is thinking right now about weight cuts.
(24:17):
So it really depends where this trade war goes.
Speaker 2 (24:20):
Lisa Muhammed, I want to revisit one of your best calls.
You are probably one of the best risk managers that
I know, that's for sure. I want to talk about
February nineteenth, February nineteenth all time highs, and not the
February nineteenth all time high of twenty twenty five. The
February nineteenth all time high of twenty twenty and I
remember you came out around that time and you said,
(24:42):
don't buy this now. The equity market is corrected in
twenty twenty five ten percent from the all time highs
of February nineteen, but it's quite a parallel to think
about those two dates. Muhammed, what would your approach be
to markets now and equity specifically, So.
Speaker 8 (24:57):
I'm asked this all the time. John, I was asked
this morning by someone here in the college, is it
time to buy? It's very tempting to buy because with
ten percent off on the SMP, with thirteen to fourteen
percent off on the Nasdaq. I respond very simply, what
mistake can you not afford to make? You know, most
(25:19):
mistakes in the investment world are forgivable over time, and
that's a great thing about the investment world. If you
bet on something that the faults, that's a different issue.
So investors need to understand how much tolerance DoD they
have for short term mistakes and how much tolerance should
they have for volatility, because the probability of both these
(25:39):
things has gotten a lot higher than it was at
the beginnion of the year.
Speaker 4 (25:42):
Muhammed, I appreciate your time. You one of the best.
Speaker 2 (25:44):
Thanks for catching up with it's a good friend of
this program, a good friend of ours. Mohammed al Aaron
of Queens College, Cambridge. This is the Bloomberg Survenmans podcast,
bringing you the best in markets, economics, and gie politics.
You can watch the show live on Bloomberg TV weekday
mornings from six am to nine am Eastern. Subscribe to
the podcast on Apple, Spotify or anywhere else you listen,
(26:05):
and as always, on the Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg
Business app.
Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along
with Lisa Bromwitz and am Marie Hordern. Join us each
day for insight from the best in markets, economics, and
geopolitics from our global headquarters in New York City. We
are live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from six to
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or anywhere else you listen, and as always on the
(00:33):
Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app at Beginning this hour,
with stocksin chin KaiA looking to snap a two day
losing streak, market's whipsword by tariff headlines are leading to
several downgrades for US sancreities. From Goldman, from City and
from HSBC. Join Gus now from HSBC, Max Ketner, Max,
Welcome back to the program, Sir, The facts have changed.
Talked to me about how the outlook might have changed
(00:55):
as well.
Speaker 3 (00:56):
Yeah, Look, I think we're still tactically quite cautious on equities.
We're all, particularly of course in the US. We've just
put out a note this morning. I think this is
the kind of time where you need to update your
framework your indicators pretty much on an hourly basis, because
like you guys were just discussing, of course, even yesterday,
things were changing pretty much three times during the day.
So when we look at our indicators at the moment,
(01:18):
particularly from a systematic perspective, of course, yes, there has
been quite a bit of systematic selling. But what we're
not yet seeing is this sort of final puke. So
when we look, for example, our momentum and slash CTA indicators,
they are bearish. They flipped from maximum bullish to bearish,
but they're only at sort of medium bearish levels until now.
(01:40):
So we need, I think, for us to be comfortable
to go back in and to buy the DIP, I
think we need a bit more sort of a puke
moment inequities to really say, right, this is the all clear. Now,
positioning is clear enough, systematics have sold enough, and of
course from a fundamental perspective, what's changed in the outlook.
So the stuff that you were alluding to is, you know,
(02:01):
we were all thinking there is some sort of put
from the new US administration. With that absent it is
down to the FED put. But of course with data
let's say like yesterday, like the jolt data, all services
of isms or payrolls still pretty pretty okay. You know,
in a normal environment, that would be really bootish for
equities and for risk assets overall. For the current environment, however,
(02:21):
it just puts the FED put even further away. Remember
what Powell was saying on Friday, We're in no hurry
at all to do anything in rates. So what we
would need is the FIT to give some kind of
not to tightening financial conditions, that they're monitoring market developments
something like that. But as they said on Friday, I
think we're still quite a bit of way off.
Speaker 2 (02:40):
There max a lot to unpack there. Let's start with
the technical term puke. What does the cathartic puke look like?
We had a ten percent decline at one point in
yesterday's session, so entered correction territory.
Speaker 4 (02:50):
Briefly, If it's not that, what is it?
Speaker 3 (02:53):
I think what we need to see is broader based.
Even on Monday, right breadth actually wasn't that bad. It
wasn't like it was all five hundred stocks going down.
It was still pretty sort of focused and pretty concentrated
on some certain sectors, and the high multiple sectors. I
think what you would want to see is sort of
the final broad based puke where it's not just you know,
tech and the high multiple stuff that gets hammered, but
(03:16):
really the broader market where perhaps even the equal weighted
SMP underperforms the cap weighted SMP. What you would want
to see is that spilling over into credit spreads as well,
right where we haven't really seen a disorderly widening as well,
and maybe even spilling over into other equity markets where
then people say, you know what, so far we've been
hinding out in European equities. We've been you know, thinking
(03:38):
that this is a completely different story. But now we're
really playing US for recession fears, and that should spill
over in to global equity markets once we've got that.
I think that is then sort of the final puke.
And another queue to watch perhaps is the momentum factor.
When we look, of course in US momentum, that momentum
factor has been absolutely slaughter the last three four weeks.
(04:00):
Any kind of bottoming there, any kind of a sign
of a reversal there, I think is another sign where
we can start buying.
Speaker 5 (04:05):
The dep I think this conversation needs a bit of
antacid and Max. I am curious about whether we're talking
about sort of the market equivalent of the economic debate
here of whether we're pricing in stagflation or pricing in
something more like a recession, and that is something Julia
Emmanuel was talking about, what are we pricing in currently?
What would you take more seriously right now at a
(04:27):
time where there are a lot of anxieties, but there
still are people who are hopeful that we could emerge
from this.
Speaker 3 (04:33):
I think stagflation fears were about a month ago, right
That was basically when we had January CPI particularly underlying
inflation much much higher than a lot of people, including
myself expected, where you know, super core inflation was really
coming in quite a bit hotter, and that really was
a month ago.
Speaker 4 (04:50):
When we look at the last three weeks, the amount.
Speaker 3 (04:53):
Of selling that we've seen in cyclicals versus defensives, particularly
in the US, the amount of decoupling between US cyclical
def against European cyclical defensives, or really rest of worlds
cyclical against defensive performance clearly tells us what the market
is playing now in particularly the last week and a
half is increasingly recession fears, so we are I think
(05:14):
we are getting closer to the point where you want
to start buying that correction. We're not just quite there
yet because I think, again, it would be different if
it was just the high multiple stuff, but we're starting
to see that spill over into other parts of the market.
Speaker 4 (05:28):
It's just not.
Speaker 3 (05:28):
Quite there yet where we can really sound the all
clear on the systematic positioning unwind being completely over.
Speaker 5 (05:35):
This is a complicated story. It's not just about recession
and recession fears in the US. It's also about relative
valuation and the fact that suddenly there is an alternative
and the idea that Europe looks brighter, especially with the
likelihood of some sort of fiscal package being passed. How
much do you lean into that and how much do
you say what a lot of people have sat on
this show over the past couple of days, which is
that's looking pretty expensive, looking pretty bad, that's already over.
Speaker 3 (05:59):
I mean, for one, what is amazing is think if
two months ago, if at the beginning of January, just
before inaugration, if we had said I think German small
in mid camps or European small and midcaps are the
quote relative save Haven in global equity land. I think
you guys would have thrown me out of this room
now and would have sent maybe don't come back again.
So it is quite funny how things have changed only
(06:21):
within a couple of weeks. I do agree with you
it is perhaps the Dacks is not the right place
maybe anymore. I think it's perhaps in Europe really the
small in midcamps that should benefit the most from perhaps
you know that the fiscal package in Germany getting over
the line. Also perhaps any potential kind of positive news
around Russia, Ukraine. All of that is really particularly beneficial
(06:43):
for the smaller in midcaps, but also for other parts
of the market. We look at China, I think the
China Internet that ags tech trade, that still has some
room to left. So it's not like we have to
throw in the towel on equities entirely, right. It is
so far mainly a US story. And I think in Europe, yeah,
find the higher euro, the stronger euro, I think is
starting to get felt in the larger caps, particularly in
(07:05):
the German equities, given that they you know, basically get
generate only or less than twenty percent of their revenues
outside of or inside of Germany and about eighty percent
outside of Germany. So the stronger euro will start awagh
on the performers there, But the smaller and midcaps, I
think really the ones that you want to look at.
Also the banks, right, we can look at European banks.
Still really good European insurance, So there's a lot of
(07:27):
stuff even within Europe also from a sector perspective under
the hood that is worth looking at.
Speaker 1 (07:32):
Max an incredible twenty four hours for Europe, potentially one
step closer to peace on the continent. At the same time,
you wake up and you see these retaliatory countermeasures to
US tariffs, what narrative do you think will prevail?
Speaker 3 (07:45):
Look, I think the narrative clearly for the US is
is that that put from or that we thought was
there from the US administration, either the strike price is
much further away, or maybe that put doesn't even exist
because they want to force in the fit. So I
think that narrative, particularly for you as risk assets, and
frankly at some point also for globally for risk assets
(08:06):
more broadly, will really prevail on the next couple of weeks,
because ultimately, for a sustained you know, for a sustained
reversal higher. We will need to see some kind of
not from the FED to say, Okay, you know what,
we are monitoring financial conditions, we are monitoring market developments.
And let's remember that was actually already enough in the
December twenty eighteen January twenty nineteen episode. You know, they
(08:29):
were starting to cut rates only in July twenty nineteen,
but in January already had that bullish reversal because all
the FED had to do is to say, well, financial
conditions are quote notably tighter than they were in September.
Speaker 4 (08:41):
That's all they had to do.
Speaker 3 (08:42):
They only had to say notably tighter, and already markets
were saying that's the FED put that's it.
Speaker 4 (08:47):
So we're not.
Speaker 3 (08:47):
Talking QE, we're not talking emergency rate cuts.
Speaker 4 (08:50):
What I'm talking about.
Speaker 3 (08:51):
Is literally just like a verbal not from the FED
that we need and that already I think from a
fundamental perspective, would then change that narrative that we've just
been talking about.
Speaker 2 (09:00):
A Max appreciate it. Thanks for the update. Max Canada
there of HSBC. On the equity market, Let's talk about
some of the stock moves we've seen in the past
twenty four hours we can in consumer demand, leading to
a sell off in airline stocks downta, spooking investors after
(09:21):
kind of its profit forecast in half. Chila Colu of
Jeffreyes joins US now for more chili. Good morning in rain,
big changes. What did you see what you were tracking
in the last month or so, what's happened with these airlines.
Speaker 6 (09:33):
We have a data series that tracks airline traffic on
apps and folks pre booking, so that data fell off
about ten percent over the last three months, so trailing
three months, but the three weeks really fell off. It
hit the lowest cost carriers the most. So back to
Ann Marie's point, it's in the heartland and where we're
seeing the demand fall off. But Delta signaled a fifty
(09:54):
percent revenue cut. They guided Q one seven to nine percent,
then they cut it to up three to four. So
still positive. As Ed Bastian said, we're not in recession territory.
But January and February, which is the last time we
heard from them about three weeks ago, was positive growth,
and so that means the last three weeks really decelerated.
So Q two is going to be very important because
it's about forty percent of airline earnings.
Speaker 5 (10:15):
As we strip out some of the motivating reasons for
why we saw such a deceleration in demand, can you
track the fall off in airline ticket purchases to some
of the safety issues that were raised?
Speaker 6 (10:28):
That was cited by both American and Delta yesterday, But
it was across the board, and that's what I think
startled so many folks. It was Delta close in bookings,
so people book airfares closer to when they're actually going
to travel. It was also corporate demands off, and we've
seen that in bizjet utilization data as well for February.
And then third it was a demand across government, which
(10:49):
United has about four percent of asms and American has
one point five, So it was.
Speaker 4 (10:53):
Across the board.
Speaker 6 (10:54):
It was Trump's policy's doge really impacting government employees, corporates
slowing down, and then you know just leisure demand slowing
as well.
Speaker 5 (11:03):
We heard from Delta that they plan to cut capacity
to meet slower demand heading into the summer. What does
that indicate to you about just how temporary this is,
or if potentially some of the airlines are preparing for
this fall off to continue for a longer period of
time and hoping to increase prices to compensate for it.
Speaker 6 (11:22):
I think domestically in the US market, capacity is already
very tight. That was the story of the first half
of last year. Capacity grew six to seven percent, and
then we exited the year about flat and the data
TSA volumes are flat year over year, but so is capacity.
So capacity is already fairly tight. So that's a soft
comment from Delta to make. To cut capacity, we have
(11:43):
to see demand come in, and I think the next
four to six weeks is going to be very critical
to see how the US consumer is going to react.
Speaker 1 (11:49):
Where does the demand come in. I think we were
all struck around this table yesterday when a headline dump
that dropped that United said fifty percent drop in government travel.
Who fills that void?
Speaker 6 (11:59):
It's hard, I mean, it's a small percentage of asms.
But then Delta also cited corporate demand across the board.
Airspace and defense was of course the sector cited as
well as leisures, so it wasn't only one thing, and
I think that's what is more concerning about the reads.
But again it's early and so that could change if
the SMP goes up for the next four weeks, I'm
(12:19):
sure people will start booking travel again. So it's all
based on market sentiment.
Speaker 1 (12:22):
What's more challenging domestic travel right now or international?
Speaker 6 (12:25):
Domestic is more challenging. Domestic has always been because you
have low cost carriers and so they priced down. You
see tickets from Spirit other low cost carriers for very cheap.
International is still very positive, and the good news is
eight three fifties and seven eight sevens are very slow
on the deliveries, so we're not seeing a lot of
capacity come into the market. In BacT, that market's very constrained.
Speaker 2 (12:47):
You suggested it's sequity market dependent. I might suggest it's
dose dependent. If I'm a federal worker this year, I'm
not traveling. If I've booked a vacation, I'm canceling it.
If you've got to raise a family at the moment
and you're dependent on the federal government fearr annual salary,
I'd be very very nervous abound the rest of the year.
How is that showing up in the numbers already?
Speaker 6 (13:04):
It's a small percentage of the market, but I think
DOJE in general, the headlines covering defense stocks is it's
what's scariest, some of the headlines they put out are
not actually the reality of what they're cutting. So again
it's going back to the uncertainty of a big headline,
and the reality suppose is that what are.
Speaker 4 (13:20):
They actually countsinc When it comes to defense, it's.
Speaker 6 (13:24):
Interesting to me because I thought they would go after larger,
more bureaucratic issues, but instead they're going after it services contractors,
which the six public ones we cover comprise about three
of the largest defense programs, So I thought they would
eliminate more waste, but they seem to be cutting very
quickly and very abruptly, so without any precision, which I
(13:44):
think creates problems as well.
Speaker 5 (13:46):
How much of the story is this? And I ask
this because yesterday I saw some comments out there like
if government spending was the main pillar of support for
the US consumer, then we had a pretty weak consumer
aside from some of the stimulus that was really in
to donch the government. Can you talk about what we've
seen in terms of consumer spending habits leading up to
(14:06):
this and then in the aftermath, and just how connected
to the federal spending it is versus the overall tote.
I know it's hard to parse out, but it kind
of gives a sense of where we're coming from.
Speaker 6 (14:15):
I think is the government employees. If you're a government
and employee, you're probably not traveling. But again, that's such
a small percentage of the market, and some of the
agencies were cutting from they've already had trouble recruiting and
we've just gone back to pre pandemic levels six years later.
So I think it's very problematic just cutting abruptly. And
I do think the airline cuts go back to consumer
(14:36):
sentiment on the overall market. As we've all seen our
stock prices have.
Speaker 4 (14:41):
What's your favorite name?
Speaker 6 (14:42):
This morning, I'm going to go I'm going to actually
pitch Boeing. I really like Boeing. I think outside the
Arrapad lines, the Macro, we haven't delivered a single plane
in six years. The skyline is over sold, and I
think investors have capitulated on just demand. They think we're
going to see demand destruction because the market's often for
the the last three weeks. But I think everybody's still
waiting for their plan and it's not going to get
(15:03):
out of line.
Speaker 2 (15:04):
So should I appreciate it? It's good to get off
to Spade with you. Thank you, Sulda Cary. There of
Jeffreeson joining us now is David Kelly of JP Morkan
Asset Management. David, that's some good news going into next week.
(15:24):
How much comfort will this bring the Federal Reserve?
Speaker 4 (15:28):
Only a little.
Speaker 7 (15:29):
I mean, if you look at the number of stage
just scanning them, we saw a four percent decline airline affairs,
which is probably you know, that affects some of the
things that the airlines are saying to us about some
weakening and demand. But I really think that the Federal
Reserve is in a very difficult position here. Until we
have some clarity on tariffs, they don't know how much
of an inflation kick we're going to get from tariffs
(15:50):
this year, and until we've got some clarity on the budget,
they don't know how much physical stimulus is going to
be kicked in next year. So I still think they'll
probably wait and see next week. This economy is beginning
to look like it needs or will you justifies a
rate cut, and I do think we'll probably end up
with more than one rate cut this year. I think
we may end up with a sequence of rate cuts.
(16:11):
But I think it's just too early for the Federal
Reserve to make a decision given the uncertainty about policy.
Speaker 5 (16:16):
What's fascinating to me is a reaction of markets, David,
the idea that you're seeing a bigger reaction right now
and equities in your bonds. This idea that maybe the
Fed put could come back into play and support valuations
even amid policy uncertainty.
Speaker 4 (16:30):
Do you buy that?
Speaker 5 (16:31):
Is that something that you think is a correct thesis?
Speaker 7 (16:35):
Well, I think that there's some other things on the
bond market's mind here. I mean one of them is
that if you look at the numbers that the CBO
put out yesterday on the budget depthsit so far this year,
it looks like we're going to crack two trillion dollars
this year, and we've got a massive budget deficit. And
the weaker the economy gets, the more likely it is
that we're going to see even more fiscal stimulus kick
in next year. So we've got a deteriorating situation, a
(16:57):
fiscal situation here, and sow economic growth and tariffs will
only make it worse. So that may be supporting real
yels here, even if inflation backs off a bit on
weaken economic growth next year, So I think there's more
than just inflation and the FED on the bond market's mind.
Speaker 5 (17:16):
Which is also part of the reason why the FED
might have a hard time just embracing this data and
then signaling next week that they plan to cut rates
sooner than maybe they expected. David, what do they need
to see to have confidence in the forward trajectory given
that this is backward moving and we have policy that
is pushing companies to act in real time.
Speaker 7 (17:35):
Yeah, I think the most important thing would be a
sort of a final story on tariffs for this year
and for the next few years. We know obviously, as
an economist, I believe that zero tariffs are the correct policy.
I think that's a fairly traditional conservative perspective. But some
clarity on that is vital for them to figure out,
(17:56):
you know, how is how's the economy going to evolve?
I mean, what the FED has said very clearly two
days after the election, j Palell said, we're not going
to assume, We're not going to guess, and we're not
going to speculate. But they'd have to assume guests and
speculate if they move policy right now, and that's what
they're trying to avoid so that the administration and Congress
really need to figure out what the policy playing field
(18:17):
is going to be over the next few years, then
the Pederal Reserve can try to make some decisions.
Speaker 2 (18:21):
David Kelly if JP Morgan Accent Management, David, thank you.
The Federal Reserve meeting a week away, David really painted
a picture of what a tricky position this Federal Reserve
is going to be in a week from today. It
could have been trickier without a data point like the
one we just got.
Speaker 5 (18:34):
At least they don't have runaway inflation of the idea,
they're coming into a potential inflationary shock. I'll be at
a one time price adjustment. There is some sense of disinflation.
That said, the fact that if you do have a
weakening economy that that could lead to more fiscal stimulus
makes it very complicated for bond investors, let alone just
the FED.
Speaker 2 (18:53):
If you are just joining us, welcome to the program.
Moments ago, a small downside surprise on CPI headline month
over month zero point two percent the estimate zero point three.
Stripping out food and energy zero point two percent, the
estimate zero point three. To discuss this and a whole
lot more joining us. Nas Mohammad, Aaron of Queen's College, Cambridge. Mhammed,
Welcome back to the program sir, good to catch up
(19:14):
with you. Important data point. How does this change things
if at all?
Speaker 8 (19:19):
So if you talk to economists, I'll tell you looking
back it's good news. Looking forward, there's very little information
content because of what David just said. What you've been
discussing all day is we don't know what to pass
through of expected and actual tariffs will be. So that's
where the economists are. For those in the market having
(19:42):
been disappointed on the Trump put, this is better news
on the Fed put, and I think that's why you're
getting such a strong reaction on the equity side.
Speaker 2 (19:52):
There's been so much confusion Mhammad about tariffs in the
past twenty four hours or so. US several hats, one
of which is you've been a business leader for many,
many years, and I think you made the important distinction
when we had the boom of inflation. You made the
point that this was not going to be transitory because
of what you saw at the corporate level, how companies
were acting and how they were responding given the threat
(20:13):
of higher tower is still to come. What do you
see now from companies and what does it indicate to
you about what data might look like in months and
quarters to come.
Speaker 8 (20:22):
So two things are obvious to me, John. One is
that companies have gone into a wake and see attitude
and understandly so, especially if you're multinational, you need clarity.
So you're postponing decisions because you don't want to make
a decision that ends up being a big mistake because
the world has changed on you. So we are seeing
(20:42):
business activities slow down. The second thing we're seeing is
people are much more ready to pull the trigger on
price increases than they were in twenty twenty one twenty
twenty two. So if these tariffs stick, and if if
we get more did for tat trade issues and things
(21:05):
like that, then they pass through to prices will be
quick and it will come at a time when demand
is softening. So then you bring the third issue, which
is a consumer. The consumer is hesitant already. I take
seriously what you've been saying, all of you saying about
what's happening to airline, what you're hearing from different retailers.
(21:25):
There's been risk aversion clarity on the sense of the household.
So put all that together, John, it is a weight
and see economy that cannot absorb much of a price hit.
Speaker 1 (21:37):
Is it an economy that can potentially enter recessions?
Speaker 8 (21:39):
Here, Muhammad, my probability is twenty five to thirty percent.
It was ten percent at the beginning of the year,
so there's been quite quite a big change. Why isn't
it higher Because it's a lot good happening in the
US economy as well. But if we get a prolongation
of policy uncertainty, then that probability will go up.
Speaker 5 (22:00):
There's a question about the response from central banks globally, Mohammed.
If you do have this environment where inflationary pressures are
going to be stickier at the same time that you
have slow in growth. Christine Laguard called it an era
of shock and saying that maintaining stability in a new
era will be a formidable task. If the central banks
around the world had to choose what's worse allowing inflation
(22:21):
to be a little bit hotter but trying to help
growth or suppressing inflation at the risk of not rescuing
growth and allowing it to continue to plummet.
Speaker 8 (22:30):
So for both Europe and the US, it is the former,
these economies can get to stall speed pretty quickly. We
don't want that because the damage that that creates is significant.
So tolerating slightly higher inflation would be the better choice
the way you framed it. But Lisa, remember these are
(22:52):
central banks that made a huge mistake, and they may
be much more sensitive to inflation than than we would
be given the mistakes they made.
Speaker 5 (23:04):
The idea of transitory and not maybe responding to it
in a way that maybe they should have. I'm just
wondering if let's say they did take what you just
said seriously and they did say, look, we're going to
have to just tolerate higher inflation for longer and we
really need to address slower growth, how many times would
you expect them to have to cut this year in
order to offset some of the uncertainty and frankly, the
(23:26):
consumer demand destruction that we're seeing in real time.
Speaker 8 (23:30):
So to be clear, if two percent was really the
operative inflation target, we wouldn't be speculating on how many
cuts would be speculating on the timing of the hike
because the data has sold for quite a long time,
but because most people believe that two percent is a
medium term to long term target, there is speculation and
(23:53):
how many cuts. I'm in the one camp. I think,
given what we know today, we get one now if
the tarrier tensions persist and did for TAT get worse.
I mean, at some point yesterday with Canada, we were
near tipping points and that would have forced a FED
to revisit what is thinking right now about weight cuts.
(24:17):
So it really depends where this trade war goes.
Speaker 2 (24:20):
Lisa Muhammed, I want to revisit one of your best calls.
You are probably one of the best risk managers that
I know, that's for sure. I want to talk about
February nineteenth, February nineteenth all time highs, and not the
February nineteenth all time high of twenty twenty five. The
February nineteenth all time high of twenty twenty and I
remember you came out around that time and you said,
(24:42):
don't buy this now. The equity market is corrected in
twenty twenty five ten percent from the all time highs
of February nineteen, but it's quite a parallel to think
about those two dates. Muhammed, what would your approach be
to markets now and equity specifically, So.
Speaker 8 (24:57):
I'm asked this all the time. John, I was asked
this morning by someone here in the college, is it
time to buy? It's very tempting to buy because with
ten percent off on the SMP, with thirteen to fourteen
percent off on the Nasdaq. I respond very simply, what
mistake can you not afford to make? You know, most
(25:19):
mistakes in the investment world are forgivable over time, and
that's a great thing about the investment world. If you
bet on something that the faults, that's a different issue.
So investors need to understand how much tolerance DoD they
have for short term mistakes and how much tolerance should
they have for volatility, because the probability of both these
(25:39):
things has gotten a lot higher than it was at
the beginnion of the year.
Speaker 4 (25:42):
Muhammed, I appreciate your time. You one of the best.
Speaker 2 (25:44):
Thanks for catching up with it's a good friend of
this program, a good friend of ours. Mohammed al Aaron
of Queens College, Cambridge. This is the Bloomberg Survenmans podcast,
bringing you the best in markets, economics, and gie politics.
You can watch the show live on Bloomberg TV weekday
mornings from six am to nine am Eastern. Subscribe to
the podcast on Apple, Spotify or anywhere else you listen,
(26:05):
and as always, on the Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg
Business app.
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