August 12, 2025 • 50 mins
Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.
Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyAugust 12th, 2025
Featuring:
1) Constance Hunter, Chief Economist at EIU and Rebecca Patterson, former Chief Investment Strategist at Bridgewater, react to CPI and discusses weakening US labor data, as well as President Trump naming EJ Antoni the new BLS chief. Despite economists concerned about the potential for rising inflation, Wall Street firms, including JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Morgan Stanley, expect investors to focus on strong corporate earnings and interest-rate cuts, according to Andrew Tyler and Mike Wilson.
2) Ethan Harris, former Head of Global Economic Research at Bank of America, talks about CPI and the reliability of American economic data with a new BLS chief. President Trump wrote that Antoni will ensure that the numbers released are "HONEST and ACCURATE", and Steve Bannon called Antoni "the perfect guy at the perfect time to run the BLS." Erica Groshen said that what worries her is that the nominee and his work are not well known in the business, academic or public service communities, and Jason Furman said that Antoni is "completely unqualified" to lead BLS.
3) Kira Rudik, Member of Parliament for the Ukrainian government, on the war in Ukraine, President Trump's summit with Vladimir Putin in Alaska this Friday, and the scheduled call between President Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskiy and other European leaders on Wednesday. President Trump is downplaying expectations for his upcoming meeting with Russian leader Vladimir Putin, calling it a "feel-out meeting."
4) Huw van Steenis, Partner at Oliver Wyman, discusses private credit outlook and the enablement of retirement savings to invest in private assets.
5) Lisa Mateo joins with the latest headlines in newspapers across the US, including a Wall Street Journal on salaries and Bloomberg's reporting on Taylor Swift's album announcement.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
This is the.
Speaker 1 (00:13):
Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am
Eastern on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg
Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts,
or watch us live on YouTube the.
Speaker 3 (00:27):
Concerts Center here at Chief Economists yeaws to get us
to the report, Rebecca Patterson's scheduled after its commercial free
across the nation in this hour cons there's no whisper number.
How do you guess the inflation report? If there's so
many subsets, do you have to go down to each
subset to try to peace out a guestimate?
Speaker 2 (00:47):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (00:47):
I mean we've always had a granular view of forecasting inflation,
but it has gotten more granular given what's happening with tariffs,
and of course we're looking at the impact of commodities prices.
We have other idiosyncratic factors like what's happening with beef shortages.
So there are a lot of cross currents going on
in this inflation.
Speaker 3 (01:08):
It's the biggest weight or like everybody's sucking use cars.
Don't tell me use cars as a big weight, is it?
Speaker 2 (01:14):
It's not a big weight real estate. It's really important.
Speaker 4 (01:16):
And in fact, we're seeing new tenant rent in the
New Tenant Rent Index starting to rise. We're seeing people
preferring to rent rather than own, so new households that
are forming are renting, and that's pushing up rental prices
in the New Tenant Rent Index. We're going to see
that feed through to all the components of the CPI
in the coming months.
Speaker 5 (01:36):
If inflation is creeping up, that's kind of a tough
environment for the FED to cut rates, isn't it.
Speaker 4 (01:43):
I mean, creeping or shooting is Both of them are tough, right,
But I think what makes it especially tough, right is
that services inflation is elevated and sticky. It came down
and then it sort of stalled out. Meanwhile, goods prices
were close to flat or zero. That's not the case.
Goods prices are rising at zero point seven percent a
(02:03):
month over month. They're thirty five percent of the index,
and they're going to keep rising.
Speaker 2 (02:08):
And so if.
Speaker 4 (02:09):
Services prices continue to come down, even slowly, you're still
going to see that overall index increased.
Speaker 3 (02:15):
So what's your blooded number at EIU out twelve months?
Are you guys two ish three ish high three.
Speaker 2 (02:22):
This is a trick.
Speaker 4 (02:23):
This is a trick question time, because if we look
at the you want to look at what the FED
is going to look at, They're going to want to
look at the three month annualized rate.
Speaker 2 (02:31):
So we expect that to start.
Speaker 4 (02:33):
Moditoring in the end of Q two, beginning of Q
three next year, and we expect that to come down
to like a two point three two point one percent.
Speaker 3 (02:40):
Did you say next year next year? Three quarters out,
four quarters out?
Speaker 2 (02:45):
Yeah, Yeah, it's going to take some time.
Speaker 3 (02:47):
Are looking for results September seventeen.
Speaker 2 (02:49):
Oh if we.
Speaker 5 (02:51):
So, I mean again that that's inflation here. How about
kind of the labor market? I mean, that's another thing
that I think people feel comfortable with where kind of
we are here.
Speaker 6 (03:02):
But they say, well, if you look under the hood,
some of the trends there might be going the other
way here.
Speaker 4 (03:06):
Well, we've been concerned about the under the hood since
the start of the year, and it's the under the
hood that has made us have our call that we
think the FED is going to cut, and we think
they're going to cut in September. We think there's a
good chance they get in two more cuts before the
end of the year.
Speaker 2 (03:22):
Yep.
Speaker 3 (03:23):
Do you think the labor market is going to This
is like, I'm I got a textbook. I got Rick
Michigan's textbook at CLUBB. You pick a constant, you pick
the textbook. You're telling me they're going to cut interest
rates with a three point x percent inflation.
Speaker 4 (03:38):
Well, I'm going to chuse Stan Fisher as you you
talked about him earlier this morning.
Speaker 2 (03:43):
And here's the thing.
Speaker 4 (03:45):
We know that the tariff inflation impact is going to
be dare I say the word transitory. But the but
the issue is what is happening with that services inflation?
And there are compliments of service in this inflation, like
transfer in ortation where we're seeing falling demand.
Speaker 3 (04:02):
Uh.
Speaker 4 (04:03):
And the real question is how much can the consumer
take in terms of say auto inflation.
Speaker 3 (04:07):
We go to surveillance transitory correspondent Lisa Matteo. Right now,
how's that transitory inflation at Costco?
Speaker 6 (04:14):
Lisa, it's not doing so well?
Speaker 3 (04:16):
So well on a day to day constance hunter like
in consumption, I just don't see transitory.
Speaker 4 (04:23):
Well, it's well, it's present, But the question is is
it is it?
Speaker 2 (04:27):
Is it going to last for several years?
Speaker 4 (04:30):
It seems unlikely it will last for several years because
the economy is weakening under the hood.
Speaker 3 (04:37):
I got, I got a hate letter yesterday. Paul doesn't
know this. Folks, Lisa and Paul get the love notes.
Michael Byrn, I get all that hate mail constance. It
was a hate mail against you and all the others.
The audience detests when smart people like you say inflation
is a one off and after the lift and inflation
(04:58):
will all be okay.
Speaker 4 (04:59):
I didn't it will We'll be okay. A lot say well,
we'll be okay. It is a tax on the consumer.
It helps to push growth lower. It is painful for households.
It makes it harder for people to afford basic necessities.
Speaker 2 (05:13):
Let's let alone.
Speaker 4 (05:14):
Some of the nice to have that they want to
spend money on. It's very, very challenging.
Speaker 3 (05:19):
So you're saying the fetia cut even if we get
a rising inflation rate.
Speaker 4 (05:22):
The fetcha cut if we get a rising inflation rate
and continued confirmation the labor market is weaking, weakening. They
have to see that labor market weakening cut.
Speaker 3 (05:33):
I agree, it's back to the labor market.
Speaker 6 (05:34):
Poll retail sales on Friday, How do you care that
the consumer is doing.
Speaker 2 (05:39):
Out there, Well, it depends on what you're buying.
Speaker 4 (05:41):
But you're starting to see you're starting to see an
impact across the board. You're seeing actually a pullback and
in some of the revenge spending out of the pandemic.
Right there're still seemingly endless spending on things like leisure
and hospitality that is coming down.
Speaker 2 (05:58):
So we expect.
Speaker 4 (05:59):
Restaurants to solve, and a little bit. Home furnishings is weak. Obviously,
we have a really troubled and problematic housing market, so
we're not getting the lift from growth from a from
a growing housing market, so we're expecting home furnishings.
Speaker 2 (06:14):
To be soft.
Speaker 4 (06:15):
So we are we are looking for that softness under
the hood to come through. Now we have to point
out the juxtaposition here is everything that's happening in tech
and AI. We are seeing continuing to see a boom
in spending there and that's where you get the lift
in in capital investment.
Speaker 3 (06:32):
But the other investment out there, I mean, I mean
I thought of this earlier, folks, we didn't bring it
up on air. Let's do it business investment away from technology,
business investment. How do you characterize that grim.
Speaker 4 (06:47):
Yeah, it's zero, it's negative, negative, it's declining, declining, and
we think and we think that's going to continue. And
and our forecast at the beginning of the year sort
of cast us back to March when we were looking
at the rising level of uncertainty, was that this level
of uncertainty corresponds to business paralysis. We do not see
investment growing strongly when we have this level of uncertainty,
(07:11):
because businesses are like, I'll just just wait a quarter,
I'll wait till I get more clarity.
Speaker 2 (07:16):
Right, I'm not going to Why would I.
Speaker 4 (07:17):
Drive down the road at ninety miles an hour when
it's really foggy outside, I'll go forty five instead.
Speaker 6 (07:22):
Has that eased up a little bit in the last
couple of months as well?
Speaker 4 (07:24):
I recognize that, Well, it's eased up, but we're still
significantly above previous spikes and of course above previous stasis levels.
Speaker 3 (07:35):
So what's your number or in a headline, CPI, are
you on survey? Are you disinflating or increased inflation?
Speaker 4 (07:43):
Well, we're looking at zero point three percent month over
month and about two point eight on a year every year.
Speaker 3 (07:48):
Two point eight year every year that's sort of where
we are. Well. CPI month over month is zero point
two is a survey, So you're a tick above.
Speaker 2 (07:57):
I'm a tick above.
Speaker 3 (07:58):
Every little tick matters right well, and.
Speaker 2 (08:00):
It matters especially for that annualized rate.
Speaker 4 (08:02):
And it also matters where if people are feeling prices
go up in things that they purchase frequently, it takes
it psychologically. That takes a bigger bite out.
Speaker 3 (08:11):
So what we have here at Bloomberg, just to give
you a snapshot of is the constance one Hunter twelve
seconds to adjust to this. But what we have here
is the data that we all talk about in the media.
And then Michael McDonough and our team develop off the
Bureau of Labor Statistics a wonderfully colored chart which tells
(08:33):
a story. And I have core goods instantly here from
the report. It is zero point one point five to one.
I have no idea what that number means other than
constance hunter. I think I'm seeing a continuing trend of
core goods inflation.
Speaker 4 (08:50):
Ron yep, and we're seeing it in autos. So if
we look down in the detail, use cars and trucks
are now row zero point five percent month of a
month four point eight percent year over year. And like
I said, services is sticky, right, we have services less
energy services at zero point four percent month over month,
three point six percent year over year. And with those
(09:11):
sticky services, I will have to say it's going to
be challenging for the FED cut. We're going to have
to see really weak other data in the form of
jobs and retail sales.
Speaker 3 (09:20):
Should we say what the market's doing? Paul Sure? I
think we should five basis points in a lower yield
on a two year yield, the ten year yield and
three basis points the equity markets lived from flat up
to futures up twenty eight and the vicks in almost
to stick fifteen point four eight punk.
Speaker 7 (09:36):
Yeah.
Speaker 5 (09:36):
The three point one percent annual increase in the core
CPI takes that measure back to the height since February.
I'm looking at the Bloomberg Live top.
Speaker 3 (09:46):
Live can to list them there stand right on.
Speaker 6 (09:48):
Top of that, I mean the top like these blogs.
These guys are all over it.
Speaker 3 (09:51):
It's awesome now Chris and the entered team.
Speaker 7 (09:54):
Yeah, veryxy so.
Speaker 5 (09:54):
Wh sp fiatures up twenty four, Dow up one ninety,
and NASHTAC up one hundred and five points, it's four
tens to one percent.
Speaker 6 (10:01):
So certainly a move there constance.
Speaker 5 (10:04):
I mean, you know, it's calling into question that two
percent ish kind of target that the FED has for inflation,
whether it's core PCE or however you want to define it.
Is that a realistic goal these days in this economy.
Speaker 6 (10:18):
I just don't. A.
Speaker 5 (10:19):
I'm not sure whether they're fixated on the number. B.
I'm not sure how we get there.
Speaker 2 (10:23):
Well, should I answer the easier questions?
Speaker 7 (10:25):
First?
Speaker 4 (10:27):
The reason they're the reason that it's two percent is
because you need to have some inflation to grease the
wheels of growth, right, you don't you don't want to
tip into disinflation or deflation. On the other hand, you
don't want inflation to be a factor in businesses making
their decisions. And the problem with the level we have
now is it is a factor in businesses making their decisions,
(10:47):
and it's a factor in consumers making their decisions. And
so that's where it becomes really challenging for the FED.
On the other hand, we see this as attacks on
the economy. It in itself is going to slow growth
in addition to the slowness that we see under the hood,
and so It really just depends on the timing of
(11:08):
how quickly the labor market deteriorates and whether or not
the FED has space to act.
Speaker 5 (11:14):
Yeah, just an extraordinary here so again kind of the CPI, Right, Yeah,
I gave you your point two percent, Tom, I kind
of spot on line. I mean that core that ex
food and energy you're on your one percent is kind
of getting some play, folks.
Speaker 3 (11:28):
Here's here's the core CPI three monthly annualized is published
by bl S. This is from April two point one.
It went down to one point seven, it went up
to two point four, and now the three month annualized
is up to two point eight. Every textbook I have,
Constance Hunder tells me it's really hard to cut rates
(11:53):
given a three month trend of the three month annualized statistic.
Speaker 4 (11:58):
Right, And if you look at the Fed's work on this,
going back to the previous time that we raised traffs
admittedly by substantially less, right, it was that they should
look through this. Now the question is does a larger
teriff rate warrant the same look through. I think the
FED has telegraphed to us that they think it doesn't,
(12:18):
But does it.
Speaker 2 (12:19):
Warrant zero look through that also.
Speaker 4 (12:21):
They have they have seem to have telegraphed that they
think it doesn't warrant zero look through. If you look
at the dot plot, if you look at some of
the things that different FED governors have been saying, whether
it's Mary Daily, whether it's Neil Kashkari, right, Fed governors
that FED presidents have been saying, look, we see weakening
under the hood. And remember the FED funds, tart run
(12:42):
funds right right now is restrictive? Does it need to
be this restrictive? If they were to cut twice, it's
still restrictive.
Speaker 3 (12:49):
And this this headline here from Mark Niquet, Thank you
Mark for this. Just it's amazing. Our Bloomberg team gets
us out us core CPI picks up fastest pay since
January on services. Constance Hunter, thank you so much. Just
brilliant with the EIU. This morning, Rebecca Patterson said time
you really need to wear makeup? And I said no,
(13:10):
All our handlers are saying YouTube is We're makeup free
on YouTube at least I am, So we'll go with that.
Joining us now is Rebecca Patterson with a Council on
Foreign Relations and all over our service to best of
our trust JP Morgan and of course Bridgewater over the years. Rebecca,
this is the oddest place to be. I'm looking for
(13:31):
the revisions. I guess if I don't trust BLS, I
guess I trust the data. I don't have revisions yet
up on the screen. Let's just start with that. Okay,
the unemployment, right, there's an uproar. We got a new
guy in a hugely controversial Does Rebecca Patterson trust the
inflation statistics? Yes, that's where you gotta talk more, Lisa,
(13:55):
tellers talk more over.
Speaker 8 (13:56):
No, I mean, the United States has the best government
data in the world by a lot, and there are
dedicated civil servants who literally go around the country checking
prices in every community, of every variable and making sure
the data is as clean and reflective of what's really
(14:17):
happening as they can.
Speaker 3 (14:18):
My textbooks say, you got to be nuts. You can
cut rates given a two ish three ish three month
annualize inflation. Do you see any sense of transitory in
these statistics.
Speaker 8 (14:29):
I think we're in a new regime for inflation. I
think we're in a new regime for bond yields. So
if the economy slows a lot which Constant Constance was
talking about right before me. If the economy slows enough,
that's going to help pull inflation down. But that's not
a situation anyone wants, right. Usually you get deflation when
you have.
Speaker 3 (14:49):
A deep recession. We don't want that.
Speaker 8 (14:51):
But I think for the Federal Reserve, I was trying
to look at when is the last time we got
this rate cuts with inflation above target and the job
market softening? But okay, okay, nineteen ninety five. So at
the time they did three twenty five basis point insurance cuts,
inflation was running about two point three, so lower than where.
Speaker 3 (15:12):
We are now.
Speaker 8 (15:13):
The job market was okay, but the economy broadly was softening,
and so they said we're going to try to massage
this a little bit, and the stock market obviously loved it.
It was up about fifteen percent over the three cut
period the SMP, and I think that's probably what we're
going to get this time. I don't know if it's
one cut, two three. I lean towards less frankly because
(15:33):
of the inflation risk, and I think they'll they'll do
a cut in September. It's so priced in it would
be very difficult for the FED to argue against that,
but Jackson hole later this month. I believe it's August
twenty first, twenty third. That'll give us some more color,
I think on the sidelines of where they're leaning.
Speaker 5 (15:51):
Bloomberg Intelligence US rate strategist Are Jersey out with the
first take, saying, basically, the CPI print with the CPI
running at zero point two percent on the headline, suggests
that the pc print will allow the FED to ease
in September. So that's the first take from Ira Jersey here.
Speaker 6 (16:08):
What do you make?
Speaker 5 (16:09):
What did you make, Rebecca last week of the labor
data and then the president firing the BLS head and
all that kind of stuff, What did you make of
all that?
Speaker 8 (16:21):
I mean, is there an opportunity for the government to
modernize its data collection? Absolutely? But this is not easy,
right if you think about people do analysis of data
looking back ten twenty fifty in some organizations one hundred years.
If I suddenly change how I collect the data, I
have to make sure that new methodology doesn't screw up
(16:43):
how I look at the old data. Right, we don't
want apples and oranges. So it's actually a very difficult
process to make these changes, and you.
Speaker 6 (16:51):
Need resources to do that.
Speaker 8 (16:52):
The government has cut the budget for the BLS the
Bureau of Labor Statistics, so they have fewer resources, not
more to this modernization. But I do think they would
agree that this is the direction they should go. Try
to see what tools are out there they can use
to include in this process to make sure the data
is as relevant and reflective of the economy as possible.
(17:14):
Firing the head of the BLS I think was performative
and really a shame. I think at the margin, it's
one more small nail in the coffin of credibility of
US institutions.
Speaker 3 (17:24):
Mckey's going to be with a cerin a bit, but
let's start with you, Rebecca. My biggest problem with us.
You and I've talked about this before as we set up,
and I'm not going to blame ail in green Span.
I'm going to think it's going to come on behind
green Span. This idea that if we cut rates, once
we've established a new vector, a new trend of cutting rates,
why can't they come out, given the mess we're in,
(17:47):
whatever anybody's politics, and say we're going to do a
one off, twenty five beep cut. Why can't we do that.
Speaker 8 (17:56):
I think that's what they'll try to condition the market
towards that we felt there was room to make this
one insurance cut, and then we're going to continue to
be data dependent and see what's needed. The job data
is really tough. I was just looking before I came
in this morning. On one hand, you have the small
business sentiment survey this morning. Small business is a huge
(18:16):
part of the labor market. Confidence improved in July after
the big, beautiful fiscal stimulus bill was passed, but uncertainties high.
You get Challenger in Gray showing layoffs year on year
the oh sorry, year to date, the highest since twenty twenty.
But we know a lot of layoffs are very specific
federal government technology. So you can easily paint bullish and
(18:41):
not bullish, but okay pictures of the labor market and bearish,
and I feel like right now, depending on where you
sit in the FED, you can select data to have
a reasonable argument for your view.
Speaker 3 (18:53):
Are the separations in America? I mean, I think ludite
nineteenth century, I mean book where we are is a
nation and we're almost needing to prescribe rather two or
three FED policies. How can they do an aggregate FED policy, Paul,
to help the users of chat GBT exactly and perplexity
(19:17):
and people flat on their back and des moines, I
still get it.
Speaker 8 (19:21):
Think about Europe, right, you have a central bank governor
from Italy who's going to have a very different view
than the central bank governor from Are we.
Speaker 3 (19:28):
Different, brilliant, Are we any different on that?
Speaker 7 (19:31):
No, we're not.
Speaker 8 (19:31):
And that's part of the reason the FED was set
up the way it was to have a representative from
Kansas City and one from Texas and one from San Francisco,
so we represent the different economies within the US and
ideally they can debate and come up to an aggregate
view that's not perfect for any given region, but is
optimal for the economy. That's that's the goal, and that's
(19:52):
why they're set up that way, and honestly, I don't
know a better way to do it.
Speaker 6 (19:56):
A surprised at the stock market keeps seeing all time
hunts every day.
Speaker 8 (19:59):
No, it's oh concentrated in tech, and my perception is
that there is a lot of belief that in the
next whatever one to three years, we're going to break
into superintelligence and you're going to have a hockey stick
moment for those stocks, similar to what we saw after
GPT was launched two years ago, two and a half
years ago, and no one wants to miss that return.
(20:20):
So everyone's, as they say, holding on for dear life.
Speaker 3 (20:23):
Just so you know. This surveillance on August twelfth, the
break and super intelligence. It's surveillance is have your offspring
done their summer reading list? That's what we call super intelligence.
Right now, Lisa, how are we doing over there? I mean,
there's their second book, second book out of what eight?
Speaker 7 (20:39):
That's awesome.
Speaker 8 (20:42):
You're there, You're there, success, check the box.
Speaker 3 (20:45):
Kuse me, Rebecca. I got to switch here and apply
this economics and this inflation. The market's loving in futures.
I'm thirty three right now. Over to the oddity of
this market. You have handled really serious family high net
worth work at Bessemer just as one example, how do
(21:06):
you invest in this chaos? If you want to be measured,
want to be prudent, but must participate in the growth,
do you buy more? Nvidia is at the solution.
Speaker 8 (21:17):
No, I wouldn't hear at these levels, but if I
owned it, I also wouldn't be rushing to disinvest I
mean my approach has been for most of this year
to have be invested in equities, have a Barbelle approach,
so the tech sector, which is a structural theme despite
the valuations, but then to protect your downside with some
(21:38):
defensive sectors like utilities or consumer staples. And you know,
we've been talking about this for well over a year
as part of my diversifiers, to protect my downside. I
like gold, even with the tariff removed by President Trump
earlier this week, Gold's up twenty seven percent year to date,
more last year. And I think as long as the
(21:58):
world is uncertain and inflation and risks are to the upside,
that's going to be an asset that can benefit you.
Speaker 6 (22:05):
So evaluation here. You mentioned the concentration risk.
Speaker 5 (22:08):
Yeah, we haven't seen that really since the late nineties.
Now this is a different environment from the late nineties.
These companies have real earnings, real cash flow, but still
that concentration risk.
Speaker 6 (22:19):
It certainly makes me concerned.
Speaker 8 (22:21):
Yeah, I agree with that, and again that's part of
the reason I want to have this Barbell strategy. When
you talk to the CEOs of these large language models,
these megacap companies, megacap tech companies.
Speaker 2 (22:33):
They don't know.
Speaker 3 (22:34):
They don't know.
Speaker 8 (22:35):
How this story ends, and they'll admit that, and I
think they do publicly. So you're taking a risk with this.
You're counting on this inflection point moment for technology and
that over time it spreads through the economy. I think
looking for AI beneficiaries, not just the KEAI companies, is
a smart play. I think there's other thematics and they're
getting priced in, but I think they still have runway
(22:57):
things like infrastructure, things like global defense. Those are ways
that get an indirect play on AI, but at slightly
less crazy value. Not crazy crazy is the only word
to use high valuations.
Speaker 3 (23:09):
I got to call at Kansas City Fed today and
beg for a chair at the Pioneer Grill for breakfast.
Sounds good. I think it's on Friday when I'm there.
Are you going to be a checkson a hole?
Speaker 8 (23:19):
Sadly, I'm not.
Speaker 3 (23:20):
I'm going to Are you not going to be there?
Speaker 8 (23:22):
Because I'm also a mom and I'm going to make
sure my daughter is set up for a great school year?
Speaker 6 (23:27):
There you go, fun, It is time the.
Speaker 3 (23:30):
Door you do a dorm room like with the TV
in the Nine Yards. No, no, no, No, this was
a major debate a couple of nights ago. We're not
doing this. I don't judge.
Speaker 8 (23:40):
If someone wants to deck out their kids dorm Lisa,
help have fun, but no, I'm more of a I'm
going to get you there, make sure you have the
basics you need. Thank you, you're a grown up. You
can do this, go for it.
Speaker 3 (23:51):
Yeah, but my kids are perfectly Some of these kids
go to school today and it's like moving a house.
Speaker 9 (23:57):
There's a thing as a bed party.
Speaker 2 (23:59):
You have a bed party so.
Speaker 9 (24:01):
That the kids come to the house and they decorate
your child's bed in all the whole you know, merchandise
of the school.
Speaker 2 (24:08):
It's a thing now.
Speaker 8 (24:09):
I mean, God bless America.
Speaker 3 (24:11):
I guess we are.
Speaker 8 (24:12):
I mean there's a reason sixty eight percent of GDP
is consumption because people can be convinced they quote unquote
need to spend on this. And again, no judgment. If
they want, if that's how they want to spend their money, fine,
as long as they can afford it, As long as
these people are financially literate.
Speaker 3 (24:25):
I talked to McKeith, tough it out, tell your daughter,
kick her out the door. We'll see in JACKSONA Rebecca Patterson,
thank you so much with the counsul on Ford relations,
some important essays recently in the media. Just brilliant. There.
Speaker 1 (24:45):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch US Live
weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on
Applecarplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app, or
watch US Live on YouTube.
Speaker 3 (24:57):
Joining us now for Bloomberg Intelligence and fixing Irid Jersey
as well. Ira. As you set up to write to
the end of the week, are you looking at bills, notes,
bonds or are you looking even more short term than that?
Speaker 10 (25:11):
Well, actually medium term, but we're looking at we're looking
at real yields and what tips are doing and what
they're suggesting for inflation going forward, because obviously the market
and how it prices for inflation going forward is going
to be one of the determinants that the Federal Reserve
is going to use for determining whether or not, right
it's close enough to its target of two percent to
(25:33):
cut rates maybe as early as September.
Speaker 3 (25:36):
Okay, but I'm seeing in a real yield, Am I right?
The real yield as a general statements within range has
it broken out up or down?
Speaker 10 (25:44):
Yeah, it's been in this range for the better part
of this year. You know, call it on the tenure
about one and a half percent to two percent, and
you know we're towards the top of that right now.
And I suspect that over time as the Federal Reserve
cuts interest rates. Whether or not that's warranted is one thing,
but you will see probably really yields move a little
(26:05):
bit lower, but it will be move lower in a
what we call a bull steepening. So you'll see short
term like five year and two year tips yields probably
fall much more quickly than ten yure yields because the
longer term real yields are affected not only by monetary policy,
but also by expectations of supply. Right, what is the
(26:27):
deficit going to be at? And you know, so far
we haven't seriously addressed deficits, and we're still going to
have two trillion dollars more of treasuries a year from
now than we have today, and that's going to continue
to prop up long term real yields.
Speaker 5 (26:40):
Neil dudd It just out with a note from Renaissance Macro.
He says, you know, for the Fed July CPI data
lately cements a September rate cut. You think that's how
the market's interpreting IRA.
Speaker 10 (26:52):
Yeah, so the market's almost fully priced for a September
rate cut. What's interesting is that we're priced now for
a September rate cut and a December rate cut. My
feeling is is that once the Fed starts to move,
they're going to move and keep going. They're not going
to skip a meeting just at random. So I think
that if they do cut in September, they'll also go
in October and then December. Now will they go more
(27:14):
than say, another you know, four cuts and cut one
hundred basis points or will they cut more than that?
Still an open question. I suspect that ultimately they will
cut to below three percent. So you're talking about one
hundred and fifty basis points one hundred and seventy five
basis points of rate cuts this cycle. Well, keep in mind, Tom,
like you know, the way that they're thinking about this. Look,
inflation right now is two and a half percent. FED
(27:37):
funds is over four percent, So that means you have
a one and a half percent or more than one
and a half percent a real funds rate so to
get the neutral under be kind of there a simplistic
view of the world, they should could be able to
cut one hundred and seventy five base points and just
be at neutral as opposed to being at.
Speaker 3 (27:57):
Then why why well cut? Yeah?
Speaker 10 (28:03):
I think they haven't cut because they are worried about inflation, right,
They're worried about another another spike of inflation, and seeing
with with all the tariffs and the like, they are
concerned about about that. And also until recently, remember the
job market seemed to be holding up reasonably well and
even the wages continue to grow close to four percent.
When you have when you have job growth that is
(28:26):
barely at the replacement rate, there is a concern that
the job market might be the catalyst during this cycle
to actually slow the economy a lot more. And the
you know, the Federal Reserve does have a dual mandate.
And if we get another really weak data print for
the job market in September, you know, that opens up
the side open for the market to price in a
(28:49):
lot more cuts.
Speaker 3 (28:50):
And that's where I'm looking at the labor economy more
than the inflation focus is the focus to your Avery Jersey,
thank you so much. With Bloomberg Intelligence.
Speaker 1 (29:00):
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto
with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live
on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just
say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 3 (29:17):
This conversation is so timely, so important. We're going to
place it before CPI right now. As you know, the
President and mister Putin will meet in Alaska. Site unknown
and Marie Horden are reporting on that each and every day,
and Ukraine is on the periphery. Kira Rudik is of
the Ukraine Parliament, serving as a People's Deputy of Ukraine
(29:40):
and from the Holos party, and we're thrilled she could
brief us this morning. Kira, all of Ukraine must be
riveted on this debate. What is Ukraine's best outcome for
this Friday meeting?
Speaker 11 (29:55):
Hello, and thank you so much for having me. Well,
the best outcome would be that President Trump wouldn't take
yet another public humidiation from Russian President put In, and
that he will get finally annoyed and will impose sanctions
that he has promised and tariffs on everybody who is
buying something from Russia and will go ahead on continuing
(30:17):
pressuring Russia. The best outcome would be for President Trump
to realize yet again that it's not Ukraine that is
on the way of the peace coming. And well, you
to judge if it's realistic, but this will be the
best outcome that we can hope for.
Speaker 3 (30:37):
Should Ukraine give up territory, acreage land?
Speaker 11 (30:42):
The main question here, because you know everybody's asking should
Ukraine give up territories? The main question is for what?
And the second question is who or what will make
sure that in this case Russia would not attack us again,
Because asking Ukraine about territories is a simple question, Asking
(31:02):
who will make sure that Trashia will keep the part
of the bargain, whatever that bargain is, is a complicated question.
And we didn't hear any single world leader trying to
figure out that or at least hint him of how
it will work. Because we have been in so called
ceasefires with Russia since twenty thirteen dozens of times and
(31:23):
it never worked and there was nobody to complain to,
So how this time will be different? President Trump was
talking about swapping of the territories. How do you make
sure if even if we talk about swapping territories the
Trausia wouldn't take them back in like one or two.
Speaker 5 (31:40):
Years, Kira, For those in your country that advocate for peace,
what is that kind of based upon? What would be
an acceptable reasonable peace negotiation form? Do you think.
Speaker 11 (31:56):
Again, like when we are talking about peace, of course
people here on the ground they want peace, and we
are all exhausted.
Speaker 7 (32:03):
Of the war.
Speaker 11 (32:04):
But we also know again that whatever you agree with Russia,
it's very hard, almost impossible to make them stick to it.
So whatever talks are about heritories, about any agreements, the
first thing is how do you President Trump or European
leaders or whoever, how do you pressure Russia to keep
(32:26):
the part of the bargain. And before that, anything else
is useless to discuss because if the security guarantees are
not there, Russia will just use this time to group
and they will attack us again in a couple of years.
This is what happened again and again to us.
Speaker 3 (32:42):
This unique situation. And if we assume mister Zelenski is
on the outside, what do you need from Europe? Are
you looking the individual nations, Heiro rudic Or you're looking
to Brussels of a modern European Union.
Speaker 11 (33:01):
What worked for us in the past is working with
the individual nations. So we didn't get like certain amount
of weapons from NATO as it is, but from countries
like Britain, like Denmark, like Norway, like Germany, France. So
it works the best when we are working with the
individual nations. And the overall truth is we want everyone
(33:26):
just to execute on the promises that they have already made.
If that was done, we will already be in the
better positions. Unfortunately, times go differently in Ukraine when you
are under the bombardment and in peaceful cities of Europe
that are able to stay peaceful while we are stopping
Russia from whatever wherever they want to go next. And
(33:47):
so sometimes between the political promise and the moment when
Ukrainian soldiers getting weapons in his or her hands, it
could be years and this is not something that we
can afford.
Speaker 3 (33:57):
Right now, when you're in New York again, we would
be honored to have you in. Kier Rudik is a
member of Parliament for the Ukraine for Ukrainian Government. I
should say she's the People's Deputy of Ukraine, leader of
the holiest Party.
Speaker 1 (34:17):
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
starting at seven am Eastern on Apple, Corplay and Android
Otto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch
us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the
Bloomberg Terminal.
Speaker 3 (34:31):
Juvensteinis and the rest of the elite of the United
Kingdom have lived it. I'm going to say two years
ago they had a modest pension issue where they basically
had a marketing concept around pensions, which blew up. I mean,
just let's cut. Let's just leave it at that because
of time. He Peu von steinas with Oliver Wyman, just
(34:53):
wrote an essay. You know, Tracy Eloway and Joe Wis
them roars. He wrote it. You know he's the kill
and you wrote an essay for ad lites. The next
big thing in private credit? Come on, Hewett. Reminds me
of what you people lived in the Liz Trust. Blow
up your pension system? Do we really want bitcoin or directly,
(35:16):
do we want private credit in our four or one k?
Speaker 2 (35:20):
Well?
Speaker 12 (35:20):
Thanks for having me back on, Tom Well. The first
lesson I learned is never to I don't own the title,
the headline and the rock stars to use the title. Look,
I think that if you look at a retirement savings
around the world. You know, in the States a defined
benefit scheme has about twenty three percent in real estate
fixing come private equity Australia twenty to thirty points. But
(35:41):
for US retirees it's close to zero. It's actually about
two percent. And so I think giving investors more opportunities
to save and also manage their retirement is responsible. How
it's done. You know, there's a lot of innovation which
needs to be done. But literally give you one statistic.
About three and a half trillion are in target date funds.
Sixty eight percent of all inflows go into target light funds.
(36:02):
Do you know how many people switch every year? Just
one percent? It means it's the stickiest investment product on
the planet. And therefore, to say you have to invest
all of that in daily liquidity funds feels too tight. Okay,
what's the right amount?
Speaker 7 (36:15):
That's a debate.
Speaker 3 (36:16):
Let me get the line up here. Are you telling
me that Lisa Mateo in or two or John Tucker
in his two oh one K John Tucker goes into
private credit, he's going to get the quality the three
phone calls from Blackstone's going to get. I just don't
buy it. I mean, how do we know that we're
going to have quality private credit in a reserve vehicle.
Speaker 12 (36:37):
Look, I think it's a great question. So I think
you've got a couple of layers to this. So the
first is there's a whole bunch of fiduciaries who run
these systems. So there's investment consultants, there's planned sponsors. And
I think also these assets are not going to just
be thrown into a portfolio. They're going to be probably
in an evergreen fund, so in a thoughtfully managed, professionally
(36:57):
managed building block. So I think point one is there's
at least three layers of fiduciaries which are going to
be overseeing this. I think two is then thinking about
what is the right risk return. And obviously some large
institutional investors can take much more risk because they've got
pots of money and long duration. I think obviously here
it's going to be building blocks. But I think in
an environment where more and more loans are being done
(37:19):
outside of the banking system, I think it's fair enough
that that investors can invest in more credit, And I
think the key point, which we've discussed before, is the
difference between a five year public bond and a five
year private credit. It's a grey scale now, both are
quite a liquid, both have got characteristics. So I think
it's no longer black and white in this market.
Speaker 5 (37:38):
We haven't seen private credit experience a significant prolonged economic downturn,
have we. We don't know how it's going to perform
in a capitalic constrained environment. What's the what's the thinking there?
Speaker 7 (37:50):
Look, it's a great question.
Speaker 12 (37:52):
So I mean, one way I think about it is
that as the as the universe of what's in private
credit spans, it's going to drift towards what we've learned
from the banks of the lot twenty or thirty years,
because effectively these are bank loans which are being put
into private structures. There was a FED study about two
years ago, so it's a bit dated now, which showed
that the loss the probability of default was about a
(38:13):
third lower for the private credit loans at that stage.
Probably bit of cherry picking, but then the loss given
default so when it goes wrong, what you reclaim was
a bit worse, but net net, so far it's been
it has been better.
Speaker 7 (38:24):
But you're right.
Speaker 12 (38:25):
As the industry scales, there'll be good decisions and bad
decisions and so naturally returns will.
Speaker 3 (38:30):
Probably cold down the market.
Speaker 12 (38:32):
Look, this is this is one of the ask this
is one of the really critical questions. So the moment
they're marked probably every quarter, every quarter, every quarter, Oh,
come on, and that's note. So what we argue in
that piece for the rock stars was that the pricing
conventions will need to evolve so they're done at least
on a monthly basis.
Speaker 3 (38:52):
Say, is this a new thing or Colm Tracy and
Joe rock stars? Yeah, is that like a new thing?
That's a mandate? Okay, continue the rock starts so every
ninety days in no way.
Speaker 7 (39:04):
So that's why.
Speaker 12 (39:05):
But this so as you move from money being managed
for institutional investors and coming into wealth, there's a number
of things which will have to change, and obviously around
that ecosystem for a better word, you know, pricing will
change the structures. You know, there's a lot of work
which is being done and people.
Speaker 3 (39:23):
Are going to have a limitation and how much they
can have in private creditor for that matter been done.
Speaker 12 (39:28):
So if we think about in the retirement system. Look,
we've only just had the executive order last week, so
there's a lot of work still to be done. But
it's like rewirement, right, So going back to it, there's
at least three layers of fiduciaries. I think the fiduciaries
will have you know, will want to pilot, they want
to experiment, they want to go slowly. Give you an
example in the Australian system. Let's take the Australian super Fund.
(39:50):
It's the biggest funds in Australia. They have twenty three
points in private assets. They really two percent in private
credit because they're trying to listen, learn and ex experiment.
So this is not a this is not a torrent.
This is going to be something which will take a
good sh.
Speaker 3 (40:04):
Australia has twenty three plus two twenty five basis points
in alternative.
Speaker 12 (40:09):
Twenty three twenty three points not basis points points, So
twenty three percent of the Australian super Fund which.
Speaker 3 (40:16):
Is alternative investments.
Speaker 7 (40:18):
Yeah, now that's across really stay of equity.
Speaker 5 (40:20):
In the Veronicas, Tom, you know the Veronicas, we do
a lot of work with registered investment advisors here at
Bloomberg and Alex Steel and I did a bunch of
remotes with them, and I was shocked at the amount
that an average registered investment advisor, a retail advisor in
any town USA has an allocation to private alternatives.
Speaker 7 (40:42):
I thought it would have been.
Speaker 5 (40:42):
Five percent, six percent. No, it's twenty twenty five percent.
That's just amazing. But I'm guessing not a lot of
that is in private credit.
Speaker 7 (40:51):
At the moment. It'd be not that much.
Speaker 12 (40:53):
Although actually, you know interesting if you look at these
sort of private credit funds for wealthy that's called called
evergreen funds, they're not only for a wealthy of they
can be for institutions YEA. To date, they're growing about
sixty percent compound probably makes it the fastest growing part
of the investment ecosystem. So it's growing, it's growing.
Speaker 3 (41:12):
Keevan Steina's with this area are commercial free until nine am.
We welcome all of you across at the nation. Good
morning across the United Kingdom as well. Mister van Stinez
is with Oliver Wyman, run YouTube. Subscribe to Bloomberg Podcasts
a live Chad effervescent this morning to say at least read,
agree to the screen extremely quiet tape here nineteen minutes
(41:34):
away from the CPI.
Speaker 7 (41:36):
Paul with you please, I mean, I'm shocked, Hugh.
Speaker 5 (41:39):
I want to what your view is. Why are the
banks allowing this business to go away? From the private
credit business. I started my career at the Chase Manhattan
bank leverage lending to the media sector. You know, we
make money upfront, and we did the deal we did
lve Woark plus three, we sold off. We syndicated all
of our risk off the balance the solid to banks
(42:01):
all around the country so we had no balance sheet risk,
and then the next day we turn around to do
it all again. That was a great business. We made
a fortunes. Why am I letting that business go to
some of these private credit guys?
Speaker 7 (42:12):
Look, Paul, I think it's a great question.
Speaker 12 (42:13):
I think actually the wins are slightly changing on this,
partly with the deregulation but stronger banks. But let's face it,
post the Financial crisis, there was a whole reregulation of banks,
particularly in twenty twelve the FED told the US banks
not to own as many leverage loans, and then from
that there was a decade into the pandemic where private
credit grew a trillion dollar parallel system in the US,
(42:35):
and now as we come to today, then we obviously
twenty three you know, with the interest rate shot banks
from the back foot, they also were cautious. Today the
leading banks are now much back on the front foot.
And if you look at the leverage lending space, many
of the banks have tried to refinance the private credit
loans and lift them to try and argue them back.
But you know, there's also some structural areas where many
(42:56):
of the private credit firms, being entrepreneurial, are now looking
for fresher pastures. So they're looking into equipment leasing, aircraft leasing.
Well thanks just got out of aircraft leasing, you know
years ago, data center financing again, that's moving increasingly towards
the private credit. So look, I think everything has a cycle,
and I think the private smarter private credit funds are
looking for fresh, fresh loans.
Speaker 3 (43:17):
Okay, I mean everybody wants in on this. I get it.
And it's an umpteen trillion dollar fronk plan. What are
you worried about, Hugh Vanstein, is what's the you know,
paragraph three, page twelve of the red hearing ages ago,
what's the risk factors here?
Speaker 12 (43:32):
Look, I think there's there's a there's a number of things.
So as you move towards the wealthy in retail, I think,
as you said, Tom, we need to get the pricing conventions,
the right structures, the right cash flows. There's a whole
bunch of stuff around the engineering of the of the plumbing.
And look at what we've learned in finance is often
it's the plumbing which actually creates the problem rather than
(43:54):
actually just the assets something.
Speaker 3 (43:55):
So tranches, folks, are not a trench, a trunch. Tranches
are high quality pieces of whatever it is down to
a lesser quality. We learned in seven that the quality
tranch is moving was a really ugly mover for institutional money.
Is private credit going to be trenched out? So you
(44:16):
know in your four oh and K the level of
risk of private credit you're going to have in your portfolio.
Speaker 12 (44:22):
So this is a that this is something that I expect.
I think the ratings agencies are all over this space.
They see a new business in trying to rate a
much larger amount of the private credit space too. And look, Tom,
I think we need to be careful here between the
risky stuff, the non investment grade and the ig that
you know what tripped us up in the financial crisis
(44:43):
was buying an awful lot of the stuff that people
thought was low risk. Actually the non investment grade by definition,
you know it's risky, so you don't pile it on.
Speaker 3 (44:51):
We got to do a joint interview with Hugh von
Steinas and Mark Kearney. Well, Curry is a little occupied something,
so I think thank Yousina's working with the Bank of
Them a bit ago.
Speaker 1 (45:01):
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
starting at seven am Eastern on Apple, Corclay and Android
Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen
live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,
Just say Alexa, play Bloomberg.
Speaker 2 (45:17):
Eleven thirty were.
Speaker 3 (45:18):
The Newspaper's Lisa Matteo.
Speaker 9 (45:20):
Okay, Tom, I thought you would get a kick out
of the story because I know you love the dreaded
Yankees as you call them. They have the star studded roster, right,
the three hundred million dollar payroll. But the question and
every fan's mind is what the heck is going on?
Speaker 6 (45:32):
Right?
Speaker 2 (45:32):
Why is the team not showing up?
Speaker 9 (45:34):
They came out of the weekend barely clinging to the
half game lead over the Cleveland Guardians to get that
final Al wild card spot. So the Wall Street Journal
kind of puts the spotlight on the ownership and points
to hal Steinbrenner, who took over the family business like
seventeen years ago, a different managerial philosophy than his father did.
They said that house a little bit loyal. You know,
(45:56):
he doesn't scream and do all that kind of stuff.
But the question there is when does he step in?
Like the Yankees are struggling right We know that pitching
has been an issue. They haven't won a title since
two thousand and nine. I still have the T shirt,
but little has changed. So that is the question when
are things going to start to They're.
Speaker 6 (46:15):
In the playoffs pretty much every year.
Speaker 5 (46:17):
They were the World Series last year, but Yankee expectations
are uniquely higher than everybody else in the sports. It's
when the World Series orts a it's a bad year.
Speaker 3 (46:30):
Can we note even though we lost last night, the
ace for the Red Sox is pitching. The ace for
the Yankees has been out all year.
Speaker 7 (46:39):
Yeah, that's that's a big deal.
Speaker 3 (46:41):
That's key.
Speaker 6 (46:41):
That's a big deal.
Speaker 5 (46:42):
And so we started the airplane just fantastic, But the
last fifty games have been terrible, so we'll see if
they can turn it around.
Speaker 3 (46:50):
But they've got time to turn it around.
Speaker 6 (46:52):
You have time with a wild card, I mean exactly.
Speaker 3 (46:55):
You know, I think the Chicago White Sox are reaching
for the worst right now. You're still in it.
Speaker 9 (47:00):
Next, okay, we'll take you over to the labor market.
Speaker 6 (47:04):
This is interesting.
Speaker 9 (47:05):
The Wall Street Journal is saying the era of those
big pay raises for low paid workers could be over,
or at.
Speaker 2 (47:10):
Least maybe taking a pause.
Speaker 9 (47:12):
It's it's a different site before, you know, the year
right before the pandemic and then right after the pandemic
where we saw the opposite of it. You know, it
pointed to the July jobs report which kind of compared
you know, leisure and hospitality workers, you know, a three
point five percent increase from a year earlier, and then
you had the information sector that was up about five
point four percent. But what it really does, it's a
(47:32):
good look into the history of the wage gap and
how that has fluctuated over the past few years. So
I just thought this was a good one to point
out because you know, it's a good look back into.
Speaker 6 (47:41):
The history of it.
Speaker 5 (47:42):
And how college Sun's got a summer job. I'm shocked
that it was getting paid per hour.
Speaker 6 (47:46):
I mean it's like a real paycheck. I'm like, dude,
what do you can do with all this cash?
Speaker 3 (47:49):
Like, what's there? Lisa, let's stop to show your folks.
Lisa and Tom Keane asking Paul, how do your children
are all gods? They're all employed?
Speaker 6 (47:59):
Not hu, she cut him off. But it depends on
the sector.
Speaker 9 (48:03):
Like my nephew just got a job. He's still in college,
but they guaranteed him a job making six figures before
he's even graduated.
Speaker 5 (48:11):
Yeah, I think just for the like the you know,
the hourly worker.
Speaker 6 (48:16):
Amazon is the market.
Speaker 7 (48:17):
I mean, it's not the.
Speaker 6 (48:18):
Federal governor, the market government market center.
Speaker 3 (48:21):
Absolutely.
Speaker 6 (48:22):
I mean, because they employed so many people and they're
paying up and that's you have to match it.
Speaker 3 (48:27):
So anyway, thank you.
Speaker 9 (48:28):
Okay, swifties waking up to a real treat.
Speaker 2 (48:31):
Did you know it was.
Speaker 9 (48:32):
A surprise album drop from Taylor Swift It is the
Life of a show Girl, and she revealed it on
her boyfriend Travis Kelsey's new Heights poss Still Together. They're
still together. This was the announcement on Access. She pulled
out a vinyl record from a briefcase.
Speaker 2 (48:46):
Take a lesson mc green.
Speaker 3 (48:49):
Yep, this is my brand new album, The Life of
a Showgirl.
Speaker 8 (48:56):
If that is it?
Speaker 7 (48:57):
Okay?
Speaker 9 (48:58):
So the videos posted at twelve twelve New York Time
on the twelfth, her twelfth studio.
Speaker 6 (49:02):
Album, You Get I Get It.
Speaker 2 (49:04):
Okay, see the theme.
Speaker 9 (49:05):
Okay. It comes after her eleventh album. The official release
date it hasn't been announced yet, but pre.
Speaker 2 (49:10):
Orders now available.
Speaker 6 (49:12):
So that was the whole thing together. I mean they're
in an age.
Speaker 2 (49:17):
Yeah, she's still going strong.
Speaker 9 (49:21):
They are, they are, but if these are are rejoicing
this morning.
Speaker 5 (49:25):
But she just got off like a monster tour. That
was a couple of years, right, yes, yes.
Speaker 9 (49:29):
Yes, so now so now comes the next album.
Speaker 3 (49:31):
All right, this is just you know, out of COVID.
I mean, I mean, she invented the self help record
in COVID, No kidding, those quiet records.
Speaker 9 (49:41):
Jack in a big fight against him.
Speaker 3 (49:43):
Yeah, you know it is Shrewd the right wok.
Speaker 7 (49:46):
Yeah, totally.
Speaker 3 (49:46):
Yeah, she's like a big time Shrewd and she's killing it.
Lisa Matteo, thank you so much.
Speaker 1 (49:52):
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple Spotify,
and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday,
seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, the
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(50:13):
always on the Bloomberg terminal
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Speaker 2 (00:12):
This is the.
Speaker 1 (00:13):
Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am
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Speaker 3 (00:27):
Concerts Center here at Chief Economists yeaws to get us
to the report, Rebecca Patterson's scheduled after its commercial free
across the nation in this hour cons there's no whisper number.
How do you guess the inflation report? If there's so
many subsets, do you have to go down to each
subset to try to peace out a guestimate?
Speaker 2 (00:47):
Yeah.
Speaker 4 (00:47):
I mean we've always had a granular view of forecasting inflation,
but it has gotten more granular given what's happening with tariffs,
and of course we're looking at the impact of commodities prices.
We have other idiosyncratic factors like what's happening with beef shortages.
So there are a lot of cross currents going on
in this inflation.
Speaker 3 (01:08):
It's the biggest weight or like everybody's sucking use cars.
Don't tell me use cars as a big weight, is it?
Speaker 2 (01:14):
It's not a big weight real estate. It's really important.
Speaker 4 (01:16):
And in fact, we're seeing new tenant rent in the
New Tenant Rent Index starting to rise. We're seeing people
preferring to rent rather than own, so new households that
are forming are renting, and that's pushing up rental prices
in the New Tenant Rent Index. We're going to see
that feed through to all the components of the CPI
in the coming months.
Speaker 5 (01:36):
If inflation is creeping up, that's kind of a tough
environment for the FED to cut rates, isn't it.
Speaker 4 (01:43):
I mean, creeping or shooting is Both of them are tough, right,
But I think what makes it especially tough, right is
that services inflation is elevated and sticky. It came down
and then it sort of stalled out. Meanwhile, goods prices
were close to flat or zero. That's not the case.
Goods prices are rising at zero point seven percent a
(02:03):
month over month. They're thirty five percent of the index,
and they're going to keep rising.
Speaker 2 (02:08):
And so if.
Speaker 4 (02:09):
Services prices continue to come down, even slowly, you're still
going to see that overall index increased.
Speaker 3 (02:15):
So what's your blooded number at EIU out twelve months?
Are you guys two ish three ish high three.
Speaker 2 (02:22):
This is a trick.
Speaker 4 (02:23):
This is a trick question time, because if we look
at the you want to look at what the FED
is going to look at, They're going to want to
look at the three month annualized rate.
Speaker 2 (02:31):
So we expect that to start.
Speaker 4 (02:33):
Moditoring in the end of Q two, beginning of Q
three next year, and we expect that to come down
to like a two point three two point one percent.
Speaker 3 (02:40):
Did you say next year next year? Three quarters out,
four quarters out?
Speaker 2 (02:45):
Yeah, Yeah, it's going to take some time.
Speaker 3 (02:47):
Are looking for results September seventeen.
Speaker 2 (02:49):
Oh if we.
Speaker 5 (02:51):
So, I mean again that that's inflation here. How about
kind of the labor market? I mean, that's another thing
that I think people feel comfortable with where kind of
we are here.
Speaker 6 (03:02):
But they say, well, if you look under the hood,
some of the trends there might be going the other
way here.
Speaker 4 (03:06):
Well, we've been concerned about the under the hood since
the start of the year, and it's the under the
hood that has made us have our call that we
think the FED is going to cut, and we think
they're going to cut in September. We think there's a
good chance they get in two more cuts before the
end of the year.
Speaker 2 (03:22):
Yep.
Speaker 3 (03:23):
Do you think the labor market is going to This
is like, I'm I got a textbook. I got Rick
Michigan's textbook at CLUBB. You pick a constant, you pick
the textbook. You're telling me they're going to cut interest
rates with a three point x percent inflation.
Speaker 4 (03:38):
Well, I'm going to chuse Stan Fisher as you you
talked about him earlier this morning.
Speaker 2 (03:43):
And here's the thing.
Speaker 4 (03:45):
We know that the tariff inflation impact is going to
be dare I say the word transitory. But the but
the issue is what is happening with that services inflation?
And there are compliments of service in this inflation, like
transfer in ortation where we're seeing falling demand.
Speaker 3 (04:02):
Uh.
Speaker 4 (04:03):
And the real question is how much can the consumer
take in terms of say auto inflation.
Speaker 3 (04:07):
We go to surveillance transitory correspondent Lisa Matteo. Right now,
how's that transitory inflation at Costco?
Speaker 6 (04:14):
Lisa, it's not doing so well?
Speaker 3 (04:16):
So well on a day to day constance hunter like
in consumption, I just don't see transitory.
Speaker 4 (04:23):
Well, it's well, it's present, But the question is is
it is it?
Speaker 2 (04:27):
Is it going to last for several years?
Speaker 4 (04:30):
It seems unlikely it will last for several years because
the economy is weakening under the hood.
Speaker 3 (04:37):
I got, I got a hate letter yesterday. Paul doesn't
know this. Folks, Lisa and Paul get the love notes.
Michael Byrn, I get all that hate mail constance. It
was a hate mail against you and all the others.
The audience detests when smart people like you say inflation
is a one off and after the lift and inflation
(04:58):
will all be okay.
Speaker 4 (04:59):
I didn't it will We'll be okay. A lot say well,
we'll be okay. It is a tax on the consumer.
It helps to push growth lower. It is painful for households.
It makes it harder for people to afford basic necessities.
Speaker 2 (05:13):
Let's let alone.
Speaker 4 (05:14):
Some of the nice to have that they want to
spend money on. It's very, very challenging.
Speaker 3 (05:19):
So you're saying the fetia cut even if we get
a rising inflation rate.
Speaker 4 (05:22):
The fetcha cut if we get a rising inflation rate
and continued confirmation the labor market is weaking, weakening. They
have to see that labor market weakening cut.
Speaker 3 (05:33):
I agree, it's back to the labor market.
Speaker 6 (05:34):
Poll retail sales on Friday, How do you care that
the consumer is doing.
Speaker 2 (05:39):
Out there, Well, it depends on what you're buying.
Speaker 4 (05:41):
But you're starting to see you're starting to see an
impact across the board. You're seeing actually a pullback and
in some of the revenge spending out of the pandemic.
Right there're still seemingly endless spending on things like leisure
and hospitality that is coming down.
Speaker 2 (05:58):
So we expect.
Speaker 4 (05:59):
Restaurants to solve, and a little bit. Home furnishings is weak. Obviously,
we have a really troubled and problematic housing market, so
we're not getting the lift from growth from a from
a growing housing market, so we're expecting home furnishings.
Speaker 2 (06:14):
To be soft.
Speaker 4 (06:15):
So we are we are looking for that softness under
the hood to come through. Now we have to point
out the juxtaposition here is everything that's happening in tech
and AI. We are seeing continuing to see a boom
in spending there and that's where you get the lift
in in capital investment.
Speaker 3 (06:32):
But the other investment out there, I mean, I mean
I thought of this earlier, folks, we didn't bring it
up on air. Let's do it business investment away from technology,
business investment. How do you characterize that grim.
Speaker 4 (06:47):
Yeah, it's zero, it's negative, negative, it's declining, declining, and
we think and we think that's going to continue. And
and our forecast at the beginning of the year sort
of cast us back to March when we were looking
at the rising level of uncertainty, was that this level
of uncertainty corresponds to business paralysis. We do not see
investment growing strongly when we have this level of uncertainty,
(07:11):
because businesses are like, I'll just just wait a quarter,
I'll wait till I get more clarity.
Speaker 2 (07:16):
Right, I'm not going to Why would I.
Speaker 4 (07:17):
Drive down the road at ninety miles an hour when
it's really foggy outside, I'll go forty five instead.
Speaker 6 (07:22):
Has that eased up a little bit in the last
couple of months as well?
Speaker 4 (07:24):
I recognize that, Well, it's eased up, but we're still
significantly above previous spikes and of course above previous stasis levels.
Speaker 3 (07:35):
So what's your number or in a headline, CPI, are
you on survey? Are you disinflating or increased inflation?
Speaker 4 (07:43):
Well, we're looking at zero point three percent month over
month and about two point eight on a year every year.
Speaker 3 (07:48):
Two point eight year every year that's sort of where
we are. Well. CPI month over month is zero point
two is a survey, So you're a tick above.
Speaker 2 (07:57):
I'm a tick above.
Speaker 3 (07:58):
Every little tick matters right well, and.
Speaker 2 (08:00):
It matters especially for that annualized rate.
Speaker 4 (08:02):
And it also matters where if people are feeling prices
go up in things that they purchase frequently, it takes
it psychologically. That takes a bigger bite out.
Speaker 3 (08:11):
So what we have here at Bloomberg, just to give
you a snapshot of is the constance one Hunter twelve
seconds to adjust to this. But what we have here
is the data that we all talk about in the media.
And then Michael McDonough and our team develop off the
Bureau of Labor Statistics a wonderfully colored chart which tells
(08:33):
a story. And I have core goods instantly here from
the report. It is zero point one point five to one.
I have no idea what that number means other than
constance hunter. I think I'm seeing a continuing trend of
core goods inflation.
Speaker 4 (08:50):
Ron yep, and we're seeing it in autos. So if
we look down in the detail, use cars and trucks
are now row zero point five percent month of a
month four point eight percent year over year. And like
I said, services is sticky, right, we have services less
energy services at zero point four percent month over month,
three point six percent year over year. And with those
(09:11):
sticky services, I will have to say it's going to
be challenging for the FED cut. We're going to have
to see really weak other data in the form of
jobs and retail sales.
Speaker 3 (09:20):
Should we say what the market's doing? Paul Sure? I
think we should five basis points in a lower yield
on a two year yield, the ten year yield and
three basis points the equity markets lived from flat up
to futures up twenty eight and the vicks in almost
to stick fifteen point four eight punk.
Speaker 7 (09:36):
Yeah.
Speaker 5 (09:36):
The three point one percent annual increase in the core
CPI takes that measure back to the height since February.
I'm looking at the Bloomberg Live top.
Speaker 3 (09:46):
Live can to list them there stand right on.
Speaker 6 (09:48):
Top of that, I mean the top like these blogs.
These guys are all over it.
Speaker 3 (09:51):
It's awesome now Chris and the entered team.
Speaker 7 (09:54):
Yeah, veryxy so.
Speaker 5 (09:54):
Wh sp fiatures up twenty four, Dow up one ninety,
and NASHTAC up one hundred and five points, it's four
tens to one percent.
Speaker 6 (10:01):
So certainly a move there constance.
Speaker 5 (10:04):
I mean, you know, it's calling into question that two
percent ish kind of target that the FED has for inflation,
whether it's core PCE or however you want to define it.
Is that a realistic goal these days in this economy.
Speaker 6 (10:18):
I just don't. A.
Speaker 5 (10:19):
I'm not sure whether they're fixated on the number. B.
I'm not sure how we get there.
Speaker 2 (10:23):
Well, should I answer the easier questions?
Speaker 7 (10:25):
First?
Speaker 4 (10:27):
The reason they're the reason that it's two percent is
because you need to have some inflation to grease the
wheels of growth, right, you don't you don't want to
tip into disinflation or deflation. On the other hand, you
don't want inflation to be a factor in businesses making
their decisions. And the problem with the level we have
now is it is a factor in businesses making their decisions,
(10:47):
and it's a factor in consumers making their decisions. And
so that's where it becomes really challenging for the FED.
On the other hand, we see this as attacks on
the economy. It in itself is going to slow growth
in addition to the slowness that we see under the hood,
and so It really just depends on the timing of
(11:08):
how quickly the labor market deteriorates and whether or not
the FED has space to act.
Speaker 5 (11:14):
Yeah, just an extraordinary here so again kind of the CPI, Right, Yeah,
I gave you your point two percent, Tom, I kind
of spot on line. I mean that core that ex
food and energy you're on your one percent is kind
of getting some play, folks.
Speaker 3 (11:28):
Here's here's the core CPI three monthly annualized is published
by bl S. This is from April two point one.
It went down to one point seven, it went up
to two point four, and now the three month annualized
is up to two point eight. Every textbook I have,
Constance Hunder tells me it's really hard to cut rates
(11:53):
given a three month trend of the three month annualized statistic.
Speaker 4 (11:58):
Right, And if you look at the Fed's work on this,
going back to the previous time that we raised traffs
admittedly by substantially less, right, it was that they should
look through this. Now the question is does a larger
teriff rate warrant the same look through. I think the
FED has telegraphed to us that they think it doesn't,
(12:18):
But does it.
Speaker 2 (12:19):
Warrant zero look through that also.
Speaker 4 (12:21):
They have they have seem to have telegraphed that they
think it doesn't warrant zero look through. If you look
at the dot plot, if you look at some of
the things that different FED governors have been saying, whether
it's Mary Daily, whether it's Neil Kashkari, right, Fed governors
that FED presidents have been saying, look, we see weakening
under the hood. And remember the FED funds, tart run
(12:42):
funds right right now is restrictive? Does it need to
be this restrictive? If they were to cut twice, it's
still restrictive.
Speaker 3 (12:49):
And this this headline here from Mark Niquet, Thank you
Mark for this. Just it's amazing. Our Bloomberg team gets
us out us core CPI picks up fastest pay since
January on services. Constance Hunter, thank you so much. Just
brilliant with the EIU. This morning, Rebecca Patterson said time
you really need to wear makeup? And I said no,
(13:10):
All our handlers are saying YouTube is We're makeup free
on YouTube at least I am, So we'll go with that.
Joining us now is Rebecca Patterson with a Council on
Foreign Relations and all over our service to best of
our trust JP Morgan and of course Bridgewater over the years. Rebecca,
this is the oddest place to be. I'm looking for
(13:31):
the revisions. I guess if I don't trust BLS, I
guess I trust the data. I don't have revisions yet
up on the screen. Let's just start with that. Okay,
the unemployment, right, there's an uproar. We got a new
guy in a hugely controversial Does Rebecca Patterson trust the
inflation statistics? Yes, that's where you gotta talk more, Lisa,
(13:55):
tellers talk more over.
Speaker 8 (13:56):
No, I mean, the United States has the best government
data in the world by a lot, and there are
dedicated civil servants who literally go around the country checking
prices in every community, of every variable and making sure
the data is as clean and reflective of what's really
(14:17):
happening as they can.
Speaker 3 (14:18):
My textbooks say, you got to be nuts. You can
cut rates given a two ish three ish three month
annualize inflation. Do you see any sense of transitory in
these statistics.
Speaker 8 (14:29):
I think we're in a new regime for inflation. I
think we're in a new regime for bond yields. So
if the economy slows a lot which Constant Constance was
talking about right before me. If the economy slows enough,
that's going to help pull inflation down. But that's not
a situation anyone wants, right. Usually you get deflation when
you have.
Speaker 3 (14:49):
A deep recession. We don't want that.
Speaker 8 (14:51):
But I think for the Federal Reserve, I was trying
to look at when is the last time we got
this rate cuts with inflation above target and the job
market softening? But okay, okay, nineteen ninety five. So at
the time they did three twenty five basis point insurance cuts,
inflation was running about two point three, so lower than where.
Speaker 3 (15:12):
We are now.
Speaker 8 (15:13):
The job market was okay, but the economy broadly was softening,
and so they said we're going to try to massage
this a little bit, and the stock market obviously loved it.
It was up about fifteen percent over the three cut
period the SMP, and I think that's probably what we're
going to get this time. I don't know if it's
one cut, two three. I lean towards less frankly because
(15:33):
of the inflation risk, and I think they'll they'll do
a cut in September. It's so priced in it would
be very difficult for the FED to argue against that,
but Jackson hole later this month. I believe it's August
twenty first, twenty third. That'll give us some more color,
I think on the sidelines of where they're leaning.
Speaker 5 (15:51):
Bloomberg Intelligence US rate strategist Are Jersey out with the
first take, saying, basically, the CPI print with the CPI
running at zero point two percent on the headline, suggests
that the pc print will allow the FED to ease
in September. So that's the first take from Ira Jersey here.
Speaker 6 (16:08):
What do you make?
Speaker 5 (16:09):
What did you make, Rebecca last week of the labor
data and then the president firing the BLS head and
all that kind of stuff, What did you make of
all that?
Speaker 8 (16:21):
I mean, is there an opportunity for the government to
modernize its data collection? Absolutely? But this is not easy,
right if you think about people do analysis of data
looking back ten twenty fifty in some organizations one hundred years.
If I suddenly change how I collect the data, I
have to make sure that new methodology doesn't screw up
(16:43):
how I look at the old data. Right, we don't
want apples and oranges. So it's actually a very difficult
process to make these changes, and you.
Speaker 6 (16:51):
Need resources to do that.
Speaker 8 (16:52):
The government has cut the budget for the BLS the
Bureau of Labor Statistics, so they have fewer resources, not
more to this modernization. But I do think they would
agree that this is the direction they should go. Try
to see what tools are out there they can use
to include in this process to make sure the data
is as relevant and reflective of the economy as possible.
(17:14):
Firing the head of the BLS I think was performative
and really a shame. I think at the margin, it's
one more small nail in the coffin of credibility of
US institutions.
Speaker 3 (17:24):
Mckey's going to be with a cerin a bit, but
let's start with you, Rebecca. My biggest problem with us.
You and I've talked about this before as we set up,
and I'm not going to blame ail in green Span.
I'm going to think it's going to come on behind
green Span. This idea that if we cut rates, once
we've established a new vector, a new trend of cutting rates,
why can't they come out, given the mess we're in,
(17:47):
whatever anybody's politics, and say we're going to do a
one off, twenty five beep cut. Why can't we do that.
Speaker 8 (17:56):
I think that's what they'll try to condition the market
towards that we felt there was room to make this
one insurance cut, and then we're going to continue to
be data dependent and see what's needed. The job data
is really tough. I was just looking before I came
in this morning. On one hand, you have the small
business sentiment survey this morning. Small business is a huge
(18:16):
part of the labor market. Confidence improved in July after
the big, beautiful fiscal stimulus bill was passed, but uncertainties high.
You get Challenger in Gray showing layoffs year on year
the oh sorry, year to date, the highest since twenty twenty.
But we know a lot of layoffs are very specific
federal government technology. So you can easily paint bullish and
(18:41):
not bullish, but okay pictures of the labor market and bearish,
and I feel like right now, depending on where you
sit in the FED, you can select data to have
a reasonable argument for your view.
Speaker 3 (18:53):
Are the separations in America? I mean, I think ludite
nineteenth century, I mean book where we are is a
nation and we're almost needing to prescribe rather two or
three FED policies. How can they do an aggregate FED policy, Paul,
to help the users of chat GBT exactly and perplexity
(19:17):
and people flat on their back and des moines, I
still get it.
Speaker 8 (19:21):
Think about Europe, right, you have a central bank governor
from Italy who's going to have a very different view
than the central bank governor from Are we.
Speaker 3 (19:28):
Different, brilliant, Are we any different on that?
Speaker 7 (19:31):
No, we're not.
Speaker 8 (19:31):
And that's part of the reason the FED was set
up the way it was to have a representative from
Kansas City and one from Texas and one from San Francisco,
so we represent the different economies within the US and
ideally they can debate and come up to an aggregate
view that's not perfect for any given region, but is
optimal for the economy. That's that's the goal, and that's
(19:52):
why they're set up that way, and honestly, I don't
know a better way to do it.
Speaker 6 (19:56):
A surprised at the stock market keeps seeing all time
hunts every day.
Speaker 8 (19:59):
No, it's oh concentrated in tech, and my perception is
that there is a lot of belief that in the
next whatever one to three years, we're going to break
into superintelligence and you're going to have a hockey stick
moment for those stocks, similar to what we saw after
GPT was launched two years ago, two and a half
years ago, and no one wants to miss that return.
(20:20):
So everyone's, as they say, holding on for dear life.
Speaker 3 (20:23):
Just so you know. This surveillance on August twelfth, the
break and super intelligence. It's surveillance is have your offspring
done their summer reading list? That's what we call super intelligence.
Right now, Lisa, how are we doing over there? I mean,
there's their second book, second book out of what eight?
Speaker 7 (20:39):
That's awesome.
Speaker 8 (20:42):
You're there, You're there, success, check the box.
Speaker 3 (20:45):
Kuse me, Rebecca. I got to switch here and apply
this economics and this inflation. The market's loving in futures.
I'm thirty three right now. Over to the oddity of
this market. You have handled really serious family high net
worth work at Bessemer just as one example, how do
(21:06):
you invest in this chaos? If you want to be measured,
want to be prudent, but must participate in the growth,
do you buy more? Nvidia is at the solution.
Speaker 8 (21:17):
No, I wouldn't hear at these levels, but if I
owned it, I also wouldn't be rushing to disinvest I
mean my approach has been for most of this year
to have be invested in equities, have a Barbelle approach,
so the tech sector, which is a structural theme despite
the valuations, but then to protect your downside with some
(21:38):
defensive sectors like utilities or consumer staples. And you know,
we've been talking about this for well over a year
as part of my diversifiers, to protect my downside. I
like gold, even with the tariff removed by President Trump
earlier this week, Gold's up twenty seven percent year to date,
more last year. And I think as long as the
(21:58):
world is uncertain and inflation and risks are to the upside,
that's going to be an asset that can benefit you.
Speaker 6 (22:05):
So evaluation here. You mentioned the concentration risk.
Speaker 5 (22:08):
Yeah, we haven't seen that really since the late nineties.
Now this is a different environment from the late nineties.
These companies have real earnings, real cash flow, but still
that concentration risk.
Speaker 6 (22:19):
It certainly makes me concerned.
Speaker 8 (22:21):
Yeah, I agree with that, and again that's part of
the reason I want to have this Barbell strategy. When
you talk to the CEOs of these large language models,
these megacap companies, megacap tech companies.
Speaker 2 (22:33):
They don't know.
Speaker 3 (22:34):
They don't know.
Speaker 8 (22:35):
How this story ends, and they'll admit that, and I
think they do publicly. So you're taking a risk with this.
You're counting on this inflection point moment for technology and
that over time it spreads through the economy. I think
looking for AI beneficiaries, not just the KEAI companies, is
a smart play. I think there's other thematics and they're
getting priced in, but I think they still have runway
(22:57):
things like infrastructure, things like global defense. Those are ways
that get an indirect play on AI, but at slightly
less crazy value. Not crazy crazy is the only word
to use high valuations.
Speaker 3 (23:09):
I got to call at Kansas City Fed today and
beg for a chair at the Pioneer Grill for breakfast.
Sounds good. I think it's on Friday when I'm there.
Are you going to be a checkson a hole?
Speaker 8 (23:19):
Sadly, I'm not.
Speaker 3 (23:20):
I'm going to Are you not going to be there?
Speaker 8 (23:22):
Because I'm also a mom and I'm going to make
sure my daughter is set up for a great school year?
Speaker 6 (23:27):
There you go, fun, It is time the.
Speaker 3 (23:30):
Door you do a dorm room like with the TV
in the Nine Yards. No, no, no, No, this was
a major debate a couple of nights ago. We're not
doing this. I don't judge.
Speaker 8 (23:40):
If someone wants to deck out their kids dorm Lisa,
help have fun, but no, I'm more of a I'm
going to get you there, make sure you have the
basics you need. Thank you, you're a grown up. You
can do this, go for it.
Speaker 3 (23:51):
Yeah, but my kids are perfectly Some of these kids
go to school today and it's like moving a house.
Speaker 9 (23:57):
There's a thing as a bed party.
Speaker 2 (23:59):
You have a bed party so.
Speaker 9 (24:01):
That the kids come to the house and they decorate
your child's bed in all the whole you know, merchandise
of the school.
Speaker 2 (24:08):
It's a thing now.
Speaker 8 (24:09):
I mean, God bless America.
Speaker 3 (24:11):
I guess we are.
Speaker 8 (24:12):
I mean there's a reason sixty eight percent of GDP
is consumption because people can be convinced they quote unquote
need to spend on this. And again, no judgment. If
they want, if that's how they want to spend their money, fine,
as long as they can afford it, As long as
these people are financially literate.
Speaker 3 (24:25):
I talked to McKeith, tough it out, tell your daughter,
kick her out the door. We'll see in JACKSONA Rebecca Patterson,
thank you so much with the counsul on Ford relations,
some important essays recently in the media. Just brilliant. There.
Speaker 1 (24:45):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch US Live
weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on
Applecarplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app, or
watch US Live on YouTube.
Speaker 3 (24:57):
Joining us now for Bloomberg Intelligence and fixing Irid Jersey
as well. Ira. As you set up to write to
the end of the week, are you looking at bills, notes,
bonds or are you looking even more short term than that?
Speaker 10 (25:11):
Well, actually medium term, but we're looking at we're looking
at real yields and what tips are doing and what
they're suggesting for inflation going forward, because obviously the market
and how it prices for inflation going forward is going
to be one of the determinants that the Federal Reserve
is going to use for determining whether or not, right
it's close enough to its target of two percent to
(25:33):
cut rates maybe as early as September.
Speaker 3 (25:36):
Okay, but I'm seeing in a real yield, Am I right?
The real yield as a general statements within range has
it broken out up or down?
Speaker 10 (25:44):
Yeah, it's been in this range for the better part
of this year. You know, call it on the tenure
about one and a half percent to two percent, and
you know we're towards the top of that right now.
And I suspect that over time as the Federal Reserve
cuts interest rates. Whether or not that's warranted is one thing,
but you will see probably really yields move a little
(26:05):
bit lower, but it will be move lower in a
what we call a bull steepening. So you'll see short
term like five year and two year tips yields probably
fall much more quickly than ten yure yields because the
longer term real yields are affected not only by monetary policy,
but also by expectations of supply. Right, what is the
(26:27):
deficit going to be at? And you know, so far
we haven't seriously addressed deficits, and we're still going to
have two trillion dollars more of treasuries a year from
now than we have today, and that's going to continue
to prop up long term real yields.
Speaker 5 (26:40):
Neil dudd It just out with a note from Renaissance Macro.
He says, you know, for the Fed July CPI data
lately cements a September rate cut. You think that's how
the market's interpreting IRA.
Speaker 10 (26:52):
Yeah, so the market's almost fully priced for a September
rate cut. What's interesting is that we're priced now for
a September rate cut and a December rate cut. My
feeling is is that once the Fed starts to move,
they're going to move and keep going. They're not going
to skip a meeting just at random. So I think
that if they do cut in September, they'll also go
in October and then December. Now will they go more
(27:14):
than say, another you know, four cuts and cut one
hundred basis points or will they cut more than that?
Still an open question. I suspect that ultimately they will
cut to below three percent. So you're talking about one
hundred and fifty basis points one hundred and seventy five
basis points of rate cuts this cycle. Well, keep in mind, Tom,
like you know, the way that they're thinking about this. Look,
inflation right now is two and a half percent. FED
(27:37):
funds is over four percent, So that means you have
a one and a half percent or more than one
and a half percent a real funds rate so to
get the neutral under be kind of there a simplistic
view of the world, they should could be able to
cut one hundred and seventy five base points and just
be at neutral as opposed to being at.
Speaker 3 (27:57):
Then why why well cut? Yeah?
Speaker 10 (28:03):
I think they haven't cut because they are worried about inflation, right,
They're worried about another another spike of inflation, and seeing
with with all the tariffs and the like, they are
concerned about about that. And also until recently, remember the
job market seemed to be holding up reasonably well and
even the wages continue to grow close to four percent.
When you have when you have job growth that is
(28:26):
barely at the replacement rate, there is a concern that
the job market might be the catalyst during this cycle
to actually slow the economy a lot more. And the
you know, the Federal Reserve does have a dual mandate.
And if we get another really weak data print for
the job market in September, you know, that opens up
the side open for the market to price in a
(28:49):
lot more cuts.
Speaker 3 (28:50):
And that's where I'm looking at the labor economy more
than the inflation focus is the focus to your Avery Jersey,
thank you so much. With Bloomberg Intelligence.
Speaker 1 (29:00):
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto
with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live
on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just
say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 3 (29:17):
This conversation is so timely, so important. We're going to
place it before CPI right now. As you know, the
President and mister Putin will meet in Alaska. Site unknown
and Marie Horden are reporting on that each and every day,
and Ukraine is on the periphery. Kira Rudik is of
the Ukraine Parliament, serving as a People's Deputy of Ukraine
(29:40):
and from the Holos party, and we're thrilled she could
brief us this morning. Kira, all of Ukraine must be
riveted on this debate. What is Ukraine's best outcome for
this Friday meeting?
Speaker 11 (29:55):
Hello, and thank you so much for having me. Well,
the best outcome would be that President Trump wouldn't take
yet another public humidiation from Russian President put In, and
that he will get finally annoyed and will impose sanctions
that he has promised and tariffs on everybody who is
buying something from Russia and will go ahead on continuing
(30:17):
pressuring Russia. The best outcome would be for President Trump
to realize yet again that it's not Ukraine that is
on the way of the peace coming. And well, you
to judge if it's realistic, but this will be the
best outcome that we can hope for.
Speaker 3 (30:37):
Should Ukraine give up territory, acreage land?
Speaker 11 (30:42):
The main question here, because you know everybody's asking should
Ukraine give up territories? The main question is for what?
And the second question is who or what will make
sure that in this case Russia would not attack us again,
Because asking Ukraine about territories is a simple question, Asking
(31:02):
who will make sure that Trashia will keep the part
of the bargain, whatever that bargain is, is a complicated question.
And we didn't hear any single world leader trying to
figure out that or at least hint him of how
it will work. Because we have been in so called
ceasefires with Russia since twenty thirteen dozens of times and
(31:23):
it never worked and there was nobody to complain to,
So how this time will be different? President Trump was
talking about swapping of the territories. How do you make
sure if even if we talk about swapping territories the
Trausia wouldn't take them back in like one or two.
Speaker 5 (31:40):
Years, Kira, For those in your country that advocate for peace,
what is that kind of based upon? What would be
an acceptable reasonable peace negotiation form? Do you think.
Speaker 11 (31:56):
Again, like when we are talking about peace, of course
people here on the ground they want peace, and we
are all exhausted.
Speaker 7 (32:03):
Of the war.
Speaker 11 (32:04):
But we also know again that whatever you agree with Russia,
it's very hard, almost impossible to make them stick to it.
So whatever talks are about heritories, about any agreements, the
first thing is how do you President Trump or European
leaders or whoever, how do you pressure Russia to keep
(32:26):
the part of the bargain. And before that, anything else
is useless to discuss because if the security guarantees are
not there, Russia will just use this time to group
and they will attack us again in a couple of years.
This is what happened again and again to us.
Speaker 3 (32:42):
This unique situation. And if we assume mister Zelenski is
on the outside, what do you need from Europe? Are
you looking the individual nations, Heiro rudic Or you're looking
to Brussels of a modern European Union.
Speaker 11 (33:01):
What worked for us in the past is working with
the individual nations. So we didn't get like certain amount
of weapons from NATO as it is, but from countries
like Britain, like Denmark, like Norway, like Germany, France. So
it works the best when we are working with the
individual nations. And the overall truth is we want everyone
(33:26):
just to execute on the promises that they have already made.
If that was done, we will already be in the
better positions. Unfortunately, times go differently in Ukraine when you
are under the bombardment and in peaceful cities of Europe
that are able to stay peaceful while we are stopping
Russia from whatever wherever they want to go next. And
(33:47):
so sometimes between the political promise and the moment when
Ukrainian soldiers getting weapons in his or her hands, it
could be years and this is not something that we
can afford.
Speaker 3 (33:57):
Right now, when you're in New York again, we would
be honored to have you in. Kier Rudik is a
member of Parliament for the Ukraine for Ukrainian Government. I
should say she's the People's Deputy of Ukraine, leader of
the holiest Party.
Speaker 1 (34:17):
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
starting at seven am Eastern on Apple, Corplay and Android
Otto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch
us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the
Bloomberg Terminal.
Speaker 3 (34:31):
Juvensteinis and the rest of the elite of the United
Kingdom have lived it. I'm going to say two years
ago they had a modest pension issue where they basically
had a marketing concept around pensions, which blew up. I mean,
just let's cut. Let's just leave it at that because
of time. He Peu von steinas with Oliver Wyman, just
(34:53):
wrote an essay. You know, Tracy Eloway and Joe Wis
them roars. He wrote it. You know he's the kill
and you wrote an essay for ad lites. The next
big thing in private credit? Come on, Hewett. Reminds me
of what you people lived in the Liz Trust. Blow
up your pension system? Do we really want bitcoin or directly,
(35:16):
do we want private credit in our four or one k?
Speaker 2 (35:20):
Well?
Speaker 12 (35:20):
Thanks for having me back on, Tom Well. The first
lesson I learned is never to I don't own the title,
the headline and the rock stars to use the title. Look,
I think that if you look at a retirement savings
around the world. You know, in the States a defined
benefit scheme has about twenty three percent in real estate
fixing come private equity Australia twenty to thirty points. But
(35:41):
for US retirees it's close to zero. It's actually about
two percent. And so I think giving investors more opportunities
to save and also manage their retirement is responsible. How
it's done. You know, there's a lot of innovation which
needs to be done. But literally give you one statistic.
About three and a half trillion are in target date funds.
Sixty eight percent of all inflows go into target light funds.
(36:02):
Do you know how many people switch every year? Just
one percent? It means it's the stickiest investment product on
the planet. And therefore, to say you have to invest
all of that in daily liquidity funds feels too tight. Okay,
what's the right amount?
Speaker 7 (36:15):
That's a debate.
Speaker 3 (36:16):
Let me get the line up here. Are you telling
me that Lisa Mateo in or two or John Tucker
in his two oh one K John Tucker goes into
private credit, he's going to get the quality the three
phone calls from Blackstone's going to get. I just don't
buy it. I mean, how do we know that we're
going to have quality private credit in a reserve vehicle.
Speaker 12 (36:37):
Look, I think it's a great question. So I think
you've got a couple of layers to this. So the
first is there's a whole bunch of fiduciaries who run
these systems. So there's investment consultants, there's planned sponsors. And
I think also these assets are not going to just
be thrown into a portfolio. They're going to be probably
in an evergreen fund, so in a thoughtfully managed, professionally
(36:57):
managed building block. So I think point one is there's
at least three layers of fiduciaries which are going to
be overseeing this. I think two is then thinking about
what is the right risk return. And obviously some large
institutional investors can take much more risk because they've got
pots of money and long duration. I think obviously here
it's going to be building blocks. But I think in
an environment where more and more loans are being done
(37:19):
outside of the banking system, I think it's fair enough
that that investors can invest in more credit, And I
think the key point, which we've discussed before, is the
difference between a five year public bond and a five
year private credit. It's a grey scale now, both are
quite a liquid, both have got characteristics. So I think
it's no longer black and white in this market.
Speaker 5 (37:38):
We haven't seen private credit experience a significant prolonged economic downturn,
have we. We don't know how it's going to perform
in a capitalic constrained environment. What's the what's the thinking there?
Speaker 7 (37:50):
Look, it's a great question.
Speaker 12 (37:52):
So I mean, one way I think about it is
that as the as the universe of what's in private
credit spans, it's going to drift towards what we've learned
from the banks of the lot twenty or thirty years,
because effectively these are bank loans which are being put
into private structures. There was a FED study about two
years ago, so it's a bit dated now, which showed
that the loss the probability of default was about a
(38:13):
third lower for the private credit loans at that stage.
Probably bit of cherry picking, but then the loss given
default so when it goes wrong, what you reclaim was
a bit worse, but net net, so far it's been
it has been better.
Speaker 7 (38:24):
But you're right.
Speaker 12 (38:25):
As the industry scales, there'll be good decisions and bad
decisions and so naturally returns will.
Speaker 3 (38:30):
Probably cold down the market.
Speaker 12 (38:32):
Look, this is this is one of the ask this
is one of the really critical questions. So the moment
they're marked probably every quarter, every quarter, every quarter, Oh,
come on, and that's note. So what we argue in
that piece for the rock stars was that the pricing
conventions will need to evolve so they're done at least
on a monthly basis.
Speaker 3 (38:52):
Say, is this a new thing or Colm Tracy and
Joe rock stars? Yeah, is that like a new thing?
That's a mandate? Okay, continue the rock starts so every
ninety days in no way.
Speaker 7 (39:04):
So that's why.
Speaker 12 (39:05):
But this so as you move from money being managed
for institutional investors and coming into wealth, there's a number
of things which will have to change, and obviously around
that ecosystem for a better word, you know, pricing will
change the structures. You know, there's a lot of work
which is being done and people.
Speaker 3 (39:23):
Are going to have a limitation and how much they
can have in private creditor for that matter been done.
Speaker 12 (39:28):
So if we think about in the retirement system. Look,
we've only just had the executive order last week, so
there's a lot of work still to be done. But
it's like rewirement, right, So going back to it, there's
at least three layers of fiduciaries. I think the fiduciaries
will have you know, will want to pilot, they want
to experiment, they want to go slowly. Give you an
example in the Australian system. Let's take the Australian super Fund.
(39:50):
It's the biggest funds in Australia. They have twenty three
points in private assets. They really two percent in private
credit because they're trying to listen, learn and ex experiment.
So this is not a this is not a torrent.
This is going to be something which will take a
good sh.
Speaker 3 (40:04):
Australia has twenty three plus two twenty five basis points
in alternative.
Speaker 12 (40:09):
Twenty three twenty three points not basis points points, So
twenty three percent of the Australian super Fund which.
Speaker 3 (40:16):
Is alternative investments.
Speaker 7 (40:18):
Yeah, now that's across really stay of equity.
Speaker 5 (40:20):
In the Veronicas, Tom, you know the Veronicas, we do
a lot of work with registered investment advisors here at
Bloomberg and Alex Steel and I did a bunch of
remotes with them, and I was shocked at the amount
that an average registered investment advisor, a retail advisor in
any town USA has an allocation to private alternatives.
Speaker 7 (40:42):
I thought it would have been.
Speaker 5 (40:42):
Five percent, six percent. No, it's twenty twenty five percent.
That's just amazing. But I'm guessing not a lot of
that is in private credit.
Speaker 7 (40:51):
At the moment. It'd be not that much.
Speaker 12 (40:53):
Although actually, you know interesting if you look at these
sort of private credit funds for wealthy that's called called
evergreen funds, they're not only for a wealthy of they
can be for institutions YEA. To date, they're growing about
sixty percent compound probably makes it the fastest growing part
of the investment ecosystem. So it's growing, it's growing.
Speaker 3 (41:12):
Keevan Steina's with this area are commercial free until nine am.
We welcome all of you across at the nation. Good
morning across the United Kingdom as well. Mister van Stinez
is with Oliver Wyman, run YouTube. Subscribe to Bloomberg Podcasts
a live Chad effervescent this morning to say at least read,
agree to the screen extremely quiet tape here nineteen minutes
(41:34):
away from the CPI.
Speaker 7 (41:36):
Paul with you please, I mean, I'm shocked, Hugh.
Speaker 5 (41:39):
I want to what your view is. Why are the
banks allowing this business to go away? From the private
credit business. I started my career at the Chase Manhattan
bank leverage lending to the media sector. You know, we
make money upfront, and we did the deal we did
lve Woark plus three, we sold off. We syndicated all
of our risk off the balance the solid to banks
(42:01):
all around the country so we had no balance sheet risk,
and then the next day we turn around to do
it all again. That was a great business. We made
a fortunes. Why am I letting that business go to
some of these private credit guys?
Speaker 7 (42:12):
Look, Paul, I think it's a great question.
Speaker 12 (42:13):
I think actually the wins are slightly changing on this,
partly with the deregulation but stronger banks. But let's face it,
post the Financial crisis, there was a whole reregulation of banks,
particularly in twenty twelve the FED told the US banks
not to own as many leverage loans, and then from
that there was a decade into the pandemic where private
credit grew a trillion dollar parallel system in the US,
(42:35):
and now as we come to today, then we obviously
twenty three you know, with the interest rate shot banks
from the back foot, they also were cautious. Today the
leading banks are now much back on the front foot.
And if you look at the leverage lending space, many
of the banks have tried to refinance the private credit
loans and lift them to try and argue them back.
But you know, there's also some structural areas where many
(42:56):
of the private credit firms, being entrepreneurial, are now looking
for fresher pastures. So they're looking into equipment leasing, aircraft leasing.
Well thanks just got out of aircraft leasing, you know
years ago, data center financing again, that's moving increasingly towards
the private credit. So look, I think everything has a cycle,
and I think the private smarter private credit funds are
looking for fresh, fresh loans.
Speaker 3 (43:17):
Okay, I mean everybody wants in on this. I get it.
And it's an umpteen trillion dollar fronk plan. What are
you worried about, Hugh Vanstein, is what's the you know,
paragraph three, page twelve of the red hearing ages ago,
what's the risk factors here?
Speaker 12 (43:32):
Look, I think there's there's a there's a number of things.
So as you move towards the wealthy in retail, I think,
as you said, Tom, we need to get the pricing conventions,
the right structures, the right cash flows. There's a whole
bunch of stuff around the engineering of the of the plumbing.
And look at what we've learned in finance is often
it's the plumbing which actually creates the problem rather than
(43:54):
actually just the assets something.
Speaker 3 (43:55):
So tranches, folks, are not a trench, a trunch. Tranches
are high quality pieces of whatever it is down to
a lesser quality. We learned in seven that the quality
tranch is moving was a really ugly mover for institutional money.
Is private credit going to be trenched out? So you
(44:16):
know in your four oh and K the level of
risk of private credit you're going to have in your portfolio.
Speaker 12 (44:22):
So this is a that this is something that I expect.
I think the ratings agencies are all over this space.
They see a new business in trying to rate a
much larger amount of the private credit space too. And look, Tom,
I think we need to be careful here between the
risky stuff, the non investment grade and the ig that
you know what tripped us up in the financial crisis
(44:43):
was buying an awful lot of the stuff that people
thought was low risk. Actually the non investment grade by definition,
you know it's risky, so you don't pile it on.
Speaker 3 (44:51):
We got to do a joint interview with Hugh von
Steinas and Mark Kearney. Well, Curry is a little occupied something,
so I think thank Yousina's working with the Bank of
Them a bit ago.
Speaker 1 (45:01):
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
starting at seven am Eastern on Apple, Corclay and Android
Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen
live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,
Just say Alexa, play Bloomberg.
Speaker 2 (45:17):
Eleven thirty were.
Speaker 3 (45:18):
The Newspaper's Lisa Matteo.
Speaker 9 (45:20):
Okay, Tom, I thought you would get a kick out
of the story because I know you love the dreaded
Yankees as you call them. They have the star studded roster, right,
the three hundred million dollar payroll. But the question and
every fan's mind is what the heck is going on?
Speaker 6 (45:32):
Right?
Speaker 2 (45:32):
Why is the team not showing up?
Speaker 9 (45:34):
They came out of the weekend barely clinging to the
half game lead over the Cleveland Guardians to get that
final Al wild card spot. So the Wall Street Journal
kind of puts the spotlight on the ownership and points
to hal Steinbrenner, who took over the family business like
seventeen years ago, a different managerial philosophy than his father did.
They said that house a little bit loyal. You know,
(45:56):
he doesn't scream and do all that kind of stuff.
But the question there is when does he step in?
Like the Yankees are struggling right We know that pitching
has been an issue. They haven't won a title since
two thousand and nine. I still have the T shirt,
but little has changed. So that is the question when
are things going to start to They're.
Speaker 6 (46:15):
In the playoffs pretty much every year.
Speaker 5 (46:17):
They were the World Series last year, but Yankee expectations
are uniquely higher than everybody else in the sports. It's
when the World Series orts a it's a bad year.
Speaker 3 (46:30):
Can we note even though we lost last night, the
ace for the Red Sox is pitching. The ace for
the Yankees has been out all year.
Speaker 7 (46:39):
Yeah, that's that's a big deal.
Speaker 3 (46:41):
That's key.
Speaker 6 (46:41):
That's a big deal.
Speaker 5 (46:42):
And so we started the airplane just fantastic, But the
last fifty games have been terrible, so we'll see if
they can turn it around.
Speaker 3 (46:50):
But they've got time to turn it around.
Speaker 6 (46:52):
You have time with a wild card, I mean exactly.
Speaker 3 (46:55):
You know, I think the Chicago White Sox are reaching
for the worst right now. You're still in it.
Speaker 9 (47:00):
Next, okay, we'll take you over to the labor market.
Speaker 6 (47:04):
This is interesting.
Speaker 9 (47:05):
The Wall Street Journal is saying the era of those
big pay raises for low paid workers could be over,
or at.
Speaker 2 (47:10):
Least maybe taking a pause.
Speaker 9 (47:12):
It's it's a different site before, you know, the year
right before the pandemic and then right after the pandemic
where we saw the opposite of it. You know, it
pointed to the July jobs report which kind of compared
you know, leisure and hospitality workers, you know, a three
point five percent increase from a year earlier, and then
you had the information sector that was up about five
point four percent. But what it really does, it's a
(47:32):
good look into the history of the wage gap and
how that has fluctuated over the past few years. So
I just thought this was a good one to point
out because you know, it's a good look back into.
Speaker 6 (47:41):
The history of it.
Speaker 5 (47:42):
And how college Sun's got a summer job. I'm shocked
that it was getting paid per hour.
Speaker 6 (47:46):
I mean it's like a real paycheck. I'm like, dude,
what do you can do with all this cash?
Speaker 3 (47:49):
Like, what's there? Lisa, let's stop to show your folks.
Lisa and Tom Keane asking Paul, how do your children
are all gods? They're all employed?
Speaker 6 (47:59):
Not hu, she cut him off. But it depends on
the sector.
Speaker 9 (48:03):
Like my nephew just got a job. He's still in college,
but they guaranteed him a job making six figures before
he's even graduated.
Speaker 5 (48:11):
Yeah, I think just for the like the you know,
the hourly worker.
Speaker 6 (48:16):
Amazon is the market.
Speaker 7 (48:17):
I mean, it's not the.
Speaker 6 (48:18):
Federal governor, the market government market center.
Speaker 3 (48:21):
Absolutely.
Speaker 6 (48:22):
I mean, because they employed so many people and they're
paying up and that's you have to match it.
Speaker 3 (48:27):
So anyway, thank you.
Speaker 9 (48:28):
Okay, swifties waking up to a real treat.
Speaker 2 (48:31):
Did you know it was.
Speaker 9 (48:32):
A surprise album drop from Taylor Swift It is the
Life of a show Girl, and she revealed it on
her boyfriend Travis Kelsey's new Heights poss Still Together. They're
still together. This was the announcement on Access. She pulled
out a vinyl record from a briefcase.
Speaker 2 (48:46):
Take a lesson mc green.
Speaker 3 (48:49):
Yep, this is my brand new album, The Life of
a Showgirl.
Speaker 8 (48:56):
If that is it?
Speaker 7 (48:57):
Okay?
Speaker 9 (48:58):
So the videos posted at twelve twelve New York Time
on the twelfth, her twelfth studio.
Speaker 6 (49:02):
Album, You Get I Get It.
Speaker 2 (49:04):
Okay, see the theme.
Speaker 9 (49:05):
Okay. It comes after her eleventh album. The official release
date it hasn't been announced yet, but pre.
Speaker 2 (49:10):
Orders now available.
Speaker 6 (49:12):
So that was the whole thing together. I mean they're
in an age.
Speaker 2 (49:17):
Yeah, she's still going strong.
Speaker 9 (49:21):
They are, they are, but if these are are rejoicing
this morning.
Speaker 5 (49:25):
But she just got off like a monster tour. That
was a couple of years, right, yes, yes.
Speaker 9 (49:29):
Yes, so now so now comes the next album.
Speaker 3 (49:31):
All right, this is just you know, out of COVID.
I mean, I mean, she invented the self help record
in COVID, No kidding, those quiet records.
Speaker 9 (49:41):
Jack in a big fight against him.
Speaker 3 (49:43):
Yeah, you know it is Shrewd the right wok.
Speaker 7 (49:46):
Yeah, totally.
Speaker 3 (49:46):
Yeah, she's like a big time Shrewd and she's killing it.
Lisa Matteo, thank you so much.
Speaker 1 (49:52):
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple Spotify,
and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday,
seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, the
iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You
can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and
(50:13):
always on the Bloomberg terminal
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