April 23, 2025 • 37 mins
Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.
Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyApril 23rd, 2025
Featuring:
1) Huw van Steenis, Vice Chair at Oliver Wyman, joins in studio for an extended discussion on Nixonian elements of Trump admin, global corporate and business confidence, and how it's all intersecting with what he sees in the financial and banking sectors. Markets and the economy are facing increased uncertainty, with President Trump most recently saying he has no intention of firing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, despite his frustration with the central bank not moving more quickly to slash interest rates. Trump wants Powell to lower interest rates, saying it's a "perfect time" to do so, and would like to see the chairman be "early or on time, as opposed to late".
2) Dan Ives, Global Head: Technology at Wedbush Securities, breaks down Tesla earnings. CEO Elon Musk says he will devote more time to Tesla starting next month, scaling back his work with the US government, which has been a concern for investors. Tesla's stock jumped 7% despite missing analysts' estimates for revenue and earnings, with the company citing weakness in its core automotive business and tariff headwinds.
3) Chris Grisanti, Chief Equity Strategist at MAI Capital Management, brings us into the market open and what lower corporate earnings will mean for equities. Stocks and bonds rose as global markets reacted positively to the Trump administration's easing of tensions, including President Trump's statement that he has no intention of firing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
4) Mick Mulroy, co-founder of the Lobo Institute, joins to discuss turmoil at the Defense Department. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has been courting controversy, including sharing sensitive details about an impending US attack on Houthi militants on an unsecured commercial chat platform and purging some of his handpicked staff. Despite calls for Hegseth to be fired, President Donald Trump remains supportive, attributing the controversies to "disgruntled employees" and saying Hegseth is "doing a great job."
5) Lisa Mateo joins with the latest headlines in newspapers across the US, including WSJ's story on fashion in Little League and Bloomberg's report on the hottest amenity at US airports.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg
Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern
on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.
Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch
(00:25):
us live on YouTube.
Speaker 2 (00:27):
Everything we do, folks here is about a conversation with
people with breadth. There are few in the Western world
with a breadth of finance, like Cuba and Steinas. I'm
not going to bore you with a resume. He wandered
by a school named Oxford a few years ago, did
some serious work with Bank of England and added tour
(00:47):
duty at Morgan Stanley. He is definitive on our financial system.
Tim Adams Scott Bessent ten am, what's a question you
would ask a secretary treasurer?
Speaker 3 (00:59):
Wow, thanks to having me on look.
Speaker 4 (01:01):
One conversation I'm hearing which doesn't come out in the
press much is about the strain on cash flow for
small business.
Speaker 3 (01:08):
You know, it's a huge topic for private equity and
for banks.
Speaker 4 (01:11):
Right, Let's imagine you put in a ten million order
in for toys. You now have to pay twenty four
million dollars if they come from China, you simply don't
have that cash flow. So my question would be, how
worried are you about small business not being able to
stock their shelves?
Speaker 2 (01:26):
Okay, folks, you flunk this in a CFA exam. I've
done and I've enjoyed it. Working capital, and this is
to go into the way a business runs. There's a
thing called the cash conversion cycle. Part. Did you memorize
that that was with the three ratio and the five ratio?
Do plat formula que Vestin is your expert at this?
(01:46):
When you see terror of adjustments, I don't understand how
you go from three percent to ten percent or one
hundred percent and your world blows up. I mean that's
where we are right.
Speaker 4 (01:58):
Well, look, I don't think any of us have seen
anything like this before. I mean I think I wrote
a bit about the Nixon shock where obviously Nixon did
impose a ten percent tariff for four months, for four months,
but I guess the markets can't stand that, you know,
wouldn't tolerate four months here and that did is you
know that did lead to product shortages and to price
bikes because people couldn't forget cash conversion cycle?
Speaker 2 (02:20):
Do at Walmart. That's the heart of the matter.
Speaker 4 (02:23):
That probably Walmart's not my expertise, But if I think
about the conversations we're having, the focus is predictlarly around
retailers small businesses who just don't have the cash buffer.
If your Walmart, clearly you're really large, you're very sophisticated,
you do have big cash buffers. But if you're a
small business running from quarter to quarter to month to month,
how are you going to be able to pay two
(02:44):
point four times what you expected when you may be
worried about not a pubby able to pass it on.
So what we're picking up is people trying to wriggle
out of their orders if they can, and at least
not renew those orders. That's the conversation the Finance is having,
which I don't see enough in the main impress yet.
Speaker 5 (03:01):
To the extent that the President in this team are
walking back some of this tariff rhetoric. Has some of
the damage already been done? Do you think are we
seeing in the system already just because of the rhetoric?
Speaker 4 (03:12):
So this is so I think this is what we
distinguished between like sort of the growth shock and then
kind of let's call it the more institutional shock, what
all the taboo questions which we wouldn't have asked in
the past, which now opened. I think in terms of growth,
it clearly has been a bit of a punch in
the gut for small business, which is the heartlands of America.
Larger business are clearly ducking and diving through this. If
I think about my area, thinking about the finance, finance, Look,
(03:35):
the volatility has actually been quite good for the investment
banks because I've been trading, yep. But the business confidence
that one section. But the lack of conder corporate confidence
is pushing deals to the right and certainly our conversations
as some firms think, actually the deal pick up now
is not till twenty twenty seven, not till twenty twenty seven.
Speaker 2 (03:55):
First, wow.
Speaker 5 (03:57):
Interesting. So I mean, I guess if nothing else, you know,
we've this a million times before. The markets don't like uncertainty.
But we're starting to see it in the survey data,
whether it's the University of Michigan data or that you know,
the pmis it's out there, right, I mean, it's not
in the hard data. Maybe the FED looks like but
we certainly see it in some of the other software data.
Speaker 4 (04:17):
Yeah, I mean, look you I'm sure you know my
good friend Torston's looks great. On's trying to slice andize this.
But if you look at you know ships coming into
La or elsewhere about the stocking that they're down by
a third to a half, that's clearly a sign of
stress coming into the system. No, look, I mean at
the data will come through, but the FED will need
to be very data to well. Could always be data dependent,
(04:38):
but it will be the historic data. Markets are clearly
going to move way faster to.
Speaker 2 (04:41):
Von steinas with US folks, Oliver Wyman can't see the
importance of this for Global Wall Street even more important
in fifty minutes, Scott besn't with Tim Adams in Washington,
hugely anticipated. Okay, you mentioned Torsten Slock, your Apollo management.
You want to go out a choir, you get the
Deutsche b brain power of doctor Slock. Wonderful. The bottom line,
(05:04):
and this is Paul's world, is I don't buy for
a minute. Everything's wonderful and private equity. What does an
adult like you do? What are the tea leaves, the
litmus paper, the measurements you're looking for for stresses in
private equity.
Speaker 3 (05:19):
It's a great question.
Speaker 4 (05:20):
Look, these are unbelievably entrepreneurial folk, and so they're trying
to sort of weave their way through this. Look, I
think the first and second line is really about the
order books. Has the sales come down, whether I've got
highly leveraged companies trying to forensically work through that. So
I think it's about cash conservation and it's about getting
a cost down. So I'm already picking up people saying
(05:42):
to all their management teams, have you thought about a
cost round? What are you doing about that? So that's one,
But on the other side in credit land, they're actually
people trying to look this as an opportunity and actually
trying to buy in.
Speaker 3 (05:53):
Some of the credits.
Speaker 4 (05:54):
A wider spreads than we'd see in eight weeks.
Speaker 2 (05:56):
There's somebody selling those spreads totally. Do they book a
loss now.
Speaker 4 (06:03):
To again, it depends depends we turn about the private
Let's be clear, about sixty percent of the new influs
for the private market firms for the last two years
has been credit and overwhelming. As we've discussed before, that's
coming from the insurers. These are steady hands they want
to deploy in size, but obviously on the equity side
(06:24):
there more stress in the system. Bo was okay, g okay?
Speaker 5 (06:33):
So you have has Wall Street kind of with the
earning sessments out there? Has was Street adjusted to this
no uncertainty or do you still see downside risk to
earning sessments out there?
Speaker 3 (06:43):
God?
Speaker 4 (06:44):
Look, I think that Let's be clear. Everyone is struggling
to comprehend the range of scenarios. So to give you
a simple answer is just it's just inconceivable. I think
the like what are them the simpler moves, there's like
the overwhelming conclusion of this where we to to find
a better way to diversify your portfolio, and that at
the moment than one way trade is look more towards
(07:04):
Europe and Asia and look, European banks is stop twenty
five percent year today.
Speaker 3 (07:08):
Wow, you know, let's be clear, you.
Speaker 4 (07:10):
Know, and I know that may not be the place
that's now that's a smaller market for you, but I've
clearly on this side of the pond there are Look,
I think it comes back to how corporate confidence plays
out on the stress and the system and how quickly
the demonstration blinks. These are you know, complex questions which
you're dealing with every day.
Speaker 2 (07:30):
Sorry, this is this wheelhouse. Hugh Einstein is folks. You
know you got to start somewhere, and he started by
being the required fourteen page read every four or five
days in the European banks. I mean, I'm don't you, folks,
But Hugh doesn't understand. He's never used a Bloomberg. Here's
no clue. And the bottom line is I got JP
Morgan hitting the ball out of the park with a
priced book of two times in trading at one third
(07:53):
even after the twenty five percent rally is BMP Perry
Bar of Paris. I get the idea that the English,
the French, whatever, banks are off the mat, but do
they have the growthiness of America? I don't buy it.
Speaker 3 (08:08):
No.
Speaker 4 (08:09):
I toltally by that. So that's a that's a value trade,
not a growth trade. Look, I think the challenge here
is this is a growth shock and then somewhat of
an institutional shock. And I think all the financials I'm
talking to are working through reworking their plans, but they're
struggling to sort of be precise because they just don't
know how quickly the administration will blink on tariffs and
there for how how big a shock it is to
the system. But you're right, Tom, we we're Europe's value trade,
(08:33):
not a growth trade.
Speaker 5 (08:34):
So but you we have seen I guess as recently
as kind of late last year, very early this year,
international money, none US money, was coming into the US
markets in waves. I was really noticeable people were seeing
in fund flows. Now that seems to have reversed a
little bit and we're now seeing funds go back into
(08:55):
your back into other parts of the world. Is that
a short term trade or is that something morris able?
Do you think that those funds back out?
Speaker 4 (09:02):
My sense from the international asset owners is that they
want to continue to repatriate, and I think that's partly
a concerned tactical concern about the market situation, but it's
also about weaker dollar. But also there's institutional pressure to
deploy at home. So if you're the Maple LX, sorry,
the largest date Canadian funds, they're looking to try and
help the home by the home building spree that my
(09:24):
old boss, Prime Minster Karney is going to be doing,
alongside many other interatives in Europe. Some of the big
pension funds are looking to help fund the defense spending
spree about to happen, So all of them are thinking
strategically they need to have more money back at home.
Now that's at the margin, but it's definitely more money
coming back.
Speaker 2 (09:40):
Well, let's rip up the script and an extended conversation
with Hugh von Steins of Oliver Wine. You know Dan Tannemba,
I'm so brilliant and sanctions. They've really put together a
huge team at Oliver Wyman and we're thrilled he could
join us in our studios today in New York. So
then let's rip up the strip on this and go
sixty thousand feet Mark Kearney. Uh, you know there are
(10:01):
other worthies that are driving our mister Powell, the others
that are driving our financial system. The heart of the
matter is the renominal GDP. Finally, back almost to Conrad
add in our and Viilli Brandt, we got to have
a Germany with pop Do you buy it?
Speaker 4 (10:20):
I So I think this is the spending of probably
up to a trillion euros about rearmament, defense and just
quite frankly, resilience is a real game change.
Speaker 6 (10:33):
I think they're going to execute.
Speaker 4 (10:35):
But I think there will be slower to execute them.
And the one era we've chattered back for is it's
not just about government spending. You need private sector spending.
And the kind of breadth and depth of capital markets
in Europe are still not the deep depth you want.
And we need the plumbers. We need the plumbers to
try and get the system to work much more effectively.
The let's say, let's say, oh no, if you look
(10:58):
at the States, there is four trillion of US insurance
money is in the market to fund the system. European
insurers have got straight jacketed about how they can put
money into equities, into venture capital.
Speaker 3 (11:12):
Private equity is the heart of the.
Speaker 2 (11:15):
Matter, folks with he framed far smarter than me, or
the absolute heart of the matter. Can Europe can the
old world? Can Rubinian Taileeb's Old world equitize? That's the
heart of the matter.
Speaker 3 (11:27):
I think it's right.
Speaker 4 (11:28):
Well, it's equitized and providing risk capital because it's really
about its venture capital.
Speaker 3 (11:33):
It's growing small businesses.
Speaker 4 (11:34):
It's how do you do all these you know, defense
tech startups. We need a range of risk capital, I mean,
and the way we the markets it's improving, but we
need to turbo charge it from here.
Speaker 2 (11:46):
I had a conversation with leguard Is, Trade Minister of
France ready twenty one years ago, and we were talking
the same thing we're talking to human.
Speaker 6 (11:54):
Steve's exactly right now.
Speaker 5 (11:55):
So Hugh, in terms of Europe kind of reinvesting in
their infrastructure, maybe in their military, there's I guess what
I've heard is Okay, Germany can do it. Poland probably
could do it just because they had been doing it
for a while because given their geographic location relative the Russia.
But can Spain do it? Can Italy do it? Can
Portugal do it? I mean did they have the wherewithal
to do that?
Speaker 4 (12:17):
So there's a fiscal question, and then it's kind of
like do they have the right ecosystem, the skills, the expertise.
And you can see that actually, because Europe hasn't been
investing in defense, there's been a real aerospace is good
because there's a whole cluster around in the south of France.
Actually you should go and visit to what one time
around you know where you know the aerospace industry is
coming from. But elsewhere in terms of drones and some
(12:38):
of the other areas it's going to come. Look, the
fiscal challenges are huge, and that's the But in a way,
what we've seen here is that the fiscal spending has
been part of the US exceptionalism. The real booster to
spending here has come also from the government perse right now, wrongly.
I think we're getting to get some of that in
cour Europe. Whether we're going to go enough to justify
the evaluations, it is a bit tougher question un seen us.
Speaker 2 (13:00):
Thank you so much.
Speaker 1 (13:07):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live
weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on
Applecarplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app, or
watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 2 (13:20):
Joining us now the fun for lunch Bunch crew Lisa
Matteo and Daniel Lives of of Red Bush. Here and
a bright pink for those of you on radio. You're
lucky wearing bright pink today? Comment down, Dan, is this
a corduroy? Look you're way it is?
Speaker 6 (13:36):
It's it's corduroy. Will I mean a little? It could
be a little even Sweeney influenced. It's it's Lisa.
Speaker 5 (13:43):
You can't see me wearing that, can you?
Speaker 2 (13:46):
I could see him walking into a showroom at Tesla's showroom. Yes,
and I'll take one of those.
Speaker 6 (13:50):
I'll take Paul.
Speaker 2 (13:51):
Why don't you leave it up with his worship Dan.
Speaker 5 (13:53):
We had Tesla report earnings last night. We had mister
Elon Musk on the earnings call. The earnings were very disappointing.
Speaker 3 (13:59):
You have to stock is trading hired? Why is the
stock trading hired?
Speaker 2 (14:02):
Here?
Speaker 7 (14:03):
I mean numbers were basically took a back seat. We
already knew was a disaster recorder the reality. This was
the moment of truth from Musk.
Speaker 6 (14:12):
To basically what I've used.
Speaker 7 (14:13):
It's an off ram to Trump Whitehouse and doage, and
that's essentially what he did. And he took a major
step back on doage, says one two days a week.
I think there's the beginning of the end there and
going to recommit.
Speaker 6 (14:24):
His CEO of Tessa.
Speaker 7 (14:26):
Look, the reality is, and we've talked about on the show,
brand damage was at a point he had to read
the room and if he didn't make this decision now,
it would have been dark days ahead. And that's why
the stock's going to be up because now Tessa got
back at CEO.
Speaker 5 (14:41):
Now Tesla's in a new world of competition. It just
looks to me as a you know, a lay person.
Here China is taking over the evy market globally with
the exception of the United States.
Speaker 3 (14:53):
How does Tessa.
Speaker 5 (14:54):
Deal with by D and others?
Speaker 7 (14:56):
Look, I don't at first, I don't view as you
know that it's you know, you can't have success from
Tesla as well as Boyd. I don't have view as
zero some gunn. But look, Tessa has work cut out
for them. I mean they they have to have a
new vehicle that comes out. You have to have the
refresh in terms of model why and the reality is
(15:16):
China's forty five percent of out So that is the
hearts and lungs of Tesla.
Speaker 6 (15:21):
But that's also why it's so important.
Speaker 7 (15:23):
There's only one person that could engineer this turnaround in China.
Speaker 5 (15:27):
It's Musk and I think Elon is probably the best
I've ever seen of kind of maybe Jeff Bezos as well,
kind of redirecting investor sentiment where he wants it to go.
And I think he's saying, don't look at me as
a metal bender car company, look at me as an
AI company, robotics company.
Speaker 6 (15:44):
Is that valid?
Speaker 7 (15:45):
I mean, we believe the core value of the future
of Tesla is autonomous and robotics. And obviously Keen will
being there on supervised fist in Austin in June. I
know he's getting ready. And look, I think this is
just the beginning of what we're going to see in
terms of autonomous. That to me is a core value.
Speaker 2 (16:04):
You're not gonna do autonomous on fifty eighth Street in
New York City. I mean, it's just not gonna happen.
Speaker 7 (16:09):
Look, I truly believe over the next three, four or
five years that autonomous is going to start to represent five, ten,
fifteen percent on Really.
Speaker 2 (16:19):
Do I say, I don't agree, but he's wearing pink
I don't agree. Okay, let's go to Intel. We got
a major story out this morning. This has gone worldwide
instantly on Bloomberg. This is Intel down sixty six percent
from the peak, and it's just simple, brilliant reporting by
Jane Lenny Lee and Ian King. They're Gonnaly have twenty
percent of their staff the annual report of twenty nineteen.
(16:42):
We are a world leader, our vision, our commitment to
corporate responsibility and sustainability. What happened this thing was iconic
Dunda da du.
Speaker 7 (16:54):
I mean, just think about it. Go back to where
Nvidio was twenty nineteen, twenty twenty May. If you look
from gals Singer, it's just the whole corporate structure there,
the red tape. I mean Intel, it's really a business
case study for what happens when you go as.
Speaker 2 (17:09):
A CFA business case study it is.
Speaker 7 (17:12):
It's what happened when you're on the treadmill.
Speaker 6 (17:14):
You think no one's going.
Speaker 7 (17:15):
To catch you, Okay, Apple, Apple makes their own chips
because ultimately that they box out Intel.
Speaker 2 (17:23):
I am a Codec brattfo from Rochester. I lived this
with Codec. The marketing guys take over, the slick guys
take over, and the company goes down the tank until
you're bringing culp from ge or Danaher to ballot out
their gross strategy. Is they got to get back to
basics in an engineer driven company. Is that a legitimate
(17:43):
model or is that just blah blah blah.
Speaker 7 (17:46):
I think it's a model. But I think those days
have past. I think, I mean, I know that they're
doing this huge cut that was reported you know Bloomberg,
but I think the reality is that this is going
to have to be a breakup. They're going to have
to restructure the company. You're gonna have to ultimately sunset
different products, focus on some of the growth areas because
the reality is for Intel it look, you know about
(18:10):
dark days. I mean, if you look up disaster in
the dictionary, you'd see Intel's.
Speaker 2 (18:15):
Okay, my book of the Summer. I think maybe it's
book of the Year. I can't remember. It was chip war.
Is Intel competing against Taiwan's cell conductor? Are they competing
against some amorphous Chinese blob? We don't know who beat them?
Who defeated Intel?
Speaker 7 (18:32):
I mean AMD in video in video TSMC. I mean
when you think about Intel had the opportunity and just
go back to AI, the opportunity to go after AI,
go back to next generationships. And what they essentially did
was look, it's in different like they're like a typewriter
company mid nineties being like this internet window. This is
(18:57):
ridiculous that people and what happens to years later that
comings bankrupt.
Speaker 2 (19:01):
So I got yelled at it for that, look and
dog piles for real.
Speaker 7 (19:06):
But but that but that's really that's the sad thing
that's happened Intel. And look, yeah, obviously have a new CEO.
But this is a very you know, it's really the
collapse of a of a U S iicon.
Speaker 2 (19:18):
Ask a question, Mike Robinson. Cones are hurting, My eyes
are hurting folks.
Speaker 5 (19:23):
Hey, just a red headline crossing the tape there, Tom,
I want to get that out. Boeing first quarter negative
just a free cash flow two point two nine billion
and the estimate was three point four billion. So better
on the free cash lit story for our friends at
Boweing and stock us up about five percent here free
market to.
Speaker 7 (19:38):
Iron and talking Boeing and I and but Boeing and
Intel in the same.
Speaker 6 (19:42):
Sense exactly exactly.
Speaker 5 (19:43):
We got Apple, We've got Amazon, we got Microsoft out
with erning nels a week.
Speaker 3 (19:48):
What are you looking for? Is it driven by tariffs?
Speaker 6 (19:50):
Is an AI?
Speaker 5 (19:51):
What's the the what's driving tech these days?
Speaker 7 (19:55):
Look, the reality is that I expect basically new guide
into some crazy.
Speaker 6 (19:59):
Cowy odd guy.
Speaker 7 (20:01):
But when you look at a Apple, it comes down
like if these tariffs get them de escalation, the story
massively changes, as we've talked about, because then iPhone seventeen
comes out the AI store. You think about from a
hyperscale perspective in terms of capacs. Everyone's waiting, but this
book today, it's a pivotal moment, whether the walls are
(20:22):
caving in or whatever. And for attack a huge bullshit.
Speaker 2 (20:25):
I got forty two seconds. You've been on the floor
in China where they make apple stuff. Can Americans do that?
We got funny videos, snarky videos out on Twitter of
people Americans sitting there making iPhones and people are laughing.
This is not funny. You're an expert at this. Can
(20:45):
you transfer that manufacturing discipline to Illinois?
Speaker 7 (20:49):
I've said from the beginning it's impossible, because of the
nature of the IP in the supply chain, the nature
of the web force there when you're in Taiwan, when
you're China. And that's why I've said from the beginning.
We've told me on the show last three weeks, fairy
tale that that's going to happen again.
Speaker 6 (21:07):
If you want a.
Speaker 7 (21:07):
Thirty five hundred dollar iPhone, let's build them in the
Jersey of Manhattan. But the reality is, we see no
way that that happens. I'm not saying onshoin King happen,
but that is a fairy tale. And that's why the
market has just reacted.
Speaker 6 (21:19):
The way it has.
Speaker 2 (21:20):
Yeah, after thought, just woke up and she emailed and
she said, can you ask mister Ives if you can
get us Taylor. She thinks I'd look good.
Speaker 7 (21:28):
In a I've told you pinks your color. But and
I'm glad there.
Speaker 2 (21:33):
Is a New York Taylor.
Speaker 7 (21:35):
This is actually Taiwan. But the point is like what,
but I'm glad. Keenes finally on the train did a
clear customs.
Speaker 2 (21:43):
Thank you so much, particularly the comments there on Intel.
Speaker 1 (21:45):
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Corplay and Android
Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen
live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,
Just Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 2 (22:03):
We're pointing direct now with one of our favorite people,
Christopher Criscenti is with the MAI Capital Management. Someone that's
looking I would say, all in all for the growthiness
in value and his world has turned upside down. What's
the value of cash now? You say in your research
note you were trained on this to go from equities. Oh,
(22:26):
I think I'll buy bonds, but it's priced down, yield up,
so where do you.
Speaker 8 (22:32):
Hide, tom That's a great question for this particular market,
that there really has been no place to hide. We
were glad to have the cash that we had. The
interesting thing about that this, though, is with the market
down fifteen percent, we're actually not buying the dips. You know,
we love value opportunities, and typically this would be one.
We just can't do the math because we just can't
(22:54):
build models because the future is so uncertain. If you're
Mary Bara, are you going to build a fact, You're
gonna wait. Are're gonna hire people?
Speaker 7 (23:02):
You're gonna wait.
Speaker 8 (23:03):
And so even if the tariffs went away tomorrow, I
think there's been enough of this paralysis in the system
that I'm relatively confident will be in a recession by
the end of the year.
Speaker 5 (23:14):
So, I mean a lot of folks are suggesting kind
of where you are that even if they pull back
tariffs to some degree, which it appears to the rhetoric
is moving that way at least today. I guess so
at this hour that some fundamental damage has been done,
whether it's supply chains, confidence in US economy, confidence on
a part of the consumer executives.
Speaker 8 (23:35):
Well, you know, we've taken eighty years to build a
system which were we screwed a little bit? Yeah, we were,
but did we benefit from it? Look Paul, thirty five
years ago, twelve of the top twenty five companies in
the world were American. Now twenty two of them are.
It's hard to argue that this terribly skewed against us.
So when you monkey with that, it causes uncertainty. But
(23:58):
uncertainty is a nice vague war. What you're gonna see
you within the next two months is a pause in
corporate earnings growth. And that's what's really going to hurt
the market because it's time is you know, Ben Graham said,
like in the short term, it's a voting booth, but
in a long term, the market is a weighing machine,
and what it weighs is corporate earnings, and corporate earnings
are going to start to face that the estimates have
(24:18):
already come down a bunch.
Speaker 3 (24:19):
And I think that's just the beginning.
Speaker 2 (24:21):
You come into this with a whole twisted resume of
an actual legit, massive corporate law career, and one day
you decided that you like the four accounting statements better
and you need to see it and all that, But
the heart of the matter is Cris CASANTI, should we
change our retirement plans, our allocation, or even our hopes
(24:42):
of a time worn.
Speaker 3 (24:43):
Not not at all time.
Speaker 6 (24:44):
Not at all times.
Speaker 8 (24:45):
And as any good financial advisor will tell you, you prepare
for this moment years before. You have a diversified portfolio.
And by the way, if I'm right and there is
a recession, generally the market falls twenty five to thirty
five percent in those case. It's very broad range, but
just generally. And we're more than halfway there already. So now,
(25:05):
pretty soon, if this gets worse, as I suspect it will,
we'll start looking for the opportunities and then as things
get more certain, we'll be able to do the math.
I think the math will be worse than we thought
it was going to be, but then we'll be able
to step in. So you know, the cycle completes itself again.
Speaker 2 (25:21):
You know, Chris, I look at this in value in growthiness?
Is the mag seven growthness broken?
Speaker 8 (25:26):
I don't think so, Tom, I mean, the mag seven
isn't monolithic. I would I thought the Tesla numbers were
terrible yesterday, so that may be broken. We'll see.
Speaker 6 (25:36):
They need to do some new models.
Speaker 8 (25:37):
But the Amazon model's not broken, the Apple models not broken.
They clearly have head winds, but the storm will pass
one way or another. These are very dynamic companies that
can adapt to this stuff. It's just you know, we
got to redo the math, and the math isn't going
to look as good as we thought it would two
months ago.
Speaker 5 (25:53):
So, I mean, it's it seems like this market wants
to move higher. I mean, lack of tweets or anything
positive on the Twitter verse seems to move this market
materially higher.
Speaker 8 (26:03):
And Paul, that's not a surprise. I mean, it was
so over sold, and I would expect over the next
couple of weeks we may get a trade dealer two
and then that will be a catalyst for movement higher.
But I again, in the long term, it's a weighing machine.
What's going to happen to earning That's what we can't
take our eye off the ball.
Speaker 5 (26:20):
Yeah, we still have eight or nine percent earnings growth
this year, maybe eleven or twelve percent earnings growth next year.
You think there's downside to those numbers?
Speaker 8 (26:28):
Oh yeah, because a month ago you would have said
we've got thirteen percent earnings growth. Because you're now it's
down to eight, and I will just about guarantee you
if we have this conversation in June, it'll be considerably
lower than that.
Speaker 2 (26:37):
We'll see. How will corporations a depth you.
Speaker 6 (26:40):
Know, Tom the way they usually do.
Speaker 8 (26:41):
They'll lay people off, they'll postpone capital expenditures.
Speaker 6 (26:47):
Bring good forward.
Speaker 2 (26:48):
An along's got us with a five percent unemployment rate
out there somewhere. I haven't hit anybody model six percent yet,
but you get claims what Paul three hundred thousand, Yeah,
to eighty thousand whatever. You get the unemployment rate to go,
the Fed does what the what mister Trump wants them
to do. They begin a rate cutting cycle. The system
heals or is it just broken?
Speaker 8 (27:10):
Well's how the problem is that tariff news has kind
of pulled forward. Well, first we have some strong sales
up front, but we haven't gotten to the earnings downturn yet,
so we can't fast forward this recession. It's going to happen.
The market will drop what it's going to drop. I mean,
it's going to happen more probably than not. So yeah,
(27:31):
there's ways to come out of it. But I suspect
equity prices will be lower, when when those ways you
have to be employed.
Speaker 2 (27:38):
Chris CONSENTI thank you for them, coup.
Speaker 1 (27:40):
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto
with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live
on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just
say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 2 (27:58):
NCK morroy Is is truly we got a huge response
when he's on. He's with a Lobo Institute.
Speaker 6 (28:03):
He has public.
Speaker 2 (28:04):
Service to the nation, an extended career with the United
States Marines. You know, he's a former coach at USA Boxing.
Speaker 6 (28:11):
Really he does it all.
Speaker 2 (28:13):
Joining us now from Montana. Mcnallwy mcka. I want to
pause for a moment here. You're in Montana, and you know,
the East Coast view of the military maybe goes distant
to Virginia Beach to talk about the Navy. Maybe they
get up to Army Navy at Philadelphia. The hallmark of
my ute was a Strategic Air Command at the three
(28:36):
hundred thirty Forest Wing in the middle of nowhere in Montana.
That's the backbone, not a bunch of offices at the
Pentagon and your Defense department now is under not complete collapse,
but huge controversy with the Secretary of Defense.
Speaker 6 (28:53):
How does that affect the Air.
Speaker 2 (28:55):
Force in Montana or the Navy in San Diego with.
Speaker 9 (29:00):
You guys, I mean, ultimately, the military is going to
carry on regardless of the issues with this civilian leadership
and the Pentagon. That said, it really does reflect on
who is in charge when you have this level of
resignations and terminations. I haven't seen it. I don't think
anybody has seen it in this state, and that does
(29:22):
I think have when it comes to the line, you know, soldier,
sail or airman, marine, confidence in the leadership to see
that is not a good thing. But I do think
we are still in good hands. The chain of command
is strong, That's why they have it that way in
the military, and we can certainly amend all the important
positions that.
Speaker 2 (29:41):
We have mcmulroy. Then if it hasn't filtered down to
the troops, are we ready to defend the nation? Now?
I mean, is this a properly budgeted defense department, a
budgeted Pentagon?
Speaker 9 (29:55):
So I do think it is. There us talk about
increasing the actual overall expense of the Defense Department, probably
to try to make these giant leaps and technology that
we really need to to stay far above what we
call it the offset of our adversaries, and I think
the military is adjusting to that. So I don't want
(30:16):
to give people the false, in my opinion, the false
impression that somehow the military itself is in disarray. I
do think it's important to have a solid chain of
command it and the Secretary of Defense, of course, is
in that chain of command. So there needs to be
a lot of changes at the top, certainly the way
we handle classified information. But I think it's important for
(30:37):
Americans to understand that the military is fully capable of
defending the United States here and abroad, even with this
level of what's being described as chaos.
Speaker 5 (30:48):
So Mick, I mean, I guess the latest news for
Defense Secretary of Pete Hegseth has been the disclosure that
he has I guess, shared sensitive details about impending US
attacks on houthy militants on an unsecured commercial chat platform.
Speaker 7 (31:04):
Is that a big deal?
Speaker 5 (31:05):
Is this warranted this concern?
Speaker 9 (31:07):
It is a big deal. The reason why it's called
unauthorized is because you're not allowed legally to share classified information,
and if the reports are correct, these are specific attack plans, time, place,
and manner of how. In this case, the US Navy
was going to carry out aerial strikes against the Houthies.
(31:29):
So this is very sensitive information. I think anybody can
understand that if this were somehow to get to our
adversaries like Russia, they could give it to Iran, they
could give it to the Houthis, and then they would
know essentially how to defend themselves against incoming attacks. So
it's super sensitive. In addition to that, using the wrong platform,
(31:50):
at least reportedly, people that were in this dat did
not have all of the necessary security requirements and a
need to know. Essentially that you could just look at
who's listed. They had no reason to know this, So
this would be something that if you were a private,
seaman and airman, you would likely be removed immediately, an
(32:13):
investigation investigated under the Uniform Code of Military Justice.
Speaker 2 (32:17):
Mister mulroy's with a Lobo Institute and we thank him
for being with us.
Speaker 1 (32:28):
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto
with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us
live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg Terminal.
Speaker 2 (32:42):
We're going to walk forward, stagger forward to the newspapers
would do this with Lisa, Alisa, what do you have?
Speaker 10 (32:47):
Okay, so we all know professional baseball players, right, it's
all about the swagger, the style. But the Wall Street
Journal says it's actually trickling down to Little league. So parents,
moms and dads are spending bidden bucks talking about sliding mits.
You know the professional pros wear. Yeah, I don't know
about the sliding mets, but they start around fifty bucks.
But now parents are buying them for the cake.
Speaker 2 (33:09):
Mom.
Speaker 3 (33:09):
Yes, you know this stuff.
Speaker 10 (33:11):
We don't do the sliding mits. We do like the
elbow guards. We'll do those like that kind of thing.
But what they're also doing is these crazy colored batting
gloves hello Bruce Bolt, arm sleeves that we do, the
crazy colors, expensive sunglasses, hello Oakley. Yes, fancy helmets too,
on showers.
Speaker 2 (33:29):
We come like ice hockey where you have to sell
the third child, Dude, you do, and.
Speaker 10 (33:34):
It's it's all for these fancy things.
Speaker 5 (33:36):
You can go with regular Well, well they have to
upset watch SEC softball sometimes because I love the pictures.
Speaker 3 (33:41):
I can't believe how Yes, but they all were.
Speaker 5 (33:44):
Amazing makeup and the hair, and it's about the hair,
the hair, and it's unbelievable.
Speaker 10 (33:50):
I mean, but that's what it's about.
Speaker 2 (33:52):
The look.
Speaker 5 (33:53):
Yeah, okay, two, So that's what it is.
Speaker 10 (33:55):
Custom fielding gloves. I mean, I know my daughter has
a pink and white one with the putter. You can
flag on it like it's itit's crazy, but you do.
Speaker 2 (34:04):
I think she's taken over the Is there something else
you'd like to mention about the third summer camp you're
going to?
Speaker 10 (34:12):
You can't flight plates and.
Speaker 6 (34:18):
Thank you?
Speaker 7 (34:21):
Okay, but that's what it is.
Speaker 10 (34:23):
They're actually they're blaming the pros because they're saying the
MLB switch their will so now they're allowed to wear
the colorful things.
Speaker 2 (34:30):
It's a jackocracy. It's the mother's fault.
Speaker 7 (34:33):
It's the mom's fault.
Speaker 2 (34:34):
It's the mom's fault. Next.
Speaker 10 (34:36):
Okay, Oh, here you go, Tom, this one's for you.
Some Gen z ers and millennials are still opting to
live with mom and dad, so a lot of more
the kids are are living with the parents for longer,
so gen Z, you know, thirteen to twenty eight, so
twenty eight, and then you have millennials twenty eight to
forty three. So just to give you an idea of
who we're talking about, they're starting to live with mom
and dad longer. It's a Pew research, you know, center analysis,
(34:58):
and they say the biggest place places where this is
happening Texas, Florida, California, where jobs are kind of hard
wages or maybe not enough in some areas, and there's
a gender gap too. So it turns out that the
boat well men are living with mom and dad longer
twenty percent a paired to compare with fifteen percent for
the females who go off on their own.
Speaker 2 (35:19):
Epidemic in Europe, it's completely preponderant in Europe. Yeah, like
I would say it's a majority. I don't get it.
I have varies. I got to be careful what they
say here on radio.
Speaker 10 (35:30):
But you know, I just it's there, right, it is
it is, And they say it is getting better, like
it's dropped in recent years, but it's still above like
the historic clothes.
Speaker 2 (35:41):
That way, we go to Paul Sweeney, who is the
only person I know in the surveillance universe whose children
are all employed.
Speaker 6 (35:49):
Yeah, what's the bixis want? I went from six bedrooms
to two.
Speaker 10 (35:55):
Making sure they're not coming exactly right.
Speaker 6 (35:57):
The governor of New Jersey, you know, so you can
exactly right.
Speaker 10 (36:01):
So one more quickly quickly, Yes, if you've been to
the airport lately, the latest thing now are rooftop decks.
This is happening at a lot. Yeah, they're doing these
outdoor spaces. So a lot of airports are stepping up
their game.
Speaker 6 (36:13):
Loa Guardia's Terminal B.
Speaker 10 (36:15):
They're gonna have that new Capital one landing lounge is
gonna have the outdoor terrace. But we're talking about not
even the lounges, but regular airport like four green terraces
at Pittsburgh International Airport are coming.
Speaker 5 (36:25):
Well to get one at the outdoors California and my
kids when they're little, we can get like lunch and
watch the planes. But that's Parmeult, California.
Speaker 3 (36:33):
It's not LaGuardia.
Speaker 2 (36:34):
Correct.
Speaker 10 (36:35):
They do have the heaters and everything kind of set
up for that, but it's just like the new thing,
like they're upping their game.
Speaker 2 (36:42):
Lisa, thank you so much, Lisa Matteo. There are the newspapers.
Speaker 1 (36:46):
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,
and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday,
seven to ten am Easter and on bloomberg dot com,
the iHeartRadio tune in, and the Bloomberg Business app. You
can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and
(37:06):
always on the Bloomberg Terminal
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg
Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern
on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.
Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch
(00:25):
us live on YouTube.
Speaker 2 (00:27):
Everything we do, folks here is about a conversation with
people with breadth. There are few in the Western world
with a breadth of finance, like Cuba and Steinas. I'm
not going to bore you with a resume. He wandered
by a school named Oxford a few years ago, did
some serious work with Bank of England and added tour
(00:47):
duty at Morgan Stanley. He is definitive on our financial system.
Tim Adams Scott Bessent ten am, what's a question you
would ask a secretary treasurer?
Speaker 3 (00:59):
Wow, thanks to having me on look.
Speaker 4 (01:01):
One conversation I'm hearing which doesn't come out in the
press much is about the strain on cash flow for
small business.
Speaker 3 (01:08):
You know, it's a huge topic for private equity and
for banks.
Speaker 4 (01:11):
Right, Let's imagine you put in a ten million order
in for toys. You now have to pay twenty four
million dollars if they come from China, you simply don't
have that cash flow. So my question would be, how
worried are you about small business not being able to
stock their shelves?
Speaker 2 (01:26):
Okay, folks, you flunk this in a CFA exam. I've
done and I've enjoyed it. Working capital, and this is
to go into the way a business runs. There's a
thing called the cash conversion cycle. Part. Did you memorize
that that was with the three ratio and the five ratio?
Do plat formula que Vestin is your expert at this?
(01:46):
When you see terror of adjustments, I don't understand how
you go from three percent to ten percent or one
hundred percent and your world blows up. I mean that's
where we are right.
Speaker 4 (01:58):
Well, look, I don't think any of us have seen
anything like this before. I mean I think I wrote
a bit about the Nixon shock where obviously Nixon did
impose a ten percent tariff for four months, for four months,
but I guess the markets can't stand that, you know,
wouldn't tolerate four months here and that did is you
know that did lead to product shortages and to price
bikes because people couldn't forget cash conversion cycle?
Speaker 2 (02:20):
Do at Walmart. That's the heart of the matter.
Speaker 4 (02:23):
That probably Walmart's not my expertise, But if I think
about the conversations we're having, the focus is predictlarly around
retailers small businesses who just don't have the cash buffer.
If your Walmart, clearly you're really large, you're very sophisticated,
you do have big cash buffers. But if you're a
small business running from quarter to quarter to month to month,
how are you going to be able to pay two
(02:44):
point four times what you expected when you may be
worried about not a pubby able to pass it on.
So what we're picking up is people trying to wriggle
out of their orders if they can, and at least
not renew those orders. That's the conversation the Finance is having,
which I don't see enough in the main impress yet.
Speaker 5 (03:01):
To the extent that the President in this team are
walking back some of this tariff rhetoric. Has some of
the damage already been done? Do you think are we
seeing in the system already just because of the rhetoric?
Speaker 4 (03:12):
So this is so I think this is what we
distinguished between like sort of the growth shock and then
kind of let's call it the more institutional shock, what
all the taboo questions which we wouldn't have asked in
the past, which now opened. I think in terms of growth,
it clearly has been a bit of a punch in
the gut for small business, which is the heartlands of America.
Larger business are clearly ducking and diving through this. If
I think about my area, thinking about the finance, finance, Look,
(03:35):
the volatility has actually been quite good for the investment
banks because I've been trading, yep. But the business confidence
that one section. But the lack of conder corporate confidence
is pushing deals to the right and certainly our conversations
as some firms think, actually the deal pick up now
is not till twenty twenty seven, not till twenty twenty seven.
Speaker 2 (03:55):
First, wow.
Speaker 5 (03:57):
Interesting. So I mean, I guess if nothing else, you know,
we've this a million times before. The markets don't like uncertainty.
But we're starting to see it in the survey data,
whether it's the University of Michigan data or that you know,
the pmis it's out there, right, I mean, it's not
in the hard data. Maybe the FED looks like but
we certainly see it in some of the other software data.
Speaker 4 (04:17):
Yeah, I mean, look you I'm sure you know my
good friend Torston's looks great. On's trying to slice andize this.
But if you look at you know ships coming into
La or elsewhere about the stocking that they're down by
a third to a half, that's clearly a sign of
stress coming into the system. No, look, I mean at
the data will come through, but the FED will need
to be very data to well. Could always be data dependent,
(04:38):
but it will be the historic data. Markets are clearly
going to move way faster to.
Speaker 2 (04:41):
Von steinas with US folks, Oliver Wyman can't see the
importance of this for Global Wall Street even more important
in fifty minutes, Scott besn't with Tim Adams in Washington,
hugely anticipated. Okay, you mentioned Torsten Slock, your Apollo management.
You want to go out a choir, you get the
Deutsche b brain power of doctor Slock. Wonderful. The bottom line,
(05:04):
and this is Paul's world, is I don't buy for
a minute. Everything's wonderful and private equity. What does an
adult like you do? What are the tea leaves, the
litmus paper, the measurements you're looking for for stresses in
private equity.
Speaker 3 (05:19):
It's a great question.
Speaker 4 (05:20):
Look, these are unbelievably entrepreneurial folk, and so they're trying
to sort of weave their way through this. Look, I
think the first and second line is really about the
order books. Has the sales come down, whether I've got
highly leveraged companies trying to forensically work through that. So
I think it's about cash conservation and it's about getting
a cost down. So I'm already picking up people saying
(05:42):
to all their management teams, have you thought about a
cost round? What are you doing about that? So that's one,
But on the other side in credit land, they're actually
people trying to look this as an opportunity and actually
trying to buy in.
Speaker 3 (05:53):
Some of the credits.
Speaker 4 (05:54):
A wider spreads than we'd see in eight weeks.
Speaker 2 (05:56):
There's somebody selling those spreads totally. Do they book a
loss now.
Speaker 4 (06:03):
To again, it depends depends we turn about the private
Let's be clear, about sixty percent of the new influs
for the private market firms for the last two years
has been credit and overwhelming. As we've discussed before, that's
coming from the insurers. These are steady hands they want
to deploy in size, but obviously on the equity side
(06:24):
there more stress in the system. Bo was okay, g okay?
Speaker 5 (06:33):
So you have has Wall Street kind of with the
earning sessments out there? Has was Street adjusted to this
no uncertainty or do you still see downside risk to
earning sessments out there?
Speaker 3 (06:43):
God?
Speaker 4 (06:44):
Look, I think that Let's be clear. Everyone is struggling
to comprehend the range of scenarios. So to give you
a simple answer is just it's just inconceivable. I think
the like what are them the simpler moves, there's like
the overwhelming conclusion of this where we to to find
a better way to diversify your portfolio, and that at
the moment than one way trade is look more towards
(07:04):
Europe and Asia and look, European banks is stop twenty
five percent year today.
Speaker 3 (07:08):
Wow, you know, let's be clear, you.
Speaker 4 (07:10):
Know, and I know that may not be the place
that's now that's a smaller market for you, but I've
clearly on this side of the pond there are Look,
I think it comes back to how corporate confidence plays
out on the stress and the system and how quickly
the demonstration blinks. These are you know, complex questions which
you're dealing with every day.
Speaker 2 (07:30):
Sorry, this is this wheelhouse. Hugh Einstein is folks. You
know you got to start somewhere, and he started by
being the required fourteen page read every four or five
days in the European banks. I mean, I'm don't you, folks,
But Hugh doesn't understand. He's never used a Bloomberg. Here's
no clue. And the bottom line is I got JP
Morgan hitting the ball out of the park with a
priced book of two times in trading at one third
(07:53):
even after the twenty five percent rally is BMP Perry
Bar of Paris. I get the idea that the English,
the French, whatever, banks are off the mat, but do
they have the growthiness of America? I don't buy it.
Speaker 3 (08:08):
No.
Speaker 4 (08:09):
I toltally by that. So that's a that's a value trade,
not a growth trade. Look, I think the challenge here
is this is a growth shock and then somewhat of
an institutional shock. And I think all the financials I'm
talking to are working through reworking their plans, but they're
struggling to sort of be precise because they just don't
know how quickly the administration will blink on tariffs and
there for how how big a shock it is to
the system. But you're right, Tom, we we're Europe's value trade,
(08:33):
not a growth trade.
Speaker 5 (08:34):
So but you we have seen I guess as recently
as kind of late last year, very early this year,
international money, none US money, was coming into the US
markets in waves. I was really noticeable people were seeing
in fund flows. Now that seems to have reversed a
little bit and we're now seeing funds go back into
(08:55):
your back into other parts of the world. Is that
a short term trade or is that something morris able?
Do you think that those funds back out?
Speaker 4 (09:02):
My sense from the international asset owners is that they
want to continue to repatriate, and I think that's partly
a concerned tactical concern about the market situation, but it's
also about weaker dollar. But also there's institutional pressure to
deploy at home. So if you're the Maple LX, sorry,
the largest date Canadian funds, they're looking to try and
help the home by the home building spree that my
(09:24):
old boss, Prime Minster Karney is going to be doing,
alongside many other interatives in Europe. Some of the big
pension funds are looking to help fund the defense spending
spree about to happen, So all of them are thinking
strategically they need to have more money back at home.
Now that's at the margin, but it's definitely more money
coming back.
Speaker 2 (09:40):
Well, let's rip up the script and an extended conversation
with Hugh von Steins of Oliver Wine. You know Dan Tannemba,
I'm so brilliant and sanctions. They've really put together a
huge team at Oliver Wyman and we're thrilled he could
join us in our studios today in New York. So
then let's rip up the strip on this and go
sixty thousand feet Mark Kearney. Uh, you know there are
(10:01):
other worthies that are driving our mister Powell, the others
that are driving our financial system. The heart of the
matter is the renominal GDP. Finally, back almost to Conrad
add in our and Viilli Brandt, we got to have
a Germany with pop Do you buy it?
Speaker 4 (10:20):
I So I think this is the spending of probably
up to a trillion euros about rearmament, defense and just
quite frankly, resilience is a real game change.
Speaker 6 (10:33):
I think they're going to execute.
Speaker 4 (10:35):
But I think there will be slower to execute them.
And the one era we've chattered back for is it's
not just about government spending. You need private sector spending.
And the kind of breadth and depth of capital markets
in Europe are still not the deep depth you want.
And we need the plumbers. We need the plumbers to
try and get the system to work much more effectively.
The let's say, let's say, oh no, if you look
(10:58):
at the States, there is four trillion of US insurance
money is in the market to fund the system. European
insurers have got straight jacketed about how they can put
money into equities, into venture capital.
Speaker 3 (11:12):
Private equity is the heart of the.
Speaker 2 (11:15):
Matter, folks with he framed far smarter than me, or
the absolute heart of the matter. Can Europe can the
old world? Can Rubinian Taileeb's Old world equitize? That's the
heart of the matter.
Speaker 3 (11:27):
I think it's right.
Speaker 4 (11:28):
Well, it's equitized and providing risk capital because it's really
about its venture capital.
Speaker 3 (11:33):
It's growing small businesses.
Speaker 4 (11:34):
It's how do you do all these you know, defense
tech startups. We need a range of risk capital, I mean,
and the way we the markets it's improving, but we
need to turbo charge it from here.
Speaker 2 (11:46):
I had a conversation with leguard Is, Trade Minister of
France ready twenty one years ago, and we were talking
the same thing we're talking to human.
Speaker 6 (11:54):
Steve's exactly right now.
Speaker 5 (11:55):
So Hugh, in terms of Europe kind of reinvesting in
their infrastructure, maybe in their military, there's I guess what
I've heard is Okay, Germany can do it. Poland probably
could do it just because they had been doing it
for a while because given their geographic location relative the Russia.
But can Spain do it? Can Italy do it? Can
Portugal do it? I mean did they have the wherewithal
to do that?
Speaker 4 (12:17):
So there's a fiscal question, and then it's kind of
like do they have the right ecosystem, the skills, the expertise.
And you can see that actually, because Europe hasn't been
investing in defense, there's been a real aerospace is good
because there's a whole cluster around in the south of France.
Actually you should go and visit to what one time
around you know where you know the aerospace industry is
coming from. But elsewhere in terms of drones and some
(12:38):
of the other areas it's going to come. Look, the
fiscal challenges are huge, and that's the But in a way,
what we've seen here is that the fiscal spending has
been part of the US exceptionalism. The real booster to
spending here has come also from the government perse right now, wrongly.
I think we're getting to get some of that in
cour Europe. Whether we're going to go enough to justify
the evaluations, it is a bit tougher question un seen us.
Speaker 2 (13:00):
Thank you so much.
Speaker 1 (13:07):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live
weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on
Applecarplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app, or
watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 2 (13:20):
Joining us now the fun for lunch Bunch crew Lisa
Matteo and Daniel Lives of of Red Bush. Here and
a bright pink for those of you on radio. You're
lucky wearing bright pink today? Comment down, Dan, is this
a corduroy? Look you're way it is?
Speaker 6 (13:36):
It's it's corduroy. Will I mean a little? It could
be a little even Sweeney influenced. It's it's Lisa.
Speaker 5 (13:43):
You can't see me wearing that, can you?
Speaker 2 (13:46):
I could see him walking into a showroom at Tesla's showroom. Yes,
and I'll take one of those.
Speaker 6 (13:50):
I'll take Paul.
Speaker 2 (13:51):
Why don't you leave it up with his worship Dan.
Speaker 5 (13:53):
We had Tesla report earnings last night. We had mister
Elon Musk on the earnings call. The earnings were very disappointing.
Speaker 3 (13:59):
You have to stock is trading hired? Why is the
stock trading hired?
Speaker 2 (14:02):
Here?
Speaker 7 (14:03):
I mean numbers were basically took a back seat. We
already knew was a disaster recorder the reality. This was
the moment of truth from Musk.
Speaker 6 (14:12):
To basically what I've used.
Speaker 7 (14:13):
It's an off ram to Trump Whitehouse and doage, and
that's essentially what he did. And he took a major
step back on doage, says one two days a week.
I think there's the beginning of the end there and
going to recommit.
Speaker 6 (14:24):
His CEO of Tessa.
Speaker 7 (14:26):
Look, the reality is, and we've talked about on the show,
brand damage was at a point he had to read
the room and if he didn't make this decision now,
it would have been dark days ahead. And that's why
the stock's going to be up because now Tessa got
back at CEO.
Speaker 5 (14:41):
Now Tesla's in a new world of competition. It just
looks to me as a you know, a lay person.
Here China is taking over the evy market globally with
the exception of the United States.
Speaker 3 (14:53):
How does Tessa.
Speaker 5 (14:54):
Deal with by D and others?
Speaker 7 (14:56):
Look, I don't at first, I don't view as you
know that it's you know, you can't have success from
Tesla as well as Boyd. I don't have view as
zero some gunn. But look, Tessa has work cut out
for them. I mean they they have to have a
new vehicle that comes out. You have to have the
refresh in terms of model why and the reality is
(15:16):
China's forty five percent of out So that is the
hearts and lungs of Tesla.
Speaker 6 (15:21):
But that's also why it's so important.
Speaker 7 (15:23):
There's only one person that could engineer this turnaround in China.
Speaker 5 (15:27):
It's Musk and I think Elon is probably the best
I've ever seen of kind of maybe Jeff Bezos as well,
kind of redirecting investor sentiment where he wants it to go.
And I think he's saying, don't look at me as
a metal bender car company, look at me as an
AI company, robotics company.
Speaker 6 (15:44):
Is that valid?
Speaker 7 (15:45):
I mean, we believe the core value of the future
of Tesla is autonomous and robotics. And obviously Keen will
being there on supervised fist in Austin in June. I
know he's getting ready. And look, I think this is
just the beginning of what we're going to see in
terms of autonomous. That to me is a core value.
Speaker 2 (16:04):
You're not gonna do autonomous on fifty eighth Street in
New York City. I mean, it's just not gonna happen.
Speaker 7 (16:09):
Look, I truly believe over the next three, four or
five years that autonomous is going to start to represent five, ten,
fifteen percent on Really.
Speaker 2 (16:19):
Do I say, I don't agree, but he's wearing pink
I don't agree. Okay, let's go to Intel. We got
a major story out this morning. This has gone worldwide
instantly on Bloomberg. This is Intel down sixty six percent
from the peak, and it's just simple, brilliant reporting by
Jane Lenny Lee and Ian King. They're Gonnaly have twenty
percent of their staff the annual report of twenty nineteen.
(16:42):
We are a world leader, our vision, our commitment to
corporate responsibility and sustainability. What happened this thing was iconic
Dunda da du.
Speaker 7 (16:54):
I mean, just think about it. Go back to where
Nvidio was twenty nineteen, twenty twenty May. If you look
from gals Singer, it's just the whole corporate structure there,
the red tape. I mean Intel, it's really a business
case study for what happens when you go as.
Speaker 2 (17:09):
A CFA business case study it is.
Speaker 7 (17:12):
It's what happened when you're on the treadmill.
Speaker 6 (17:14):
You think no one's going.
Speaker 7 (17:15):
To catch you, Okay, Apple, Apple makes their own chips
because ultimately that they box out Intel.
Speaker 2 (17:23):
I am a Codec brattfo from Rochester. I lived this
with Codec. The marketing guys take over, the slick guys
take over, and the company goes down the tank until
you're bringing culp from ge or Danaher to ballot out
their gross strategy. Is they got to get back to
basics in an engineer driven company. Is that a legitimate
(17:43):
model or is that just blah blah blah.
Speaker 7 (17:46):
I think it's a model. But I think those days
have past. I think, I mean, I know that they're
doing this huge cut that was reported you know Bloomberg,
but I think the reality is that this is going
to have to be a breakup. They're going to have
to restructure the company. You're gonna have to ultimately sunset
different products, focus on some of the growth areas because
the reality is for Intel it look, you know about
(18:10):
dark days. I mean, if you look up disaster in
the dictionary, you'd see Intel's.
Speaker 2 (18:15):
Okay, my book of the Summer. I think maybe it's
book of the Year. I can't remember. It was chip war.
Is Intel competing against Taiwan's cell conductor? Are they competing
against some amorphous Chinese blob? We don't know who beat them?
Who defeated Intel?
Speaker 7 (18:32):
I mean AMD in video in video TSMC. I mean
when you think about Intel had the opportunity and just
go back to AI, the opportunity to go after AI,
go back to next generationships. And what they essentially did
was look, it's in different like they're like a typewriter
company mid nineties being like this internet window. This is
(18:57):
ridiculous that people and what happens to years later that
comings bankrupt.
Speaker 2 (19:01):
So I got yelled at it for that, look and
dog piles for real.
Speaker 7 (19:06):
But but that but that's really that's the sad thing
that's happened Intel. And look, yeah, obviously have a new CEO.
But this is a very you know, it's really the
collapse of a of a U S iicon.
Speaker 2 (19:18):
Ask a question, Mike Robinson. Cones are hurting, My eyes
are hurting folks.
Speaker 5 (19:23):
Hey, just a red headline crossing the tape there, Tom,
I want to get that out. Boeing first quarter negative
just a free cash flow two point two nine billion
and the estimate was three point four billion. So better
on the free cash lit story for our friends at
Boweing and stock us up about five percent here free
market to.
Speaker 7 (19:38):
Iron and talking Boeing and I and but Boeing and
Intel in the same.
Speaker 6 (19:42):
Sense exactly exactly.
Speaker 5 (19:43):
We got Apple, We've got Amazon, we got Microsoft out
with erning nels a week.
Speaker 3 (19:48):
What are you looking for? Is it driven by tariffs?
Speaker 6 (19:50):
Is an AI?
Speaker 5 (19:51):
What's the the what's driving tech these days?
Speaker 7 (19:55):
Look, the reality is that I expect basically new guide
into some crazy.
Speaker 6 (19:59):
Cowy odd guy.
Speaker 7 (20:01):
But when you look at a Apple, it comes down
like if these tariffs get them de escalation, the story
massively changes, as we've talked about, because then iPhone seventeen
comes out the AI store. You think about from a
hyperscale perspective in terms of capacs. Everyone's waiting, but this
book today, it's a pivotal moment, whether the walls are
(20:22):
caving in or whatever. And for attack a huge bullshit.
Speaker 2 (20:25):
I got forty two seconds. You've been on the floor
in China where they make apple stuff. Can Americans do that?
We got funny videos, snarky videos out on Twitter of
people Americans sitting there making iPhones and people are laughing.
This is not funny. You're an expert at this. Can
(20:45):
you transfer that manufacturing discipline to Illinois?
Speaker 7 (20:49):
I've said from the beginning it's impossible, because of the
nature of the IP in the supply chain, the nature
of the web force there when you're in Taiwan, when
you're China. And that's why I've said from the beginning.
We've told me on the show last three weeks, fairy
tale that that's going to happen again.
Speaker 6 (21:07):
If you want a.
Speaker 7 (21:07):
Thirty five hundred dollar iPhone, let's build them in the
Jersey of Manhattan. But the reality is, we see no
way that that happens. I'm not saying onshoin King happen,
but that is a fairy tale. And that's why the
market has just reacted.
Speaker 6 (21:19):
The way it has.
Speaker 2 (21:20):
Yeah, after thought, just woke up and she emailed and
she said, can you ask mister Ives if you can
get us Taylor. She thinks I'd look good.
Speaker 7 (21:28):
In a I've told you pinks your color. But and
I'm glad there.
Speaker 2 (21:33):
Is a New York Taylor.
Speaker 7 (21:35):
This is actually Taiwan. But the point is like what,
but I'm glad. Keenes finally on the train did a
clear customs.
Speaker 2 (21:43):
Thank you so much, particularly the comments there on Intel.
Speaker 1 (21:45):
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Corplay and Android
Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen
live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,
Just Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 2 (22:03):
We're pointing direct now with one of our favorite people,
Christopher Criscenti is with the MAI Capital Management. Someone that's
looking I would say, all in all for the growthiness
in value and his world has turned upside down. What's
the value of cash now? You say in your research
note you were trained on this to go from equities. Oh,
(22:26):
I think I'll buy bonds, but it's priced down, yield up,
so where do you.
Speaker 8 (22:32):
Hide, tom That's a great question for this particular market,
that there really has been no place to hide. We
were glad to have the cash that we had. The
interesting thing about that this, though, is with the market
down fifteen percent, we're actually not buying the dips. You know,
we love value opportunities, and typically this would be one.
We just can't do the math because we just can't
(22:54):
build models because the future is so uncertain. If you're
Mary Bara, are you going to build a fact, You're
gonna wait. Are're gonna hire people?
Speaker 7 (23:02):
You're gonna wait.
Speaker 8 (23:03):
And so even if the tariffs went away tomorrow, I
think there's been enough of this paralysis in the system
that I'm relatively confident will be in a recession by
the end of the year.
Speaker 5 (23:14):
So, I mean a lot of folks are suggesting kind
of where you are that even if they pull back
tariffs to some degree, which it appears to the rhetoric
is moving that way at least today. I guess so
at this hour that some fundamental damage has been done,
whether it's supply chains, confidence in US economy, confidence on
a part of the consumer executives.
Speaker 8 (23:35):
Well, you know, we've taken eighty years to build a
system which were we screwed a little bit? Yeah, we were,
but did we benefit from it? Look Paul, thirty five
years ago, twelve of the top twenty five companies in
the world were American. Now twenty two of them are.
It's hard to argue that this terribly skewed against us.
So when you monkey with that, it causes uncertainty. But
(23:58):
uncertainty is a nice vague war. What you're gonna see
you within the next two months is a pause in
corporate earnings growth. And that's what's really going to hurt
the market because it's time is you know, Ben Graham said,
like in the short term, it's a voting booth, but
in a long term, the market is a weighing machine,
and what it weighs is corporate earnings, and corporate earnings
are going to start to face that the estimates have
(24:18):
already come down a bunch.
Speaker 3 (24:19):
And I think that's just the beginning.
Speaker 2 (24:21):
You come into this with a whole twisted resume of
an actual legit, massive corporate law career, and one day
you decided that you like the four accounting statements better
and you need to see it and all that, But
the heart of the matter is Cris CASANTI, should we
change our retirement plans, our allocation, or even our hopes
(24:42):
of a time worn.
Speaker 3 (24:43):
Not not at all time.
Speaker 6 (24:44):
Not at all times.
Speaker 8 (24:45):
And as any good financial advisor will tell you, you prepare
for this moment years before. You have a diversified portfolio.
And by the way, if I'm right and there is
a recession, generally the market falls twenty five to thirty
five percent in those case. It's very broad range, but
just generally. And we're more than halfway there already. So now,
(25:05):
pretty soon, if this gets worse, as I suspect it will,
we'll start looking for the opportunities and then as things
get more certain, we'll be able to do the math.
I think the math will be worse than we thought
it was going to be, but then we'll be able
to step in. So you know, the cycle completes itself again.
Speaker 2 (25:21):
You know, Chris, I look at this in value in growthiness?
Is the mag seven growthness broken?
Speaker 8 (25:26):
I don't think so, Tom, I mean, the mag seven
isn't monolithic. I would I thought the Tesla numbers were
terrible yesterday, so that may be broken. We'll see.
Speaker 6 (25:36):
They need to do some new models.
Speaker 8 (25:37):
But the Amazon model's not broken, the Apple models not broken.
They clearly have head winds, but the storm will pass
one way or another. These are very dynamic companies that
can adapt to this stuff. It's just you know, we
got to redo the math, and the math isn't going
to look as good as we thought it would two
months ago.
Speaker 5 (25:53):
So, I mean, it's it seems like this market wants
to move higher. I mean, lack of tweets or anything
positive on the Twitter verse seems to move this market
materially higher.
Speaker 8 (26:03):
And Paul, that's not a surprise. I mean, it was
so over sold, and I would expect over the next
couple of weeks we may get a trade dealer two
and then that will be a catalyst for movement higher.
But I again, in the long term, it's a weighing machine.
What's going to happen to earning That's what we can't
take our eye off the ball.
Speaker 5 (26:20):
Yeah, we still have eight or nine percent earnings growth
this year, maybe eleven or twelve percent earnings growth next year.
You think there's downside to those numbers?
Speaker 8 (26:28):
Oh yeah, because a month ago you would have said
we've got thirteen percent earnings growth. Because you're now it's
down to eight, and I will just about guarantee you
if we have this conversation in June, it'll be considerably
lower than that.
Speaker 2 (26:37):
We'll see. How will corporations a depth you.
Speaker 6 (26:40):
Know, Tom the way they usually do.
Speaker 8 (26:41):
They'll lay people off, they'll postpone capital expenditures.
Speaker 6 (26:47):
Bring good forward.
Speaker 2 (26:48):
An along's got us with a five percent unemployment rate
out there somewhere. I haven't hit anybody model six percent yet,
but you get claims what Paul three hundred thousand, Yeah,
to eighty thousand whatever. You get the unemployment rate to go,
the Fed does what the what mister Trump wants them
to do. They begin a rate cutting cycle. The system
heals or is it just broken?
Speaker 8 (27:10):
Well's how the problem is that tariff news has kind
of pulled forward. Well, first we have some strong sales
up front, but we haven't gotten to the earnings downturn yet,
so we can't fast forward this recession. It's going to happen.
The market will drop what it's going to drop. I mean,
it's going to happen more probably than not. So yeah,
(27:31):
there's ways to come out of it. But I suspect
equity prices will be lower, when when those ways you
have to be employed.
Speaker 2 (27:38):
Chris CONSENTI thank you for them, coup.
Speaker 1 (27:40):
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto
with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live
on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just
say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 2 (27:58):
NCK morroy Is is truly we got a huge response
when he's on. He's with a Lobo Institute.
Speaker 6 (28:03):
He has public.
Speaker 2 (28:04):
Service to the nation, an extended career with the United
States Marines. You know, he's a former coach at USA Boxing.
Speaker 6 (28:11):
Really he does it all.
Speaker 2 (28:13):
Joining us now from Montana. Mcnallwy mcka. I want to
pause for a moment here. You're in Montana, and you know,
the East Coast view of the military maybe goes distant
to Virginia Beach to talk about the Navy. Maybe they
get up to Army Navy at Philadelphia. The hallmark of
my ute was a Strategic Air Command at the three
(28:36):
hundred thirty Forest Wing in the middle of nowhere in Montana.
That's the backbone, not a bunch of offices at the
Pentagon and your Defense department now is under not complete collapse,
but huge controversy with the Secretary of Defense.
Speaker 6 (28:53):
How does that affect the Air.
Speaker 2 (28:55):
Force in Montana or the Navy in San Diego with.
Speaker 9 (29:00):
You guys, I mean, ultimately, the military is going to
carry on regardless of the issues with this civilian leadership
and the Pentagon. That said, it really does reflect on
who is in charge when you have this level of
resignations and terminations. I haven't seen it. I don't think
anybody has seen it in this state, and that does
(29:22):
I think have when it comes to the line, you know, soldier,
sail or airman, marine, confidence in the leadership to see
that is not a good thing. But I do think
we are still in good hands. The chain of command
is strong, That's why they have it that way in
the military, and we can certainly amend all the important
positions that.
Speaker 2 (29:41):
We have mcmulroy. Then if it hasn't filtered down to
the troops, are we ready to defend the nation? Now?
I mean, is this a properly budgeted defense department, a
budgeted Pentagon?
Speaker 9 (29:55):
So I do think it is. There us talk about
increasing the actual overall expense of the Defense Department, probably
to try to make these giant leaps and technology that
we really need to to stay far above what we
call it the offset of our adversaries, and I think
the military is adjusting to that. So I don't want
(30:16):
to give people the false, in my opinion, the false
impression that somehow the military itself is in disarray. I
do think it's important to have a solid chain of
command it and the Secretary of Defense, of course, is
in that chain of command. So there needs to be
a lot of changes at the top, certainly the way
we handle classified information. But I think it's important for
(30:37):
Americans to understand that the military is fully capable of
defending the United States here and abroad, even with this
level of what's being described as chaos.
Speaker 5 (30:48):
So Mick, I mean, I guess the latest news for
Defense Secretary of Pete Hegseth has been the disclosure that
he has I guess, shared sensitive details about impending US
attacks on houthy militants on an unsecured commercial chat platform.
Speaker 7 (31:04):
Is that a big deal?
Speaker 5 (31:05):
Is this warranted this concern?
Speaker 9 (31:07):
It is a big deal. The reason why it's called
unauthorized is because you're not allowed legally to share classified information,
and if the reports are correct, these are specific attack plans, time, place,
and manner of how. In this case, the US Navy
was going to carry out aerial strikes against the Houthies.
(31:29):
So this is very sensitive information. I think anybody can
understand that if this were somehow to get to our
adversaries like Russia, they could give it to Iran, they
could give it to the Houthis, and then they would
know essentially how to defend themselves against incoming attacks. So
it's super sensitive. In addition to that, using the wrong platform,
(31:50):
at least reportedly, people that were in this dat did
not have all of the necessary security requirements and a
need to know. Essentially that you could just look at
who's listed. They had no reason to know this, So
this would be something that if you were a private,
seaman and airman, you would likely be removed immediately, an
(32:13):
investigation investigated under the Uniform Code of Military Justice.
Speaker 2 (32:17):
Mister mulroy's with a Lobo Institute and we thank him
for being with us.
Speaker 1 (32:28):
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto
with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us
live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg Terminal.
Speaker 2 (32:42):
We're going to walk forward, stagger forward to the newspapers
would do this with Lisa, Alisa, what do you have?
Speaker 10 (32:47):
Okay, so we all know professional baseball players, right, it's
all about the swagger, the style. But the Wall Street
Journal says it's actually trickling down to Little league. So parents,
moms and dads are spending bidden bucks talking about sliding mits.
You know the professional pros wear. Yeah, I don't know
about the sliding mets, but they start around fifty bucks.
But now parents are buying them for the cake.
Speaker 2 (33:09):
Mom.
Speaker 3 (33:09):
Yes, you know this stuff.
Speaker 10 (33:11):
We don't do the sliding mits. We do like the
elbow guards. We'll do those like that kind of thing.
But what they're also doing is these crazy colored batting
gloves hello Bruce Bolt, arm sleeves that we do, the
crazy colors, expensive sunglasses, hello Oakley. Yes, fancy helmets too,
on showers.
Speaker 2 (33:29):
We come like ice hockey where you have to sell
the third child, Dude, you do, and.
Speaker 10 (33:34):
It's it's all for these fancy things.
Speaker 5 (33:36):
You can go with regular Well, well they have to
upset watch SEC softball sometimes because I love the pictures.
Speaker 3 (33:41):
I can't believe how Yes, but they all were.
Speaker 5 (33:44):
Amazing makeup and the hair, and it's about the hair,
the hair, and it's unbelievable.
Speaker 10 (33:50):
I mean, but that's what it's about.
Speaker 2 (33:52):
The look.
Speaker 5 (33:53):
Yeah, okay, two, So that's what it is.
Speaker 10 (33:55):
Custom fielding gloves. I mean, I know my daughter has
a pink and white one with the putter. You can
flag on it like it's itit's crazy, but you do.
Speaker 2 (34:04):
I think she's taken over the Is there something else
you'd like to mention about the third summer camp you're
going to?
Speaker 10 (34:12):
You can't flight plates and.
Speaker 6 (34:18):
Thank you?
Speaker 7 (34:21):
Okay, but that's what it is.
Speaker 10 (34:23):
They're actually they're blaming the pros because they're saying the
MLB switch their will so now they're allowed to wear
the colorful things.
Speaker 2 (34:30):
It's a jackocracy. It's the mother's fault.
Speaker 7 (34:33):
It's the mom's fault.
Speaker 2 (34:34):
It's the mom's fault. Next.
Speaker 10 (34:36):
Okay, Oh, here you go, Tom, this one's for you.
Some Gen z ers and millennials are still opting to
live with mom and dad, so a lot of more
the kids are are living with the parents for longer,
so gen Z, you know, thirteen to twenty eight, so
twenty eight, and then you have millennials twenty eight to
forty three. So just to give you an idea of
who we're talking about, they're starting to live with mom
and dad longer. It's a Pew research, you know, center analysis,
(34:58):
and they say the biggest place places where this is
happening Texas, Florida, California, where jobs are kind of hard
wages or maybe not enough in some areas, and there's
a gender gap too. So it turns out that the
boat well men are living with mom and dad longer
twenty percent a paired to compare with fifteen percent for
the females who go off on their own.
Speaker 2 (35:19):
Epidemic in Europe, it's completely preponderant in Europe. Yeah, like
I would say it's a majority. I don't get it.
I have varies. I got to be careful what they
say here on radio.
Speaker 10 (35:30):
But you know, I just it's there, right, it is
it is, And they say it is getting better, like
it's dropped in recent years, but it's still above like
the historic clothes.
Speaker 2 (35:41):
That way, we go to Paul Sweeney, who is the
only person I know in the surveillance universe whose children
are all employed.
Speaker 6 (35:49):
Yeah, what's the bixis want? I went from six bedrooms
to two.
Speaker 10 (35:55):
Making sure they're not coming exactly right.
Speaker 6 (35:57):
The governor of New Jersey, you know, so you can
exactly right.
Speaker 10 (36:01):
So one more quickly quickly, Yes, if you've been to
the airport lately, the latest thing now are rooftop decks.
This is happening at a lot. Yeah, they're doing these
outdoor spaces. So a lot of airports are stepping up
their game.
Speaker 6 (36:13):
Loa Guardia's Terminal B.
Speaker 10 (36:15):
They're gonna have that new Capital one landing lounge is
gonna have the outdoor terrace. But we're talking about not
even the lounges, but regular airport like four green terraces
at Pittsburgh International Airport are coming.
Speaker 5 (36:25):
Well to get one at the outdoors California and my
kids when they're little, we can get like lunch and
watch the planes. But that's Parmeult, California.
Speaker 3 (36:33):
It's not LaGuardia.
Speaker 2 (36:34):
Correct.
Speaker 10 (36:35):
They do have the heaters and everything kind of set
up for that, but it's just like the new thing,
like they're upping their game.
Speaker 2 (36:42):
Lisa, thank you so much, Lisa Matteo. There are the newspapers.
Speaker 1 (36:46):
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,
and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday,
seven to ten am Easter and on bloomberg dot com,
the iHeartRadio tune in, and the Bloomberg Business app. You
can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and
(37:06):
always on the Bloomberg Terminal
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