October 3, 2025 • 39 mins
Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.
Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyOctober 3rd, 2025
Featuring:
1) Amy Wu Silverman, Head of Derivatives Strategy for RBC, joins for an extended discussion on the non-freakout market and how the government shutdown will affect market volatility. Investors are wagering that the billions pouring into the AI sector will translate into profits and extend gains in tech shares.
2) Claudia Sahm, Chief Economist at New Century Advisors, talks labor market and US economic health. Concerns are growing that valuations look overheated as spending has yet to translate into earnings.
3) Priya Misra, Core Plus Fund at JPMorgan Asset Management, joins to discuss the economic impact of the government shutdown and the path of the Fed easing cycle. Friday’s burst of new partnerships and potential deals came just a day after a share sale lifted OpenAI’s valuation to $500 billion. Stocks have climbed to successive record highs this year, with AI optimism adding to bullish momentum from prospects of monetary policy easing and resilient earnings.
4) Tiffany Wilding, Economist: North America at PIMCO, discusses Fed easing and when the tariff effects will bite.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg
Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern
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(00:25):
or watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 2 (00:27):
We're thrilled did Is Taylor drops here? Our surveillance Swift
correspondent Amy was Silverman joining us today. But the timing
you're so important, I'm not going to give you any
Taylor chat much today. Amy, She's had a derriv of
strategy RBC. What did do the cross moment say about
this moment for America?
Speaker 3 (00:48):
Well, look, the last time I came, Tom, we talked
a little bit about the left tail and the right tail,
and you know, part of our conversation was that I
still felt like investors were more worried about that right tail.
Speaker 4 (01:00):
Here we are with over.
Speaker 3 (01:01):
With markets at all time highs SKEW is relatively low.
You know, all the hedges that had been placed were
not monetized because the markets kept going up. And when
I talked to investors, they say, this just feels like
the most reluctant rally.
Speaker 2 (01:15):
Roman Friedman, NYU I think he's very controversial. In economics,
he would say the rehedge will kill you. Inside baseball,
we've had this bull market, the hedges weren't monetized. They
got to go out and rehedge. Can they rehedge opportunistically here?
Speaker 3 (01:35):
They certainly can. And of course, because everything's come in
from a volatility perspective, it's not that expensive. But the
reality is nobody's going to because markets are very short.
Speaker 5 (01:47):
Very I love it, yeah.
Speaker 3 (01:52):
Because because you know, when you're burned once twice, then
shame on you. And so you know, you see it
in some aspects of the market. You do see it
in goal, but you don't see it as much in
VIX and you don't see it as much in s
and p hedges because that concentration risk keeps pushing the
right tail to be more the fear than.
Speaker 6 (02:09):
The left hand.
Speaker 2 (02:09):
Can I editorialize from one Sweeney and Keene, we are
so lucky, we're not running.
Speaker 5 (02:14):
Money running out.
Speaker 6 (02:16):
So are your clients looking to buy protection or is
it or not? Because again I look at a VIX.
That's the only thing I kind of look at because
I'm simple and I don't see a lot of fear
out there, So what are you seeing on your desk?
Speaker 3 (02:27):
So I will tell you post Liberation Day, we did
have that big rally, and investors did hedge, and a
lot of it was longer term, so a lot of
it was for that September FOMC and then when that
came and went not in the direction they had hoped
from a hedging perspective, none of that premium was rolled.
What investors tell me right now is they're looking at
(02:48):
alternate venues, so that could be you know, call options
on gold. Even though that's run too, they at least
feel like it's a little bit less correlated. And then
what they're waiting for is and I'm interested in what
consensus is here, but I think if we get any
sort of five to ten percent draw down, investors are
actually going to buy that dip still. It's actually that's
why I think you get this market that feels nosebleed,
(03:10):
and yet we're still doing that retail chase.
Speaker 2 (03:12):
So in the Greek letter, someone that I look at, folks,
this is from aerospace engineering, is THETA, which is time
guessing the time function, measuring the time function on the
X axis. Can you do of theta study now or
with a shutdown, no jobs report, all the other distractions
tailors drop. You can't measure out on the X axis
(03:34):
right now? Is that what this is really about?
Speaker 5 (03:36):
Yes?
Speaker 3 (03:36):
And no? And you know what I would say, Tom,
in terms of THETA it's good from the perspective of
if you were selling that Volatiley premium low as it
is because everything's been can kicked. It's good for someone
who's just writing it out right because all the event
risk has now been pushed out. The question and options
is always a timing question. Right now, the options market
(03:59):
is pricing that we will get a resolution before the October.
Speaker 2 (04:03):
I'm going to get one more nerd question in here
with Amy with Silverman RBC, Good morning across the nation,
Good morning Global and American Wall Street. We're thrilled you
whether where they work at Princeton and all that she's
done for the Royal Bank of Canada. Amy, was Silverman
really treasured here as well? What tal Love would say,
fooled by randomness is forget about all this pro Wall
(04:24):
Street thing. Look at the hedge fund report from Catherine
Burton yesterday, the non performance of hedge funds. Tala would say,
you can't figure it out, you take little bits of
money and go way out, THEATA way out and buy
the bet you want to bet.
Speaker 5 (04:40):
Is that efficacious?
Speaker 2 (04:41):
Now?
Speaker 3 (04:41):
Look, and there are tail funds that do that. And
it's a function of why do we go so far
up because we don't know exactly when the timing is,
but we do feel like that reckoning could occur, and
of course it's not that expensive. But again, markets are
very short term. We just got burned on the September
FMC not going your way, and you place those hedges
and now you're dragging a little on something that's ripped.
(05:04):
It's very hard to talk people into stuff like that, nerd.
Speaker 2 (05:07):
Folks, But I just tell you you're getting a window
here into the real world. Jordan Rochester over at Namura,
you can't miszoo. Excuse me, miszoo. You can't even understand
his report. It's just Greek to.
Speaker 5 (05:18):
Make too much Greek there.
Speaker 6 (05:19):
Yeah, Amy, who who your typical clients on your desk?
Are they hedge funds? Are they long only funds? Who's
a typical client of yours that really wants to talk
about options and hedging and that type of thing.
Speaker 3 (05:31):
Yeah, I would say it's a good mix So there's
long only as asset managers, there's pensions, and then there's
hedge funds. I'll tell you know, hedge funds can be
a little bit more nimble and what they do, and
what we've seen a lot of them do is rent
the small cap rally, so you know, they don't want
to go all in. So you're seeing a lot of
these IWM call spreads, which on an absolute level have
(05:53):
actually done fine because they're saying, we don't want to wait,
we don't want to sit on this concentration risk. When
we do see some sort of spread whining. In that case,
it was a volatility spread between IWM and q's let's
take advantage of that. So you are seeing nimbleness from
the community that can do it. I think it's a
little bit of a struggle, you know, for the long only. However,
(06:14):
if they've been in the right handful of names, uh,
they've done okay. And if they haven't, that that drag
is quite painful.
Speaker 5 (06:21):
Dumb question of the day.
Speaker 6 (06:23):
Do your clients want to hedge their fixed income portfolios
as well? And if so, how do they do that?
Speaker 3 (06:28):
They certainly do, That just wouldn't be my Alley and
the sense that we only focus on equities. Okay, but
I will tell you there's been a lot of translation
because there's so many liquid fixed income proxies, So an
HyG or a TLT, you're seeing fixed income focused hedge
funds and asset managers actually traffic more in equity derivatives
because there is a decent amount of liquidity in these
(06:50):
proxy ETFs.
Speaker 6 (06:51):
On the equity side, do they hedge with ETFs?
Speaker 5 (06:57):
And so how do they? How are ETFs? How's that
change your world?
Speaker 3 (07:01):
I mean for us, it's changed for the better because
I just feel like there's more tools in our toolbox.
You know, twenty years ago, I couldn't say, hey, go
out and buy an HyG so the high yield proxy
ETF foot spread you wouldn't get that liquidity nowadays, especially
because I think the end of the day, everything is
rates focused, no matter if you're a tourist or you're
specializing in it. Thank you use these as something that
(07:25):
you would do instead of CDX, and it's relatively liquid
and it gives you timing.
Speaker 2 (07:29):
So with that brilliant phrase which I totally agree with
from Painful Losses, can I suggest that part of the
rates focus is what's driving MEG seven higher, which is
a recalculation of their cash flows in terminal.
Speaker 5 (07:44):
Value one hundred percent.
Speaker 3 (07:46):
And you know, the one thing I'll say, the big
change to me post COVID is you can't rely on
these traditional correlations, right, you can't rely on your heads
just being a sixty to forty portfolio. I think MAG
seven changed a lot of that. And then you look
at the intercorrelation between MAG seven which has then relatively low,
and people are scratching their heads and they say, how
(08:07):
is it that you're all integrated into each other's supply
chains that yet this correlation isn't that high. And so
I do think that's why you're seeing these different expressions
of hedges Tom that weren't necessarily the case five years ago.
Speaker 2 (08:18):
I mean it was silver an RBC with this extended conversation,
a treat on it. On Jobs Day Friday at a
thirty Claudia sum will be with us. We're honored to
have doctor Sam with us today. So within the MAG
seven and all that, there's a recalculation here. How do
you take the fundamental story and how does that look
(08:39):
like when you look at it? Can you look at
the cross moments of Microsoft. I mean, what do they
look like?
Speaker 3 (08:45):
Absolutely?
Speaker 5 (08:46):
So.
Speaker 3 (08:46):
One thing I'll tell you is when we were looking,
you know, basically four or five years ago, at this
point when the AI news was slowly starting to become
part of the conversation. The first time you really saw
that bullish element was in Nvidia calls. So they started
to skew invert. All that means is the call option
bid became so vast relative to the put option bid.
(09:08):
Before that happened, the only time we saw that level
of exuberance was in the meme stocks. And when people
saw it on the meme stocks, they said, this is
a tempest and a teapot. This isn't going to happen
on bigger names. And then guess what it happened on
all the Mag seven names. And so now the market
has really start to pay attention to the Mag seven
cross moments because they determine the cross moments of the
(09:30):
entire index. You know, this is twenty five to fifty
percent depending on your index, and you have to watch it.
Speaker 5 (09:35):
The cross moments.
Speaker 2 (09:36):
Folks are starting with variants, the different dynamics of the moment.
For example, kretosis is the fungus Lisa Matteo's daughter.
Speaker 5 (09:46):
Has between her toes.
Speaker 2 (09:48):
It's also I think it's the third cross moment or mesocrtatic, leptokritatic,
something like that. Paul Amy did.
Speaker 5 (09:57):
Better on this than me, exactly.
Speaker 6 (09:59):
A talk to us about liquidity in your marketplace. If
you come up with a nice strategy for your client
and that actually get executed efficiently in the markets today,
how has it liquidity changed in the future As an
options market it you.
Speaker 3 (10:11):
Know, it's been incredible. So first, liquidity depending on what
you're trading, your standard suite of indices or mag seven,
what have you highly liquid from an options perspective. The
second thing I would say is we've had a lot
of duration shrinkage, so the folks.
Speaker 5 (10:26):
That creation shrink.
Speaker 3 (10:27):
Yes, duration, so the tenors of the options that are traded.
And this is a huge theme for us. It used
to be that one month was your short duration, and
then it used to be one week, and then Cibo
came out with a lot of zero day to x
rate and that's been the duration. So things happened very
rapidly in our markets. But at the same time, guys,
we also get less of a signal, so you know
(10:49):
that GPS that used to give you maybe one thousand
feet to make that left turn, we're getting like a
day now because you don't see people place those bets
until one day before. So I as a strategist can't
on the one day paper that I.
Speaker 2 (11:01):
Don't understand if you get a jump condition one way
or the other, how does that affect mere mortals out
there with a long term horizon of one week or
one month?
Speaker 3 (11:11):
You know, That's why if you look back to what
I would consider crises, so where the market kind of
gives you these one two standard divation moves, the velocity
tom is much faster. So think back to April twenty
twenty four, think back to Liberation Day this year. The
velocity of those moves up and down, that's a really
sharp V.
Speaker 5 (11:29):
Can I go full NERD to end? So it's slew rates.
That's what you do.
Speaker 2 (11:33):
You take electrical engineering folks and bring You're sitting in
a classroom with Princeton and you're going, why am I
in an engineering course? If I'm looking at finance, it's
about slur rates? Are the slur rates for our four
to oh one k the same as they used to be?
Speaker 3 (11:48):
I think in the sense that if you're if you
have a four oh one K, you're supposed to kind
of close your eyes and not worry about it. So
in that sense, if you're a long term investor, I
don't think it really changes anything. However, if you're us
and you live and breathe this day day at, day
in and day out, and then you know you're someone
on the other side who's got a quarter end to
worry about or month in Mars, it does become a
(12:10):
little bit problematic because you do have these potholes, you know,
I like driving Analoga's even though I don't drive, and like,
there's a lot more potholes that could happen than when
the Tenors were a lot longer.
Speaker 2 (12:20):
Rockton's daughter has Taylor coming in new from Target today.
Target's promise they'll deliver it today. How will the.
Speaker 5 (12:28):
Silverman House consume the new Tailor.
Speaker 3 (12:31):
Tom I have sixteen tickets to the Tailor Swafe release
party tonight, Wow for for my seven year old and
my eleven year old and their friends. So I'm you're
welcome to go. You're old, go get a movie theater
where they I don't even know at this point, but everyonce.
There's a lot of glitter involved in nail art and tattoos.
(12:51):
So I'm getting ready. I might need a drink before then.
Speaker 5 (12:55):
Your offspring address appropriately.
Speaker 3 (12:57):
They've been planning this outfit, you know, it's part of
this is part of the arc.
Speaker 5 (13:01):
So what are you smiling about over there?
Speaker 4 (13:03):
He's right.
Speaker 5 (13:04):
The girl's plan for this were very like, very cool.
Speaker 2 (13:08):
That is, so they all go to a movie theater
and there's a video of something.
Speaker 3 (13:13):
I believe she's got some you know, behind the scenes.
I don't know, but that's my guest Beatles.
Speaker 5 (13:18):
I think it's a same you were.
Speaker 6 (13:20):
I mean, I haven't seen anything like.
Speaker 2 (13:21):
This that's brilliant, and that the only equivalent was Beatlestone's
nineteen sixty four.
Speaker 5 (13:27):
Yeah, I will say this, folks.
Speaker 2 (13:30):
And I listened on the headphones. I previewed all those
songs to give you the songs. Amy called up and said,
I'm not coming on unless you do all Taylor, and
it's all out of Virginia Beach. There are these miracle
people in Virginia Peach, John Haynes, a giant named Serban
Ganeo who's very private, and Taylor's albums are manufactured essentially
(13:53):
by three geniuses in Virginia Beach and the sound when
you put it on, She's nobody sparing a penny here.
It's world class. It's world class fidelity.
Speaker 5 (14:06):
Amy was sober. Thank you so much. Stay with us.
Speaker 2 (14:09):
More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.
Speaker 1 (14:19):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us live
weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on
Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app, or
watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 2 (14:32):
Our conversation of the Day on the American economy, Claudia
sam joins us chief economists at New Century Advisors.
Speaker 5 (14:38):
Normally jobs day. What do you think, Dad, No, we're
not going to do that.
Speaker 2 (14:43):
She's out of Michigan with all of her front rate
Federal Reserve academics, doctor somem not in a recession, but
on the spirit.
Speaker 5 (14:51):
Of the American economy.
Speaker 2 (14:53):
Claudia got a great line which alludes to my book
years Ago, which is a steal from Ken Rogoff. Are
we flying on one engine? You say we're not. You say
we have impaired vision. Define America's impaired vision? Right?
Speaker 4 (15:10):
Well, I mean this is the time where we come
together every month and wait to find out the latest,
the best reading that we have on what's happened in
the labor market, and we don't have it today, Like
we're not going to have that discussion. So that's to me,
we're not flying blind. There's a lot of information about
the economy that we're getting, you know, even as the
(15:33):
federal government has shut down, but we're missing a really
important piece of information. So our vision is impaired. And
what's really frustrating is the September employment report exists right like,
these numbers are sitting there. It's just because the workers
who would normally put that up weren't deemed essential. You know,
we're just speculating connection, and that's really unfortunate.
Speaker 2 (15:55):
On a news basis, Doctor some does a president of
the United States get briefed on the numbers that exist
that we don't see.
Speaker 4 (16:03):
Given the timing of the shutdown, it should not have
made its way all the way to the president. Typically
the president also the FED chair would see this employment
report the night before, so Thursday night and the government
shutdown on Wednesday. But again, but it is the choice
of the White House at the end of the day.
Who are the essential federal workers. So it is a
choice of the White House as to whether or not
(16:25):
we have these data this morning or not.
Speaker 5 (16:27):
All right, Claudia.
Speaker 6 (16:28):
In the absence of the government data, maybe a little
bit more attention is focused on the ADP employment number.
A decline of thirty two thousand in September and a
downwardly revised decline of three thousand in August. I think
that caught some people by surprise. How did you look
at that number?
Speaker 2 (16:47):
Right?
Speaker 4 (16:47):
So absolutely we should be looking at the private sector numbers.
ADP often gets a lot of interest and attention. One
thing that ADP does is in September, it's a time
where they update their model to help them take you know,
the what they're looking at are the clients of ADP.
They're a large payroll processor, but they don't process every
(17:07):
payroll in the country, and so they need to use
data from the pure of labor statistics to take their
client data and make it more representative all you know,
all payrolls, all businesses. And unfortunately that happens in September.
So and they told us in the press release that
updating their model that actually shaved a good bit off
(17:29):
of their September and also their their August numbers, So
I think it's important. In the release they stress that,
you know, even after they did the benchmark revision pulled
in their new data, the trend was unchanged, right, So
they are seeing a slowing in job creation. But I
think if you look at the headline numbers that ADP printed,
(17:50):
you might be like, oh, wow, the slowing is really
picking up, right, that sign of detrioration that we're all
so worried about and watching for, and even ADP in
their release that was not the way they interpret their data.
So it was just another market like, you know, job
creation is really slow, and that feeds this narrative of
the downside risk.
Speaker 2 (18:08):
Claudia sim with this. So we're getting briefed here, and
of course we do better with Claudia some Governor Myron
will be with us at nine point thirty two this morning,
that is scheduled.
Speaker 5 (18:17):
Claudia, back in your ute.
Speaker 2 (18:19):
I'm sure at Michigan you were doing the University of
Michigan's research seminar and quantitative economics the Michigan State output gap.
Can we measure the output gap that Myron of Harvard
is so fired up.
Speaker 4 (18:35):
About well output gaps are any measure of slack. Slack
frankly is going to be an estimate, right, You're going
to need a model, You're going to need to make
a lot of assumptions. So we can certainly have differences
of opinion about how those are put together, but you
know the ingredients of because at the end of the day,
(18:55):
the thing that we don't observe we get measures of,
say GDP growth, These are estimates, they get revised, but
we can go out and measure that. The thing that's
important for the gap is you have to get an
estimate of what's potential, like what's the best we could
be doing. And that's the piece that you know, you
can have discussions and changes. Big changes in immigration like
(19:17):
that can affect what potential output is, big changes in
technology and productivity that can affect what potential output is.
So you know, I think it's it's an art more
like science to get at those but you know that
these measures of slacker are really important. And I will
mention bringing it back to today and the data we're missing.
The big thing that we don't have from the private sectors.
(19:39):
We don't have a measure of slack in the labor market.
The unemployment rate is one of those you know, fits
in that measure of like workers looking for work that
don't have it versus workers who do have work.
Speaker 6 (19:54):
Claudia, what do we know now with a little bit
of experience here about the closing of the southern border
and that's impact on the US labor force? Uh?
Speaker 4 (20:07):
The the immigration statistics, you know, we what we need
are the information from the federal government on the you know,
unauthorized immigration in the country, the deportations. I mean, there
are there are data that are published. I think some
(20:28):
of those have been more lagged than in the past,
but it really is our population estimates, which the immigration
is just one piece into it. They tend to come
with very long lags. So I think this because policy
has changed so much and so rapidly that there's both
you know, reporting, the reporting lags, and then just putting
all the pieces together. So I think this we know
(20:50):
the direction, Like we can sign this in terms of
like immigration has slowed down dramatically, but to get really
precise and particularly in these decompositions of like oh well,
job creation is down to twenty thousand, you know, is
this high or is it low? What's the break even?
Speaker 7 (21:05):
Right?
Speaker 4 (21:06):
Those very precise calculations. We just don't have the input
data to make you know those fine points, and we
probably won't for some time.
Speaker 6 (21:14):
And Claudia, just away from the labor discussion for a moment.
The other side of the FED discussion is inflation. What's
your view of inflation right now in this economy?
Speaker 4 (21:26):
Right Well, inflation is elevated. It's it's and it has
been elevated for some time. I think it's in the
space of it's still a problem. Three percent inflation is
still higher than what people have been used to, particularly
before the pandemic, and the longer it last, it does
add up, right, and so it's a problem. I wouldn't
put wouldn't assign it being an acute problem, and I
(21:48):
think there are reasons to expect it to come to
come down.
Speaker 3 (21:54):
Now.
Speaker 4 (21:54):
On inflation, I think this is a place where we
really are much more flying blind. If the federal government
stays closed, we do not have as much data to
here watching this, Claude, You've.
Speaker 5 (22:04):
Got to run. I can't wait to have you on
for a real jobs Day again.
Speaker 2 (22:08):
Doctor Sam has been one of our foundation supporters here
her academics at New Century Advisor, of course iconic on
measuring slowdowns in America.
Speaker 5 (22:19):
Stay with us.
Speaker 2 (22:20):
More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.
Speaker 1 (22:30):
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Coarclay, and Android
Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen
live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station.
Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 5 (22:47):
Priam is isery here on a jobs day? Folks? It's
a non jobs day.
Speaker 2 (22:50):
But as pri as you and I were talking, the
dynamics of full faith and credit is price up and
yield down?
Speaker 5 (22:58):
What's the x axislo like? When is the when of lower?
Speaker 8 (23:02):
Yields have been declining in the last few months. You know,
if you compare it to say where we were at
the start of the year or even after Liberation Day,
when the concern was inflation may skyrocket, the Fed may
not be able to cut at all. They may be
the Cell America trade. What happens to the deficit? So
that's how the tenure got above four and a half?
Speaker 9 (23:25):
Why has it come down?
Speaker 8 (23:26):
Well, inflation has not picked up as much, So I
think that's allowing the FED to at least reduce the
level of restriction, and the deficit is marginally better because
we are statif as we've heard this, the tariff revenues
are improving the deficit, not the long run entitlement issue,
but at least near terms, So you know, I think
three seventy five to four and a quarter is our
(23:46):
range for now, so it is below where we are
right now.
Speaker 9 (23:49):
We like owning duration. One of the things.
Speaker 8 (23:53):
The reason we like it is even though you're in
that range, there's asymmetry, meaning there's more of a case
of rates to fall if you get either permanent lay
offs due to the shutdown or a slowing in you know,
the job market continues. There's a nonlinearity. I know, Tom,
you like to talk about nonlinearities in the job market.
Typically in the uneployment rate starts to go up and
(24:13):
goes up much faster. So for that asymmetry, we like
going in too.
Speaker 2 (24:16):
So silent controller and put me in the time out here.
I didn't introduce ms Messer correctly. Premium miser folks, corplus
fund at G. People are going to asset management.
Speaker 6 (24:24):
Very good the markets seem to be ignoring a shutdown,
it seems like, and is that something that is reasonable
from your perspective, given what's what could happen? I guess so.
Speaker 8 (24:35):
Historically shutdowns have been a bit of political theater, so
the market ignores it. President trum signed something in law
saying that they will be in twenty nineteen, saying.
Speaker 9 (24:44):
That people will get back paid.
Speaker 8 (24:46):
So you don't get paid whether you're working or four load,
but you will get paid at some point. If it's
a short shutdown, I think it's fine for the market
to ignore it. Why it could be a little bit
different this time is we've not historically heard during a
shutdown that the administration may actually have permanent layoffs. Now
maybe it's a negotiating stance, but if it actually results
(25:07):
in permanent layoffs, I think the market's not going to
ignore it.
Speaker 9 (25:11):
And the other one is how long does it last.
Speaker 8 (25:14):
You know, if it's a short shut down, you don't
really miss a paycheck, it's okay. You start to miss
one or two paychecks, the military starts to not get paid.
They're putting their lives on the line. I think then
the market's going to say, okay, Congress has to get
their act together. I think then the market will start
to increase risk premiums and you'll see an impact in rates,
(25:34):
and you'll see an impact in the agree market.
Speaker 6 (25:36):
All right, So we're not getting the nonfarm payroll data today,
but neither is the FED. I'm assuming unless they get
some little somebody's passes them a note under the desk.
So they're kind of flying blind a little bit too.
So how does that if we go a week or
two and they're not getting the data that they need
because they are data dependent, how do you think.
Speaker 5 (25:55):
The FED has How does that impact the FED?
Speaker 7 (25:57):
Either? Right?
Speaker 8 (25:58):
Great point, because this FED has set time and time
again that they are data dependent. They don't want to
rely on a model, they want to base it on data.
But you know, payrolls is a very important data release,
so is claim, so is CPI. But if we don't
have that, we look at what we call second tier
data releases. And on the labor market, I actually think
there's been a remarkable amount of consistency. We're not seeing
(26:21):
the layoffs, but we are seeing low hiring, whether it's surveys,
whether it's you know, actual hiring trends in the last
few months. So I think the FED looks at the
totality of the data and says there's some risks to
the labor market building. This is why they cut in September.
The risk management argument. I think you can make that
case for an October cut as well. I think given
that BLS is not collecting data, we shouldn't really expect
(26:44):
a very reliable, you know, October payroll report as well.
So I think this might be for the next few months.
They're going to have to look at a lot of
other data. I think given the starting point, we're at
four and a quarter on FED ones, they can cut
a few more times before it starts to get difficult
for them because now you're in the vicinity of neutral.
Now you need a much better credible sense of data.
Speaker 5 (27:04):
How do you respond? And I believe Governor Myron sy
help me here. We got Governor Myron in.
Speaker 2 (27:09):
The nine o'clock hour. I think, how do There's a
rangy debate, fabulous to moralic article in Bloomberg yesterday on
the neutral rate. The plug ins of the tailor rule
in that it's tangential to what you do, but when
you synthesize Ferulean chasm in and prea misra. Is there
(27:29):
anything we can believe it in the neutral rate or
is it just the fog out there?
Speaker 5 (27:34):
You just see the fog, the fog on Park Avenue.
Speaker 2 (27:37):
Yeah, comes down, sure, and you know it avoids the
JP market building special fog removerent is.
Speaker 5 (27:44):
A very nice fog in our neutral rate analysis.
Speaker 8 (27:47):
So there is always large amounts of uncertainty around the
neutral rate.
Speaker 9 (27:52):
It does move with structural reasons.
Speaker 8 (27:54):
So there's been this argument for the last few years
of the neutral rate is higher because corporate and business balance,
it's are better that there's more fiscal expansion, and then
Governor Myron is making the point that actually it's going
down because of tariffs and lower immigration. I think we're
not going to know, But what I am taking away
(28:14):
from that is whether it's three or two and a
half at funds, is it four and a quarter? You're
not hearing much from people saying actually, policy is not restrictive.
I think this will be the key question next day
of the fact that's three four times they get into
the vicinity of neutral, which I would say is two
and a half to three and a half. That's how
we're thinking about it, and so they can still cut
(28:35):
for now and then watch to see how do different
parts of the economy respond to interest rates. That's going
to be the best metric of how neutral how restrictive
are rates, And it's going to vary. If you're in
AI investment and may not be that restrictive. Housing it's
very restrictive.
Speaker 5 (28:51):
Also.
Speaker 2 (28:52):
Three stooges monetary policy step by steps exactly.
Speaker 6 (28:56):
If I'm a credit analyst in the Core plus bond fund,
so I haven't even bothered to get from my cubicle,
go to your corner office and it's you ideas, are
you open to taking credit risk?
Speaker 7 (29:06):
Oh?
Speaker 8 (29:06):
Absolutely, so we do like credit risk. We think we're
in a subtrend growth environment one to two percent. So
you know, the overall macro pictures positive for risk. Company
fundamentals look fabulous. I mean a few months ago I
was nervous that do company margins come down because they
absorb tariffs. We haven't seen that they've absorbed tariffs and
they've managed to keep margins high. So company fundamentals are strong.
(29:30):
But here's why I need to talk to the analysts
all the time. Dispersion is increasing, whether it's securitized credit,
whether it's investment grade credit with the LBO risk, whether
it's high yield. You are seeing some defaults. So we
need the analysts, We need the research to do the work,
not just at the broad sector level, but at the
company level, and then tell us this is what you overweight,
and importantly, this is what you underweight.
Speaker 2 (29:52):
Can I beg We'll give you three segments, will blow
out an hour. I want you to come here, the
guy that's wor guy of the woman walking into your office,
as Paul brilliantly describes who's looking at private credit. The
shadows there, the new CMBs tranches and all that. Bring
that mathematical beast with you. The two of you together
(30:16):
would be a real surveillance street. That would be really great.
Speaker 9 (30:19):
I like that.
Speaker 8 (30:20):
Yeah, I think I like that you bring up CMBs
because there you don't just have to look at the collateral.
If you look at the collateral, the servicer, the structure,
and see which tranch you're buying.
Speaker 9 (30:31):
So it requires a lot of work.
Speaker 2 (30:32):
We're going to make that happen. I think Eric still
he lost so much money last night in the game.
I'm not sure he's listening.
Speaker 5 (30:37):
Priam Israel had a non jobs they thank you so much.
She is with JP Morgan Asset Management. Stay with us.
Speaker 2 (30:44):
More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.
Speaker 1 (30:55):
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
starting at an am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto
with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us
live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg Terminal.
Speaker 2 (31:09):
The last time Tiffany Wilding was on, Folks, she was riveting.
I cannot it's a blur, folks like Paul and I
staggered from guests to guests, But I had the clearest
memory that she just absolutely nailed the tension out there. Yeah,
is witnessed by price and yield in.
Speaker 5 (31:27):
The American and absolutely.
Speaker 6 (31:28):
Tiffany Wilding joins us. She's an econmress for North America
for Pimco. Tiffany, were not getting the economic data that
we're used to getting that the market kind of feeds
off of. So let me ask you to step back
and just kind of give us your thirty thousand foot
view that you share with your clients these days about
this US economy.
Speaker 7 (31:49):
Yeah, well, so, yeah, I think taking a step back
what we've noticed is that the economy is behaving, you know,
somewhat differently than I think most people expected, just given
the veryious policy pivots that the Trump administration is implemented.
So obviously we've gotten really large tariff increases, we have
immigration policy, U turns, we have various other things, And
(32:11):
I think the surprising thing for many is that, you know,
the manifestation of those policy changes in the economy would
be through price level adjustments. And I think what we're
seeing as we go through the year and we're gaining
more information, is that companies aren't necessarily increasing prices by
as much as people expected. They are doing it on
the margin, but they're also trying to reduce costs. And
(32:34):
part of the way that they're reducing costs is they're
just maintaining their labor costs, so they're even trying to
actually reduce labor costs. So we've seen a pretty material
deceleration in labor market activity this year. We think that
part of the reason why they're choosing to do this
is that you have clashing forces. You have this immigration
(32:55):
you turn, there's less labor supply, less people coming into
the labor market, but you also have this technology boom,
that's also that's happening in the background, and so they're
trying to figure out how can we save money through
implementation of technology, and we think that's also having an
effect here. So I think that's why you're seeing more
concern at a federal Reserve officials more recently. We think
it's why they, you know, lowered took the first step
(33:17):
to start lowering interest rates again in September, and ultimately
we think that will be a reason for them to
cut a couple more times this year as that labor
market stays weak. But you know, twenty twenty six I
think does look a lot better as you get some
more of the one big beautiful bill stimulus that's you know,
that's hitting the economy to offset all of this.
Speaker 6 (33:36):
Yeah, that's kind of where I wanted to go, Tiffany
about twenty twenty six and the tax cuts, the credits,
those things that were in fact included in that tax bill.
Are you putting that into your model in twenty twenty
six as a driver of this economy.
Speaker 7 (33:52):
Yeah, I mean so if you look at you know,
the tax cuts were retroactive, which is which means means
that you know, both businesses and households will get a
one time larger check. You're seeing that in the business
tax data already that the Treasury publishes, but you're also
(34:13):
going to see it when consumers, when households file for
refunds early next year. The refund checks are going to
be large, especially those households that work jobs that where
they work overtime. Any tax is paid in twenty twenty
five on overtime is basically going to be rebated back
to them at the beginning of twenty twenty six. So
that's going to be a pretty large refund check. In
addition to the enhanced child tax credits, et cetera. So
(34:36):
we think that will help. It's a one time thing
for sure, you know, in terms of the retroactiveness of it,
but it will help to sort of bridge the economy
through this period of weakness we think, you know, as
you know, as you have the tariffs that are also
starting to bite.
Speaker 2 (34:51):
Our global technical director wants to know if he can
you know the rebate he's going to get for overtime.
Speaker 5 (34:57):
Yeah, I mean, you know, is that incoming boom boom.
Speaker 2 (35:00):
I think that's going to be a brilliant Tiffany Wilding
with us with Pimco. Tiffany I just brought up Atlanta
GDP now three point eight four to two percent. I
did a regression back to the end of twenty twenty
two the Yardnni and Campora low and the answer is
where plus a solid one point two standard deviations. We've
(35:21):
been there. This is a third time. I mean, is
that a one off kind of boom? Do you think
it just pulls back or do we just completely misjudge
this sustained real GDP is Tarsan slock of Apollo mentioned
earlier this week.
Speaker 7 (35:39):
Yeah, well, I think we've gotten we got really good
news with the recent revisions to second quarter GDP, which
also included you know what the BEA calls annual benchmark revisions,
and they kind of knew data that's more complete that
is included in that. And one of the big things
that was revised higher was the savings rate over the
(36:01):
last several years. So it just suggests that, you know,
consumers have a bigger buffer here. We've been talking about
this sort of K shaped economy now for a couple
of years where you have you know, higher end consumers
that have you know, higher wealth as a result of
increasing housing prices and equity markets since the pandemic, et cetera.
And so you have consumers that have a bigger buffer
(36:23):
coming into this period, and that argues for them just
to be more resilient. We think that the resilience and
the consumer that you're seeing is related to that. You know, ultimately,
we think you still will see some slow down in
the fourth quarter, but yeah, the consumer looks better, Tiffany.
Speaker 5 (36:38):
I'm sorry, it wasn't focused there.
Speaker 2 (36:39):
Amory Horning just came up to our gorgeous studio and
placed your New York Yankees jacket like the one Lisa
has on the glass. Wow, Tiffany said, I was a rattle. Tiffany,
I got an average line and that regression of Atlanta GDP.
Now the average line back to the Denny and Compori
(37:01):
stock market low October twenty twenty two, Ready, Paul, two
point six percent?
Speaker 5 (37:07):
Yeah is average? Yeah?
Speaker 2 (37:09):
Have we just misjudged, Tiffany the boom that we're in
because of technology.
Speaker 5 (37:16):
Yeah?
Speaker 7 (37:16):
Well, so, I think that you're absolutely right. Growth has
been since the pandemic closer to two and a half
to three percent. But we think one of the reasons
why that's happening is because you've all over that period,
you also had an immigration boom that was happening, and
that people come into the country, they consume, They not
(37:38):
only work, but they consume, and so you had those
inflows that were also resulting in higher growth performance. So
we do think that part of the reason why growth
was so elevated in that period that is coming off
now as you have a U turn in that policy.
So we think the underlying level of growth in the
US economy has stepped down from that two and a
(38:00):
half to three percent pace, you know, to something closer
to two percent where we were pre pandemic, you know.
And then I think that broader question is how much
is you know, the technology related investment trends that we're
seeing associated with AI. How much room does that have
to run? And how much of a boost could we
have from that? And we think that there is some
room for that to run. It does look like we're
(38:22):
in the early stages of that. Even though the equity
markets have have been trading that theme for quite some time.
The actual investment that we're getting in terms of data centers,
you know, and the hard investments, we think that is
actually just kind of more in the early days here,
so that has some more room to run.
Speaker 5 (38:38):
Tiffany well, and thank you so much.
Speaker 2 (38:40):
Love when you come on, I kind of thank you
North America, pim Co, just absolutely brilliant.
Speaker 1 (38:45):
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,
and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday,
seven to ten am Easter and on Bloomberg dot com,
the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app.
You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube
(39:05):
and always on the Bloomberg terminal
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg
Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern
on Apple car Play or Android Auto with the Bloomberg
Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts,
(00:25):
or watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 2 (00:27):
We're thrilled did Is Taylor drops here? Our surveillance Swift
correspondent Amy was Silverman joining us today. But the timing
you're so important, I'm not going to give you any
Taylor chat much today. Amy, She's had a derriv of
strategy RBC. What did do the cross moment say about
this moment for America?
Speaker 3 (00:48):
Well, look, the last time I came, Tom, we talked
a little bit about the left tail and the right tail,
and you know, part of our conversation was that I
still felt like investors were more worried about that right tail.
Speaker 4 (01:00):
Here we are with over.
Speaker 3 (01:01):
With markets at all time highs SKEW is relatively low.
You know, all the hedges that had been placed were
not monetized because the markets kept going up. And when
I talked to investors, they say, this just feels like
the most reluctant rally.
Speaker 2 (01:15):
Roman Friedman, NYU I think he's very controversial. In economics,
he would say the rehedge will kill you. Inside baseball,
we've had this bull market, the hedges weren't monetized. They
got to go out and rehedge. Can they rehedge opportunistically here?
Speaker 3 (01:35):
They certainly can. And of course, because everything's come in
from a volatility perspective, it's not that expensive. But the
reality is nobody's going to because markets are very short.
Speaker 5 (01:47):
Very I love it, yeah.
Speaker 3 (01:52):
Because because you know, when you're burned once twice, then
shame on you. And so you know, you see it
in some aspects of the market. You do see it
in goal, but you don't see it as much in
VIX and you don't see it as much in s
and p hedges because that concentration risk keeps pushing the
right tail to be more the fear than.
Speaker 6 (02:09):
The left hand.
Speaker 2 (02:09):
Can I editorialize from one Sweeney and Keene, we are
so lucky, we're not running.
Speaker 5 (02:14):
Money running out.
Speaker 6 (02:16):
So are your clients looking to buy protection or is
it or not? Because again I look at a VIX.
That's the only thing I kind of look at because
I'm simple and I don't see a lot of fear
out there, So what are you seeing on your desk?
Speaker 3 (02:27):
So I will tell you post Liberation Day, we did
have that big rally, and investors did hedge, and a
lot of it was longer term, so a lot of
it was for that September FOMC and then when that
came and went not in the direction they had hoped
from a hedging perspective, none of that premium was rolled.
What investors tell me right now is they're looking at
(02:48):
alternate venues, so that could be you know, call options
on gold. Even though that's run too, they at least
feel like it's a little bit less correlated. And then
what they're waiting for is and I'm interested in what
consensus is here, but I think if we get any
sort of five to ten percent draw down, investors are
actually going to buy that dip still. It's actually that's
why I think you get this market that feels nosebleed,
(03:10):
and yet we're still doing that retail chase.
Speaker 2 (03:12):
So in the Greek letter, someone that I look at, folks,
this is from aerospace engineering, is THETA, which is time
guessing the time function, measuring the time function on the
X axis. Can you do of theta study now or
with a shutdown, no jobs report, all the other distractions
tailors drop. You can't measure out on the X axis
(03:34):
right now? Is that what this is really about?
Speaker 5 (03:36):
Yes?
Speaker 3 (03:36):
And no? And you know what I would say, Tom,
in terms of THETA it's good from the perspective of
if you were selling that Volatiley premium low as it
is because everything's been can kicked. It's good for someone
who's just writing it out right because all the event
risk has now been pushed out. The question and options
is always a timing question. Right now, the options market
(03:59):
is pricing that we will get a resolution before the October.
Speaker 2 (04:03):
I'm going to get one more nerd question in here
with Amy with Silverman RBC, Good morning across the nation,
Good morning Global and American Wall Street. We're thrilled you
whether where they work at Princeton and all that she's
done for the Royal Bank of Canada. Amy, was Silverman
really treasured here as well? What tal Love would say,
fooled by randomness is forget about all this pro Wall
(04:24):
Street thing. Look at the hedge fund report from Catherine
Burton yesterday, the non performance of hedge funds. Tala would say,
you can't figure it out, you take little bits of
money and go way out, THEATA way out and buy
the bet you want to bet.
Speaker 5 (04:40):
Is that efficacious?
Speaker 2 (04:41):
Now?
Speaker 3 (04:41):
Look, and there are tail funds that do that. And
it's a function of why do we go so far
up because we don't know exactly when the timing is,
but we do feel like that reckoning could occur, and
of course it's not that expensive. But again, markets are
very short term. We just got burned on the September
FMC not going your way, and you place those hedges
and now you're dragging a little on something that's ripped.
(05:04):
It's very hard to talk people into stuff like that, nerd.
Speaker 2 (05:07):
Folks, But I just tell you you're getting a window
here into the real world. Jordan Rochester over at Namura,
you can't miszoo. Excuse me, miszoo. You can't even understand
his report. It's just Greek to.
Speaker 5 (05:18):
Make too much Greek there.
Speaker 6 (05:19):
Yeah, Amy, who who your typical clients on your desk?
Are they hedge funds? Are they long only funds? Who's
a typical client of yours that really wants to talk
about options and hedging and that type of thing.
Speaker 3 (05:31):
Yeah, I would say it's a good mix So there's
long only as asset managers, there's pensions, and then there's
hedge funds. I'll tell you know, hedge funds can be
a little bit more nimble and what they do, and
what we've seen a lot of them do is rent
the small cap rally, so you know, they don't want
to go all in. So you're seeing a lot of
these IWM call spreads, which on an absolute level have
(05:53):
actually done fine because they're saying, we don't want to wait,
we don't want to sit on this concentration risk. When
we do see some sort of spread whining. In that case,
it was a volatility spread between IWM and q's let's
take advantage of that. So you are seeing nimbleness from
the community that can do it. I think it's a
little bit of a struggle, you know, for the long only. However,
(06:14):
if they've been in the right handful of names, uh,
they've done okay. And if they haven't, that that drag
is quite painful.
Speaker 5 (06:21):
Dumb question of the day.
Speaker 6 (06:23):
Do your clients want to hedge their fixed income portfolios
as well? And if so, how do they do that?
Speaker 3 (06:28):
They certainly do, That just wouldn't be my Alley and
the sense that we only focus on equities. Okay, but
I will tell you there's been a lot of translation
because there's so many liquid fixed income proxies, So an
HyG or a TLT, you're seeing fixed income focused hedge
funds and asset managers actually traffic more in equity derivatives
because there is a decent amount of liquidity in these
(06:50):
proxy ETFs.
Speaker 6 (06:51):
On the equity side, do they hedge with ETFs?
Speaker 5 (06:57):
And so how do they? How are ETFs? How's that
change your world?
Speaker 3 (07:01):
I mean for us, it's changed for the better because
I just feel like there's more tools in our toolbox.
You know, twenty years ago, I couldn't say, hey, go
out and buy an HyG so the high yield proxy
ETF foot spread you wouldn't get that liquidity nowadays, especially
because I think the end of the day, everything is
rates focused, no matter if you're a tourist or you're
specializing in it. Thank you use these as something that
(07:25):
you would do instead of CDX, and it's relatively liquid
and it gives you timing.
Speaker 2 (07:29):
So with that brilliant phrase which I totally agree with
from Painful Losses, can I suggest that part of the
rates focus is what's driving MEG seven higher, which is
a recalculation of their cash flows in terminal.
Speaker 5 (07:44):
Value one hundred percent.
Speaker 3 (07:46):
And you know, the one thing I'll say, the big
change to me post COVID is you can't rely on
these traditional correlations, right, you can't rely on your heads
just being a sixty to forty portfolio. I think MAG
seven changed a lot of that. And then you look
at the intercorrelation between MAG seven which has then relatively low,
and people are scratching their heads and they say, how
(08:07):
is it that you're all integrated into each other's supply
chains that yet this correlation isn't that high. And so
I do think that's why you're seeing these different expressions
of hedges Tom that weren't necessarily the case five years ago.
Speaker 2 (08:18):
I mean it was silver an RBC with this extended conversation,
a treat on it. On Jobs Day Friday at a
thirty Claudia sum will be with us. We're honored to
have doctor Sam with us today. So within the MAG
seven and all that, there's a recalculation here. How do
you take the fundamental story and how does that look
(08:39):
like when you look at it? Can you look at
the cross moments of Microsoft. I mean, what do they
look like?
Speaker 3 (08:45):
Absolutely?
Speaker 5 (08:46):
So.
Speaker 3 (08:46):
One thing I'll tell you is when we were looking,
you know, basically four or five years ago, at this
point when the AI news was slowly starting to become
part of the conversation. The first time you really saw
that bullish element was in Nvidia calls. So they started
to skew invert. All that means is the call option
bid became so vast relative to the put option bid.
(09:08):
Before that happened, the only time we saw that level
of exuberance was in the meme stocks. And when people
saw it on the meme stocks, they said, this is
a tempest and a teapot. This isn't going to happen
on bigger names. And then guess what it happened on
all the Mag seven names. And so now the market
has really start to pay attention to the Mag seven
cross moments because they determine the cross moments of the
(09:30):
entire index. You know, this is twenty five to fifty
percent depending on your index, and you have to watch it.
Speaker 5 (09:35):
The cross moments.
Speaker 2 (09:36):
Folks are starting with variants, the different dynamics of the moment.
For example, kretosis is the fungus Lisa Matteo's daughter.
Speaker 5 (09:46):
Has between her toes.
Speaker 2 (09:48):
It's also I think it's the third cross moment or mesocrtatic, leptokritatic,
something like that. Paul Amy did.
Speaker 5 (09:57):
Better on this than me, exactly.
Speaker 6 (09:59):
A talk to us about liquidity in your marketplace. If
you come up with a nice strategy for your client
and that actually get executed efficiently in the markets today,
how has it liquidity changed in the future As an
options market it you.
Speaker 3 (10:11):
Know, it's been incredible. So first, liquidity depending on what
you're trading, your standard suite of indices or mag seven,
what have you highly liquid from an options perspective. The
second thing I would say is we've had a lot
of duration shrinkage, so the folks.
Speaker 5 (10:26):
That creation shrink.
Speaker 3 (10:27):
Yes, duration, so the tenors of the options that are traded.
And this is a huge theme for us. It used
to be that one month was your short duration, and
then it used to be one week, and then Cibo
came out with a lot of zero day to x
rate and that's been the duration. So things happened very
rapidly in our markets. But at the same time, guys,
we also get less of a signal, so you know
(10:49):
that GPS that used to give you maybe one thousand
feet to make that left turn, we're getting like a
day now because you don't see people place those bets
until one day before. So I as a strategist can't
on the one day paper that I.
Speaker 2 (11:01):
Don't understand if you get a jump condition one way
or the other, how does that affect mere mortals out
there with a long term horizon of one week or
one month?
Speaker 3 (11:11):
You know, That's why if you look back to what
I would consider crises, so where the market kind of
gives you these one two standard divation moves, the velocity
tom is much faster. So think back to April twenty
twenty four, think back to Liberation Day this year. The
velocity of those moves up and down, that's a really
sharp V.
Speaker 5 (11:29):
Can I go full NERD to end? So it's slew rates.
That's what you do.
Speaker 2 (11:33):
You take electrical engineering folks and bring You're sitting in
a classroom with Princeton and you're going, why am I
in an engineering course? If I'm looking at finance, it's
about slur rates? Are the slur rates for our four
to oh one k the same as they used to be?
Speaker 3 (11:48):
I think in the sense that if you're if you
have a four oh one K, you're supposed to kind
of close your eyes and not worry about it. So
in that sense, if you're a long term investor, I
don't think it really changes anything. However, if you're us
and you live and breathe this day day at, day
in and day out, and then you know you're someone
on the other side who's got a quarter end to
worry about or month in Mars, it does become a
(12:10):
little bit problematic because you do have these potholes, you know,
I like driving Analoga's even though I don't drive, and like,
there's a lot more potholes that could happen than when
the Tenors were a lot longer.
Speaker 2 (12:20):
Rockton's daughter has Taylor coming in new from Target today.
Target's promise they'll deliver it today. How will the.
Speaker 5 (12:28):
Silverman House consume the new Tailor.
Speaker 3 (12:31):
Tom I have sixteen tickets to the Tailor Swafe release
party tonight, Wow for for my seven year old and
my eleven year old and their friends. So I'm you're
welcome to go. You're old, go get a movie theater
where they I don't even know at this point, but everyonce.
There's a lot of glitter involved in nail art and tattoos.
(12:51):
So I'm getting ready. I might need a drink before then.
Speaker 5 (12:55):
Your offspring address appropriately.
Speaker 3 (12:57):
They've been planning this outfit, you know, it's part of
this is part of the arc.
Speaker 5 (13:01):
So what are you smiling about over there?
Speaker 4 (13:03):
He's right.
Speaker 5 (13:04):
The girl's plan for this were very like, very cool.
Speaker 2 (13:08):
That is, so they all go to a movie theater
and there's a video of something.
Speaker 3 (13:13):
I believe she's got some you know, behind the scenes.
I don't know, but that's my guest Beatles.
Speaker 5 (13:18):
I think it's a same you were.
Speaker 6 (13:20):
I mean, I haven't seen anything like.
Speaker 2 (13:21):
This that's brilliant, and that the only equivalent was Beatlestone's
nineteen sixty four.
Speaker 5 (13:27):
Yeah, I will say this, folks.
Speaker 2 (13:30):
And I listened on the headphones. I previewed all those
songs to give you the songs. Amy called up and said,
I'm not coming on unless you do all Taylor, and
it's all out of Virginia Beach. There are these miracle
people in Virginia Peach, John Haynes, a giant named Serban
Ganeo who's very private, and Taylor's albums are manufactured essentially
(13:53):
by three geniuses in Virginia Beach and the sound when
you put it on, She's nobody sparing a penny here.
It's world class. It's world class fidelity.
Speaker 5 (14:06):
Amy was sober. Thank you so much. Stay with us.
Speaker 2 (14:09):
More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.
Speaker 1 (14:19):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us live
weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on
Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app, or
watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 2 (14:32):
Our conversation of the Day on the American economy, Claudia
sam joins us chief economists at New Century Advisors.
Speaker 5 (14:38):
Normally jobs day. What do you think, Dad, No, we're
not going to do that.
Speaker 2 (14:43):
She's out of Michigan with all of her front rate
Federal Reserve academics, doctor somem not in a recession, but
on the spirit.
Speaker 5 (14:51):
Of the American economy.
Speaker 2 (14:53):
Claudia got a great line which alludes to my book
years Ago, which is a steal from Ken Rogoff. Are
we flying on one engine? You say we're not. You say
we have impaired vision. Define America's impaired vision? Right?
Speaker 4 (15:10):
Well, I mean this is the time where we come
together every month and wait to find out the latest,
the best reading that we have on what's happened in
the labor market, and we don't have it today, Like
we're not going to have that discussion. So that's to me,
we're not flying blind. There's a lot of information about
the economy that we're getting, you know, even as the
(15:33):
federal government has shut down, but we're missing a really
important piece of information. So our vision is impaired. And
what's really frustrating is the September employment report exists right like,
these numbers are sitting there. It's just because the workers
who would normally put that up weren't deemed essential. You know,
we're just speculating connection, and that's really unfortunate.
Speaker 2 (15:55):
On a news basis, Doctor some does a president of
the United States get briefed on the numbers that exist
that we don't see.
Speaker 4 (16:03):
Given the timing of the shutdown, it should not have
made its way all the way to the president. Typically
the president also the FED chair would see this employment
report the night before, so Thursday night and the government
shutdown on Wednesday. But again, but it is the choice
of the White House at the end of the day.
Who are the essential federal workers. So it is a
choice of the White House as to whether or not
(16:25):
we have these data this morning or not.
Speaker 5 (16:27):
All right, Claudia.
Speaker 6 (16:28):
In the absence of the government data, maybe a little
bit more attention is focused on the ADP employment number.
A decline of thirty two thousand in September and a
downwardly revised decline of three thousand in August. I think
that caught some people by surprise. How did you look
at that number?
Speaker 2 (16:47):
Right?
Speaker 4 (16:47):
So absolutely we should be looking at the private sector numbers.
ADP often gets a lot of interest and attention. One
thing that ADP does is in September, it's a time
where they update their model to help them take you know,
the what they're looking at are the clients of ADP.
They're a large payroll processor, but they don't process every
(17:07):
payroll in the country, and so they need to use
data from the pure of labor statistics to take their
client data and make it more representative all you know,
all payrolls, all businesses. And unfortunately that happens in September.
So and they told us in the press release that
updating their model that actually shaved a good bit off
(17:29):
of their September and also their their August numbers, So
I think it's important. In the release they stress that,
you know, even after they did the benchmark revision pulled
in their new data, the trend was unchanged, right, So
they are seeing a slowing in job creation. But I
think if you look at the headline numbers that ADP printed,
(17:50):
you might be like, oh, wow, the slowing is really
picking up, right, that sign of detrioration that we're all
so worried about and watching for, and even ADP in
their release that was not the way they interpret their data.
So it was just another market like, you know, job
creation is really slow, and that feeds this narrative of
the downside risk.
Speaker 2 (18:08):
Claudia sim with this. So we're getting briefed here, and
of course we do better with Claudia some Governor Myron
will be with us at nine point thirty two this morning,
that is scheduled.
Speaker 5 (18:17):
Claudia, back in your ute.
Speaker 2 (18:19):
I'm sure at Michigan you were doing the University of
Michigan's research seminar and quantitative economics the Michigan State output gap.
Can we measure the output gap that Myron of Harvard
is so fired up.
Speaker 4 (18:35):
About well output gaps are any measure of slack. Slack
frankly is going to be an estimate, right, You're going
to need a model, You're going to need to make
a lot of assumptions. So we can certainly have differences
of opinion about how those are put together, but you
know the ingredients of because at the end of the day,
(18:55):
the thing that we don't observe we get measures of,
say GDP growth, These are estimates, they get revised, but
we can go out and measure that. The thing that's
important for the gap is you have to get an
estimate of what's potential, like what's the best we could
be doing. And that's the piece that you know, you
can have discussions and changes. Big changes in immigration like
(19:17):
that can affect what potential output is, big changes in
technology and productivity that can affect what potential output is.
So you know, I think it's it's an art more
like science to get at those but you know that
these measures of slacker are really important. And I will
mention bringing it back to today and the data we're missing.
The big thing that we don't have from the private sectors.
(19:39):
We don't have a measure of slack in the labor market.
The unemployment rate is one of those you know, fits
in that measure of like workers looking for work that
don't have it versus workers who do have work.
Speaker 6 (19:54):
Claudia, what do we know now with a little bit
of experience here about the closing of the southern border
and that's impact on the US labor force? Uh?
Speaker 4 (20:07):
The the immigration statistics, you know, we what we need
are the information from the federal government on the you know,
unauthorized immigration in the country, the deportations. I mean, there
are there are data that are published. I think some
(20:28):
of those have been more lagged than in the past,
but it really is our population estimates, which the immigration
is just one piece into it. They tend to come
with very long lags. So I think this because policy
has changed so much and so rapidly that there's both
you know, reporting, the reporting lags, and then just putting
all the pieces together. So I think this we know
(20:50):
the direction, Like we can sign this in terms of
like immigration has slowed down dramatically, but to get really
precise and particularly in these decompositions of like oh well,
job creation is down to twenty thousand, you know, is
this high or is it low? What's the break even?
Speaker 7 (21:05):
Right?
Speaker 4 (21:06):
Those very precise calculations. We just don't have the input
data to make you know those fine points, and we
probably won't for some time.
Speaker 6 (21:14):
And Claudia, just away from the labor discussion for a moment.
The other side of the FED discussion is inflation. What's
your view of inflation right now in this economy?
Speaker 4 (21:26):
Right Well, inflation is elevated. It's it's and it has
been elevated for some time. I think it's in the
space of it's still a problem. Three percent inflation is
still higher than what people have been used to, particularly
before the pandemic, and the longer it last, it does
add up, right, and so it's a problem. I wouldn't
put wouldn't assign it being an acute problem, and I
(21:48):
think there are reasons to expect it to come to
come down.
Speaker 3 (21:54):
Now.
Speaker 4 (21:54):
On inflation, I think this is a place where we
really are much more flying blind. If the federal government
stays closed, we do not have as much data to
here watching this, Claude, You've.
Speaker 5 (22:04):
Got to run. I can't wait to have you on
for a real jobs Day again.
Speaker 2 (22:08):
Doctor Sam has been one of our foundation supporters here
her academics at New Century Advisor, of course iconic on
measuring slowdowns in America.
Speaker 5 (22:19):
Stay with us.
Speaker 2 (22:20):
More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.
Speaker 1 (22:30):
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Coarclay, and Android
Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen
live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station.
Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 5 (22:47):
Priam is isery here on a jobs day? Folks? It's
a non jobs day.
Speaker 2 (22:50):
But as pri as you and I were talking, the
dynamics of full faith and credit is price up and
yield down?
Speaker 5 (22:58):
What's the x axislo like? When is the when of lower?
Speaker 8 (23:02):
Yields have been declining in the last few months. You know,
if you compare it to say where we were at
the start of the year or even after Liberation Day,
when the concern was inflation may skyrocket, the Fed may
not be able to cut at all. They may be
the Cell America trade. What happens to the deficit? So
that's how the tenure got above four and a half?
Speaker 9 (23:25):
Why has it come down?
Speaker 8 (23:26):
Well, inflation has not picked up as much, So I
think that's allowing the FED to at least reduce the
level of restriction, and the deficit is marginally better because
we are statif as we've heard this, the tariff revenues
are improving the deficit, not the long run entitlement issue,
but at least near terms, So you know, I think
three seventy five to four and a quarter is our
(23:46):
range for now, so it is below where we are
right now.
Speaker 9 (23:49):
We like owning duration. One of the things.
Speaker 8 (23:53):
The reason we like it is even though you're in
that range, there's asymmetry, meaning there's more of a case
of rates to fall if you get either permanent lay
offs due to the shutdown or a slowing in you know,
the job market continues. There's a nonlinearity. I know, Tom,
you like to talk about nonlinearities in the job market.
Typically in the uneployment rate starts to go up and
(24:13):
goes up much faster. So for that asymmetry, we like
going in too.
Speaker 2 (24:16):
So silent controller and put me in the time out here.
I didn't introduce ms Messer correctly. Premium miser folks, corplus
fund at G. People are going to asset management.
Speaker 6 (24:24):
Very good the markets seem to be ignoring a shutdown,
it seems like, and is that something that is reasonable
from your perspective, given what's what could happen? I guess so.
Speaker 8 (24:35):
Historically shutdowns have been a bit of political theater, so
the market ignores it. President trum signed something in law
saying that they will be in twenty nineteen, saying.
Speaker 9 (24:44):
That people will get back paid.
Speaker 8 (24:46):
So you don't get paid whether you're working or four load,
but you will get paid at some point. If it's
a short shutdown, I think it's fine for the market
to ignore it. Why it could be a little bit
different this time is we've not historically heard during a
shutdown that the administration may actually have permanent layoffs. Now
maybe it's a negotiating stance, but if it actually results
(25:07):
in permanent layoffs, I think the market's not going to
ignore it.
Speaker 9 (25:11):
And the other one is how long does it last.
Speaker 8 (25:14):
You know, if it's a short shut down, you don't
really miss a paycheck, it's okay. You start to miss
one or two paychecks, the military starts to not get paid.
They're putting their lives on the line. I think then
the market's going to say, okay, Congress has to get
their act together. I think then the market will start
to increase risk premiums and you'll see an impact in rates,
(25:34):
and you'll see an impact in the agree market.
Speaker 6 (25:36):
All right, So we're not getting the nonfarm payroll data today,
but neither is the FED. I'm assuming unless they get
some little somebody's passes them a note under the desk.
So they're kind of flying blind a little bit too.
So how does that if we go a week or
two and they're not getting the data that they need
because they are data dependent, how do you think.
Speaker 5 (25:55):
The FED has How does that impact the FED?
Speaker 7 (25:57):
Either? Right?
Speaker 8 (25:58):
Great point, because this FED has set time and time
again that they are data dependent. They don't want to
rely on a model, they want to base it on data.
But you know, payrolls is a very important data release,
so is claim, so is CPI. But if we don't
have that, we look at what we call second tier
data releases. And on the labor market, I actually think
there's been a remarkable amount of consistency. We're not seeing
(26:21):
the layoffs, but we are seeing low hiring, whether it's surveys,
whether it's you know, actual hiring trends in the last
few months. So I think the FED looks at the
totality of the data and says there's some risks to
the labor market building. This is why they cut in September.
The risk management argument. I think you can make that
case for an October cut as well. I think given
that BLS is not collecting data, we shouldn't really expect
(26:44):
a very reliable, you know, October payroll report as well.
So I think this might be for the next few months.
They're going to have to look at a lot of
other data. I think given the starting point, we're at
four and a quarter on FED ones, they can cut
a few more times before it starts to get difficult
for them because now you're in the vicinity of neutral.
Now you need a much better credible sense of data.
Speaker 5 (27:04):
How do you respond? And I believe Governor Myron sy
help me here. We got Governor Myron in.
Speaker 2 (27:09):
The nine o'clock hour. I think, how do There's a
rangy debate, fabulous to moralic article in Bloomberg yesterday on
the neutral rate. The plug ins of the tailor rule
in that it's tangential to what you do, but when
you synthesize Ferulean chasm in and prea misra. Is there
(27:29):
anything we can believe it in the neutral rate or
is it just the fog out there?
Speaker 5 (27:34):
You just see the fog, the fog on Park Avenue.
Speaker 2 (27:37):
Yeah, comes down, sure, and you know it avoids the
JP market building special fog removerent is.
Speaker 5 (27:44):
A very nice fog in our neutral rate analysis.
Speaker 8 (27:47):
So there is always large amounts of uncertainty around the
neutral rate.
Speaker 9 (27:52):
It does move with structural reasons.
Speaker 8 (27:54):
So there's been this argument for the last few years
of the neutral rate is higher because corporate and business balance,
it's are better that there's more fiscal expansion, and then
Governor Myron is making the point that actually it's going
down because of tariffs and lower immigration. I think we're
not going to know, But what I am taking away
(28:14):
from that is whether it's three or two and a
half at funds, is it four and a quarter? You're
not hearing much from people saying actually, policy is not restrictive.
I think this will be the key question next day
of the fact that's three four times they get into
the vicinity of neutral, which I would say is two
and a half to three and a half. That's how
we're thinking about it, and so they can still cut
(28:35):
for now and then watch to see how do different
parts of the economy respond to interest rates. That's going
to be the best metric of how neutral how restrictive
are rates, And it's going to vary. If you're in
AI investment and may not be that restrictive. Housing it's
very restrictive.
Speaker 5 (28:51):
Also.
Speaker 2 (28:52):
Three stooges monetary policy step by steps exactly.
Speaker 6 (28:56):
If I'm a credit analyst in the Core plus bond fund,
so I haven't even bothered to get from my cubicle,
go to your corner office and it's you ideas, are
you open to taking credit risk?
Speaker 7 (29:06):
Oh?
Speaker 8 (29:06):
Absolutely, so we do like credit risk. We think we're
in a subtrend growth environment one to two percent. So
you know, the overall macro pictures positive for risk. Company
fundamentals look fabulous. I mean a few months ago I
was nervous that do company margins come down because they
absorb tariffs. We haven't seen that they've absorbed tariffs and
they've managed to keep margins high. So company fundamentals are strong.
(29:30):
But here's why I need to talk to the analysts
all the time. Dispersion is increasing, whether it's securitized credit,
whether it's investment grade credit with the LBO risk, whether
it's high yield. You are seeing some defaults. So we
need the analysts, We need the research to do the work,
not just at the broad sector level, but at the
company level, and then tell us this is what you overweight,
and importantly, this is what you underweight.
Speaker 2 (29:52):
Can I beg We'll give you three segments, will blow
out an hour. I want you to come here, the
guy that's wor guy of the woman walking into your office,
as Paul brilliantly describes who's looking at private credit. The
shadows there, the new CMBs tranches and all that. Bring
that mathematical beast with you. The two of you together
(30:16):
would be a real surveillance street. That would be really great.
Speaker 9 (30:19):
I like that.
Speaker 8 (30:20):
Yeah, I think I like that you bring up CMBs
because there you don't just have to look at the collateral.
If you look at the collateral, the servicer, the structure,
and see which tranch you're buying.
Speaker 9 (30:31):
So it requires a lot of work.
Speaker 2 (30:32):
We're going to make that happen. I think Eric still
he lost so much money last night in the game.
I'm not sure he's listening.
Speaker 5 (30:37):
Priam Israel had a non jobs they thank you so much.
She is with JP Morgan Asset Management. Stay with us.
Speaker 2 (30:44):
More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.
Speaker 1 (30:55):
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
starting at an am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto
with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us
live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg Terminal.
Speaker 2 (31:09):
The last time Tiffany Wilding was on, Folks, she was riveting.
I cannot it's a blur, folks like Paul and I
staggered from guests to guests, But I had the clearest
memory that she just absolutely nailed the tension out there. Yeah,
is witnessed by price and yield in.
Speaker 5 (31:27):
The American and absolutely.
Speaker 6 (31:28):
Tiffany Wilding joins us. She's an econmress for North America
for Pimco. Tiffany, were not getting the economic data that
we're used to getting that the market kind of feeds
off of. So let me ask you to step back
and just kind of give us your thirty thousand foot
view that you share with your clients these days about
this US economy.
Speaker 7 (31:49):
Yeah, well, so, yeah, I think taking a step back
what we've noticed is that the economy is behaving, you know,
somewhat differently than I think most people expected, just given
the veryious policy pivots that the Trump administration is implemented.
So obviously we've gotten really large tariff increases, we have
immigration policy, U turns, we have various other things, And
(32:11):
I think the surprising thing for many is that, you know,
the manifestation of those policy changes in the economy would
be through price level adjustments. And I think what we're
seeing as we go through the year and we're gaining
more information, is that companies aren't necessarily increasing prices by
as much as people expected. They are doing it on
the margin, but they're also trying to reduce costs. And
(32:34):
part of the way that they're reducing costs is they're
just maintaining their labor costs, so they're even trying to
actually reduce labor costs. So we've seen a pretty material
deceleration in labor market activity this year. We think that
part of the reason why they're choosing to do this
is that you have clashing forces. You have this immigration
(32:55):
you turn, there's less labor supply, less people coming into
the labor market, but you also have this technology boom,
that's also that's happening in the background, and so they're
trying to figure out how can we save money through
implementation of technology, and we think that's also having an
effect here. So I think that's why you're seeing more
concern at a federal Reserve officials more recently. We think
it's why they, you know, lowered took the first step
(33:17):
to start lowering interest rates again in September, and ultimately
we think that will be a reason for them to
cut a couple more times this year as that labor
market stays weak. But you know, twenty twenty six I
think does look a lot better as you get some
more of the one big beautiful bill stimulus that's you know,
that's hitting the economy to offset all of this.
Speaker 6 (33:36):
Yeah, that's kind of where I wanted to go, Tiffany
about twenty twenty six and the tax cuts, the credits,
those things that were in fact included in that tax bill.
Are you putting that into your model in twenty twenty
six as a driver of this economy.
Speaker 7 (33:52):
Yeah, I mean so if you look at you know,
the tax cuts were retroactive, which is which means means
that you know, both businesses and households will get a
one time larger check. You're seeing that in the business
tax data already that the Treasury publishes, but you're also
(34:13):
going to see it when consumers, when households file for
refunds early next year. The refund checks are going to
be large, especially those households that work jobs that where
they work overtime. Any tax is paid in twenty twenty
five on overtime is basically going to be rebated back
to them at the beginning of twenty twenty six. So
that's going to be a pretty large refund check. In
addition to the enhanced child tax credits, et cetera. So
(34:36):
we think that will help. It's a one time thing
for sure, you know, in terms of the retroactiveness of it,
but it will help to sort of bridge the economy
through this period of weakness we think, you know, as
you know, as you have the tariffs that are also
starting to bite.
Speaker 2 (34:51):
Our global technical director wants to know if he can
you know the rebate he's going to get for overtime.
Speaker 5 (34:57):
Yeah, I mean, you know, is that incoming boom boom.
Speaker 2 (35:00):
I think that's going to be a brilliant Tiffany Wilding
with us with Pimco. Tiffany I just brought up Atlanta
GDP now three point eight four to two percent. I
did a regression back to the end of twenty twenty
two the Yardnni and Campora low and the answer is
where plus a solid one point two standard deviations. We've
(35:21):
been there. This is a third time. I mean, is
that a one off kind of boom? Do you think
it just pulls back or do we just completely misjudge
this sustained real GDP is Tarsan slock of Apollo mentioned
earlier this week.
Speaker 7 (35:39):
Yeah, well, I think we've gotten we got really good
news with the recent revisions to second quarter GDP, which
also included you know what the BEA calls annual benchmark revisions,
and they kind of knew data that's more complete that
is included in that. And one of the big things
that was revised higher was the savings rate over the
(36:01):
last several years. So it just suggests that, you know,
consumers have a bigger buffer here. We've been talking about
this sort of K shaped economy now for a couple
of years where you have you know, higher end consumers
that have you know, higher wealth as a result of
increasing housing prices and equity markets since the pandemic, et cetera.
And so you have consumers that have a bigger buffer
(36:23):
coming into this period, and that argues for them just
to be more resilient. We think that the resilience and
the consumer that you're seeing is related to that. You know, ultimately,
we think you still will see some slow down in
the fourth quarter, but yeah, the consumer looks better, Tiffany.
Speaker 5 (36:38):
I'm sorry, it wasn't focused there.
Speaker 2 (36:39):
Amory Horning just came up to our gorgeous studio and
placed your New York Yankees jacket like the one Lisa
has on the glass. Wow, Tiffany said, I was a rattle. Tiffany,
I got an average line and that regression of Atlanta GDP.
Now the average line back to the Denny and Compori
(37:01):
stock market low October twenty twenty two, Ready, Paul, two
point six percent?
Speaker 5 (37:07):
Yeah is average? Yeah?
Speaker 2 (37:09):
Have we just misjudged, Tiffany the boom that we're in
because of technology.
Speaker 5 (37:16):
Yeah?
Speaker 7 (37:16):
Well, so, I think that you're absolutely right. Growth has
been since the pandemic closer to two and a half
to three percent. But we think one of the reasons
why that's happening is because you've all over that period,
you also had an immigration boom that was happening, and
that people come into the country, they consume, They not
(37:38):
only work, but they consume, and so you had those
inflows that were also resulting in higher growth performance. So
we do think that part of the reason why growth
was so elevated in that period that is coming off
now as you have a U turn in that policy.
So we think the underlying level of growth in the
US economy has stepped down from that two and a
(38:00):
half to three percent pace, you know, to something closer
to two percent where we were pre pandemic, you know.
And then I think that broader question is how much
is you know, the technology related investment trends that we're
seeing associated with AI. How much room does that have
to run? And how much of a boost could we
have from that? And we think that there is some
room for that to run. It does look like we're
(38:22):
in the early stages of that. Even though the equity
markets have have been trading that theme for quite some time.
The actual investment that we're getting in terms of data centers,
you know, and the hard investments, we think that is
actually just kind of more in the early days here,
so that has some more room to run.
Speaker 5 (38:38):
Tiffany well, and thank you so much.
Speaker 2 (38:40):
Love when you come on, I kind of thank you
North America, pim Co, just absolutely brilliant.
Speaker 1 (38:45):
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,
and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday,
seven to ten am Easter and on Bloomberg dot com,
the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app.
You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube
(39:05):
and always on the Bloomberg terminal
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