June 16, 2025 • 43 mins
Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.
Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyJune 16th, 2025
Featuring:
1) Ed Morse, Senior Advisor at Hartree Partners and former Head of Global Commodities at Citi, joins for an extended discussion on the outlook for global oil and commodities. The hostilities between Israel and Iran disrupted market momentum, but traders increasingly anticipate that the conflict will remain contained, leading to dip-buying on Monday. In the premarket, Brent crude dropped 0.4% after initially soaring as much as 5.5% following a weekend of attacks. Gold dropped 0.5% from Friday’s all-time high.
2) Henrietta Treyz, co-founder at Veda Partners, joins to discuss the latest DC headlines including President Trump's trip to the G7 in Canada and the US' role in the Israel-Iran conflict. The conflict has caused damage to the US consulate in Tel Aviv, and has led to a rise in global energy prices. Hostilities between Israel and Iran have entered a fourth day, with no sign of easing, and have resulted in hundreds of deaths.
3) Cam Harvey, professor at Duke's Fuqua School of Business, looks ahead to this week's Fed meeting and talks about why gold is continuing to rise as a hedge. Markets are looking ahead to interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan, as well as a meeting of the Group of Seven nations, later this week.
4) Whitney Tilson, NYC mayoral candidate and former hedge fund manager, talks about his candidacy for NYC mayor ahead of the Democratic primary next week. Early voters are flocking to polls as leaders are emerging in the packed list of candidates: former NY Governor Andrew Cuomo and state assemblyman Zohran Mamdani.
5) Lisa Mateo joins with the latest headlines in newspapers across the US, including WSJ's story on the next big thing in luxury travel and Bloomberg Screentime's story on YouTube serving as a longform platform for videos.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg
Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern
on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.
Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch
(00:25):
us live on YouTube bed Mars.
Speaker 2 (00:27):
With Hard Treat Right now and publishing. And with that question,
we welcome all of you worldwide. Ever Morse, welcome to Bloomberg.
Thank you so much for joining.
Speaker 3 (00:35):
Us, Thanks for having me. It's good to hear you again.
Speaker 2 (00:37):
Ed. I just want to focus on it Ran. I
think there's a huge misunderstanding of Persia, the simplistic stuff
in the media as well. If you were to speak
to the president or to every American today, what's the
greatest misconception we get wrong about Iranian oil and gas?
Speaker 3 (01:00):
I don't know what the misconceptions can be. I think
people think that Iran is just overflowing with oil and gas,
and that may be true in theory, but it's not
true in practice. So they've had a stifling of their
oil production, they've had a disaster in their gas production,
despite the fact that they're sitting on probably the second
largest center reserves in the world, and actually what might
(01:22):
do them in has been the Israeli bombing of their
natural gas facilities.
Speaker 2 (01:27):
Paul as the smartest question of the day. Can there
be a regime change? I mean, let's go back to
nineteen seventy nine. Paul's too young to remember this, but
you and I the absolute shock of moving from the
shah over to a theocracy. To be polite about it,
can we have a regime change?
Speaker 3 (01:45):
As Paul ass well, certainly the Israelis are aiming for
a regime change. Whether they get it now or whether
it happens at another time remains to be seen. The
underlying position of the government is very, very weak. They
do not enjoy the legitimate of the public. They do
not enjoy happiness in the public. They have unbelievably high inflation,
(02:08):
reaching forty percent or higher. They have a currency that
remains in a world of depreciating currencies. They have no
access to health and other things that people who are
middle class want, and there are a lot of them.
So we have a government that's a combination, a very
strong combination of elected officials, a theocracy headed by somebody
(02:32):
who certainly is going to be not with us. Very
long given his health situation in his age, and it
has the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which is not exactly
the most popular group in the world in terms of
governments or governance. So yes, I'd say that there's weakness
(02:53):
in the governance structure, but saying it's going to be
overthrown overnight is another matter.
Speaker 4 (02:58):
What is the role of open opec plus in times
of these types of risk geopolitical risks in the Middle East?
Speaker 5 (03:05):
What are they doing well?
Speaker 3 (03:07):
Opech Plus is a bunch of countries and their main
objective has been to put a floor under prices. They
are in a complicated position at the moment. That complication
results from on the geopolitical side, all of the major
countries having new relationships with Iran, that includes Russia, that
(03:30):
includes Saudi Arabia and the UAE, where China has pushed
them to normalize relationships. They are articulating a position of criticism.
I would call it much more than that of Israel,
for it's what they call aggressive acts, but they want
to stay out of it, and they have a more
(03:51):
complicated situation at hand. So we have to remember that
before this started, before that spike we saw last Friday
in oil prices. They are on the one hand, concerned
about weakness in the oil market, and on the other
hand pushing for weakness in the oil market. They continue
to want to push for a weakness for a variety
(04:12):
of complicated reasons for Bloomberg.
Speaker 2 (04:13):
Our conversation of the day Edward Morse was this of
Princeton tangentially with Rice University, many other institutions over the years,
and of course the Council on Foreign Relations with Hartree,
doctor Morris. As simply as I can make it, you
were teaching at Princeton in the middle seventies and the
State Department called, and you had the privilege in nineteen
seventy eight of really driving forward our energy policy. I think,
(04:38):
I guess, I say, what would you say to Secretary Rubio?
But I'm not sure what Secret Rubio's doing other than
watching a parade. What would you say to the president now?
Given our original diplomacy and foreign policy.
Speaker 3 (04:54):
Well, actually some of the things that the government is
doing now are laudatory. And you know, the president had
and he created, he had the view of energy dominance
as the international position of the US, and he doesn't
have to fight hard for energy dominance, even though it's
a difficult word to try to digest, but the US
(05:17):
is the largest oil producing country in the world. The
US oil production total liquids production is greater than the
combined production of Saudi Arabia and Russia.
Speaker 2 (05:27):
So I need to interrupt. This is too important. Are
you critical of the Iranian diplomacy of the United States
is associated with President Obama, Secretary of State Kerrie and
Wendy Sherman as well. Are you're critical of that era
of six, seven, eight, ten years ago.
Speaker 3 (05:45):
I'm critical of one thing that I think looms very large,
and John Carey's name is associated with it. When we
had the push for a clean energy world and the
US was in a leadership position on it, we also
had view official view that we not only want to
get rid of oil and the emissions from burning oil
(06:06):
as a transport fuel, but we have the view that
we should get rid of natural gas as a fossil fuel,
and that really set us back because fossil fuels, we
can't get to net zero without actually using a lot
of natural gas. We have to use it carefully. We
have to make sure that methane emissions are controlled, but
(06:29):
not allowing pipelines to be built for natural gas. Not
pushing for natural gas in the overall displacement of oil
and discouraging oil's use was a mistake in my mind
and set us back on the road to a cleaner world.
And when we come to natural gas. By the way,
(06:50):
the US is the largest producer in the world. We
have the largest exporter in the world, both of oil
and natural gas. And if you look at the next
five years, the US is going to keep that up
and remain the largest exporter with the largest growth fifty
percent of the growth of gas utilization and production, but
(07:10):
we're going to be exporting most of it is coming
from the US. It's a very important tool for economics
and for the energy transition.
Speaker 4 (07:18):
Does the US play any type of role visa vi
Opek now that the US is not only energy independent
but the largest producer.
Speaker 3 (07:27):
Sure, well, we have a complicated role to play. The role,
by definition is that we stopped the Saudis and OPEC
from having an effect of reducing their production. You may
remember several years ago when the Saudis and seven other
countries aid, actually to begin with down to seven other countries,
said we're going to put out voluntary cuts. They've cut
(07:49):
two point two million barrels a day several years ago,
and they don't know how to put that oil back
in the market, So they're now trying to put that
oil back in the market. Two point two million barrels
a day in the market with very limited demand is
hard to do without lowering prices. Sadi Arabian and the
UAE know that Trump wants to lower prices, and they're
they're they're using their own desire to reduce the capacity
(08:12):
of other countries to produce oil, even the United States
by closing more closely their relationship with the US. So
it's complicated. What they want to do should anger the US,
but it's pleasing Trump.
Speaker 5 (08:26):
The straight of hor.
Speaker 4 (08:26):
Moves, I think we've all of our listeners and viewers
have brilliant brilliant.
Speaker 2 (08:32):
Have you swum the straight of Hormos.
Speaker 3 (08:34):
I haven't tried to do that, but I've seen it.
Speaker 5 (08:37):
That's important for global oil, isn't it.
Speaker 4 (08:40):
And what's the risk that that straight of hor moves
may be compromised by right?
Speaker 3 (08:44):
Yeah, well, let me put numbers on it. So twenty
plus million barrels a day flow through the straight of
horm moves every single day. Wow, that is not quite
half of global oil flows, but you know it's more
than a third. And the alternative roots are pipeline from
the east to the west coast of Saudi Arabia and
a pipeline through fujaira part of the UAE, which sticks
(09:06):
up and creates the Straight of horm moves, but you
can avoid it by a pipeline that they have going
through it. The combined two pipelines is eight million a day.
So the best that we can do is limit if
the straight is closed to a disruption of fourteen million
a day, that would bring prices to one hundred and thirty.
Who knows what the number would be, but it would happen,
(09:27):
and it would take months to clear the Strait of
Horn moves. So the issue is not the importance of
the Strait of horm Moose so much as are the
Iranians going to dare to do this? And the Chinese
have absolutely said don't you dare, And the Russians have
said don't you dare. And the Russians also have an
interest in the Strait of Horme moves because part of
the Russian exports of the world are exports to Saudi Arabia,
(09:49):
and here we come to the complicated summer where we
have a record amount of crude burn in Saudi Arabia
and the rest of the Middle East, and they need
dirty oil from somewhere else to enable them to produce
and export the oil. We estimate that the increase in
oil demand this summer is about a million barrels a
(10:09):
day because it's the hotest summer on record, and that's
another bind. But I think there's a lot of pressure
to Hey to say that the Iranian's hands off the
straight open wars, don't you, dare?
Speaker 2 (10:21):
Edward Morris one final question, with great honor to your
decades at the Wilson Institute at Princeton. In all Robert D.
Kaplan talks about the people of Persia. You've talked about
them as being the legitimate middle class and sophistication of
the Middle East. Do the people of Persia have a
(10:42):
voice in this, as Paul mentioned earlier, where they find
something after the Kamandie theocracy.
Speaker 3 (10:49):
They do, and they don't. They're afraid to have generalized protests,
even if it's sort we had in the United States
over the weekend. We have clear evidence that the bombing
in the north has led to a massive exodus of people.
So there are people who are unhappy. Do they want
to be ruled by Netanyahu?
Speaker 2 (11:07):
No? So what's a worse prescription for the United States
to assist the people of Persia?
Speaker 3 (11:13):
I think the US should be doing what it's doing,
namely staying out of it, telling them both that they
want to negotiate an agreement on Iran's nuclear future. And
I think there is something to that, because Iran is
in a desperate getting to be in a desperate position.
They have logically failed. They have visibly failed to protect
(11:36):
the people of Iran. They visibly failed to protect themselves
as a government, given the failure of the proxies and
the way the Israelis eliminated them. So I think it's
inevitable that there's going to be an agreement in the US.
I think needs to have its hands in that agreement
to make it work.
Speaker 2 (11:54):
Doctor marsh thank you so much for joining Bloomberg this morning.
Edward Marris of Hartree, of course, definitive on the Mediterranean
and our hydrocarbons in America.
Speaker 1 (12:09):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast Catch Us live
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Speaker 2 (12:22):
Henria Trace joins US right now at Veta Partners. Henriette.
I really want to stay in the Eastern Mediterranean because
that's where the news is. But I guess I've got
to ask, how will President Trump be greeted by the
G six.
Speaker 6 (12:38):
That's a very valid question.
Speaker 7 (12:41):
I have to assume that there's going to be a
lot of skepticism around him, thinking that Vladimir Putin is
going to be the chief arbiter of negotiations and peace
between Iran and Israel.
Speaker 6 (12:51):
That has to be first and foremost one of their questions.
Speaker 7 (12:54):
As we are on the US side sending tankers and
interceptors over across the Atlantic right now to keep the peace,
should we ever get to that often and fall again?
Speaker 2 (13:04):
The USS nimics moving from Asia West to the Middle.
Speaker 5 (13:09):
East, absolutely, Henriette.
Speaker 4 (13:11):
What's the feeling in Washington, DC these days about the
role that the US either is playing or may not
be playing fully enough in the Middle East?
Speaker 5 (13:20):
What's the what are the folks in DC? Thinking?
Speaker 6 (13:23):
Well?
Speaker 7 (13:23):
As usual the Democratic Party is sort of spinning its
wheels on this, but the Republican Party is really trying
to come up with a cohesive position around whatever it
is that the president's platform is. We see in Washington
that the Republican Party very much, especially when it comes
to foreign policy, takes its direction from the President. So
first and foremost, i'd say that the sanctions bill that
we had pending towards Russia is off the table.
Speaker 6 (13:45):
For right now.
Speaker 7 (13:46):
Not only can you not do that when gas prices spike,
which is a risk that we have at this juncture,
but I think any pressure on the administration from a
let me force your hand on political and foreign.
Speaker 6 (13:57):
Policy is not what they're going to do.
Speaker 7 (13:58):
So that sanctions bill that's fun answered by about eighty
two members of the Senate and had clearance in the
House is.
Speaker 6 (14:04):
Not going to move.
Speaker 7 (14:05):
I think is the first casualty as they wait to
see how things play out over the next couple of
days with Israel, whether it escalates and things get.
Speaker 6 (14:13):
More tense or not. But they're probably going to just
pivot to the tax bill at this point.
Speaker 4 (14:16):
That's kind of where I want to go, Henriette. I mean,
I guess we have the G seven, we have the
Mid East. There's a lot of issues out there for
folks to focus on and its administration to focus on.
But the folks in Congress, they got to get a
tax bill moved.
Speaker 5 (14:29):
Where are we on that. There's a lot of legislation there.
Speaker 7 (14:33):
Yeah, So tonight at around six o'clock, the Senate Finance Committee.
Speaker 6 (14:36):
Is going to release a portion of their bill. It's
not going to be comprehensive. They're going to keep the
stickiest stuff for later.
Speaker 7 (14:41):
That includes the solid PAP as I know you guys
like to talk about. The tax bill is going to
start to become public and it's going to get slammed.
And the thing that's really tough about this for members
is that they only have a week three day week
reset three day week work schedule today this Massa, So
they're only going to be here tonight tomorrow on Wednesday,
(15:03):
and then they're out of town.
Speaker 6 (15:04):
So releasing legislation and that kind of.
Speaker 7 (15:05):
An environment is tricky because then you put sunlight on
it and you leave, and that allows whoever is your
distractor to come in and spend the next five straight
days smashing the legislation, which is going to be what
happens here.
Speaker 2 (15:17):
We continue with Henrietta Treys of Aida Partners. Good morning
on your commute across the nation. Good morning, and Henrietta
Treys Louisiana as well, Serious XEM Channel one twenty one.
Good morning, particularly across Canada in ben or Banff. Okay,
we're gonna go Banf. We'll see David Girl be with
(15:38):
us later. And a gun on YouTube. We're just humbled
by the YouTube build out. I just really can't say
enough about that. Subscribe to Bloomberg Podcast, Henrietta, I want
to pause. And this came into my puny head this
weekend watching golf and watching Devers in a Red Sox
uniform and all that. Hendrietta, I think we have three wars.
(16:01):
We have a real war in Ukraine. We have a
real war spanning Israel and Persia, and I guess Gaza
is a sort of kind of like war as well.
Have we ever done this in America? Had a three
front war?
Speaker 7 (16:17):
You know, I would say that we haven't had a
three front war with a president who has.
Speaker 6 (16:22):
Said I alone can fix it. I think that's maybe
the distinguishing feature here.
Speaker 7 (16:26):
I was with former Speaker Kevin McCarthy recently, and he
said the reason that we voted for Trump is because
nobody would dare mess with anybody and nobody would step
out a line as long as President Trump is in office.
Speaker 6 (16:36):
And obviously that's not the piece.
Speaker 7 (16:38):
There's no peace in Ukraine, there's no piece in and
it's expanding in Israel to Ran and I think that's
probably the core of the problem here.
Speaker 2 (16:45):
How is the Pentagon in a harms way? How are
they dealing with a two and a half front war.
Speaker 7 (16:54):
Right and also preparing for whatever it is that's going
on with China. I think as we watch all this
stuff that keeps the NSA up at night, is really
what is China seeing from all this and what.
Speaker 2 (17:04):
It Wait wait, I got to interrupt. How can the
NSA be up at night when Marco Rubio's yawning on
the parade stand he's running NSC Maybe.
Speaker 6 (17:15):
Because he's up at night.
Speaker 7 (17:16):
I don't know, but you know, certainly the expansion here
and the tariffs that are on across.
Speaker 6 (17:24):
The globe and China, as you know, the core focus.
Speaker 7 (17:27):
I'll go back to that sanctions, but we were going
to do a secondary sanctions package potentially on China and Iran.
Speaker 6 (17:34):
To help contain Russia.
Speaker 7 (17:36):
And that's plainly not in the cards if gas prices
are rising. So I think those are other pieces that
you know, at least former NSA officials have been very
concerned about. I assume Rubio is as well.
Speaker 4 (17:48):
The good folks down in Washington, DC, collectively, Henriette, how
do they feel about I mean, it seems like inflation's
just right over the horizon, whether it's rising oil prices
coming out of the mid East, the tariffs, sang, all
these types of things. Boy, it really runs the risk
for higher inflation. I wonder if our good friends in
Washington are aware of that.
Speaker 6 (18:08):
Yeah, I think that they are.
Speaker 7 (18:10):
They try not to talk about it downplay. There's a
really good example coming from Ron Johnson, who has a
lot of negative things to say about the tax bill,
and he's been told by the President, Look, you can
have negative opinions about the tax bill, but don't bring
them up in public.
Speaker 6 (18:24):
And I think that's a lot of what you're seeing
from members.
Speaker 7 (18:26):
They end up shifting and deflecting onto other topics. So
whenever you have a conversation about inflation, they quickly pivot to, oh,
well this will wrap up, or oh, well, this is
not going to be extended a lot of you know,
we'll be getting deals soon.
Speaker 6 (18:38):
On the tirefront.
Speaker 7 (18:39):
And the reality on the tariffront I can't stress enough
is that tariffs are going to rise from here for
many countries, most nations, we're going to get a permanent
flat rate that could be between ten and twenty five percent,
and then other tier rates are going to rise on Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia,
sector specific.
Speaker 6 (18:55):
There's a lot more to come.
Speaker 2 (18:56):
We got to help you, Andre Atta it with your research.
You're going around the room quickly. We go to surveillance.
Costco correspond to Lisa Matail. Lisa Matail, is there inflation
at Costco?
Speaker 8 (19:06):
Yes, there is, believe me.
Speaker 2 (19:08):
What's an item that's killing you?
Speaker 9 (19:10):
The item that's killing me? It's probably no. The eggs
have gotten better. Actually I have to do say that
produce but yeah, no the meats.
Speaker 2 (19:17):
The meats, Yeah, meats. I don't even need anymore too. So,
Michael Barr, where's the inflation in the barhouse? Besides you
losing money into San Francisco forty nine ers. I'm just
going to come out and say it.
Speaker 4 (19:28):
Liquor, Yeah, sure, yeah, it really is is the beverage
of your choice?
Speaker 2 (19:32):
The beverage of my choice? Man? It is going on? Oh,
where's the inflation?
Speaker 4 (19:35):
I just paid over three dollars a gallon yesterday, which
is first time.
Speaker 2 (19:39):
Let's go there, Hendriana Treys. I mean, Paul goes to
the heart of the matter that matters. If Capitol Hill doesn't.
Speaker 6 (19:45):
It, it absolutely does for me. You know, I'm a
good millennial.
Speaker 7 (19:49):
I don't even shop at Starbucks, and now I'm paying
twenty dollars for a bag of coffee at grinds.
Speaker 6 (19:52):
My gears that.
Speaker 2 (19:56):
I have a big bottle of olive oil thirty one dollars.
It used to be twenty three bucks. It's not a
fancy one. It's not like some It's not like what
Lisa has. You know where you.
Speaker 5 (20:07):
Can't put master Italian.
Speaker 2 (20:08):
Hendrita Trace, brilliant. Thank you for the brief this morning, Henrietta, quickly,
I hope she's not gone?
Speaker 5 (20:14):
Is it? Is it?
Speaker 2 (20:15):
Ban or Ben?
Speaker 5 (20:17):
Oh?
Speaker 6 (20:18):
My pay grade?
Speaker 2 (20:19):
Okay, thank you, Hadria Trace, Thank you so much, Greatly
appreciated Invader partners.
Speaker 1 (20:24):
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Corplay and Android
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Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 2 (20:41):
Paul Bucks when he says, get the guy from Duka
and the guy with the bass violin in the background,
a cella whatever it is. But what's really important here
is Cam Harvey, professor at Duke's Business School, is incredibly
informed about the stuff tangential to our monetary policy.
Speaker 4 (20:59):
Paul cam Harvey joins this year Professor of Finance at
the Fucal School of Business at Duke University. Hey, Cam,
we're going to hear from the FED on Wednesday. I
know you've been critical of this FED for looking I
guess maybe a little bit too much in the rear
view mirror.
Speaker 5 (21:12):
What do you expect to hear from the FED this week?
Speaker 10 (21:16):
So almost nothing, and it's going to be very, very frustrating.
And there's a lot of pressure on the FED from
the political side. So the President has called for like
one hundred basis point cut. The Vice President has accused
(21:37):
the Chair of the FED of conducting monetary malpractice. So
this is kind of serious sort of schism between the
executive branch and the supposedly independent FED. So the way
that I look at it, and this is nothing new,
(22:00):
I'm actually in favor of aggressive cuts, and indeed I've
been in favor of cuts for over a year. So
I do believe the rate is too high and we
need to fix that. And the reason I think is
fairly evident. So we are in a structural deficit situation
(22:23):
where we've got a one point nine trillion dollar deficit
at a time when we've got decent economic growth, record
low unemployment, inflation with a two handle. That doesn't make
any sense. That might make sense to have a one
point nine trillion dollar deficit if we're in a crisis
or a war, but we're not. So something has to happen.
(22:47):
And we've discovered painfully that cutting the expenditures like dojing
is not going to get us there. It's not going
to get us to like a balanced budget. So something
needs to be done. And what is the easiest thing
in terms of lack of pain, is increase growth. When
(23:11):
you grow faster, the revenues come in. You don't need
to increase that tax rate when you grow faster, revenues
come in, so we need a boost in terms of growth,
and one way to facilitate that is to reduce the
Fed Fund's rate. That that's a good thing for growth.
Speaker 4 (23:32):
So we had some inflation data over the last week
at PPI. CPI doesn't seem to be creeping into the
economy just yet. I know a lot of folks were
concerned about tariffs and their inflationary pressures. How do you
think about tariffs and the impact on maybe economic growth,
maybe inflation.
Speaker 10 (23:51):
So tariffs are a tax, so when we increase taxes,
that's bad for growth. But we also need to realize
that imports are a fairly small part of our economy.
So only fourteen percent of GDP is linked to imports,
(24:12):
so we can absorb and increase in tariffs without too
much damage. Nevertheless, it's damage. So in the ideal scenario,
and I said this months ago, the ideal scenario is
that this leads to a situation where there is a
(24:33):
level playing field and terriffs are actually reduced. And importantly,
it's not just terriffs, it's the non tariff barriers. So
the headline numbers kind of mask what is going on.
And if we've got a situation like that that could
also boost economic growth. I know it's chaotic right now,
and I'm not a tariff person, but we need growth.
Speaker 2 (24:57):
I want to go back to your seminal work, Kim Harvey,
Consumption recovering expectations of consumption growth? Can you aggregate America? Now?
Are we so paralyzed in our bellism that there's two
Americas out there?
Speaker 10 (25:13):
So it's a great point. And most of our models
and economics have what's called a representative consumer, which is
code for everybody's the same, and that's just not the
case anymore. So we're very heterogeneous. And I've argued that
(25:36):
that part of kind of the decreasing volatility.
Speaker 2 (25:40):
Of the business cycles.
Speaker 10 (25:41):
So our business cycles are way milder than in the past,
even considering the global financial crisis and COVID, So they're
less frequent and they're milder.
Speaker 1 (25:53):
And this is.
Speaker 10 (25:54):
Because there are a couple of classes of consumers at least,
and there's one class that is very well off and
they just don't respond. So inflation goes up, there's nobod
deal to them. They just buy.
Speaker 2 (26:09):
And so I got time for one more question. We
got to move on there with breaking news, including a
presidential tweet. Kim Harvey, I can think the only equivalent
of Laurence Summers. A few years ago. You had a
doctoral dissertation with not one, not two, but three Nobel
Prize winners. You had to sit in a room with Fama, Merton, Miller,
(26:32):
and Hanson. Is that true? Yes? How did you survive that?
Speaker 10 (26:38):
So they did not have the Nobels when they were
on my committee? There were many of my professors did
not either, but yet it was it was a challenge. Indeed,
my strategy and one of my seminars was just to
stand back and let them go at it.
Speaker 2 (26:59):
You're talking about would you have been benefited by the
AI your students are using a duke right now?
Speaker 10 (27:06):
Oh, everybody will benefit from that. Yeah, definitely. So it's
a great tool for kind of enhancing your research. It's
like a research assistant. It's remarkable.
Speaker 2 (27:17):
You never have a time. Kim Harvey, thank you so
much out of Canada with his graduate work at Chicago
and folks, I'll tell you the privilege you're talking to you,
Gene Fom about Chicago economics over the years at Lars
Hansen to an extent is a noted Kim Harvey there
of Paul Sweeney's Duke University.
Speaker 1 (27:46):
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto
with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also watch us
live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg and.
Speaker 2 (28:00):
All for all of you nationwide. We are transfixed in
New York City by a mayoral race. There is an
election in November, which months ago was like, no big
deal because there's twelve Republicans in New York City. But
all of a sudden, it's like, Okay, this could be
a really interesting election because this candidate is an independent.
This one's an independent. There'll be four even five people
(28:22):
on the ballot. Governor Cromo was in the other day.
As a disclaimer, I want to make clear that he's
received the endorsement of mister Bloomberg. Michael Bloomberg is the
owner of various sundry Bloomberg events, including Bloomberg LP in,
Bloomberg Television, in radio. Whitney Tilson joins us right now
after surviving the race. Is mister Krome said. Whitney Tilson
(28:46):
is a financial guy in a hedge fund community and such,
and has gone through the public process of being a candidate.
This word cross endors in rank voting. Can you cross
endorse Governor Cuomo this morning?
Speaker 11 (29:03):
Yes, And it's not a cross endorsement because I haven't
asked for his endorsement in return. But at the on
the mayoral stage at the last debate on Thursday night,
when asked, I was the only candidate who was willing
to say who I would vote.
Speaker 2 (29:16):
No, just that why are you the only candidate that's
lining up buying Cuomo? Jessica did in the Queens. I
believe it was as.
Speaker 11 (29:25):
Well because the rest of the candidates are more progressive
lefty types, and Cuomo and I are the only two
people in the moderate lane. So I'm happy to throw
my support behind him and just say, don't rank zoo
on Mom Dannie, who's the far lefty thirty three year
old inexperienced Democratic socialists.
Speaker 4 (29:47):
Whitney, crime, homelessness. If you ask I think the average
New Yorker those two topics would be at or near
the top of their list of concerns.
Speaker 11 (29:56):
Yes, second only to housing and affordability. Yep, do you
deal with that issue?
Speaker 5 (30:02):
Brobably tied together.
Speaker 11 (30:03):
Well, it's a tough one. There's no quick solution. But
a bunch of legislation passed five years ago that effectively
decriminalized all low level crime. Not surprisingly, shocker, you had
a huge increase and New Yorker has got upset and
we're in the process slowly, too slowly, rolling some of
that back. But it demoralized police and we've were down
(30:24):
to a thirty four year low in the number of
police officers. The good news, however, is that on his
fourth attempt is fourth police commissioner in three years. Eric Adams,
our current mayor, was sort of forced to hire a
competent person, Jessica Tish, who has came in in November.
She's done a great job, got more police out in
the streets started and forcing quality of life stuff. The
(30:44):
murder rate is down twenty eight percent year to date,
shootings are down twenty one percent. Almost every type of
crime is down smaller amounts, but so I'm hopeful that
we're going in the right direction for the first time
in five years.
Speaker 4 (30:57):
Housing affordability top of the list. Been in this city
for a long time. It's always been an issue.
Speaker 5 (31:03):
Everybody wants to come to New York. And we know why.
Speaker 4 (31:06):
I don't care what's going on in the world or
what's going on with the city. People keep flooding into
the city. You see every single day. How do we
house these folks?
Speaker 11 (31:14):
Yeah, I should say one more just got added to
that list yesterday. My youngest daughter graduated from college in
Minnesota on Saturday, and she has already accepted a job
back in New York. My third daughter, all three of
them are now back in New York working building their
lives here. It's the greatest city in the world, but
housing is key. My youngest daughter is going to be
living at home because she can't afford on a teacher's
(31:35):
salary to live in New York. So what do you
have to do to do about it? For words, if
I were to summarize unleash the private sector, all the
candidates have their various proposals because voters are screaming about
this issue. I'm the only one who said there's not
primarily a governmental solution. Trust me, the private sector wants
(31:55):
to invest in the richest city in the world with
a sixty year low vacancy rate. But we've just put
up so much the zoning ranks environmental ranks, the city
bureaucracy where they have to hire expediters to try and
navigate the city bureaucracy. We've got to clear that out
and shorten what's a four year process on average down
to a two year process, which is what it was
(32:15):
under Mike Bloomberg. And the difference in two years and
four years to project start to finish in a higher
interest rate environment like today, is a viable project or
a non viable project?
Speaker 2 (32:27):
I look at it. I brought this up with Governor Cuomo.
The election to ed Cotch One where Mario Cuomo, Governor
Cuomo's father took Staten Island, and I believe Brooklyn I
can't remember, but Doo took Bronx, and you know Bella
Abzug took Manhattan, but ed catch one. With this Democratic primary,
(32:48):
how does Whitney Tilson frame the first Tuesday of November
all of a sudden, It's complex.
Speaker 11 (32:55):
Yes, it's particularly complex is we have the primary coming
up in eight days and ranked choice, so voters can
rank up to five candidates. The way the polling looks
right now is whatever round of ranked choice, as as
other candidates are eliminated, it's going to come down to
Andrew Cuomo, the former governor, and Zoron Mamdannie, the thirty
three year old sort of phenom who's run a great
(33:17):
campaign but is very dangerously in experience, has radical views.
I'll just point your listeners read the New York Times
editorial today. New York Times, the liberal lefty paper of record,
just destroyed Zoron Mamdanni and their editorial today. He said
he's completely unqualified, his ideas are extremists, would be the
ruin of this city is effectively what they just said.
(33:38):
So they said, don't rank mom Donnie, and then they said,
whatever your feelings are about Cuomo, rank him somewhere. They
had a mixed view of Cuomo. And then they said,
Whitney Tilson is the heir to Mike Bloomberg, and if
you're a moderate, vote for him. So that was I
was thrilled by that.
Speaker 2 (33:54):
What are we going to see in November if Whitney
Tilson doesn't get traction.
Speaker 11 (33:58):
Well I will. I am only running in the Democratic primary,
and realistically, with eight days left, there's a very narrow
path for me to win the primary. If I don't
win the primary, I will not be there in November November.
What's interesting is is both Mom, Donnie and Cuomo, regardless
of which one wins and loses, is likely to be
in November. And then you have the current mayor, Eric
(34:19):
Adams Curtis Sliwa on the Republican side in all likelihood,
and it's not ranked choice, So you could have a
scenario where someone gets forty percent and becomes mayor with
only a minority of the vote because three or four
other candidates could split the remaining sixty.
Speaker 4 (34:35):
We've seen some very troubling images for many people coming
out of Los Angeles as the deportation a plan with
President Trump ramps up. What's your view and how New
York should deal with it? How how would you deal
with that?
Speaker 2 (34:47):
This is great, Paul, thank you for bringing us up.
Whitney Tilson, one of our staff had a close friend's
husband picked up this weekend in New York City. Yeah.
Speaker 11 (34:58):
I strongly support New York status as a sanctuary city.
I do not think we should be cooperating anyway with
the Trump administrations lawless, I would argue campaign of terror
against our immigrant communities. We we, though, as Democrats, need
to be smart and not lose the narrative and not
appear to be or in reality be protecting the very
small number of people who are here illegally, who have
(35:19):
joined gangs and are making our city less safe. So
there needs to be limited cooperation there. But you know,
I was asked on the debate stage, what would you
do you know if Los Angeles, you know, protests came here,
and I'd be like, I'd get out in front. I'd
be out there protesting as well what the Trump administration
is doing, but critically in a peaceful way. And the
flags we should be waving shouldn't be Mexican or Palestinian flags.
(35:40):
We should be waving American flags. We are patriots fighting
for our country, for our democracy against an authoritarian power grab,
which is what I think is going on here.
Speaker 5 (35:49):
What's the biggest issue from your perspective that you want
to get across here when you go out and meet
New Yorkers on the street.
Speaker 11 (35:55):
Well, I was one of the founders of Teach for
America thirty six years ago, my first job out of
college a few blocks from here. I've been on the
board of KIP Charter School. So I've been trying to
elevate the issue of education reform, improving our public schools,
where we spend more and get less than any city
or state in the country. It just hasn't been a
big issue, honestly, and it always comes back to, you know,
(36:16):
housing slash affordability and crime and safety and so. But
I do my best to elevate an issue that I
care about a lot. Is by far the single biggest
part of our city budget. Forty billion dollars of one
hundred and fifteen billion dollar budget goes into the DOE,
and it's not well spent.
Speaker 2 (36:31):
Waitn't until soon. I want to ask a delicate question
here in that there's such a distrust of Governor Cuomo.
There are those that support him. You know, we all
know the debate here in New York, and I think
frankly nationwide people know the debate. If we have Mayor Cuomo,
how does he move on from the baggage that was
(36:52):
earned in Albany? Are you optimistic that he can if
he's mayor, that he can move on from the train right?
It was his term in Albany.
Speaker 11 (37:03):
Yes, And I would not characterize his years in Albany
as a train wreck. He's got a lot, he got
a lot of study.
Speaker 2 (37:10):
On politically I'm talking about and I's on the cover
of the New York Post.
Speaker 11 (37:15):
How I know how it ended. But I have had
some interactions with him over the years, back when he
was governor. He was a strong supporter of charter schools.
And at the end of the day, he's experienced, competent,
and can get things done. And to those who you know,
he's referred to as a vindictive followed by an expletive
(37:36):
by many people. And my argument back to them is
is there's a lot to be said for someone with
a fearsome reputation trying to get things done here in
a very fractious city where you've got to deal not
only with the city council but with Albany and now
with the federal government is going to be a real
challenge as well. We need I think we need someone
like Cuoma, and I'm optimistic he'd be up to the job.
Speaker 4 (37:56):
I guess as a relates to the federal government. Can
he work with the Trump administration, because perhaps that's maybe
one of the things the city needs someone to work
with the Trump administration on behalf of New York's interest.
Speaker 5 (38:08):
Is that's something you think he could do.
Speaker 11 (38:10):
I think Trump is a bully and he respects other
bullies and people who will stand up to him. And
I think Governor of Cuomo fits that bill. They've known
each other for a long period of time, and I
think Cuomo, I would hope, would be smart in standing
up to Trump, but not needlessly provoking him. And when
the alternative for us is a thirty three year old socialist,
(38:33):
I think he would just get destroyed by city politics,
would get destroyed and all, but it would be destroyed
by Trump. And so you know, that's an easy decision
between those two.
Speaker 2 (38:43):
Winnie Tilson, thank you so much for joining us today,
whatever our political persuasions, and thank you for your public
service of running for office.
Speaker 11 (38:51):
I accept your condolencestem you.
Speaker 2 (38:53):
Get out there and running. I hope it is RESTful
as time moves on.
Speaker 1 (38:58):
This is the Bloomberg Surveill Podcast. Listen live each weekday
starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Corplay and Android
Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen
live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,
Just Say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 2 (39:15):
It was an eventful weekend, to say the least. She
was watching softball tournaments and had hours to research the newspapers.
Speaker 8 (39:23):
What do you oh in the rain? It was miserable.
Speaker 9 (39:26):
Okay, so I'm starting with the Wall Street Journal. This
is an interesting take on luxury travel. It has a
new offering.
Speaker 8 (39:32):
So, yes, you have the pools.
Speaker 9 (39:34):
The spas, that drinks of food, right, the excursions. Well,
now there's also.
Speaker 8 (39:38):
A family therapist on hand, so you can have late
to family therapy sessions.
Speaker 2 (39:45):
I avoided this us please Okay.
Speaker 9 (39:49):
This is this company called Bluestone Families. They create these
retreats at resorts, right, and they say the parents actually
started asking for this.
Speaker 8 (39:56):
They want to be more connected to their kids.
Speaker 9 (39:58):
So they say, why not do it on vacation where
there's no distraction of work, there's no distraction of school,
and everyone can kind of sit down and talk about
the issues or whatever's on their mind. But they're saying
that kids of you know, rich families, that they're the
ones who have issues because they have this pressure to succeed.
They're kind of isolated from the parents, they don't really
talk with them.
Speaker 8 (40:20):
So this is a new thing.
Speaker 9 (40:22):
So there's a resort in Massachusett they held a Family
Connection Week.
Speaker 5 (40:26):
Connection week if you're.
Speaker 2 (40:27):
From the west wing of the Keen Mansion and you
can hear the echo and the East wing of the
Keen Mansion now, and that's how you have the family discussion.
Now it's a.
Speaker 9 (40:40):
Certain see so you can say you don't have to
pay the thousand dollars a night that these places are charging.
Speaker 2 (40:46):
Family White Lotus is a show, right, I.
Speaker 5 (40:50):
Think so, Yeah, I missed it.
Speaker 8 (40:52):
Oh yeah, it's okay. Next, okay, this one.
Speaker 9 (40:56):
You kind of mentioned this, you tease it a little
bit about YouTube. This is in the screen Time newsletter.
What they're showing is shift. It's not just for short
term video, but more people are watching the longer ones,
so like twenty to thirty minutes, which is similar to
like a sitcom. So you think about it, they're kind
of encroaching on that side of it. They're getting into
where sitcoms could be because more people are going to
(41:17):
YouTube to watch these creators who are doing like thirty
minute videos.
Speaker 8 (41:21):
Now. So this is from Tubular Lab.
Speaker 9 (41:23):
So they said the average YouTube user spends about more
than fifty percent of their time on the side watching
videos that are longer than twenty minutes.
Speaker 8 (41:30):
So that's shift. And also the shift.
Speaker 9 (41:32):
How they're saying users spend forty two percent of their
time watching it on TV. Some more people watching YouTube
on TV than on their phone or on their laptop.
Speaker 2 (41:40):
But we didn't watch gunsmoke on YouTube.
Speaker 5 (41:43):
Absolutely, that's where the kids are going and uh we've
seen that time.
Speaker 2 (41:46):
The old ulsters are going there too.
Speaker 5 (41:49):
Yeah, yeah, yeah, well there's a few of us, do.
Speaker 2 (41:51):
You think, Paul. The advertisers, you know, absolutely not this month,
but over the next five years will go there.
Speaker 4 (41:59):
Absolutely, And it's become a huge business for for YouTube
and for Google their advertising business on YouTube. The advertisers
since the beginning of time. You have mass an audience,
you sell advertising against it.
Speaker 2 (42:10):
I mean, I'm humbled each and every day. We got
to move on. But folks like humbled by YouTube, Lisa.
Speaker 8 (42:17):
Okay, the last thing. Are you familiar with these La
Boo boo dolls?
Speaker 2 (42:20):
Yes?
Speaker 9 (42:20):
Okay, you're killing Okay, you have you have to Google
or ai this whatever you want to do, because it's
this furry doll with the fang like teeth.
Speaker 8 (42:30):
Right, they're made by Chinese stoemaker PopMart. It was a
huge Yes, there you go. Check out you're watching on YouTube.
Speaker 9 (42:35):
It's a little scary, but there they are and people
love them.
Speaker 2 (42:39):
Sore hoity.
Speaker 9 (42:41):
Yeah, they play huge amounts of money, but now you
have the K pop stars. They're collaborating to do their
own line, so now it's huge. Yet Lisa's black pink, Yes,
she's posted pictures. So now they're becoming more popular in
South Korea and people are like waiting in line for
hours for these things.
Speaker 2 (42:58):
They do mail order and they showed me what the
prices are and we need one or two or a
hat trick on our bag.
Speaker 8 (43:05):
Okay, it's like, it's.
Speaker 2 (43:07):
What was this beanie babies?
Speaker 11 (43:08):
Yes?
Speaker 2 (43:10):
Outrageously priced.
Speaker 9 (43:12):
Yes, and so it's all it's all the rage now,
So parents get ready because it's a miserable.
Speaker 2 (43:20):
Software. Welcome Lisa Mateo with the newspapers.
Speaker 1 (43:23):
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,
and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each
weekday seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com,
the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app.
You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube
(43:43):
and always on the Bloomberg terminal
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg
Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern
on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.
Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch
(00:25):
us live on YouTube bed Mars.
Speaker 2 (00:27):
With Hard Treat Right now and publishing. And with that question,
we welcome all of you worldwide. Ever Morse, welcome to Bloomberg.
Thank you so much for joining.
Speaker 3 (00:35):
Us, Thanks for having me. It's good to hear you again.
Speaker 2 (00:37):
Ed. I just want to focus on it Ran. I
think there's a huge misunderstanding of Persia, the simplistic stuff
in the media as well. If you were to speak
to the president or to every American today, what's the
greatest misconception we get wrong about Iranian oil and gas?
Speaker 3 (01:00):
I don't know what the misconceptions can be. I think
people think that Iran is just overflowing with oil and gas,
and that may be true in theory, but it's not
true in practice. So they've had a stifling of their
oil production, they've had a disaster in their gas production,
despite the fact that they're sitting on probably the second
largest center reserves in the world, and actually what might
(01:22):
do them in has been the Israeli bombing of their
natural gas facilities.
Speaker 2 (01:27):
Paul as the smartest question of the day. Can there
be a regime change? I mean, let's go back to
nineteen seventy nine. Paul's too young to remember this, but
you and I the absolute shock of moving from the
shah over to a theocracy. To be polite about it,
can we have a regime change?
Speaker 3 (01:45):
As Paul ass well, certainly the Israelis are aiming for
a regime change. Whether they get it now or whether
it happens at another time remains to be seen. The
underlying position of the government is very, very weak. They
do not enjoy the legitimate of the public. They do
not enjoy happiness in the public. They have unbelievably high inflation,
(02:08):
reaching forty percent or higher. They have a currency that
remains in a world of depreciating currencies. They have no
access to health and other things that people who are
middle class want, and there are a lot of them.
So we have a government that's a combination, a very
strong combination of elected officials, a theocracy headed by somebody
(02:32):
who certainly is going to be not with us. Very
long given his health situation in his age, and it
has the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which is not exactly
the most popular group in the world in terms of
governments or governance. So yes, I'd say that there's weakness
(02:53):
in the governance structure, but saying it's going to be
overthrown overnight is another matter.
Speaker 4 (02:58):
What is the role of open opec plus in times
of these types of risk geopolitical risks in the Middle East?
Speaker 5 (03:05):
What are they doing well?
Speaker 3 (03:07):
Opech Plus is a bunch of countries and their main
objective has been to put a floor under prices. They
are in a complicated position at the moment. That complication
results from on the geopolitical side, all of the major
countries having new relationships with Iran, that includes Russia, that
(03:30):
includes Saudi Arabia and the UAE, where China has pushed
them to normalize relationships. They are articulating a position of criticism.
I would call it much more than that of Israel,
for it's what they call aggressive acts, but they want
to stay out of it, and they have a more
(03:51):
complicated situation at hand. So we have to remember that
before this started, before that spike we saw last Friday
in oil prices. They are on the one hand, concerned
about weakness in the oil market, and on the other
hand pushing for weakness in the oil market. They continue
to want to push for a weakness for a variety
(04:12):
of complicated reasons for Bloomberg.
Speaker 2 (04:13):
Our conversation of the day Edward Morse was this of
Princeton tangentially with Rice University, many other institutions over the years,
and of course the Council on Foreign Relations with Hartree,
doctor Morris. As simply as I can make it, you
were teaching at Princeton in the middle seventies and the
State Department called, and you had the privilege in nineteen
seventy eight of really driving forward our energy policy. I think,
(04:38):
I guess, I say, what would you say to Secretary Rubio?
But I'm not sure what Secret Rubio's doing other than
watching a parade. What would you say to the president now?
Given our original diplomacy and foreign policy.
Speaker 3 (04:54):
Well, actually some of the things that the government is
doing now are laudatory. And you know, the president had
and he created, he had the view of energy dominance
as the international position of the US, and he doesn't
have to fight hard for energy dominance, even though it's
a difficult word to try to digest, but the US
(05:17):
is the largest oil producing country in the world. The
US oil production total liquids production is greater than the
combined production of Saudi Arabia and Russia.
Speaker 2 (05:27):
So I need to interrupt. This is too important. Are
you critical of the Iranian diplomacy of the United States
is associated with President Obama, Secretary of State Kerrie and
Wendy Sherman as well. Are you're critical of that era
of six, seven, eight, ten years ago.
Speaker 3 (05:45):
I'm critical of one thing that I think looms very large,
and John Carey's name is associated with it. When we
had the push for a clean energy world and the
US was in a leadership position on it, we also
had view official view that we not only want to
get rid of oil and the emissions from burning oil
(06:06):
as a transport fuel, but we have the view that
we should get rid of natural gas as a fossil fuel,
and that really set us back because fossil fuels, we
can't get to net zero without actually using a lot
of natural gas. We have to use it carefully. We
have to make sure that methane emissions are controlled, but
(06:29):
not allowing pipelines to be built for natural gas. Not
pushing for natural gas in the overall displacement of oil
and discouraging oil's use was a mistake in my mind
and set us back on the road to a cleaner world.
And when we come to natural gas. By the way,
(06:50):
the US is the largest producer in the world. We
have the largest exporter in the world, both of oil
and natural gas. And if you look at the next
five years, the US is going to keep that up
and remain the largest exporter with the largest growth fifty
percent of the growth of gas utilization and production, but
(07:10):
we're going to be exporting most of it is coming
from the US. It's a very important tool for economics
and for the energy transition.
Speaker 4 (07:18):
Does the US play any type of role visa vi
Opek now that the US is not only energy independent
but the largest producer.
Speaker 3 (07:27):
Sure, well, we have a complicated role to play. The role,
by definition is that we stopped the Saudis and OPEC
from having an effect of reducing their production. You may
remember several years ago when the Saudis and seven other
countries aid, actually to begin with down to seven other countries,
said we're going to put out voluntary cuts. They've cut
(07:49):
two point two million barrels a day several years ago,
and they don't know how to put that oil back
in the market, So they're now trying to put that
oil back in the market. Two point two million barrels
a day in the market with very limited demand is
hard to do without lowering prices. Sadi Arabian and the
UAE know that Trump wants to lower prices, and they're
they're they're using their own desire to reduce the capacity
(08:12):
of other countries to produce oil, even the United States
by closing more closely their relationship with the US. So
it's complicated. What they want to do should anger the US,
but it's pleasing Trump.
Speaker 5 (08:26):
The straight of hor.
Speaker 4 (08:26):
Moves, I think we've all of our listeners and viewers
have brilliant brilliant.
Speaker 2 (08:32):
Have you swum the straight of Hormos.
Speaker 3 (08:34):
I haven't tried to do that, but I've seen it.
Speaker 5 (08:37):
That's important for global oil, isn't it.
Speaker 4 (08:40):
And what's the risk that that straight of hor moves
may be compromised by right?
Speaker 3 (08:44):
Yeah, well, let me put numbers on it. So twenty
plus million barrels a day flow through the straight of
horm moves every single day. Wow, that is not quite
half of global oil flows, but you know it's more
than a third. And the alternative roots are pipeline from
the east to the west coast of Saudi Arabia and
a pipeline through fujaira part of the UAE, which sticks
(09:06):
up and creates the Straight of horm moves, but you
can avoid it by a pipeline that they have going
through it. The combined two pipelines is eight million a day.
So the best that we can do is limit if
the straight is closed to a disruption of fourteen million
a day, that would bring prices to one hundred and thirty.
Who knows what the number would be, but it would happen,
(09:27):
and it would take months to clear the Strait of
Horn moves. So the issue is not the importance of
the Strait of horm Moose so much as are the
Iranians going to dare to do this? And the Chinese
have absolutely said don't you dare, And the Russians have
said don't you dare. And the Russians also have an
interest in the Strait of Horme moves because part of
the Russian exports of the world are exports to Saudi Arabia,
(09:49):
and here we come to the complicated summer where we
have a record amount of crude burn in Saudi Arabia
and the rest of the Middle East, and they need
dirty oil from somewhere else to enable them to produce
and export the oil. We estimate that the increase in
oil demand this summer is about a million barrels a
(10:09):
day because it's the hotest summer on record, and that's
another bind. But I think there's a lot of pressure
to Hey to say that the Iranian's hands off the
straight open wars, don't you, dare?
Speaker 2 (10:21):
Edward Morris one final question, with great honor to your
decades at the Wilson Institute at Princeton. In all Robert D.
Kaplan talks about the people of Persia. You've talked about
them as being the legitimate middle class and sophistication of
the Middle East. Do the people of Persia have a
(10:42):
voice in this, as Paul mentioned earlier, where they find
something after the Kamandie theocracy.
Speaker 3 (10:49):
They do, and they don't. They're afraid to have generalized protests,
even if it's sort we had in the United States
over the weekend. We have clear evidence that the bombing
in the north has led to a massive exodus of people.
So there are people who are unhappy. Do they want
to be ruled by Netanyahu?
Speaker 2 (11:07):
No? So what's a worse prescription for the United States
to assist the people of Persia?
Speaker 3 (11:13):
I think the US should be doing what it's doing,
namely staying out of it, telling them both that they
want to negotiate an agreement on Iran's nuclear future. And
I think there is something to that, because Iran is
in a desperate getting to be in a desperate position.
They have logically failed. They have visibly failed to protect
(11:36):
the people of Iran. They visibly failed to protect themselves
as a government, given the failure of the proxies and
the way the Israelis eliminated them. So I think it's
inevitable that there's going to be an agreement in the US.
I think needs to have its hands in that agreement
to make it work.
Speaker 2 (11:54):
Doctor marsh thank you so much for joining Bloomberg this morning.
Edward Marris of Hartree, of course, definitive on the Mediterranean
and our hydrocarbons in America.
Speaker 1 (12:09):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast Catch Us live
weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on Apple,
Karplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app, or
watch US live on YouTube.
Speaker 2 (12:22):
Henria Trace joins US right now at Veta Partners. Henriette.
I really want to stay in the Eastern Mediterranean because
that's where the news is. But I guess I've got
to ask, how will President Trump be greeted by the
G six.
Speaker 6 (12:38):
That's a very valid question.
Speaker 7 (12:41):
I have to assume that there's going to be a
lot of skepticism around him, thinking that Vladimir Putin is
going to be the chief arbiter of negotiations and peace
between Iran and Israel.
Speaker 6 (12:51):
That has to be first and foremost one of their questions.
Speaker 7 (12:54):
As we are on the US side sending tankers and
interceptors over across the Atlantic right now to keep the peace,
should we ever get to that often and fall again?
Speaker 2 (13:04):
The USS nimics moving from Asia West to the Middle.
Speaker 5 (13:09):
East, absolutely, Henriette.
Speaker 4 (13:11):
What's the feeling in Washington, DC these days about the
role that the US either is playing or may not
be playing fully enough in the Middle East?
Speaker 5 (13:20):
What's the what are the folks in DC? Thinking?
Speaker 6 (13:23):
Well?
Speaker 7 (13:23):
As usual the Democratic Party is sort of spinning its
wheels on this, but the Republican Party is really trying
to come up with a cohesive position around whatever it
is that the president's platform is. We see in Washington
that the Republican Party very much, especially when it comes
to foreign policy, takes its direction from the President. So
first and foremost, i'd say that the sanctions bill that
we had pending towards Russia is off the table.
Speaker 6 (13:45):
For right now.
Speaker 7 (13:46):
Not only can you not do that when gas prices spike,
which is a risk that we have at this juncture,
but I think any pressure on the administration from a
let me force your hand on political and foreign.
Speaker 6 (13:57):
Policy is not what they're going to do.
Speaker 7 (13:58):
So that sanctions bill that's fun answered by about eighty
two members of the Senate and had clearance in the
House is.
Speaker 6 (14:04):
Not going to move.
Speaker 7 (14:05):
I think is the first casualty as they wait to
see how things play out over the next couple of
days with Israel, whether it escalates and things get.
Speaker 6 (14:13):
More tense or not. But they're probably going to just
pivot to the tax bill at this point.
Speaker 4 (14:16):
That's kind of where I want to go, Henriette. I mean,
I guess we have the G seven, we have the
Mid East. There's a lot of issues out there for
folks to focus on and its administration to focus on.
But the folks in Congress, they got to get a
tax bill moved.
Speaker 5 (14:29):
Where are we on that. There's a lot of legislation there.
Speaker 7 (14:33):
Yeah, So tonight at around six o'clock, the Senate Finance Committee.
Speaker 6 (14:36):
Is going to release a portion of their bill. It's
not going to be comprehensive. They're going to keep the
stickiest stuff for later.
Speaker 7 (14:41):
That includes the solid PAP as I know you guys
like to talk about. The tax bill is going to
start to become public and it's going to get slammed.
And the thing that's really tough about this for members
is that they only have a week three day week
reset three day week work schedule today this Massa, So
they're only going to be here tonight tomorrow on Wednesday,
(15:03):
and then they're out of town.
Speaker 6 (15:04):
So releasing legislation and that kind of.
Speaker 7 (15:05):
An environment is tricky because then you put sunlight on
it and you leave, and that allows whoever is your
distractor to come in and spend the next five straight
days smashing the legislation, which is going to be what
happens here.
Speaker 2 (15:17):
We continue with Henrietta Treys of Aida Partners. Good morning
on your commute across the nation. Good morning, and Henrietta
Treys Louisiana as well, Serious XEM Channel one twenty one.
Good morning, particularly across Canada in ben or Banff. Okay,
we're gonna go Banf. We'll see David Girl be with
(15:38):
us later. And a gun on YouTube. We're just humbled
by the YouTube build out. I just really can't say
enough about that. Subscribe to Bloomberg Podcast, Henrietta, I want
to pause. And this came into my puny head this
weekend watching golf and watching Devers in a Red Sox
uniform and all that. Hendrietta, I think we have three wars.
(16:01):
We have a real war in Ukraine. We have a
real war spanning Israel and Persia, and I guess Gaza
is a sort of kind of like war as well.
Have we ever done this in America? Had a three
front war?
Speaker 7 (16:17):
You know, I would say that we haven't had a
three front war with a president who has.
Speaker 6 (16:22):
Said I alone can fix it. I think that's maybe
the distinguishing feature here.
Speaker 7 (16:26):
I was with former Speaker Kevin McCarthy recently, and he
said the reason that we voted for Trump is because
nobody would dare mess with anybody and nobody would step
out a line as long as President Trump is in office.
Speaker 6 (16:36):
And obviously that's not the piece.
Speaker 7 (16:38):
There's no peace in Ukraine, there's no piece in and
it's expanding in Israel to Ran and I think that's
probably the core of the problem here.
Speaker 2 (16:45):
How is the Pentagon in a harms way? How are
they dealing with a two and a half front war.
Speaker 7 (16:54):
Right and also preparing for whatever it is that's going
on with China. I think as we watch all this
stuff that keeps the NSA up at night, is really
what is China seeing from all this and what.
Speaker 2 (17:04):
It Wait wait, I got to interrupt. How can the
NSA be up at night when Marco Rubio's yawning on
the parade stand he's running NSC Maybe.
Speaker 6 (17:15):
Because he's up at night.
Speaker 7 (17:16):
I don't know, but you know, certainly the expansion here
and the tariffs that are on across.
Speaker 6 (17:24):
The globe and China, as you know, the core focus.
Speaker 7 (17:27):
I'll go back to that sanctions, but we were going
to do a secondary sanctions package potentially on China and Iran.
Speaker 6 (17:34):
To help contain Russia.
Speaker 7 (17:36):
And that's plainly not in the cards if gas prices
are rising. So I think those are other pieces that
you know, at least former NSA officials have been very
concerned about. I assume Rubio is as well.
Speaker 4 (17:48):
The good folks down in Washington, DC, collectively, Henriette, how
do they feel about I mean, it seems like inflation's
just right over the horizon, whether it's rising oil prices
coming out of the mid East, the tariffs, sang, all
these types of things. Boy, it really runs the risk
for higher inflation. I wonder if our good friends in
Washington are aware of that.
Speaker 6 (18:08):
Yeah, I think that they are.
Speaker 7 (18:10):
They try not to talk about it downplay. There's a
really good example coming from Ron Johnson, who has a
lot of negative things to say about the tax bill,
and he's been told by the President, Look, you can
have negative opinions about the tax bill, but don't bring
them up in public.
Speaker 6 (18:24):
And I think that's a lot of what you're seeing
from members.
Speaker 7 (18:26):
They end up shifting and deflecting onto other topics. So
whenever you have a conversation about inflation, they quickly pivot to, oh,
well this will wrap up, or oh, well, this is
not going to be extended a lot of you know,
we'll be getting deals soon.
Speaker 6 (18:38):
On the tirefront.
Speaker 7 (18:39):
And the reality on the tariffront I can't stress enough
is that tariffs are going to rise from here for
many countries, most nations, we're going to get a permanent
flat rate that could be between ten and twenty five percent,
and then other tier rates are going to rise on Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia,
sector specific.
Speaker 6 (18:55):
There's a lot more to come.
Speaker 2 (18:56):
We got to help you, Andre Atta it with your research.
You're going around the room quickly. We go to surveillance.
Costco correspond to Lisa Matail. Lisa Matail, is there inflation
at Costco?
Speaker 8 (19:06):
Yes, there is, believe me.
Speaker 2 (19:08):
What's an item that's killing you?
Speaker 9 (19:10):
The item that's killing me? It's probably no. The eggs
have gotten better. Actually I have to do say that
produce but yeah, no the meats.
Speaker 2 (19:17):
The meats, Yeah, meats. I don't even need anymore too. So,
Michael Barr, where's the inflation in the barhouse? Besides you
losing money into San Francisco forty nine ers. I'm just
going to come out and say it.
Speaker 4 (19:28):
Liquor, Yeah, sure, yeah, it really is is the beverage
of your choice?
Speaker 2 (19:32):
The beverage of my choice? Man? It is going on? Oh,
where's the inflation?
Speaker 4 (19:35):
I just paid over three dollars a gallon yesterday, which
is first time.
Speaker 2 (19:39):
Let's go there, Hendriana Treys. I mean, Paul goes to
the heart of the matter that matters. If Capitol Hill doesn't.
Speaker 6 (19:45):
It, it absolutely does for me. You know, I'm a
good millennial.
Speaker 7 (19:49):
I don't even shop at Starbucks, and now I'm paying
twenty dollars for a bag of coffee at grinds.
Speaker 6 (19:52):
My gears that.
Speaker 2 (19:56):
I have a big bottle of olive oil thirty one dollars.
It used to be twenty three bucks. It's not a
fancy one. It's not like some It's not like what
Lisa has. You know where you.
Speaker 5 (20:07):
Can't put master Italian.
Speaker 2 (20:08):
Hendrita Trace, brilliant. Thank you for the brief this morning, Henrietta, quickly,
I hope she's not gone?
Speaker 5 (20:14):
Is it? Is it?
Speaker 2 (20:15):
Ban or Ben?
Speaker 5 (20:17):
Oh?
Speaker 6 (20:18):
My pay grade?
Speaker 2 (20:19):
Okay, thank you, Hadria Trace, Thank you so much, Greatly
appreciated Invader partners.
Speaker 1 (20:24):
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Corplay and Android
Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen
live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station.
Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 2 (20:41):
Paul Bucks when he says, get the guy from Duka
and the guy with the bass violin in the background,
a cella whatever it is. But what's really important here
is Cam Harvey, professor at Duke's Business School, is incredibly
informed about the stuff tangential to our monetary policy.
Speaker 4 (20:59):
Paul cam Harvey joins this year Professor of Finance at
the Fucal School of Business at Duke University. Hey, Cam,
we're going to hear from the FED on Wednesday. I
know you've been critical of this FED for looking I
guess maybe a little bit too much in the rear
view mirror.
Speaker 5 (21:12):
What do you expect to hear from the FED this week?
Speaker 10 (21:16):
So almost nothing, and it's going to be very, very frustrating.
And there's a lot of pressure on the FED from
the political side. So the President has called for like
one hundred basis point cut. The Vice President has accused
(21:37):
the Chair of the FED of conducting monetary malpractice. So
this is kind of serious sort of schism between the
executive branch and the supposedly independent FED. So the way
that I look at it, and this is nothing new,
(22:00):
I'm actually in favor of aggressive cuts, and indeed I've
been in favor of cuts for over a year. So
I do believe the rate is too high and we
need to fix that. And the reason I think is
fairly evident. So we are in a structural deficit situation
(22:23):
where we've got a one point nine trillion dollar deficit
at a time when we've got decent economic growth, record
low unemployment, inflation with a two handle. That doesn't make
any sense. That might make sense to have a one
point nine trillion dollar deficit if we're in a crisis
or a war, but we're not. So something has to happen.
(22:47):
And we've discovered painfully that cutting the expenditures like dojing
is not going to get us there. It's not going
to get us to like a balanced budget. So something
needs to be done. And what is the easiest thing
in terms of lack of pain, is increase growth. When
(23:11):
you grow faster, the revenues come in. You don't need
to increase that tax rate when you grow faster, revenues
come in, so we need a boost in terms of growth,
and one way to facilitate that is to reduce the
Fed Fund's rate. That that's a good thing for growth.
Speaker 4 (23:32):
So we had some inflation data over the last week
at PPI. CPI doesn't seem to be creeping into the
economy just yet. I know a lot of folks were
concerned about tariffs and their inflationary pressures. How do you
think about tariffs and the impact on maybe economic growth,
maybe inflation.
Speaker 10 (23:51):
So tariffs are a tax, so when we increase taxes,
that's bad for growth. But we also need to realize
that imports are a fairly small part of our economy.
So only fourteen percent of GDP is linked to imports,
(24:12):
so we can absorb and increase in tariffs without too
much damage. Nevertheless, it's damage. So in the ideal scenario,
and I said this months ago, the ideal scenario is
that this leads to a situation where there is a
(24:33):
level playing field and terriffs are actually reduced. And importantly,
it's not just terriffs, it's the non tariff barriers. So
the headline numbers kind of mask what is going on.
And if we've got a situation like that that could
also boost economic growth. I know it's chaotic right now,
and I'm not a tariff person, but we need growth.
Speaker 2 (24:57):
I want to go back to your seminal work, Kim Harvey,
Consumption recovering expectations of consumption growth? Can you aggregate America? Now?
Are we so paralyzed in our bellism that there's two
Americas out there?
Speaker 10 (25:13):
So it's a great point. And most of our models
and economics have what's called a representative consumer, which is
code for everybody's the same, and that's just not the
case anymore. So we're very heterogeneous. And I've argued that
(25:36):
that part of kind of the decreasing volatility.
Speaker 2 (25:40):
Of the business cycles.
Speaker 10 (25:41):
So our business cycles are way milder than in the past,
even considering the global financial crisis and COVID, So they're
less frequent and they're milder.
Speaker 1 (25:53):
And this is.
Speaker 10 (25:54):
Because there are a couple of classes of consumers at least,
and there's one class that is very well off and
they just don't respond. So inflation goes up, there's nobod
deal to them. They just buy.
Speaker 2 (26:09):
And so I got time for one more question. We
got to move on there with breaking news, including a
presidential tweet. Kim Harvey, I can think the only equivalent
of Laurence Summers. A few years ago. You had a
doctoral dissertation with not one, not two, but three Nobel
Prize winners. You had to sit in a room with Fama, Merton, Miller,
(26:32):
and Hanson. Is that true? Yes? How did you survive that?
Speaker 10 (26:38):
So they did not have the Nobels when they were
on my committee? There were many of my professors did
not either, but yet it was it was a challenge. Indeed,
my strategy and one of my seminars was just to
stand back and let them go at it.
Speaker 2 (26:59):
You're talking about would you have been benefited by the
AI your students are using a duke right now?
Speaker 10 (27:06):
Oh, everybody will benefit from that. Yeah, definitely. So it's
a great tool for kind of enhancing your research. It's
like a research assistant. It's remarkable.
Speaker 2 (27:17):
You never have a time. Kim Harvey, thank you so
much out of Canada with his graduate work at Chicago
and folks, I'll tell you the privilege you're talking to you,
Gene Fom about Chicago economics over the years at Lars
Hansen to an extent is a noted Kim Harvey there
of Paul Sweeney's Duke University.
Speaker 1 (27:46):
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto
with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also watch us
live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg and.
Speaker 2 (28:00):
All for all of you nationwide. We are transfixed in
New York City by a mayoral race. There is an
election in November, which months ago was like, no big
deal because there's twelve Republicans in New York City. But
all of a sudden, it's like, Okay, this could be
a really interesting election because this candidate is an independent.
This one's an independent. There'll be four even five people
(28:22):
on the ballot. Governor Cromo was in the other day.
As a disclaimer, I want to make clear that he's
received the endorsement of mister Bloomberg. Michael Bloomberg is the
owner of various sundry Bloomberg events, including Bloomberg LP in,
Bloomberg Television, in radio. Whitney Tilson joins us right now
after surviving the race. Is mister Krome said. Whitney Tilson
(28:46):
is a financial guy in a hedge fund community and such,
and has gone through the public process of being a candidate.
This word cross endors in rank voting. Can you cross
endorse Governor Cuomo this morning?
Speaker 11 (29:03):
Yes, And it's not a cross endorsement because I haven't
asked for his endorsement in return. But at the on
the mayoral stage at the last debate on Thursday night,
when asked, I was the only candidate who was willing
to say who I would vote.
Speaker 2 (29:16):
No, just that why are you the only candidate that's
lining up buying Cuomo? Jessica did in the Queens. I
believe it was as.
Speaker 11 (29:25):
Well because the rest of the candidates are more progressive
lefty types, and Cuomo and I are the only two
people in the moderate lane. So I'm happy to throw
my support behind him and just say, don't rank zoo
on Mom Dannie, who's the far lefty thirty three year
old inexperienced Democratic socialists.
Speaker 4 (29:47):
Whitney, crime, homelessness. If you ask I think the average
New Yorker those two topics would be at or near
the top of their list of concerns.
Speaker 11 (29:56):
Yes, second only to housing and affordability. Yep, do you
deal with that issue?
Speaker 5 (30:02):
Brobably tied together.
Speaker 11 (30:03):
Well, it's a tough one. There's no quick solution. But
a bunch of legislation passed five years ago that effectively
decriminalized all low level crime. Not surprisingly, shocker, you had
a huge increase and New Yorker has got upset and
we're in the process slowly, too slowly, rolling some of
that back. But it demoralized police and we've were down
(30:24):
to a thirty four year low in the number of
police officers. The good news, however, is that on his
fourth attempt is fourth police commissioner in three years. Eric Adams,
our current mayor, was sort of forced to hire a
competent person, Jessica Tish, who has came in in November.
She's done a great job, got more police out in
the streets started and forcing quality of life stuff. The
(30:44):
murder rate is down twenty eight percent year to date,
shootings are down twenty one percent. Almost every type of
crime is down smaller amounts, but so I'm hopeful that
we're going in the right direction for the first time
in five years.
Speaker 4 (30:57):
Housing affordability top of the list. Been in this city
for a long time. It's always been an issue.
Speaker 5 (31:03):
Everybody wants to come to New York. And we know why.
Speaker 4 (31:06):
I don't care what's going on in the world or
what's going on with the city. People keep flooding into
the city. You see every single day. How do we
house these folks?
Speaker 11 (31:14):
Yeah, I should say one more just got added to
that list yesterday. My youngest daughter graduated from college in
Minnesota on Saturday, and she has already accepted a job
back in New York. My third daughter, all three of
them are now back in New York working building their
lives here. It's the greatest city in the world, but
housing is key. My youngest daughter is going to be
living at home because she can't afford on a teacher's
(31:35):
salary to live in New York. So what do you
have to do to do about it? For words, if
I were to summarize unleash the private sector, all the
candidates have their various proposals because voters are screaming about
this issue. I'm the only one who said there's not
primarily a governmental solution. Trust me, the private sector wants
(31:55):
to invest in the richest city in the world with
a sixty year low vacancy rate. But we've just put
up so much the zoning ranks environmental ranks, the city
bureaucracy where they have to hire expediters to try and
navigate the city bureaucracy. We've got to clear that out
and shorten what's a four year process on average down
to a two year process, which is what it was
(32:15):
under Mike Bloomberg. And the difference in two years and
four years to project start to finish in a higher
interest rate environment like today, is a viable project or
a non viable project?
Speaker 2 (32:27):
I look at it. I brought this up with Governor Cuomo.
The election to ed Cotch One where Mario Cuomo, Governor
Cuomo's father took Staten Island, and I believe Brooklyn I
can't remember, but Doo took Bronx, and you know Bella
Abzug took Manhattan, but ed catch one. With this Democratic primary,
(32:48):
how does Whitney Tilson frame the first Tuesday of November
all of a sudden, It's complex.
Speaker 11 (32:55):
Yes, it's particularly complex is we have the primary coming
up in eight days and ranked choice, so voters can
rank up to five candidates. The way the polling looks
right now is whatever round of ranked choice, as as
other candidates are eliminated, it's going to come down to
Andrew Cuomo, the former governor, and Zoron Mamdannie, the thirty
three year old sort of phenom who's run a great
(33:17):
campaign but is very dangerously in experience, has radical views.
I'll just point your listeners read the New York Times
editorial today. New York Times, the liberal lefty paper of record,
just destroyed Zoron Mamdanni and their editorial today. He said
he's completely unqualified, his ideas are extremists, would be the
ruin of this city is effectively what they just said.
(33:38):
So they said, don't rank mom Donnie, and then they said,
whatever your feelings are about Cuomo, rank him somewhere. They
had a mixed view of Cuomo. And then they said,
Whitney Tilson is the heir to Mike Bloomberg, and if
you're a moderate, vote for him. So that was I
was thrilled by that.
Speaker 2 (33:54):
What are we going to see in November if Whitney
Tilson doesn't get traction.
Speaker 11 (33:58):
Well I will. I am only running in the Democratic primary,
and realistically, with eight days left, there's a very narrow
path for me to win the primary. If I don't
win the primary, I will not be there in November November.
What's interesting is is both Mom, Donnie and Cuomo, regardless
of which one wins and loses, is likely to be
in November. And then you have the current mayor, Eric
(34:19):
Adams Curtis Sliwa on the Republican side in all likelihood,
and it's not ranked choice, So you could have a
scenario where someone gets forty percent and becomes mayor with
only a minority of the vote because three or four
other candidates could split the remaining sixty.
Speaker 4 (34:35):
We've seen some very troubling images for many people coming
out of Los Angeles as the deportation a plan with
President Trump ramps up. What's your view and how New
York should deal with it? How how would you deal
with that?
Speaker 2 (34:47):
This is great, Paul, thank you for bringing us up.
Whitney Tilson, one of our staff had a close friend's
husband picked up this weekend in New York City. Yeah.
Speaker 11 (34:58):
I strongly support New York status as a sanctuary city.
I do not think we should be cooperating anyway with
the Trump administrations lawless, I would argue campaign of terror
against our immigrant communities. We we, though, as Democrats, need
to be smart and not lose the narrative and not
appear to be or in reality be protecting the very
small number of people who are here illegally, who have
(35:19):
joined gangs and are making our city less safe. So
there needs to be limited cooperation there. But you know,
I was asked on the debate stage, what would you
do you know if Los Angeles, you know, protests came here,
and I'd be like, I'd get out in front. I'd
be out there protesting as well what the Trump administration
is doing, but critically in a peaceful way. And the
flags we should be waving shouldn't be Mexican or Palestinian flags.
(35:40):
We should be waving American flags. We are patriots fighting
for our country, for our democracy against an authoritarian power grab,
which is what I think is going on here.
Speaker 5 (35:49):
What's the biggest issue from your perspective that you want
to get across here when you go out and meet
New Yorkers on the street.
Speaker 11 (35:55):
Well, I was one of the founders of Teach for
America thirty six years ago, my first job out of
college a few blocks from here. I've been on the
board of KIP Charter School. So I've been trying to
elevate the issue of education reform, improving our public schools,
where we spend more and get less than any city
or state in the country. It just hasn't been a
big issue, honestly, and it always comes back to, you know,
(36:16):
housing slash affordability and crime and safety and so. But
I do my best to elevate an issue that I
care about a lot. Is by far the single biggest
part of our city budget. Forty billion dollars of one
hundred and fifteen billion dollar budget goes into the DOE,
and it's not well spent.
Speaker 2 (36:31):
Waitn't until soon. I want to ask a delicate question
here in that there's such a distrust of Governor Cuomo.
There are those that support him. You know, we all
know the debate here in New York, and I think
frankly nationwide people know the debate. If we have Mayor Cuomo,
how does he move on from the baggage that was
(36:52):
earned in Albany? Are you optimistic that he can if
he's mayor, that he can move on from the train right?
It was his term in Albany.
Speaker 11 (37:03):
Yes, And I would not characterize his years in Albany
as a train wreck. He's got a lot, he got
a lot of study.
Speaker 2 (37:10):
On politically I'm talking about and I's on the cover
of the New York Post.
Speaker 11 (37:15):
How I know how it ended. But I have had
some interactions with him over the years, back when he
was governor. He was a strong supporter of charter schools.
And at the end of the day, he's experienced, competent,
and can get things done. And to those who you know,
he's referred to as a vindictive followed by an expletive
(37:36):
by many people. And my argument back to them is
is there's a lot to be said for someone with
a fearsome reputation trying to get things done here in
a very fractious city where you've got to deal not
only with the city council but with Albany and now
with the federal government is going to be a real
challenge as well. We need I think we need someone
like Cuoma, and I'm optimistic he'd be up to the job.
Speaker 4 (37:56):
I guess as a relates to the federal government. Can
he work with the Trump administration, because perhaps that's maybe
one of the things the city needs someone to work
with the Trump administration on behalf of New York's interest.
Speaker 5 (38:08):
Is that's something you think he could do.
Speaker 11 (38:10):
I think Trump is a bully and he respects other
bullies and people who will stand up to him. And
I think Governor of Cuomo fits that bill. They've known
each other for a long period of time, and I
think Cuomo, I would hope, would be smart in standing
up to Trump, but not needlessly provoking him. And when
the alternative for us is a thirty three year old socialist,
(38:33):
I think he would just get destroyed by city politics,
would get destroyed and all, but it would be destroyed
by Trump. And so you know, that's an easy decision
between those two.
Speaker 2 (38:43):
Winnie Tilson, thank you so much for joining us today,
whatever our political persuasions, and thank you for your public
service of running for office.
Speaker 11 (38:51):
I accept your condolencestem you.
Speaker 2 (38:53):
Get out there and running. I hope it is RESTful
as time moves on.
Speaker 1 (38:58):
This is the Bloomberg Surveill Podcast. Listen live each weekday
starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Corplay and Android
Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen
live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,
Just Say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 2 (39:15):
It was an eventful weekend, to say the least. She
was watching softball tournaments and had hours to research the newspapers.
Speaker 8 (39:23):
What do you oh in the rain? It was miserable.
Speaker 9 (39:26):
Okay, so I'm starting with the Wall Street Journal. This
is an interesting take on luxury travel. It has a
new offering.
Speaker 8 (39:32):
So, yes, you have the pools.
Speaker 9 (39:34):
The spas, that drinks of food, right, the excursions. Well,
now there's also.
Speaker 8 (39:38):
A family therapist on hand, so you can have late
to family therapy sessions.
Speaker 2 (39:45):
I avoided this us please Okay.
Speaker 9 (39:49):
This is this company called Bluestone Families. They create these
retreats at resorts, right, and they say the parents actually
started asking for this.
Speaker 8 (39:56):
They want to be more connected to their kids.
Speaker 9 (39:58):
So they say, why not do it on vacation where
there's no distraction of work, there's no distraction of school,
and everyone can kind of sit down and talk about
the issues or whatever's on their mind. But they're saying
that kids of you know, rich families, that they're the
ones who have issues because they have this pressure to succeed.
They're kind of isolated from the parents, they don't really
talk with them.
Speaker 8 (40:20):
So this is a new thing.
Speaker 9 (40:22):
So there's a resort in Massachusett they held a Family
Connection Week.
Speaker 5 (40:26):
Connection week if you're.
Speaker 2 (40:27):
From the west wing of the Keen Mansion and you
can hear the echo and the East wing of the
Keen Mansion now, and that's how you have the family discussion.
Now it's a.
Speaker 9 (40:40):
Certain see so you can say you don't have to
pay the thousand dollars a night that these places are charging.
Speaker 2 (40:46):
Family White Lotus is a show, right, I.
Speaker 5 (40:50):
Think so, Yeah, I missed it.
Speaker 8 (40:52):
Oh yeah, it's okay. Next, okay, this one.
Speaker 9 (40:56):
You kind of mentioned this, you tease it a little
bit about YouTube. This is in the screen Time newsletter.
What they're showing is shift. It's not just for short
term video, but more people are watching the longer ones,
so like twenty to thirty minutes, which is similar to
like a sitcom. So you think about it, they're kind
of encroaching on that side of it. They're getting into
where sitcoms could be because more people are going to
(41:17):
YouTube to watch these creators who are doing like thirty
minute videos.
Speaker 8 (41:21):
Now. So this is from Tubular Lab.
Speaker 9 (41:23):
So they said the average YouTube user spends about more
than fifty percent of their time on the side watching
videos that are longer than twenty minutes.
Speaker 8 (41:30):
So that's shift. And also the shift.
Speaker 9 (41:32):
How they're saying users spend forty two percent of their
time watching it on TV. Some more people watching YouTube
on TV than on their phone or on their laptop.
Speaker 2 (41:40):
But we didn't watch gunsmoke on YouTube.
Speaker 5 (41:43):
Absolutely, that's where the kids are going and uh we've
seen that time.
Speaker 2 (41:46):
The old ulsters are going there too.
Speaker 5 (41:49):
Yeah, yeah, yeah, well there's a few of us, do.
Speaker 2 (41:51):
You think, Paul. The advertisers, you know, absolutely not this month,
but over the next five years will go there.
Speaker 4 (41:59):
Absolutely, And it's become a huge business for for YouTube
and for Google their advertising business on YouTube. The advertisers
since the beginning of time. You have mass an audience,
you sell advertising against it.
Speaker 2 (42:10):
I mean, I'm humbled each and every day. We got
to move on. But folks like humbled by YouTube, Lisa.
Speaker 8 (42:17):
Okay, the last thing. Are you familiar with these La
Boo boo dolls?
Speaker 2 (42:20):
Yes?
Speaker 9 (42:20):
Okay, you're killing Okay, you have you have to Google
or ai this whatever you want to do, because it's
this furry doll with the fang like teeth.
Speaker 8 (42:30):
Right, they're made by Chinese stoemaker PopMart. It was a
huge Yes, there you go. Check out you're watching on YouTube.
Speaker 9 (42:35):
It's a little scary, but there they are and people
love them.
Speaker 2 (42:39):
Sore hoity.
Speaker 9 (42:41):
Yeah, they play huge amounts of money, but now you
have the K pop stars. They're collaborating to do their
own line, so now it's huge. Yet Lisa's black pink, Yes,
she's posted pictures. So now they're becoming more popular in
South Korea and people are like waiting in line for
hours for these things.
Speaker 2 (42:58):
They do mail order and they showed me what the
prices are and we need one or two or a
hat trick on our bag.
Speaker 8 (43:05):
Okay, it's like, it's.
Speaker 2 (43:07):
What was this beanie babies?
Speaker 11 (43:08):
Yes?
Speaker 2 (43:10):
Outrageously priced.
Speaker 9 (43:12):
Yes, and so it's all it's all the rage now,
So parents get ready because it's a miserable.
Speaker 2 (43:20):
Software. Welcome Lisa Mateo with the newspapers.
Speaker 1 (43:23):
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,
and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each
weekday seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com,
the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app.
You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube
(43:43):
and always on the Bloomberg terminal
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