Single Best Idea: Henrietta Treyz & Aakash Doshi

Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio.

In this episode, we feature conversations with Henrietta Treyz & Aakash Doshi.

Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News single best idea on
the most interesting day of shutdown day. Thank you Nathan
Hagar and all in Washington. Thank you Nathan Dean of
Bloomberg Intelligence. For perspective. Joe Matthew in the nine o'clock hour,

(00:25):
just it's amazing the sources he has to pull into
his balance of power. David Gurra wonderful and the eight
o'clock hour giving us perspective looked a big take for
their treatment of this shutdown. In the seven o'clock hour,
Henrietta Treys was with us as well, wired into Capitol

(00:46):
here from Veda Partners. Henrietta Trace, I think that the
shutdown was inevitable. It didn't happen in March, it happened
this time around, and if it didn't happen now, it
was going to happen in November. We are at a
very real impact in the United States.

Speaker 2 (01:01):
It is as tense as I've ever seen it.

Speaker 1 (01:03):
You're seeing a lot of good members leave and retire
and resign because of the achromony. So this shutdown maybe
could let the mayor out of the room. If there's
going to be a positive benefit, maybe they give you
that Henryta trees there and I have no idea. Folks,
in the compendium of voices that we spoke to or
we researched, I can't give you a timeline. It could

(01:24):
be tomorrow, it could be two months from now. The
single statistic I saw that stop me in my tracks,
thank you the Washington Post is social Security will not
be shut down, but eighty eight percent of Social Security
employees will work without a paycheck. That is this famous
TV show said, this does not compute. I don't understand

(01:47):
how that happens. We spoke to Akash Doshia State Street
about gold, really really informed about the supply dynamics, the
demand dynamics, the general equal librium, the oddities of global gold.
Here from State Street, A Kastoci.

Speaker 2 (02:05):
I think the price level can sustain, and that we're
knocking on four thousand an ounce and we're going to
clear that level in the fourth quarter. I just don't
think the volatility or the violence of this move higher
is likely sustainable. So I do think there's a bit
of fomo that we often see in tech stocks emanating
in gold right now, and I think eventually will calm.

(02:26):
Gold performs differently than other commodities. Typically when you have
a supply shock in oil or corn, supply is going
down and that's why prices are going up. In gold,
the price discovery function is usually a shift out of
the aggregate demand curve, so supply can be at a
record level just as demand is growing at a faster pace. However,

(02:46):
there are two components of gold supply. There's mind production,
but there's also gold recycling or gold scrap. So you've
seen a lot of metals. So within that context, actually
gold scrap has been lagging on supply growth this year,
despite record high prices across currencies. So what I would
say in that regard is that a lot of consumers globally,

(03:07):
including in India and China, are just holding onto gold
and also hoarding gold, and that's buttressing this rally even
as mind production is.

Speaker 1 (03:14):
Growing at costoshit was State Street really really interesting conversation.
Is he mentioned there the acceleration of gold. How do
I translate that? Technically? I go back to the chart
of Dennis Gartman gold and yen, and I'll take it
on the y access to a logarithm, which shows a
percentage change. It's a very different set of information than

(03:36):
a normal Moonshot chart, and the answer is even going
to logs. Gold has accelerated our podcasts. We're out there
on Spotify, on Apple, and of course on YouTube podcasts.
It's single best idea.