Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Mike Wilson & Brian Belski

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Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio.

In this episode, we feature conversations with Mike Wilson & Brian Belski.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

Speaker 2 (00:13):
Single best idea and my single best idea was just
thank you to all that I saw on the travels
to Rome who take part in the podcasts, take part
in YouTube, and really all the new distribution. I completely
underestimate the power of this new digital distribution, and I'll
tell you it was something to hear about it in

(00:35):
Rome and travels thereabouts. One of the great things is
to come back to a good opinions on the equity markets.
Gina Martin Adams with Paul Sweeney yesterday and today. We'll
get to Brian Belski here in a moment, but Mike
Wilson with us. One of the great features of Wilson,
like Gina Martin Adams, is you got to be in
the market. It's nothing, go to cash, do this, do this,

(00:57):
do this. But here is an interesting idea, Mike Wilson,
I'm trying to guess out seven years or ten years
to a set of outcomes a fan distribution.

Speaker 1 (01:09):
I think it depends on how you utilize them. I mean,
we we do a bull bear base case. We've done
that for you know, the duration of as long as
we've had this job and I think every investor does that.
It's called a risk reward. It's what's my upside, what's
my downside, and then you basically skew your you know,
your positioning based on whether you think the downside or
upside case is more likely, whether we're talking about a

(01:30):
single stock or the S and P five hundred. So
it's no different. I don't think that's a unique approach.
I think that's the way most investors think about how
to put money to work, and so I think I
think it works. But I mean doesn't mean you're going
to be right. That's the That's the thing, like like
do you do you bet on the bull case or
you've been on the bear case at any given time,
depends on how things go out. It is a play

(01:52):
out the way you think it plays out.

Speaker 2 (01:53):
And part of that on the bull case the bearcase
is the cash case. That is a modern market timing
thing that we see here Mike Wilson and trying to
time the markets.

Speaker 1 (02:05):
Oh yeah, there's uh, you know, there's a whole graveyard
of people of market timers. You know, we we do
it as part.

Speaker 3 (02:11):
Of our job.

Speaker 1 (02:11):
We have to. We asked, we're asked by clients that
kind of you know, whether it's the S and P
five hundred or sectors or stocks. I mean, that's our job,
and that's it's most you know, asset manager's job is
to try and time when to buy certain stocks or
do certain things with their investments. And I mean, look,
sometimes we get it right, sometimes we get it wrong.
I would say we had a stretch where I felt

(02:32):
like we got everything right, and of course that never lasts.
The good news about investing is you can always change
your mind, which we've done, and we've you know, raised
our targets and we've changed our strategy to to deal
with what the market's giving us. And that's really the
game is just take what the market gives you. Don't
fight what the market's telling you. That's the best analyst
in the world is what the market internals are saying.

(02:53):
We use it as part of our process, actually, and
I think that's that's the best way to be is
just be humble about it, and you know, don't be
afraid to say, hey, we're wrong. I mean, like I
think Smador expected to be right all the time, and
nobody is and being wrong is not a sin. It's
just you know, staying on the wrong side of things
for too long is a problem.

Speaker 2 (03:13):
Mike Wilson of Morgan Stanley, and then we talked to
Brian Belski. What a moment there to talk to Michael
Barr and Brian Belski about the NFL North, the Lions
big win over the Vikings. It was great. They really
really dug into that. And of course we look forward
to Thanksgiving, important holiday. I believe it's Lions Bears will

(03:34):
be that twelve noon game. That is such a tradition
for the nation. Another tradition is to try to guess
a bull market. Brian Belski of Bemo Capital Markets has
just absolutely nailed the bull call.

Speaker 3 (03:47):
Here Belski on the view forward, I think stay invested.
I think trying not to time. I think people have
become so afraid to be wrong, they don't want to
be right. I think part of this is a function
of what happened during the tech wreck that was exacerbated
during the Great Financial Crisis, which created the generational buying
opportunity in two thousand and nine, when we came out

(04:08):
with our twenty five year secular BOWLMARKT called twenty ten.
So we remain resolute on this. We're entering year three
of the Bowl, and I think you know, going forward,
our longer term trend has been normalization. We've been talking
about it for three years.

Speaker 2 (04:20):
Brian Belski. He framed up beautifully. Okay, double digit thirteen twelve,
fourteen percent returns, maybe not, but then subsiding down to
some form of low double digit, high single digit world
for Brian Belski and Demo Capital Market's run on YouTube.
Subscribe to Bloomberg podcast growing each and every day. He

(04:43):
just thrilled with a live chat effort that we've got
there as well in Apple car Play and Android Hotto.
Major shot out to people on Spotify. I have underplayed
this totally. I don't do Spotify full disclosure, but it's
a huge deal Spotify podcasts, YouTube podcasts, Apple podcasts, which

(05:06):
is always single best idea