December 11, 2024 • 5 mins
Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio.
In this episode, we feature conversations with Andrew Sheets & Elizabeth Economy.
Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2 (00:14):
Single best idea and we're going to keep it short today.
The news flow here just absolutely extraordinary. Is you know,
you come in on a Wednesday before Christmas is sort
of like you know, okay, there's CPI great service sector
was a little bit higher. Excuse me, thank you Ira
Jersey of Bloomberg Intelligence. There you know, like two minutes out,
he's got the key statistics. Service sector inflation is running
(00:37):
at a four and a half percent level. What else
do you need to know? And you know it's great
to see in the market lift here off of Apple
and Broadcommon, the distraction of a grocery merger blowing up
and to the as we tape this, I'm not sure
if Mandoleese is going after Hershey Pennsylvania. I don't maybe
they get the Hershey bears it as well. That's a
(00:57):
hockey team for my childhood. Anyway, it's crazy day, so
let's get to it quickly. Here Andrew Sheets joined from
Morgan Stanley, and you know, to me, the great vector
is is inflation flat. Good morning, Jim biarn'co. Brilliant call.
Good morning, Lindsay Pieg's a brilliant call, Good morning, Mohammed Alarian,
(01:17):
brilliant call. Or do we have a vector of disinflation
Ander Sheets of Morgan Stanley.
Speaker 3 (01:23):
We do see disinflation in place, although you know not
yet you know inflation is still holding up through the
end of the year. Where we, I think are are
a little bit more optimistic on inflation than the consensus
is next year, where we see inflation coming down and
I think importantly it's really coming down in the first
half of the year, where for the incoming Trump administration,
(01:44):
we think it's going to be a case where policy
has kind of fast announcement but slow implementation. You don't
get the inflationary effects of tariffs of immigration changes until
kind of in the back half of twenty twenty five,
and in the first part of the year. We think
that a lot of inflation which is being driven by
shelter auto insurance, that that can come down, that those
(02:04):
series are running well ahead of where the real economy
markets for those are, and that some of the difficult
seasonality in January in February, which previously is boosted inflation,
we think that actually sets an attractive bar that might
make it a little bit easier for inflation to be
a little bit better than expected. So we do see
inflation coming down. We see that disinflation the first half
(02:25):
of the year, and we think that will mean that
the FED cuts not just this month but in January
as well.
Speaker 2 (02:30):
Andre Sheets and Morgan Stanley with their call, and there's
like eighteen other calls out there as well. But to
Iira Jersey's point, I just am absolutely fascinated on an
easy rate cut December eighteenth. Then what for the Fed
is a huge opening question. It was great to have
in the studios today Jay Brison of Wells Fargo Economics.
(02:52):
Doctor Bryson was really really tentative given the uncertainties that
are out there with a Wells Fargo call again looking
for disinflation as well. She has been silent for I'm
going to say three even four years. Elizabeth Economy is
definitive on China. She has done public service for America
(03:13):
with the Department of Congress, with Gina Romando being her
important Asia advisor. Doctor Economy is now at Stanford University.
It was great to get an update with her on
the new revolution that is China.
Speaker 1 (03:28):
I mean, I'm not sure that there's really a way
to buy at the line.
Speaker 4 (03:32):
I think there's a way to ensure that the United States,
you know.
Speaker 1 (03:38):
Is the dragon.
Speaker 4 (03:39):
I guess in the sense that you know, what I
think our message should be is that we're still looking
toward US leadership on the global stage, right and US
technological leadership and military leadership.
Speaker 1 (03:52):
I think, to me, what we want to do is
to run faster. I sometimes worry that we over index
on our defensive tools, and so that would be a concern.
I think with President Trump and you know, sort of
the approach of just letting more tariffs, I'd like to
see US invest more, you know, in science and technologies.
We're still waiting to see the science rart of the
(04:15):
the Chips Act. I think that, to me is what
the United States needs to do, and not simply say
we don't want China to do this, stop China from
doing that.
Speaker 2 (04:24):
Elizabeth Economy can't say enough about it work the Third Revolution.
I read it cover to cover. It was I think
my book of the Summer a couple of years ago
is still very fresh on President Gee. Can't say enough
about doctor Economy's work. Now it's Stanford. I thought it
would be somewhat quiet today. I was wrong, wrong, wrong,
please stay with us through the week and up to
(04:45):
December eighteen FED meeting. I don't know what happens December nineteenth.
Maybe we just roll up and go away, but I'll
tell you it is really something to behold. Right now
we are out on YouTube podcast. This is a single
best idea sen
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2 (00:14):
Single best idea and we're going to keep it short today.
The news flow here just absolutely extraordinary. Is you know,
you come in on a Wednesday before Christmas is sort
of like you know, okay, there's CPI great service sector
was a little bit higher. Excuse me, thank you Ira
Jersey of Bloomberg Intelligence. There you know, like two minutes out,
he's got the key statistics. Service sector inflation is running
(00:37):
at a four and a half percent level. What else
do you need to know? And you know it's great
to see in the market lift here off of Apple
and Broadcommon, the distraction of a grocery merger blowing up
and to the as we tape this, I'm not sure
if Mandoleese is going after Hershey Pennsylvania. I don't maybe
they get the Hershey bears it as well. That's a
(00:57):
hockey team for my childhood. Anyway, it's crazy day, so
let's get to it quickly. Here Andrew Sheets joined from
Morgan Stanley, and you know, to me, the great vector
is is inflation flat. Good morning, Jim biarn'co. Brilliant call.
Good morning, Lindsay Pieg's a brilliant call, Good morning, Mohammed Alarian,
(01:17):
brilliant call. Or do we have a vector of disinflation
Ander Sheets of Morgan Stanley.
Speaker 3 (01:23):
We do see disinflation in place, although you know not
yet you know inflation is still holding up through the
end of the year. Where we, I think are are
a little bit more optimistic on inflation than the consensus
is next year, where we see inflation coming down and
I think importantly it's really coming down in the first
half of the year, where for the incoming Trump administration,
(01:44):
we think it's going to be a case where policy
has kind of fast announcement but slow implementation. You don't
get the inflationary effects of tariffs of immigration changes until
kind of in the back half of twenty twenty five,
and in the first part of the year. We think
that a lot of inflation which is being driven by
shelter auto insurance, that that can come down, that those
(02:04):
series are running well ahead of where the real economy
markets for those are, and that some of the difficult
seasonality in January in February, which previously is boosted inflation,
we think that actually sets an attractive bar that might
make it a little bit easier for inflation to be
a little bit better than expected. So we do see
inflation coming down. We see that disinflation the first half
(02:25):
of the year, and we think that will mean that
the FED cuts not just this month but in January
as well.
Speaker 2 (02:30):
Andre Sheets and Morgan Stanley with their call, and there's
like eighteen other calls out there as well. But to
Iira Jersey's point, I just am absolutely fascinated on an
easy rate cut December eighteenth. Then what for the Fed
is a huge opening question. It was great to have
in the studios today Jay Brison of Wells Fargo Economics.
(02:52):
Doctor Bryson was really really tentative given the uncertainties that
are out there with a Wells Fargo call again looking
for disinflation as well. She has been silent for I'm
going to say three even four years. Elizabeth Economy is
definitive on China. She has done public service for America
(03:13):
with the Department of Congress, with Gina Romando being her
important Asia advisor. Doctor Economy is now at Stanford University.
It was great to get an update with her on
the new revolution that is China.
Speaker 1 (03:28):
I mean, I'm not sure that there's really a way
to buy at the line.
Speaker 4 (03:32):
I think there's a way to ensure that the United States,
you know.
Speaker 1 (03:38):
Is the dragon.
Speaker 4 (03:39):
I guess in the sense that you know, what I
think our message should be is that we're still looking
toward US leadership on the global stage, right and US
technological leadership and military leadership.
Speaker 1 (03:52):
I think, to me, what we want to do is
to run faster. I sometimes worry that we over index
on our defensive tools, and so that would be a concern.
I think with President Trump and you know, sort of
the approach of just letting more tariffs, I'd like to
see US invest more, you know, in science and technologies.
We're still waiting to see the science rart of the
(04:15):
the Chips Act. I think that, to me is what
the United States needs to do, and not simply say
we don't want China to do this, stop China from
doing that.
Speaker 2 (04:24):
Elizabeth Economy can't say enough about it work the Third Revolution.
I read it cover to cover. It was I think
my book of the Summer a couple of years ago
is still very fresh on President Gee. Can't say enough
about doctor Economy's work. Now it's Stanford. I thought it
would be somewhat quiet today. I was wrong, wrong, wrong,
please stay with us through the week and up to
(04:45):
December eighteen FED meeting. I don't know what happens December nineteenth.
Maybe we just roll up and go away, but I'll
tell you it is really something to behold. Right now
we are out on YouTube podcast. This is a single
best idea sen
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