Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Bret Barker & John Stoltzfus

Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio.

In this episode, we feature conversations with Bret Barker and John Stoltzfus

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news.

Speaker 2 (00:12):
Single best idea, the last one of the year. We
will revisit in January to reframe what seems to be
an exceptional twenty twenty five. I just mentioned to Paul Sweeney,
I've never seen a holiday season with less focus on
how stores are doing. I don't know why that is.
Maybe we'll pick up the pieces in January. One thing

(00:35):
I heard two or three days ago which I do
agree with, and I think it's important. We're setting ourselves
up for an exceptionally important earning season. Look for that
January twenty five ish. I think Apple's January thirtieth and
into early February with a frenzy JP Morgan I'm assuming
is I don't have it in front of me January fifteenth, seventeenth, whatever.

(00:58):
But the earning season I think this year, for the
fourth quarter will really be something on this final single
best idea for the year on what I watch most closely,
which is the inflation adjusted rate tips piece tenure. Here's
Brett Barker of TCW on the left coast. Brett Barker

(01:18):
on higher real rates.

Speaker 3 (01:20):
This is really reminiscent of fall of twenty twenty three.
If you remember back then, there was a lot of
talk of risk premium fiscal largess, right, and we had
real rates in the thirty yearth sector close to two sixty.
We're not too far from there now, and the ten
year rates within twenty base points where we were there.
So I think we look at that. I think real
rates are restricted. So for us, I think you're getting
close to these points. I think people are talking about
how we can go. It's like, well, I think at

(01:42):
this point at time, you're basically back to almost PREGFC
levels on real rates, and we don't think the economy
is the same as it was in PGFC, so we
think these are pretty restricted real rates.

Speaker 2 (01:50):
That's really important statement Brett Barker TCW. Here, and this
is this restrictive or accommodative goes to the heart of
the matter. That's the debate that's engaged in economics, finance, investment,
and indeed redounding over to international relations as well and
the real rate. You know, but for those of you
that don't follow this, from a one point nine zero

(02:11):
ish out to two point twenty five ish is a
really significant move. TCW cautious there as well on a
Christmas Eve, Benjamin Ladler then at HSBC. This is twenty
eighteen twelve, twenty four eighteen. Ben Ladler said, get on
board stocks. It's one of the great bullmarket calls of

(02:33):
all time. It's been a six year run EBB and
flow here COVID. I looked in two thousand and I
think twenty three. Maybe we had a draw down a
seven or eight percent. Whatever, the answer is, it's been
a great bullmarket. And congratulations to strategists that have led
on that. One who's led is from OpCo. His name
is John Stolfis. He writes a brilliant short accessible non

(02:56):
Mathey notes, and they talk about participation in the market
and participating with an optimism the corporations will adapt. He
has a stunning call out the SPX seven thousand ish
that gets you out near DOWBT forty nine thousand, Dow
fifty thousand, maybe with some optimism and a cup of

(03:17):
eggnag out to fifty one thousand on the doubt. John
STOFISOVOPKO the view forward.

Speaker 1 (03:24):
First thing, I've got to say that I think the
bears got it wrong and that they thought the FED
was going to blow up the economy. Push US into
a recession with the with the Ray high cycle that
they started in March twenty two. Instead, the Fed was
very sensitive in exercising its dual mandate. Then the bear's

(03:45):
been really bid wrong on the consumer. We always say,
don't bet against the American consumer. The consumer discretionary, by
the way, is the best performing S and P five
hundred index since August fit which was the summer low,
which was when the market had that fullback of around
eight percent.

Speaker 2 (04:06):
Paul Sweeney told me to buy Walmart. I didn't. I
guess that's consumer discretionary. John Stolphus of OpCo on your
community across the nation on Apple car Play worldwide, on
Apple car Play and Android Auto, on Serius XM channel
one twenty one and from Nathan Hagars Washington in ninety
nine one FM, Tamal Kataden and Boston in ninety two

(04:30):
nine and on YouTube. All I can say is subscribe
to Bloomberg podcast. It is our future and my future
here at Bloomberg Surveillance, and of course this podcast find
it a YouTube podcasts. This is single best idea by