July 7, 2025 • 5 mins
Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio.
In this episode, we feature conversations with Kathy Bostjancic & Lori Calvasina.
Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2 (00:14):
The single best idea. We've been doing this a few
years and it's now getting the weirdness meter. The surveillance
weirdness meter is off the chart. And I don't mean
to be inflammatory, and I'm not predicting anything about equities, bonds, currencies,
or commodities, but the uncertainty out there, I want to
(00:35):
go through this. I think it's so so important. There
are three words in economics, risk, uncertainty, and ambiguity. Let
me start with the ambiguity, which is the least important
Douglas North, Nobel Prizeman or Washington, University of Saint Louis.
Ambiguity means a couple different things, and it's sort of
(00:56):
like in microeconomics, where something can happen and it cuts
eye their way, and it's ambiguous which way it cuts
whatever chart you're looking at or thought you're looking at
frankly algebraic equation. But also ambiguity around institutions, and it's
just an uncertain feel because of the ambiguous nature of institutions.
(01:20):
And then there's risk, which is a measurable doubt, a
measurable probability, a measurable uncertainty, and now everybody's tossing around
the word uncertainty. I mean, I'm hearing it about every
seven minutes on the show. We got a tip chart
we have the show. Every time someone mentions uncertainty, that's
the unmeasurable. And on this Monday, the unmeasurable, particularly off Teriff,
(01:45):
wonderment of the Trump administration is absolutely I've never seen
it like this. You need to get a view of
the American economy. We do that with Kathleen bus Johonsick
of Nationwide point.
Speaker 1 (02:00):
That there's certainly dichotomy across the US economy and depending
where you are, particularly on the income spectrum, you're feeling
tougher times than others.
Speaker 3 (02:15):
I would say, though even.
Speaker 1 (02:16):
For lower income, lower middle income, they're struggling.
Speaker 3 (02:21):
But it's not a recession. The unemployment rate is still
quite low. Although you know that said, if we adjust
for the drop in the participation rate, the unemployment rate
would have been four point seven as on Friday instead
of four point one. What we have seen is a
participation rate drop quite sharply the last two months, and
(02:45):
because discouraged workers, So the discouraged worker increase in June
was a record monthly increase going back to I think
it's nineteen ninety five.
Speaker 2 (02:54):
That's the clearest explanation I've heard of this. David Rosenberg
with a brilliant note out of Toronto Friday or Saturday,
I can't remember when. I really want to emphasize that.
A lot of people I respect are saying, Okay, it
was a really pretty good jobs report, but it wasn't.
And there it is some Kathleen bus johnsick when you
take the goofy math of unemployment and labor which Mike
(03:17):
McKee gets and I don't. The answer is the unemployment
rate would have been four point seven percent given labor
force participation. Really something to think about is Chairman Powell
goes to a July FED meeting on the stock market
and the ability to be in the market. We got
a briefing from Lori Calvacina, RBC Capital Markets.
Speaker 4 (03:38):
If I think back to my most recent trip to
Canada seeing investors up there, it was a very different
trip than what i'd say had back in December and
what I had had back in February, when I would
say we would go into meetings and the conversations were
pretty much all about tariffs when you talked to a
lot of global investors in Canada who are always sort
of thinking about countries and comparing them. We heard plenty
(04:00):
of conversation about tariffs on this last trip, but there
was also a lot of emphasis on AI and productivity
in the US, and people were actually starting to talk
about some non tariff related things. And I know that
sounds a little bit shocking, but I would say it
was not as negative a vibe as what I had
seen earlier in the year orar late last year.
Speaker 2 (04:18):
Larry Kavasina, RBC Capital Marcus and of course that dovetails
into a fascinating earning season. Paul said it best. I
think he said. He pass SWEENI said, but it's also
about the guidance that will be there. Will we see
guidance given all the uncertainty that's out there. We'll try
to guide you on economics, finance, investment, and international relations
(04:39):
through the week across the nation on Apple and Spotify,
on YouTube podcasts. This is a single best idea
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2 (00:14):
The single best idea. We've been doing this a few
years and it's now getting the weirdness meter. The surveillance
weirdness meter is off the chart. And I don't mean
to be inflammatory, and I'm not predicting anything about equities, bonds, currencies,
or commodities, but the uncertainty out there, I want to
(00:35):
go through this. I think it's so so important. There
are three words in economics, risk, uncertainty, and ambiguity. Let
me start with the ambiguity, which is the least important
Douglas North, Nobel Prizeman or Washington, University of Saint Louis.
Ambiguity means a couple different things, and it's sort of
(00:56):
like in microeconomics, where something can happen and it cuts
eye their way, and it's ambiguous which way it cuts
whatever chart you're looking at or thought you're looking at
frankly algebraic equation. But also ambiguity around institutions, and it's
just an uncertain feel because of the ambiguous nature of institutions.
(01:20):
And then there's risk, which is a measurable doubt, a
measurable probability, a measurable uncertainty, and now everybody's tossing around
the word uncertainty. I mean, I'm hearing it about every
seven minutes on the show. We got a tip chart
we have the show. Every time someone mentions uncertainty, that's
the unmeasurable. And on this Monday, the unmeasurable, particularly off Teriff,
(01:45):
wonderment of the Trump administration is absolutely I've never seen
it like this. You need to get a view of
the American economy. We do that with Kathleen bus Johonsick
of Nationwide point.
Speaker 1 (02:00):
That there's certainly dichotomy across the US economy and depending
where you are, particularly on the income spectrum, you're feeling
tougher times than others.
Speaker 3 (02:15):
I would say, though even.
Speaker 1 (02:16):
For lower income, lower middle income, they're struggling.
Speaker 3 (02:21):
But it's not a recession. The unemployment rate is still
quite low. Although you know that said, if we adjust
for the drop in the participation rate, the unemployment rate
would have been four point seven as on Friday instead
of four point one. What we have seen is a
participation rate drop quite sharply the last two months, and
(02:45):
because discouraged workers, So the discouraged worker increase in June
was a record monthly increase going back to I think
it's nineteen ninety five.
Speaker 2 (02:54):
That's the clearest explanation I've heard of this. David Rosenberg
with a brilliant note out of Toronto Friday or Saturday,
I can't remember when. I really want to emphasize that.
A lot of people I respect are saying, Okay, it
was a really pretty good jobs report, but it wasn't.
And there it is some Kathleen bus johnsick when you
take the goofy math of unemployment and labor which Mike
(03:17):
McKee gets and I don't. The answer is the unemployment
rate would have been four point seven percent given labor
force participation. Really something to think about is Chairman Powell
goes to a July FED meeting on the stock market
and the ability to be in the market. We got
a briefing from Lori Calvacina, RBC Capital Markets.
Speaker 4 (03:38):
If I think back to my most recent trip to
Canada seeing investors up there, it was a very different
trip than what i'd say had back in December and
what I had had back in February, when I would
say we would go into meetings and the conversations were
pretty much all about tariffs when you talked to a
lot of global investors in Canada who are always sort
of thinking about countries and comparing them. We heard plenty
(04:00):
of conversation about tariffs on this last trip, but there
was also a lot of emphasis on AI and productivity
in the US, and people were actually starting to talk
about some non tariff related things. And I know that
sounds a little bit shocking, but I would say it
was not as negative a vibe as what I had
seen earlier in the year orar late last year.
Speaker 2 (04:18):
Larry Kavasina, RBC Capital Marcus and of course that dovetails
into a fascinating earning season. Paul said it best. I
think he said. He pass SWEENI said, but it's also
about the guidance that will be there. Will we see
guidance given all the uncertainty that's out there. We'll try
to guide you on economics, finance, investment, and international relations
(04:39):
through the week across the nation on Apple and Spotify,
on YouTube podcasts. This is a single best idea
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