Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Stephanie Roth & Libby Cantrill

Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio.

In this episode, we feature conversations with Stephanie Roth & Libby Cantrill.

Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

Speaker 2 (00:14):
A single best idea, the single best idea in July
is to avoid the summer doldrums and focus. You can
focus on reading, you can focus on some of the
conversations that we have. I just finished my book of
the summer, Ken Rogoff's Our Dollar, Your Problem Adam posing
with us today. Off of that, a great summinar coming

(00:34):
up in September with Ken Rogoff at the Peterson Institute.
But there's a lot to think about and talk about,
even in the eighty five and ninety degree heat. So
let us get started. Stephanie Roth at Wolf Research Optimistic
Q three, optimistic Q four a real change in tone
to a better economy. Here's Stephanie Roth.

Speaker 3 (00:55):
I mean, this has been a difficult backdrop the forecast,
but I have conviction that three could be okay and
then Q four could start getting better. And the reasons
are we're currently now absorbing the terriff impact that should
take a couple of minds unknown, which wasn't no. No.
Now it's still an unknown, but less less unown than
it was, so we had we're sort of pointing in

(01:16):
our estimates in terms of what's being absorbed. We're are
based on our own numbers where we've absorbed that thirty
five percent of the impact. We expect that we'll see
that for the next couple of months. So we still
might see a sluggish brack drop through Q three Q four.
That should start to inflect higher. You should start to
see travel demand improve, good spending. There's a bit of
an air pocket right now that should pick up. And

(01:37):
then you start to look into twenty twenty six where
fiscal stimula should have an effect on the economy, about
boosting GDP by about forty point.

Speaker 2 (01:44):
A real nugget there where Stephanie Roth says thirty five
percent of the tariff angst maybe has been unwound so far.
I have no clue, but that's a good working number
to move forward with Libby control, with us, with PIMCO,
and later in the conversation usual Washington talk, I asked
her about the America that's being left behind. Let's listen.

Speaker 4 (02:06):
I think that's absolutely right, and I mean, this is
part of the reason why I think the majority of
Americans elected President Trump is that they did feel like
the sort of the establishment that the elites, the Bloomberg elites,
if you will, Tom, we're you know, we're leaving the
kind of the working person behind. I'm not sure if
those folks feel like that. The Trump administration elites yet

(02:29):
yet have addressed some of those concerns, particularly around cost
of living. I mean, these are all, you know, kitchen
table issues. These are still are the most important for voters.
And I'm not that that doesn't seem to have gone
away if you just look at least that's for the pulling.
Take that with a grain of salt.

Speaker 2 (02:44):
Let me Kentrell. They're really interesting political discussions today. ConTroll
with PIMCO, and thank you Wendy Schiller Brown University as well.
In the midterm elections, they're out there. They're not upon us,
but you know, November of twenty twenty six in some
way or foreign beckons, thank you so much for your interest.
On podcasts on Spotify, on Apple podcasts as well, and

(03:08):
on YouTube podcasts. It's single best idea.