Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Stuart Kaiser & Brian Belski

Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio.

In this episode, we feature conversations with Stuart Kaiser & Brian Belski.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

Speaker 2 (00:13):
Single best idea with really really good conversations today. Thank
you for David Gura, just in from Aspen where he
was at the Defense Conference, interviewing Robert Gates, Robert Zellick
and Michael Frohman. The two together, Zellick and Frohman on
trade is just exquisite. Look for that out at the
Big Take. It's really really an important interview. I'm gonna

(00:35):
I'll dub it right now. It's the interview of July
across all of Bloomberg, Zellick and Frohman with David Gera
on the Big Take. Our interview at the moment was
Stuart Kaiser at City Group. I think we're in a bullmarket.
He writes these really complex pro future forward, lots of
mumbo jumbo jargon stuff. And I asked him about the quants,

(00:57):
the guys with a black box.

Speaker 3 (00:58):
On the quant side. These are folks that you know
are really investing very systematically in box. Some I mean
they wouldn't tell you they understand the box. You know
from a distance, we don't. Why are they, you know,
having some trouble. I would say that the s and
P five hundred, realized volatility is below ten percent right now,
so the S and P is not moving very much.
The factors that are quant my trade style stocks, value stocks,

(01:21):
grow stocks, those have been incredibly volatile, much more violatile
than the S and P five hundred itself. So if
quants are under pressure, it's because the market isn't moving
very much, but the tools they use are and that
sort of dislocation can be really tricky for them.

Speaker 2 (01:35):
Start Kaiser and let me pause there and talk about
the idea. And when I came to Bloomberg got shocked
by this. Where all economists are the same, They're not.
I think we sort of understand it. Academic economists people
like Adam Posen at a think tank, or Ken Rogoff
up at.

Speaker 4 (01:50):
Harvard, and others.

Speaker 2 (01:52):
Market economists that are very different, like Michael ferole on
today from JP Morgan on the strategist side, and particularly
he's strategist.

Speaker 4 (02:01):
Again, there's all different shades. There's twenty eight flavors of
equity strategy. In Stuart Kaiser is on a trading desk
with risk in play, wicked short term. It's City Group.
It's sort of like that TV show. Industry in London
or even like Billions. It's like sort of like what

(02:22):
you see Hollywood fake at It's City Group, except with
Stuart Kaiser it's a real deal. So he's looking at
incredible short term ideas. Brian Belski is a different flavor.
It helps at Belski's been incredibly right about a bull market,
but Brian Belski is looking much more long term, at

(02:44):
the understanding that people have long term investment and they
may have short term speculation, which is a trade of
six months or a year or dare I say long
term for Belski's maybe an eighteen month view. Here Brian
Bell's SI of Bemo Capital Markets on the moment at hand.

Speaker 1 (03:03):
Well, because it is emotion it's not based on the facts.
You want to buy these companies that are masterful in
their craft, that have amazing management teams, that have great
cash flow, and have I would say binary decisions made
about them that everybody agrees on, I e. We're never
gonna use Search again, which is which is ridiculous and oh,
by the way, searches up in the quarter. We actually

(03:23):
double down on Google and we added it to our
value portfolio because we love to buy broken growth. Oh yeah,
but when the stock was down in April, we put
it in our value portfolio. Why because it's a broken.

Speaker 4 (03:34):
Growth see Apple of Broken Growth story.

Speaker 1 (03:36):
No, I think Apple is a cash machine. You never
want to ever bet against the US consumer. And let's
let's put a semi coal in space and you never
want to bet against Apple.

Speaker 4 (03:45):
Brian Belski for too short a visit.

Speaker 2 (03:47):
We'll get him in for a much, much longer visit
here in the coming days and weeks. I'll be honest, folks,
Like the banks, I was interested tech was like, yeah, okay,
big deal. After what I saw from Google yesterday, I
am really to what we're going to see in technology
in the coming ten days. With the leadership of Caroline
Hyde and Ed Ludlow on Bloomberg Technology, it's a podcast

(04:09):
across the nation on Apple, on Spotify, and on YouTube podcasts.
It's single best idea.