Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Paul Donovan & Erica Groshen

Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio.

In this episode, we feature conversations with Paul Donovan & Erica Groshen 

Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

Speaker 2 (00:12):
Single best idea, We'll get right to it, and I say,
what an eventful August. It has become part of that
is synthesizing what's going on. In my litmus paper this morning,
the key point on my Bloomberg launchpad was a ten
year real yield. We are now down at the bottom
of the range one point eighty five percent, and any
movement down would be a huge ye. It was a

(00:34):
major theme for me today and that centers around the
growth bet here's Paul Dunovan of UBS.

Speaker 3 (00:42):
Well, it does.

Speaker 1 (00:43):
Mean I think that the bond market is focusing more
on the growth concerns. So to the extent that one
believes in the far sighted ability of bond traders, then
you know that's a signal of worries about the future. Personally,
I told my face in the far fight's ability of
economists so betrayed us. But you know whatever, So there's

(01:04):
an element there. As you're seeing that compression of the
real yield, it does at the margin help with the
sustainability of government financing because if the real yield is
coming down, what that is telling you is that you know,
tax revenues relative to indust rate costs are sort of shifting.
The revenue does a little bit better relative to the

(01:25):
industrate cost. Fairly marginal thing, but it does help, particularly
with a deficit as large as the United States now
has and with the debt level that it has.

Speaker 2 (01:35):
Paul Donovan of UBS and Uproar in the last three
four or five days over President Trump's firing of the
BLS Commissioner, Joe Wisenthal and Tracy Alloway speaking with William Beach,
the former commissioner. He's been a good friend of the
show back decades. We spoke with Erica Groshan, who was

(01:56):
there before William Beach. She said very good things about Beach.
But Erica Grosshen here on what the next BLS commissioner
should do.

Speaker 3 (02:07):
I think the next BLS commissioner should follow in the
steps of all of the preceding BLS commissioners, and that
really starts with the very first BLS commissioner, Carol Wright.
And we're talking about eighteen eighty four, and I want
to read you what he said about about the commitment

(02:32):
that he thought was the BLS was making to the
American people. He said BLS would be devoted to and
I quote, the fearless publication of the facts, regardless, without
regard to the influence those facts may have upon any
party's position or any partisan's views. That was eighteen eighty four,

(02:55):
and that, I think is what we're looking for. Someone
with the technical chops and the commitment that all the
previous BLS commissioners have had.

Speaker 2 (03:07):
Erica Groshen there now at Cornell and of course with
all of her work at BLS and before that the
New York Fed. On podcasts, we're just stunned by the
podcast response across the nation on Apple, on Spotify, and
on YouTube podcast Thank you. It's single best I do