Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Anna Wong & Kathy Bostjancic

Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio.

In this episode, we feature conversations with Anna Wong & Kathy Bostjancic.

Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

Speaker 2 (00:14):
The single best idea A really interesting Thursday, sort of
midsummer but not summer doldrums. The way this market's going
in the stimulus to the halves, the financialization of America.
It's certainly not a dull August. But it was a
great cross section of guests. Today. Anna Wong joined us,
of course with the Bloomberg Economics, a brilliant report out

(00:36):
and really the first one to begin to think about
not a quarter point twenty five beep cut here by
the Fed in September vote, could it be two quarter
points a fifty basis point beat on the labor economy
on the Fed, Anna Wong.

Speaker 3 (00:53):
The two months backward revision of two hundred and fifty
eight thousand drop in May and June's pay roles was
a three standard deviation outside of the mean phenomenon, and
that in a normal distribution means there's only a less
than a zero point two percent chance to see a
decline in jobs as large as as in terms of revisions.

(01:17):
And then when we drill into details, they found that well,
if you look at the private sector revisions, those are
there's a story there, and the probability of that happening
is actually not that out of line. You know, it's possible.
And however, the real black swan really is happening in
the government sector because normally the collection of government data

(01:40):
does not go through such big drastic changes in response
rates as the private sector does. And I did say
in the black Swan piece, which is that I.

Speaker 4 (01:50):
Think fifty bits could be in play because of all
these revisions, stuff that could happen in the August jobs
report that could make everything worse, plus the per andary
benchmark revisions.

Speaker 2 (02:01):
Somehow I think we could I'm not going to predict it,
but we could see more of that Moving towards the
September I believe seventeenth meeting, we have Jackson Hole out there.
We'll be there with Lisa Bramowitz and Michael McKee leading
our coverage. All of a sudden interesting Jackson Hole to
say the least, CPI data next week, and of course

(02:22):
the jobs report for August I believe it's September fifth
as well. Onto that meeting, we'll see if doctor Wong
gets her fifty basis points really good analysis of the
American economy with a Midwest field out of the Ohio
State's Columbus Ohio with Nationwide Kathleen miss Johnson, we.

Speaker 5 (02:43):
Have done that exercise, and part of the calculus that
we're doing that is you've got to look at this
live side of things. So I think it may be
tough to get to five percent. In fact, we see
it kind of peaking around four point six percent, maybe
four to seven at most, but you're decline and supply,
so that means the unemployment rate itself doesn't climb that much.

Speaker 2 (03:05):
This came up at least three times today. I've asked
it before. You know, it's not an original idea, but
let's go with it. Is a five percent unemployment rate
in twenty twenty five, the same as a five percent
unemployment rate, say in twenty fifteen. Or to go more granular,
is Kathleen bus Johnstick did there is a four point

(03:27):
six percent unemployment rate, the new five percent. There's a
lot going on on labor demand and labors supply. We
demand you listen out on your podcast out on Apple,
on Spotify, and on YouTube podcasts. It's single best idea