October 7, 2025 • 4 mins
Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio.
In this episode, we feature conversations with Matt Miskin & Barry Ritholtz.
Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
Single best idea and we say good morning to you.
Not as hectic as Monday, but it was a really
interesting today. Dell Out with a huge announcement and it
wasn't so much in numbers. Who knows what the numbers are,
that's their view, but it was the timeline dell Out
framing out to Dina Bass of Bloomberg News, a two
year view with some real certitude, and then even extrapolating
(00:37):
out from there to two thousand and thirty. It's single
handedly lift the market for about an hour and we'll
see how we get through the day. Really interesting set
of guests today. Matt Miskan with us from John Hancock.
They have nailed the buy America by high quality call.
Matt Miskan an update on this raging artificial intelligence.
Speaker 3 (01:00):
Look the AI trade. I get it right now. If
you basically come out with a headline saying you're selling
staples or paper clips to a company that's in AI,
you get a massive multiple expansions, huge stock ball. That
to me is concerning. But when you look underneath the
hood and you look at the best earnings growth across
all eleven sectors into the third quarter, even technology communications
(01:23):
services are on top, and so earnings growth is the
only way to get really appreciation from equities from here
in our view, and that's where we're following the cash flow.
Speaker 2 (01:32):
Matt Miskin there on the upcoming earning season. It starts
with JP Morgan next week. Tom McKenzie talking to James
Diamond today in London. But the earning season and the
revenue season will be extraordinary. The headline from Dell was
at high single digit revenue guestimate I'll center tendency eight
percent or so. That's a big number for someone selling
(01:55):
hardware as Dell is. It's just a really interesting announcement.
Of course, we'll see that through all of the earnings season.
The book to read for people whose heads are spinning
in this equity market moment, no question, it's Barry ritt
Holts How Not to Invest? Great book, even more so
in this October of twenty twenty five, Bury Ritt Holts
(02:19):
on the moment at hand.
Speaker 1 (02:20):
Markets always seem confusing most of the time. If you
think you understand exactly what's going on, you're probably fooling yourself.
And so we have all these crosscurrents. We tend to
put things into the context of up down, black, white, yes, no,
(02:41):
when the world is shades of gray. When things are
more complex, there are so many crosscurrents. People see a
softening of the labor markets and immediately start thinking recession.
We still have a fore handle on unemployment. Three point
seven eight percent a year go ridiculously low. Four and
(03:02):
a half is still considered full employment. So we have
a shortage of bodies. We have a shortage of skilled workers.
Twenty twenty five could actually be the first year in
history where the US sees a decrease in total population,
reduced immigration, increased deporting, and things like that. So the
(03:27):
non farm payrolls now we're not even getting the data,
but the last few data points were pretty punk. But
that doesn't necessarily mean we're either in an expansion or
a contraction. There's enough positive things going on in the
marketplace and the economy that maybe we're decelerating from a
three to three and a half percent GDP to two percent.
(03:50):
And I'm talking next quarter Q four, not Q three,
which looks like it's going to be a hot print.
Speaker 2 (03:56):
And Barry Ridholtz refuses to go out much further than
those two quarters. There's a lot of humility there. We're
on your podcast on Apple and Spotify and YouTube podcasts.
It's single best idea
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2 (00:13):
Single best idea and we say good morning to you.
Not as hectic as Monday, but it was a really
interesting today. Dell Out with a huge announcement and it
wasn't so much in numbers. Who knows what the numbers are,
that's their view, but it was the timeline dell Out
framing out to Dina Bass of Bloomberg News, a two
year view with some real certitude, and then even extrapolating
(00:37):
out from there to two thousand and thirty. It's single
handedly lift the market for about an hour and we'll
see how we get through the day. Really interesting set
of guests today. Matt Miskan with us from John Hancock.
They have nailed the buy America by high quality call.
Matt Miskan an update on this raging artificial intelligence.
Speaker 3 (01:00):
Look the AI trade. I get it right now. If
you basically come out with a headline saying you're selling
staples or paper clips to a company that's in AI,
you get a massive multiple expansions, huge stock ball. That
to me is concerning. But when you look underneath the
hood and you look at the best earnings growth across
all eleven sectors into the third quarter, even technology communications
(01:23):
services are on top, and so earnings growth is the
only way to get really appreciation from equities from here
in our view, and that's where we're following the cash flow.
Speaker 2 (01:32):
Matt Miskin there on the upcoming earning season. It starts
with JP Morgan next week. Tom McKenzie talking to James
Diamond today in London. But the earning season and the
revenue season will be extraordinary. The headline from Dell was
at high single digit revenue guestimate I'll center tendency eight
percent or so. That's a big number for someone selling
(01:55):
hardware as Dell is. It's just a really interesting announcement.
Of course, we'll see that through all of the earnings season.
The book to read for people whose heads are spinning
in this equity market moment, no question, it's Barry ritt
Holts How Not to Invest? Great book, even more so
in this October of twenty twenty five, Bury Ritt Holts
(02:19):
on the moment at hand.
Speaker 1 (02:20):
Markets always seem confusing most of the time. If you
think you understand exactly what's going on, you're probably fooling yourself.
And so we have all these crosscurrents. We tend to
put things into the context of up down, black, white, yes, no,
(02:41):
when the world is shades of gray. When things are
more complex, there are so many crosscurrents. People see a
softening of the labor markets and immediately start thinking recession.
We still have a fore handle on unemployment. Three point
seven eight percent a year go ridiculously low. Four and
(03:02):
a half is still considered full employment. So we have
a shortage of bodies. We have a shortage of skilled workers.
Twenty twenty five could actually be the first year in
history where the US sees a decrease in total population,
reduced immigration, increased deporting, and things like that. So the
(03:27):
non farm payrolls now we're not even getting the data,
but the last few data points were pretty punk. But
that doesn't necessarily mean we're either in an expansion or
a contraction. There's enough positive things going on in the
marketplace and the economy that maybe we're decelerating from a
three to three and a half percent GDP to two percent.
(03:50):
And I'm talking next quarter Q four, not Q three,
which looks like it's going to be a hot print.
Speaker 2 (03:56):
And Barry Ridholtz refuses to go out much further than
those two quarters. There's a lot of humility there. We're
on your podcast on Apple and Spotify and YouTube podcasts.
It's single best idea
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