Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: David Rosenberg & Martha Gimbel

Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio.

In this episode, we feature our conversations with Rosenberg Research founder David Rosenberg & Martha Gimbel of the Yale Budget Lab.

Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

Speaker 2 (00:12):
A single best idea, which is probably that today was
the single most original jobs day ever. It's a Tuesday,
and we had a sort of kind of like October
jobs report, a November jobs report two weeks after we
were supposed to see it, and then I guess we
move on to January. In two days we have the
inflation report, which I think is pretty much normal, but

(00:35):
don't hold me to that. I'll talk to Mike mckeeth
about that. It's an odd time coming out of government shutdown.
One of the oddities we've seen his rotation in the market.
Bringing up a theory which goes back one hundred years,
the Dow theory. The Dow theory is that the stars
aligned when the Dow Jones industrial average and the transportations

(00:57):
and the utilities go up together or down together. A
lot of good academic work on this in the nineteen
thirties and the depression, and it was sort of gospel
through World War Two and on my parents' fifties and sixties.
David Rosenberg of Rosenberg research on the Dow theory.

Speaker 3 (01:16):
The Dow theory advocates obviously like what they're seeing I
don't know, Tom, if you look at it more from
a fundamental perspective, what the transports are really telling you,
except for the fact that oil and fuel prices are
coming down. So there's a historic inverse correlation of minus
fifty minus sixty percent between what oil prices do in

(01:38):
the transports. So the transports are seeing their margins improve
because of this exogenous development taking place. On the oil
price going down, is it giving any confirmation on the economy?
I would push against that view.

Speaker 2 (01:53):
Really interesting idea there on oil, of course, the oil
Brent crude, the global price under sixty dollars a bit,
or West Texas Intermediate the American price so much based
off Texas and Oklahoma. West Texas Intermediate clocks in under
fifty six dollars a barrel. Those are wow statistics into
the end of the year. I do want to note

(02:15):
here that David Rosenberg spoke of Stephen Myron's disinflationary call
and really gave it some credence. There's a raging debate
about what inflation will be Q one of next year
and in to say, fourth of July Q two, what
will we see, say the end of May, what will
you see in that inflation report of June of next year.

(02:36):
What a raging debate right now. We'll do a lot
on that, I'm sure in the next six months. Think
Tank of the Year, without question, the Budget Lab at Yale,
their leadership on tariff analysis was outstanding. Martha Gimble drives
the ship, earning Tedesky with a shout out for the
work on tariff's. They're now beginning to look at AI

(02:58):
and they have an initial report. They make clear that
it's just a first report of many to come. This
is the Budget Lab at Yale and they're Martha Gimble
on AI.

Speaker 4 (03:09):
I mean, it would be unusual, right for there to
be no labor market disruption when you introduce a major
new technology. I think the thing that everyone keeps forgetting
right is that it takes time for technological disruption to happen.
It took decades for electricity to disrupt the labor market.
It even took a pretty long time for the Internet

(03:31):
to kick in, right. It wasn't like immediately in nineteen
ninety seven we were changing all the things, and so
you know, AI feel so big and people are expecting
to see, you know, impacts immediately. That's just not how
companies were.

Speaker 2 (03:45):
Martha Gimble at the Budget Lab at Yale. It's single
best idea. It's on a podcast AI. We use AI
every day here. That's on an Apple, on Spotify, on
YouTube podcasts. It's single best idea

Speaker 1 (04:00):
A man about in the