Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Anna Wong

Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio. 

In this episode, we feature our conversation with Anna Wong, Chief US Economist for Bloomberg Economics. 

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. A single best idea
and to give you a window into my single best
idea today is the Bloomberg message screen this morning at
eight thirty one lit up like a candle. Every inflation

(00:25):
reports important, some are more important than others. And then
with the government shut down, with the dearth of data,
Cameron christ was brilliant where he said, look, they just
dropped zero's into some of the unknown unknowns. The uproar
that Paul Sweeney and I saw after the inflation report,
the disinflation report was truly extraordinary. I got a blistering

(00:49):
note in from David Rosenberg who believes in disinflation. Anna
Wong agrees with David Rosenberg. She was very nuanced. We
had six seven, eight wonderful guests in today and along
of Bloomberg Economics linking this inflation report into the labor economy, well,
I think that.

Speaker 2 (01:08):
There is an underlying weakness in the labor market. I
think so Tom productivity boom happens when you have revenues
still rising and the micro level and the macro level
GDP will be strong in the first quarter. We know
that the shutdown, the rebounds from the shutdown is going
to going to boost first quarter GDP by about two

(01:31):
percentage point, yet the hiring is close to zero. That
means productivity is going to be growing at maybe three
percent in the first quarter of next year. So I
think that's what you're saying. You can have a week
labor market while you have a productivity boom. And I
think I think that a weak labor market and a
strong economy, those two narrative can go in parallel.

Speaker 1 (01:55):
Animong there talking about the surely the dynamics to pushing
the pull of how we come to a belief on
our economic future. Again, raging debate about this inflation report
with all the knock on effects of a shutdown just
as a one off Stephanie Roth nailed this this morning
in the heat of it at eight thirty two. Airlines

(02:17):
with huge disinflation into those statistics and other things, frankly
showing a persistent inflation. Some of the shelter and medical
costs would be highlighted. They're all much more on it
over the next twenty four hours with Michael McKee's a
leadership and our team in Washington. Again Ana Wong linking

(02:37):
this into FED policy in the Great American experiment.

Speaker 2 (02:42):
The very reason why we're not seeing inflation is because
the consumers are in trouble. The labor market weakness is real,
and consumers are feeling pinched. That's why firms have been
losing pricing power. So I think that trend will go
on for another six months or so, and then after
the tax season, as consumers have more money in their pocket,

(03:05):
maybe a couple thousand more, there you might see some
of this disinflationary pressure slowing.

Speaker 1 (03:11):
The word that I use on this, and she alluded
to it there. Doctor Wong was discussing the ambiguity the
outcome of a certain trend. So if we have disinflation,
if we have a quote unquote weaker consumer, if prices
come down, what does it mean Is that good? Is

(03:31):
it bad? Coloring all of what we do at surveillance
To borrow a phrase from doctor Wong Chicago, is about
price theory and the ambiguous outcomes that are out there.
Reason enough to stay with us. I looked it up
on the Bloomberg Eco Goo January ninth and on the
January thirteenth to get some clarity on the data before

(03:54):
that important January FED meeting on Podcasts are on Apple
or on Spotify. On YouTube podcast single, best Idea,