December 19, 2025 • 28 mins
Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.
Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Paul Sweeney & Alexis Christoforous
Friday, December 19th, 2025
Featuring:
1) Alicia Levine, Head of Investment Strategy at BNY Wealth, on why the 2026 market is poised for gains despite volatility.
2) Win Thin, Chief Economist at Bank of Nassau, discusses the potential for USD-JPY to decline on monetary policy divergence.
3) Katy Kaminski, Chief Research Strategist at AlphaSimplex, examines how rate cut hopes and tech uncertainty are shaping equity market swings.
4) Lisa Mateo joins with the latest headlines in newspapers across the US, including Wall Street Journal reporting on YouTuber-turned-Boxer Jake Paul facing former world champion Anthony Joshua tonight, and a Bloomberg News story on new online scams targeting travelers.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg
Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern
on Apple car Play or Android Auto with the Bloomberg
Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts,
(00:25):
or watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 2 (00:27):
Five hundred up fifteen percent. Nastak Composite up nineteen percent
year to date. Every year we have the naysayers, Oh,
next year is just can't live up to it, can't
live up to it. Let's let's find out what our
next guest thinks about all of this. And our next
guest is here in studio with us, Alicia Levine, head
of investment strategy at BNY Wealth. Alicia isn't going to
(00:47):
be I mean, can twenty twenty six live up to
the numbers of twenty twenty five?
Speaker 3 (00:53):
So we think yes, but we think it's a non
linear year this year and the way that was nonlinear
twenty five. Ultimately a year ago, we had a sixty
six hundred price target on the S and P and
we're ending more.
Speaker 4 (01:08):
Or less here. We moved our target up.
Speaker 3 (01:10):
You know, mad year as the market's recovered from you know,
peak Terra funcertainty. We're looking for seventy six hundred next year.
We just don't think it's linear. We are looking for
thirteen percent earnings growth, margins are expanding. In the end,
like there'll be policy noise, you know, there'll be issues
with maybe the dollar or with bond markets as Japan
is I see, But ultimately, you know.
Speaker 4 (01:32):
The fundamentals are the fundamentals.
Speaker 3 (01:33):
And every year the Pannicans tell you why this is
the year that it's all going to fall apart. And
what we've learned is corporate America is amazingly resilient. Think
of the shocks that have come in the last five years,
and we've another thing that's happened is earnings have moved
higher and margins have moved higher.
Speaker 5 (01:50):
Good point.
Speaker 2 (01:51):
So yeah, But I mean my question then becomes, what
about the job market, Because I mean, the pandemic was
a once in a lifetime sort of thing. So if
you take that out of the picture, on unemployment hasn't
been this high in years. If that, if the market
really starts to crack, so does that become the big
the big problem for.
Speaker 3 (02:08):
So I think this shue really is the labor market here,
and I think it's good that the Fed is cutting
and it's good that they've restarted the cycle over the summer.
I think Christopher Waller was really frankly far ahead on this,
seeing the cracks in the labor market earlier then the
official data was telling us that's the risk here. What
you're going to have though, in the first part of
(02:28):
the year is one hundred and sixty billion dollars coming
back to households through the tax code, so they'll be
immediate fiscal stimulus. And on top of that, you have
about two hundred billion coming towards the corporate sector for
capex and investing. And when corporates are raising cap x,
you don't get lower unemployed. You don't get lower employment, right,
(02:51):
so you sustain employment when there is capex. I think
this quarter is probably the worst quarter of the year.
It's probably we're feeling the slow down. Certainly the six
week shutdown was not helpful. Some of that growth that
we miss is going to come back in the first
quarter of next year. Some of it's gone forever. We're
feeling the effects of that this quarter. So this massive
(03:12):
fiscal stimulus coming in the first half of the year,
and the Feds in a cutting sente.
Speaker 6 (03:16):
Well, I'm sem Alexis. Alicia is on my starting five
of the all American over educated team. Here we go,
undergraduate from Brown. I just okay, that's fine. Masters and
a doctorate from Chicago. Can we stop in philosophy?
Speaker 5 (03:30):
And we stop?
Speaker 6 (03:31):
Then a postdoc from Stanford, and let's do another post
doc from Harvard. I mean enough already, I mean, come on,
get to work, Alicia. It's unbelievab. Every time I read this,
I'm like, read enough already, Alicia. We had some really
good earnings from corporate America this year. I mean the
second quarter, third quarter earnings have been really good. Are
they enough to support this market going forward?
Speaker 3 (03:51):
They're definitely enough to support the market. So again, let's
go back twelve months ago. The market is trading at
twenty one point six times earnings, and the pans are saying,
there's no way the market's moving higher because you know,
the SMP is overvalued.
Speaker 4 (04:06):
We've never been this high.
Speaker 3 (04:08):
We haven't been this high since twenty twenty one, and
then before that it's two thousand, right, so then you
get the bubble talk.
Speaker 4 (04:14):
So what happened this year?
Speaker 3 (04:15):
Earnings came in at thirteen and a half percent, beating
estimates by about six percent overall, driving the markets higher.
And so the market's up fifteen sixteen percent. Alexis, as
you said, on the back of earnings, because the multiple
is only responsible for about fifteen or twenty percent of
the S and P price moving up this year.
Speaker 4 (04:33):
So next year you need those earnings.
Speaker 3 (04:35):
Like, if you don't have earnings, you have a problem
in the market because the multiple is high. But as
long as that comes through, you know the market can
move higher. Here But again, like are you are you
moving to a place where this supports for appreciation are narrowing?
And probably that's the case. We can't see multiples moving
much higher from here.
Speaker 2 (04:54):
What about I just want to talk about oil because
it's just fascinating to me what's been going on with
oil and how you see that playing into the landscape
or opportunities or lack thereof in the new year.
Speaker 5 (05:06):
Because the world is.
Speaker 2 (05:07):
A wash in oil and the smart money is betting
on crude oil remaining in the mid fifties, you know,
for most, if not all, next year.
Speaker 3 (05:15):
Look, I mean that part of the Trump administration's plan
was to get oil prices down. You see agreements with
Saudi they're pumping, and so that is part of the
plan to bring inflation down. And once of course oil
prices are lower, the disinflation filters through everything in inflation
readings and inflation overall in the economy. So we do
(05:37):
think all oil prices probably are moving lower here. You know,
if there is any kind of deal with Ukukraine and Russia.
And I know a lot of people have lost a
lot of sleep over whether or not this can happen,
but if there's a Russia Ukraine deal, then you bring
Russian oil back onto the market, So you're going to have,
you know, a flood of supply. And so we think
(06:00):
that oil prices are probably tame, whether it's fifty or lower.
You know, we're not experts in oil pricing, but you know,
supply demands, there'll be a lot of supply.
Speaker 6 (06:09):
Alicia, we've had some very nice returns in the US
stock markets, but boy, if you look at EMA, I mean,
twenty thirty fifty gains its credit on a currency adjusted basis.
Speaker 4 (06:18):
It's infamble.
Speaker 6 (06:19):
What do you think about the US non US allocation
for twenty six.
Speaker 4 (06:23):
So it's a great question.
Speaker 3 (06:25):
The dollar dropped ten percent in the first quarter, yep, okay,
and that's when rest of world outperformed massively.
Speaker 4 (06:32):
Since and since July first, the dollar has actually gone nowhere.
Speaker 3 (06:36):
It's in that stable it's that stable Dixie range really
for the last six months. So I think the question
for and as a result, by the way, the S
and P is outperformed rest of world by about five
percent since April first, So since the tariff shock and
the recovery and tech driving the growth out of the
(06:56):
lows and then the rest of the market taking over.
Since September, the SMP is outperform rest of world since
that time. But on an annual basis, absolutely the SMP
is farleg okay. So what do we do for next year?
I think the answer is the dollar, Like what is
your view on the dollar? If you think the dollar
moves a couple of percentage points lower, then this possible.
(07:17):
Rest of world up performs, but you're not going to
see a twenty to thirty percent outperformance as you saw
this year. The steper year curve is interesting because that
is global and financials are in every index, so Japan,
Europe and emerging markets financials are massively part of the indussy.
So the steeper Yell curve also could move markets higher.
(07:37):
And our client base, we're overweight US, that's our client base,
and they believe in US exceptionalism. But we have a
healthy allocation to rest of world, and we just raised
actually our allocation in emerging markets equity end debt.
Speaker 4 (07:49):
All right, yeah, all right?
Speaker 2 (07:51):
What about commodities? I'm thinking precious metals. So is it
going to be another like standout year here? Are they
going to finally take a breather?
Speaker 3 (07:57):
Unlikely to be the kind of view we had this year.
I think silver is something of a catch up trade
hasn't moved this way in the last twenty five thirty years.
I think on gold, it's very interesting. There's a new
factor here because it's no longer sort of gauging fiat
currency and whether central banks are too liquid or not.
It's really a central bank trade now because when the
(08:19):
US put sanctions on the Russian Central Bank, that was it.
Every every rogue nation or like soon to be rogue
nations started buying gold, and so again supply and demand
now there is a massive demand for gold assets, and
so we do think gold can move higher into next year.
Speaker 4 (08:36):
That's not the same move as we.
Speaker 3 (08:37):
See like, you can't you can't have the parabola every year.
Speaker 5 (08:40):
Yep.
Speaker 6 (08:41):
The Fed seems to be in a cutting mode here.
How important is that to your backdrop here?
Speaker 3 (08:45):
Hugely, hugely, hugely like the biggest like you know what,
what's the nightmare?
Speaker 4 (08:50):
The nightmare is you know that the FED wakes up.
Speaker 3 (08:54):
We have, you know, massive growth and inflation's over four percent,
and the Fed pivots pivs to a hiking cycle. So
a cutting or a waiting is fine for this market.
The hiking would not be fine. That is not in
any scenario we have. But clearly that is the lynchpin
to the risk of the market here.
Speaker 2 (09:15):
But that would mean inflation would have to really take
a leg up right, And so far the numbers, if
you believe them, don't seem to be pointing in that they're.
Speaker 3 (09:24):
Calling for inflation the second half of the year to
be much lower than it is now. You're cycling the
tariff issues. You're going to be done with that by
May June. It's going to move lower. And actually the
recent CPI, I know that there have been some issues
with OER and putting a zero in for the inflation
month over month, but Ultimately, I think the move was
too large on the CPI for it to be only
(09:44):
a data issue. There was softness all over there, and
actually housing costs and rental costs have been moving lower
for the last twelve months, so maybe there's some rebound,
but there is some disinflation in the system, and you're
going to lap the tariff issues by the spring.
Speaker 5 (09:59):
We should thank you so much for joining us.
Speaker 4 (10:01):
Really appreciate it.
Speaker 6 (10:01):
Alisia Levine, She's had an investment strategy at BNY Malthon.
We appreciate her coming in to our Bloomberg and Act
proper studio. Stay with us or from Bloomberg Surveillance coming
up after.
Speaker 1 (10:11):
This, you're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us
Live weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen
on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app,
or watch us Live on YouTube.
Speaker 6 (10:33):
A lot of economic data this week, the Ego Go function.
I was on that all the time.
Speaker 2 (10:37):
Yeah, thanks to the government shutdown, we're trying to play catch.
Speaker 6 (10:39):
Up, trying to play catch up here, So let's get
a little bit of a review here and what we
can think about going forward with this economy in twenty
twenty six, we can do that with our friend windin
chief economists at the Bank of Nasau. When we got
labor market data, we got some inflation data. What did
you take away from some of the government data this week?
Speaker 5 (10:55):
First of all, thanks guys for having me. It's always
a pleasure to be here. Look, there's some murmuring about, hey,
you know, there's some of this data maybe kind of sketchy.
It's incomplete, but you know, you can quibble about all
you want, maybe take here or take there. But really
the underlying signal through all its noises that the labor
market is cracking and inflation is coming now. So to me,
that sets up fed easy next year, more than what
(11:18):
the market's pricing in. I would just note the last
seven months starting in May, we've only added about one
hundred and twenty thousand jobs total seven months. The sevenths
before that was one point two million. If you're adding
Chair Powell's assertion that monthly games are overstayed by sixty k,
then we're talking about you know, minus three hundred hundred
(11:38):
negative negative, So you know, it's and all the other
sort of current adp Ravellio all the other I think
data really supports that. So, yes, you can quibble about
the reliability to data, but I think it's a signals
very clear.
Speaker 2 (11:51):
So the market is seems to be banking on two
interest rate cuts next year from the Fed. Powell was
a bit conservative and seem to mess signal one, where
are you at and all of that.
Speaker 5 (12:01):
Yeah, so I think the market is understating that the
capacity to the Fed at the ease. Again, I'm still
more worried about the labor market than I think than
many in the market. If you look at your WRPA,
your pages, it's I think the odds with January cut
are only twenty five percent, which I think is pretty
I'd say right now, I'd say it's a coin flip
depending and then with the deciding factor being the January
(12:23):
I'm sorry, the December jobs that comes out in early January.
So we got another jobs report, another CPI report, to
retail sales report that's going to kind of, I think,
inform the Fed. But really the trend is there. The
labor market is cracking. To Leasa's point, there's so many
companies that are starting to talk about in week outlooks
for sales consumers cutting back. I mean that's going to happen.
If the labor markets cracking.
Speaker 6 (12:44):
Four point six percent unemployment rate, that's still pretty good
in my mind.
Speaker 5 (12:48):
But what's underneath that that? Yeah, so I think you
have to see where we where we came from. Remember
we bottom at three point four percent and twenty twenty three.
You know, this whole debate about whether the Psalm rule
is still in impact because we're pretty much double what
the salmon would say in terms of recession. But now
I think most people's base cases that we have no
recession next year, and I have to I'm on board
with that, but I do think we have some slow
(13:09):
in growth. To me, the big issue for next year
is can the AI investment boom offset what I think
is coming a significant slow down consumer spending. That's the
to me, a million dollar question. I think it will
help offset it, but I don't think it can totally
overwhelm this. You know, the consumption consumption is seventy percent
(13:29):
of the US economy fixed as the investment is about
twenty percent. So it's really it's hard for us just
investment boom to really offset a big consumer slow down.
Speaker 2 (13:38):
So the labor market is your biggest concern heading into
the new year. How concerned are you that we might
slip into a recession?
Speaker 5 (13:45):
Yeah, so, you know again, I think that's a risk.
I think the market ods of a recession something like
twenty five to thirty percent odds. I think that's probably
are maybe a little bit high. I do think that
there is enough momentum in the US economy kind of
keep going. I just look for slow down a couple nothing,
A few rate cuts from the Fed can't, can't sort
(14:05):
of help. I'm looking for at least three, maybe four
cuts next year. The dot posity, as you point out
at one, which is to me just kind of silly.
We know inflation is coming down, a lot of the
tariff suff's gonna the year over year stuff will break
kind of fall off the base effect. We know the
labor markets cracking, so the you know again, you can
always kind of poke holes at what the Fed is saying.
(14:27):
But they're looking for four point four percent unemployment in
twenty twenty six, four point two percent in twenty twenty seven.
I'm not sure how that happens unless we get out
a sleration.
Speaker 1 (14:37):
Help.
Speaker 5 (14:38):
Yeah, we need some helping. Fed again, nothing the fedt
it's panic time, I think, but I think they should
be cutting sort of front loading these cuts. How's the
consumer doing at there? Well, at least it gave me
sale hands. I mean I've been piping hearings over and over. Yes,
you no guidance for next year? Is the concerns consumers
coming cutting back? I'm sure you've seen all the statistics
that you know, the bulk of retail, the consumption in
(15:00):
taste is being driven like sort of the high twenty percent,
it's sort of income bracket, whereas something like sixty seventy
percent of the economy consumers, the lower income consumers, are struggling.
We know, we know that. That's why we're talking about affordability.
You know, for us here in this room and our
listeners probably we're feeling probably pretty okay. Really form the
(15:21):
majority of Americas, I think they're struggling with the inflation.
Now we're getting these layoffs, you know, tepid job growth.
So it's a struggle. It's that whole K shaped column
that we talked about. And I have this debate, is
that upward K enough to upset the downward part of
the K. And you know that's to me a big
question for next year.
Speaker 2 (15:41):
So then where do you see I guess, strengthen the
economy next year. I mean, if it's not going to
be the consumer, if it's not going to be the
job market, where do we see sort of what become?
Because the consumer has been the pillar of this economy
for so long, right who sort of who are what
to provide? It's a foundation, if you will, for the economy.
Speaker 5 (16:02):
Yeah, so you look, you go back to econ one
on one, you got C plus idles, G plus net exports,
so consumer se you know, cutting back G in terms
of government spanding, cutting back We've given out some tax
cuts obviously under the Big Beautiful bill, but actual government
spending is going to be I think a net negative
next year. Net exports. That's a tough one given that,
you know, with this ongoing terraff force. So it's really
(16:23):
up to investment. And again I keep pointing to AI
that's been a big driver why a headline growth in
the US has been so strong. It's it's, uh, you know,
all this investment in energy chip production, all that can
I sustain? Is that enough to offset again seven percent
of the economy? Again, I I don't think it can
totally offset, but it'll kind of cushion the blow. And
(16:44):
again the FED starts cutting rates, we get some maybe
life in the housing sector which.
Speaker 2 (16:48):
Would be under pressure. Yeah, you know what's speaking of
which what is your outlook for the housing?
Speaker 5 (16:52):
Yeah, so we had some nice drop in mortgage rates,
you know, as the FED was cutting, but now they've
been kind of sideways and you look at some of
the housing they well, unfortunate we haven't had a lot
of the housing data because the shutdown, it starts trickle out.
But there seems to be some sort of modest recovery underway.
But again, I think the important thing and this is
I think what the FED is puzzling with us. The
(17:13):
FED controls a short end, what's going off the long end,
and long end has kind of stayed elevated, and that
we need to get the long end down to get
mortgage rates down. And that's we can spend an hour
or two talking about that.
Speaker 6 (17:22):
All right, Wenn, thank you so much for joining us.
Speaker 5 (17:24):
Really appreciate it.
Speaker 6 (17:25):
Whinin chief Econmers at the Bank of Nassault stay with
us or from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.
Speaker 1 (17:39):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live
weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern. Listen on
Applecarplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app, or
watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 2 (17:52):
Let's get a reality check now with Katie Kaminski, chief
research strategist at Alpha Simplex. Katie, thanks for being with us.
What's the I guess if you had a name the
top three trends to look for in stocks in twenty
twenty six, tick through those for us, what would they be?
Speaker 7 (18:08):
Well, I'd say, I mean, I think the AI trend
is the one that we've been following, but we have
seen some broadening in the last six weeks or so,
so I think it's going to be about finding the
winners and losers of this theme. And also we've seen
a lot of interesting action outside the United States, excluding
of course China. So I think for equities it's definitely
(18:31):
still a very positive signal. But we have seen a
lot of uncertainty recently, just given the range of possible
outcomes for next year, and I think we're kind of
watching this idea of extreme market environments for next year,
either really good or really challenging, depending on how things unfold.
Speaker 6 (18:50):
So we've got the Fed Katie cutting interest rates. I
guess the market's discounting maybe a couple more rate cuts
in twenty twenty six. How does that kind of influence
kind of the trend theory for fixed income in twenty
twenty six.
Speaker 7 (19:07):
This is actually something that I've been thinking a lot about,
and the reason is we've actually seen yields rising more recently.
I mean, look at today, You've seen also yields rising
globally across different economies such as Australia, Japan, and so
I think what's been interesting is the trend signals and
fixed income have actually moved to short views. So that
(19:30):
seems a little at odds with this idea that Fed
is cutting rates. So I think what we worry about
is that you may have a lower short term rate,
but that longer term rates may stay a little higher
than what a lot of investors are hoping for for
next year, especially given the potential for inflation. But of
(19:51):
course this week we saw a good inflation number, we
see energies down, So that leaves us kind of scratching
our heads a little bit about what will happen with
the fixed income markets now that signals are very muted
and even short internationally.
Speaker 2 (20:07):
Let's bounce over to commodities, because gee, what a year
it's been for the metals, right, yeah, I mean commodity markets.
Investors have been loving up their metals, and we're not
just talking about gold, silver, along for the ride, copper
as well, even though inflation is stabilizing, I guess if
you're to believe the latest numbers that we've gotten, So
(20:28):
what's the outlook for twenty twenty six, especially if inflation
doesn't really make a lot of noise for the market.
Speaker 7 (20:35):
Well, this is a really interesting point because we've been
watching these metals trends very closely and they have been
extraordinary this year. And what is really confusing from an
inflation perspective is that, you know, you see things that
are really important, like energies that are down quite a
bit this year, but you see the metal block that
(20:57):
has moved counter to that particular theme, and so you
have to start asking, like, what does this mean fundamentally?
Is this something that could be a catalyst or is
this something that's just out of sync with sort of
the inflation narrative altogether. It is concerning, particularly with copper
and other base metals, because these are directly linked to
(21:18):
industry and to production, so that would be an input
to something that could impact inflation. I think there's just
offsetting forces and the energies and other areas that have
kind of made it less of an extreme.
Speaker 5 (21:31):
Impact, Katie.
Speaker 6 (21:33):
The US dollar sold off pretty sharply there in the
beginning of the year when we had all that uncertainty
about the tariff rollout in April. But since then, I
don't know, it's kind of stabilized, maybe come back a
little bit here, but I don't see any trend for
the US dollar other than I guess we're just sitting
here at this level. What do you think?
Speaker 4 (21:51):
So this is a good point. A lot of people
are forecasting a weaker dollar.
Speaker 6 (21:57):
Smilance coming out.
Speaker 7 (21:57):
Of great cuts, but we just haven't seen those moves
come to fruition yet. We do see a lot of
a lot of volatility or bouncing around against against different currencies.
I read there's a lot of lot of location from
seven to eight globally, and that is an address to
(22:19):
an easy narrative. I do think at some point, should
we get aggressive rate cuts, we should expect a weeker dollar,
but that is just not in the data yet.
Speaker 2 (22:30):
And what are your thoughts or what are you hearing
from clients with regards to possible moderate mild recession maybe
in the first half of twenty twenty six.
Speaker 7 (22:41):
I think, I mean, the timing of that is going
to be tricky. We do think that we are in
an environment with relatively extreme outcomes. Look at China, it's
in a completely different place Australia Japan that you know,
you may see swings which are extreme in both directions.
The challenge for an investors is to project that, yes,
(23:03):
guarantee there's going to be a recession.
Speaker 4 (23:05):
What you really need to think about is that.
Speaker 7 (23:07):
These sort of flux in market conditions can take a
long time. So maybe we could actually have strong enough
growth and we don't actually see any sort of reversion
or some of these concerning scenarios until a couple of
months from now. So I think it's hard to predict
timing on these type of events, so preparing for it
may not be the right choice.
Speaker 6 (23:28):
All right, Katie, thanks so much. We always appreciate getting
a few minutes of your time. Thank you so much, Katiekaminski.
She's a chief research strategist at Alpha Sinquick stay with
us or from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after.
Speaker 1 (23:38):
This, you're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us
live weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen
on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app,
or watch us live.
Speaker 6 (23:59):
On YouTube very well, maybe the highlight of the day.
He's MATEO and newspapers, Lisa, what do you got.
Speaker 4 (24:05):
For all Right?
Speaker 8 (24:05):
We got a big event on Netflix tonight. Do you
know this guys? Twenty eight year old YouTuber Jake Paul
is back in the ring again.
Speaker 4 (24:12):
Yes, yeah, I heard this is I got all.
Speaker 8 (24:14):
The ads on my on my Netflix maj So remember
the big Netflix fight against Mike Tyson, right, that was huge?
But now he's fighting a guy a little bit, you know.
Speaker 4 (24:23):
Bigger than he is.
Speaker 8 (24:24):
Okay, So it's former World Olympic champion Anthony Joshua. He's
different from fifty eight year old Tyson back then. This
guy's thirty six, okay, but he's six foot six. He's
five inches taller than Paul. He has nearly two decades
of boxing experience, twenty five wins by knockout, and he's
thirty pounds heavier than Paul.
Speaker 2 (24:43):
Is Paul going down?
Speaker 5 (24:44):
I don't know.
Speaker 4 (24:45):
I think he might be going down on this one.
But here's watching that.
Speaker 5 (24:49):
Oh, I saw him.
Speaker 8 (24:51):
I'm a boxing fan, you are, but I just want
to see him get his butt kicked.
Speaker 4 (24:55):
And can I say that? I'm sorry?
Speaker 5 (24:57):
Wow, I did not know that.
Speaker 8 (24:59):
But either way he's going to take home around one
hundred million dollars if you win loses.
Speaker 5 (25:03):
If he wins or loses, how much one hundred million? Wow?
Speaker 6 (25:07):
I think maybe I'll go in the guy there, Holy Netflix,
I mean just more sports on Netflix.
Speaker 4 (25:13):
It's more sports.
Speaker 8 (25:14):
And last time I watched, like, there were a couple glitches,
Like because so many Netflix as an audience of sixty
million households worldwide, it's a new brainer for Netflix to
run this thing.
Speaker 4 (25:27):
Yeah, but he draws the crowds like people love.
Speaker 8 (25:30):
This guy used to be a social media influencer right
October just twenty eight, you know, but then he found
this call for boxing, and you know what, Hey, maybe
he'll win. I don't know to watch, I guess a
curious to find out.
Speaker 5 (25:43):
Bring us to the report back Monday morning, ladies. Thank you,
I'm not watching exactly.
Speaker 4 (25:47):
I'll give you the recap.
Speaker 8 (25:48):
Okay, this is a worry for travelers right if you're
going through the holiday season. Experts are saying, be very
careful because scammers are taking advantage of it. They're posing
as airline agents and they're taking a lot of people's money.
So this is the FTC. They're calling it business imposter,
business and impersonator scams. And it happened. This is a
Bloomberg article. It happened to the journalist who wrote the article.
(26:10):
Oh so and I get a credit tell your story
because you're like, how could you fall for that?
Speaker 2 (26:14):
But she did, and she I almost did. I was
planning a trip from my family a year ago. They
get on the phone with you right away. They sound
really professional, they say, and ask all the right things.
And I was about to give my credit card information
and something said, this doesn't sound they call you?
Speaker 4 (26:29):
Did you call I called them?
Speaker 2 (26:30):
Because when you do the search right, yes, a Google
search or whatever search, the fake stuff comes up first
with an eight eight eight number that looked like it
was the airline's number, but it wasn't. So the big
takeaway go to the website of that, or use the
app of that.
Speaker 5 (26:44):
Airline. I learned that on tickets. I got scammed for
the Eagles.
Speaker 6 (26:48):
At this sphere, remember that, And the day off, I'm
about to hop on the go to the airport, and
I realized I don't have tickets. These tickets didn't arrive,
and that was expensive.
Speaker 5 (26:58):
So I learned that.
Speaker 6 (26:59):
My So now I just go you have to go right.
Speaker 5 (27:02):
To what the source? Yeah, and it's true.
Speaker 8 (27:04):
And she was saying, like she called the number and
the person picked up on the first ring, and she
was like, I shouldn't known.
Speaker 4 (27:11):
Because usually you're waiting forever to talk to someone air too.
Speaker 6 (27:14):
Exactly, all right, Olive Garden, be careful.
Speaker 8 (27:16):
Okay, So this is a sign of inflation are affecting
America's dining habits. So you have Olive Garden. Remember the
never Ending Possible, Right, that's the whole thing. Now, Olive
Garden's serving lighter portions and apparently it's working. People love it.
They're having trouble keeping up with demand. We're talking smaller
questions like thirteen to fifteen bucks. But this is something
they don't even market like, I have.
Speaker 4 (27:37):
Never heard of this.
Speaker 7 (27:38):
Lighter men.
Speaker 8 (27:39):
Yeah, you're used to like the never Ending Possible, but
it's working for them. About forty percent of Olive Garden
menus offer this portion in the most recent quarter. Another
twenty percent are added recently, so they say, you know what,
this is working, maybe we should keep going with this.
Speaker 6 (27:52):
It's most I mean, you know, Europeans come over here,
they say, oh my goodness, the portions are so huge.
Speaker 2 (27:58):
And then you go to olive Garden you go, wow,
they're really huge. Maybe a lot of people were taking
doggy bags home when they realized we're wasting food or
I don't know.
Speaker 5 (28:06):
That's what they say.
Speaker 8 (28:06):
And they say, you know, it's not even like the
weight loss drugs, because you think that would be a
thing because people are eating less. But they say, no,
it's just they can't afford.
Speaker 2 (28:13):
You know, I guess if the police got if the
food got smaller, but so did the price.
Speaker 5 (28:18):
Yeah, I'm okay with that.
Speaker 6 (28:19):
That's fine, Yeah, exactly, all right, at least maday what
the newspapers.
Speaker 4 (28:22):
We appreciate that.
Speaker 1 (28:24):
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,
and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday,
seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com. The
iHeartRadio app tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You
can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and
(28:44):
always on the Bloomberg terminal
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg
Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern
on Apple car Play or Android Auto with the Bloomberg
Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts,
(00:25):
or watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 2 (00:27):
Five hundred up fifteen percent. Nastak Composite up nineteen percent
year to date. Every year we have the naysayers, Oh,
next year is just can't live up to it, can't
live up to it. Let's let's find out what our
next guest thinks about all of this. And our next
guest is here in studio with us, Alicia Levine, head
of investment strategy at BNY Wealth. Alicia isn't going to
(00:47):
be I mean, can twenty twenty six live up to
the numbers of twenty twenty five?
Speaker 3 (00:53):
So we think yes, but we think it's a non
linear year this year and the way that was nonlinear
twenty five. Ultimately a year ago, we had a sixty
six hundred price target on the S and P and
we're ending more.
Speaker 4 (01:08):
Or less here. We moved our target up.
Speaker 3 (01:10):
You know, mad year as the market's recovered from you know,
peak Terra funcertainty. We're looking for seventy six hundred next year.
We just don't think it's linear. We are looking for
thirteen percent earnings growth, margins are expanding. In the end,
like there'll be policy noise, you know, there'll be issues
with maybe the dollar or with bond markets as Japan
is I see, But ultimately, you know.
Speaker 4 (01:32):
The fundamentals are the fundamentals.
Speaker 3 (01:33):
And every year the Pannicans tell you why this is
the year that it's all going to fall apart. And
what we've learned is corporate America is amazingly resilient. Think
of the shocks that have come in the last five years,
and we've another thing that's happened is earnings have moved
higher and margins have moved higher.
Speaker 5 (01:50):
Good point.
Speaker 2 (01:51):
So yeah, But I mean my question then becomes, what
about the job market, Because I mean, the pandemic was
a once in a lifetime sort of thing. So if
you take that out of the picture, on unemployment hasn't
been this high in years. If that, if the market
really starts to crack, so does that become the big
the big problem for.
Speaker 3 (02:08):
So I think this shue really is the labor market here,
and I think it's good that the Fed is cutting
and it's good that they've restarted the cycle over the summer.
I think Christopher Waller was really frankly far ahead on this,
seeing the cracks in the labor market earlier then the
official data was telling us that's the risk here. What
you're going to have though, in the first part of
(02:28):
the year is one hundred and sixty billion dollars coming
back to households through the tax code, so they'll be
immediate fiscal stimulus. And on top of that, you have
about two hundred billion coming towards the corporate sector for
capex and investing. And when corporates are raising cap x,
you don't get lower unemployed. You don't get lower employment, right,
(02:51):
so you sustain employment when there is capex. I think
this quarter is probably the worst quarter of the year.
It's probably we're feeling the slow down. Certainly the six
week shutdown was not helpful. Some of that growth that
we miss is going to come back in the first
quarter of next year. Some of it's gone forever. We're
feeling the effects of that this quarter. So this massive
(03:12):
fiscal stimulus coming in the first half of the year,
and the Feds in a cutting sente.
Speaker 6 (03:16):
Well, I'm sem Alexis. Alicia is on my starting five
of the all American over educated team. Here we go,
undergraduate from Brown. I just okay, that's fine. Masters and
a doctorate from Chicago. Can we stop in philosophy?
Speaker 5 (03:30):
And we stop?
Speaker 6 (03:31):
Then a postdoc from Stanford, and let's do another post
doc from Harvard. I mean enough already, I mean, come on,
get to work, Alicia. It's unbelievab. Every time I read this,
I'm like, read enough already, Alicia. We had some really
good earnings from corporate America this year. I mean the
second quarter, third quarter earnings have been really good. Are
they enough to support this market going forward?
Speaker 3 (03:51):
They're definitely enough to support the market. So again, let's
go back twelve months ago. The market is trading at
twenty one point six times earnings, and the pans are saying,
there's no way the market's moving higher because you know,
the SMP is overvalued.
Speaker 4 (04:06):
We've never been this high.
Speaker 3 (04:08):
We haven't been this high since twenty twenty one, and
then before that it's two thousand, right, so then you
get the bubble talk.
Speaker 4 (04:14):
So what happened this year?
Speaker 3 (04:15):
Earnings came in at thirteen and a half percent, beating
estimates by about six percent overall, driving the markets higher.
And so the market's up fifteen sixteen percent. Alexis, as
you said, on the back of earnings, because the multiple
is only responsible for about fifteen or twenty percent of
the S and P price moving up this year.
Speaker 4 (04:33):
So next year you need those earnings.
Speaker 3 (04:35):
Like, if you don't have earnings, you have a problem
in the market because the multiple is high. But as
long as that comes through, you know the market can
move higher. Here But again, like are you are you
moving to a place where this supports for appreciation are narrowing?
And probably that's the case. We can't see multiples moving
much higher from here.
Speaker 2 (04:54):
What about I just want to talk about oil because
it's just fascinating to me what's been going on with
oil and how you see that playing into the landscape
or opportunities or lack thereof in the new year.
Speaker 5 (05:06):
Because the world is.
Speaker 2 (05:07):
A wash in oil and the smart money is betting
on crude oil remaining in the mid fifties, you know,
for most, if not all, next year.
Speaker 3 (05:15):
Look, I mean that part of the Trump administration's plan
was to get oil prices down. You see agreements with
Saudi they're pumping, and so that is part of the
plan to bring inflation down. And once of course oil
prices are lower, the disinflation filters through everything in inflation
readings and inflation overall in the economy. So we do
(05:37):
think all oil prices probably are moving lower here. You know,
if there is any kind of deal with Ukukraine and Russia.
And I know a lot of people have lost a
lot of sleep over whether or not this can happen,
but if there's a Russia Ukraine deal, then you bring
Russian oil back onto the market, So you're going to have,
you know, a flood of supply. And so we think
(06:00):
that oil prices are probably tame, whether it's fifty or lower.
You know, we're not experts in oil pricing, but you know,
supply demands, there'll be a lot of supply.
Speaker 6 (06:09):
Alicia, we've had some very nice returns in the US
stock markets, but boy, if you look at EMA, I mean,
twenty thirty fifty gains its credit on a currency adjusted basis.
Speaker 4 (06:18):
It's infamble.
Speaker 6 (06:19):
What do you think about the US non US allocation
for twenty six.
Speaker 4 (06:23):
So it's a great question.
Speaker 3 (06:25):
The dollar dropped ten percent in the first quarter, yep, okay,
and that's when rest of world outperformed massively.
Speaker 4 (06:32):
Since and since July first, the dollar has actually gone nowhere.
Speaker 3 (06:36):
It's in that stable it's that stable Dixie range really
for the last six months. So I think the question
for and as a result, by the way, the S
and P is outperformed rest of world by about five
percent since April first, So since the tariff shock and
the recovery and tech driving the growth out of the
(06:56):
lows and then the rest of the market taking over.
Since September, the SMP is outperform rest of world since
that time. But on an annual basis, absolutely the SMP
is farleg okay. So what do we do for next year?
I think the answer is the dollar, Like what is
your view on the dollar? If you think the dollar
moves a couple of percentage points lower, then this possible.
(07:17):
Rest of world up performs, but you're not going to
see a twenty to thirty percent outperformance as you saw
this year. The steper year curve is interesting because that
is global and financials are in every index, so Japan,
Europe and emerging markets financials are massively part of the indussy.
So the steeper Yell curve also could move markets higher.
(07:37):
And our client base, we're overweight US, that's our client base,
and they believe in US exceptionalism. But we have a
healthy allocation to rest of world, and we just raised
actually our allocation in emerging markets equity end debt.
Speaker 4 (07:49):
All right, yeah, all right?
Speaker 2 (07:51):
What about commodities? I'm thinking precious metals. So is it
going to be another like standout year here? Are they
going to finally take a breather?
Speaker 3 (07:57):
Unlikely to be the kind of view we had this year.
I think silver is something of a catch up trade
hasn't moved this way in the last twenty five thirty years.
I think on gold, it's very interesting. There's a new
factor here because it's no longer sort of gauging fiat
currency and whether central banks are too liquid or not.
It's really a central bank trade now because when the
(08:19):
US put sanctions on the Russian Central Bank, that was it.
Every every rogue nation or like soon to be rogue
nations started buying gold, and so again supply and demand
now there is a massive demand for gold assets, and
so we do think gold can move higher into next year.
Speaker 4 (08:36):
That's not the same move as we.
Speaker 3 (08:37):
See like, you can't you can't have the parabola every year.
Speaker 5 (08:40):
Yep.
Speaker 6 (08:41):
The Fed seems to be in a cutting mode here.
How important is that to your backdrop here?
Speaker 3 (08:45):
Hugely, hugely, hugely like the biggest like you know what,
what's the nightmare?
Speaker 4 (08:50):
The nightmare is you know that the FED wakes up.
Speaker 3 (08:54):
We have, you know, massive growth and inflation's over four percent,
and the Fed pivots pivs to a hiking cycle. So
a cutting or a waiting is fine for this market.
The hiking would not be fine. That is not in
any scenario we have. But clearly that is the lynchpin
to the risk of the market here.
Speaker 2 (09:15):
But that would mean inflation would have to really take
a leg up right, And so far the numbers, if
you believe them, don't seem to be pointing in that they're.
Speaker 3 (09:24):
Calling for inflation the second half of the year to
be much lower than it is now. You're cycling the
tariff issues. You're going to be done with that by
May June. It's going to move lower. And actually the
recent CPI, I know that there have been some issues
with OER and putting a zero in for the inflation
month over month, but Ultimately, I think the move was
too large on the CPI for it to be only
(09:44):
a data issue. There was softness all over there, and
actually housing costs and rental costs have been moving lower
for the last twelve months, so maybe there's some rebound,
but there is some disinflation in the system, and you're
going to lap the tariff issues by the spring.
Speaker 5 (09:59):
We should thank you so much for joining us.
Speaker 4 (10:01):
Really appreciate it.
Speaker 6 (10:01):
Alisia Levine, She's had an investment strategy at BNY Malthon.
We appreciate her coming in to our Bloomberg and Act
proper studio. Stay with us or from Bloomberg Surveillance coming
up after.
Speaker 1 (10:11):
This, you're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us
Live weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen
on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app,
or watch us Live on YouTube.
Speaker 6 (10:33):
A lot of economic data this week, the Ego Go function.
I was on that all the time.
Speaker 2 (10:37):
Yeah, thanks to the government shutdown, we're trying to play catch.
Speaker 6 (10:39):
Up, trying to play catch up here, So let's get
a little bit of a review here and what we
can think about going forward with this economy in twenty
twenty six, we can do that with our friend windin
chief economists at the Bank of Nasau. When we got
labor market data, we got some inflation data. What did
you take away from some of the government data this week?
Speaker 5 (10:55):
First of all, thanks guys for having me. It's always
a pleasure to be here. Look, there's some murmuring about, hey,
you know, there's some of this data maybe kind of sketchy.
It's incomplete, but you know, you can quibble about all
you want, maybe take here or take there. But really
the underlying signal through all its noises that the labor
market is cracking and inflation is coming now. So to me,
that sets up fed easy next year, more than what
(11:18):
the market's pricing in. I would just note the last
seven months starting in May, we've only added about one
hundred and twenty thousand jobs total seven months. The sevenths
before that was one point two million. If you're adding
Chair Powell's assertion that monthly games are overstayed by sixty k,
then we're talking about you know, minus three hundred hundred
(11:38):
negative negative, So you know, it's and all the other
sort of current adp Ravellio all the other I think
data really supports that. So, yes, you can quibble about
the reliability to data, but I think it's a signals
very clear.
Speaker 2 (11:51):
So the market is seems to be banking on two
interest rate cuts next year from the Fed. Powell was
a bit conservative and seem to mess signal one, where
are you at and all of that.
Speaker 5 (12:01):
Yeah, so I think the market is understating that the
capacity to the Fed at the ease. Again, I'm still
more worried about the labor market than I think than
many in the market. If you look at your WRPA,
your pages, it's I think the odds with January cut
are only twenty five percent, which I think is pretty
I'd say right now, I'd say it's a coin flip
depending and then with the deciding factor being the January
(12:23):
I'm sorry, the December jobs that comes out in early January.
So we got another jobs report, another CPI report, to
retail sales report that's going to kind of, I think,
inform the Fed. But really the trend is there. The
labor market is cracking. To Leasa's point, there's so many
companies that are starting to talk about in week outlooks
for sales consumers cutting back. I mean that's going to happen.
If the labor markets cracking.
Speaker 6 (12:44):
Four point six percent unemployment rate, that's still pretty good
in my mind.
Speaker 5 (12:48):
But what's underneath that that? Yeah, so I think you
have to see where we where we came from. Remember
we bottom at three point four percent and twenty twenty three.
You know, this whole debate about whether the Psalm rule
is still in impact because we're pretty much double what
the salmon would say in terms of recession. But now
I think most people's base cases that we have no
recession next year, and I have to I'm on board
with that, but I do think we have some slow
(13:09):
in growth. To me, the big issue for next year
is can the AI investment boom offset what I think
is coming a significant slow down consumer spending. That's the
to me, a million dollar question. I think it will
help offset it, but I don't think it can totally
overwhelm this. You know, the consumption consumption is seventy percent
(13:29):
of the US economy fixed as the investment is about
twenty percent. So it's really it's hard for us just
investment boom to really offset a big consumer slow down.
Speaker 2 (13:38):
So the labor market is your biggest concern heading into
the new year. How concerned are you that we might
slip into a recession?
Speaker 5 (13:45):
Yeah, so, you know again, I think that's a risk.
I think the market ods of a recession something like
twenty five to thirty percent odds. I think that's probably
are maybe a little bit high. I do think that
there is enough momentum in the US economy kind of
keep going. I just look for slow down a couple nothing,
A few rate cuts from the Fed can't, can't sort
(14:05):
of help. I'm looking for at least three, maybe four
cuts next year. The dot posity, as you point out
at one, which is to me just kind of silly.
We know inflation is coming down, a lot of the
tariff suff's gonna the year over year stuff will break
kind of fall off the base effect. We know the
labor markets cracking, so the you know again, you can
always kind of poke holes at what the Fed is saying.
(14:27):
But they're looking for four point four percent unemployment in
twenty twenty six, four point two percent in twenty twenty seven.
I'm not sure how that happens unless we get out
a sleration.
Speaker 1 (14:37):
Help.
Speaker 5 (14:38):
Yeah, we need some helping. Fed again, nothing the fedt
it's panic time, I think, but I think they should
be cutting sort of front loading these cuts. How's the
consumer doing at there? Well, at least it gave me
sale hands. I mean I've been piping hearings over and over. Yes,
you no guidance for next year? Is the concerns consumers
coming cutting back? I'm sure you've seen all the statistics
that you know, the bulk of retail, the consumption in
(15:00):
taste is being driven like sort of the high twenty percent,
it's sort of income bracket, whereas something like sixty seventy
percent of the economy consumers, the lower income consumers, are struggling.
We know, we know that. That's why we're talking about affordability.
You know, for us here in this room and our
listeners probably we're feeling probably pretty okay. Really form the
(15:21):
majority of Americas, I think they're struggling with the inflation.
Now we're getting these layoffs, you know, tepid job growth.
So it's a struggle. It's that whole K shaped column
that we talked about. And I have this debate, is
that upward K enough to upset the downward part of
the K. And you know that's to me a big
question for next year.
Speaker 2 (15:41):
So then where do you see I guess, strengthen the
economy next year. I mean, if it's not going to
be the consumer, if it's not going to be the
job market, where do we see sort of what become?
Because the consumer has been the pillar of this economy
for so long, right who sort of who are what
to provide? It's a foundation, if you will, for the economy.
Speaker 5 (16:02):
Yeah, so you look, you go back to econ one
on one, you got C plus idles, G plus net exports,
so consumer se you know, cutting back G in terms
of government spanding, cutting back We've given out some tax
cuts obviously under the Big Beautiful bill, but actual government
spending is going to be I think a net negative
next year. Net exports. That's a tough one given that,
you know, with this ongoing terraff force. So it's really
(16:23):
up to investment. And again I keep pointing to AI
that's been a big driver why a headline growth in
the US has been so strong. It's it's, uh, you know,
all this investment in energy chip production, all that can
I sustain? Is that enough to offset again seven percent
of the economy? Again, I I don't think it can
totally offset, but it'll kind of cushion the blow. And
(16:44):
again the FED starts cutting rates, we get some maybe
life in the housing sector which.
Speaker 2 (16:48):
Would be under pressure. Yeah, you know what's speaking of
which what is your outlook for the housing?
Speaker 5 (16:52):
Yeah, so we had some nice drop in mortgage rates,
you know, as the FED was cutting, but now they've
been kind of sideways and you look at some of
the housing they well, unfortunate we haven't had a lot
of the housing data because the shutdown, it starts trickle out.
But there seems to be some sort of modest recovery underway.
But again, I think the important thing and this is
I think what the FED is puzzling with us. The
(17:13):
FED controls a short end, what's going off the long end,
and long end has kind of stayed elevated, and that
we need to get the long end down to get
mortgage rates down. And that's we can spend an hour
or two talking about that.
Speaker 6 (17:22):
All right, Wenn, thank you so much for joining us.
Speaker 5 (17:24):
Really appreciate it.
Speaker 6 (17:25):
Whinin chief Econmers at the Bank of Nassault stay with
us or from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.
Speaker 1 (17:39):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live
weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern. Listen on
Applecarplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app, or
watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 2 (17:52):
Let's get a reality check now with Katie Kaminski, chief
research strategist at Alpha Simplex. Katie, thanks for being with us.
What's the I guess if you had a name the
top three trends to look for in stocks in twenty
twenty six, tick through those for us, what would they be?
Speaker 7 (18:08):
Well, I'd say, I mean, I think the AI trend
is the one that we've been following, but we have
seen some broadening in the last six weeks or so,
so I think it's going to be about finding the
winners and losers of this theme. And also we've seen
a lot of interesting action outside the United States, excluding
of course China. So I think for equities it's definitely
(18:31):
still a very positive signal. But we have seen a
lot of uncertainty recently, just given the range of possible
outcomes for next year, and I think we're kind of
watching this idea of extreme market environments for next year,
either really good or really challenging, depending on how things unfold.
Speaker 6 (18:50):
So we've got the Fed Katie cutting interest rates. I
guess the market's discounting maybe a couple more rate cuts
in twenty twenty six. How does that kind of influence
kind of the trend theory for fixed income in twenty
twenty six.
Speaker 7 (19:07):
This is actually something that I've been thinking a lot about,
and the reason is we've actually seen yields rising more recently.
I mean, look at today, You've seen also yields rising
globally across different economies such as Australia, Japan, and so
I think what's been interesting is the trend signals and
fixed income have actually moved to short views. So that
(19:30):
seems a little at odds with this idea that Fed
is cutting rates. So I think what we worry about
is that you may have a lower short term rate,
but that longer term rates may stay a little higher
than what a lot of investors are hoping for for
next year, especially given the potential for inflation. But of
(19:51):
course this week we saw a good inflation number, we
see energies down, So that leaves us kind of scratching
our heads a little bit about what will happen with
the fixed income markets now that signals are very muted
and even short internationally.
Speaker 2 (20:07):
Let's bounce over to commodities, because gee, what a year
it's been for the metals, right, yeah, I mean commodity markets.
Investors have been loving up their metals, and we're not
just talking about gold, silver, along for the ride, copper
as well, even though inflation is stabilizing, I guess if
you're to believe the latest numbers that we've gotten, So
(20:28):
what's the outlook for twenty twenty six, especially if inflation
doesn't really make a lot of noise for the market.
Speaker 7 (20:35):
Well, this is a really interesting point because we've been
watching these metals trends very closely and they have been
extraordinary this year. And what is really confusing from an
inflation perspective is that, you know, you see things that
are really important, like energies that are down quite a
bit this year, but you see the metal block that
(20:57):
has moved counter to that particular theme, and so you
have to start asking, like, what does this mean fundamentally?
Is this something that could be a catalyst or is
this something that's just out of sync with sort of
the inflation narrative altogether. It is concerning, particularly with copper
and other base metals, because these are directly linked to
(21:18):
industry and to production, so that would be an input
to something that could impact inflation. I think there's just
offsetting forces and the energies and other areas that have
kind of made it less of an extreme.
Speaker 5 (21:31):
Impact, Katie.
Speaker 6 (21:33):
The US dollar sold off pretty sharply there in the
beginning of the year when we had all that uncertainty
about the tariff rollout in April. But since then, I
don't know, it's kind of stabilized, maybe come back a
little bit here, but I don't see any trend for
the US dollar other than I guess we're just sitting
here at this level. What do you think?
Speaker 4 (21:51):
So this is a good point. A lot of people
are forecasting a weaker dollar.
Speaker 6 (21:57):
Smilance coming out.
Speaker 7 (21:57):
Of great cuts, but we just haven't seen those moves
come to fruition yet. We do see a lot of
a lot of volatility or bouncing around against against different currencies.
I read there's a lot of lot of location from
seven to eight globally, and that is an address to
(22:19):
an easy narrative. I do think at some point, should
we get aggressive rate cuts, we should expect a weeker dollar,
but that is just not in the data yet.
Speaker 2 (22:30):
And what are your thoughts or what are you hearing
from clients with regards to possible moderate mild recession maybe
in the first half of twenty twenty six.
Speaker 7 (22:41):
I think, I mean, the timing of that is going
to be tricky. We do think that we are in
an environment with relatively extreme outcomes. Look at China, it's
in a completely different place Australia Japan that you know,
you may see swings which are extreme in both directions.
The challenge for an investors is to project that, yes,
(23:03):
guarantee there's going to be a recession.
Speaker 4 (23:05):
What you really need to think about is that.
Speaker 7 (23:07):
These sort of flux in market conditions can take a
long time. So maybe we could actually have strong enough
growth and we don't actually see any sort of reversion
or some of these concerning scenarios until a couple of
months from now. So I think it's hard to predict
timing on these type of events, so preparing for it
may not be the right choice.
Speaker 6 (23:28):
All right, Katie, thanks so much. We always appreciate getting
a few minutes of your time. Thank you so much, Katiekaminski.
She's a chief research strategist at Alpha Sinquick stay with
us or from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after.
Speaker 1 (23:38):
This, you're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us
live weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen
on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app,
or watch us live.
Speaker 6 (23:59):
On YouTube very well, maybe the highlight of the day.
He's MATEO and newspapers, Lisa, what do you got.
Speaker 4 (24:05):
For all Right?
Speaker 8 (24:05):
We got a big event on Netflix tonight. Do you
know this guys? Twenty eight year old YouTuber Jake Paul
is back in the ring again.
Speaker 4 (24:12):
Yes, yeah, I heard this is I got all.
Speaker 8 (24:14):
The ads on my on my Netflix maj So remember
the big Netflix fight against Mike Tyson, right, that was huge?
But now he's fighting a guy a little bit, you know.
Speaker 4 (24:23):
Bigger than he is.
Speaker 8 (24:24):
Okay, So it's former World Olympic champion Anthony Joshua. He's
different from fifty eight year old Tyson back then. This
guy's thirty six, okay, but he's six foot six. He's
five inches taller than Paul. He has nearly two decades
of boxing experience, twenty five wins by knockout, and he's
thirty pounds heavier than Paul.
Speaker 2 (24:43):
Is Paul going down?
Speaker 5 (24:44):
I don't know.
Speaker 4 (24:45):
I think he might be going down on this one.
But here's watching that.
Speaker 5 (24:49):
Oh, I saw him.
Speaker 8 (24:51):
I'm a boxing fan, you are, but I just want
to see him get his butt kicked.
Speaker 4 (24:55):
And can I say that? I'm sorry?
Speaker 5 (24:57):
Wow, I did not know that.
Speaker 8 (24:59):
But either way he's going to take home around one
hundred million dollars if you win loses.
Speaker 5 (25:03):
If he wins or loses, how much one hundred million? Wow?
Speaker 6 (25:07):
I think maybe I'll go in the guy there, Holy Netflix,
I mean just more sports on Netflix.
Speaker 4 (25:13):
It's more sports.
Speaker 8 (25:14):
And last time I watched, like, there were a couple glitches,
Like because so many Netflix as an audience of sixty
million households worldwide, it's a new brainer for Netflix to
run this thing.
Speaker 4 (25:27):
Yeah, but he draws the crowds like people love.
Speaker 8 (25:30):
This guy used to be a social media influencer right
October just twenty eight, you know, but then he found
this call for boxing, and you know what, Hey, maybe
he'll win. I don't know to watch, I guess a
curious to find out.
Speaker 5 (25:43):
Bring us to the report back Monday morning, ladies. Thank you,
I'm not watching exactly.
Speaker 4 (25:47):
I'll give you the recap.
Speaker 8 (25:48):
Okay, this is a worry for travelers right if you're
going through the holiday season. Experts are saying, be very
careful because scammers are taking advantage of it. They're posing
as airline agents and they're taking a lot of people's money.
So this is the FTC. They're calling it business imposter,
business and impersonator scams. And it happened. This is a
Bloomberg article. It happened to the journalist who wrote the article.
(26:10):
Oh so and I get a credit tell your story
because you're like, how could you fall for that?
Speaker 2 (26:14):
But she did, and she I almost did. I was
planning a trip from my family a year ago. They
get on the phone with you right away. They sound
really professional, they say, and ask all the right things.
And I was about to give my credit card information
and something said, this doesn't sound they call you?
Speaker 4 (26:29):
Did you call I called them?
Speaker 2 (26:30):
Because when you do the search right, yes, a Google
search or whatever search, the fake stuff comes up first
with an eight eight eight number that looked like it
was the airline's number, but it wasn't. So the big
takeaway go to the website of that, or use the
app of that.
Speaker 5 (26:44):
Airline. I learned that on tickets. I got scammed for
the Eagles.
Speaker 6 (26:48):
At this sphere, remember that, And the day off, I'm
about to hop on the go to the airport, and
I realized I don't have tickets. These tickets didn't arrive,
and that was expensive.
Speaker 5 (26:58):
So I learned that.
Speaker 6 (26:59):
My So now I just go you have to go right.
Speaker 5 (27:02):
To what the source? Yeah, and it's true.
Speaker 8 (27:04):
And she was saying, like she called the number and
the person picked up on the first ring, and she
was like, I shouldn't known.
Speaker 4 (27:11):
Because usually you're waiting forever to talk to someone air too.
Speaker 6 (27:14):
Exactly, all right, Olive Garden, be careful.
Speaker 8 (27:16):
Okay, So this is a sign of inflation are affecting
America's dining habits. So you have Olive Garden. Remember the
never Ending Possible, Right, that's the whole thing. Now, Olive
Garden's serving lighter portions and apparently it's working. People love it.
They're having trouble keeping up with demand. We're talking smaller
questions like thirteen to fifteen bucks. But this is something
they don't even market like, I have.
Speaker 4 (27:37):
Never heard of this.
Speaker 7 (27:38):
Lighter men.
Speaker 8 (27:39):
Yeah, you're used to like the never Ending Possible, but
it's working for them. About forty percent of Olive Garden
menus offer this portion in the most recent quarter. Another
twenty percent are added recently, so they say, you know what,
this is working, maybe we should keep going with this.
Speaker 6 (27:52):
It's most I mean, you know, Europeans come over here,
they say, oh my goodness, the portions are so huge.
Speaker 2 (27:58):
And then you go to olive Garden you go, wow,
they're really huge. Maybe a lot of people were taking
doggy bags home when they realized we're wasting food or
I don't know.
Speaker 5 (28:06):
That's what they say.
Speaker 8 (28:06):
And they say, you know, it's not even like the
weight loss drugs, because you think that would be a
thing because people are eating less. But they say, no,
it's just they can't afford.
Speaker 2 (28:13):
You know, I guess if the police got if the
food got smaller, but so did the price.
Speaker 5 (28:18):
Yeah, I'm okay with that.
Speaker 6 (28:19):
That's fine, Yeah, exactly, all right, at least maday what
the newspapers.
Speaker 4 (28:22):
We appreciate that.
Speaker 1 (28:24):
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,
and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday,
seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com. The
iHeartRadio app tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You
can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and
(28:44):
always on the Bloomberg terminal
Popular Podcasts
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Follow now to get the latest episodes of Dateline NBC completely free, or subscribe to Dateline Premium for ad-free listening and exclusive bonus content: DatelinePremium.com
Betrayal: Weekly
Betrayal Weekly is back for a brand new season. Every Thursday, Betrayal Weekly shares first-hand accounts of broken trust, shocking deceptions, and the trail of destruction they leave behind. Hosted by Andrea Gunning, this weekly ongoing series digs into real-life stories of betrayal and the aftermath. From stories of double lives to dark discoveries, these are cautionary tales and accounts of resilience against all odds. From the producers of the critically acclaimed Betrayal series, Betrayal Weekly drops new episodes every Thursday. Please join our Substack for additional exclusive content, curated book recommendations and community discussions. Sign up FREE by clicking this link Beyond Betrayal Substack. Join our community dedicated to truth, resilience and healing. Your voice matters! Be a part of our Betrayal journey on Substack. And make sure to check out Seasons 1-4 of Betrayal, along with Betrayal Weekly Season 1.