April 15, 2025 • 41 mins
Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.
Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyApril 15th, 2025
Featuring:
1) Constance Hunter, Chief Economist at EIU, talks about whether the US is staring down a financial crisis as President Trump negotiates trade deals with other countries. While stocks are getting a boost as President Trump floats a potential pause in auto tariffs, ongoing trade tensions and concerns remain about the impact of tariffs on the economy.
2) Christopher Maher, CEO of OceanFirst Bank, discusses how inflation and tariffs are affecting how he operates his business and how clients are responding to changing conditions. Investor sentiment toward the economy is the most negative in three decades, with fund managers expecting the global economy to weaken and planning to reduce exposure to US equities, which is causing increasing challenges for business operators.
3) Sebastien Page, head of Global Multi-Asset and Chair of the Asset Allocation Steering Committee at T. Rowe Price, talks about his new book and demonstrating leadership in a growing uncertain market. Markets are showing signs of consolidating as Trump’s tariff exemptions haved raised hopes there may be room for negotiations after the president’s reciprocal levies this month wiped $10 trillion off global equities and spurred a rout in Treasuries. At the same time, the US is pressing forward with plans to impose tariffs on semiconductor and pharmaceutical imports by initiating trade probes led by the Commerce Department.
4) Scott Stringer, Former NYC Comptroller & NYC Mayoral Candidate, joins as part of our NYC mayoral race coverage to discuss New York City, Mayor Eric Adams' leadership, city finances, congestion pricing, and other issues.
5) Lisa Mateo joins with the latest headlines in newspapers across the US, including a WSJ report on Netflix's market cap target and Business Insider's story on iPhone tricks to avoid increased costs.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg
Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern
on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.
Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch
(00:25):
us live on YouTube.
Speaker 2 (00:27):
Joining us Chief, where are we economists at?
Speaker 3 (00:30):
EIU Constance owner joins us After a good conversation last week,
it seems like three months as we last talked to you,
I think it was two cups of coffee.
Speaker 4 (00:39):
It's I mean, that is it only Tuesday?
Speaker 2 (00:42):
Yeah?
Speaker 3 (00:42):
On a day to day basis, how do you sustain
your analysis?
Speaker 4 (00:47):
So, as Lisa was giving her excellent rundown, I was
thinking about how we spent all of yesterday looking at
the pharma codes.
Speaker 5 (00:55):
So there's two codes.
Speaker 4 (00:56):
There's the codes that start with the number thirty that
are all sort of the finalized goods.
Speaker 5 (01:01):
There's the codes that start with the.
Speaker 4 (01:03):
Number twenty nine, and those are all the goods that
the intermediate goods that go into pharma. And of course
Trump is threatening these pharma tariffs, and we're trying to
get ahead of this by like really just ingesting all
the codes, thinking about what the impacts would be.
Speaker 3 (01:19):
The bottom line is he may screw up our feed
of antibiotic materials.
Speaker 6 (01:24):
That's what we're talking about.
Speaker 4 (01:26):
Yes, I mean when you put tariffs on like this
and we basically embargoed China, there is not going to
be any more supply of many, many goods from China. Right,
we do that to pharmaceuticals. It's a very dangerous game
to play in an ad hoc way.
Speaker 7 (01:40):
So you put all this stuff in a blender, and
I don't know what goes in this blender anymore, But
what does it do to your economic forecast?
Speaker 6 (01:48):
Do you even? I guess you have to keep so.
Speaker 4 (01:51):
Obviously we keep analyzing and expanding our modalities for analyzing
what the weighted average tarif rate is. But what we
have and this is this is almost stupidly simple. But
what we have done is we've looked at the uncertainty
index that Baker and Bloom put out from Stanford. Now,
one of the bases of that index is actually the
(02:12):
EIU database are written works over the last thirty years.
Speaker 5 (02:16):
That's one component.
Speaker 4 (02:17):
Another component is the change in tax code that's anticipated
over the next two years. Obviously, we have the TCJA
coming up that leads to a lot of uncertainty and
then the dispersion of economic forecasts. And when you use
this index, you can see that it is correlated with recessions.
Speaker 5 (02:35):
You know that those recessions weren't we didn't we were.
Speaker 4 (02:38):
They were called after the fact as NBER does, and
probably that data ended up being revised down. So we
know that this forecasts and corresponds with a reduction in capex,
a reduction in consumer spending, and of course those two
things together mean lower employment growth eventually declines in employment.
Speaker 3 (02:58):
Okay, where are you on jobs? The elasticity of all
of these emotions, crisis. Whatever our listeners and viewers think,
the bottom line is, I'm sorry, if I'm elected free beer.
Speaker 2 (03:10):
It comes back to jobs, right.
Speaker 3 (03:11):
Yeah, When to claims pop or other series, the constance
hunter looks at yeah.
Speaker 4 (03:17):
And I mean, we're expecting somewhat softer jobs in the
in the April report, but that's going to be a
really critical factor, I think, and when the Fed can
actually go ahead and move rates, right, so as long
as jobs are holding in there, and of course we
know it's at best a coincidence indicator, probably a lagging
indicator in many instances, but they are still going to
(03:39):
wait to see some weakness. So we're going to look
at things like ours worked. We're going to look at
the diffusion index. We're going to look at the composition
of what types of jobs are being created, because state
and local governments are probably going to pull back on
some of the hiring they've done. They did made up
makeup hiring over the last four years since the pandemic
because they were under hiring in all the years following
(03:59):
the globalinantle crisis.
Speaker 6 (04:02):
Do you have a recession in your forecast?
Speaker 5 (04:04):
We do have a recession in our forecast.
Speaker 6 (04:05):
And how deep it is not so.
Speaker 4 (04:08):
It is it is concentrated in the second and third quarters.
We do think the Fed ax. We think the FED
goes four times this year. But it really just depends
on if we can dampen down some of this uncertainty,
if they could, if they could come out and be
a little more clear in the way they.
Speaker 3 (04:24):
Can economist, I mean, whatever anybody's political persuasions, Paul am
I right, we're hanging headline to headline.
Speaker 4 (04:34):
Yes, nobody in companies can't plan, nobody does capex in
this environment.
Speaker 3 (04:38):
Okay, Lisa to cut to the chase. China said we
want Seattle. Boeing does a ton of work with Cathay
Pacific in the rest and now they're saying we don't
even want the parts from Bowing. And I keep getting
notes from smart people saying it's a whole supply chain thing.
Speaker 4 (04:55):
Yeah, and the supply chain is so integrated across borders
as well, right, I mean things.
Speaker 3 (05:00):
We can't but we can't do manufacturing your shop ei
U owns saying analysis, what do you look at?
Speaker 4 (05:08):
So we're looking at all the intermediate goods, right, So
if you think about even manufacturing in the US, even
the manufacturing we do here takes imported parts and puts
that into the final goods.
Speaker 3 (05:19):
Right.
Speaker 4 (05:19):
So this is this is like the policies of Juan
Peron in Argentina in nineteen forty five when he said, well,
we're just going to make everything here in Argentina, Like
if we keep going down this road, it does not end.
Speaker 2 (05:32):
Well, that's the first time I've heard that. That's brilliant, man.
Speaker 3 (05:35):
I saw Anne Marie in Buenos airesis last night. Yeah,
she had the red ball main thing guy, and I
think she looked like a Vina Yep. Yeah, you know,
I was looking at it's it's a Vina and she's
a pro.
Speaker 2 (05:47):
She's very Madonna.
Speaker 6 (05:48):
What do we do here with our labor market?
Speaker 8 (05:50):
Here?
Speaker 7 (05:51):
Do you fear that this were essentially a fully employed
labor market with low four percent unemployment?
Speaker 6 (05:57):
Where do you think that goes? Oh?
Speaker 5 (05:58):
I think it has to go higher.
Speaker 4 (06:00):
And we have a pretty I would say tempered forecast
for the end of this year. If I were going
to guess, the risk is to the downside, right, So
we have it going up to four point six, I
think four point eight, and then you get into when
does it become nonlinear?
Speaker 3 (06:15):
Right?
Speaker 4 (06:15):
When does it go from four point eight up to
five point five?
Speaker 9 (06:19):
Right?
Speaker 5 (06:19):
And how quickly does that move happen?
Speaker 4 (06:22):
Because that's what happens if you really get into a
vicious circle.
Speaker 3 (06:25):
You're the first one I want to finish up with this.
You're the first one on air to bring up what
I'm focused on. And folks, this goes back to my
major in college and all that you know a long
time ago, and that is the pharmaceuticals. And I think
people are like, oh, one, I can't spell it and
it's too complicated, But the answer.
Speaker 2 (06:46):
Is all of those pills we give our.
Speaker 3 (06:49):
Family members, particularly our kids when they're sick, have materials
from China. That's an accurate statement, right.
Speaker 4 (06:56):
And think of all the people we have an aging population.
Think of know a person over the age of sixty
that doesn't take at least one prescription a day.
Speaker 5 (07:03):
Very few.
Speaker 2 (07:04):
I've never confronted that. I mean, I mean, if I
look at this concert, I.
Speaker 4 (07:10):
Put myself, I'm not over sixty, but I still I'm
at the age where I'm taking one medicine a day
at least you and Michael Backer.
Speaker 3 (07:16):
But the bottom line constants Hunter is and I'm suggesting
here maybe exaggerating this pharmaceutical debate, it's way more than
just another press release or overlaw office statements.
Speaker 4 (07:30):
Absolutely, it's really really significant. And when you combine that
with the fact that we withdrew from who that we're
gutting HH staff, it's really has significant ramifications.
Speaker 5 (07:45):
Remember Robert Gordon.
Speaker 4 (07:46):
One of the things Rise and Fall of American growth,
he cites five things that contributed to productivity of the
early nineteen hundreds of mid nineteen hundreds, and Nacillan is
one of them. Why Because medicine help people get sick.
I mean, get sick, get recover from being sick faster.
It means fewer people die, and that improves a prop.
Speaker 3 (08:07):
Back seeing which I remember the pin drops. Yep, consence,
Thank you so much. Constance Hunter with EIU Here.
Speaker 1 (08:18):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live
weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern. Listen on
Applecarplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app, or
watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 3 (08:30):
It's a week A banker names JP Morgan over in
the investment side, Golden sacks JP Morgan Equity Trading ginormous
City Group today two hundred and twenty nine thousand employees.
Speaker 2 (08:42):
How about Paul published on the.
Speaker 3 (08:43):
Bloomberg A bank with nine hundred and fifty one employees.
Speaker 2 (08:49):
Towns River, New Jersey, Jersey Shore.
Speaker 3 (08:51):
There we are, Jersey Shore joining us now from Ocean
First Financial. I'm loving that we're doing this. Nobody told
me that we're doing this.
Speaker 2 (08:58):
This is great.
Speaker 3 (08:59):
Christopher joins us from Ocean First Financial. It's back I
guess to nineteen oh two, is point pleasant?
Speaker 2 (09:06):
That's right?
Speaker 3 (09:07):
Yeah, that's right, Okay, yeah, this is great. We are
so mental about talking about these ginormous banks. Just simply
in this modern age, how do you compete with super
regionals in the ginormous.
Speaker 8 (09:21):
Well, you know, it all comes down to your relationship
with your customers. So you know, we were founded in
nineteen oh two is the Point Pleasant Building and Loan
Association of Point Pleasant Beach, so at the Bailey Building
and Loan right over the year's Commercial Bank Diversified. We
operate throughout the Northeast and what we've found is customers
really value that ability to have a conversation with a
(09:42):
bank or a trusted partner, someone who's going to deliver.
And you're going to compete on that, on doing what
you promised you're going to do, doing it quickly and effectively.
And if you do that, you're going to do just fine.
Speaker 7 (09:52):
Chris, what's a typical corporate customer for your bank? What
are they like and what are they telling you these days?
Speaker 8 (09:57):
So you know, most of our clients are small of
family owned businesses. They range, We cover a geography between
DC and Boston. All sorts could be manufacturing, logistics services companies.
And what they're telling us today is certainly there's a
level of apprehension given all the volatility, but they're not
overly concerned. You know, many of these folks took a
(10:18):
master class in supply chain during the pandemic, so they've
got you know, secondary and tertiary suppliers, they've got different
warehouse capabilities. They are concerned, and we're concerned about how
long the volatility continues, but generally they're weathering it pretty well.
Speaker 7 (10:34):
I mean, that's something that Tom has talked about a lot,
which is corporations adapt and maybe that's kind of what
you're seeing here. Are they putting projects on hold?
Speaker 6 (10:46):
Are they waiting?
Speaker 7 (10:47):
We've heard that from some of the larger companies out
there that the larger banks. We've heard from even more
Morgan standing seeing other clients are just saying just let.
Speaker 6 (10:53):
Us wait a little bit. Are you seeing that at
the local level.
Speaker 8 (10:56):
Yeah, Paul, some are so. I'll use an example. We
have a plastic manufacturer that was in the process of
doing a significant expansion, buying some equipment, some of which
was from Germany, someone was from China. The cost of
the tariffs on that equipment would have raised the cost
of their project. I think in the range of six
hundred thousand dollars. They're likely going to continue with the
project at some point, but it doesn't make sense to
(11:18):
just forge forward and pay those tariffs. They're going to
wait and see. And if this is a short term thing,
I don't think it's going to upset much. But the
longer this goes on, the concern builds.
Speaker 3 (11:27):
I'm fascinated by the day to day grind of a
very small bank versus the major. Now on your website,
you hired Zachary Hauser in northern Virginia. He's a Minnesota
Vikings fan, which is I don't get.
Speaker 2 (11:40):
It, but there it is.
Speaker 3 (11:43):
Why would Zachary Hauser leave Bank of America, Wells Fargo,
and the iconic Buffalo M and T Bank to join
an itty bitty bank in Times River.
Speaker 8 (11:54):
Yeah. So, Look, we built a following, and I think
professionals from around our industry understand that the number one
thing that's important to them is their ability to serve
their clients. And although we're on the smaller side, you know,
it's just about fourteen billion dollars of assets, we're a
top one hundred US bank. That's both wonderful and terrible. Right,
we should have more banks in this country, but that
(12:15):
gives us the scale to be able to support very
large businesses.
Speaker 2 (12:20):
I mean, just this just came up. Paul just sent
me an email.
Speaker 3 (12:23):
Paul, I think a refine through ocean first shot. I
think it says it, Sure, you can take your vest, but.
Speaker 6 (12:30):
Down there exactly, you know, check it out. We'll find
these guys. So, Chris, you mentioned you know, maybe we
need more banks.
Speaker 7 (12:37):
I think what a lot of people came to understand
when we saw the regional bank crisis of several years.
Speaker 6 (12:41):
Ago with SVB is Boyd.
Speaker 7 (12:43):
We have five thousand regional banks around the country. No
other country has that. Do we consolidate the regional bank business?
Speaker 6 (12:51):
How do you think about that?
Speaker 8 (12:52):
Well, certainly there's a need for efficiencies and consolidation. I
think we'll see some of that. But on the other hand,
you know, we provide a niche regional banks in general,
where we're the main street lenders. So when you think
about these family owned, privately held businesses, the majority of
credit to that sector comes from regional banks like US
between ten billion and one hundred billion dollars in deposits.
(13:12):
If you think back to COVID, we were the industry
that jumped in and handled the PPP out of the gate.
We were faster than the big banks. We made early
commitments to doing it, and in our case, you know,
we were out. We're one of the first lenders in
the business getting dollars on the street to our clients.
So we do need that kind of layer of banks
that are much more responsive to their customers.
Speaker 2 (13:33):
Do you read Jamie Diamond's annual letter?
Speaker 8 (13:34):
Absolutely?
Speaker 3 (13:36):
What do you take from mister Diamond's letter that you
can apply to nine hundred and fifty one employees out
of Thymes River.
Speaker 8 (13:42):
There's a lot of commonality. So when you think about
the principles that Jamie runs by and we believe the
same thing. You want to have a fortress balance sheet.
You know, look, we don't want a recession, but we're
prepared for a recession. If you're running a bank, you
better expect that one could happen. I think the discipline
about doing the right thing by your customers, by your employees.
Probably my favorite story is the outsourcing of their security
(14:04):
and then the reinsourcing of their security, because at the
end of the day, you want to make sure that
your people are connected to the customers.
Speaker 6 (14:11):
Private equity, I mean private credit. How is that is
that a.
Speaker 7 (14:14):
Competitor to you in your market, because we've heard about
it that they're competing with the JP Morgans of the
world and taking business from them or maybe substituting for them.
Speaker 6 (14:23):
Are you seeing in the smaller markets?
Speaker 8 (14:25):
Absolutely, private credit as a competitor, But interestingly they're also
becoming a big client of ours. So in many cases
we are doing more and more business with private credit
where we're lending along with them, coming into join credit
facilities or lending to them either on a deal by
deal basis and note on note finance or lending to
the fund itself. So I think it's the fastest growth
(14:46):
area for US.
Speaker 3 (14:48):
I gotta ask, I mean, are you I mean, I
don't mean to be rude, but I'm going to be rude.
Are you guys helping out Jon bon Jovi with a
soul kitchen?
Speaker 8 (14:57):
Times Are of New Jersey, as a matter of fact,
did a joint project with jompon Jovi in the Soul kitchen.
We built out a new facility a couple of years back.
We were one of four donors that helped make that possible.
The Ocean First Foundation is made over fifty million dollars
worth of grants in our communities and that was one
of our special grants a number of years ago.
Speaker 2 (15:15):
Did he sing a concerts for your mister Ward meeting.
Speaker 8 (15:18):
We didn't get a concert, but he was a very
gracious man.
Speaker 3 (15:20):
So Chris Mayor, thank you so much. Greatly appreciate it.
With the Ocean First team.
Speaker 1 (15:26):
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto
with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live
on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, just
say Alexa Play. Bloomberg eleven thirty said this before.
Speaker 3 (15:45):
That there's like four hundred and twenty two books out
on asset allocation and diversification. In the single read for
adults both Global Wall Street and people engaged in the
debate is from Sebastian Page. His day job as a
tea rope. His night job is to sit in the
Orioles dugout. He writes it, I don't like an iPad
or whatever, and we celebrate today. His new book is
(16:10):
that is out and it's a shift. It's called The
Psychology of Leadership. Sebastian Page joins us right now come on,
you're doing a Malcolm Gladwell thing here.
Speaker 2 (16:19):
Why are we doing this? Why are we doing this?
Psychology of leadership? Did cal rip Can put you up
to this?
Speaker 9 (16:26):
Tom, that's a great compliment. I think Malcolm Gladwell is
a great writer. And by the way, Tom, I don't
write on iPads. That's pretty hard if you're a writer.
I'm super excited the book is coming out today. I'm
basically giving you an exclusive in the broadcast media, and
there's a lot in there for investors, Tom, in particular
(16:48):
sports psychology, which I find absolutely fascinating. You have to
learn about losing, you know, Federer said in a statement
to students and commencement. He said, whatever game you play
in life, you're going to lose. And so that applies
to the psychology of leadership of investing as well. And
(17:10):
you know what we do every day, Tom, in financial
market differentiate between luck and skills. That's important too.
Speaker 2 (17:17):
You've got a great idea here.
Speaker 3 (17:18):
I saw in an old movie David Ogilvy, one of
the giants of advertising.
Speaker 2 (17:22):
There's no statue to committees in parks. You go over
to Central Park and there's no statue. Paul Sweeney to
a committee.
Speaker 3 (17:29):
You've got a chapter in there on rethinking team leadership.
Are we two team leadership now?
Speaker 9 (17:35):
Sebastian page, you know, and psychology, there's a lot of research.
It's become very popular to talk about introverts and extroverts,
and so in an investment committee you can see those dynamics.
The research is fascinating because it shows that when people
take time to think about their decision on their own
(17:55):
and do independent thinking without the influence of others in
the room, and then bring those decisions to the table
to debate them, the outcome on decision making is generally better.
So I find that fascinating. And in our assocation committee,
what we do is before the meeting and we have
(18:17):
one tomorrow, everyone submits their thinking, their views on tactical
ass allocation independently and then we collate them and discuss
them as a committee. This way you remove things like
group think. Tom But you know, we all say we
hate meetings. Meetings are essential. Collaboration is essential. At tiro Price.
(18:38):
Our collaboration style is I would say different. We see
the exchange of ideas as a source of alpha, so
it's super important for us.
Speaker 3 (18:47):
I would point out the tiro Price invented this folks
a few years ago. I mean, I mean they are
kind of going to buy side Paul for fractions.
Speaker 7 (18:55):
Debate Sebastian, how do you think what's the best way
to learn leadership skills? I just came from a board
meeting at the Business School of Duke last weekend and
that was a big, big topic at the board level
talking about leadership and how you teach that, how do
you think that's best instilled.
Speaker 9 (19:13):
So in the Psychology of leadership, I talk about several
ways in which what we think about leadership is wrong.
For example, you think a leader needs to be a
great communicator. Well, the higher you go up the organization,
the more you need to listen and be a good listener.
We think leaders need to be decisive. A lot of
(19:36):
really smart, effective leaders I've known knew how to look
at decisions where they needed strategic patients. That's often counterintuitive
because we all want to be super decisive in investment
management too, And so you also think the leader needs
to be built consensus and be agreeable. But sometimes as
a leader, you're not a leader if you're not making
(19:58):
the tough decisions. So you also need to be to
be disagreeable. And the last one that's counterintuitive and that
I think is a big part of learning or relearning
leadership is this idea that the leader is unflappable and
there's no stress there. And the reality and sports psychology
shows that, and positive psychology too, is that stress increases
(20:19):
performance up to a point and leaders have to be
able to handle it and be vulnerable about it and
to a certain extent, embrace it.
Speaker 7 (20:28):
So there's a lot of stress out there in the marketplace,
in the workplace, whether it's driven by technology, changing political trends.
Speaker 6 (20:38):
How do leaders kind.
Speaker 7 (20:39):
Of within their institutions deal with stress and kind of
manage that throughout the organization?
Speaker 9 (20:46):
So we all try to push it out right, We
all go around thinking zero stress is where I'm going
to get optimal performance. What I've learned from sports psychology.
I explain this in the book. It's fascinating stress performance
increases with stress up to a point, and there's a
point of optimal performance that's not zero stress, whether that's
(21:08):
for organizations or individuals, and then after that then you
choke and you know, you get the negative effects of it.
Speaker 3 (21:15):
There's a little stress out there right now, Sebastian page.
What should our stress listeners and viewers on YouTube do
in these stressful times? Do they radically shift their portfolio?
Speaker 2 (21:25):
Do they tweak it? Do they go play golf?
Speaker 3 (21:27):
Or do do they go watch The Last Place Baltimore
Orioles sponsored by tiro Price.
Speaker 9 (21:32):
Thank you for the plug, Dumb. I always appreciate it.
And by the way, thank you for supporting my books,
my first one in this one as well. You're very
gracious to everyone in the industry.
Speaker 2 (21:43):
Got well, thank you, Sebastian.
Speaker 3 (21:45):
But you have a movie coming out in the first
book right with DiCaprio.
Speaker 9 (21:50):
I don't know if that movie would sell talk about
asset allocation versification. Maybe there's a Hollywood version somewhere, but
look the market as it's been sold up. We lost
ten and a half percent in two days a couple
of weeks ago. Those like we've only seen this or
worse three times since World War Two, so we're going
through real volatility.
Speaker 8 (22:11):
Tom.
Speaker 9 (22:11):
I know you like to watch at the Vicks. We
went in above fifty. So we're in a situation where
in our investment teams typically would be leaning in because
this is when there's panic and now you want to
have the opposite reaction and take advantage of higher risk premium.
But I would say right now on our platform, because
(22:32):
markets are still expensive, and you know, earnings expectations are
still high at eleven percent, and growth is slowing and
was slowing into the tariff wars, we're actually closer to
neutral in most of our portfolios, most of our discussions,
even some investors are looking to sell counter rallies. So
(22:52):
unlike other selloffs for the next couple months, I would
sell on our platform, we're more.
Speaker 7 (22:57):
Cautious sebastially in terms of leadership. Has it changed over time?
Does it change over time? I mean when I was
coming up in investment banking, you know, my vice president
told me to you know, work this weekend to do
this deal.
Speaker 6 (23:10):
That's just what I did. Does that still work today?
Speaker 9 (23:15):
I think it has changed. It has evolved. The cultures
across industry, industries but in particular in the investment business
have evolved, and in my mind, they're in a better place.
I think, Paul. The thing that's missing that we need
to talk about more is the meaning of what we
do in financial markets, And to a certain extent, we
(23:36):
have a little bit of a crisis of meaning if
you will, with index strategies and so on. To me,
the meaning is that every day we go to work,
we try to make money for our clients to give
them better retirements. We're not solving you know, big cancer.
We're not, but we're going to work to make money
for our clients, and that's incredibly meaningful. We want to
(23:58):
give them better financial lives. So I think that's the
next step. I think our culture has evolved in our
industry in a positive direction, more mutual respect, more building trust.
But the next step is to go back to the
meaning of what we do in financial markets. It's hugely important.
We don't talk about.
Speaker 2 (24:14):
It, right, Sebastian.
Speaker 3 (24:16):
A lot of people are sitting there staring at the
ceiling or whatever in their car a loon, going what
a god's name do I do with a depleted four
to oh one? K Is it a time to be bold?
I get so much. We had Katie Greifeld and she
was brilliant on marketed caution. It's like, Okay, people are
scared stiff, let's be cautious. And there are all these
(24:38):
cautious strategies. How does Sebastian Page adapt to the marketing
of fear within the industry.
Speaker 9 (24:46):
There's a lot of fear, there's a lot of emotion.
I was on a client webcast last week and we
had about one hundred clients and one person in the
Q and A wrote, Look, I'm panicking abo my four
to one K I'm retiring in five years. Should I
sell everything? And I think that's the wrong way to
(25:07):
look at it. It's tried, you can put it in
a fortune cookie. But those are the moments where you
go back to the basics of staying invested for the
long run, taking a longer run perspective. This is part
of being invested in markets. If you're willing to live
through shorter term volatility, you get paid over time. And
(25:28):
tom if you're if you're fifty five, you know, or sixty,
I know you're much younger than that, thanks, But if
you're in that spot, you're going to retire, you still
have thirty years of life, Like, it's not the time
to de risk your entire portfolio. Even if you're close
to retirement. Yes, you're going to shift to generating income,
but you still you still need growth in your portfolio. Uh,
(25:51):
even even in retirement. So this idea that you've got
to go everything to cash or everything to treasuries. To me,
it's just bad advice.
Speaker 3 (26:00):
Sebastian, thank you so much. Congratulations on a book timely
in this time of emotion and crisis, The Psychology of Leadership,
Timeless Principles to improve your leadership of individuals, teams, and yourself.
I'll get that out on Twitter and LinkedIn here Sebastian
page of course at t rope price.
Speaker 1 (26:18):
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto
with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live
on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just
say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 3 (26:35):
Scott Stringer joins us right now, a former New York
City Controller and a mayor. Kenned is a primary and
there's an election in that. Let's get the primary out
of the way right now. New York Times writes it up.
The mayor's occupied, the governor's piled into the race, and
the line is everyone's invisible. How does Scott Stringer get
(26:56):
visible up to the June primary?
Speaker 10 (26:58):
Wait till the mayor race actually started. You know, you
mentioned my cousin Bella Abzug and the mayor's race of
nineteen seventy seven when Ed Koch was barely a belip
during that race until two weeks to go. And so
everyone who thinks these races end in May, they don't.
They actually end the end of June. And I have
high favorable as a record of fiscal prudence and a
(27:20):
government record that is unmatching this race. So I'm very
confident going into the next couple of months.
Speaker 3 (27:25):
Is your constituency off of Nayler and rest and you
know the whole thing, is your constituency as organized is
it was twenty years ago. Is there a machine in
New York City where the Liberal party that progresses can
get behind one candidate or is it chaos?
Speaker 10 (27:43):
Look, I think times have changed in this city. I
think people really want a mayor who knows what he
or she is doing. They want someone who's confident, they
want someone with experience. They're tired of the chaos. They
don't want the current mayor Eric Adams cast, they don't
want Quomo casts. They want somebody you would have you
build a Blasio. I was controller during that time. Period
(28:04):
I went after. I held up to Blasio accountable three
hundred and sixty four days a year. I gave him
a day off due to Christmas. But I understand city agencies.
I've exposed waste and corruption. I know how to run
a government in the most competent way, and I think
that's what people want. But they also want to live here,
to have affordable housing, to have economic opportunity. People who
(28:24):
come here understand how critical it is to want to
stay here. We got to go back to the compact
of safety, good parks, clean air. This is all what
a mayor has to do, and we need someone to
start focusing on it.
Speaker 6 (28:36):
From your perspective, Scoff, what is the state of the
city today.
Speaker 10 (28:40):
I think we're at a crossroads. I don't think people
understand just how corrupt the last four years have been.
And the first thing the next mayor has to do
is literally reform the government. Bring in the best and
the brightest, bring in people who are competent, who want
to see a better city. Look, we've got to hire
three thousand more cops. We have to align policing and
a mental health insition. We've got to make sure that
(29:01):
a strong mayor can take on Trump when he's going
against New York City. We need somebody who has that experience,
not just pie in the sky promises. And I think
I positioned myself in that way.
Speaker 7 (29:13):
Metropolitan Transit Association, the congestion tax, what's your view there?
Speaker 10 (29:18):
Look, I think gets working. I think people want to
pay a little more to move the city.
Speaker 2 (29:25):
We have a.
Speaker 10 (29:27):
City government that depends on goods and services how they
get in and out.
Speaker 2 (29:32):
Of New York.
Speaker 10 (29:32):
But look, let's make let's make it clear we have
work to do. Congestion pricing helps some, but we have
to build out a Fireborough transportation plan, and we have
not done that yet. When I was supporting congestion pricing
back when Mike Bloomberg was mayor, we always said we
would look at Queen's and Staten Island and how we
can close those transit deserts. So this is just the
first step in a long transportation journey for New York City.
Speaker 3 (29:54):
Imagine that mister Bloomberg, of course of Bloomberg LP is
the founder of this radio station and signs my paycheck, you.
Speaker 2 (30:02):
Know, exactly once a year. Good morning, mister Bloomberg. Scott.
Speaker 10 (30:07):
I thought it'd be good to mention him.
Speaker 2 (30:08):
Just that's good.
Speaker 3 (30:09):
Yeah, and you mentioned him. I got to mention I'm
not in speaking terms with them. But that's a separate issue.
Scott Stringer. How can liberals be conservative and be anti crime?
I mean, there's a whole modern theology. The last election
was to me and eldamount of election. Long Island rose
up and screened we're afraid. How do guys like you
(30:31):
in a city that's become afraid support NYPD and support
a tougher crime view.
Speaker 10 (30:39):
Why do you think that people who are on the
liberal side of the equation, or even the conservative side
can't come together and recognize a problem when you see it.
Speaker 2 (30:50):
It's not me, That's what we've got in this now.
Speaker 10 (30:53):
But I got to tell you something. It's very easy
for me to look at the problem and say, hey,
we are having a trouble retaining the police officers we have.
You know that the young police officers are leaving the
police force in droves, and they're not retiring from policing.
They're actually going to Long Island or Mosquito. States like
Texas and Florida paid and well it's not so much
(31:13):
pay as it is. How do you create a work
life balance. You know, we've gone from six hundred and
fifty million dollars in overtime for policing to one point
three billion. We have the lowest head count in the
NYPD in generations. We're down to thirty three thousand cops.
So what should we do. It doesn't matter whether you're
a liberal conservative monitor. We've got to hire more cops.
That makes financial sense and also from a safety perspective,
(31:36):
makes sense. I want to put a cop on every
train during in those high crime areas.
Speaker 2 (31:39):
I want to.
Speaker 10 (31:40):
Align policing with a mental health initiative because we see
people languishing, suffering, dying on the streets when I take
my two kids on the subway most mornings to go
to school. You know what I see. I see what
I saw in the nineteen seventies, people languishing all the side.
Speaker 2 (31:54):
It must admit, well said, and it's actually true.
Speaker 3 (31:57):
Scott's tringer here with the primary in June, in an
election in November, of course, with his public services family
service over the years to New York City.
Speaker 6 (32:05):
Pulse reading, Scott, as were you to be elected, what
would be the first one.
Speaker 7 (32:10):
Hundred days of your administration?
Speaker 2 (32:12):
What would be the focus.
Speaker 10 (32:13):
We bring in a whole new government, we reform these
city agencies. We have a clarion call for people who
want to serve this city to come into this government
and do the people's business. That's the first step. Second,
I want to build the same kind of housing that
was built in a different generation called Mitchellama Housing MITCHELLAMA
two point zero. I want to take our thousand vacant
(32:34):
lots in the city and let's put to work for
affordable housing so families can come here, go to our
best universities, and stay here in a way that's affordable.
I want to put three thousand cops back on the street.
Want to make sure we align that program with a
mental health initiative. I want to make sure that we
have people taken the police test again. Eight thousand people
(32:55):
took the police test. Do you know how many people
took the sanitation test. There's something wrong here. We're just
not governing anymore. And also I want to make sure
that we bring back something called quality of life. We'll
have a Deputy Mayor for Quality of Life, will initiate
quality stat will break down the silos of all these
city agencies. I've ordered all of them. And I got
(33:16):
to tell you mental health has to start talking to
small business and vice versa. We got to get a
handle on this government. You need somebody who actually knows
how to govern. And as borough president for eight years,
as controller for eight years, I know the fiscal situation
in the city like the back of my hand. I'm
not over promising like others in this campaign. I'm just
gonna be me and be the life long New York.
(33:37):
I've always been to fix the city taxes.
Speaker 7 (33:41):
Pretty much everybody you walk into on the street say,
my taxes are too high.
Speaker 6 (33:45):
What do you say, what's your tax.
Speaker 10 (33:46):
Well, let's give people some value for those taxes. Let's
go back to the compact we've always had in this city,
which is if you come here, you pay a little more,
but you're going to get a clean city, not going
to have rats running around, garbage piled high. I mean
we've got rats walking upright right now. They've come up
to me on one occasion at night saying, hey, can
(34:07):
you beat Cormo. I mean, this is a real crisis.
People say, what am I paying for? What's the value
of my taxes? And we have to go back to
making people understand that what they get in return is
a real New York City that they'll never leave.
Speaker 3 (34:21):
What is your policy on immigration and migration and the
emotion here of people coming in that are new and troubled.
Speaker 10 (34:29):
But we've always had people come, like my grandparents came
to this city and came to this country. So let's
not start filtering out who comes and who doesn't. Let's
be very smart about this. Look, you bring gang members
in here, get them out. I'd be the first one
to stand and say, we want you out of here.
No guns, no violence, but for people who flee persecution,
(34:50):
for people, I mean, come on, we were so much
better than this, and we can. You know, good government
means we can absorb people. We can absorb crises have
to be a meltdown.
Speaker 2 (35:01):
I gotta ask you one final question, Harry.
Speaker 3 (35:03):
I think it's it's hugely emotional for everyone across this nation.
Speaker 2 (35:06):
There is an.
Speaker 3 (35:07):
Uproar among liberals over a generational shift, as identified by
Senator Schumer, over to something new. John Ferrell mentioned at
Glenn Young kein of Virginia. The Utah event of Senator
Sanders the other day helped me here with what the
new generation of Democrats look like.
Speaker 10 (35:26):
Look, we've always had a new generation of Democrats. You
mentioned the starting at the show, very very smart, right,
Bella Abzug was a new generation.
Speaker 3 (35:37):
You can't imagine a shock, and this mouthy woman was.
Speaker 2 (35:41):
It was the progress.
Speaker 10 (35:42):
And look, I was a twelve year old kid running
around campaigning with her during the Vietnam War. And you
know what happened. A few years into her term. The
US News and World Report, not the most liberal newspaper
or magazine, named her the number three most competent and
effective member of Congress. I'm am, I embrace the new generation,
(36:04):
but right now we need somebody in New York City
who represents vision, experience and competence. Make no mistake, this
is a moment where we have to rate the ship
so that the new generation can come in. Right, do
it all generations?
Speaker 3 (36:17):
Someone say you just describe Governor Cuomo. I mean, the
basic idea is he's been around, his father's iconic. You're
up against Cuomo. What's the biggest stetriment there?
Speaker 10 (36:26):
Look, he's chaotic, and he's not pro New York City,
and he doesn't like people, and he's running the worst
kind of campaign. That makes him unelectable in my mind,
but no one's going to realize that until June first.
And I hope to come back on this show as
your mayor elect and talk to you, especially about the
history of mayoral politics and what went wrong in his campaign.
But I am not feeling.
Speaker 2 (36:46):
Him disgustering to thank you so much for running here
for mayor.
Speaker 1 (36:55):
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
star It's seven am Eastern on Apple Coarclay and Android
Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch
us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the
Bloomberg terminal for their newspapers.
Speaker 2 (37:11):
To the astronaut, Lisa.
Speaker 11 (37:13):
Imagine I could dare to dream.
Speaker 5 (37:15):
Good Mardy, guys.
Speaker 11 (37:16):
So yeah, So the first thing I want to start
with is Netflix, and they have some ambitious goals.
Speaker 5 (37:22):
This was from the Wall Street Journal.
Speaker 11 (37:23):
They're saying that it hopes to achieve a one trillion
dollar market cap. Currently their cap is almost at about
four hundred billion. They want to also double its revenue
by twenty thirty. Executives have this goal of tripling Netflix
is operating in come by twenty thirty from ten billion
last year. So this was all in this annual business review,
meaning last last month that some people were in.
Speaker 5 (37:45):
They told this to the Wall Street Journal, so they
got the insight info on it.
Speaker 2 (37:49):
How do they do this? They raise?
Speaker 6 (37:50):
Well, that's what I was going to ask Lisa, how
did they do it? I mean, I mean, I think
they're going to raise the prices.
Speaker 7 (37:55):
I think they're going to ramp up, continue to ramp
up their advertising in newsps, gribers, in other parts.
Speaker 2 (38:01):
Of the ads within the video. Yeah, yeah, stards within
the video.
Speaker 6 (38:06):
Yeah, you can.
Speaker 11 (38:07):
Different tiers, so you can do the cheaper version and
you'll pay less, but you get the ads with it.
Speaker 7 (38:13):
I mean, four hundred billion market caps, stocks of five
percent this year, but up fifty percent.
Speaker 2 (38:19):
For Netflix.
Speaker 8 (38:20):
Oh, I don't know.
Speaker 10 (38:20):
I mean, I don't know.
Speaker 2 (38:21):
I don't know.
Speaker 6 (38:23):
Yeah, I don't know.
Speaker 2 (38:24):
I'm today.
Speaker 6 (38:25):
Ye, you just think I'm gonna go.
Speaker 5 (38:27):
But eighteen bucks?
Speaker 2 (38:28):
So what would you pay? Would you pay twenty four
ninety nine?
Speaker 12 (38:32):
No?
Speaker 6 (38:32):
I don't think.
Speaker 11 (38:33):
I think I would have to go for the commercials,
even though my kids are like, we don't do commercials.
Speaker 5 (38:37):
I don't care, I don't.
Speaker 11 (38:39):
I mean, So that's that iPhones, right, We've been hearing
different stories about how much the price of an Apple
iPhone can go up because of all this tariff uncertainty.
Business Insider actually went to all these Reddit posts people
talking about it, and they're saying what they're doing to
avoid these pricey upgrades save money on the device. For example,
(39:00):
some are doing the maintenance now right, they're they're doing
the upgrade now, But others are keeping up with the
battery life because that's what seems to go first. When
you have your phone. It's always like, oh, the battery
is dying. I need an upgrade, And they're saying, no,
you just need a new battery. So they're saying you
could do something like that. It's about ninety nine bucks
or so you can get the new battery.
Speaker 5 (39:19):
But something else they're doing.
Speaker 11 (39:21):
They're saying iPhones come with this limited one year warranty
that you might not even.
Speaker 5 (39:24):
Know that you have.
Speaker 11 (39:25):
So it has it, so go check it out. And
they also have this Apple Care plus thing. It's about
fourteen bucks a month.
Speaker 2 (39:32):
I do Apple Care.
Speaker 5 (39:33):
You do do the Apple Care. See, I haven't.
Speaker 6 (39:36):
Even heard of that.
Speaker 11 (39:36):
I have to get it today because the crews, the repairs,
the replacement.
Speaker 5 (39:40):
If you lose it.
Speaker 3 (39:41):
I mean if you get them on the phone, they
treat you differently than just the numbers, is what they would.
Speaker 11 (39:48):
Did you know you're paying fourteen dollars Worset.
Speaker 2 (39:51):
Apple in two weeks. We don't have a clue.
Speaker 10 (39:53):
I don't know.
Speaker 6 (39:54):
We have no clue where the economy is.
Speaker 3 (39:57):
You know, the uncertainty of your folks off the chart.
Good morning, Nick Booth out of Stanford one.
Speaker 6 (40:02):
What do you okay?
Speaker 11 (40:03):
You touched on this a little bit, all the talk
right Rory McRoy victory the Masters. I have the numbers
for you because you were talking about the ratings and
how much people watching it.
Speaker 5 (40:11):
CBS that it.
Speaker 11 (40:11):
Attracted twelve point seven million viewers Sunday. That's a thirty
three percent increase from last year when Scotti Sheffield he won.
It's the most watched match up, yes, since twenty.
Speaker 5 (40:22):
Eighteen Sheffield he played with them Scheffler Scheffler. Uh so
it was the most watched one, yes, twenty eighteen.
Speaker 11 (40:29):
So I mean this tournament really needs the boost too.
Then then the article kind of gets into that as well.
Speaker 7 (40:36):
Boy, I don't know what they changed, Yeah, one of
the other I think it might be the British I'm
not sure the Open Championship as they call it, not sure,
but they've got them spaced out pretty much throughout the year.
Speaker 2 (40:45):
Okay, is that all you got today?
Speaker 5 (40:47):
I did?
Speaker 3 (40:48):
Well?
Speaker 12 (40:48):
You know what you talked about the Blue Origin playing.
Speaker 2 (40:51):
Yeah? How that?
Speaker 6 (40:51):
Well?
Speaker 12 (40:52):
You know what, a lot of people have been giving
them some backlash, Gail King, Lauren Sanchez, a lot of
celebrities because they're saying it was commercial lies and it
is a commercial flight.
Speaker 2 (41:02):
It's for rich people. I get it. I'm not going
to pay one hundred and fifty thousand Base Bay.
Speaker 6 (41:07):
Why are they there?
Speaker 2 (41:09):
Why are they giving him garbage?
Speaker 11 (41:10):
I'm serious, because they're just saying that they were sellouts.
They also have the environmental factor for it. Does you
know it's no point just going up, going into the environment.
Speaker 3 (41:19):
We upset the desert of Texas when the capsule landed.
Speaker 1 (41:24):
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,
and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday,
seven to ten am Easter and on Bloomberg dot Com,
the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app.
You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube
(41:44):
and always on the Bloomberg terminal,
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg
Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern
on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.
Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch
(00:25):
us live on YouTube.
Speaker 2 (00:27):
Joining us Chief, where are we economists at?
Speaker 3 (00:30):
EIU Constance owner joins us After a good conversation last week,
it seems like three months as we last talked to you,
I think it was two cups of coffee.
Speaker 4 (00:39):
It's I mean, that is it only Tuesday?
Speaker 2 (00:42):
Yeah?
Speaker 3 (00:42):
On a day to day basis, how do you sustain
your analysis?
Speaker 4 (00:47):
So, as Lisa was giving her excellent rundown, I was
thinking about how we spent all of yesterday looking at
the pharma codes.
Speaker 5 (00:55):
So there's two codes.
Speaker 4 (00:56):
There's the codes that start with the number thirty that
are all sort of the finalized goods.
Speaker 5 (01:01):
There's the codes that start with the.
Speaker 4 (01:03):
Number twenty nine, and those are all the goods that
the intermediate goods that go into pharma. And of course
Trump is threatening these pharma tariffs, and we're trying to
get ahead of this by like really just ingesting all
the codes, thinking about what the impacts would be.
Speaker 3 (01:19):
The bottom line is he may screw up our feed
of antibiotic materials.
Speaker 6 (01:24):
That's what we're talking about.
Speaker 4 (01:26):
Yes, I mean when you put tariffs on like this
and we basically embargoed China, there is not going to
be any more supply of many, many goods from China. Right,
we do that to pharmaceuticals. It's a very dangerous game
to play in an ad hoc way.
Speaker 7 (01:40):
So you put all this stuff in a blender, and
I don't know what goes in this blender anymore, But
what does it do to your economic forecast?
Speaker 6 (01:48):
Do you even? I guess you have to keep so.
Speaker 4 (01:51):
Obviously we keep analyzing and expanding our modalities for analyzing
what the weighted average tarif rate is. But what we
have and this is this is almost stupidly simple. But
what we have done is we've looked at the uncertainty
index that Baker and Bloom put out from Stanford. Now,
one of the bases of that index is actually the
(02:12):
EIU database are written works over the last thirty years.
Speaker 5 (02:16):
That's one component.
Speaker 4 (02:17):
Another component is the change in tax code that's anticipated
over the next two years. Obviously, we have the TCJA
coming up that leads to a lot of uncertainty and
then the dispersion of economic forecasts. And when you use
this index, you can see that it is correlated with recessions.
Speaker 5 (02:35):
You know that those recessions weren't we didn't we were.
Speaker 4 (02:38):
They were called after the fact as NBER does, and
probably that data ended up being revised down. So we
know that this forecasts and corresponds with a reduction in capex,
a reduction in consumer spending, and of course those two
things together mean lower employment growth eventually declines in employment.
Speaker 3 (02:58):
Okay, where are you on jobs? The elasticity of all
of these emotions, crisis. Whatever our listeners and viewers think,
the bottom line is, I'm sorry, if I'm elected free beer.
Speaker 2 (03:10):
It comes back to jobs, right.
Speaker 3 (03:11):
Yeah, When to claims pop or other series, the constance
hunter looks at yeah.
Speaker 4 (03:17):
And I mean, we're expecting somewhat softer jobs in the
in the April report, but that's going to be a
really critical factor, I think, and when the Fed can
actually go ahead and move rates, right, so as long
as jobs are holding in there, and of course we
know it's at best a coincidence indicator, probably a lagging
indicator in many instances, but they are still going to
(03:39):
wait to see some weakness. So we're going to look
at things like ours worked. We're going to look at
the diffusion index. We're going to look at the composition
of what types of jobs are being created, because state
and local governments are probably going to pull back on
some of the hiring they've done. They did made up
makeup hiring over the last four years since the pandemic
because they were under hiring in all the years following
(03:59):
the globalinantle crisis.
Speaker 6 (04:02):
Do you have a recession in your forecast?
Speaker 5 (04:04):
We do have a recession in our forecast.
Speaker 6 (04:05):
And how deep it is not so.
Speaker 4 (04:08):
It is it is concentrated in the second and third quarters.
We do think the Fed ax. We think the FED
goes four times this year. But it really just depends
on if we can dampen down some of this uncertainty,
if they could, if they could come out and be
a little more clear in the way they.
Speaker 3 (04:24):
Can economist, I mean, whatever anybody's political persuasions, Paul am
I right, we're hanging headline to headline.
Speaker 4 (04:34):
Yes, nobody in companies can't plan, nobody does capex in
this environment.
Speaker 3 (04:38):
Okay, Lisa to cut to the chase. China said we
want Seattle. Boeing does a ton of work with Cathay
Pacific in the rest and now they're saying we don't
even want the parts from Bowing. And I keep getting
notes from smart people saying it's a whole supply chain thing.
Speaker 4 (04:55):
Yeah, and the supply chain is so integrated across borders
as well, right, I mean things.
Speaker 3 (05:00):
We can't but we can't do manufacturing your shop ei
U owns saying analysis, what do you look at?
Speaker 4 (05:08):
So we're looking at all the intermediate goods, right, So
if you think about even manufacturing in the US, even
the manufacturing we do here takes imported parts and puts
that into the final goods.
Speaker 3 (05:19):
Right.
Speaker 4 (05:19):
So this is this is like the policies of Juan
Peron in Argentina in nineteen forty five when he said, well,
we're just going to make everything here in Argentina, Like
if we keep going down this road, it does not end.
Speaker 2 (05:32):
Well, that's the first time I've heard that. That's brilliant, man.
Speaker 3 (05:35):
I saw Anne Marie in Buenos airesis last night. Yeah,
she had the red ball main thing guy, and I
think she looked like a Vina Yep. Yeah, you know,
I was looking at it's it's a Vina and she's
a pro.
Speaker 2 (05:47):
She's very Madonna.
Speaker 6 (05:48):
What do we do here with our labor market?
Speaker 8 (05:50):
Here?
Speaker 7 (05:51):
Do you fear that this were essentially a fully employed
labor market with low four percent unemployment?
Speaker 6 (05:57):
Where do you think that goes? Oh?
Speaker 5 (05:58):
I think it has to go higher.
Speaker 4 (06:00):
And we have a pretty I would say tempered forecast
for the end of this year. If I were going
to guess, the risk is to the downside, right, So
we have it going up to four point six, I
think four point eight, and then you get into when
does it become nonlinear?
Speaker 3 (06:15):
Right?
Speaker 4 (06:15):
When does it go from four point eight up to
five point five?
Speaker 9 (06:19):
Right?
Speaker 5 (06:19):
And how quickly does that move happen?
Speaker 4 (06:22):
Because that's what happens if you really get into a
vicious circle.
Speaker 3 (06:25):
You're the first one I want to finish up with this.
You're the first one on air to bring up what
I'm focused on. And folks, this goes back to my
major in college and all that you know a long
time ago, and that is the pharmaceuticals. And I think
people are like, oh, one, I can't spell it and
it's too complicated, But the answer.
Speaker 2 (06:46):
Is all of those pills we give our.
Speaker 3 (06:49):
Family members, particularly our kids when they're sick, have materials
from China. That's an accurate statement, right.
Speaker 4 (06:56):
And think of all the people we have an aging population.
Think of know a person over the age of sixty
that doesn't take at least one prescription a day.
Speaker 5 (07:03):
Very few.
Speaker 2 (07:04):
I've never confronted that. I mean, I mean, if I
look at this concert, I.
Speaker 4 (07:10):
Put myself, I'm not over sixty, but I still I'm
at the age where I'm taking one medicine a day
at least you and Michael Backer.
Speaker 3 (07:16):
But the bottom line constants Hunter is and I'm suggesting
here maybe exaggerating this pharmaceutical debate, it's way more than
just another press release or overlaw office statements.
Speaker 4 (07:30):
Absolutely, it's really really significant. And when you combine that
with the fact that we withdrew from who that we're
gutting HH staff, it's really has significant ramifications.
Speaker 5 (07:45):
Remember Robert Gordon.
Speaker 4 (07:46):
One of the things Rise and Fall of American growth,
he cites five things that contributed to productivity of the
early nineteen hundreds of mid nineteen hundreds, and Nacillan is
one of them. Why Because medicine help people get sick.
I mean, get sick, get recover from being sick faster.
It means fewer people die, and that improves a prop.
Speaker 3 (08:07):
Back seeing which I remember the pin drops. Yep, consence,
Thank you so much. Constance Hunter with EIU Here.
Speaker 1 (08:18):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live
weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern. Listen on
Applecarplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app, or
watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 3 (08:30):
It's a week A banker names JP Morgan over in
the investment side, Golden sacks JP Morgan Equity Trading ginormous
City Group today two hundred and twenty nine thousand employees.
Speaker 2 (08:42):
How about Paul published on the.
Speaker 3 (08:43):
Bloomberg A bank with nine hundred and fifty one employees.
Speaker 2 (08:49):
Towns River, New Jersey, Jersey Shore.
Speaker 3 (08:51):
There we are, Jersey Shore joining us now from Ocean
First Financial. I'm loving that we're doing this. Nobody told
me that we're doing this.
Speaker 2 (08:58):
This is great.
Speaker 3 (08:59):
Christopher joins us from Ocean First Financial. It's back I
guess to nineteen oh two, is point pleasant?
Speaker 2 (09:06):
That's right?
Speaker 3 (09:07):
Yeah, that's right, Okay, yeah, this is great. We are
so mental about talking about these ginormous banks. Just simply
in this modern age, how do you compete with super
regionals in the ginormous.
Speaker 8 (09:21):
Well, you know, it all comes down to your relationship
with your customers. So you know, we were founded in
nineteen oh two is the Point Pleasant Building and Loan
Association of Point Pleasant Beach, so at the Bailey Building
and Loan right over the year's Commercial Bank Diversified. We
operate throughout the Northeast and what we've found is customers
really value that ability to have a conversation with a
(09:42):
bank or a trusted partner, someone who's going to deliver.
And you're going to compete on that, on doing what
you promised you're going to do, doing it quickly and effectively.
And if you do that, you're going to do just fine.
Speaker 7 (09:52):
Chris, what's a typical corporate customer for your bank? What
are they like and what are they telling you these days?
Speaker 8 (09:57):
So you know, most of our clients are small of
family owned businesses. They range, We cover a geography between
DC and Boston. All sorts could be manufacturing, logistics services companies.
And what they're telling us today is certainly there's a
level of apprehension given all the volatility, but they're not
overly concerned. You know, many of these folks took a
(10:18):
master class in supply chain during the pandemic, so they've
got you know, secondary and tertiary suppliers, they've got different
warehouse capabilities. They are concerned, and we're concerned about how
long the volatility continues, but generally they're weathering it pretty well.
Speaker 7 (10:34):
I mean, that's something that Tom has talked about a lot,
which is corporations adapt and maybe that's kind of what
you're seeing here. Are they putting projects on hold?
Speaker 6 (10:46):
Are they waiting?
Speaker 7 (10:47):
We've heard that from some of the larger companies out
there that the larger banks. We've heard from even more
Morgan standing seeing other clients are just saying just let.
Speaker 6 (10:53):
Us wait a little bit. Are you seeing that at
the local level.
Speaker 8 (10:56):
Yeah, Paul, some are so. I'll use an example. We
have a plastic manufacturer that was in the process of
doing a significant expansion, buying some equipment, some of which
was from Germany, someone was from China. The cost of
the tariffs on that equipment would have raised the cost
of their project. I think in the range of six
hundred thousand dollars. They're likely going to continue with the
project at some point, but it doesn't make sense to
(11:18):
just forge forward and pay those tariffs. They're going to
wait and see. And if this is a short term thing,
I don't think it's going to upset much. But the
longer this goes on, the concern builds.
Speaker 3 (11:27):
I'm fascinated by the day to day grind of a
very small bank versus the major. Now on your website,
you hired Zachary Hauser in northern Virginia. He's a Minnesota
Vikings fan, which is I don't get.
Speaker 2 (11:40):
It, but there it is.
Speaker 3 (11:43):
Why would Zachary Hauser leave Bank of America, Wells Fargo,
and the iconic Buffalo M and T Bank to join
an itty bitty bank in Times River.
Speaker 8 (11:54):
Yeah. So, Look, we built a following, and I think
professionals from around our industry understand that the number one
thing that's important to them is their ability to serve
their clients. And although we're on the smaller side, you know,
it's just about fourteen billion dollars of assets, we're a
top one hundred US bank. That's both wonderful and terrible. Right,
we should have more banks in this country, but that
(12:15):
gives us the scale to be able to support very
large businesses.
Speaker 2 (12:20):
I mean, just this just came up. Paul just sent
me an email.
Speaker 3 (12:23):
Paul, I think a refine through ocean first shot. I
think it says it, Sure, you can take your vest, but.
Speaker 6 (12:30):
Down there exactly, you know, check it out. We'll find
these guys. So, Chris, you mentioned you know, maybe we
need more banks.
Speaker 7 (12:37):
I think what a lot of people came to understand
when we saw the regional bank crisis of several years.
Speaker 6 (12:41):
Ago with SVB is Boyd.
Speaker 7 (12:43):
We have five thousand regional banks around the country. No
other country has that. Do we consolidate the regional bank business?
Speaker 6 (12:51):
How do you think about that?
Speaker 8 (12:52):
Well, certainly there's a need for efficiencies and consolidation. I
think we'll see some of that. But on the other hand,
you know, we provide a niche regional banks in general,
where we're the main street lenders. So when you think
about these family owned, privately held businesses, the majority of
credit to that sector comes from regional banks like US
between ten billion and one hundred billion dollars in deposits.
(13:12):
If you think back to COVID, we were the industry
that jumped in and handled the PPP out of the gate.
We were faster than the big banks. We made early
commitments to doing it, and in our case, you know,
we were out. We're one of the first lenders in
the business getting dollars on the street to our clients.
So we do need that kind of layer of banks
that are much more responsive to their customers.
Speaker 2 (13:33):
Do you read Jamie Diamond's annual letter?
Speaker 8 (13:34):
Absolutely?
Speaker 3 (13:36):
What do you take from mister Diamond's letter that you
can apply to nine hundred and fifty one employees out
of Thymes River.
Speaker 8 (13:42):
There's a lot of commonality. So when you think about
the principles that Jamie runs by and we believe the
same thing. You want to have a fortress balance sheet.
You know, look, we don't want a recession, but we're
prepared for a recession. If you're running a bank, you
better expect that one could happen. I think the discipline
about doing the right thing by your customers, by your employees.
Probably my favorite story is the outsourcing of their security
(14:04):
and then the reinsourcing of their security, because at the
end of the day, you want to make sure that
your people are connected to the customers.
Speaker 6 (14:11):
Private equity, I mean private credit. How is that is
that a.
Speaker 7 (14:14):
Competitor to you in your market, because we've heard about
it that they're competing with the JP Morgans of the
world and taking business from them or maybe substituting for them.
Speaker 6 (14:23):
Are you seeing in the smaller markets?
Speaker 8 (14:25):
Absolutely, private credit as a competitor, But interestingly they're also
becoming a big client of ours. So in many cases
we are doing more and more business with private credit
where we're lending along with them, coming into join credit
facilities or lending to them either on a deal by
deal basis and note on note finance or lending to
the fund itself. So I think it's the fastest growth
(14:46):
area for US.
Speaker 3 (14:48):
I gotta ask, I mean, are you I mean, I
don't mean to be rude, but I'm going to be rude.
Are you guys helping out Jon bon Jovi with a
soul kitchen?
Speaker 8 (14:57):
Times Are of New Jersey, as a matter of fact,
did a joint project with jompon Jovi in the Soul kitchen.
We built out a new facility a couple of years back.
We were one of four donors that helped make that possible.
The Ocean First Foundation is made over fifty million dollars
worth of grants in our communities and that was one
of our special grants a number of years ago.
Speaker 2 (15:15):
Did he sing a concerts for your mister Ward meeting.
Speaker 8 (15:18):
We didn't get a concert, but he was a very
gracious man.
Speaker 3 (15:20):
So Chris Mayor, thank you so much. Greatly appreciate it.
With the Ocean First team.
Speaker 1 (15:26):
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto
with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live
on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, just
say Alexa Play. Bloomberg eleven thirty said this before.
Speaker 3 (15:45):
That there's like four hundred and twenty two books out
on asset allocation and diversification. In the single read for
adults both Global Wall Street and people engaged in the
debate is from Sebastian Page. His day job as a
tea rope. His night job is to sit in the
Orioles dugout. He writes it, I don't like an iPad
or whatever, and we celebrate today. His new book is
(16:10):
that is out and it's a shift. It's called The
Psychology of Leadership. Sebastian Page joins us right now come on,
you're doing a Malcolm Gladwell thing here.
Speaker 2 (16:19):
Why are we doing this? Why are we doing this?
Psychology of leadership? Did cal rip Can put you up
to this?
Speaker 9 (16:26):
Tom, that's a great compliment. I think Malcolm Gladwell is
a great writer. And by the way, Tom, I don't
write on iPads. That's pretty hard if you're a writer.
I'm super excited the book is coming out today. I'm
basically giving you an exclusive in the broadcast media, and
there's a lot in there for investors, Tom, in particular
(16:48):
sports psychology, which I find absolutely fascinating. You have to
learn about losing, you know, Federer said in a statement
to students and commencement. He said, whatever game you play
in life, you're going to lose. And so that applies
to the psychology of leadership of investing as well. And
(17:10):
you know what we do every day, Tom, in financial
market differentiate between luck and skills. That's important too.
Speaker 2 (17:17):
You've got a great idea here.
Speaker 3 (17:18):
I saw in an old movie David Ogilvy, one of
the giants of advertising.
Speaker 2 (17:22):
There's no statue to committees in parks. You go over
to Central Park and there's no statue. Paul Sweeney to
a committee.
Speaker 3 (17:29):
You've got a chapter in there on rethinking team leadership.
Are we two team leadership now?
Speaker 9 (17:35):
Sebastian page, you know, and psychology, there's a lot of research.
It's become very popular to talk about introverts and extroverts,
and so in an investment committee you can see those dynamics.
The research is fascinating because it shows that when people
take time to think about their decision on their own
(17:55):
and do independent thinking without the influence of others in
the room, and then bring those decisions to the table
to debate them, the outcome on decision making is generally better.
So I find that fascinating. And in our assocation committee,
what we do is before the meeting and we have
(18:17):
one tomorrow, everyone submits their thinking, their views on tactical
ass allocation independently and then we collate them and discuss
them as a committee. This way you remove things like
group think. Tom But you know, we all say we
hate meetings. Meetings are essential. Collaboration is essential. At tiro Price.
(18:38):
Our collaboration style is I would say different. We see
the exchange of ideas as a source of alpha, so
it's super important for us.
Speaker 3 (18:47):
I would point out the tiro Price invented this folks
a few years ago. I mean, I mean they are
kind of going to buy side Paul for fractions.
Speaker 7 (18:55):
Debate Sebastian, how do you think what's the best way
to learn leadership skills? I just came from a board
meeting at the Business School of Duke last weekend and
that was a big, big topic at the board level
talking about leadership and how you teach that, how do
you think that's best instilled.
Speaker 9 (19:13):
So in the Psychology of leadership, I talk about several
ways in which what we think about leadership is wrong.
For example, you think a leader needs to be a
great communicator. Well, the higher you go up the organization,
the more you need to listen and be a good listener.
We think leaders need to be decisive. A lot of
(19:36):
really smart, effective leaders I've known knew how to look
at decisions where they needed strategic patients. That's often counterintuitive
because we all want to be super decisive in investment
management too, And so you also think the leader needs
to be built consensus and be agreeable. But sometimes as
a leader, you're not a leader if you're not making
(19:58):
the tough decisions. So you also need to be to
be disagreeable. And the last one that's counterintuitive and that
I think is a big part of learning or relearning
leadership is this idea that the leader is unflappable and
there's no stress there. And the reality and sports psychology
shows that, and positive psychology too, is that stress increases
(20:19):
performance up to a point and leaders have to be
able to handle it and be vulnerable about it and
to a certain extent, embrace it.
Speaker 7 (20:28):
So there's a lot of stress out there in the marketplace,
in the workplace, whether it's driven by technology, changing political trends.
Speaker 6 (20:38):
How do leaders kind.
Speaker 7 (20:39):
Of within their institutions deal with stress and kind of
manage that throughout the organization?
Speaker 9 (20:46):
So we all try to push it out right, We
all go around thinking zero stress is where I'm going
to get optimal performance. What I've learned from sports psychology.
I explain this in the book. It's fascinating stress performance
increases with stress up to a point, and there's a
point of optimal performance that's not zero stress, whether that's
(21:08):
for organizations or individuals, and then after that then you
choke and you know, you get the negative effects of it.
Speaker 3 (21:15):
There's a little stress out there right now, Sebastian page.
What should our stress listeners and viewers on YouTube do
in these stressful times? Do they radically shift their portfolio?
Speaker 2 (21:25):
Do they tweak it? Do they go play golf?
Speaker 3 (21:27):
Or do do they go watch The Last Place Baltimore
Orioles sponsored by tiro Price.
Speaker 9 (21:32):
Thank you for the plug, Dumb. I always appreciate it.
And by the way, thank you for supporting my books,
my first one in this one as well. You're very
gracious to everyone in the industry.
Speaker 2 (21:43):
Got well, thank you, Sebastian.
Speaker 3 (21:45):
But you have a movie coming out in the first
book right with DiCaprio.
Speaker 9 (21:50):
I don't know if that movie would sell talk about
asset allocation versification. Maybe there's a Hollywood version somewhere, but
look the market as it's been sold up. We lost
ten and a half percent in two days a couple
of weeks ago. Those like we've only seen this or
worse three times since World War Two, so we're going
through real volatility.
Speaker 8 (22:11):
Tom.
Speaker 9 (22:11):
I know you like to watch at the Vicks. We
went in above fifty. So we're in a situation where
in our investment teams typically would be leaning in because
this is when there's panic and now you want to
have the opposite reaction and take advantage of higher risk premium.
But I would say right now on our platform, because
(22:32):
markets are still expensive, and you know, earnings expectations are
still high at eleven percent, and growth is slowing and
was slowing into the tariff wars, we're actually closer to
neutral in most of our portfolios, most of our discussions,
even some investors are looking to sell counter rallies. So
(22:52):
unlike other selloffs for the next couple months, I would
sell on our platform, we're more.
Speaker 7 (22:57):
Cautious sebastially in terms of leadership. Has it changed over time?
Does it change over time? I mean when I was
coming up in investment banking, you know, my vice president
told me to you know, work this weekend to do
this deal.
Speaker 6 (23:10):
That's just what I did. Does that still work today?
Speaker 9 (23:15):
I think it has changed. It has evolved. The cultures
across industry, industries but in particular in the investment business
have evolved, and in my mind, they're in a better place.
I think, Paul. The thing that's missing that we need
to talk about more is the meaning of what we
do in financial markets, And to a certain extent, we
(23:36):
have a little bit of a crisis of meaning if
you will, with index strategies and so on. To me,
the meaning is that every day we go to work,
we try to make money for our clients to give
them better retirements. We're not solving you know, big cancer.
We're not, but we're going to work to make money
for our clients, and that's incredibly meaningful. We want to
(23:58):
give them better financial lives. So I think that's the
next step. I think our culture has evolved in our
industry in a positive direction, more mutual respect, more building trust.
But the next step is to go back to the
meaning of what we do in financial markets. It's hugely important.
We don't talk about.
Speaker 2 (24:14):
It, right, Sebastian.
Speaker 3 (24:16):
A lot of people are sitting there staring at the
ceiling or whatever in their car a loon, going what
a god's name do I do with a depleted four
to oh one? K Is it a time to be bold?
I get so much. We had Katie Greifeld and she
was brilliant on marketed caution. It's like, Okay, people are
scared stiff, let's be cautious. And there are all these
(24:38):
cautious strategies. How does Sebastian Page adapt to the marketing
of fear within the industry.
Speaker 9 (24:46):
There's a lot of fear, there's a lot of emotion.
I was on a client webcast last week and we
had about one hundred clients and one person in the
Q and A wrote, Look, I'm panicking abo my four
to one K I'm retiring in five years. Should I
sell everything? And I think that's the wrong way to
(25:07):
look at it. It's tried, you can put it in
a fortune cookie. But those are the moments where you
go back to the basics of staying invested for the
long run, taking a longer run perspective. This is part
of being invested in markets. If you're willing to live
through shorter term volatility, you get paid over time. And
(25:28):
tom if you're if you're fifty five, you know, or sixty,
I know you're much younger than that, thanks, But if
you're in that spot, you're going to retire, you still
have thirty years of life, Like, it's not the time
to de risk your entire portfolio. Even if you're close
to retirement. Yes, you're going to shift to generating income,
but you still you still need growth in your portfolio. Uh,
(25:51):
even even in retirement. So this idea that you've got
to go everything to cash or everything to treasuries. To me,
it's just bad advice.
Speaker 3 (26:00):
Sebastian, thank you so much. Congratulations on a book timely
in this time of emotion and crisis, The Psychology of Leadership,
Timeless Principles to improve your leadership of individuals, teams, and yourself.
I'll get that out on Twitter and LinkedIn here Sebastian
page of course at t rope price.
Speaker 1 (26:18):
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto
with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live
on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just
say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 3 (26:35):
Scott Stringer joins us right now, a former New York
City Controller and a mayor. Kenned is a primary and
there's an election in that. Let's get the primary out
of the way right now. New York Times writes it up.
The mayor's occupied, the governor's piled into the race, and
the line is everyone's invisible. How does Scott Stringer get
(26:56):
visible up to the June primary?
Speaker 10 (26:58):
Wait till the mayor race actually started. You know, you
mentioned my cousin Bella Abzug and the mayor's race of
nineteen seventy seven when Ed Koch was barely a belip
during that race until two weeks to go. And so
everyone who thinks these races end in May, they don't.
They actually end the end of June. And I have
high favorable as a record of fiscal prudence and a
(27:20):
government record that is unmatching this race. So I'm very
confident going into the next couple of months.
Speaker 3 (27:25):
Is your constituency off of Nayler and rest and you
know the whole thing, is your constituency as organized is
it was twenty years ago. Is there a machine in
New York City where the Liberal party that progresses can
get behind one candidate or is it chaos?
Speaker 10 (27:43):
Look, I think times have changed in this city. I
think people really want a mayor who knows what he
or she is doing. They want someone who's confident, they
want someone with experience. They're tired of the chaos. They
don't want the current mayor Eric Adams cast, they don't
want Quomo casts. They want somebody you would have you
build a Blasio. I was controller during that time. Period
(28:04):
I went after. I held up to Blasio accountable three
hundred and sixty four days a year. I gave him
a day off due to Christmas. But I understand city agencies.
I've exposed waste and corruption. I know how to run
a government in the most competent way, and I think
that's what people want. But they also want to live here,
to have affordable housing, to have economic opportunity. People who
(28:24):
come here understand how critical it is to want to
stay here. We got to go back to the compact
of safety, good parks, clean air. This is all what
a mayor has to do, and we need someone to
start focusing on it.
Speaker 6 (28:36):
From your perspective, Scoff, what is the state of the
city today.
Speaker 10 (28:40):
I think we're at a crossroads. I don't think people
understand just how corrupt the last four years have been.
And the first thing the next mayor has to do
is literally reform the government. Bring in the best and
the brightest, bring in people who are competent, who want
to see a better city. Look, we've got to hire
three thousand more cops. We have to align policing and
a mental health insition. We've got to make sure that
(29:01):
a strong mayor can take on Trump when he's going
against New York City. We need somebody who has that experience,
not just pie in the sky promises. And I think
I positioned myself in that way.
Speaker 7 (29:13):
Metropolitan Transit Association, the congestion tax, what's your view there?
Speaker 10 (29:18):
Look, I think gets working. I think people want to
pay a little more to move the city.
Speaker 2 (29:25):
We have a.
Speaker 10 (29:27):
City government that depends on goods and services how they
get in and out.
Speaker 2 (29:32):
Of New York.
Speaker 10 (29:32):
But look, let's make let's make it clear we have
work to do. Congestion pricing helps some, but we have
to build out a Fireborough transportation plan, and we have
not done that yet. When I was supporting congestion pricing
back when Mike Bloomberg was mayor, we always said we
would look at Queen's and Staten Island and how we
can close those transit deserts. So this is just the
first step in a long transportation journey for New York City.
Speaker 3 (29:54):
Imagine that mister Bloomberg, of course of Bloomberg LP is
the founder of this radio station and signs my paycheck, you.
Speaker 2 (30:02):
Know, exactly once a year. Good morning, mister Bloomberg. Scott.
Speaker 10 (30:07):
I thought it'd be good to mention him.
Speaker 2 (30:08):
Just that's good.
Speaker 3 (30:09):
Yeah, and you mentioned him. I got to mention I'm
not in speaking terms with them. But that's a separate issue.
Scott Stringer. How can liberals be conservative and be anti crime?
I mean, there's a whole modern theology. The last election
was to me and eldamount of election. Long Island rose
up and screened we're afraid. How do guys like you
(30:31):
in a city that's become afraid support NYPD and support
a tougher crime view.
Speaker 10 (30:39):
Why do you think that people who are on the
liberal side of the equation, or even the conservative side
can't come together and recognize a problem when you see it.
Speaker 2 (30:50):
It's not me, That's what we've got in this now.
Speaker 10 (30:53):
But I got to tell you something. It's very easy
for me to look at the problem and say, hey,
we are having a trouble retaining the police officers we have.
You know that the young police officers are leaving the
police force in droves, and they're not retiring from policing.
They're actually going to Long Island or Mosquito. States like
Texas and Florida paid and well it's not so much
(31:13):
pay as it is. How do you create a work
life balance. You know, we've gone from six hundred and
fifty million dollars in overtime for policing to one point
three billion. We have the lowest head count in the
NYPD in generations. We're down to thirty three thousand cops.
So what should we do. It doesn't matter whether you're
a liberal conservative monitor. We've got to hire more cops.
That makes financial sense and also from a safety perspective,
(31:36):
makes sense. I want to put a cop on every
train during in those high crime areas.
Speaker 2 (31:39):
I want to.
Speaker 10 (31:40):
Align policing with a mental health initiative because we see
people languishing, suffering, dying on the streets when I take
my two kids on the subway most mornings to go
to school. You know what I see. I see what
I saw in the nineteen seventies, people languishing all the side.
Speaker 2 (31:54):
It must admit, well said, and it's actually true.
Speaker 3 (31:57):
Scott's tringer here with the primary in June, in an
election in November, of course, with his public services family
service over the years to New York City.
Speaker 6 (32:05):
Pulse reading, Scott, as were you to be elected, what
would be the first one.
Speaker 7 (32:10):
Hundred days of your administration?
Speaker 2 (32:12):
What would be the focus.
Speaker 10 (32:13):
We bring in a whole new government, we reform these
city agencies. We have a clarion call for people who
want to serve this city to come into this government
and do the people's business. That's the first step. Second,
I want to build the same kind of housing that
was built in a different generation called Mitchellama Housing MITCHELLAMA
two point zero. I want to take our thousand vacant
(32:34):
lots in the city and let's put to work for
affordable housing so families can come here, go to our
best universities, and stay here in a way that's affordable.
I want to put three thousand cops back on the street.
Want to make sure we align that program with a
mental health initiative. I want to make sure that we
have people taken the police test again. Eight thousand people
(32:55):
took the police test. Do you know how many people
took the sanitation test. There's something wrong here. We're just
not governing anymore. And also I want to make sure
that we bring back something called quality of life. We'll
have a Deputy Mayor for Quality of Life, will initiate
quality stat will break down the silos of all these
city agencies. I've ordered all of them. And I got
(33:16):
to tell you mental health has to start talking to
small business and vice versa. We got to get a
handle on this government. You need somebody who actually knows
how to govern. And as borough president for eight years,
as controller for eight years, I know the fiscal situation
in the city like the back of my hand. I'm
not over promising like others in this campaign. I'm just
gonna be me and be the life long New York.
(33:37):
I've always been to fix the city taxes.
Speaker 7 (33:41):
Pretty much everybody you walk into on the street say,
my taxes are too high.
Speaker 6 (33:45):
What do you say, what's your tax.
Speaker 10 (33:46):
Well, let's give people some value for those taxes. Let's
go back to the compact we've always had in this city,
which is if you come here, you pay a little more,
but you're going to get a clean city, not going
to have rats running around, garbage piled high. I mean
we've got rats walking upright right now. They've come up
to me on one occasion at night saying, hey, can
(34:07):
you beat Cormo. I mean, this is a real crisis.
People say, what am I paying for? What's the value
of my taxes? And we have to go back to
making people understand that what they get in return is
a real New York City that they'll never leave.
Speaker 3 (34:21):
What is your policy on immigration and migration and the
emotion here of people coming in that are new and troubled.
Speaker 10 (34:29):
But we've always had people come, like my grandparents came
to this city and came to this country. So let's
not start filtering out who comes and who doesn't. Let's
be very smart about this. Look, you bring gang members
in here, get them out. I'd be the first one
to stand and say, we want you out of here.
No guns, no violence, but for people who flee persecution,
(34:50):
for people, I mean, come on, we were so much
better than this, and we can. You know, good government
means we can absorb people. We can absorb crises have
to be a meltdown.
Speaker 2 (35:01):
I gotta ask you one final question, Harry.
Speaker 3 (35:03):
I think it's it's hugely emotional for everyone across this nation.
Speaker 2 (35:06):
There is an.
Speaker 3 (35:07):
Uproar among liberals over a generational shift, as identified by
Senator Schumer, over to something new. John Ferrell mentioned at
Glenn Young kein of Virginia. The Utah event of Senator
Sanders the other day helped me here with what the
new generation of Democrats look like.
Speaker 10 (35:26):
Look, we've always had a new generation of Democrats. You
mentioned the starting at the show, very very smart, right,
Bella Abzug was a new generation.
Speaker 3 (35:37):
You can't imagine a shock, and this mouthy woman was.
Speaker 2 (35:41):
It was the progress.
Speaker 10 (35:42):
And look, I was a twelve year old kid running
around campaigning with her during the Vietnam War. And you
know what happened. A few years into her term. The
US News and World Report, not the most liberal newspaper
or magazine, named her the number three most competent and
effective member of Congress. I'm am, I embrace the new generation,
(36:04):
but right now we need somebody in New York City
who represents vision, experience and competence. Make no mistake, this
is a moment where we have to rate the ship
so that the new generation can come in. Right, do
it all generations?
Speaker 3 (36:17):
Someone say you just describe Governor Cuomo. I mean, the
basic idea is he's been around, his father's iconic. You're
up against Cuomo. What's the biggest stetriment there?
Speaker 10 (36:26):
Look, he's chaotic, and he's not pro New York City,
and he doesn't like people, and he's running the worst
kind of campaign. That makes him unelectable in my mind,
but no one's going to realize that until June first.
And I hope to come back on this show as
your mayor elect and talk to you, especially about the
history of mayoral politics and what went wrong in his campaign.
But I am not feeling.
Speaker 2 (36:46):
Him disgustering to thank you so much for running here
for mayor.
Speaker 1 (36:55):
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
star It's seven am Eastern on Apple Coarclay and Android
Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch
us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the
Bloomberg terminal for their newspapers.
Speaker 2 (37:11):
To the astronaut, Lisa.
Speaker 11 (37:13):
Imagine I could dare to dream.
Speaker 5 (37:15):
Good Mardy, guys.
Speaker 11 (37:16):
So yeah, So the first thing I want to start
with is Netflix, and they have some ambitious goals.
Speaker 5 (37:22):
This was from the Wall Street Journal.
Speaker 11 (37:23):
They're saying that it hopes to achieve a one trillion
dollar market cap. Currently their cap is almost at about
four hundred billion. They want to also double its revenue
by twenty thirty. Executives have this goal of tripling Netflix
is operating in come by twenty thirty from ten billion
last year. So this was all in this annual business review,
meaning last last month that some people were in.
Speaker 5 (37:45):
They told this to the Wall Street Journal, so they
got the insight info on it.
Speaker 2 (37:49):
How do they do this? They raise?
Speaker 6 (37:50):
Well, that's what I was going to ask Lisa, how
did they do it? I mean, I mean, I think
they're going to raise the prices.
Speaker 7 (37:55):
I think they're going to ramp up, continue to ramp
up their advertising in newsps, gribers, in other parts.
Speaker 2 (38:01):
Of the ads within the video. Yeah, yeah, stards within
the video.
Speaker 6 (38:06):
Yeah, you can.
Speaker 11 (38:07):
Different tiers, so you can do the cheaper version and
you'll pay less, but you get the ads with it.
Speaker 7 (38:13):
I mean, four hundred billion market caps, stocks of five
percent this year, but up fifty percent.
Speaker 2 (38:19):
For Netflix.
Speaker 8 (38:20):
Oh, I don't know.
Speaker 10 (38:20):
I mean, I don't know.
Speaker 2 (38:21):
I don't know.
Speaker 6 (38:23):
Yeah, I don't know.
Speaker 2 (38:24):
I'm today.
Speaker 6 (38:25):
Ye, you just think I'm gonna go.
Speaker 5 (38:27):
But eighteen bucks?
Speaker 2 (38:28):
So what would you pay? Would you pay twenty four
ninety nine?
Speaker 12 (38:32):
No?
Speaker 6 (38:32):
I don't think.
Speaker 11 (38:33):
I think I would have to go for the commercials,
even though my kids are like, we don't do commercials.
Speaker 5 (38:37):
I don't care, I don't.
Speaker 11 (38:39):
I mean, So that's that iPhones, right, We've been hearing
different stories about how much the price of an Apple
iPhone can go up because of all this tariff uncertainty.
Business Insider actually went to all these Reddit posts people
talking about it, and they're saying what they're doing to
avoid these pricey upgrades save money on the device. For example,
(39:00):
some are doing the maintenance now right, they're they're doing
the upgrade now, But others are keeping up with the
battery life because that's what seems to go first. When
you have your phone. It's always like, oh, the battery
is dying. I need an upgrade, And they're saying, no,
you just need a new battery. So they're saying you
could do something like that. It's about ninety nine bucks
or so you can get the new battery.
Speaker 5 (39:19):
But something else they're doing.
Speaker 11 (39:21):
They're saying iPhones come with this limited one year warranty
that you might not even.
Speaker 5 (39:24):
Know that you have.
Speaker 11 (39:25):
So it has it, so go check it out. And
they also have this Apple Care plus thing. It's about
fourteen bucks a month.
Speaker 2 (39:32):
I do Apple Care.
Speaker 5 (39:33):
You do do the Apple Care. See, I haven't.
Speaker 6 (39:36):
Even heard of that.
Speaker 11 (39:36):
I have to get it today because the crews, the repairs,
the replacement.
Speaker 5 (39:40):
If you lose it.
Speaker 3 (39:41):
I mean if you get them on the phone, they
treat you differently than just the numbers, is what they would.
Speaker 11 (39:48):
Did you know you're paying fourteen dollars Worset.
Speaker 2 (39:51):
Apple in two weeks. We don't have a clue.
Speaker 10 (39:53):
I don't know.
Speaker 6 (39:54):
We have no clue where the economy is.
Speaker 3 (39:57):
You know, the uncertainty of your folks off the chart.
Good morning, Nick Booth out of Stanford one.
Speaker 6 (40:02):
What do you okay?
Speaker 11 (40:03):
You touched on this a little bit, all the talk
right Rory McRoy victory the Masters. I have the numbers
for you because you were talking about the ratings and
how much people watching it.
Speaker 5 (40:11):
CBS that it.
Speaker 11 (40:11):
Attracted twelve point seven million viewers Sunday. That's a thirty
three percent increase from last year when Scotti Sheffield he won.
It's the most watched match up, yes, since twenty.
Speaker 5 (40:22):
Eighteen Sheffield he played with them Scheffler Scheffler. Uh so
it was the most watched one, yes, twenty eighteen.
Speaker 11 (40:29):
So I mean this tournament really needs the boost too.
Then then the article kind of gets into that as well.
Speaker 7 (40:36):
Boy, I don't know what they changed, Yeah, one of
the other I think it might be the British I'm
not sure the Open Championship as they call it, not sure,
but they've got them spaced out pretty much throughout the year.
Speaker 2 (40:45):
Okay, is that all you got today?
Speaker 5 (40:47):
I did?
Speaker 3 (40:48):
Well?
Speaker 12 (40:48):
You know what you talked about the Blue Origin playing.
Speaker 2 (40:51):
Yeah? How that?
Speaker 6 (40:51):
Well?
Speaker 12 (40:52):
You know what, a lot of people have been giving
them some backlash, Gail King, Lauren Sanchez, a lot of
celebrities because they're saying it was commercial lies and it
is a commercial flight.
Speaker 2 (41:02):
It's for rich people. I get it. I'm not going
to pay one hundred and fifty thousand Base Bay.
Speaker 6 (41:07):
Why are they there?
Speaker 2 (41:09):
Why are they giving him garbage?
Speaker 11 (41:10):
I'm serious, because they're just saying that they were sellouts.
They also have the environmental factor for it. Does you
know it's no point just going up, going into the environment.
Speaker 3 (41:19):
We upset the desert of Texas when the capsule landed.
Speaker 1 (41:24):
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,
and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday,
seven to ten am Easter and on Bloomberg dot Com,
the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app.
You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube
(41:44):
and always on the Bloomberg terminal,
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