June 18, 2025 • 33 mins
Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.
Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyJune 18th, 2025
Featuring:
1) Jack Devine, founder at The Arkin Group, joins to discuss what US involvement in the Middle East conflict could look like and how US national security could weigh striking Iran. An overnight meeting between President Trump and his national security team has raised speculation that the US may join Israel's attacks against Iran. Trump has posted demands for Iran's "UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER" and threatened a possible strike against the country's leader, while Iran has reiterated its intention to respond with force if the US gets involved.
2) Michael Darda, Chief Economist at Roth Capital Partners, joins for a look ahead to the Fed and talks about the outlook for inflation and markets. Socks and bonds posted small gains as investors waited for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision and new economic forecasts. The Fed's latest projections for growth, unemployment, and interest rates will be closely watched.
3) Win Thin, Global Head: Markets Strategy Brown Brothers Harriman & Co., reacts to jobless claims and looks ahead to the Fed and potential for more inflation in the US. Fed policymakers face heightened uncertainty as geopolitical tension add to the inflation and labor market risks that are tied to the Trump administration’s tariff policies.
4) Leslie Palti-Guzman, founder at Energy Vista, talks about rapidly rising oil prices and if there will be any let up as Middle East fighting continues. Oil prices pulled back from a near five-month high, with Brent crude trading below $76 a barrel, as markets awaited news on US involvement in the Middle East conflict. Middle Eastern oil that loads outside the Persian Gulf and Malaysian crude are gaining popularity among Asian buyers due to the Israel-Iran conflict threatening the Strait of Hormuz.
5) Lisa Mateo joins with the latest headlines in newspapers across the US, including an NYT story on Dallas Cowboys cheerleaders getting a 400% pay raise and a WSJ story on private space stations racing to be the next popular travel destination.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg
Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern
on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.
Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch
(00:25):
us live on YouTube.
Speaker 2 (00:27):
Jack Divine is founder of the ark And Group and
is just definitive on the arc of our Cia, away
from the movies, away from all the different silliness is well,
and in fact some would say he was actually a
character taken by Philip Seymour Hoffman long ago, Jack Divine.
(00:49):
Because of limited time, questions are so important here. My
memory is our colossal misguests on the intelligence of the
Soviet Union. Do we have quality intelligence on Iran?
Speaker 3 (01:07):
Well, I hope. So let me put it that way.
We're at that point where push comes to shop. There's
no doubt in my mind that we have great technical coverage.
I also believe we have a force multiplier in Israel.
Israel has fantastic intelligence collection on Iran, There's no doubt
about it, and I therefore think that we're well positioned
(01:29):
to deal with the situation because of that intelligence, and
they've shared it amply because it's in their interest in
our interests. So I think we're squaring this one. This
is not a I don't see it. There are opportunities
for mistakes on this, for sure, but it won't be
because they don't have good intelligence.
Speaker 2 (01:47):
There's great discussion of the linkage of the Pentagon to
the White House. In the White House to the Pentagon.
Do you perceive a good use of our CIA intelligence
by President t.
Speaker 3 (02:02):
This is a controversial issue today because Tulsa Gabbertt went
in March, went down the hill and said that the
Iranians did not have a nuclear weapon and that was
three years before they could deliver it. And that was
raised with President Trump yesterday and he said he's really
not counting on that information. And so therefore I think
(02:24):
there is a disconnect. Then I guess I would have
a cautionary note for political leaders, and that is, if
you have a choice between the intelligence community that says
we're going to give you nothing but the truth, and
you have political leaders and other countries who have a
vested interest in presenting facts in a particular way, I
(02:45):
would recommend you stick close to those intelligence estimates. So
having said that, there are subset issues in this that
I could touch on, which is, for example, we have
to be careful and defense of net How's presentation of
the situation that is not underestimated. You cannot get this
(03:05):
wrong and say that it's not it's not a dangerous situation.
And I would add to that that I think we
spend a lot of time thinking about, oh, they won't
be able to deliver by a missile, and that's what
pushes it out a few years, and I think we
need to step back and realize that's not the only
way that nuclear weapons can be detonated and can be dangerous.
(03:28):
So there's an enrichment point, and once it gets that
Richmond point, then the starting gates open. You have to
take care of it.
Speaker 4 (03:36):
Jack. If the US does get involved here militarily, how
do you think the Iranians will respond?
Speaker 3 (03:43):
I would not want to be in the Iranian leadership's position.
It's like the featherweight fighter getting in with the heavyweight
champion of the world and have never had a fight.
And I think that's what you're looking at. And you
can dance around the ring and jump up in the
ropes and you're going to get knocked out, carried out,
of the ring in the first round. How do you
defend yourself if you have no air defense? I mean,
(04:06):
if there is no way to prevent your adversary, and
that would be in this case Israel and ourselves. This
thing can only end one way, and I think the
guy tools have a great struggle with it. That is,
the President United States is saying unconditional surrender that has
very specific meanings, and I think that's where we are.
(04:26):
And I think for the Iranians the CounterPunch, they might
get one in, but all hell will break loose after that.
They have nothing to stop the US from flattening, and
the Israel without using nuclear weapons, just flattening. They have
no defense. So I think they may turn out to
be a little more prudent than they're hopeful, more prudent
(04:48):
than their verbiage.
Speaker 5 (04:50):
Jack.
Speaker 4 (04:51):
I guess one of the initial talking points is that,
I guess the FOURD down nuclear site deeply buried under
the ground. Does the US have the ordinance to take
that out?
Speaker 3 (05:02):
All the experts have been practicing this for years. I
shouldn't say tens of years, but I mean, you're sort
of over the last decade they've been developing the GBU
fifty seven and that has the capacity of but not
a single shot. This is going to take multiple shots
at four to oh to destroy it. But I think
(05:24):
we have the capability. Unfortunately, we are the only ones
that have it, and we only have They have the
one platform, the B two that can deliver it. So
I think if I were sitting in Tehran, I would
say goodbye.
Speaker 5 (05:37):
Four to oh.
Speaker 2 (05:38):
Okay.
Speaker 3 (05:38):
I think that's where we are. It's going and you
know it's not going to be pretty. I think it's
the only alternative. I think I've read, and I know
I've read, but that the Israelis believe that there's other alternatives,
and if there were, I think we would have said,
why don't you use them. I think it's either this
or you let them keep developing nuclear weapons. So I
(05:59):
think it's we're looking at the endgame here, Jack.
Speaker 2 (06:02):
Very importantly, one time for one more question. We'd love
to get you on in the coming days and really
appreciate your public service for over fifty years. The CIA.
We had on the crown Prince in exile, the son
of the Shah yesterday this my Global Headlines. Thank you,
Danny Berger and Lisa Bramwitz for that, What does I
(06:23):
mean you have talked about a partition of Iran, a
partition of Iraq. What happens to the greater Persia if
this all falls apart? Is it every big nation for themselves?
Speaker 3 (06:41):
In some degree? We're in a world where it's every
nation for itself, and then you try and find some
to build allies. But let me hit what I think
is at the core of the shah sons approach and
not approach the fact that he's on the scene, and
that is the regime change. You know, the question is
(07:01):
is Israel going to stop at fourdoh or are they
going to push for a regime change. This is an
issue that our policymakers are struggling with today as well.
I want to be cautionary. I mean, I see the
wisdom of taking an out for one way or the other.
In the end, I hope. I wish it hadn't been
with America, but I've made peace with that regime change.
(07:22):
And my experience over all those years that you refer
to is analysts political leaders underestimate how people put up
with downtrodden conditions to such an extent, and they can't
believe that, Oh if you're an American, you'd rise up
(07:43):
in arms. So they overestimate the prospects for regime change.
And I'm afraid that's where we may be here today.
I don't see it. There's a lot of angry people
with the Shaw, not with the show, with the Ayatola,
but there's no armed group inside the country. There's no
indication right fourth, there's no split at the very top
(08:03):
where you can have a palace coupe. So I think
that's the dangerous warders here that we have to void.
Speaker 2 (08:09):
Jack Divine, thank you so much. Just public service with
the CoA, the ARC and group for decades.
Speaker 1 (08:19):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live
weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern. Listen on
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watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 2 (08:31):
Usually anticipated this day, Michael Darta joins us down from
ourth capitol. Michael, let me start at the nominal level.
It probably won't come up in the press conference, but
is the animal spirit there or in risk of lessening?
Can we generate with inflation four or even five percent growth?
Speaker 6 (08:50):
Well, Tom, I think we're seeing a little bit of
slowing around the edges in terms of the nominal economy.
So if we look at some of the tracking estimates
for Q two, real final sales to the private sector
look like they're sub two percent now, and we've had
just over two years of three percent average growth, and
(09:12):
so nominal has been up there, you know, five percent plus,
which is you know, quite strong relative to the average
of the last business cycle that was closer to four
and then obviously during the high inflation period twenty twenty
one twenty twenty two, we have double digit nominal growth.
So the FED is slowed, not the nominal economy. It's
(09:33):
brought inflation, you know, pretty close to target, but we
don't want to go too far. And then you know,
worry about you know, recessionary risks which have been out there,
and you know, obviously the economy has divided those concerns
over the course of the last two years. But there
is some slowing here. And if nominal is about to
(09:54):
run sub four percent, FED policy rate probably shouldn't be
above four.
Speaker 4 (10:00):
So what we're not seeing, Michael, at least not yet,
is inflation. Is there a scenario where maybe some of
these tariffs are maybe taking in the margin of certain
of corporate America versus maybe the pocketbooks of consumers.
Speaker 6 (10:16):
Yeah, that's really been quite a surprise with these benign
inflation figures over the last few months. So part of
it could be a little bit of a delay. Part
of it is that there's a lot of moving parts here.
Even with the recent geopolitically driven upward pressure and energy prices,
we're still flatish year over year on crude, industrial metals
(10:38):
are down year over year. Inflation expectations in the TIPS
indexed bond market, you really haven't moved at all. They're
at quite low levels consistent with price stability. So we're
not seeing a big tariff fallout so far, and that's
actually quite good news for the FED because I think
(10:58):
that gives the FLMs more flexibility to ease policy, you know,
in the event that we do seemore slowing ahead. But
you're right, I mean, the question is, you know, profit margins, right,
I mean, equity multiples are not low, so you know,
we could you know, we're probably not looking at really
strong earnings growth this year, but markets are really optimistic
(11:21):
over a multi year horizon that will have pretty good
earnings growth.
Speaker 2 (11:24):
And you're suggesting that'll be that'll be a disappointing event, right.
Speaker 6 (11:30):
Well, you know, Tom, I'll have to say, I mean
I was quite skeptical of this, you know, whole AI revolution.
I thought it was a bit overhyped and over baked.
But I've kind of changed my view on that. And
this is just anecdotal, but just through personal use of
these AI interfaces, I mean, there has been a vast
and breath taking improvement in what this technology can do,
(11:54):
you know, whether we're dealing with health and wellness from
a personal perspective or your favorite macroeconomic modeling. I mean,
it's it's like having fifty research assistants at your disposal
and you don't even have to be nice to them.
Speaker 5 (12:11):
So what is exactly just for me, exactly save this?
Speaker 4 (12:16):
Paul Michael, What do you think the FED should say today?
What should fit Chairman Jpow's message be today?
Speaker 5 (12:22):
Do you think?
Speaker 6 (12:24):
Well, you know, I would love if the Chairman would
focus on bond market inflation expectations.
Speaker 2 (12:32):
I think those are.
Speaker 6 (12:32):
More important, and some of the survey data is a
bit divergent. You know, we've seen a lot of upward
pressure from the U of MISH data, but not so
much out of the New York Fed. But I really
believe these indexed bond spreads are the key. And if
we remember back to last summer, when it looked like
the labor market was really losing steam in a dramatic fashion,
(12:55):
those expectations started to tank, but they recovered when the
FED started to lower policy rates. So the FED has
just nailed it here. I mean, they've really pulled a
rabbit out of a hat in terms of raising rates,
sufficiently holding them there, and then seemingly cutting them just
at the right time. Even the pause, which some think,
you know was political based on the timing of the election,
(13:18):
I think is perfectly justified based on the macro data
and the behavior of bond market inflation expectations. So I
would love if Fed Shair Poul would give some additional
credence there, But I won't be holding my breath for that.
I think he's going to hold it close to the basket.
We'll see what these updated projections say, but I'd be
(13:39):
kind of surprised if the FED was the Fed in
the in the market expectations were seriously far apart at
this point. I think they're fairly close.
Speaker 5 (13:47):
Pa.
Speaker 2 (13:48):
I'll get one. We're in here with Michael Darta, but
I just went to Google Gemini Elboy and I typed
a linear rational expectations model, which Darta was expert at
the difference equations of when he was at Wisconsin as well,
And just like he says, it lays out an incredible
six paragraph summary including DSGE models. And we have Clarita
(14:10):
today on the ferryating. I mean, you're right, Michael, it's
just it's jaw dropping what they're doing.
Speaker 5 (14:16):
Michael.
Speaker 4 (14:16):
Do you think this US economy can have I mean
it appears that we've a we've had that soft landing.
The question I think for a lot of people is
in a world of higher trade tariffs, does that threaten
that soft landing at all? What's what's your GDP view here?
Speaker 6 (14:33):
Yeah, I think we're in a trend growth economy and
that is by definition of soft landing. But at the margin,
the risks are probably to the downside here. You know,
you guys were just talking about the messy real estate
market and it's been messy for a while. But you
know the risk with these tariffs is that we're self
(14:54):
imposing adverse supply shops in an economy that is really
benefit from a weakening of the supply side, right. I mean,
you know, early in the pandemic recovery, we were getting
negative productivity growth for about two years. Over the last
two years we've seen much better numbers close to or
above two percent. And that doesn't really even tell the
(15:16):
AI story yet. That was really just a rebound from
the pandemic oriented his stores. So you don't want to
do anything that interferes with the supply side, and the
terriffs are going to be a headwind there. I think
the AI story is going to be much more powerful
over the longer term. So as long as the FED
doesn't fall drastically behind the curve here, Paul that I
(15:39):
think you know that you can have good economic outcomes.
Speaker 2 (15:42):
So, Michael dart I got a run in the war.
Thank you so much on this FED day for joining us.
Mister Darta is with Roth Capital.
Speaker 1 (15:49):
Look, this is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each
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Speaker 2 (16:07):
This is a joy and hugely anticipated win. Thin is
out of the Columbia Georgetown brandeis axis and particularly Columbia University.
He's global out of market strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman.
But he is definitive on the Pacific RIM. Wait, let's
just start, doctor Finn with the basics of the Pacific Rim.
(16:29):
Not not your Burma, but you know, North Singapore and
on up north. The currencies are screaming. Taiwan dollar stronger,
sing dollar almost down, New Reason strength as well. It's asymmetric.
Is this about dollar weakness or is this about Pacific
RIM success?
Speaker 7 (16:50):
First of all, Tom, Paul, Lisa, thanks for having me.
It's always a pleasure. I would say there's a lot
of moving parts. Much of it I think is to
all weakness, but there's also as you know, there's rumblings
out of these trade talks that the US would like
these currencies to be allowed to strengthen. We've heard that
out of Taiwan, We've heard that out of Korea. It's
(17:13):
been reported and denied. But you know, I think where
there's smoke, this fire, so there's it fits into the
underlying sort of market view that this administration wants a
weaker dollar pretty much across the board, and it's part
and parts of.
Speaker 5 (17:26):
The whole trade talks. You know.
Speaker 7 (17:28):
That's not to say, you know, these these countries aren't
doing well.
Speaker 5 (17:31):
Of course they are.
Speaker 7 (17:32):
There's some issues with obviously with China and supply chains
and things like that, but overall, the fundamental story remains
quite solid.
Speaker 5 (17:38):
So these currencies could strengthen, especially.
Speaker 7 (17:42):
If this if this dollar weakness picks up after today's
what I think will be the expected dubbish hold.
Speaker 4 (17:47):
So when what do you make of this US dollar
We've seen after the initial sell off and risk assets
or this year on Liberation Day we saw that, I
don't know, the US equity markets kind of retrace all
the selloffs, but we've not seen a rebound in US dollar.
Is just just a normal ten percent pullback on a
on a rich currency. Is there something else going on?
Speaker 5 (18:09):
Well, Paul, you know, if you you know, asked me
at the beginning of the year, you know, I was,
you know, dollible coming this year.
Speaker 7 (18:15):
We had sort of the economy fire all cylinders, the
FED hawkish et cetera, et cetera, deregulation, but really to
your point, liberation.
Speaker 5 (18:22):
Liberation Day was really game changer.
Speaker 7 (18:25):
It was it was I think the realization by the
market is that the policy making out of this administration
was unpredictable. Uh and really and to me unexplainable, inexplicable.
And I think it's been a lot of confidence in
the dollar.
Speaker 5 (18:41):
Since then.
Speaker 7 (18:42):
We had so much back and forth on terrfs, on
fiscal policy. It's it's really been, you know, a sort
of game changer since April second, and then April ninth, Uh,
the tariff announcements.
Speaker 5 (18:54):
So yeah, I've changed.
Speaker 7 (18:55):
I think the dollars is in for a weaker spell,
especially again with the US comomy star on SHOs and cracks.
That's why I think the FED is going to deliver
a dubbish hole today. Tariff uncertain continues, fiscal uncertain continues,
so all the elements are there for a week of dollar.
Speaker 2 (19:11):
Is a FED speaks today in the press conference on
all Doctor Thinn. One of the things here is everything's
unilateral discussion. The president, let's make a deal. Tim O'Brien
coming up in a big folks or maybe bilateral and
all of your academics is it's a multilateral world. Are
we just going to see them shift their US exports
(19:33):
through Singapore. Dare I say, through your Burma? I mean,
are they just going to conduit their exports through other geographies?
Speaker 5 (19:41):
Well, I do you know? That's good question, Tom.
Speaker 7 (19:43):
I do know that the US is an alert for
giants or sort of re export through Vietnam and sort
of other proxies.
Speaker 5 (19:51):
It can be done, but it'll be difficult.
Speaker 7 (19:53):
What I think to me is get back to this
bigger story about the dollars that the US is really
is pulling inwards. It's becoming they call it America first,
it's whatever you want to call it. It's isolationists. It's
leaving a vacuum for other countries. I think China will
will so exerts a greater influence, especially in the Pacific
Rim in Southeast Asia. We have eur Zone becoming a
(20:17):
bit more cohesive and perhaps picking up the ball over
in the European sphere. So you know, it's a long
you know this, We could talk about this for hours,
but in seat of geopolitics, we.
Speaker 5 (20:26):
Could be coming into this sort of multipolar world.
Speaker 7 (20:28):
Which is doll The US really has pulled back and
allowing others to come into this vacuum. Again, that's part
and parts of the weeker dollar I think as well.
Speaker 2 (20:35):
Marcus move the yield comes in in two basis points
four point three six percent. We have economic data and
housing starts. There was a bit of a positive revision,
but there's a grim statistic and housing starts. In building
permits here the survey negative zero point eight percent, round
it one percent, negative one percent. It came in at
(20:57):
negative nine point eight percent, found it negative ten percent,
huge miss and confirmed with building permits as well, which
were to be flat. The survey was zero point zero
and they came in negative two percent as well. Claims
pretty much on track is well. Four week moving average
(21:20):
lifts up from two hundred and forty one thousand up
to two hundred and forty five thousand. So there's the
economic data. Maybe it doesn't matter in a FED day,
but it's there. And again that we'll be there at
one point thirty giving you the FED press conference as such, Paul.
Speaker 4 (21:36):
When we saw earlier in the year, when there was
this vul volatility in the in the US markets, a
movement of capital over to Europe, particularly equities, people kind
of buying into these European equities and now we've got
European indites doing better than US. Is that simply a
short term trade or is that something more fundamental?
Speaker 5 (21:57):
Do you think? Yeah, Paul, I think, uh, there's a
million dollar question.
Speaker 7 (22:02):
My gut feelings, it's it's it's a it's a serious
rotation out of the US. Again, everyone was was long
US equities dollar at the beginning of this year, but
since the year began, we've got we had some good
news out of Europe, the fiscal sort of developments in Germany,
some improving sentiments in the case out of most of Europe,
(22:24):
at the same time that the US is starting to
soften up. So I think it's it's a cyclical shift.
I wouldn't say it's structural. I think it's too early
to say, but certainly a cyclical shift shift rotation from
the out of the US into the into the.
Speaker 5 (22:36):
Europe and other areas.
Speaker 7 (22:38):
And that's reflected in the in the equity market app
performance as.
Speaker 5 (22:41):
Well as the currency performance.
Speaker 7 (22:42):
A weaker dollar, you know, right now, it's sort of
sell sell a dollar by everything else. And again I
don't see anything on the on the survive and change
that very much, Thank you so much.
Speaker 2 (22:51):
Whin sents with Brown Brothers Harriman.
Speaker 1 (22:58):
This is the Bloomberg Surveiller Podcast. Listen live each weekday
starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto
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Speaker 2 (23:12):
Fosio Paulta Guzman joins right now to say she's with
Energy Vista. Barely describes her expertise and something we don't
talk enough about because Paul and I flunk the physics
of LNG liquefied natural gas. Her research note is so
valuable we protect the copyright of our guests. Get her
note from Energy Vista. Leslie thrilled to have you in
(23:35):
here for a brief at today. What are they thinking about?
And Cutter They're not worried about the World Cup right now?
Am I right? They own Arab leng and are they
at risk because of this war?
Speaker 8 (23:49):
So I think Katari is one of the most vulnerable
player right now in the region because it depends on
the strait of hormones to evacuate all its anti shipments.
That's one second. We had a strike from Israel on
sasparse number fourteen a few days ago, which is a
(24:09):
share field between Katar and Iran, although it's the further
away from Katar, right, and it's a domestic it's a
field for domestic consumption within Iran. It shows the capabilities
and the highest you know, we're at the highest place
in terms of tension for potential infrastructure hit in the region.
Speaker 2 (24:28):
That Morse sat in your chair there, yeah, two days ago.
I believe it was a giant and geopolitics and analysis
of this, and he said the media is missing the
LNG study, the natural gas study briefest now on the
fragility and the outcome of a busted LNG market if
(24:49):
this war expands.
Speaker 8 (24:52):
So, Katari is one of the world's largest LNG exporter
around the world. The US is the first one, Katari
the second one. Katari is standing most of its gas
right now to Asia. Eighty percent of its energy goes
to Asia, twenty five percent to China. So any major
disruption of Katar is a major heat for the market.
(25:16):
Less so right now for Europe because since the Hussy
have been relatilessly attacking shipments in the Red Sea, Katari
is you know, only maybe exporting one bcm a month
to Europe, but the basically the disruptions would be mostly
(25:37):
for Asia, and this is what this would be a
major heat. I would say that we're in a very
soft place right now in terms of demand in the
global gas market. There is ample supply coming online, but
still you will not you will notice it with pricing.
Speaker 5 (25:55):
You know.
Speaker 8 (25:55):
What I would say is that there are still many
unknown in this. In the coming days, the oil and
gas market will brace for further impact in terms of
shipping disruptions and potential further attacks on energy infrastructure if
things escalate.
Speaker 4 (26:14):
What are the shipping companies telling you about how they're
preparing for I mean, God forbid the straight of Her moves,
there'll be some tension there. But even other shipping lanes
that are critical to the movement of liquid loquified natural
gas and crude oil.
Speaker 5 (26:29):
What are they telling you?
Speaker 8 (26:30):
So most of the shipping companies right now are avoiding
as much as possible the East Mediterranean, the Suiss Gulf,
the Red Sea. They were already avoiding it, and the
Persian Gulf because we've seen some infrastructure hits in the
(26:51):
East Mediterranean. The High Far High Farm refinery was a hit.
Now the Levayettan field in Israel is shut down as precaution.
We've seen also, as I was mentioning earlier, some hits
on other infrastructure. But I would say that so far
we've seen restrain regarding energy infrastructure. That could change if
(27:13):
things go south.
Speaker 2 (27:15):
We're running out of time. This is too important a question.
I believe the President was in Qatar. I believe he
was shopping a new air force. One. I guess we're
making nice, We're doing the World Cup, whatever the moment is,
and Qatar is I guess the path of conversation from
Tehran to the Western world. What will you listen for
(27:37):
from Qatar and from Tehran in that communication to the
Western world.
Speaker 8 (27:43):
So it's just three scenarios right now. One is the
US joined the fight and want to finish the job
because both I think the US and Israel understand that
since October seven, the head of the octopus is Iran
and nuclear power in Iran would be too dangerous for
the world. Second is the nuclear talks potentially what Qatar
(28:06):
would prefer, meaning we go back to the table, we negotiate,
and it would be a safe the face strategy for
Iran and say basically the only option to save the
region maybe now, and third would be total rog going
rogum and maybe going with nuclear breakout with whatever is
(28:27):
left of nuclear or going after many assets from the
US and energy, infrastructure and neighbors.
Speaker 2 (28:33):
Thank you so much, really appreciate this. A senior non
resident Fellow the Center for Strategic in International Studies, lestic
politic Gosman joins US from Energy Vista.
Speaker 1 (28:43):
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
starting at seven am Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android
Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen
live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,
Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 2 (29:00):
Well, can Lisa top what she did yesterday on news?
Speaker 4 (29:02):
I it was pretty solid, So she's got a good
line up here today.
Speaker 2 (29:06):
Oh I like it.
Speaker 5 (29:06):
I like the leads.
Speaker 2 (29:07):
You get a pre email. I don't get a email.
Speaker 4 (29:10):
Yeah, I can approval, please you and Paul brief me
on the newspapers.
Speaker 9 (29:15):
Okay, we're starting with the Dallas Foy cheerleaders.
Speaker 6 (29:18):
That's how I fall like sid Oh.
Speaker 9 (29:19):
Really, yes, they got a big pay raise. I like
this story A roughly four hundred percent increase for the
twenty twenty five season. It was revealed episode seven they
have the second season of the Netflix docu series. They
have one about the show. It's called America's Sweethearts Big Hit.
I actually watched a few episodes out of a full disclosure.
There wasn't any information about what they were making before
(29:42):
how much they're going to be paid under the new deal.
But The New York Times did speak to a former
cheerleader who said in twenty twenty four, it was her
fifth year in the squad. She made about fifteen dollars
an hour, five hundred dollars for each game appearance. So
sometimes they're saying the mascots make more than the cheerleaders.
But what's still missing is health insurance. But what they're
(30:03):
saying is that it's really putting it out there. So now,
because of this increase, cheerleaders from other teams could be
set for an inert time job.
Speaker 2 (30:10):
I mean, there's what sixteen games, eighteen games?
Speaker 4 (30:13):
Yeah, I don't know. I think they get paid by
the game, right, they.
Speaker 9 (30:16):
Get paid by the game and per hour, like.
Speaker 6 (30:20):
Have full time jobs.
Speaker 9 (30:21):
And that's what you see in the series is how
they're all struggling, like they're working this job, working that job,
and doing all this stuff just to be a part
of the art.
Speaker 5 (30:32):
Cheerleader.
Speaker 9 (30:33):
Ever, next you go, all right, since we mentioned that
Netflix series, I want to stick with Netflix. And this
is interesting. Is it kind of a sign of what's
to come? Because Netflix struck a deal with to show
linear TV for the first time. It's going to add
live television channels shows from French broadcaster t F one.
(30:53):
So what French customers will be able to see is
live feeds, including sports from TF one's channels. They'll be
able to stream their shows on demand, dramas, reality shows
like The Voice that they.
Speaker 2 (31:04):
Show the French signal will be free on Netflix.
Speaker 6 (31:09):
Correct.
Speaker 9 (31:10):
There's no word though on how subscription advertising revenues are
going to be shared between the two companies, or how
much Netflix if they paid for like an upfront fee
for the content. But it's kind of a start to
something interesting.
Speaker 4 (31:23):
Most of the news you had earlier a week or
so ago that in the May month of May, streaming
viewership exceeded that a broadcasting cable television in the US.
So that's the trend right before us.
Speaker 9 (31:34):
So would we see that here, yes you will.
Speaker 1 (31:37):
Yeah.
Speaker 9 (31:38):
Interesting.
Speaker 2 (31:38):
Interesting.
Speaker 9 (31:40):
And the last one is about private space stations. They
could become the next travel destination. So instead of going
globally to France or wherever you want to go, you
can go to space maybe pretty soon. There are a
lot of companies looking to build these facilities. Making them
is pretty expensive, so the Wall Street Journal kind of
listed it. Some of them, like Axiom spaces Station could
(32:02):
someday hosts as many as eight people, five different modules
you can orbit above the Earth. It's going to cost
them about three billion dollars oh to make.
Speaker 6 (32:10):
And then you have just.
Speaker 9 (32:10):
Besos' Blue Origin their mind a station cord orbital reef
that could be coming orbital reef. Yes, if you would
like to stay, NASA says SpaceX is also investigating using
its starship as a possible low Earth orbit destination too,
And then they're star Lab. They're back by Voyager technology.
So it's all these companies that are.
Speaker 5 (32:30):
Running the mode.
Speaker 2 (32:31):
I mean they go up, they don't go up to orbit,
I mean, excuse me, kind of, it's kind of it's
exactly right. But now they're going to go into orbit
on a space station.
Speaker 4 (32:41):
And stay for a vacation vacation.
Speaker 9 (32:44):
Yeah, it's not just tours, of course, it's also you know,
different astronauts and scientists and research and things like that.
But it could be open to tourists as well.
Speaker 2 (32:54):
Okay, thank you. I'm just trying to thank a lease
audition for the Giants. Yeah, you're leading this fall.
Speaker 9 (33:01):
Yep, the Jets or the Jets do have a good
flight spud.
Speaker 2 (33:04):
There, Lisa Matello, thank you so much. That is the newspapers.
Speaker 1 (33:09):
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,
and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday,
seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the
iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You
can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and
(33:30):
always on the Bloomberg terminal
Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg
Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern
on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.
Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch
(00:25):
us live on YouTube.
Speaker 2 (00:27):
Jack Divine is founder of the ark And Group and
is just definitive on the arc of our Cia, away
from the movies, away from all the different silliness is well,
and in fact some would say he was actually a
character taken by Philip Seymour Hoffman long ago, Jack Divine.
(00:49):
Because of limited time, questions are so important here. My
memory is our colossal misguests on the intelligence of the
Soviet Union. Do we have quality intelligence on Iran?
Speaker 3 (01:07):
Well, I hope. So let me put it that way.
We're at that point where push comes to shop. There's
no doubt in my mind that we have great technical coverage.
I also believe we have a force multiplier in Israel.
Israel has fantastic intelligence collection on Iran, There's no doubt
about it, and I therefore think that we're well positioned
(01:29):
to deal with the situation because of that intelligence, and
they've shared it amply because it's in their interest in
our interests. So I think we're squaring this one. This
is not a I don't see it. There are opportunities
for mistakes on this, for sure, but it won't be
because they don't have good intelligence.
Speaker 2 (01:47):
There's great discussion of the linkage of the Pentagon to
the White House. In the White House to the Pentagon.
Do you perceive a good use of our CIA intelligence
by President t.
Speaker 3 (02:02):
This is a controversial issue today because Tulsa Gabbertt went
in March, went down the hill and said that the
Iranians did not have a nuclear weapon and that was
three years before they could deliver it. And that was
raised with President Trump yesterday and he said he's really
not counting on that information. And so therefore I think
(02:24):
there is a disconnect. Then I guess I would have
a cautionary note for political leaders, and that is, if
you have a choice between the intelligence community that says
we're going to give you nothing but the truth, and
you have political leaders and other countries who have a
vested interest in presenting facts in a particular way, I
(02:45):
would recommend you stick close to those intelligence estimates. So
having said that, there are subset issues in this that
I could touch on, which is, for example, we have
to be careful and defense of net How's presentation of
the situation that is not underestimated. You cannot get this
(03:05):
wrong and say that it's not it's not a dangerous situation.
And I would add to that that I think we
spend a lot of time thinking about, oh, they won't
be able to deliver by a missile, and that's what
pushes it out a few years, and I think we
need to step back and realize that's not the only
way that nuclear weapons can be detonated and can be dangerous.
(03:28):
So there's an enrichment point, and once it gets that
Richmond point, then the starting gates open. You have to
take care of it.
Speaker 4 (03:36):
Jack. If the US does get involved here militarily, how
do you think the Iranians will respond?
Speaker 3 (03:43):
I would not want to be in the Iranian leadership's position.
It's like the featherweight fighter getting in with the heavyweight
champion of the world and have never had a fight.
And I think that's what you're looking at. And you
can dance around the ring and jump up in the
ropes and you're going to get knocked out, carried out,
of the ring in the first round. How do you
defend yourself if you have no air defense? I mean,
(04:06):
if there is no way to prevent your adversary, and
that would be in this case Israel and ourselves. This
thing can only end one way, and I think the
guy tools have a great struggle with it. That is,
the President United States is saying unconditional surrender that has
very specific meanings, and I think that's where we are.
(04:26):
And I think for the Iranians the CounterPunch, they might
get one in, but all hell will break loose after that.
They have nothing to stop the US from flattening, and
the Israel without using nuclear weapons, just flattening. They have
no defense. So I think they may turn out to
be a little more prudent than they're hopeful, more prudent
(04:48):
than their verbiage.
Speaker 5 (04:50):
Jack.
Speaker 4 (04:51):
I guess one of the initial talking points is that,
I guess the FOURD down nuclear site deeply buried under
the ground. Does the US have the ordinance to take
that out?
Speaker 3 (05:02):
All the experts have been practicing this for years. I
shouldn't say tens of years, but I mean, you're sort
of over the last decade they've been developing the GBU
fifty seven and that has the capacity of but not
a single shot. This is going to take multiple shots
at four to oh to destroy it. But I think
(05:24):
we have the capability. Unfortunately, we are the only ones
that have it, and we only have They have the
one platform, the B two that can deliver it. So
I think if I were sitting in Tehran, I would
say goodbye.
Speaker 5 (05:37):
Four to oh.
Speaker 2 (05:38):
Okay.
Speaker 3 (05:38):
I think that's where we are. It's going and you
know it's not going to be pretty. I think it's
the only alternative. I think I've read, and I know
I've read, but that the Israelis believe that there's other alternatives,
and if there were, I think we would have said,
why don't you use them. I think it's either this
or you let them keep developing nuclear weapons. So I
(05:59):
think it's we're looking at the endgame here, Jack.
Speaker 2 (06:02):
Very importantly, one time for one more question. We'd love
to get you on in the coming days and really
appreciate your public service for over fifty years. The CIA.
We had on the crown Prince in exile, the son
of the Shah yesterday this my Global Headlines. Thank you,
Danny Berger and Lisa Bramwitz for that, What does I
(06:23):
mean you have talked about a partition of Iran, a
partition of Iraq. What happens to the greater Persia if
this all falls apart? Is it every big nation for themselves?
Speaker 3 (06:41):
In some degree? We're in a world where it's every
nation for itself, and then you try and find some
to build allies. But let me hit what I think
is at the core of the shah sons approach and
not approach the fact that he's on the scene, and
that is the regime change. You know, the question is
(07:01):
is Israel going to stop at fourdoh or are they
going to push for a regime change. This is an
issue that our policymakers are struggling with today as well.
I want to be cautionary. I mean, I see the
wisdom of taking an out for one way or the other.
In the end, I hope. I wish it hadn't been
with America, but I've made peace with that regime change.
(07:22):
And my experience over all those years that you refer
to is analysts political leaders underestimate how people put up
with downtrodden conditions to such an extent, and they can't
believe that, Oh if you're an American, you'd rise up
(07:43):
in arms. So they overestimate the prospects for regime change.
And I'm afraid that's where we may be here today.
I don't see it. There's a lot of angry people
with the Shaw, not with the show, with the Ayatola,
but there's no armed group inside the country. There's no
indication right fourth, there's no split at the very top
(08:03):
where you can have a palace coupe. So I think
that's the dangerous warders here that we have to void.
Speaker 2 (08:09):
Jack Divine, thank you so much. Just public service with
the CoA, the ARC and group for decades.
Speaker 1 (08:19):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live
weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern. Listen on
Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app, or
watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 2 (08:31):
Usually anticipated this day, Michael Darta joins us down from
ourth capitol. Michael, let me start at the nominal level.
It probably won't come up in the press conference, but
is the animal spirit there or in risk of lessening?
Can we generate with inflation four or even five percent growth?
Speaker 6 (08:50):
Well, Tom, I think we're seeing a little bit of
slowing around the edges in terms of the nominal economy.
So if we look at some of the tracking estimates
for Q two, real final sales to the private sector
look like they're sub two percent now, and we've had
just over two years of three percent average growth, and
(09:12):
so nominal has been up there, you know, five percent plus,
which is you know, quite strong relative to the average
of the last business cycle that was closer to four
and then obviously during the high inflation period twenty twenty
one twenty twenty two, we have double digit nominal growth.
So the FED is slowed, not the nominal economy. It's
(09:33):
brought inflation, you know, pretty close to target, but we
don't want to go too far. And then you know,
worry about you know, recessionary risks which have been out there,
and you know, obviously the economy has divided those concerns
over the course of the last two years. But there
is some slowing here. And if nominal is about to
(09:54):
run sub four percent, FED policy rate probably shouldn't be
above four.
Speaker 4 (10:00):
So what we're not seeing, Michael, at least not yet,
is inflation. Is there a scenario where maybe some of
these tariffs are maybe taking in the margin of certain
of corporate America versus maybe the pocketbooks of consumers.
Speaker 6 (10:16):
Yeah, that's really been quite a surprise with these benign
inflation figures over the last few months. So part of
it could be a little bit of a delay. Part
of it is that there's a lot of moving parts here.
Even with the recent geopolitically driven upward pressure and energy prices,
we're still flatish year over year on crude, industrial metals
(10:38):
are down year over year. Inflation expectations in the TIPS
indexed bond market, you really haven't moved at all. They're
at quite low levels consistent with price stability. So we're
not seeing a big tariff fallout so far, and that's
actually quite good news for the FED because I think
(10:58):
that gives the FLMs more flexibility to ease policy, you know,
in the event that we do seemore slowing ahead. But
you're right, I mean, the question is, you know, profit margins, right,
I mean, equity multiples are not low, so you know,
we could you know, we're probably not looking at really
strong earnings growth this year, but markets are really optimistic
(11:21):
over a multi year horizon that will have pretty good
earnings growth.
Speaker 2 (11:24):
And you're suggesting that'll be that'll be a disappointing event, right.
Speaker 6 (11:30):
Well, you know, Tom, I'll have to say, I mean
I was quite skeptical of this, you know, whole AI revolution.
I thought it was a bit overhyped and over baked.
But I've kind of changed my view on that. And
this is just anecdotal, but just through personal use of
these AI interfaces, I mean, there has been a vast
and breath taking improvement in what this technology can do,
(11:54):
you know, whether we're dealing with health and wellness from
a personal perspective or your favorite macroeconomic modeling. I mean,
it's it's like having fifty research assistants at your disposal
and you don't even have to be nice to them.
Speaker 5 (12:11):
So what is exactly just for me, exactly save this?
Speaker 4 (12:16):
Paul Michael, What do you think the FED should say today?
What should fit Chairman Jpow's message be today?
Speaker 5 (12:22):
Do you think?
Speaker 6 (12:24):
Well, you know, I would love if the Chairman would
focus on bond market inflation expectations.
Speaker 2 (12:32):
I think those are.
Speaker 6 (12:32):
More important, and some of the survey data is a
bit divergent. You know, we've seen a lot of upward
pressure from the U of MISH data, but not so
much out of the New York Fed. But I really
believe these indexed bond spreads are the key. And if
we remember back to last summer, when it looked like
the labor market was really losing steam in a dramatic fashion,
(12:55):
those expectations started to tank, but they recovered when the
FED started to lower policy rates. So the FED has
just nailed it here. I mean, they've really pulled a
rabbit out of a hat in terms of raising rates,
sufficiently holding them there, and then seemingly cutting them just
at the right time. Even the pause, which some think,
you know was political based on the timing of the election,
(13:18):
I think is perfectly justified based on the macro data
and the behavior of bond market inflation expectations. So I
would love if Fed Shair Poul would give some additional
credence there, But I won't be holding my breath for that.
I think he's going to hold it close to the basket.
We'll see what these updated projections say, but I'd be
(13:39):
kind of surprised if the FED was the Fed in
the in the market expectations were seriously far apart at
this point. I think they're fairly close.
Speaker 5 (13:47):
Pa.
Speaker 2 (13:48):
I'll get one. We're in here with Michael Darta, but
I just went to Google Gemini Elboy and I typed
a linear rational expectations model, which Darta was expert at
the difference equations of when he was at Wisconsin as well,
And just like he says, it lays out an incredible
six paragraph summary including DSGE models. And we have Clarita
(14:10):
today on the ferryating. I mean, you're right, Michael, it's
just it's jaw dropping what they're doing.
Speaker 5 (14:16):
Michael.
Speaker 4 (14:16):
Do you think this US economy can have I mean
it appears that we've a we've had that soft landing.
The question I think for a lot of people is
in a world of higher trade tariffs, does that threaten
that soft landing at all? What's what's your GDP view here?
Speaker 6 (14:33):
Yeah, I think we're in a trend growth economy and
that is by definition of soft landing. But at the margin,
the risks are probably to the downside here. You know,
you guys were just talking about the messy real estate
market and it's been messy for a while. But you
know the risk with these tariffs is that we're self
(14:54):
imposing adverse supply shops in an economy that is really
benefit from a weakening of the supply side, right. I mean,
you know, early in the pandemic recovery, we were getting
negative productivity growth for about two years. Over the last
two years we've seen much better numbers close to or
above two percent. And that doesn't really even tell the
(15:16):
AI story yet. That was really just a rebound from
the pandemic oriented his stores. So you don't want to
do anything that interferes with the supply side, and the
terriffs are going to be a headwind there. I think
the AI story is going to be much more powerful
over the longer term. So as long as the FED
doesn't fall drastically behind the curve here, Paul that I
(15:39):
think you know that you can have good economic outcomes.
Speaker 2 (15:42):
So, Michael dart I got a run in the war.
Thank you so much on this FED day for joining us.
Mister Darta is with Roth Capital.
Speaker 1 (15:49):
Look, this is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each
weekday starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Coarclay, and
Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also
listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station.
Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 2 (16:07):
This is a joy and hugely anticipated win. Thin is
out of the Columbia Georgetown brandeis axis and particularly Columbia University.
He's global out of market strategy for Brown Brothers Harriman.
But he is definitive on the Pacific RIM. Wait, let's
just start, doctor Finn with the basics of the Pacific Rim.
(16:29):
Not not your Burma, but you know, North Singapore and
on up north. The currencies are screaming. Taiwan dollar stronger,
sing dollar almost down, New Reason strength as well. It's asymmetric.
Is this about dollar weakness or is this about Pacific
RIM success?
Speaker 7 (16:50):
First of all, Tom, Paul, Lisa, thanks for having me.
It's always a pleasure. I would say there's a lot
of moving parts. Much of it I think is to
all weakness, but there's also as you know, there's rumblings
out of these trade talks that the US would like
these currencies to be allowed to strengthen. We've heard that
out of Taiwan, We've heard that out of Korea. It's
(17:13):
been reported and denied. But you know, I think where
there's smoke, this fire, so there's it fits into the
underlying sort of market view that this administration wants a
weaker dollar pretty much across the board, and it's part
and parts of.
Speaker 5 (17:26):
The whole trade talks. You know.
Speaker 7 (17:28):
That's not to say, you know, these these countries aren't
doing well.
Speaker 5 (17:31):
Of course they are.
Speaker 7 (17:32):
There's some issues with obviously with China and supply chains
and things like that, but overall, the fundamental story remains
quite solid.
Speaker 5 (17:38):
So these currencies could strengthen, especially.
Speaker 7 (17:42):
If this if this dollar weakness picks up after today's
what I think will be the expected dubbish hold.
Speaker 4 (17:47):
So when what do you make of this US dollar
We've seen after the initial sell off and risk assets
or this year on Liberation Day we saw that, I
don't know, the US equity markets kind of retrace all
the selloffs, but we've not seen a rebound in US dollar.
Is just just a normal ten percent pullback on a
on a rich currency. Is there something else going on?
Speaker 5 (18:09):
Well, Paul, you know, if you you know, asked me
at the beginning of the year, you know, I was,
you know, dollible coming this year.
Speaker 7 (18:15):
We had sort of the economy fire all cylinders, the
FED hawkish et cetera, et cetera, deregulation, but really to
your point, liberation.
Speaker 5 (18:22):
Liberation Day was really game changer.
Speaker 7 (18:25):
It was it was I think the realization by the
market is that the policy making out of this administration
was unpredictable. Uh and really and to me unexplainable, inexplicable.
And I think it's been a lot of confidence in
the dollar.
Speaker 5 (18:41):
Since then.
Speaker 7 (18:42):
We had so much back and forth on terrfs, on
fiscal policy. It's it's really been, you know, a sort
of game changer since April second, and then April ninth, Uh,
the tariff announcements.
Speaker 5 (18:54):
So yeah, I've changed.
Speaker 7 (18:55):
I think the dollars is in for a weaker spell,
especially again with the US comomy star on SHOs and cracks.
That's why I think the FED is going to deliver
a dubbish hole today. Tariff uncertain continues, fiscal uncertain continues,
so all the elements are there for a week of dollar.
Speaker 2 (19:11):
Is a FED speaks today in the press conference on
all Doctor Thinn. One of the things here is everything's
unilateral discussion. The president, let's make a deal. Tim O'Brien
coming up in a big folks or maybe bilateral and
all of your academics is it's a multilateral world. Are
we just going to see them shift their US exports
(19:33):
through Singapore. Dare I say, through your Burma? I mean,
are they just going to conduit their exports through other geographies?
Speaker 5 (19:41):
Well, I do you know? That's good question, Tom.
Speaker 7 (19:43):
I do know that the US is an alert for
giants or sort of re export through Vietnam and sort
of other proxies.
Speaker 5 (19:51):
It can be done, but it'll be difficult.
Speaker 7 (19:53):
What I think to me is get back to this
bigger story about the dollars that the US is really
is pulling inwards. It's becoming they call it America first,
it's whatever you want to call it. It's isolationists. It's
leaving a vacuum for other countries. I think China will
will so exerts a greater influence, especially in the Pacific
Rim in Southeast Asia. We have eur Zone becoming a
(20:17):
bit more cohesive and perhaps picking up the ball over
in the European sphere. So you know, it's a long
you know this, We could talk about this for hours,
but in seat of geopolitics, we.
Speaker 5 (20:26):
Could be coming into this sort of multipolar world.
Speaker 7 (20:28):
Which is doll The US really has pulled back and
allowing others to come into this vacuum. Again, that's part
and parts of the weeker dollar I think as well.
Speaker 2 (20:35):
Marcus move the yield comes in in two basis points
four point three six percent. We have economic data and
housing starts. There was a bit of a positive revision,
but there's a grim statistic and housing starts. In building
permits here the survey negative zero point eight percent, round
it one percent, negative one percent. It came in at
(20:57):
negative nine point eight percent, found it negative ten percent,
huge miss and confirmed with building permits as well, which
were to be flat. The survey was zero point zero
and they came in negative two percent as well. Claims
pretty much on track is well. Four week moving average
(21:20):
lifts up from two hundred and forty one thousand up
to two hundred and forty five thousand. So there's the
economic data. Maybe it doesn't matter in a FED day,
but it's there. And again that we'll be there at
one point thirty giving you the FED press conference as such, Paul.
Speaker 4 (21:36):
When we saw earlier in the year, when there was
this vul volatility in the in the US markets, a
movement of capital over to Europe, particularly equities, people kind
of buying into these European equities and now we've got
European indites doing better than US. Is that simply a
short term trade or is that something more fundamental?
Speaker 5 (21:57):
Do you think? Yeah, Paul, I think, uh, there's a
million dollar question.
Speaker 7 (22:02):
My gut feelings, it's it's it's a it's a serious
rotation out of the US. Again, everyone was was long
US equities dollar at the beginning of this year, but
since the year began, we've got we had some good
news out of Europe, the fiscal sort of developments in Germany,
some improving sentiments in the case out of most of Europe,
(22:24):
at the same time that the US is starting to
soften up. So I think it's it's a cyclical shift.
I wouldn't say it's structural. I think it's too early
to say, but certainly a cyclical shift shift rotation from
the out of the US into the into the.
Speaker 5 (22:36):
Europe and other areas.
Speaker 7 (22:38):
And that's reflected in the in the equity market app
performance as.
Speaker 5 (22:41):
Well as the currency performance.
Speaker 7 (22:42):
A weaker dollar, you know, right now, it's sort of
sell sell a dollar by everything else. And again I
don't see anything on the on the survive and change
that very much, Thank you so much.
Speaker 2 (22:51):
Whin sents with Brown Brothers Harriman.
Speaker 1 (22:58):
This is the Bloomberg Surveiller Podcast. Listen live each weekday
starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto
with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us
live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal.
Speaker 2 (23:12):
Fosio Paulta Guzman joins right now to say she's with
Energy Vista. Barely describes her expertise and something we don't
talk enough about because Paul and I flunk the physics
of LNG liquefied natural gas. Her research note is so
valuable we protect the copyright of our guests. Get her
note from Energy Vista. Leslie thrilled to have you in
(23:35):
here for a brief at today. What are they thinking about?
And Cutter They're not worried about the World Cup right now?
Am I right? They own Arab leng and are they
at risk because of this war?
Speaker 8 (23:49):
So I think Katari is one of the most vulnerable
player right now in the region because it depends on
the strait of hormones to evacuate all its anti shipments.
That's one second. We had a strike from Israel on
sasparse number fourteen a few days ago, which is a
(24:09):
share field between Katar and Iran, although it's the further
away from Katar, right, and it's a domestic it's a
field for domestic consumption within Iran. It shows the capabilities
and the highest you know, we're at the highest place
in terms of tension for potential infrastructure hit in the region.
Speaker 2 (24:28):
That Morse sat in your chair there, yeah, two days ago.
I believe it was a giant and geopolitics and analysis
of this, and he said the media is missing the
LNG study, the natural gas study briefest now on the
fragility and the outcome of a busted LNG market if
(24:49):
this war expands.
Speaker 8 (24:52):
So, Katari is one of the world's largest LNG exporter
around the world. The US is the first one, Katari
the second one. Katari is standing most of its gas
right now to Asia. Eighty percent of its energy goes
to Asia, twenty five percent to China. So any major
disruption of Katar is a major heat for the market.
(25:16):
Less so right now for Europe because since the Hussy
have been relatilessly attacking shipments in the Red Sea, Katari
is you know, only maybe exporting one bcm a month
to Europe, but the basically the disruptions would be mostly
(25:37):
for Asia, and this is what this would be a
major heat. I would say that we're in a very
soft place right now in terms of demand in the
global gas market. There is ample supply coming online, but
still you will not you will notice it with pricing.
Speaker 5 (25:55):
You know.
Speaker 8 (25:55):
What I would say is that there are still many
unknown in this. In the coming days, the oil and
gas market will brace for further impact in terms of
shipping disruptions and potential further attacks on energy infrastructure if
things escalate.
Speaker 4 (26:14):
What are the shipping companies telling you about how they're
preparing for I mean, God forbid the straight of Her moves,
there'll be some tension there. But even other shipping lanes
that are critical to the movement of liquid loquified natural
gas and crude oil.
Speaker 5 (26:29):
What are they telling you?
Speaker 8 (26:30):
So most of the shipping companies right now are avoiding
as much as possible the East Mediterranean, the Suiss Gulf,
the Red Sea. They were already avoiding it, and the
Persian Gulf because we've seen some infrastructure hits in the
(26:51):
East Mediterranean. The High Far High Farm refinery was a hit.
Now the Levayettan field in Israel is shut down as precaution.
We've seen also, as I was mentioning earlier, some hits
on other infrastructure. But I would say that so far
we've seen restrain regarding energy infrastructure. That could change if
(27:13):
things go south.
Speaker 2 (27:15):
We're running out of time. This is too important a question.
I believe the President was in Qatar. I believe he
was shopping a new air force. One. I guess we're
making nice, We're doing the World Cup, whatever the moment is,
and Qatar is I guess the path of conversation from
Tehran to the Western world. What will you listen for
(27:37):
from Qatar and from Tehran in that communication to the
Western world.
Speaker 8 (27:43):
So it's just three scenarios right now. One is the
US joined the fight and want to finish the job
because both I think the US and Israel understand that
since October seven, the head of the octopus is Iran
and nuclear power in Iran would be too dangerous for
the world. Second is the nuclear talks potentially what Qatar
(28:06):
would prefer, meaning we go back to the table, we negotiate,
and it would be a safe the face strategy for
Iran and say basically the only option to save the
region maybe now, and third would be total rog going
rogum and maybe going with nuclear breakout with whatever is
(28:27):
left of nuclear or going after many assets from the
US and energy, infrastructure and neighbors.
Speaker 2 (28:33):
Thank you so much, really appreciate this. A senior non
resident Fellow the Center for Strategic in International Studies, lestic
politic Gosman joins US from Energy Vista.
Speaker 1 (28:43):
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
starting at seven am Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android
Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen
live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,
Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 2 (29:00):
Well, can Lisa top what she did yesterday on news?
Speaker 4 (29:02):
I it was pretty solid, So she's got a good
line up here today.
Speaker 2 (29:06):
Oh I like it.
Speaker 5 (29:06):
I like the leads.
Speaker 2 (29:07):
You get a pre email. I don't get a email.
Speaker 4 (29:10):
Yeah, I can approval, please you and Paul brief me
on the newspapers.
Speaker 9 (29:15):
Okay, we're starting with the Dallas Foy cheerleaders.
Speaker 6 (29:18):
That's how I fall like sid Oh.
Speaker 9 (29:19):
Really, yes, they got a big pay raise. I like
this story A roughly four hundred percent increase for the
twenty twenty five season. It was revealed episode seven they
have the second season of the Netflix docu series. They
have one about the show. It's called America's Sweethearts Big Hit.
I actually watched a few episodes out of a full disclosure.
There wasn't any information about what they were making before
(29:42):
how much they're going to be paid under the new deal.
But The New York Times did speak to a former
cheerleader who said in twenty twenty four, it was her
fifth year in the squad. She made about fifteen dollars
an hour, five hundred dollars for each game appearance. So
sometimes they're saying the mascots make more than the cheerleaders.
But what's still missing is health insurance. But what they're
(30:03):
saying is that it's really putting it out there. So now,
because of this increase, cheerleaders from other teams could be
set for an inert time job.
Speaker 2 (30:10):
I mean, there's what sixteen games, eighteen games?
Speaker 4 (30:13):
Yeah, I don't know. I think they get paid by
the game, right, they.
Speaker 9 (30:16):
Get paid by the game and per hour, like.
Speaker 6 (30:20):
Have full time jobs.
Speaker 9 (30:21):
And that's what you see in the series is how
they're all struggling, like they're working this job, working that job,
and doing all this stuff just to be a part
of the art.
Speaker 5 (30:32):
Cheerleader.
Speaker 9 (30:33):
Ever, next you go, all right, since we mentioned that
Netflix series, I want to stick with Netflix. And this
is interesting. Is it kind of a sign of what's
to come? Because Netflix struck a deal with to show
linear TV for the first time. It's going to add
live television channels shows from French broadcaster t F one.
(30:53):
So what French customers will be able to see is
live feeds, including sports from TF one's channels. They'll be
able to stream their shows on demand, dramas, reality shows
like The Voice that they.
Speaker 2 (31:04):
Show the French signal will be free on Netflix.
Speaker 6 (31:09):
Correct.
Speaker 9 (31:10):
There's no word though on how subscription advertising revenues are
going to be shared between the two companies, or how
much Netflix if they paid for like an upfront fee
for the content. But it's kind of a start to
something interesting.
Speaker 4 (31:23):
Most of the news you had earlier a week or
so ago that in the May month of May, streaming
viewership exceeded that a broadcasting cable television in the US.
So that's the trend right before us.
Speaker 9 (31:34):
So would we see that here, yes you will.
Speaker 1 (31:37):
Yeah.
Speaker 9 (31:38):
Interesting.
Speaker 2 (31:38):
Interesting.
Speaker 9 (31:40):
And the last one is about private space stations. They
could become the next travel destination. So instead of going
globally to France or wherever you want to go, you
can go to space maybe pretty soon. There are a
lot of companies looking to build these facilities. Making them
is pretty expensive, so the Wall Street Journal kind of
listed it. Some of them, like Axiom spaces Station could
(32:02):
someday hosts as many as eight people, five different modules
you can orbit above the Earth. It's going to cost
them about three billion dollars oh to make.
Speaker 6 (32:10):
And then you have just.
Speaker 9 (32:10):
Besos' Blue Origin their mind a station cord orbital reef
that could be coming orbital reef. Yes, if you would
like to stay, NASA says SpaceX is also investigating using
its starship as a possible low Earth orbit destination too,
And then they're star Lab. They're back by Voyager technology.
So it's all these companies that are.
Speaker 5 (32:30):
Running the mode.
Speaker 2 (32:31):
I mean they go up, they don't go up to orbit,
I mean, excuse me, kind of, it's kind of it's
exactly right. But now they're going to go into orbit
on a space station.
Speaker 4 (32:41):
And stay for a vacation vacation.
Speaker 9 (32:44):
Yeah, it's not just tours, of course, it's also you know,
different astronauts and scientists and research and things like that.
But it could be open to tourists as well.
Speaker 2 (32:54):
Okay, thank you. I'm just trying to thank a lease
audition for the Giants. Yeah, you're leading this fall.
Speaker 9 (33:01):
Yep, the Jets or the Jets do have a good
flight spud.
Speaker 2 (33:04):
There, Lisa Matello, thank you so much. That is the newspapers.
Speaker 1 (33:09):
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,
and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday,
seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the
iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You
can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and
(33:30):
always on the Bloomberg terminal
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