August 7, 2024 • 26 mins
Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.
Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene and Paul SweeneyAugust 7th, 2024
Featuring:
- Ian Lyngen, Head of US Rates at BMO Capital Markets, discusses a potential Fed emergency rate cut and outlook for yields
- Audrey Childe-Freeman, Chief G10 FX Strategist with Bloomberg Intelligence, discusses the yen carry trade and the Bank of Japan
- Brian Wieser, Principal at Madison & Wall, reacts to Disney earnings
- Bloomberg's Lisa Mateo with her Newspaper Headlines
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along
with Paul Sweeney. Join us each day for insight from
the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You
can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the
Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday
mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global
(00:34):
headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify,
or anywhere else you listen and always I'm Bloomberg Radio,
the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app. This is
a joy and you people go to me, why do
you celebrate people that get it wrong? And I had
a blistering argument once with some people about this. You
(00:56):
learn just as much from people who get it wrong
as you do from people to get it right. But
it's always a joy to have somebody in who absolutely
nailed this. And he has an informative note this morning
from the Bank of Montreal Female Capital Markets. With the
victory lap of the last eighteen months, Ian Lingen, with
(01:16):
a ten year yield below four percent, did you figure
we would go price up? Yield? Down in this manner
or do you just make the guests? And we got
there for a different reason.
Speaker 3 (01:28):
I've been reasonably confident that something would break with the
terminal rate as high as it was, for as long
as it was. It's we're going to end up on
four hundred and twenty one days at five point five
percent as the upper bound come the eighteenth of September,
and that is going to be not a record, but
a very significant degree of tightening.
Speaker 2 (01:49):
I talked to Matt Lazatti. I didn't get to this.
I'm going to get to it right now with Ian Ling.
A nice move there, Paula changed the micro around Zucki's
you know, a pack could work at the Olympics in
Paris on it to get the mic in front of
the pole vault. And I didn't get to this with Lyzetti.
But the answer is, formulas like the Taylor rule are
(02:09):
wildly distant now from where the FED is. How urgent
is it that the FED catch up to what John
Taylor at Stanford says, or other people frankly say they
should be.
Speaker 3 (02:22):
I think that the FED is cognizant of this, and
that's why they opened the discussion. They laid the groundwork
for rate cuts in December of last year. Recall Powell's pivot.
Now that didn't play out, and we all remember what
happened between January and March. But by opening that discussion,
the FED has allowed the market to do some of
(02:43):
the heavy lifting for it. So that's one of the
reasons that equities had been performing as well as they
had and real rates, while elevated, were not at concerning
levels as we have seen in prior cycles.
Speaker 4 (02:57):
So I'm an equity guy. I don't know what this
rate market thing is all about. I go to you
guys in Ira Jersey. Is fifty basis points baked in
for September? Or is there still some debate about September.
Speaker 3 (03:07):
I think it's still a very active debate about September.
I'm in the twenty five basis point camp, and the
logic there is we have three more key data releases
before the FED decides. We have two CPI prints and
a payrolls number, and frankly, Friday's number, while it was
somewhat troubling, was certainly not catastrophic. We have an unemployment
(03:29):
rate that's still below four and a half percent. We
have positive payrolls growth, and at the end of the day,
the FED wanted to instill a degree of balance into
the labor market, and that's precisely what they got.
Speaker 4 (03:41):
Monday morning, there was a little bit of panic in
the market. It felt like, you know, I hadn't felt
that in a while. I hadn't seen that in a while.
People were actually talking about an emergency rate cut. Is
that something or is that just overblown concern on a
Monday morning.
Speaker 3 (03:55):
Well, given the price action that would that played out
on Monday morning, was going on with the y in
what was going on with Japanese equities and global equities
more broadly, one would have been remiss not to at
least have an emergency cut as a as a potential.
But now we've stabilized, and as we've stabilized, the bar
has increased for the FED to consider cutting rates before
(04:18):
the eighteenth of September.
Speaker 2 (04:19):
I came in this morning, and this is the glory
days of twenty years ago. I used to It's how
I got my job. I used to construct fancy charts. Okay,
I did log vix. That's its own story. It's away
from me and Lingoen. But I did log inflation adjusted
ten year yield the real yield. So I had a
higher real yield as far back as July two point
zero zero percent two point zero two. We gloriously come in.
(04:43):
Then we have Japan, we come in even further. Where's
a normal real yield right now? I think even Global
Wall Street doesn't know what to do here at a
one point eight zero is that elevated still?
Speaker 3 (04:57):
I would say that that's still elevated, and the FED
would argue that's still restrictive. But the reality is, we
don't need to go back to zero in terms of
where we.
Speaker 2 (05:07):
Need to go to to get an efficacy for the
overall financial system.
Speaker 3 (05:11):
I think that our estimates somewhere in the fifty to
seventy five basis point range under one percent, under one percent,
you got it, We give me.
Speaker 2 (05:19):
That's an American if one of their Canadian shock, that's
why are you kidding me?
Speaker 3 (05:24):
No? I think that that's actually a reasonable level to
assume for real rates over the next.
Speaker 2 (05:29):
So you're modeling out a six percent nominal GDP. If
we get a pop down to point five zero positive
ten year inflation is just yield, You're goosen You gotta
be goosen out. To six percent nominal unless you get
global disinflation.
Speaker 3 (05:44):
Right, And what's to assume that we won't find ourselves
in a disinflationary environment globally? And I think that that's
what we're running up against, and that's what to a
large extent, the FED is trying to avoid, and that's
why they're being as proactive.
Speaker 2 (05:58):
I mentioned this all three times a sweek. Last week's
single sentence that mattered way lead black Rock. She's model
in China at a three percent run rate, yep, nobody
even eating Lincoln. At least some Tao's ready for that,
but not even Lincoln.
Speaker 4 (06:11):
And when the FED starts cutting rates, let's assume it's September,
how do they proceed from there? Is it every twenty
five basis points every meeting, every other meeting? Do they
keep it open maybe fifty points at some point?
Speaker 5 (06:23):
How does that work? Usually?
Speaker 3 (06:24):
Well, we're certainly in a typical environment. And so far
as the FED is not responding to a crisis, at
least not yet, all they're doing is going from restrictive
to less restrictive. So they're not easing in the traditional sense,
and so that will afford them the opportunity to deliver
quarterly rate cuts if they deem necessary. So twenty five
(06:45):
basis points a quarter is our base case scenario. Okay,
depending on what the next couple weeks gives us in
terms of data, we might actually pencil in another twenty
five for November.
Speaker 4 (06:57):
How about the political aspect to it? I mean year that.
How does the Fed?
Speaker 2 (07:03):
Are you talking Canada or US? He was, okay.
Speaker 3 (07:07):
I think that the presidential election has made it a
bit more difficult for the Fed to do either a
fifty or an inter meeting cut because there's the political
aspect of it. But twenty five has been well telegraphed
and is baked into market.
Speaker 2 (07:21):
I've got to make some news here. You've been the genius.
I can't say enough, folks, how Lincoln's led the charge?
David Roseberg? What is it about Canada? I don't know, Montreal,
Wan Rosenberg up in Toronto. It's the air of the water.
Maybe it's the La bats all. Excuse me, Molson. I'm sorry,
banker Montreal, but I lingen help me here. If I
get a point five zero ten year real yield, where
(07:42):
does that put nominal tenure in the Lincoln universe?
Speaker 3 (07:46):
Well, we will be pushing back below three percent. Now
that's not going to be this year, but that is
certainly on the horizon for let's call it the next
twenty four months.
Speaker 2 (07:58):
You are modeling sub three ten year two point ninety
five percent.
Speaker 3 (08:04):
Now by the end of two thousand and twenty six.
Very doable.
Speaker 4 (08:07):
All right, I'm gonna refinance the mortgage. There now we're
talking eat Lincoln.
Speaker 2 (08:11):
Thank you so much at BEMO Capital Markets. I can't
say enough about it, folks. It's the most valuable fixed
income note. Good morning, Ira, Jersey on the street. Go
to Bemo Capital Markets to see what Lincoln's thinking about.
(08:33):
It's a three hour conversation with the most important effects
person on the planet. Audrey Child Freeman joins us now
with Bloomberg Intelligence, London. I just got to digress here, Audrey,
pret time is precious. Your thoughts on the success of
France delivering the best Olympics ever? What's it like?
Speaker 1 (08:54):
It feels good. It's not finished yet, but so far
Stuth and needed feedback has been amazing. And what we
hear from Paris is the atmosphere is excellent, and so
it's a big success after early uncertainties.
Speaker 2 (09:11):
Under the headlines, and folks, I can't say enough how
Audrey dives deeper. Audrey, I'm looking at the Japanese ten
year real yield and basically the experiment they've done for
the last three, four or five years has a long
way to go. Do you agree that we're only partly
through the young clearing experiment?
Speaker 1 (09:34):
I agree with that view. I agree with the view
that the unwind of the carry trade is not completed yet.
I am very cautious in trying to quantify how much
we've seen and how much is left. But you know,
if you look at some of the indicators, such as
(09:54):
the CFTC numbers for instance, which gives you a little
bit of a flavor as to where we are, it
would appear that, you know, the market is still underweight
the end. So yes, the answer is we're probably not
done yet. And to go back to the early point
you were making about the BOJ, I also feel that, yes,
(10:16):
the BOJ had a big part to play in that
move last week and in the past few weeks. But
for me, it's been very much, you know, fed driven,
and I also feel that the second or the next leg,
I don't know if you can call it second, but
the next leg lower in yen will also be mainly
(10:36):
fed driven.
Speaker 2 (10:38):
Do you have a target on it that's support? And
if we get through one fifty, where does audrichild Freeman
feel weak and can go?
Speaker 1 (10:44):
So I think at the moment it's it's very difficult
to agree to give you a level right now, just
you know the direction is If you get the direction right,
you're a hero. But I think the level what I
will wait to see is where the new ranges establish themselves.
(11:05):
You know, we're still not sure that you know, we're
not going to see, you know, another big wave of
moves in the in the next few sessions. You know,
we've one we've gone to one forty two inch a
day on Monday, we're back at one forty seven today
just on the boj rape mentioned this morning. Yesterday we
(11:26):
were one forty five. So what I need to see
first is is the new kind of range that we
base ourselves from one forty five to one fifty and
that's where I kind of expected to be. And if so,
what do we do? And what I do is I
wait for, you know, the next trigger to move lower.
And I kind of feel that that next trigger may
(11:48):
come from the US but it won't be as extreme
as what we've seen in the past few sessions and weeks. Do.
Speaker 4 (11:56):
I think a lot of folks are trying to get
a handle on, you know, we get the yen from
one sixty to one forty, now we're back at you know,
kind of one forty seven. What's moving the Is it
the Bank of Japan? Is it the market? I mean,
is this normal? What's kind of moving this market so dramatically?
Speaker 1 (12:14):
So it's certainly not normal. I just feel that it
was very much a combination of factors together. So we
talked about the weakness in the US employment report on
last Friday, and I should say softness. You know, it
wasn't dramatically weak. It was just softer than what would
become used to for the US employment reports. As well
(12:37):
as you know, the bog coming up more hawkish and
expected last week. And this was happening at a time
when positioning was had become extreme earlier in the in
the summer, certainly when we were trading around sixty two.
And the final point I would add, you know, the
kind of icing on the take last week was It's
(12:59):
still difficult to sets what trader was, but certainly the
risk of market sentiment that we had via other asset classes,
the equity market downside, that exacerbated the on wide on
some of the crosses and EMFX and em instance. That's
another reason.
Speaker 2 (13:16):
Quickly, I got only one minute. How do you use
real yield analysis right now? How do you use inflation
adjusted yields in your study?
Speaker 1 (13:26):
Well, what we think is that the US and the FED,
this inflation story should allow the FED to cut interest rates.
And remember that the narrative on the FED has moved
so much in the course of the year. And that's
you know, from talking rate hike a few months ago
(13:47):
to no hike at all, to maybe a precautionary red cut. Sorry,
and now we're talking about a series of rate cuts
for this year. We're talking about one hundred bits rate cuts.
So this is how in the context of this inflation
in the US, and that's probably enough to take your
dollar narrative lower.
Speaker 2 (14:08):
This has been helpful, Audrey Child Freeman, thank you so much.
Publishing at Bloomberg Intelligence can't say enough about their value
add on the Bloomberg terminal. We pride ourselves on a
different set of guests. Brian Weezer from day one has
been different. We're thrilled that he could join us this morning.
(14:32):
Just lots going on there with Madison and while Brian
out broken, Brian Weezer is Disney.
Speaker 6 (14:40):
I don't think it's broken. I think that they, like
a lot of media companies, have been struggling to figure
out what to do and how to organize themselves for
the future. I think that they had strategic clarity in October.
They're about the twenty eighteen when they launched Disney Plus.
I think they lost a lot of strategic clarity certainly
going into the return of Bob Iger and in the
(15:03):
subsequent periods they're still trying to figure a lot of
things out. You know, they really had the right strategy
trying to focus on global for lack of better word,
domination in the streaming work, going head ahead with Netflix
and Amazon on the streaming video often that's.
Speaker 2 (15:17):
The heart of the matter.
Speaker 5 (15:18):
Yeah, I think so.
Speaker 2 (15:19):
I mean, the bottom line is they're going up against giants.
Speaker 7 (15:22):
They are.
Speaker 4 (15:22):
They're going up against giants, but they're a giant themselves. Brian.
They did actually show some profitability in the streaming business
here today. What do you and Arresta Wall Street think
about the future of that business From a profitability perspective.
Speaker 6 (15:34):
Well, I think most of Wall Street is really focused
on profitability to your point now where I sit, which
is well Madison wall We we think that they really
need to focus on focusing on ongoing scale, which might
mean profitability is a later thing, because if you want
to build up to compete better globally with Netflix and Amazon,
I think profits is something you've got to focus on
(15:55):
later on. They've got parks fund profits. I think if
you want to build a streamin is you have to
continue to invest in content, programming and distribution.
Speaker 4 (16:04):
So, Brian, they thought it's actually a pretty good quarter
from the box office the studio. Have they gotten their
mojo back there with all the Disney studio product?
Speaker 6 (16:14):
Yeah, it definitely seems like I haven't focused on the
studio results right now. I mean, obviously everyone's aware of
just how well I think it set out Deadpool done.
But I think that one could say, yeah, it feels
like they maybe they never really lost it. It was
just a couple of bad movies, Brian.
Speaker 2 (16:31):
The music businesses having an existential crisis over what copyrights
are worth. Is it the same with the catalogs of
the studios is Pinocchio or Dumbo or you know something
new Mandalorian. Are those copyrights maybe just simply not worth
the goodwill or bad will on the balance sheet?
Speaker 1 (16:52):
Yeah, you know.
Speaker 6 (16:53):
Well, here's the thing. When it comes to streaming services,
you come for the new original content and you stay
for the library. Disney has this massive and amazing skill
library and no one else will likely ever have anything
like that, but not for a very long time. So
they need both, right as long as they continue to
(17:14):
have more and better programming, and Hulu I think has
been crushing it from that front. Disney plus arguably needs
a lot more. Then there's something for people to come
for initially and then stick around for. So I think
you do need both, and Disney there'll be better positions
they invest again more in programming and content for originals
(17:35):
to support what they already have in this great library.
Speaker 2 (17:38):
We can we have a moment of silence for Brian
Weezer quickly here Paul asked him a question on this.
Brian Weezer nailed NBC in the Olympics. Yeah, nailed it
five years ago exactly.
Speaker 4 (17:51):
So hey, Brian, just to go down that path, I mean,
I'm having fun with the Olympics. What does it mean
for comcasts and NBC Universal? Is this gonna be a
win for them?
Speaker 6 (18:01):
Well, I mean, here's the thing. It's probably they're better
off having it than not, I guess is a better
way to put it. It's a really expensive proposition obviously
to run the Olympics, and I'm sure they'll say, you know,
they'll make a profit on the Olympics and that's good
for them. But you could also argue, well, couldn't they
also invest in other programming and be just as well
(18:21):
off profit wise. Probably, So, I don't think we want
to overstate it as somehow you know, uniquely positive as
a way to build a business. It's definitely a way
to build a business. But I don't think we want
to overstate it either.
Speaker 2 (18:35):
Brian on short notes, thank you so much for the
huge announcment from Disney spiking up early and by public acclaim,
I mean your daily look at the front pages of
Lisa Minna Tello our Lisa way too long?
Speaker 5 (18:56):
What do you have you missed it? Okay, have you
been to the movies lately?
Speaker 7 (19:02):
This is the problem. See that's the problem. Okay, a
lot of people not going to the movies. So theaters
are offering different perks, they're trying different things. There have
been some summer hits, you know, Deadpool, Wolverine, I'll probably
see it this weekend, Inside Out two, Despicable Me for
those were big things this summer. But ticket sales still
lagging behind last year. I mean, the summer is the
(19:22):
big part for theaters. It's forty percent of their domestic
ticket sales. Fewer wider releases. A lot of people watching
from home too, They're going to streaming. They're more comfortable
at home. So what theaters are doing, they're offering perks
like special popcorn buckets is one.
Speaker 5 (19:38):
Thing in theater playgrounds. You'll like this one.
Speaker 7 (19:41):
Cocktail bars inside the theaters, Okay, order ahead concessions.
Speaker 5 (19:47):
I know my family loves this.
Speaker 7 (19:48):
You do it online on your app and then you
get there, you don't have to wait in the line
and the popcorns just waiting for you. So those are
some of the things they're doing that. A lot of
them like the IMAX.
Speaker 5 (19:58):
Better I know for that, yeah you know, but you
pay for that.
Speaker 7 (20:01):
But you pay extra for yeah, So they're kind of
banking on that too.
Speaker 5 (20:06):
So a lot of changes going on.
Speaker 2 (20:08):
And afterthought is glued to the computer watching movies. She
watched Chicago the other night. I'm trying to get her
to watch Lost in translation. It's not the same theme laptop.
Our kids are being cheated. It is the way I'd
look at it.
Speaker 7 (20:26):
Yeah, there is used to even watching it on their phone.
Speaker 4 (20:28):
But I'm watching. I mean my parents. My parents will
tell me they would go to the movies theaters two
or three times a week.
Speaker 2 (20:34):
Oha, that was it.
Speaker 4 (20:37):
And then you and they had all the movie shorts
and all this. So that experience is different from what
we grew up with, which I still think was a
good theater experience. Now to today, the case you say technology.
Speaker 2 (20:48):
My father aged Lawrence of Arabia, was two dollars seventy
five cents. It's they got old. Next, what do you go?
Speaker 7 (20:55):
Taylor Swift fans, they're celebrating Kamala Harris's running mate, Tim Waltz.
Speaker 5 (20:59):
Okay, there's some reason.
Speaker 7 (21:00):
And Swift he is a swifty Okay, they're calling him
the Swifty VP.
Speaker 5 (21:07):
A couple of things he's done.
Speaker 7 (21:08):
Remember back in November twenty two, right rafter that Ticketmaster
disaster with the Swift tickets. So he posted a picture
of his cat on X and said that you know,
it was online all day and now it's not getting.
Speaker 5 (21:20):
Taylor Swift tickets. Then he went further.
Speaker 7 (21:24):
He signed this so called Taylor Swift Bill that was
in Minnesota into law. I kind of guarantees that protection
for people buying tickets online. And then he proclaimed two
Taylor Swift Days in Minnesota of June because the tour
came to Minneapolis.
Speaker 6 (21:37):
So wow.
Speaker 7 (21:38):
He complained that he claimed those days and a lot
of Swift fans are jumping on. They're making friendship bracelets
with his name on it. So it was attracting that younger.
Speaker 4 (21:48):
It's friendship brace But I do know it is a thing.
It is a big thing, right, So maybe he's getting
the Swifty vote. That's got to help.
Speaker 5 (21:56):
On the margin that younger.
Speaker 2 (21:57):
Sure they're looking for that because they don't need friendship.
Maybe it's because no friends.
Speaker 7 (22:03):
That could be I'll make you one next Olympics fever, right,
that's all we're talking about.
Speaker 5 (22:10):
Olympics. Olympics.
Speaker 2 (22:11):
I love the vault lesson.
Speaker 5 (22:15):
That just amazes me. That sport in itself.
Speaker 7 (22:17):
Did you know they have breakdancing too, By the way,
that's another story. But the problem is that, you know,
it fades out after three years. You know, you have
this whole hype and then it fades out. So Netflix
wants to change that. They're partnering with the International Olympic Committee.
They're filming documentaries right.
Speaker 2 (22:32):
Now about the auto racing thing.
Speaker 7 (22:35):
It's the same people, the Box of Box Films that
did the auto racing thing. Okay, so they're there, that
production company and they're filming all those different sports. And
what they're gonna do is they're going to take that
footage and they're going to put it into different seasons.
They have the Netflix documentary Sprint, so they're doing another
season of that, you know, in the off season when
the Olympics aren't running. They're doing another season of some
(22:55):
Moanbiles Rising because that was a hit on Netflix. So
they're figuring film again now and then we'll you know,
air it later, so that will.
Speaker 5 (23:03):
You know, help keep the interest. But they want to
track younger fans too, and.
Speaker 2 (23:07):
Correct me, it's in Los Angeles.
Speaker 5 (23:09):
Next yes, correct, yes, yeah, it'll be big.
Speaker 2 (23:14):
You know, it's it's dazzling. In fact, Mayor Hidago out
today just screaming the politics of France has just been
pushed aside by the joy of this full disclosure. A
Greyfeld sighting at the rock Star seats. She knows like
Sleen I think, I think she's like best buzzs of
Selene Greyfeld sighting. She is in Paris. David Gerr is
(23:38):
our intermediary here and we believe we may have a
scheduled Griefeld conversation. Catherine Greifeld, surveillance Paris reporter. We're looking
for that Friday.
Speaker 5 (23:49):
We're working on it right without the horse, without speaking
of Paris. This kind of brings me into the next one.
We had.
Speaker 7 (23:58):
Open water swimmers have done it. They have dived into
the Sin River. Paris organizers they said it was safe.
They had a two hour training session, they came out
everything was fine. But I mean the women they kick
off that ten kilometer race to starting to one day,
so tomorrow the men's is Friday. The water correctly so
(24:20):
correct correct, But they say the weather is going to
be great for it, so they shouldn't have any problems
with the water and the bacteria levels. But a lot
of swimmers are telling the Associated Press, you know what,
we're still kind of worried.
Speaker 5 (24:32):
I don't want to get sick.
Speaker 2 (24:33):
Well, I believe a Belgian swimmer was sick, but again
I'm not sure if it.
Speaker 5 (24:37):
Was the water correct correct.
Speaker 4 (24:39):
Well, I mean, I mean it's going to be pretty
cool that they do it, because I mean the scenery
around that thing went through the capital is pretty awesome.
Speaker 2 (24:46):
I mean, I got the Wilburtin swimsuit. I mean, I
got the fancy, over priced French swims nice and I
can get. I got, I got float I got and
I got float floaties France gating. You know, goem But
would you, Paul.
Speaker 5 (25:04):
I mean they think.
Speaker 7 (25:06):
I mean, if they have to do, you got to
test out the current, right, because there's a stronger current.
Speaker 6 (25:09):
It's a real current, right, I would.
Speaker 2 (25:11):
I would guess it's an amateur It's not like the Thames.
The London current is you sit on London Bridge after
the third martini and the water's going underneath.
Speaker 4 (25:21):
It's like whoa, yep, anyway, good stuff.
Speaker 7 (25:25):
But yeah, so they did it, so we see there
is a backup plan in place in case they do
not test it.
Speaker 2 (25:29):
Right.
Speaker 5 (25:30):
The backup plan is that it's a stadium that was
the side of the rowing and the canoeing events.
Speaker 7 (25:35):
So that's there, you know, on the ready, just in
case the levels don't work out very well.
Speaker 2 (25:40):
Okay, Lisa ma Tello, thank you so much our newspapers
this morning. This is a Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, bringing you
the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You
can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the
Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday
(26:01):
mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global
headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify,
or anywhere else you listen, and always on Bloomberg Radio,
the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app.
Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along
with Paul Sweeney. Join us each day for insight from
the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You
can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the
Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday
mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global
(00:34):
headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify,
or anywhere else you listen and always I'm Bloomberg Radio,
the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app. This is
a joy and you people go to me, why do
you celebrate people that get it wrong? And I had
a blistering argument once with some people about this. You
(00:56):
learn just as much from people who get it wrong
as you do from people to get it right. But
it's always a joy to have somebody in who absolutely
nailed this. And he has an informative note this morning
from the Bank of Montreal Female Capital Markets. With the
victory lap of the last eighteen months, Ian Lingen, with
(01:16):
a ten year yield below four percent, did you figure
we would go price up? Yield? Down in this manner
or do you just make the guests? And we got
there for a different reason.
Speaker 3 (01:28):
I've been reasonably confident that something would break with the
terminal rate as high as it was, for as long
as it was. It's we're going to end up on
four hundred and twenty one days at five point five
percent as the upper bound come the eighteenth of September,
and that is going to be not a record, but
a very significant degree of tightening.
Speaker 2 (01:49):
I talked to Matt Lazatti. I didn't get to this.
I'm going to get to it right now with Ian Ling.
A nice move there, Paula changed the micro around Zucki's
you know, a pack could work at the Olympics in
Paris on it to get the mic in front of
the pole vault. And I didn't get to this with Lyzetti.
But the answer is, formulas like the Taylor rule are
(02:09):
wildly distant now from where the FED is. How urgent
is it that the FED catch up to what John
Taylor at Stanford says, or other people frankly say they
should be.
Speaker 3 (02:22):
I think that the FED is cognizant of this, and
that's why they opened the discussion. They laid the groundwork
for rate cuts in December of last year. Recall Powell's pivot.
Now that didn't play out, and we all remember what
happened between January and March. But by opening that discussion,
the FED has allowed the market to do some of
(02:43):
the heavy lifting for it. So that's one of the
reasons that equities had been performing as well as they
had and real rates, while elevated, were not at concerning
levels as we have seen in prior cycles.
Speaker 4 (02:57):
So I'm an equity guy. I don't know what this
rate market thing is all about. I go to you
guys in Ira Jersey. Is fifty basis points baked in
for September? Or is there still some debate about September.
Speaker 3 (03:07):
I think it's still a very active debate about September.
I'm in the twenty five basis point camp, and the
logic there is we have three more key data releases
before the FED decides. We have two CPI prints and
a payrolls number, and frankly, Friday's number, while it was
somewhat troubling, was certainly not catastrophic. We have an unemployment
(03:29):
rate that's still below four and a half percent. We
have positive payrolls growth, and at the end of the day,
the FED wanted to instill a degree of balance into
the labor market, and that's precisely what they got.
Speaker 4 (03:41):
Monday morning, there was a little bit of panic in
the market. It felt like, you know, I hadn't felt
that in a while. I hadn't seen that in a while.
People were actually talking about an emergency rate cut. Is
that something or is that just overblown concern on a
Monday morning.
Speaker 3 (03:55):
Well, given the price action that would that played out
on Monday morning, was going on with the y in
what was going on with Japanese equities and global equities
more broadly, one would have been remiss not to at
least have an emergency cut as a as a potential.
But now we've stabilized, and as we've stabilized, the bar
has increased for the FED to consider cutting rates before
(04:18):
the eighteenth of September.
Speaker 2 (04:19):
I came in this morning, and this is the glory
days of twenty years ago. I used to It's how
I got my job. I used to construct fancy charts. Okay,
I did log vix. That's its own story. It's away
from me and Lingoen. But I did log inflation adjusted
ten year yield the real yield. So I had a
higher real yield as far back as July two point
zero zero percent two point zero two. We gloriously come in.
(04:43):
Then we have Japan, we come in even further. Where's
a normal real yield right now? I think even Global
Wall Street doesn't know what to do here at a
one point eight zero is that elevated still?
Speaker 3 (04:57):
I would say that that's still elevated, and the FED
would argue that's still restrictive. But the reality is, we
don't need to go back to zero in terms of
where we.
Speaker 2 (05:07):
Need to go to to get an efficacy for the
overall financial system.
Speaker 3 (05:11):
I think that our estimates somewhere in the fifty to
seventy five basis point range under one percent, under one percent,
you got it, We give me.
Speaker 2 (05:19):
That's an American if one of their Canadian shock, that's
why are you kidding me?
Speaker 3 (05:24):
No? I think that that's actually a reasonable level to
assume for real rates over the next.
Speaker 2 (05:29):
So you're modeling out a six percent nominal GDP. If
we get a pop down to point five zero positive
ten year inflation is just yield, You're goosen You gotta
be goosen out. To six percent nominal unless you get
global disinflation.
Speaker 3 (05:44):
Right, And what's to assume that we won't find ourselves
in a disinflationary environment globally? And I think that that's
what we're running up against, and that's what to a
large extent, the FED is trying to avoid, and that's
why they're being as proactive.
Speaker 2 (05:58):
I mentioned this all three times a sweek. Last week's
single sentence that mattered way lead black Rock. She's model
in China at a three percent run rate, yep, nobody
even eating Lincoln. At least some Tao's ready for that,
but not even Lincoln.
Speaker 4 (06:11):
And when the FED starts cutting rates, let's assume it's September,
how do they proceed from there? Is it every twenty
five basis points every meeting, every other meeting? Do they
keep it open maybe fifty points at some point?
Speaker 5 (06:23):
How does that work? Usually?
Speaker 3 (06:24):
Well, we're certainly in a typical environment. And so far
as the FED is not responding to a crisis, at
least not yet, all they're doing is going from restrictive
to less restrictive. So they're not easing in the traditional sense,
and so that will afford them the opportunity to deliver
quarterly rate cuts if they deem necessary. So twenty five
(06:45):
basis points a quarter is our base case scenario. Okay,
depending on what the next couple weeks gives us in
terms of data, we might actually pencil in another twenty
five for November.
Speaker 4 (06:57):
How about the political aspect to it? I mean year that.
How does the Fed?
Speaker 2 (07:03):
Are you talking Canada or US? He was, okay.
Speaker 3 (07:07):
I think that the presidential election has made it a
bit more difficult for the Fed to do either a
fifty or an inter meeting cut because there's the political
aspect of it. But twenty five has been well telegraphed
and is baked into market.
Speaker 2 (07:21):
I've got to make some news here. You've been the genius.
I can't say enough, folks, how Lincoln's led the charge?
David Roseberg? What is it about Canada? I don't know, Montreal,
Wan Rosenberg up in Toronto. It's the air of the water.
Maybe it's the La bats all. Excuse me, Molson. I'm sorry,
banker Montreal, but I lingen help me here. If I
get a point five zero ten year real yield, where
(07:42):
does that put nominal tenure in the Lincoln universe?
Speaker 3 (07:46):
Well, we will be pushing back below three percent. Now
that's not going to be this year, but that is
certainly on the horizon for let's call it the next
twenty four months.
Speaker 2 (07:58):
You are modeling sub three ten year two point ninety
five percent.
Speaker 3 (08:04):
Now by the end of two thousand and twenty six.
Very doable.
Speaker 4 (08:07):
All right, I'm gonna refinance the mortgage. There now we're
talking eat Lincoln.
Speaker 2 (08:11):
Thank you so much at BEMO Capital Markets. I can't
say enough about it, folks. It's the most valuable fixed
income note. Good morning, Ira, Jersey on the street. Go
to Bemo Capital Markets to see what Lincoln's thinking about.
(08:33):
It's a three hour conversation with the most important effects
person on the planet. Audrey Child Freeman joins us now
with Bloomberg Intelligence, London. I just got to digress here, Audrey,
pret time is precious. Your thoughts on the success of
France delivering the best Olympics ever? What's it like?
Speaker 1 (08:54):
It feels good. It's not finished yet, but so far
Stuth and needed feedback has been amazing. And what we
hear from Paris is the atmosphere is excellent, and so
it's a big success after early uncertainties.
Speaker 2 (09:11):
Under the headlines, and folks, I can't say enough how
Audrey dives deeper. Audrey, I'm looking at the Japanese ten
year real yield and basically the experiment they've done for
the last three, four or five years has a long
way to go. Do you agree that we're only partly
through the young clearing experiment?
Speaker 1 (09:34):
I agree with that view. I agree with the view
that the unwind of the carry trade is not completed yet.
I am very cautious in trying to quantify how much
we've seen and how much is left. But you know,
if you look at some of the indicators, such as
(09:54):
the CFTC numbers for instance, which gives you a little
bit of a flavor as to where we are, it
would appear that, you know, the market is still underweight
the end. So yes, the answer is we're probably not
done yet. And to go back to the early point
you were making about the BOJ, I also feel that, yes,
(10:16):
the BOJ had a big part to play in that
move last week and in the past few weeks. But
for me, it's been very much, you know, fed driven,
and I also feel that the second or the next leg,
I don't know if you can call it second, but
the next leg lower in yen will also be mainly
(10:36):
fed driven.
Speaker 2 (10:38):
Do you have a target on it that's support? And
if we get through one fifty, where does audrichild Freeman
feel weak and can go?
Speaker 1 (10:44):
So I think at the moment it's it's very difficult
to agree to give you a level right now, just
you know the direction is If you get the direction right,
you're a hero. But I think the level what I
will wait to see is where the new ranges establish themselves.
(11:05):
You know, we're still not sure that you know, we're
not going to see, you know, another big wave of
moves in the in the next few sessions. You know,
we've one we've gone to one forty two inch a
day on Monday, we're back at one forty seven today
just on the boj rape mentioned this morning. Yesterday we
(11:26):
were one forty five. So what I need to see
first is is the new kind of range that we
base ourselves from one forty five to one fifty and
that's where I kind of expected to be. And if so,
what do we do? And what I do is I
wait for, you know, the next trigger to move lower.
And I kind of feel that that next trigger may
(11:48):
come from the US but it won't be as extreme
as what we've seen in the past few sessions and weeks. Do.
Speaker 4 (11:56):
I think a lot of folks are trying to get
a handle on, you know, we get the yen from
one sixty to one forty, now we're back at you know,
kind of one forty seven. What's moving the Is it
the Bank of Japan? Is it the market? I mean,
is this normal? What's kind of moving this market so dramatically?
Speaker 1 (12:14):
So it's certainly not normal. I just feel that it
was very much a combination of factors together. So we
talked about the weakness in the US employment report on
last Friday, and I should say softness. You know, it
wasn't dramatically weak. It was just softer than what would
become used to for the US employment reports. As well
(12:37):
as you know, the bog coming up more hawkish and
expected last week. And this was happening at a time
when positioning was had become extreme earlier in the in
the summer, certainly when we were trading around sixty two.
And the final point I would add, you know, the
kind of icing on the take last week was It's
(12:59):
still difficult to sets what trader was, but certainly the
risk of market sentiment that we had via other asset classes,
the equity market downside, that exacerbated the on wide on
some of the crosses and EMFX and em instance. That's
another reason.
Speaker 2 (13:16):
Quickly, I got only one minute. How do you use
real yield analysis right now? How do you use inflation
adjusted yields in your study?
Speaker 1 (13:26):
Well, what we think is that the US and the FED,
this inflation story should allow the FED to cut interest rates.
And remember that the narrative on the FED has moved
so much in the course of the year. And that's
you know, from talking rate hike a few months ago
(13:47):
to no hike at all, to maybe a precautionary red cut. Sorry,
and now we're talking about a series of rate cuts
for this year. We're talking about one hundred bits rate cuts.
So this is how in the context of this inflation
in the US, and that's probably enough to take your
dollar narrative lower.
Speaker 2 (14:08):
This has been helpful, Audrey Child Freeman, thank you so much.
Publishing at Bloomberg Intelligence can't say enough about their value
add on the Bloomberg terminal. We pride ourselves on a
different set of guests. Brian Weezer from day one has
been different. We're thrilled that he could join us this morning.
(14:32):
Just lots going on there with Madison and while Brian
out broken, Brian Weezer is Disney.
Speaker 6 (14:40):
I don't think it's broken. I think that they, like
a lot of media companies, have been struggling to figure
out what to do and how to organize themselves for
the future. I think that they had strategic clarity in October.
They're about the twenty eighteen when they launched Disney Plus.
I think they lost a lot of strategic clarity certainly
going into the return of Bob Iger and in the
(15:03):
subsequent periods they're still trying to figure a lot of
things out. You know, they really had the right strategy
trying to focus on global for lack of better word,
domination in the streaming work, going head ahead with Netflix
and Amazon on the streaming video often that's.
Speaker 2 (15:17):
The heart of the matter.
Speaker 5 (15:18):
Yeah, I think so.
Speaker 2 (15:19):
I mean, the bottom line is they're going up against giants.
Speaker 7 (15:22):
They are.
Speaker 4 (15:22):
They're going up against giants, but they're a giant themselves. Brian.
They did actually show some profitability in the streaming business
here today. What do you and Arresta Wall Street think
about the future of that business From a profitability perspective.
Speaker 6 (15:34):
Well, I think most of Wall Street is really focused
on profitability to your point now where I sit, which
is well Madison wall We we think that they really
need to focus on focusing on ongoing scale, which might
mean profitability is a later thing, because if you want
to build up to compete better globally with Netflix and Amazon,
I think profits is something you've got to focus on
(15:55):
later on. They've got parks fund profits. I think if
you want to build a streamin is you have to
continue to invest in content, programming and distribution.
Speaker 4 (16:04):
So, Brian, they thought it's actually a pretty good quarter
from the box office the studio. Have they gotten their
mojo back there with all the Disney studio product?
Speaker 6 (16:14):
Yeah, it definitely seems like I haven't focused on the
studio results right now. I mean, obviously everyone's aware of
just how well I think it set out Deadpool done.
But I think that one could say, yeah, it feels
like they maybe they never really lost it. It was
just a couple of bad movies, Brian.
Speaker 2 (16:31):
The music businesses having an existential crisis over what copyrights
are worth. Is it the same with the catalogs of
the studios is Pinocchio or Dumbo or you know something
new Mandalorian. Are those copyrights maybe just simply not worth
the goodwill or bad will on the balance sheet?
Speaker 1 (16:52):
Yeah, you know.
Speaker 6 (16:53):
Well, here's the thing. When it comes to streaming services,
you come for the new original content and you stay
for the library. Disney has this massive and amazing skill
library and no one else will likely ever have anything
like that, but not for a very long time. So
they need both, right as long as they continue to
(17:14):
have more and better programming, and Hulu I think has
been crushing it from that front. Disney plus arguably needs
a lot more. Then there's something for people to come
for initially and then stick around for. So I think
you do need both, and Disney there'll be better positions
they invest again more in programming and content for originals
(17:35):
to support what they already have in this great library.
Speaker 2 (17:38):
We can we have a moment of silence for Brian
Weezer quickly here Paul asked him a question on this.
Brian Weezer nailed NBC in the Olympics. Yeah, nailed it
five years ago exactly.
Speaker 4 (17:51):
So hey, Brian, just to go down that path, I mean,
I'm having fun with the Olympics. What does it mean
for comcasts and NBC Universal? Is this gonna be a
win for them?
Speaker 6 (18:01):
Well, I mean, here's the thing. It's probably they're better
off having it than not, I guess is a better
way to put it. It's a really expensive proposition obviously
to run the Olympics, and I'm sure they'll say, you know,
they'll make a profit on the Olympics and that's good
for them. But you could also argue, well, couldn't they
also invest in other programming and be just as well
(18:21):
off profit wise. Probably, So, I don't think we want
to overstate it as somehow you know, uniquely positive as
a way to build a business. It's definitely a way
to build a business. But I don't think we want
to overstate it either.
Speaker 2 (18:35):
Brian on short notes, thank you so much for the
huge announcment from Disney spiking up early and by public acclaim,
I mean your daily look at the front pages of
Lisa Minna Tello our Lisa way too long?
Speaker 5 (18:56):
What do you have you missed it? Okay, have you
been to the movies lately?
Speaker 7 (19:02):
This is the problem. See that's the problem. Okay, a
lot of people not going to the movies. So theaters
are offering different perks, they're trying different things. There have
been some summer hits, you know, Deadpool, Wolverine, I'll probably
see it this weekend, Inside Out two, Despicable Me for
those were big things this summer. But ticket sales still
lagging behind last year. I mean, the summer is the
(19:22):
big part for theaters. It's forty percent of their domestic
ticket sales. Fewer wider releases. A lot of people watching
from home too, They're going to streaming. They're more comfortable
at home. So what theaters are doing, they're offering perks
like special popcorn buckets is one.
Speaker 5 (19:38):
Thing in theater playgrounds. You'll like this one.
Speaker 7 (19:41):
Cocktail bars inside the theaters, Okay, order ahead concessions.
Speaker 5 (19:47):
I know my family loves this.
Speaker 7 (19:48):
You do it online on your app and then you
get there, you don't have to wait in the line
and the popcorns just waiting for you. So those are
some of the things they're doing that. A lot of
them like the IMAX.
Speaker 5 (19:58):
Better I know for that, yeah you know, but you
pay for that.
Speaker 7 (20:01):
But you pay extra for yeah, So they're kind of
banking on that too.
Speaker 5 (20:06):
So a lot of changes going on.
Speaker 2 (20:08):
And afterthought is glued to the computer watching movies. She
watched Chicago the other night. I'm trying to get her
to watch Lost in translation. It's not the same theme laptop.
Our kids are being cheated. It is the way I'd
look at it.
Speaker 7 (20:26):
Yeah, there is used to even watching it on their phone.
Speaker 4 (20:28):
But I'm watching. I mean my parents. My parents will
tell me they would go to the movies theaters two
or three times a week.
Speaker 2 (20:34):
Oha, that was it.
Speaker 4 (20:37):
And then you and they had all the movie shorts
and all this. So that experience is different from what
we grew up with, which I still think was a
good theater experience. Now to today, the case you say technology.
Speaker 2 (20:48):
My father aged Lawrence of Arabia, was two dollars seventy
five cents. It's they got old. Next, what do you go?
Speaker 7 (20:55):
Taylor Swift fans, they're celebrating Kamala Harris's running mate, Tim Waltz.
Speaker 5 (20:59):
Okay, there's some reason.
Speaker 7 (21:00):
And Swift he is a swifty Okay, they're calling him
the Swifty VP.
Speaker 5 (21:07):
A couple of things he's done.
Speaker 7 (21:08):
Remember back in November twenty two, right rafter that Ticketmaster
disaster with the Swift tickets. So he posted a picture
of his cat on X and said that you know,
it was online all day and now it's not getting.
Speaker 5 (21:20):
Taylor Swift tickets. Then he went further.
Speaker 7 (21:24):
He signed this so called Taylor Swift Bill that was
in Minnesota into law. I kind of guarantees that protection
for people buying tickets online. And then he proclaimed two
Taylor Swift Days in Minnesota of June because the tour
came to Minneapolis.
Speaker 6 (21:37):
So wow.
Speaker 7 (21:38):
He complained that he claimed those days and a lot
of Swift fans are jumping on. They're making friendship bracelets
with his name on it. So it was attracting that younger.
Speaker 4 (21:48):
It's friendship brace But I do know it is a thing.
It is a big thing, right, So maybe he's getting
the Swifty vote. That's got to help.
Speaker 5 (21:56):
On the margin that younger.
Speaker 2 (21:57):
Sure they're looking for that because they don't need friendship.
Maybe it's because no friends.
Speaker 7 (22:03):
That could be I'll make you one next Olympics fever, right,
that's all we're talking about.
Speaker 5 (22:10):
Olympics. Olympics.
Speaker 2 (22:11):
I love the vault lesson.
Speaker 5 (22:15):
That just amazes me. That sport in itself.
Speaker 7 (22:17):
Did you know they have breakdancing too, By the way,
that's another story. But the problem is that, you know,
it fades out after three years. You know, you have
this whole hype and then it fades out. So Netflix
wants to change that. They're partnering with the International Olympic Committee.
They're filming documentaries right.
Speaker 2 (22:32):
Now about the auto racing thing.
Speaker 7 (22:35):
It's the same people, the Box of Box Films that
did the auto racing thing. Okay, so they're there, that
production company and they're filming all those different sports. And
what they're gonna do is they're going to take that
footage and they're going to put it into different seasons.
They have the Netflix documentary Sprint, so they're doing another
season of that, you know, in the off season when
the Olympics aren't running. They're doing another season of some
(22:55):
Moanbiles Rising because that was a hit on Netflix. So
they're figuring film again now and then we'll you know,
air it later, so that will.
Speaker 5 (23:03):
You know, help keep the interest. But they want to
track younger fans too, and.
Speaker 2 (23:07):
Correct me, it's in Los Angeles.
Speaker 5 (23:09):
Next yes, correct, yes, yeah, it'll be big.
Speaker 2 (23:14):
You know, it's it's dazzling. In fact, Mayor Hidago out
today just screaming the politics of France has just been
pushed aside by the joy of this full disclosure. A
Greyfeld sighting at the rock Star seats. She knows like
Sleen I think, I think she's like best buzzs of
Selene Greyfeld sighting. She is in Paris. David Gerr is
(23:38):
our intermediary here and we believe we may have a
scheduled Griefeld conversation. Catherine Greifeld, surveillance Paris reporter. We're looking
for that Friday.
Speaker 5 (23:49):
We're working on it right without the horse, without speaking
of Paris. This kind of brings me into the next one.
We had.
Speaker 7 (23:58):
Open water swimmers have done it. They have dived into
the Sin River. Paris organizers they said it was safe.
They had a two hour training session, they came out
everything was fine. But I mean the women they kick
off that ten kilometer race to starting to one day,
so tomorrow the men's is Friday. The water correctly so
(24:20):
correct correct, But they say the weather is going to
be great for it, so they shouldn't have any problems
with the water and the bacteria levels. But a lot
of swimmers are telling the Associated Press, you know what,
we're still kind of worried.
Speaker 5 (24:32):
I don't want to get sick.
Speaker 2 (24:33):
Well, I believe a Belgian swimmer was sick, but again
I'm not sure if it.
Speaker 5 (24:37):
Was the water correct correct.
Speaker 4 (24:39):
Well, I mean, I mean it's going to be pretty
cool that they do it, because I mean the scenery
around that thing went through the capital is pretty awesome.
Speaker 2 (24:46):
I mean, I got the Wilburtin swimsuit. I mean, I
got the fancy, over priced French swims nice and I
can get. I got, I got float I got and
I got float floaties France gating. You know, goem But
would you, Paul.
Speaker 5 (25:04):
I mean they think.
Speaker 7 (25:06):
I mean, if they have to do, you got to
test out the current, right, because there's a stronger current.
Speaker 6 (25:09):
It's a real current, right, I would.
Speaker 2 (25:11):
I would guess it's an amateur It's not like the Thames.
The London current is you sit on London Bridge after
the third martini and the water's going underneath.
Speaker 4 (25:21):
It's like whoa, yep, anyway, good stuff.
Speaker 7 (25:25):
But yeah, so they did it, so we see there
is a backup plan in place in case they do
not test it.
Speaker 2 (25:29):
Right.
Speaker 5 (25:30):
The backup plan is that it's a stadium that was
the side of the rowing and the canoeing events.
Speaker 7 (25:35):
So that's there, you know, on the ready, just in
case the levels don't work out very well.
Speaker 2 (25:40):
Okay, Lisa ma Tello, thank you so much our newspapers
this morning. This is a Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, bringing you
the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You
can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the
Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday
(26:01):
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If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Follow now to get the latest episodes of Dateline NBC completely free, or subscribe to Dateline Premium for ad-free listening and exclusive bonus content: DatelinePremium.com
The Breakfast Club
The World's Most Dangerous Morning Show, The Breakfast Club, With DJ Envy, Jess Hilarious, And Charlamagne Tha God!