May 22, 2025 • 44 mins
Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.
Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyMay 22nd, 2025
Featuring:
1) Stephanie Roth, Chief Economist at Wolfe Research, joins to discuss upside surprises in tariffs and inflation and how the reconciliation bill could lift 10-year yields. US bonds and stocks steadied after a volatile day, with investors focusing on talks over President Donald Trump's tax and spending bill and private-sector data offering insight on the economy.
2) Russ Brownback, Head of Global Macro Positioning for Fixed Income at BlackRock, joins for an extended discussion on Treasury Yield warnings and what yesterday's lackluster auction means for markets. The worry in debt markets is that the tax bill would add trillions of dollars to an already bulging deficit at a time when investors’ appetite is US assets is waning.
3) Terry Haines, founder at Pangaea Policy, reacts to the tax bill vote. House Republican leaders released a revised version of President Trump's tax and spending bill, which includes a higher limit on the deduction for state and local taxes and other changes to win over GOP factions.
4) Mark Douglas, CEO at MNTN, talks about going public today and raising funds at the top of the marketed range. Ryan Reynolds’ Ad Firm MNTN, Holders Raise $187 Million in IPO as the company has a market value of about $1.24 billion and a fully diluted value of about $1.6 billion, with Founder and CEO Mark Douglas set to have 26% of the voting power after the offering.
5) Lisa Mateo joins with the latest headlines in newspapers across the US, including an NYT story on anxiety-inducing wearables and a WSJ story on negotiating a best and final job offer.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg
Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern
on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.
Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch
(00:25):
us live on YouTube.
Speaker 2 (00:27):
Well.
Speaker 3 (00:27):
Stephanie Roth joins US now chief economist at Wolf Research.
The fact, Stephanie is I got a thirty year bond.
Lisa was talking it was a five eleven rounded up,
it's now a five thirteen. Are the bonvigilantes telling the
politicians what to do and does it then amend your
(00:49):
economic forecasts?
Speaker 4 (00:51):
I think there might be work that the bond vigilantes
will continue to do in the next.
Speaker 5 (00:54):
Couple of weeks.
Speaker 4 (00:55):
At this point, there's not enough that would really change policy,
but there's a real reality that we might have yields
continue to sell off such that it makes policymakers blink
to some extent.
Speaker 5 (01:06):
But we are tire there to be clear.
Speaker 6 (01:08):
You'll hire price down years.
Speaker 4 (01:10):
Ye'll higher price down, but we are not there such
that at this point, the you know, the bill will
continue to move on until this happens such that it
creates a big sell off inequities. This is not our
base case, but there's a real possibility of it.
Speaker 3 (01:25):
Is a five thirteen thirty year bond and eight percent mortgage.
Speaker 2 (01:29):
I don't know, it's not mean good folks that are
good about here go out and try to buy a
house this weekend. So Stephanie, what are you guys thinking
about this economy here? I mean again, as we think
about the tariffs. I was just reading a note by
Torsen Slock. He makes it very simple. You know, tariffs
were about three percent. Now they're on a weighted basis
about eighteen percent. That's got to impact the economy. Do
(01:49):
you guys have a recession call out there, or do
you just have a slowing economy.
Speaker 4 (01:53):
We don't have a recession call. We're looking for Actually,
growth could be above one percent this year, really okay,
somewhere between one and one and a half percent. So
you do have a big tariff hit to the economy.
With the rollbacks of China that was significant.
Speaker 2 (02:05):
Yep.
Speaker 4 (02:05):
So tariffs could weigh on the economy by about seventy
basis points. But the Reconciliation bill has a bit of
a positive impact as well. Why because the business provisions
do get pulled forward into twenty twenty five, so about
twenty basis.
Speaker 3 (02:17):
So it has stimulus like COVID type of stimulus effect.
Speaker 4 (02:22):
A lot more, a lot more modest this year. Next
year we should have actually a decent amount of stimulus
from this bill. Combination of the business provisions as well
as the individual provisions, things like no tax on tips,
no tax on overtime, that really has an impact next year.
Speaker 2 (02:37):
So that this all flows down to the consumer, which
of course is seventy percent of this US economy. How
is the consumer out there from your perspective, So part of.
Speaker 5 (02:45):
The consumer's okay, nothing that bad has happened to them.
Speaker 4 (02:48):
Jobs continue to grow, they continue to have solid wage gains,
and as long unless that can change is the consumer
will continue to chug along.
Speaker 3 (02:57):
Here, what's the biggest mystery of your research forecast? You
got an Excel spreadsheet. She's awesome at it, so yeah,
she does formulus like no one. What's the biggest hole
in that Excel spreadsheet?
Speaker 6 (03:10):
The biggest secret?
Speaker 4 (03:11):
I think the real question is the multiplier effect from
the tariffs. So you could say the tariff dollars raised,
have every dollar that gets raised from tariffs has a
one dollar impact on GDP. That's kind of the more
extreme outlook, in which case you could have a bigger
impact negative impact on the economy this year, or you
could say it has a more you know, the lower
(03:32):
end of the range, kind of zero point five. So
for every dollar that's raised in tariffs, it's about a
fifty cent hit two to GDP, which would then make
it a lot more modest. And the real impact here,
or the question is to what extent there's uncertainty that
really weighs in the economy, And being that Trump has
paired back to tariffs, it suggests a slightly lower multiplier
on this.
Speaker 3 (03:51):
Paul Gary out on the The Light Chat on YouTube,
I like learn show on this. I'm sorry, Gary kills
it welcome back to the Vulcar era.
Speaker 6 (04:00):
Young pupps. It's coming.
Speaker 3 (04:02):
I mean, it's inflammatory exactly, but I'm watching the thirty
year bond here. It's seven point rounded up five excuse me,
five point one three percent. It's not Vulcar, but it's
a shift, to.
Speaker 6 (04:15):
Say the least.
Speaker 2 (04:16):
Eric from the back room rights in Anna Wang is
arguing tariff revenue will neutralize the deficit impact.
Speaker 6 (04:23):
That's my next.
Speaker 3 (04:24):
Question is Stephanie, thank you doctor Wang for I mean,
we got help from girl.
Speaker 6 (04:28):
We got help from Wang. Today it's too too long.
Speaker 7 (04:31):
Everybody's terrors bringing money right there?
Speaker 6 (04:34):
Where's it go?
Speaker 4 (04:35):
So base cases the tariffs bring in three to four
hundred billion dollars a year, which is not nothing. It
does help to offset the deficit impact. Granted, the deficit
is still going to be somewhere between six and seven
percent over the next decade, so it's really not great.
In a positive scenario, maybe you're in the five percent range,
but you're so certainly nowhere near the three percent that
(04:56):
Besson has been targeting.
Speaker 2 (04:58):
So what is FED Chairman J. Paldow. He looks at
this legislation today, he says, does it change his outlook
at all about how he thinks about interest rates for
this economy?
Speaker 8 (05:07):
Yeah?
Speaker 4 (05:08):
I think at the margin, it reduces the odds that
the FED able to cut this year.
Speaker 5 (05:12):
We technically have two.
Speaker 4 (05:13):
Cuts on paper, but the odds are certainly lower than
that rather than more so, especially when you think about
the sort of the net impact of tariffs, which now
there's a lot less uncertainty, there's less concern around empty shelves,
which meets the consumer more likely to spend, and we
have a bit of a fiscal stimulus this year helping
to offset some of the tariff drag. And the next
(05:34):
year we're just talking about net fiscal stimulus, so growth
potentially above two percent.
Speaker 3 (05:37):
The special edition of Bloomberg Surveying. That's a historic moment
for those waking up across America.
Speaker 6 (05:43):
Two minutes to the hour this.
Speaker 3 (05:44):
Morning, Nathan Hager on air, the House passed this historic
text legislation. Thank you Terry Haynes and David Gurra for
wisdom here and Stephanie Roth briefness right now with Wolf
Research and Anna Wong out moments ago with an extensive
node including work Paul from the Yale Budget Lab and
the Text Foundation, I mean, Ernie Tedesky and the team,
(06:05):
and Maam mcguinnis these are our budget people folk.
Speaker 7 (06:08):
We will have them on air in the coming days.
Speaker 3 (06:12):
Is Stephanie is Eric mentioned with the team doctor Wang
Paul mentioning.
Speaker 6 (06:17):
You know what terror springing money they do?
Speaker 2 (06:20):
They do and you know maybe it's the tariffs. Plus
this House budget could be near deficit neutral, according to
Enna Wong. So Stephanie, what's the next data point for you?
What's the big issue for you to see where this
economy maybe tips on the margin over the next six months.
What are you looking for?
Speaker 7 (06:36):
Is it I'd like her to say six to twelve hours, yes, exactly?
Speaker 2 (06:40):
Is that labor? Is it bed? What are you looking at?
Speaker 5 (06:43):
The next thing to watch out for is labor.
Speaker 4 (06:45):
So one thing that we're watching, especially after the Supreme
Court ruled on Venezuelan's that their TPS is going to
be expiring for them, which is a hawk shoutcome that
suggests that the program chn v.
Speaker 5 (06:58):
Cuba hating a Garab woman whale.
Speaker 4 (07:00):
There's about five hundred thousand people that's held up in
courts and Trump tried to end all of their visas overnight.
This suggests that the margin that these visas might also
be ruled in a similar way, such that we might
lose about five hundred thousand people from.
Speaker 5 (07:14):
The labor force overnight.
Speaker 4 (07:15):
So the thing that we're going to be watching from
the labor market reports is what's happening with the foreign
born workforce and are we're starting to see non farm
pails shift down substantially because of the slowdown in immigration.
Speaker 6 (07:26):
Sephanie, we're off bond strategists with us.
Speaker 3 (07:28):
I got a ten year real yield not breaking out yet,
but a two point two three percent up substantially off
of the negative one percent COVID thing. I'm not back
to a four percent real yield of the year two thousand.
But do you just assume a higher inflation just to
yield dampen's business or is that an animal spirit that
(07:49):
folds into nominal GDP?
Speaker 8 (07:51):
Yeah?
Speaker 4 (07:51):
I mean I think it could damp into some extent,
But for now we might be in an environment where
growth is actually just surprising to the upside.
Speaker 3 (07:58):
Well, that's what President Trump's betting on. This is a
growthiness is there?
Speaker 2 (08:02):
Yep?
Speaker 4 (08:03):
And that might be the case, even though we're still
talking about one percent GDP growth. It's not that great
for this year, but for next year looking ahead, growth
might actually be pretty Twenty seconds.
Speaker 3 (08:10):
What are you writing about this morning? Just give me
a theme there. I don't want to take it away
from Wolf Research clients, but what's a number one message
from you this morning to your clients?
Speaker 4 (08:18):
The main message we wrote back this morning was on
the reconciliation bill. The main thing is there's there's hidden
hidden sort of spending here, in the sense that a
lot of the provisions end after four years, but if
they are extended, which is largely the assumption, that's an
additional one point two five trillion dollars in addition to
the price tag of this bill.
Speaker 5 (08:37):
This is what the bond market Brian.
Speaker 6 (08:39):
Jeff I love this.
Speaker 1 (08:44):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live
weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern.
Speaker 9 (08:51):
Listen on Applecarplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app,
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Speaker 3 (08:57):
Russ brown Beck joins us to say is it black
Rock is barely descriptive of the huge perspective.
Speaker 6 (09:05):
And the intelligence of his note.
Speaker 3 (09:07):
The fancy title is Global Macro Positioning Team, which means
that Hobart years ago, he's the one that bought the
cases of Jenny Kremel.
Speaker 2 (09:15):
In high school. I'm in college. I went up to
visit a high school buddy mine in Hobart February.
Speaker 6 (09:21):
February night. It was the coldest.
Speaker 2 (09:23):
Weather I ever experienced. I was darn near in Canada.
I felt like, what am I doing? That's the cold
and dark, cold and dark exactly. That's where Russ sped
for years out of Hobart. So, Russ, what are you
doing with this market here? I mean, there's so much uncertainty.
We've seen the equity markets go down twenty percent, retrace
a lot of that. We had a crazy treasury market
a couple of months ago. How are you guys just
(09:45):
sitting back and saying, where do we want to be
positioned in this kind of environment?
Speaker 9 (09:48):
Yep?
Speaker 10 (09:49):
So this is the super Bowl for macro. Okay, you
know the the uncertainty. And by the way, the uncertainty
has been with us for several years. And when we
had a historic FED tightening cycle, a regional banking crisis
that was scary in the moment, we had an acrimonious,
historic election last year, and now you know, an uncertain
period as policy gets rolled out, and so you know,
(10:10):
it's a wonderful opportunity in fixed income y'all. In an
earlier segment, we're talking about high real yields. It's an
incredible opportunity in fixed income markets to harness very attractive
income and do so in a very optimized way, high quality.
Speaker 3 (10:25):
But oh wise, when folks I can't say enough about
the acuity of his note. We could literally do one
hour through us and go two sentences by two sentences
through the intelligence of his note.
Speaker 6 (10:36):
Okay, that's new money captures a real yield.
Speaker 3 (10:39):
New money captures a you know, ten year yield to
four point six one percent.
Speaker 7 (10:44):
Wow.
Speaker 3 (10:45):
But the old buddies seeing price go down? Do people
take losses? How does like if you're in JGB twenty year,
you got a loss. In the US you got a loss?
Do you take losses?
Speaker 6 (10:57):
Here?
Speaker 10 (10:57):
So again you're pointing to the tactical opportunities that exist.
The way we position our multisector portfolios is to avoid
those longer duration assets that have all that volatility today.
And if you're in the front to the belly of
the curve, and then you're marrying corporate credit and securitized
assets on top of that, you know you're getting enough
income where you can ride out short term periods of
(11:18):
volatility that give you price losses from one day to
the next. Over the course of the year, that carry
just builds up night.
Speaker 3 (11:24):
How do you this is like with Ira Jersey here
it'll be the same question, how do you feel the
losses in long term paper?
Speaker 6 (11:34):
Will clear just done?
Speaker 3 (11:35):
It? To go to Friedrich Kayak on a Hiachian basis,
what's the process to clear a twenty year yield loss?
Speaker 10 (11:45):
You know, I actually think that question was answered in
twenty twenty two. That was the year that the aggregate index,
as a proxy for the fixed income market, it broke.
It had its worst down year in a generation. And
so here we are three years later, and everything seems
to be functioning reasonably well. So I think I think
we've learned that lesson. You always like to say, as
the X axis extends, you know, you have more certainties.
Speaker 3 (12:06):
Lisa, somebody listens to the show. Okay, is the axis,
folks whore ripping up the script? Is the xaxis given
this legislation, given the uncertainty of the.
Speaker 6 (12:17):
Secretary of Treasure in Trump? Is the xaxis.
Speaker 3 (12:20):
Logarithmic where there's a non linear dynamic in time right now?
Speaker 10 (12:24):
So you know, again I talked about it being the
super Bowl of macro. You know this the EBB and flow.
The narrative has been so negative, and yet underpinning all
of it is I think an incredible positive story for fundamentals,
particularly as it pertains to corporate credit, securitized assets and
the like. So, you know, I love a wall of
worry in markets, and I think underpinning it all is
(12:45):
an optimism.
Speaker 2 (12:46):
We talked about it a lot late last year. We
forgot all about it.
Speaker 10 (12:49):
All we talk about is what's what's scary today?
Speaker 2 (12:52):
How about credit? Here, Russ, how much credit risk are
you guys taking in at black Rock these days?
Speaker 10 (12:55):
So the credit markets are higher quality than they've really
ever been, certainly in my career, and they're supported by
really profound technicals. Here's a great statistic for you, so
I for you're cocktail party statistics, exactly, I need it.
The entire high yield market the index market capitalization one
point four trillion dollars. The treasury market grows by that
(13:19):
size every nine months by virtue of the deficit. So
it speaks to the deficit of yielding assets in market today.
And when you marry that with really solid fundamentals that
underpin credit quality, it's it's it's really just about where
is optimal. So you know, back when spreads widened in
the tariff event of April, we wanted to move into
(13:41):
high quality assets that had widened a significant amount those
of retraced. Now we're thinking about moving down the stack
a little bit opportunistically, taking advantage of technicals and those
positive fundamentals.
Speaker 2 (13:51):
How do you guys deal with private credit that's been
such a growth story over the last fifteen years. That
was in early in our careers we didn't have really
probably had private equity, We didn't really have private credit.
Now it's become such a big asset class. How do
you guys think about that?
Speaker 10 (14:05):
Another awesome opportunity for us. You know, we don't really
make much of a delineation between.
Speaker 7 (14:10):
Public and private markets.
Speaker 10 (14:11):
You look first and you say, am I getting enough
risk premium on the asset? And secondly, am I getting
enough illiquidity premium? And if you are, then it belongs
in the portfolio to the work of.
Speaker 3 (14:23):
This is a Fidelty years ago, the giant George Vanderhyden
and I think of Jeff Winnick and others the parlor
game of buying a twenty year zero Are you so
optimistic about total return, price up, yield down that you
can speculate on a long duration zero coupon bond full
of faith and credit?
Speaker 10 (14:43):
So you know, again, we're going to look for the
optimal opportunity set. We don't think it's at the back
end of the curve. I will say, you know, there's
a lot of barishness about term needs to be more
term premium.
Speaker 2 (14:54):
That's a very popular trade today.
Speaker 10 (14:55):
Another great statistic, only eight point seven percent of marketable
treasure are twenty years or longer. If you think about
the long aggregate index twenty years and longer, it's less
than three trillion in market capitalization. You think about long
duration assets, pension funds, insurance companies, you know estimates of
around five trillion. The technicals are pretty profound. So you
(15:16):
can push the long end of the market down in
a speculative way. Over the short run, it's really hard
to keep it down, and you've seen. This is the
third sort of bond vigilanty scare quote unquote we've had
over the past three years. The first two didn't really
play out. My guess is that this one won't either.
Speaker 2 (15:33):
Russ Tom and I've been talking about over the last
several days that thirty year treasury, which we don't talk
about very much, but the thirty year treasury is now
five point four percent. What does that tell you?
Speaker 10 (15:43):
Well, so I think if you are a long duration
asset allocator five percent for the thirty year treasury or
a thirty year corporate, that might yield to six percent
is pretty attractive relative to the opportunity set. If I'm
thinking about a sixty forty portfolio that's optimal, I want
to own that front a belly expression that I talked
about with corporate credit and securitized and if I want
(16:04):
a long duration asset, truly, I'm gonna buy equities. So
the sixty forty portfolio kind of gets you the best
of both without owning the long.
Speaker 2 (16:11):
Again, smart people like you come in here all the time,
and I hear that consistently. I want to own the
short of the belly of the curb, not necessarily take
the who's buying the duration? If you guys aren't buying it, well,
so here anybody coming in her. I love buying long
duration bonds.
Speaker 10 (16:25):
I think that there are a lot of you know,
asset liability managers that need long duration assets. And so
you think about again your insurance companies, your pension funds,
and to them, you know, five or six percent. You
think about what was possible in the decade leading into
the pandemic, you know, looking at the long bomb with
a one handle, you know, this is a much better.
Speaker 2 (16:44):
Environed Nobody wanted to talk to you back in the day. Yes,
you didn't have any We were.
Speaker 6 (16:50):
Off script. But thats your bane. How do you fold the.
Speaker 3 (16:54):
Japanese challenge into our full faith and credit US market?
Sarah Ellis at Deutsche Bank links in the Japanese people saying, Okay,
I'm out of full faith in credit US. I'm coming
over to Japan and I'm going to get a strong
end because all that money's coming back.
Speaker 6 (17:12):
Do you buy the thesis?
Speaker 2 (17:14):
So it's a very different thesis.
Speaker 10 (17:16):
You know that their fiscal dynamics are far worse than
they are in the United States. They've just come off
of yield curve control, they're going through quantitative tightening, and
they're bringing short term interest rates higher in deference to
finally a normalization of inflation higher. It's a different set
of circumstances there. Again, I'm going to turn it to
what we do in the US. We're looking at opportunities
(17:38):
if you take long Japanese government bonds and swap them
back into dollars so that you don't take the currency risk,
you can get over an eight percent yield. So we're
looking at the world through the lens of what's optimal
in building our portfolios today.
Speaker 3 (17:51):
Here's you valuable all features us on single best Idea.
Russ brownback with us with black Rock Today, just encyclopedical.
Speaker 6 (17:57):
That was just absolutely wonderful.
Speaker 1 (18:00):
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
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Speaker 3 (18:17):
Terry Haynes joins US now with pengea policy. I can't
say enough about his public service out and linked In,
not only doing his consulting with penge in all the
fancy stuff he does there, but he's been very generous
out on LinkedIn to explain this moment, Terry. We're gonna
be with you in a bid and I've got David
Gerry here with his expertise to ask some.
Speaker 6 (18:38):
Questions as well.
Speaker 3 (18:39):
Terry, how will the Senate take this football from the house?
Speaker 11 (18:45):
Well, I think they take it very much in their
own way. Tom, there is no requirement. That mean you've
tied me up with Civics one oh one, So here
I go. There's absolutely no requirement that the Senate take
the House bill as anything definitive at all.
Speaker 6 (19:00):
Uh.
Speaker 11 (19:01):
You know it has it has passed the Chamber with
all Republican votes and uh, and they have a tiny majority.
But the Senate will do this as they wish. And
I think what ends up happening here is, UH, they
end up softening some of the harder edges. So I
think the UH a lot of the debates about the
harder edges and things like medicaid and UH and and
(19:25):
phase outs for clean energy subsidies, things like that.
Speaker 7 (19:30):
Softened.
Speaker 11 (19:31):
Secondly, I do think you get a little bit of
a nod to the rising bond vigilanteism by some additional uh,
additional cuts to make sure that there's uh, there's a
little bit more deficit reduction.
Speaker 6 (19:45):
Uh.
Speaker 11 (19:46):
And and part of that, I think for for your
audience too, means that you've seen the high water mark
of salt, Because what that means is because you know,
they needed they needed salt to get votes in the House.
They don't need salt to get votes of the Senate, right,
so salts back back in the firing line.
Speaker 3 (20:07):
The President seems to have a great affinity to the
gentleman from Louisiana, much more of a distant affinity to
the gentleman from the Dakotas. What's the power that Senator
Thune has in this debate.
Speaker 11 (20:22):
Well, he's the chief cat herder. Frankly, this is a
unique process, again for your audience, because this reconciliation process
is unique because it's pretty much the only the legislation
where you need only bare majorities of the House and
the Senate in order to pass something, So you don't
need the usual sixty sixty vote roundup that provides a
(20:44):
modicum of bipartisanship. What you need is a situation. What
you need is fifty three Republican senators and that's pretty
much it. So he's the chief cat herder here. But
you know, the Senate's not like the House. The House
is very majoritarian institution. Think of the Senate in this
case as fifty three CEOs, all of whom's desires and
(21:05):
whims have to be a So.
Speaker 3 (21:06):
It's like, Paul, it's like a ten of the masters, right,
that's I guess.
Speaker 6 (21:10):
Across the nation, we say good morning to you.
Speaker 3 (21:12):
We are thrilled at this historic moment where the House
passage of the bill David Gurr understands, and I don't
that we have Terry Aynes with us with Pangaea policy
a special edition certainly a special moment for Bloomberg surveillance.
Speaker 6 (21:25):
Sweeney and I were like, we have no clue what
we're talking about.
Speaker 7 (21:28):
Bringing an adult David Gurra with Terry Haines.
Speaker 12 (21:31):
Terry, it's great to talk to you as always, and
I'd love to kind of linger on the deadline for
all of this if we could. So we have a
House speaker who managed to get this through by the
deadline that he imposed. Looming large here, of course, is
that X state the need by which the lawmakers have
to raise the dead ceiling before the warning that we've
gotten from the Treasury secretary. How much of a forcing
mechanism is that going to be? How do you see
this playing out over the course of the summer.
Speaker 11 (21:53):
You know, I'm a big fan, even in my personal life,
of the adage that work expands to fill the time
a lot. It certainly certainly that's how the Congress operates.
So what you get is so what you get is
a situation where you know, whatever the X date is
is kind of the ultimate backstop. But I'd urge folks
(22:14):
to look at this in two ways. The X date
is the ultimate backstop, whatever it is August, September, maybe
even late July.
Speaker 6 (22:22):
But the other.
Speaker 11 (22:23):
Backstop, I think in the pold more political backstop is
July fourth. The reason why I say that is that
there is you've seen out of the House urgency to
try to get this done, and momentum and building momentum
to try to get this done. The President will certainly
want to push on the Senate to keep that momentum
(22:43):
building and keep a fire lit under them. Number one.
Number two how the White House sees this, which is
not irrelevant, is that July fourth is kind of a
great X date because what you're going to have in
July fourth is three vectors. Potentially the tax bill passing,
but also for markets, the announcement of a lot of
trade deals. Hopefully that happens before then, but you'll see
(23:05):
a lot of trade deals and a lot of economic
stimulus coming out of those trade deals. And at the
same time, the report on reciprocal tariffs will come through.
So you've got all these things that they hope combine
to provide more of a direction for the economy of
an answer for rising bond vigilanteism, and the idea that
(23:29):
you're going to what you're going to see is an
economic boost out of all this.
Speaker 6 (23:32):
I whan.
Speaker 12 (23:32):
I guess the President didn't stay up through the night,
but we know he gets up for surveillance every morning,
so he's likely listening and watch this vote unfold. But
I want to ask you, Terry, if I could just
about sequencing here, to use the Washington word, And there's
been a lot of criticism here that the White House
pushed for tariffs and trade modifications before they focused wholly
on this bill. Now, with the benefit of hindsight, what
was that a mistake?
Speaker 2 (23:53):
Have we overplayed that?
Speaker 12 (23:54):
Or was this a balancing act that the White House
was able to successfully execute?
Speaker 11 (23:58):
I think a little bit more of the ladder. You know,
I wouldn't call it it's an incomplete success at best,
but certainly they've they have They've avoided the worst of
a lot of the tariffs and put themselves on track
to negotiate a lot of these major bipartisan deals. I'm
not cheerleading when I say so, it's just, you know,
that's the way the markets reacted ultimately.
Speaker 10 (24:19):
But you know, I.
Speaker 11 (24:20):
Urge people to consider that, for example, with China, what
that is is a pause. Everyone wants to say, knowingly
to themselves, to each other and themselves, well, you know
Trump's backed off. Now, it's all good, But well these
are all the same people that didn't think Trump was
going to do what he did in April to begin with.
So so i'd heard some some caution there. But the
(24:44):
way they look at it, and I'm not absolving them
by saying so, I'm just saying the way they look
at it is, you know, he's got between now and
next November, when he doesn't know if he has majorities
or not, to accomplish a lot of things. So it
was very important to get as going as possible, and
that's what they've done.
Speaker 6 (24:59):
Across some Erica.
Speaker 3 (25:00):
A conversation this morning with David Gerra of Bloomberg News
and Terry Haynes of Pangaea Policy will welcome all of you,
particularly across YouTube. Subscribe to Bloomberg Podcast. It's a new
digital distribution. Did a thing with Pimco last night, major
shout out on Serious XCM. Do you listen Paul as
Serious XM.
Speaker 6 (25:19):
One to twenty one? And well, I don't look like
Howard Stern.
Speaker 3 (25:23):
I mean, it's not gonna gonna work, but we're thrilled
to have Terry Haynes with us for this special edition
of Bloomberg Surveillance Green on the screen.
Speaker 6 (25:30):
The market does a little better right now. The vic's
twenty point three two.
Speaker 3 (25:35):
But you know, Paul, as you jump in here with
mister Haynes and mister Gerra, the thirty year bond is
a higher yield.
Speaker 7 (25:41):
Yes it is over the last twenty minutes, rounded up
five point.
Speaker 6 (25:47):
House hunting this weekend is going to be.
Speaker 2 (25:49):
A little choungee. I'm not refinancing the mortgage on the
Jersey Shore compound. Hey, Terry, the Senate gets back from
a well deserved break on June second, then they're going
to look at this bill. What's the Senate going to
do with this bill?
Speaker 4 (26:02):
Terry?
Speaker 2 (26:03):
How does that work? Uh?
Speaker 11 (26:05):
Well, they'll they'll take it up in component parts. There's
no requirement they take anything the House the House gives them,
and they probably won't. H I think what they end
up doing is softening the edges on on a lot
of the harder things that needed to get done in
order to attract Republican conservatives. Give them a fig leaf
give them a fig leaf for for fiscal fiscal continents,
(26:29):
if you will.
Speaker 6 (26:30):
Terry, Terry, I have to interrupt. The Speaker of the
House is speaking. We always take.
Speaker 7 (26:34):
Someone from Louisiana over. Terry Hayes.
Speaker 6 (26:36):
Here he is Speaker Johnson.
Speaker 11 (26:38):
Celebrate a new golden age of America.
Speaker 6 (26:41):
Thank you for being here.
Speaker 8 (26:42):
I yield next to our leaders Slee and as a
speaker said, it truly is morning in America again. You know,
when you think about all of the work that's gone
in to putting this bill together, it's one beautiful bill
for a lot of reasons.
Speaker 6 (27:02):
There are a lot of.
Speaker 8 (27:03):
Really important wins for the American people in this bill.
Speaker 6 (27:08):
And we had eleven committees come together.
Speaker 8 (27:12):
In me in hearings. Some went on over twenty four hours.
Rules Committee went over twenty hours. You had, you know,
of course the Budget Committee Chairman Arrington is the lead
author of the bill.
Speaker 6 (27:26):
All of the people that had been.
Speaker 8 (27:28):
Come together in our conference, and I think a lot
of you know, we don't all think a light. Democrats
made it very clear they didn't want to have any
part in helping get America back on track again.
Speaker 6 (27:40):
But we were never deterred when this bill could have
failed ten times over. We said we were going to.
Speaker 8 (27:48):
Get this done, and failure is not an option, and
we meant it. We knew we were fighting for the
families who had been struggling for way too long under
the failed policies of Joe Biden and all the Democrats
he did out.
Speaker 6 (28:01):
Of control of Washington for too long.
Speaker 8 (28:04):
We watched higher interest rates and higher inflation and lower
wages and a demise of the American dream that we
knew should not be permanent, but was only going to
turn around if we passed a bill to get.
Speaker 3 (28:18):
America bas Steve Callice Scaliso, I should say back to
back to Louisiana here, Paul Sweeney and Tom Keen, Lisa
Matteo Patient with a data check coming up here, and
in course Michael Barrow news including the difficult murders in
Washington overnight. The special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance were focused
on Washington.
Speaker 13 (28:38):
Good Morning ninety ninety one FM. Nathan with a great
job earlier in the morning. Fantastic, I mean briefed in
like way better we are. We have David Gerrow with us,
who's smarter than we are. Also Terry Haynes, Patient to
be with us as well.
Speaker 7 (28:51):
Terry color the.
Speaker 6 (28:52):
Moment here where.
Speaker 3 (28:54):
The House has two leaders from Louisiana versus the alleged Senate, Like,
does the House leadership talk to the Senate? What's the
body language in the white marble at Capitol Hill.
Speaker 2 (29:10):
Oh?
Speaker 11 (29:10):
Sure they talked to They talked to the Senate quite
a lot. I think Johnson was over and the senators
recently is Tuesday briefing senators on on progress and been
begging them to take the House package, which which they
won't do. So but he's got to do that.
Speaker 7 (29:26):
Yeah, they talk, They talk a lot.
Speaker 11 (29:28):
But you know, the the thing with politics that I
think a lot of folks don't, No, it's it's it's just,
you know, it's combat. Even when you have even when
you're jostling around with friendlies, you know, it's uh it's uh,
it's elbows up hockey or or elbows basketball, pick your
sporting metaphor. But uh, you know, you you've got to
(29:51):
fight for every inch and the houses. The House's job
in most legislation is to overreach.
Speaker 6 (29:58):
Uh.
Speaker 11 (29:58):
You know, you've got kind of a purest imperative where
you get you consciously reach you too much knowing you're
going to get rolled back into the middle, and that's
the Senate's job is to roll back into the middle.
So then even in a reconciliation process where only the
Republicans matter, that's exactly what they're to do here, because
they've got a different calculus among their fifty three.
Speaker 3 (30:19):
David Gurrow, quickly here before you go to Terry Haynes,
give us a vignette, David Gura, of your last week
of covering Washington, one little interview or one little moment
where you were like, are you kidding me?
Speaker 12 (30:32):
You know, I went down to Washington and sat down
with the chair of the House Budget Committe. This was
before the votes that took place over the weekend, and
it was clear just in that conversation he's somebody who
exudes a lot of confidences, Jody Rington, who has a
lot of confidence about what he's able to do. But
you saw in that committee in stark relief, just kind
of the spectrum of Republicans in this day and age.
And so he had to deal with Chip roy E
of every conservative member of the House, trying to get
(30:54):
all these folks in line. And I know that we
had Terry Haynes here saying that John Thune's job is
to be the chief cat heurder. There are a lot
of cat heurders on Capitol Hill. In the chair of
the House Budget Committee has been one of them. But
he's gotten this through.
Speaker 5 (31:05):
Terry.
Speaker 12 (31:06):
Let me ask you just about the Medicaid issue in specific,
because I think this is the one that's likely to
be a hot button issue in the Senate as well
as it wasn't in the House.
Speaker 7 (31:14):
Is there room?
Speaker 12 (31:15):
Is there is there a sense that senator senators are
going to find it palable to put in these work
requirements to make the kind of changes that we saw
Republicans in the House agree to make.
Speaker 11 (31:26):
I think they do. I think their requirements get softened
to some extent, though, Uh, you know, the the mistake
again in my Civics one on one role this morning,
the uh, I think sometimes people make the mistake of
looking at these things in silos. In other words, you know,
all the matters is the Medicaid things. Let's talk about that.
Speaker 4 (31:44):
Uh.
Speaker 11 (31:45):
They had they had a bogging to meet in the House,
a specific number of efficiencies that the that the committee
that oversees Medicaid needed to make. They met that in
part through the work requirements and everything else. But I
think the Senate approach is that with a lot of skepticism,
and I do think a lot of those things get softened.
(32:05):
You know, you've got to You've already had noises from
a lot of relatively moderate Republican senators to that effect
that they're concerned about concerned about how those how those
work requirements and other things might roll out. That they
will they'll want to make sure the focus truly is
on what the President calls waste, fraud, and abuse. They'll
(32:26):
generally be okay with that, but if it strays out
into into substance, the Senate's going to be four square
against that, not just because they want to keep the
programs focus intact, but also because they understand that the
Republicans generally in the midterms pay a large political price
if that's not so. Uh, you know, what they need
(32:46):
to be able to do is to go out when
this bill is done and say, look, we didn't touch
medicaid substance. All we're doing is creating efficiencies and how
the program is administered, and they certainly need for that.
They will say, so, you know, and we've fixed that
so you know, I think that's going to be the
Senate's function, and if to the extent that they lose
(33:08):
some savings there, they look for savings elsewhere, which is
one reason, as I say, I think things like Salter
at risk.
Speaker 2 (33:15):
Terry, how big of a win is this for President Trump?
Speaker 11 (33:20):
It's the big win and that's it, you know, and
being able to heard these particularly frascius Cats, get things
done and get them done on time. With the creation
of some momentum around this in the first half of
the year, when by comparison, the twenty seventeen tax bill
took literally all year, it didn't didn't go to final
(33:43):
until December, that's a big accomplishment. That shows a lot
of urgency on the part of Republicans, So that's positive
for them.
Speaker 6 (33:51):
You know.
Speaker 11 (33:52):
Trick is to keep the fire lit under the Senate
and make sure that he doesn't need to use is
the ultimate backstop of the UH of the debt ceiling
x states as something UH. But you know, I can
actually roll that forward and make that happen even faster,
(34:13):
which probably helps him economically as well worldwide.
Speaker 3 (34:16):
Terry Hayes with this Pangaea policy and David Gura of
the big take in Bloomberg News.
Speaker 7 (34:21):
Ger and I and Lisa were in awe of discipline.
Paul Sweeney, he's yet to ask about salt for those.
Speaker 3 (34:29):
For those, it's you know, it's just a New York, Paul,
it's a California in four or five other states.
Speaker 2 (34:34):
Is Matt Miller has been pounding on this with the
window here of our studio.
Speaker 7 (34:38):
You can't shut him up.
Speaker 2 (34:40):
So, Terry, I mean, salt, salt, it's it's a big issue.
It's where are we on this? So, Terry, how does
this salt situation stack up?
Speaker 6 (34:51):
Well?
Speaker 11 (34:51):
I think it's uh, yeah, I think And I told
markets yesterday, I thought that what they had to look
out for here is the you know, not not taking
their their big salts and uh and going away. But
because I think the world in the Senate's going to
be slid light salt or no salt pretent really really yeah,
(35:12):
I think they probably make a nod to it in
the end, but much less. Uh. And the reason simple,
The only reason why salt is even in this bill
is because of politics. They need to get a few
New York, New Jersey, California members on board and uh,
but that really doesn't exist in the Senate today. I'm
not aware of a single senator who you know, who
(35:34):
it's a make or break vote for. And of course
all the all the blue state senators are all Democrats,
so uh, there's no need to to coddle there. So uh,
you know you did? I think you have a haircut
here from from from what's the House bill?
Speaker 3 (35:50):
If folks, it's a clinic with Terry Haynes. I can't
say enough his efforts out on LinkedIn. Just literally it's
worth it to sign up for LinkedIn, just to get
penji up policy and the daily brief from Terry Hayes
that you see out there. Terry, Thank you, generous of
you at this historic moment to be with.
Speaker 1 (36:11):
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay.
Speaker 9 (36:18):
And Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app.
Speaker 1 (36:20):
You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube
and always on the Bloomberg Terminal.
Speaker 2 (36:26):
Mark Douglas is the CEO of a company called Mountain
and the company just went public today. They're going to
start training today. MNTN is a ticker symbol. They raised
one hundred and eighty seven million dollars. They sold eleven
point seven million shares at sixteen bucks, So a solid
start there for Mountain Marks on the I believe in
your Socker chains floor right now, Mark Douglas, CEO Mountain
(36:48):
joins us. Mark, talk to us about the IPO process here.
What was a message you guys were delivering to prospective
shareholders here during your IPO.
Speaker 14 (36:58):
Well, I think the key message was that we had
created a new segment of the television advertising market where
we're bringing small and mid sized companies into the market
for the first time on our platform where they can
advertise on TV the same way they could previously do.
Speaker 2 (37:14):
On search and social.
Speaker 14 (37:16):
And so our customers have responded to that and we
very please, like all the investors we met with on
the road show responded just as well.
Speaker 3 (37:24):
When you go into a meeting, do you take Ryan
Reynolds into the meeting.
Speaker 14 (37:28):
Well, he showed up on the teaching you know, the
first day of a road show you meet with all
the banks and all the people, and he was there.
Was it was pretty fun meeting, so we had a
good time.
Speaker 6 (37:39):
So what's the distinction here? Help Paul and me. We're
on on YouTube it's building every day.
Speaker 3 (37:43):
Mark, We're just overwhelmed by the you know, as Colin
of the Twins says, a discoverability factor.
Speaker 7 (37:50):
How is ed revenue going to fold into YouTube.
Speaker 3 (37:54):
Creators, whether they're hipsters like Lisa Mateo's kids or their
fossils like me.
Speaker 14 (38:01):
Yeah, so YouTube, something like YouTube, it's not competing with
something like stream with streaming television, which is the market
that we're in. It's actually people are just expanding their
entertainment consumption. So more people watch TV a day than
use social media. It's the highest engagement channel of any
entertainment medium. So you see streaming growing obviously, YouTube, social
(38:24):
all continue to grow as people just consume more content
and as a result, you know, companies or small mid
sized businesses can now connect with those people and do
that with Mountain, do that obviously with Google and so forth.
So we're you know, it's it's great for everyone.
Speaker 6 (38:39):
Mark.
Speaker 2 (38:39):
The month of May is a very important part of
the year for global television business. Here we have the
upfronts where the broadcasting cable networks and pretty much everybody
else out there is trying to sell adspace shows. Everybody
what they're going to be broadcasting in the upcoming year
and they ask advertisers to step up and commit dollars
for the upcoming levision decision. How are you episode fronts
(39:02):
this year and how would you characterize the upfronts this year?
And what are advertisers thinking about with maybe some uncertain
economic times.
Speaker 14 (39:10):
Yeah, so I think the advertisers are there for the upfronts.
And the thing that I think the whole industry is
really excited about is live sports on streaming. So you
see ESPN and other networks really focused on live sports
is kind of number one conversation I have with the
leaders at these networks. And so I think the upfronts
will be fine. I think our customers will do great.
(39:32):
They'll they'll won't participate in the upfronts, but they will
participate in the availability of live sports is kind of
the year of live sports.
Speaker 2 (39:39):
So that's what you're going to see.
Speaker 3 (39:40):
Mark Douglas, thank you for the time. Is the chief
executive officer Mountain. The symbol mm TN their initial public
offering today.
Speaker 1 (39:48):
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto
with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live
on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just
say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 6 (40:06):
Lisa Matteo. Here she is with newspapers.
Speaker 15 (40:08):
Okay, this is going to be all about the Wellness Hour.
Speaker 7 (40:11):
Okay, help.
Speaker 15 (40:16):
Captain, I'm all about the wellness And this is the
story from the New York Times about those wearable devices.
You heard it, like the r ring, the Apple watches,
the fit bits. Okay, so these are devices that track
your biometric data, right, you have body temperature, heart rate,
blood pressure, how much rem sleep you get. But a
lot of users say they enjoy it because it keeps
them on top of, you know, all their data. But
(40:37):
others are saying it's starting to make them anxious. They're
getting a little bit compulsive, like they're checking their stats
all the time. They're freaking out, they're trying to make
an appointment for the doctor. The doctor can't see them,
so then their stats good even worse. So it's becoming
this whole phenomenon like, yes, you know, it's great, but
does it also make you a little bit too self conscious?
Speaker 6 (40:55):
Oh of course, did you check?
Speaker 7 (40:58):
I just got the watch on her risk.
Speaker 15 (41:00):
Have to watch, but I just use it to track
like my workouts watch.
Speaker 3 (41:05):
We have two eye watches at home that sit on
the table. We couldn't figure out how to do it.
It's too complex.
Speaker 15 (41:11):
I mean it's pretty good, like the heart, like if
I ever feel my heart kind of pacing, I'll check it.
I can do it, you know here on my watch
and just say.
Speaker 2 (41:17):
What do you do? And then I.
Speaker 3 (41:20):
Exactly, I'm glad that my heart was pacing what she
was wearing me and meal Matt Gala and you know,
thank god I had my apple I watched to say.
Speaker 2 (41:31):
Exactly where you god steps on Tuesday? How about that?
Speaker 6 (41:34):
See?
Speaker 7 (41:34):
And how do you know that?
Speaker 6 (41:35):
Do you need to do ten thousands stations?
Speaker 15 (41:39):
That is a recommended That is a recommended ten thousands?
Speaker 6 (41:42):
Do you do ten thousand steps to day?
Speaker 8 (41:44):
I do?
Speaker 15 (41:45):
I walked to and from the train and subway back home.
Speaker 2 (41:47):
Yeah, I do. And the workout count too.
Speaker 15 (41:51):
Okay, this one's tough.
Speaker 2 (41:53):
Okay.
Speaker 15 (41:53):
So we were talking about the next Pacers game, right, Okay,
a lot of people paid some big bucks to watch.
Speaker 2 (41:58):
And excluse at the garden.
Speaker 15 (42:00):
It's at a record for seat prices. So this is
according to boardroom. They pointed to data from tickpic and
it shows the average price for tickets to Game one
at the Garden record setting one and ninety three dollars,
making it the most expensive NBA Conference Final game ever. Now,
if you look at it just getting in the door, Okay,
the current get in price for Game one is five hundred.
(42:22):
Was five hundred and eighty dollars. That's nearly double the
price cab tag for Game three over in Indianapolis. So
it's just the anticipation, right, We've been talking about this.
People have been waiting for this time, and they're willing
to pay whether they win or not.
Speaker 3 (42:35):
I've been like two games in my life. I'm ignorant,
Paul is the magic of the NBA. There's no boards
and glass between the fans and.
Speaker 10 (42:43):
The ice, and there's no mask the.
Speaker 2 (42:46):
Player times, there's no mass, there's noll and so you
really get to know who these people are and.
Speaker 6 (42:51):
It's almost like a gladiator thing.
Speaker 2 (42:53):
In The NBA does a great great job of developing
and celebrating and highlighting and showcasing their store, whether it's
you know, Michael Jordan or Lebron James or Steph Curry
or whomever. They do a great job doing that, and
it's it's you know, after the NFL, it's the NBA game.
Speaker 15 (43:09):
Truth was, I was looking at StubHub for you for
the next game courtside eleven thousand dollars and then at
the top, yeah, at per ticket at the top, way
at the top, just over seven hundred bucks.
Speaker 5 (43:19):
Tickets still available.
Speaker 7 (43:20):
Okay, okay, one.
Speaker 15 (43:22):
More story slipping quick, Okay, I'll slip it in here.
Speaker 2 (43:24):
Okay.
Speaker 15 (43:24):
So Wall Street Journal says you can still negotiate a
best and final offer even though it's a competitive labor market.
Even if the salary is set. They say there's other
places for wiggle room. So they say, ask for things
like signing bonus, more flexible schedule, bigger title, maybe an
extra week of vacation. Some people are doing like as is,
but with an agreement to revisit this later. But they
(43:47):
say it's not something for everyone. You know, you have
to really be competitive and be in there.
Speaker 8 (43:51):
Yes.
Speaker 1 (43:52):
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,
and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday,
seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com. The
iHeartRadio app tune In, and the Bloomberg Business App. You
can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and
(44:13):
always on the Bloomberg terminal
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg
Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern
on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.
Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch
(00:25):
us live on YouTube.
Speaker 2 (00:27):
Well.
Speaker 3 (00:27):
Stephanie Roth joins US now chief economist at Wolf Research.
The fact, Stephanie is I got a thirty year bond.
Lisa was talking it was a five eleven rounded up,
it's now a five thirteen. Are the bonvigilantes telling the
politicians what to do and does it then amend your
(00:49):
economic forecasts?
Speaker 4 (00:51):
I think there might be work that the bond vigilantes
will continue to do in the next.
Speaker 5 (00:54):
Couple of weeks.
Speaker 4 (00:55):
At this point, there's not enough that would really change policy,
but there's a real reality that we might have yields
continue to sell off such that it makes policymakers blink
to some extent.
Speaker 5 (01:06):
But we are tire there to be clear.
Speaker 6 (01:08):
You'll hire price down years.
Speaker 4 (01:10):
Ye'll higher price down, but we are not there such
that at this point, the you know, the bill will
continue to move on until this happens such that it
creates a big sell off inequities. This is not our
base case, but there's a real possibility of it.
Speaker 3 (01:25):
Is a five thirteen thirty year bond and eight percent mortgage.
Speaker 2 (01:29):
I don't know, it's not mean good folks that are
good about here go out and try to buy a
house this weekend. So Stephanie, what are you guys thinking
about this economy here? I mean again, as we think
about the tariffs. I was just reading a note by
Torsen Slock. He makes it very simple. You know, tariffs
were about three percent. Now they're on a weighted basis
about eighteen percent. That's got to impact the economy. Do
(01:49):
you guys have a recession call out there, or do
you just have a slowing economy.
Speaker 4 (01:53):
We don't have a recession call. We're looking for Actually,
growth could be above one percent this year, really okay,
somewhere between one and one and a half percent. So
you do have a big tariff hit to the economy.
With the rollbacks of China that was significant.
Speaker 2 (02:05):
Yep.
Speaker 4 (02:05):
So tariffs could weigh on the economy by about seventy
basis points. But the Reconciliation bill has a bit of
a positive impact as well. Why because the business provisions
do get pulled forward into twenty twenty five, so about
twenty basis.
Speaker 3 (02:17):
So it has stimulus like COVID type of stimulus effect.
Speaker 4 (02:22):
A lot more, a lot more modest this year. Next
year we should have actually a decent amount of stimulus
from this bill. Combination of the business provisions as well
as the individual provisions, things like no tax on tips,
no tax on overtime, that really has an impact next year.
Speaker 2 (02:37):
So that this all flows down to the consumer, which
of course is seventy percent of this US economy. How
is the consumer out there from your perspective, So part of.
Speaker 5 (02:45):
The consumer's okay, nothing that bad has happened to them.
Speaker 4 (02:48):
Jobs continue to grow, they continue to have solid wage gains,
and as long unless that can change is the consumer
will continue to chug along.
Speaker 3 (02:57):
Here, what's the biggest mystery of your research forecast? You
got an Excel spreadsheet. She's awesome at it, so yeah,
she does formulus like no one. What's the biggest hole
in that Excel spreadsheet?
Speaker 6 (03:10):
The biggest secret?
Speaker 4 (03:11):
I think the real question is the multiplier effect from
the tariffs. So you could say the tariff dollars raised,
have every dollar that gets raised from tariffs has a
one dollar impact on GDP. That's kind of the more
extreme outlook, in which case you could have a bigger
impact negative impact on the economy this year, or you
could say it has a more you know, the lower
(03:32):
end of the range, kind of zero point five. So
for every dollar that's raised in tariffs, it's about a
fifty cent hit two to GDP, which would then make
it a lot more modest. And the real impact here,
or the question is to what extent there's uncertainty that
really weighs in the economy, And being that Trump has
paired back to tariffs, it suggests a slightly lower multiplier
on this.
Speaker 3 (03:51):
Paul Gary out on the The Light Chat on YouTube,
I like learn show on this. I'm sorry, Gary kills
it welcome back to the Vulcar era.
Speaker 6 (04:00):
Young pupps. It's coming.
Speaker 3 (04:02):
I mean, it's inflammatory exactly, but I'm watching the thirty
year bond here. It's seven point rounded up five excuse me,
five point one three percent. It's not Vulcar, but it's
a shift, to.
Speaker 6 (04:15):
Say the least.
Speaker 2 (04:16):
Eric from the back room rights in Anna Wang is
arguing tariff revenue will neutralize the deficit impact.
Speaker 6 (04:23):
That's my next.
Speaker 3 (04:24):
Question is Stephanie, thank you doctor Wang for I mean,
we got help from girl.
Speaker 6 (04:28):
We got help from Wang. Today it's too too long.
Speaker 7 (04:31):
Everybody's terrors bringing money right there?
Speaker 6 (04:34):
Where's it go?
Speaker 4 (04:35):
So base cases the tariffs bring in three to four
hundred billion dollars a year, which is not nothing. It
does help to offset the deficit impact. Granted, the deficit
is still going to be somewhere between six and seven
percent over the next decade, so it's really not great.
In a positive scenario, maybe you're in the five percent range,
but you're so certainly nowhere near the three percent that
(04:56):
Besson has been targeting.
Speaker 2 (04:58):
So what is FED Chairman J. Paldow. He looks at
this legislation today, he says, does it change his outlook
at all about how he thinks about interest rates for
this economy?
Speaker 8 (05:07):
Yeah?
Speaker 4 (05:08):
I think at the margin, it reduces the odds that
the FED able to cut this year.
Speaker 5 (05:12):
We technically have two.
Speaker 4 (05:13):
Cuts on paper, but the odds are certainly lower than
that rather than more so, especially when you think about
the sort of the net impact of tariffs, which now
there's a lot less uncertainty, there's less concern around empty shelves,
which meets the consumer more likely to spend, and we
have a bit of a fiscal stimulus this year helping
to offset some of the tariff drag. And the next
(05:34):
year we're just talking about net fiscal stimulus, so growth
potentially above two percent.
Speaker 3 (05:37):
The special edition of Bloomberg Surveying. That's a historic moment
for those waking up across America.
Speaker 6 (05:43):
Two minutes to the hour this.
Speaker 3 (05:44):
Morning, Nathan Hager on air, the House passed this historic
text legislation. Thank you Terry Haynes and David Gurra for
wisdom here and Stephanie Roth briefness right now with Wolf
Research and Anna Wong out moments ago with an extensive
node including work Paul from the Yale Budget Lab and
the Text Foundation, I mean, Ernie Tedesky and the team,
(06:05):
and Maam mcguinnis these are our budget people folk.
Speaker 7 (06:08):
We will have them on air in the coming days.
Speaker 3 (06:12):
Is Stephanie is Eric mentioned with the team doctor Wang
Paul mentioning.
Speaker 6 (06:17):
You know what terror springing money they do?
Speaker 2 (06:20):
They do and you know maybe it's the tariffs. Plus
this House budget could be near deficit neutral, according to
Enna Wong. So Stephanie, what's the next data point for you?
What's the big issue for you to see where this
economy maybe tips on the margin over the next six months.
What are you looking for?
Speaker 7 (06:36):
Is it I'd like her to say six to twelve hours, yes, exactly?
Speaker 2 (06:40):
Is that labor? Is it bed? What are you looking at?
Speaker 5 (06:43):
The next thing to watch out for is labor.
Speaker 4 (06:45):
So one thing that we're watching, especially after the Supreme
Court ruled on Venezuelan's that their TPS is going to
be expiring for them, which is a hawk shoutcome that
suggests that the program chn v.
Speaker 5 (06:58):
Cuba hating a Garab woman whale.
Speaker 4 (07:00):
There's about five hundred thousand people that's held up in
courts and Trump tried to end all of their visas overnight.
This suggests that the margin that these visas might also
be ruled in a similar way, such that we might
lose about five hundred thousand people from.
Speaker 5 (07:14):
The labor force overnight.
Speaker 4 (07:15):
So the thing that we're going to be watching from
the labor market reports is what's happening with the foreign
born workforce and are we're starting to see non farm
pails shift down substantially because of the slowdown in immigration.
Speaker 6 (07:26):
Sephanie, we're off bond strategists with us.
Speaker 3 (07:28):
I got a ten year real yield not breaking out yet,
but a two point two three percent up substantially off
of the negative one percent COVID thing. I'm not back
to a four percent real yield of the year two thousand.
But do you just assume a higher inflation just to
yield dampen's business or is that an animal spirit that
(07:49):
folds into nominal GDP?
Speaker 8 (07:51):
Yeah?
Speaker 4 (07:51):
I mean I think it could damp into some extent,
But for now we might be in an environment where
growth is actually just surprising to the upside.
Speaker 3 (07:58):
Well, that's what President Trump's betting on. This is a
growthiness is there?
Speaker 2 (08:02):
Yep?
Speaker 4 (08:03):
And that might be the case, even though we're still
talking about one percent GDP growth. It's not that great
for this year, but for next year looking ahead, growth
might actually be pretty Twenty seconds.
Speaker 3 (08:10):
What are you writing about this morning? Just give me
a theme there. I don't want to take it away
from Wolf Research clients, but what's a number one message
from you this morning to your clients?
Speaker 4 (08:18):
The main message we wrote back this morning was on
the reconciliation bill. The main thing is there's there's hidden
hidden sort of spending here, in the sense that a
lot of the provisions end after four years, but if
they are extended, which is largely the assumption, that's an
additional one point two five trillion dollars in addition to
the price tag of this bill.
Speaker 5 (08:37):
This is what the bond market Brian.
Speaker 6 (08:39):
Jeff I love this.
Speaker 1 (08:44):
You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live
weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern.
Speaker 9 (08:51):
Listen on Applecarplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app,
or watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 3 (08:57):
Russ brown Beck joins us to say is it black
Rock is barely descriptive of the huge perspective.
Speaker 6 (09:05):
And the intelligence of his note.
Speaker 3 (09:07):
The fancy title is Global Macro Positioning Team, which means
that Hobart years ago, he's the one that bought the
cases of Jenny Kremel.
Speaker 2 (09:15):
In high school. I'm in college. I went up to
visit a high school buddy mine in Hobart February.
Speaker 6 (09:21):
February night. It was the coldest.
Speaker 2 (09:23):
Weather I ever experienced. I was darn near in Canada.
I felt like, what am I doing? That's the cold
and dark, cold and dark exactly. That's where Russ sped
for years out of Hobart. So, Russ, what are you
doing with this market here? I mean, there's so much uncertainty.
We've seen the equity markets go down twenty percent, retrace
a lot of that. We had a crazy treasury market
a couple of months ago. How are you guys just
(09:45):
sitting back and saying, where do we want to be
positioned in this kind of environment?
Speaker 9 (09:48):
Yep?
Speaker 10 (09:49):
So this is the super Bowl for macro. Okay, you
know the the uncertainty. And by the way, the uncertainty
has been with us for several years. And when we
had a historic FED tightening cycle, a regional banking crisis
that was scary in the moment, we had an acrimonious,
historic election last year, and now you know, an uncertain
period as policy gets rolled out, and so you know,
(10:10):
it's a wonderful opportunity in fixed income y'all. In an
earlier segment, we're talking about high real yields. It's an
incredible opportunity in fixed income markets to harness very attractive
income and do so in a very optimized way, high quality.
Speaker 3 (10:25):
But oh wise, when folks I can't say enough about
the acuity of his note. We could literally do one
hour through us and go two sentences by two sentences
through the intelligence of his note.
Speaker 6 (10:36):
Okay, that's new money captures a real yield.
Speaker 3 (10:39):
New money captures a you know, ten year yield to
four point six one percent.
Speaker 7 (10:44):
Wow.
Speaker 3 (10:45):
But the old buddies seeing price go down? Do people
take losses? How does like if you're in JGB twenty year,
you got a loss. In the US you got a loss?
Do you take losses?
Speaker 6 (10:57):
Here?
Speaker 10 (10:57):
So again you're pointing to the tactical opportunities that exist.
The way we position our multisector portfolios is to avoid
those longer duration assets that have all that volatility today.
And if you're in the front to the belly of
the curve, and then you're marrying corporate credit and securitized
assets on top of that, you know you're getting enough
income where you can ride out short term periods of
(11:18):
volatility that give you price losses from one day to
the next. Over the course of the year, that carry
just builds up night.
Speaker 3 (11:24):
How do you this is like with Ira Jersey here
it'll be the same question, how do you feel the
losses in long term paper?
Speaker 6 (11:34):
Will clear just done?
Speaker 3 (11:35):
It? To go to Friedrich Kayak on a Hiachian basis,
what's the process to clear a twenty year yield loss?
Speaker 10 (11:45):
You know, I actually think that question was answered in
twenty twenty two. That was the year that the aggregate index,
as a proxy for the fixed income market, it broke.
It had its worst down year in a generation. And
so here we are three years later, and everything seems
to be functioning reasonably well. So I think I think
we've learned that lesson. You always like to say, as
the X axis extends, you know, you have more certainties.
Speaker 3 (12:06):
Lisa, somebody listens to the show. Okay, is the axis,
folks whore ripping up the script? Is the xaxis given
this legislation, given the uncertainty of the.
Speaker 6 (12:17):
Secretary of Treasure in Trump? Is the xaxis.
Speaker 3 (12:20):
Logarithmic where there's a non linear dynamic in time right now?
Speaker 10 (12:24):
So you know, again I talked about it being the
super Bowl of macro. You know this the EBB and flow.
The narrative has been so negative, and yet underpinning all
of it is I think an incredible positive story for fundamentals,
particularly as it pertains to corporate credit, securitized assets and
the like. So, you know, I love a wall of
worry in markets, and I think underpinning it all is
(12:45):
an optimism.
Speaker 2 (12:46):
We talked about it a lot late last year. We
forgot all about it.
Speaker 10 (12:49):
All we talk about is what's what's scary today?
Speaker 2 (12:52):
How about credit? Here, Russ, how much credit risk are
you guys taking in at black Rock these days?
Speaker 10 (12:55):
So the credit markets are higher quality than they've really
ever been, certainly in my career, and they're supported by
really profound technicals. Here's a great statistic for you, so
I for you're cocktail party statistics, exactly, I need it.
The entire high yield market the index market capitalization one
point four trillion dollars. The treasury market grows by that
(13:19):
size every nine months by virtue of the deficit. So
it speaks to the deficit of yielding assets in market today.
And when you marry that with really solid fundamentals that
underpin credit quality, it's it's it's really just about where
is optimal. So you know, back when spreads widened in
the tariff event of April, we wanted to move into
(13:41):
high quality assets that had widened a significant amount those
of retraced. Now we're thinking about moving down the stack
a little bit opportunistically, taking advantage of technicals and those
positive fundamentals.
Speaker 2 (13:51):
How do you guys deal with private credit that's been
such a growth story over the last fifteen years. That
was in early in our careers we didn't have really
probably had private equity, We didn't really have private credit.
Now it's become such a big asset class. How do
you guys think about that?
Speaker 10 (14:05):
Another awesome opportunity for us. You know, we don't really
make much of a delineation between.
Speaker 7 (14:10):
Public and private markets.
Speaker 10 (14:11):
You look first and you say, am I getting enough
risk premium on the asset? And secondly, am I getting
enough illiquidity premium? And if you are, then it belongs
in the portfolio to the work of.
Speaker 3 (14:23):
This is a Fidelty years ago, the giant George Vanderhyden
and I think of Jeff Winnick and others the parlor
game of buying a twenty year zero Are you so
optimistic about total return, price up, yield down that you
can speculate on a long duration zero coupon bond full
of faith and credit?
Speaker 10 (14:43):
So you know, again, we're going to look for the
optimal opportunity set. We don't think it's at the back
end of the curve. I will say, you know, there's
a lot of barishness about term needs to be more
term premium.
Speaker 2 (14:54):
That's a very popular trade today.
Speaker 10 (14:55):
Another great statistic, only eight point seven percent of marketable
treasure are twenty years or longer. If you think about
the long aggregate index twenty years and longer, it's less
than three trillion in market capitalization. You think about long
duration assets, pension funds, insurance companies, you know estimates of
around five trillion. The technicals are pretty profound. So you
(15:16):
can push the long end of the market down in
a speculative way. Over the short run, it's really hard
to keep it down, and you've seen. This is the
third sort of bond vigilanty scare quote unquote we've had
over the past three years. The first two didn't really
play out. My guess is that this one won't either.
Speaker 2 (15:33):
Russ Tom and I've been talking about over the last
several days that thirty year treasury, which we don't talk
about very much, but the thirty year treasury is now
five point four percent. What does that tell you?
Speaker 10 (15:43):
Well, so I think if you are a long duration
asset allocator five percent for the thirty year treasury or
a thirty year corporate, that might yield to six percent
is pretty attractive relative to the opportunity set. If I'm
thinking about a sixty forty portfolio that's optimal, I want
to own that front a belly expression that I talked
about with corporate credit and securitized and if I want
(16:04):
a long duration asset, truly, I'm gonna buy equities. So
the sixty forty portfolio kind of gets you the best
of both without owning the long.
Speaker 2 (16:11):
Again, smart people like you come in here all the time,
and I hear that consistently. I want to own the
short of the belly of the curb, not necessarily take
the who's buying the duration? If you guys aren't buying it, well,
so here anybody coming in her. I love buying long
duration bonds.
Speaker 10 (16:25):
I think that there are a lot of you know,
asset liability managers that need long duration assets. And so
you think about again your insurance companies, your pension funds,
and to them, you know, five or six percent. You
think about what was possible in the decade leading into
the pandemic, you know, looking at the long bomb with
a one handle, you know, this is a much better.
Speaker 2 (16:44):
Environed Nobody wanted to talk to you back in the day. Yes,
you didn't have any We were.
Speaker 6 (16:50):
Off script. But thats your bane. How do you fold the.
Speaker 3 (16:54):
Japanese challenge into our full faith and credit US market?
Sarah Ellis at Deutsche Bank links in the Japanese people saying, Okay,
I'm out of full faith in credit US. I'm coming
over to Japan and I'm going to get a strong
end because all that money's coming back.
Speaker 6 (17:12):
Do you buy the thesis?
Speaker 2 (17:14):
So it's a very different thesis.
Speaker 10 (17:16):
You know that their fiscal dynamics are far worse than
they are in the United States. They've just come off
of yield curve control, they're going through quantitative tightening, and
they're bringing short term interest rates higher in deference to
finally a normalization of inflation higher. It's a different set
of circumstances there. Again, I'm going to turn it to
what we do in the US. We're looking at opportunities
(17:38):
if you take long Japanese government bonds and swap them
back into dollars so that you don't take the currency risk,
you can get over an eight percent yield. So we're
looking at the world through the lens of what's optimal
in building our portfolios today.
Speaker 3 (17:51):
Here's you valuable all features us on single best Idea.
Russ brownback with us with black Rock Today, just encyclopedical.
Speaker 6 (17:57):
That was just absolutely wonderful.
Speaker 1 (18:00):
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay.
Speaker 9 (18:06):
And Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.
Speaker 1 (18:09):
You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our
flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 3 (18:17):
Terry Haynes joins US now with pengea policy. I can't
say enough about his public service out and linked In,
not only doing his consulting with penge in all the
fancy stuff he does there, but he's been very generous
out on LinkedIn to explain this moment, Terry. We're gonna
be with you in a bid and I've got David
Gerry here with his expertise to ask some.
Speaker 6 (18:38):
Questions as well.
Speaker 3 (18:39):
Terry, how will the Senate take this football from the house?
Speaker 11 (18:45):
Well, I think they take it very much in their
own way. Tom, there is no requirement. That mean you've
tied me up with Civics one oh one, So here
I go. There's absolutely no requirement that the Senate take
the House bill as anything definitive at all.
Speaker 6 (19:00):
Uh.
Speaker 11 (19:01):
You know it has it has passed the Chamber with
all Republican votes and uh, and they have a tiny majority.
But the Senate will do this as they wish. And
I think what ends up happening here is, UH, they
end up softening some of the harder edges. So I
think the UH a lot of the debates about the
harder edges and things like medicaid and UH and and
(19:25):
phase outs for clean energy subsidies, things like that.
Speaker 7 (19:30):
Softened.
Speaker 11 (19:31):
Secondly, I do think you get a little bit of
a nod to the rising bond vigilanteism by some additional uh,
additional cuts to make sure that there's uh, there's a
little bit more deficit reduction.
Speaker 6 (19:45):
Uh.
Speaker 11 (19:46):
And and part of that, I think for for your
audience too, means that you've seen the high water mark
of salt, Because what that means is because you know,
they needed they needed salt to get votes in the House.
They don't need salt to get votes of the Senate, right,
so salts back back in the firing line.
Speaker 3 (20:07):
The President seems to have a great affinity to the
gentleman from Louisiana, much more of a distant affinity to
the gentleman from the Dakotas. What's the power that Senator
Thune has in this debate.
Speaker 11 (20:22):
Well, he's the chief cat herder. Frankly, this is a
unique process, again for your audience, because this reconciliation process
is unique because it's pretty much the only the legislation
where you need only bare majorities of the House and
the Senate in order to pass something, So you don't
need the usual sixty sixty vote roundup that provides a
(20:44):
modicum of bipartisanship. What you need is a situation. What
you need is fifty three Republican senators and that's pretty
much it. So he's the chief cat herder here. But
you know, the Senate's not like the House. The House
is very majoritarian institution. Think of the Senate in this
case as fifty three CEOs, all of whom's desires and
(21:05):
whims have to be a So.
Speaker 3 (21:06):
It's like, Paul, it's like a ten of the masters, right,
that's I guess.
Speaker 6 (21:10):
Across the nation, we say good morning to you.
Speaker 3 (21:12):
We are thrilled at this historic moment where the House
passage of the bill David Gurr understands, and I don't
that we have Terry Aynes with us with Pangaea policy
a special edition certainly a special moment for Bloomberg surveillance.
Speaker 6 (21:25):
Sweeney and I were like, we have no clue what
we're talking about.
Speaker 7 (21:28):
Bringing an adult David Gurra with Terry Haines.
Speaker 12 (21:31):
Terry, it's great to talk to you as always, and
I'd love to kind of linger on the deadline for
all of this if we could. So we have a
House speaker who managed to get this through by the
deadline that he imposed. Looming large here, of course, is
that X state the need by which the lawmakers have
to raise the dead ceiling before the warning that we've
gotten from the Treasury secretary. How much of a forcing
mechanism is that going to be? How do you see
this playing out over the course of the summer.
Speaker 11 (21:53):
You know, I'm a big fan, even in my personal life,
of the adage that work expands to fill the time
a lot. It certainly certainly that's how the Congress operates.
So what you get is so what you get is
a situation where you know, whatever the X date is
is kind of the ultimate backstop. But I'd urge folks
(22:14):
to look at this in two ways. The X date
is the ultimate backstop, whatever it is August, September, maybe
even late July.
Speaker 6 (22:22):
But the other.
Speaker 11 (22:23):
Backstop, I think in the pold more political backstop is
July fourth. The reason why I say that is that
there is you've seen out of the House urgency to
try to get this done, and momentum and building momentum
to try to get this done. The President will certainly
want to push on the Senate to keep that momentum
(22:43):
building and keep a fire lit under them. Number one.
Number two how the White House sees this, which is
not irrelevant, is that July fourth is kind of a
great X date because what you're going to have in
July fourth is three vectors. Potentially the tax bill passing,
but also for markets, the announcement of a lot of
trade deals. Hopefully that happens before then, but you'll see
(23:05):
a lot of trade deals and a lot of economic
stimulus coming out of those trade deals. And at the
same time, the report on reciprocal tariffs will come through.
So you've got all these things that they hope combine
to provide more of a direction for the economy of
an answer for rising bond vigilanteism, and the idea that
(23:29):
you're going to what you're going to see is an
economic boost out of all this.
Speaker 6 (23:32):
I whan.
Speaker 12 (23:32):
I guess the President didn't stay up through the night,
but we know he gets up for surveillance every morning,
so he's likely listening and watch this vote unfold. But
I want to ask you, Terry, if I could just
about sequencing here, to use the Washington word, And there's
been a lot of criticism here that the White House
pushed for tariffs and trade modifications before they focused wholly
on this bill. Now, with the benefit of hindsight, what
was that a mistake?
Speaker 2 (23:53):
Have we overplayed that?
Speaker 12 (23:54):
Or was this a balancing act that the White House
was able to successfully execute?
Speaker 11 (23:58):
I think a little bit more of the ladder. You know,
I wouldn't call it it's an incomplete success at best,
but certainly they've they have They've avoided the worst of
a lot of the tariffs and put themselves on track
to negotiate a lot of these major bipartisan deals. I'm
not cheerleading when I say so, it's just, you know,
that's the way the markets reacted ultimately.
Speaker 10 (24:19):
But you know, I.
Speaker 11 (24:20):
Urge people to consider that, for example, with China, what
that is is a pause. Everyone wants to say, knowingly
to themselves, to each other and themselves, well, you know
Trump's backed off. Now, it's all good, But well these
are all the same people that didn't think Trump was
going to do what he did in April to begin with.
So so i'd heard some some caution there. But the
(24:44):
way they look at it, and I'm not absolving them
by saying so, I'm just saying the way they look
at it is, you know, he's got between now and
next November, when he doesn't know if he has majorities
or not, to accomplish a lot of things. So it
was very important to get as going as possible, and
that's what they've done.
Speaker 6 (24:59):
Across some Erica.
Speaker 3 (25:00):
A conversation this morning with David Gerra of Bloomberg News
and Terry Haynes of Pangaea Policy will welcome all of you,
particularly across YouTube. Subscribe to Bloomberg Podcast. It's a new
digital distribution. Did a thing with Pimco last night, major
shout out on Serious XCM. Do you listen Paul as
Serious XM.
Speaker 6 (25:19):
One to twenty one? And well, I don't look like
Howard Stern.
Speaker 3 (25:23):
I mean, it's not gonna gonna work, but we're thrilled
to have Terry Haynes with us for this special edition
of Bloomberg Surveillance Green on the screen.
Speaker 6 (25:30):
The market does a little better right now. The vic's
twenty point three two.
Speaker 3 (25:35):
But you know, Paul, as you jump in here with
mister Haynes and mister Gerra, the thirty year bond is
a higher yield.
Speaker 7 (25:41):
Yes it is over the last twenty minutes, rounded up
five point.
Speaker 6 (25:47):
House hunting this weekend is going to be.
Speaker 2 (25:49):
A little choungee. I'm not refinancing the mortgage on the
Jersey Shore compound. Hey, Terry, the Senate gets back from
a well deserved break on June second, then they're going
to look at this bill. What's the Senate going to
do with this bill?
Speaker 4 (26:02):
Terry?
Speaker 2 (26:03):
How does that work? Uh?
Speaker 11 (26:05):
Well, they'll they'll take it up in component parts. There's
no requirement they take anything the House the House gives them,
and they probably won't. H I think what they end
up doing is softening the edges on on a lot
of the harder things that needed to get done in
order to attract Republican conservatives. Give them a fig leaf
give them a fig leaf for for fiscal fiscal continents,
(26:29):
if you will.
Speaker 6 (26:30):
Terry, Terry, I have to interrupt. The Speaker of the
House is speaking. We always take.
Speaker 7 (26:34):
Someone from Louisiana over. Terry Hayes.
Speaker 6 (26:36):
Here he is Speaker Johnson.
Speaker 11 (26:38):
Celebrate a new golden age of America.
Speaker 6 (26:41):
Thank you for being here.
Speaker 8 (26:42):
I yield next to our leaders Slee and as a
speaker said, it truly is morning in America again. You know,
when you think about all of the work that's gone
in to putting this bill together, it's one beautiful bill
for a lot of reasons.
Speaker 6 (27:02):
There are a lot of.
Speaker 8 (27:03):
Really important wins for the American people in this bill.
Speaker 6 (27:08):
And we had eleven committees come together.
Speaker 8 (27:12):
In me in hearings. Some went on over twenty four hours.
Rules Committee went over twenty hours. You had, you know,
of course the Budget Committee Chairman Arrington is the lead
author of the bill.
Speaker 6 (27:26):
All of the people that had been.
Speaker 8 (27:28):
Come together in our conference, and I think a lot
of you know, we don't all think a light. Democrats
made it very clear they didn't want to have any
part in helping get America back on track again.
Speaker 6 (27:40):
But we were never deterred when this bill could have
failed ten times over. We said we were going to.
Speaker 8 (27:48):
Get this done, and failure is not an option, and
we meant it. We knew we were fighting for the
families who had been struggling for way too long under
the failed policies of Joe Biden and all the Democrats
he did out.
Speaker 6 (28:01):
Of control of Washington for too long.
Speaker 8 (28:04):
We watched higher interest rates and higher inflation and lower
wages and a demise of the American dream that we
knew should not be permanent, but was only going to
turn around if we passed a bill to get.
Speaker 3 (28:18):
America bas Steve Callice Scaliso, I should say back to
back to Louisiana here, Paul Sweeney and Tom Keen, Lisa
Matteo Patient with a data check coming up here, and
in course Michael Barrow news including the difficult murders in
Washington overnight. The special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance were focused
on Washington.
Speaker 13 (28:38):
Good Morning ninety ninety one FM. Nathan with a great
job earlier in the morning. Fantastic, I mean briefed in
like way better we are. We have David Gerrow with us,
who's smarter than we are. Also Terry Haynes, Patient to
be with us as well.
Speaker 7 (28:51):
Terry color the.
Speaker 6 (28:52):
Moment here where.
Speaker 3 (28:54):
The House has two leaders from Louisiana versus the alleged Senate, Like,
does the House leadership talk to the Senate? What's the
body language in the white marble at Capitol Hill.
Speaker 2 (29:10):
Oh?
Speaker 11 (29:10):
Sure they talked to They talked to the Senate quite
a lot. I think Johnson was over and the senators
recently is Tuesday briefing senators on on progress and been
begging them to take the House package, which which they
won't do. So but he's got to do that.
Speaker 7 (29:26):
Yeah, they talk, They talk a lot.
Speaker 11 (29:28):
But you know, the the thing with politics that I
think a lot of folks don't, No, it's it's it's just,
you know, it's combat. Even when you have even when
you're jostling around with friendlies, you know, it's uh it's uh,
it's elbows up hockey or or elbows basketball, pick your
sporting metaphor. But uh, you know, you you've got to
(29:51):
fight for every inch and the houses. The House's job
in most legislation is to overreach.
Speaker 6 (29:58):
Uh.
Speaker 11 (29:58):
You know, you've got kind of a purest imperative where
you get you consciously reach you too much knowing you're
going to get rolled back into the middle, and that's
the Senate's job is to roll back into the middle.
So then even in a reconciliation process where only the
Republicans matter, that's exactly what they're to do here, because
they've got a different calculus among their fifty three.
Speaker 3 (30:19):
David Gurrow, quickly here before you go to Terry Haynes,
give us a vignette, David Gura, of your last week
of covering Washington, one little interview or one little moment
where you were like, are you kidding me?
Speaker 12 (30:32):
You know, I went down to Washington and sat down
with the chair of the House Budget Committe. This was
before the votes that took place over the weekend, and
it was clear just in that conversation he's somebody who
exudes a lot of confidences, Jody Rington, who has a
lot of confidence about what he's able to do. But
you saw in that committee in stark relief, just kind
of the spectrum of Republicans in this day and age.
And so he had to deal with Chip roy E
of every conservative member of the House, trying to get
(30:54):
all these folks in line. And I know that we
had Terry Haynes here saying that John Thune's job is
to be the chief cat heurder. There are a lot
of cat heurders on Capitol Hill. In the chair of
the House Budget Committee has been one of them. But
he's gotten this through.
Speaker 5 (31:05):
Terry.
Speaker 12 (31:06):
Let me ask you just about the Medicaid issue in specific,
because I think this is the one that's likely to
be a hot button issue in the Senate as well
as it wasn't in the House.
Speaker 7 (31:14):
Is there room?
Speaker 12 (31:15):
Is there is there a sense that senator senators are
going to find it palable to put in these work
requirements to make the kind of changes that we saw
Republicans in the House agree to make.
Speaker 11 (31:26):
I think they do. I think their requirements get softened
to some extent, though, Uh, you know, the the mistake
again in my Civics one on one role this morning,
the uh, I think sometimes people make the mistake of
looking at these things in silos. In other words, you know,
all the matters is the Medicaid things. Let's talk about that.
Speaker 4 (31:44):
Uh.
Speaker 11 (31:45):
They had they had a bogging to meet in the House,
a specific number of efficiencies that the that the committee
that oversees Medicaid needed to make. They met that in
part through the work requirements and everything else. But I
think the Senate approach is that with a lot of skepticism,
and I do think a lot of those things get softened.
(32:05):
You know, you've got to You've already had noises from
a lot of relatively moderate Republican senators to that effect
that they're concerned about concerned about how those how those
work requirements and other things might roll out. That they
will they'll want to make sure the focus truly is
on what the President calls waste, fraud, and abuse. They'll
(32:26):
generally be okay with that, but if it strays out
into into substance, the Senate's going to be four square
against that, not just because they want to keep the
programs focus intact, but also because they understand that the
Republicans generally in the midterms pay a large political price
if that's not so. Uh, you know, what they need
(32:46):
to be able to do is to go out when
this bill is done and say, look, we didn't touch
medicaid substance. All we're doing is creating efficiencies and how
the program is administered, and they certainly need for that.
They will say, so, you know, and we've fixed that
so you know, I think that's going to be the
Senate's function, and if to the extent that they lose
(33:08):
some savings there, they look for savings elsewhere, which is
one reason, as I say, I think things like Salter
at risk.
Speaker 2 (33:15):
Terry, how big of a win is this for President Trump?
Speaker 11 (33:20):
It's the big win and that's it, you know, and
being able to heard these particularly frascius Cats, get things
done and get them done on time. With the creation
of some momentum around this in the first half of
the year, when by comparison, the twenty seventeen tax bill
took literally all year, it didn't didn't go to final
(33:43):
until December, that's a big accomplishment. That shows a lot
of urgency on the part of Republicans, So that's positive
for them.
Speaker 6 (33:51):
You know.
Speaker 11 (33:52):
Trick is to keep the fire lit under the Senate
and make sure that he doesn't need to use is
the ultimate backstop of the UH of the debt ceiling
x states as something UH. But you know, I can
actually roll that forward and make that happen even faster,
(34:13):
which probably helps him economically as well worldwide.
Speaker 3 (34:16):
Terry Hayes with this Pangaea policy and David Gura of
the big take in Bloomberg News.
Speaker 7 (34:21):
Ger and I and Lisa were in awe of discipline.
Paul Sweeney, he's yet to ask about salt for those.
Speaker 3 (34:29):
For those, it's you know, it's just a New York, Paul,
it's a California in four or five other states.
Speaker 2 (34:34):
Is Matt Miller has been pounding on this with the
window here of our studio.
Speaker 7 (34:38):
You can't shut him up.
Speaker 2 (34:40):
So, Terry, I mean, salt, salt, it's it's a big issue.
It's where are we on this? So, Terry, how does
this salt situation stack up?
Speaker 6 (34:51):
Well?
Speaker 11 (34:51):
I think it's uh, yeah, I think And I told
markets yesterday, I thought that what they had to look
out for here is the you know, not not taking
their their big salts and uh and going away. But
because I think the world in the Senate's going to
be slid light salt or no salt pretent really really yeah,
(35:12):
I think they probably make a nod to it in
the end, but much less. Uh. And the reason simple,
The only reason why salt is even in this bill
is because of politics. They need to get a few
New York, New Jersey, California members on board and uh,
but that really doesn't exist in the Senate today. I'm
not aware of a single senator who you know, who
(35:34):
it's a make or break vote for. And of course
all the all the blue state senators are all Democrats,
so uh, there's no need to to coddle there. So uh,
you know you did? I think you have a haircut
here from from from what's the House bill?
Speaker 3 (35:50):
If folks, it's a clinic with Terry Haynes. I can't
say enough his efforts out on LinkedIn. Just literally it's
worth it to sign up for LinkedIn, just to get
penji up policy and the daily brief from Terry Hayes
that you see out there. Terry, Thank you, generous of
you at this historic moment to be with.
Speaker 1 (36:11):
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay.
Speaker 9 (36:18):
And Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app.
Speaker 1 (36:20):
You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube
and always on the Bloomberg Terminal.
Speaker 2 (36:26):
Mark Douglas is the CEO of a company called Mountain
and the company just went public today. They're going to
start training today. MNTN is a ticker symbol. They raised
one hundred and eighty seven million dollars. They sold eleven
point seven million shares at sixteen bucks, So a solid
start there for Mountain Marks on the I believe in
your Socker chains floor right now, Mark Douglas, CEO Mountain
(36:48):
joins us. Mark, talk to us about the IPO process here.
What was a message you guys were delivering to prospective
shareholders here during your IPO.
Speaker 14 (36:58):
Well, I think the key message was that we had
created a new segment of the television advertising market where
we're bringing small and mid sized companies into the market
for the first time on our platform where they can
advertise on TV the same way they could previously do.
Speaker 2 (37:14):
On search and social.
Speaker 14 (37:16):
And so our customers have responded to that and we
very please, like all the investors we met with on
the road show responded just as well.
Speaker 3 (37:24):
When you go into a meeting, do you take Ryan
Reynolds into the meeting.
Speaker 14 (37:28):
Well, he showed up on the teaching you know, the
first day of a road show you meet with all
the banks and all the people, and he was there.
Was it was pretty fun meeting, so we had a
good time.
Speaker 6 (37:39):
So what's the distinction here? Help Paul and me. We're
on on YouTube it's building every day.
Speaker 3 (37:43):
Mark, We're just overwhelmed by the you know, as Colin
of the Twins says, a discoverability factor.
Speaker 7 (37:50):
How is ed revenue going to fold into YouTube.
Speaker 3 (37:54):
Creators, whether they're hipsters like Lisa Mateo's kids or their
fossils like me.
Speaker 14 (38:01):
Yeah, so YouTube, something like YouTube, it's not competing with
something like stream with streaming television, which is the market
that we're in. It's actually people are just expanding their
entertainment consumption. So more people watch TV a day than
use social media. It's the highest engagement channel of any
entertainment medium. So you see streaming growing obviously, YouTube, social
(38:24):
all continue to grow as people just consume more content
and as a result, you know, companies or small mid
sized businesses can now connect with those people and do
that with Mountain, do that obviously with Google and so forth.
So we're you know, it's it's great for everyone.
Speaker 6 (38:39):
Mark.
Speaker 2 (38:39):
The month of May is a very important part of
the year for global television business. Here we have the
upfronts where the broadcasting cable networks and pretty much everybody
else out there is trying to sell adspace shows. Everybody
what they're going to be broadcasting in the upcoming year
and they ask advertisers to step up and commit dollars
for the upcoming levision decision. How are you episode fronts
(39:02):
this year and how would you characterize the upfronts this year?
And what are advertisers thinking about with maybe some uncertain
economic times.
Speaker 14 (39:10):
Yeah, so I think the advertisers are there for the upfronts.
And the thing that I think the whole industry is
really excited about is live sports on streaming. So you
see ESPN and other networks really focused on live sports
is kind of number one conversation I have with the
leaders at these networks. And so I think the upfronts
will be fine. I think our customers will do great.
(39:32):
They'll they'll won't participate in the upfronts, but they will
participate in the availability of live sports is kind of
the year of live sports.
Speaker 2 (39:39):
So that's what you're going to see.
Speaker 3 (39:40):
Mark Douglas, thank you for the time. Is the chief
executive officer Mountain. The symbol mm TN their initial public
offering today.
Speaker 1 (39:48):
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto
with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live
on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just
say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 6 (40:06):
Lisa Matteo. Here she is with newspapers.
Speaker 15 (40:08):
Okay, this is going to be all about the Wellness Hour.
Speaker 7 (40:11):
Okay, help.
Speaker 15 (40:16):
Captain, I'm all about the wellness And this is the
story from the New York Times about those wearable devices.
You heard it, like the r ring, the Apple watches,
the fit bits. Okay, so these are devices that track
your biometric data, right, you have body temperature, heart rate,
blood pressure, how much rem sleep you get. But a
lot of users say they enjoy it because it keeps
them on top of, you know, all their data. But
(40:37):
others are saying it's starting to make them anxious. They're
getting a little bit compulsive, like they're checking their stats
all the time. They're freaking out, they're trying to make
an appointment for the doctor. The doctor can't see them,
so then their stats good even worse. So it's becoming
this whole phenomenon like, yes, you know, it's great, but
does it also make you a little bit too self conscious?
Speaker 6 (40:55):
Oh of course, did you check?
Speaker 7 (40:58):
I just got the watch on her risk.
Speaker 15 (41:00):
Have to watch, but I just use it to track
like my workouts watch.
Speaker 3 (41:05):
We have two eye watches at home that sit on
the table. We couldn't figure out how to do it.
It's too complex.
Speaker 15 (41:11):
I mean it's pretty good, like the heart, like if
I ever feel my heart kind of pacing, I'll check it.
I can do it, you know here on my watch
and just say.
Speaker 2 (41:17):
What do you do? And then I.
Speaker 3 (41:20):
Exactly, I'm glad that my heart was pacing what she
was wearing me and meal Matt Gala and you know,
thank god I had my apple I watched to say.
Speaker 2 (41:31):
Exactly where you god steps on Tuesday? How about that?
Speaker 6 (41:34):
See?
Speaker 7 (41:34):
And how do you know that?
Speaker 6 (41:35):
Do you need to do ten thousands stations?
Speaker 15 (41:39):
That is a recommended That is a recommended ten thousands?
Speaker 6 (41:42):
Do you do ten thousand steps to day?
Speaker 8 (41:44):
I do?
Speaker 15 (41:45):
I walked to and from the train and subway back home.
Speaker 2 (41:47):
Yeah, I do. And the workout count too.
Speaker 15 (41:51):
Okay, this one's tough.
Speaker 2 (41:53):
Okay.
Speaker 15 (41:53):
So we were talking about the next Pacers game, right, Okay,
a lot of people paid some big bucks to watch.
Speaker 2 (41:58):
And excluse at the garden.
Speaker 15 (42:00):
It's at a record for seat prices. So this is
according to boardroom. They pointed to data from tickpic and
it shows the average price for tickets to Game one
at the Garden record setting one and ninety three dollars,
making it the most expensive NBA Conference Final game ever. Now,
if you look at it just getting in the door, Okay,
the current get in price for Game one is five hundred.
(42:22):
Was five hundred and eighty dollars. That's nearly double the
price cab tag for Game three over in Indianapolis. So
it's just the anticipation, right, We've been talking about this.
People have been waiting for this time, and they're willing
to pay whether they win or not.
Speaker 3 (42:35):
I've been like two games in my life. I'm ignorant,
Paul is the magic of the NBA. There's no boards
and glass between the fans and.
Speaker 10 (42:43):
The ice, and there's no mask the.
Speaker 2 (42:46):
Player times, there's no mass, there's noll and so you
really get to know who these people are and.
Speaker 6 (42:51):
It's almost like a gladiator thing.
Speaker 2 (42:53):
In The NBA does a great great job of developing
and celebrating and highlighting and showcasing their store, whether it's
you know, Michael Jordan or Lebron James or Steph Curry
or whomever. They do a great job doing that, and
it's it's you know, after the NFL, it's the NBA game.
Speaker 15 (43:09):
Truth was, I was looking at StubHub for you for
the next game courtside eleven thousand dollars and then at
the top, yeah, at per ticket at the top, way
at the top, just over seven hundred bucks.
Speaker 5 (43:19):
Tickets still available.
Speaker 7 (43:20):
Okay, okay, one.
Speaker 15 (43:22):
More story slipping quick, Okay, I'll slip it in here.
Speaker 2 (43:24):
Okay.
Speaker 15 (43:24):
So Wall Street Journal says you can still negotiate a
best and final offer even though it's a competitive labor market.
Even if the salary is set. They say there's other
places for wiggle room. So they say, ask for things
like signing bonus, more flexible schedule, bigger title, maybe an
extra week of vacation. Some people are doing like as is,
but with an agreement to revisit this later. But they
(43:47):
say it's not something for everyone. You know, you have
to really be competitive and be in there.
Speaker 8 (43:51):
Yes.
Speaker 1 (43:52):
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,
and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday,
seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com. The
iHeartRadio app tune In, and the Bloomberg Business App. You
can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and
(44:13):
always on the Bloomberg terminal
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