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June 30, 2025 • 42 mins

Bloomberg’s Caroline Hyde and Ed Ludlow discuss President Trump’s claim that he has found a buyer group for TikTok. Plus, Canada withdraws its digital services tax in a move to restart trade talks with the US. And Elon Musk slammed the Senate spending bill for removing electric vehicle tax credits.

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Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. Bloomberg Tech is a
live from Coast to Coast with Caroline Hyde in New
York and Vla Lowe in San Francisco.

Speaker 2 (00:22):
This is Bloomberg Tech coming up. President Trump says he
has identified a buyer for the US operations of TikTok.

Speaker 3 (00:30):
Plus Canada withdraws its digital services tax that could have
cost Big Tech billions in a.

Speaker 4 (00:36):
Move to restart trade talks for the.

Speaker 2 (00:37):
US and Apple's Hollywood Bett takes the lead with f
one movie taking in fifty five point six million dollars
in the US and Canadian box office.

Speaker 3 (00:48):
There's a lot going on ed that also might be
involving Oracle in the future. President Trump says that they
have a buyer for TikTok's US operations, but he stopped
short of naming the bidder, saying on other networks that
the transaction would need China approval. For more bluebags, Mike
Shepherd joins us for more and there is an articulation
that we've got a buyer. But the big if is

(01:10):
what China does with this information.

Speaker 5 (01:12):
Well, that's right, Caro, China has a huge stake in this,
and they really will have the final say, given that
byte Dance, the parent of TikTok is based in Beijing
and also happens to oversee some of what the Chinese
government would consider sensitive technology, the kind that would need
government approval to engineer any kind of final sale, even

(01:34):
if the company were to retain control over the algorithm.
Our reporting back in April indicated that the deal that
had been taking shape at the White House, involving Byte Dance,
TikTok Us officials, and a number of prospective buyers in
this consortium, it would have left the algorithm in China's hands.
But even with that, with trade tension surging between Washington

(01:57):
and Beijing, it became two difficult to get this deal
further along to get Beijing's approval.

Speaker 2 (02:03):
At the time, Mike, we're currently in this kind of
extension period, the latest extension to get a deal done.
So that's where it stands. But what's our sense of
who that this mysterious victorious bidda might be.

Speaker 5 (02:18):
Well, it really is appearing to be based on some
reporting this morning, that we're getting in and it all
still taking shape. But our sense is that it is
essentially the same consortium that had been working on that
we had reported on back in April. And this includes
Oracle Corp, which already does quite a bit of back
end business for TikTok here in the US through Project Texas.

(02:41):
And then it would also include venture capital firm and
recent Horowitz and Blackstone and some other investors in byte Dance,
the US based investors in byte Dance perhaps, and the
idea would be to dilute Byteedance's steak in the US
operations of TikTok down below a threshold that is specified
in the twenty twenty four law that calls for it

(03:03):
to be divested from Chinese ownership and also include the
algorithm in the sale. And that algorithm ed is going
to be what could emerge as a sticking point at
least here in Washington if it is not transferred from
Chinese control. That could be grounds for at least some
objections at least in Congress. It's unclear though, whether those
will materialize into anything significant enough to either halt the

(03:26):
deal or force a shutdown as the law would specify.
As you said, we do have more time to think
about this. The President just signed an extension from June nineteenth,
and that'll carry US into September. The other thing that
Wall specified, though, Ed, is you'll recall there was only
one extension allowed by the President and he's already on
number three, so it's unclear how much further he'll be

(03:48):
able to take.

Speaker 2 (03:49):
This head in both Michael Sheppard out of Washington, d C.
Thank you very much. Let's talk a little bit more
broadly about tech markets. Angelou Coull Covers Edward Join Senior
Investment Strategies joins us now, saying that Caroline was talking
about at the top of the show, believe it or not,
it's the last day of the second quarter. We already
arrived to the second half of what has been an

(04:09):
intense year in the technology sector. The Nasdaq one hundred
is like modestly higher right now in the session, but
we continue to push consecutive record highs. What is the
single catalyst for tech right now?

Speaker 6 (04:21):
Angelo, Yeah, as you said, certainly a lot has happened
in the first half of the year, and maybe the
fact that we are hitting all time highs, we see
that as a validation of the positive momentum, not an
indication or a signal of an imminet correction. Certainly, the
decline the the risking in geopolitical trade tensions and the

(04:43):
other tensions has helped. But at the same time, really
what is undisputed is the strength in corporate profits, especially
within tech. We are hitting all time highs, but it
is the largest companies that are driving this. About six
percent of the S and P five hundred has been
hitting new heisers of the last Friday, so it hasn't
yet been broad but at the same time that shouldn't

(05:06):
really dilute the methods that we remain. In a bull
market summer center. This is ahead, but corporate profits is
what is driving this action.

Speaker 3 (05:17):
Corporate profits that sees growth actually start to accelerate out
of the US angelo going forward the second half, is
it going to be US exceptionalism or if we look
at what Bloomberg Intelligence have just been writing great piece
of analysis coming out of Gina and her team today
saying the US is no longer settling the pace for
global tech earnings.

Speaker 4 (05:38):
In fact that's going to Asia and Europe. What do
you make of it?

Speaker 6 (05:42):
What is happening is the growth gap and the growth
advantage that the US has had is narrowing, especially as
we think about this year. Europe is accelerating from stagnation,
while we are deccelerating from a very strong starting point.
But at the same time, looking at the major in
this is for international un developed large cup equities. It's

(06:03):
been an erring of the gap invaluations, which still remains
in large rather than an earnings story. So if we
see some stabilization in the US dollar in the second half,
based on the earnings still outperformance from US equities, we
would expect potentially US tech and US assets more broadly

(06:24):
to come back into favor.

Speaker 3 (06:27):
Okay, any area in particular, we've been all about hardware
for the last couple of years.

Speaker 4 (06:32):
Software got its moment in the sun.

Speaker 3 (06:33):
But I'm interested is the eraror areas in particular that
you like within the tech ecosystem of the US.

Speaker 6 (06:40):
I think the equal weighted index is also one way
to go and participate in that likely broadening that is happening. Yes,
and VIDA and semiconductors remain key at the center of
the exciting secular tail winds that are ahead. But we
are seeing last week the equal weighted technology S and

(07:01):
B make new highs relative to the market, and that
is an encouraging development. So remain broadly diversified software still
likely favored, but that is the case for many other sectors,
and we can talk about that as well well.

Speaker 2 (07:16):
And I kind of want to go back to the
top news stories of the day, which largely center around trade,
Canada and digital tax. We have heard and we will
hear again very shortly from US Treasury Secretary Scott Besson.
But the reason I bring that up is that in
summary of the prior quarter, it was really trade that
was driving us. I asked this difficult question to every

(07:37):
markets participant that comes on the show, what happens next,
particularly in tech.

Speaker 6 (07:44):
Yeah, trade that in the near term is still going
to be front and center. We have the deadline that
is coming up to line ninth, but that date it
has been dereased a little bit. The administration has indicated
that this could be extended. There's any potential agreements with
major trading partners underway, and this can be unveiled over

(08:05):
the coming days. But since the start of the year,
we are seeing this expected and gradual pyvot towards more
market friendly policies, tax cuts, regulations. So there could be
some near term volatility and some potentially less friendly economic
data that reflect a mindly stagflationary impact, but markets are

(08:29):
going to be able to look through that as they
Foction twenty twenty six.

Speaker 2 (08:34):
And going back to the micro to finish, I talked
about those two deals at the top, Palenteer partnering with
Accentia sales channel Oracle thirty billion dollars per year cloud client.
Outside of those just being news stories that drive those
single names higher, how much do you track those data
sets for signals of how enduring an AI investment cycle

(08:55):
is or how real any of this is in the
AI context.

Speaker 6 (09:00):
These are important and no doubt the cycle of Israel.
We see that in broader adoption and we see that
in the results from the companies that are centered in
this space. As we think about moving further away from
the trade headwinds, that's going to be an ext major
step some confidence for more deals to happen, and I

(09:21):
think that is something that can be supportive of the
market and the tech space in gener.

Speaker 3 (09:28):
For now, still very much things that we can tend with.
On the day, Angelo Kukafas, we thank you so much
of Edward Jones. Coming up those headwinds, we discuss Canada
actually though withdrawing its digital services tax in order to
restart US trade talks.

Speaker 4 (09:42):
More on that next peacibly bad tech.

Speaker 2 (09:53):
Republican Party leaders are rushing to overcome infighting in an
effort to pass President Trump's Big, Beautiful bill, as Democrats
launch an initiative to exploit those divisions more bloombos. Katie
Lines joins us. Now, I don't think in my career,
at least, I'm sure in yours you have tracked as
closely the passage of the bill, the politics of it,
and the content of it. What's the latest.

Speaker 7 (10:16):
Well, obviously this is a massive package, and it's been
very complicated. The so called vote Rama Bean in the
Senate this morning is expected to go all day into tonight,
perhaps even into the early hours of tomorrow, as they
vote on an unlimited number of amendments to this bill,
including the likes of the one put forward by Senator
Ron Johnson, who would like to see a phasing out
of the expansion population of Medicaid under the Affordable Care

(10:36):
Act of Susan Collins's amendment, but that would give more
funding to rural hospitals in exchange for raising the tax
rate on the country's highest earners, and of course Democrats
are going to put hold a boatload of amendments to
try to get Republicans on the record with things that
may be politically unpopular, but all of it is aimed
at trying to get the requisite votes needed to pass,
knowing that John fu and the Senate Majority leader can
only lose three and there's still about eight Republican holdouts

(10:59):
who have not committed to voting yes on this legislation,
including Tom Tillis, who said yesterday in a surprise announcement,
not only would he not be voting for this package,
but he's actually not seeking reelection in twenty twenty six.
So the math is difficult, and math is actually one
of the first things they tackled this morning is they
voted to adopt the so called current policy baseline, which
essentially fudges the accounting to say that the tax cuts

(11:21):
don't cost four and a half trillion dollars in tax cuts,
about three point eight of them three point eight trillion
dollars are taken out as current policy because it's extending
the twenty seventeen tax cuts. It's aimed at lowering the
price tag, at least on paper, but that still may
not be enough to appease fiscal conservatives, especially in the House,
which of course has to revote on this package, assuming

(11:41):
that it can get through the Senate. So this voter
rama is really just step one in a number of
remaining hurdles.

Speaker 3 (11:47):
Well, Katie, there were some maths that was very much
an obsession of big tag that no longer has to
be in anxiety. I'm talking about digital services taxes that
were coming into full today phone Canada on American giants
and now no more tolk.

Speaker 4 (12:02):
Us to it.

Speaker 7 (12:04):
Yeah. President Trump on Friday threatened Canada essentially saying that
within a week they would be getting a new tariff
rate and trade negotiations were going to end entirely over
this digital services tax, which could cost American companies like
Meta or Alphabet billions of dollars. Those first payments were
expected to be due today, and tell Canada basically acquiesced
to Trump's demands, deciding to rescind that digital services tax

(12:25):
in the name of restarting trade negotiations, and they're now
looking at trying to get a trade deal done by
July twenty first. That of course is a little bit
later than the deadline. Other countries are working with July ninth.
Of course, that wider deadline that's coming up very quickly,
and the digital services taxes for trading partners like the
European Union for example, are still likely seen as sticking points.
So while it's still been resolved between the US and

(12:46):
Canada at least for now, that's something we can expect
to come up in trade negotiations as they move forward
in the coming days.

Speaker 3 (12:52):
Elsewhere bloom megs Kayleie lyines, thank you so much. In
Washington and look US Treasury sectories, Scott Bessen joined Blue
Meg Shanon just this morning to give some insight into
current trade talks, saying we should expect a flurry of
deals soon.

Speaker 4 (13:06):
Take a listen.

Speaker 8 (13:06):
So it's going to be a flurry going into the
final week as the pressure increases.

Speaker 9 (13:11):
Well, can you tell us about what's coming out of
those deals? Are they inked deals or are they negotiations
for future deals?

Speaker 8 (13:19):
Well, what I can tell you is that the staff level,
whether it's a Treasury at USTR, at commerce, people who've
been around for twenty years are in amazement and they're
saying these countries are coming with offers that they can't believe.
So in terms of bringing down tariffs, non tariff trade barriers.

(13:42):
We're leaving a side currency, the financing of the labor
and capital in an advantageous way. All these countries are
pulling back.

Speaker 9 (13:56):
So you've said that trade negotiations could be wrapped up
by how should investors and nations impact It'd be thinking
about that July ninth deadline and could that be pushed
back to avoid going back to those April second tariff rates.

Speaker 8 (14:12):
Well, that's going to be able to President Trump. And
I'm not going to tell any country. We have countries
that are negotiating in good faith, but they should be
aware that if we can't get across the line because
they are being with calcitrant, then we could spring back
to the April second levels. I hope that won't have

(14:32):
to happen.

Speaker 2 (14:34):
That was US Treasury Secretary Scott Beston. Let's stay on
the impact of tariffs and bring in Rachel Hoff, policy
director at the Ronald Reagan Institute, who joins us on
set here in San Francisco Trade in Tariffs. That the
policy platform that the administration has explained to us in
this program through Michael Kratzios is promote and protect in
the context of the technology sector. But as we learn

(14:56):
about the content of the deals, we're increasingly talking about
which camp you're in impact how you feel about it.
If you're a consumer, you feel one way about tariffs.
If you're a technology company you may feel differently. What
does your research tell you about where we will land
in the sort of public conscience of how impactful these
trade deals have been.

Speaker 4 (15:16):
Well, we have.

Speaker 10 (15:16):
Research at the Reagan Institute on kind of both of
those camps.

Speaker 4 (15:19):
We have, particularly in the national.

Speaker 10 (15:22):
Security domain, a tech sector focused project that we have
our National Security Innovation based program. And then in terms
of consumers and more broadly the American people, we're just
out last week with a new survey, a public opinion
poll asking the American people what they think about a
range of issues, including trade, in tariffs, and on tariffs
in particular, Americans are supportive of tariffs on China, but

(15:47):
not at the expense of higher prices. That that flips
when you put it up against rising consumer prices.

Speaker 3 (15:54):
What's so interesting in your data and research, Rachel, is
the anxiety that everyone has around technology theft with China.

Speaker 4 (16:02):
That's the number one concern, right.

Speaker 10 (16:05):
That's right, Americans are concerned about a number of issues
with regard to China, from their military build up to
their economic practices to human rights abuses. But your right, Caroline,
Top on the list of Americans concerns about China is
technology theft. Shortly behind that is Chinese advancements in AI
and the prospect that they may actually advance more quickly

(16:28):
than the US in terms of our artificial intelligence research
and leadership. So the technology concerns that I know are
of interest to your audience are really top on the
mind of the American people as well when it comes
to Beijing.

Speaker 2 (16:39):
At the global stage. There are many factors and considerations
for American citizens. What Caroline just says really interesting tech theft,
but absolutely at the top based on what I'm reading,
is actually Iran and what's happening in the nuclear context.
That's right.

Speaker 10 (16:56):
When we ask about geopolitical issues more broadly, from China
to the war between Russia and Ukraine to tariffs, one
geopolitical issue stands out above all others that the American
people think matters to US security and prosperity, and that's
preventing around from getting a nuclear weapon. Our poll was
before the recent strikes, but we know that preventing around

(17:17):
from nuclear from getting a nuclear weapon is of concern
to eighty four percent of Americans. You don't get to
eighty four percent without being there on a bipartisan basis.
A majority of Democrats and a majority of Republicans want
to prevent ran from getting a nuclear weapon.

Speaker 3 (17:33):
What seems to have been very holistically fold of on
this show is how we therefore need to innovate when
it comes to defense tech. Rachel, with this empowered, with
the data that you bring and the research, what does
colport in America go and do about it?

Speaker 10 (17:49):
You know, I think that's ultimately ultimately the question. And
with tariffs, not just you know, not just looking at China,
but you know, not all tariffs are created equal. Right
when we look at tariffs on China, this broader conversation
about strate strategic decoupling of our economies on a national
security basis, that's different than tariffs on our allies and

(18:09):
our friends. The American people understand that, and certainly corporate America,
certainly the US tech sector understands that, and particularly with
regard to the supply chain challenges that they face if
we have sustained and long term tariffs against our allies
and friends. That's going to hurt the American tech sector,
and it's going to hurt our ability to modernize our
military and develop the capabilities we need to meet the

(18:32):
national security threats of tomorrow.

Speaker 3 (18:35):
Well, I'm sure that this sort of data is going
to be very useful for policy making. You are the
policy director at the Ronald Reagan Institute. We appreciate the
time and the insights. Rachel Hope, thanks for joining.

Speaker 5 (18:45):
Now.

Speaker 3 (18:45):
Coming up, let's talk more about geopolitics Israel in Iran's
recent will revealed a key risk for global shipping. Well
on that next. In today's Big Take, This is Tech.

(19:09):
The Iran Israel war highlighted critical flaws among the world's
shipping giants, with many of the satellite navigation systems among
ships and tankers being vulnerable to mass jamming as.

Speaker 4 (19:20):
They traversed vital waterways.

Speaker 3 (19:21):
Bloomberg's Jack Westles joins us now for more on today's
Big Take.

Speaker 4 (19:25):
Jack set the scene.

Speaker 3 (19:26):
How integral is this sort of technology to shipping writ large.

Speaker 11 (19:32):
So shits do use satellite navigation systems to navigate nowadays.
One of the most common ones is GPS. There's also
Russian ones, it's called glonas and a couple of other
ones as well. So it's really integral to how the
shipping industry operates. And don't forget that the shipping industry
is responsible for transporting more than eighty percent of world trade.

Speaker 2 (19:54):
Jack, I spent all morning reading and learning about jamming
and spoofing. Explain the basic definitions and the data analysis
you did on how that's happening and playing out in
that region.

Speaker 11 (20:08):
Yeah, that's a great question because they're not quite the
same thing. So jamming is essentially where so these are
satellite navigation systems, so the ships are receiving signals. So
jamming is when these signals are essentially overwhelmed, like imagine
someone just shouting really loudly over the signal. Whereas, and
you know, the ship system essentially gets confused. Whereas spoofing

(20:29):
is when a fake signal is specifically fed to the ship,
and that can be more insidious. You could really get
a ship and slowly lure it off its path by
feeding it a fake signal and potentially leading it into trouble.

Speaker 3 (20:44):
And where is the sort of trouble arising tend to
be in the straight of wall moves is it more
broad than that.

Speaker 11 (20:51):
Yeah, so we looked at a few hot spots. So yes,
there's been lots in the Persian Gulf and the straight
up wall Moos. Other hot spots include the Red Sea,
the Black See, the Baltic Sea. Especially, there's a hotspot
near Primorsk, which is a big oil terminal for Russia.
So you notice that these are regions of geopolitical tension.
You know, you've obviously got recent attacks by who Thi's

(21:13):
in the Red Sea. You've obviously had Iran Israel in
the Persian Gulf, and Russia's oil exports always subject to
lots of sanctions. And you've obviously got the Russia Ukraine
War as well.

Speaker 2 (21:26):
Bloombos Jack whistles with today's big take, Thank you very much.
Now coming up, we'll dig into how the Supreme Court's
ruling on birthright citizenship and other Trump immigration policies are
impacting a key component of the tech workforce, that is
the H one B visa holders. Really critical conversation for
our audience coming up here next. This is Bloomberg Tech.

(21:52):
Welcome back to Bloomberg Tech. Welcome to the final day
of the second quarter, the final day of the first
half of twenty twenty five, and the Nasdaq one hundred,
it's that index always go to because as a high
concentration of tech is once again pushing fresh record highs.
Look at the chart at April that was post deep
seek when there was a lot of volatility in markets,
and we've really rebounded since then again pushing across many

(22:15):
days consecutive record highs. Right now, as I read across
the Bloomberg newsroom, it is trade and trade headlines that
are driving markets for tech. But as we talked about
earlier in the show, you look at names like Palenteer
and Oracle, there are lots of deals, particularly in the
AI context. They're giving us evidence that this spending on
AI is playing into the story as well. Caro, what

(22:35):
a chart it is to show to end the first
half of twenty twenty five.

Speaker 3 (22:40):
What a ride, What a ride it has been from
an asset perspective and.

Speaker 4 (22:44):
From political perspective.

Speaker 3 (22:45):
Let's just talk about how your musk has slammed the
US Senates version of the President Trump's tax bill ed. Look,
the TESLA CEO is warning that cuts to electric vehicle
and other clean energy credits would be quote incredibly destructive
to the country. He said the bill would actually destroy
million of US jobs while subsidizing what he called industries
of the past. That's bring in Bloomberg's Max Chafkin, who

(23:06):
I'm sure was glued to some of these posts on Saturday.
And is it making any dent Do you think from
the political standpoint that.

Speaker 4 (23:13):
He wants it to?

Speaker 12 (23:14):
I mean, it doesn't seem to be.

Speaker 13 (23:15):
He's been railing about this, you know, from around the
time when he and you know, Donald Trump had their spat,
you know, their public spat, which which ended with social
media insults, and seems to still be going on to
some extent. That's been going on for weeks, and it
hasn't seemed to slow this bill down. In fact, you know,
we've seen versions of the bill where instead of sun

(23:36):
setting these consumer tax credits which make it seventy five
hundred dollars cheaper for consumers to buy an electric vehicle,
sun setting those ninety days from passage rather than one
hundred and eighty days, creating a situation where Tesla could
be impacted.

Speaker 12 (23:51):
As early as the end of this year.

Speaker 13 (23:54):
This would be a real challenge for a company that
has already struggled with demand, especially amid all the controversy
caused by Elon musk support of Donald Trump.

Speaker 2 (24:04):
Max you pointed out on X something that we've talked
about often on the show, which is the President was
quite consistent on his approach to these kinds of incentives,
But so was Elon Musk. You know, he kind of
regularly said we'll do away with them because he felt
that they, at least as I understand it, he felt
it gave other legacy alto makes a leg up that

(24:25):
Tesla just didn't need it need and now he's upset.
Just just give us that backstory.

Speaker 13 (24:30):
Yeah, I mean, historically Musk's position has been we don't
need the subsidies, and I think one of the reasons
for that is that historically the subsidies were going to sunset.

Speaker 12 (24:40):
You know, this is before Joe Biden.

Speaker 13 (24:41):
We're supposed to sunset once an automaker hit a specific
number that got take gotten rid of. But must continue
to say he would rather have a level playing field,
which sort of made sense because Tesla was the most
profitable of the company selling electric vehicles, that is, its
electric vehicles were most profitable. Now, the thing is, over
the last year Tesla's financial position has changed to some extent. Right,

(25:04):
We've been talking about these sales challenges, sales falling in China,
in Europe and so on.

Speaker 12 (25:08):
Meanwhile, you have other.

Speaker 13 (25:10):
Electric vehicle makers becoming more competitive. That's creating pressure on
the company's finances. And I think that's one thing that
has changed besides the obvious, you know, blow up between
Elon Musk and Donald Trump.

Speaker 4 (25:24):
But to be fair to you, a Muskit, perhaps one.

Speaker 3 (25:26):
Thing that also hasn't changed on his part is that
he's railed against the deficit and debt. So how much
do we know that this is the nuance that he's
really angry about, or more broadly, his view that we
need to rain in spending in America.

Speaker 13 (25:40):
Listen, I mean he's railing about the debt as well.
While while he's tweeting about you know, these the US
you know, hurting the clean energy industry or as he
sees it, he's also saying that this bill is going
to increase the debt and the deficit. Of course, Musk
spent months trying to work on that with DOJE, and
in certain ways I guess this bill he sees it

(26:00):
as an affront to those efforts. You know, I think
the EV policy and the clean energy policies are a
big deal here, whether or not Musk specifically points to
them or not, because they will affect the bottom line
of the company that.

Speaker 12 (26:13):
You know is most important to his portfolio.

Speaker 2 (26:17):
Glommost Max Chafkin, a veel on ink team, Thank you
very much. Tech companies are top employers of high skilled
immigrants in the United States on H one B visas,
but a recent ruling by the Supreme Court is raising
questions about the legal status of children born to those
visa holders. Here to talk about the impact on the
tech sector, Hibbert Amber. She's a partner with ericson Immigration Group,

(26:41):
and I think starting with the basics here is important.
What happened with the Supreme Court ruling and what are
the mechanics of what it means for H one B
visas that we've just outlined.

Speaker 14 (26:53):
So the Supreme Court ruled that federalist judges cannot issue
nationwide injunctions, and so this decision basically affects how legal
challenges to President Trump's Birthright Citizenship Executive Order can actually proceed,
and it's scheduled to go back into effect July twenty seven.
So what this means is that if an H one

(27:14):
B visa holder wants to insulate their baby from the
effects of the executive order, they need to sue individually,
or join a class action lawsuit, or live in a
state that sues or successfully obtains an injunction. So essentially,
the ruling opens the door to piecemeal enforcement of immigration policies,
which will potentially lead to differing legal standards in different

(27:36):
parts of the country. But coming back to your question
about how it impacts tech companies, what this means is
that there's a possibility that the babies of the employees
of these tech companies will be treated differently depending on
where the employee sues or where the employee lives, and
that is going to create a whole new category of
employee questions and policy considerations for the company that it

(27:58):
has not had to grapple with in the past.

Speaker 2 (28:00):
We heard from US Attorney General Pambondi about this in
Friday Show.

Speaker 12 (28:05):
Just listen to what she had to say.

Speaker 15 (28:07):
So birthright citizenship will be decided in October in the
next session. However, it indirectly impacts us because, as you
correctly pointed out, if there's a birthright citizenship case in Oregon,
it will only affect the plaintiff in Oregon, not the
entire country. So yes, it's indirectly, but that's pending litigation
and we're waiting on that in the next term. We're

(28:28):
very confident in the Supreme Court, but again it's pending
litigation and that will directly be determined in October. But
it indirectly impacts every case in this country, and we're
thrilled with their decision today.

Speaker 2 (28:42):
Hibber, would you kindly in term for it and explain
that the pending action in October that the Attorney General
Bondie was talking about.

Speaker 14 (28:52):
So my understanding about what's happening in October is that
there's going to be a decision in terms of like
the merits of the Birthright Citizenship exist Excutive Order itself.
So if you recall what happened on Friday, was the
Supreme Court only ruled as it pertains to the judge's
ability to issue a nationwide injunction. There has not been

(29:13):
any sort of a decision on the constitutionality of the
Birthright Citizenship Executive Order itself. So therein lies I think
the issue because we're facing the next several months of
different states having different standards and babies born in those
states being treated differently. That is where the logistical, administrative,
and possibly even bureaucratic challenges will arise, both for the

(29:36):
high skilled H one B visa holders or high skilled
immigrants in the country as well as the companies that
employ them.

Speaker 3 (29:42):
Let's look at those companies again. Hib We've got a
beautiful chart to shows how integral H one B visas,
for example, are for certain US tech giants Amazon. This emphasis,
of course, we will recognize, is dependent on H one
B as well cognizant Google. This sort of perception of
instability and immigration, what does it mean for US employees
do you think?

Speaker 14 (30:03):
I think it's important to note that the tech companies
in the United States do rely on high skilled immigrants
from other countries, and part of the reason for their
success and their ability to remain competitive on a global
stage has been their ability to hire the best and
the brightest. So if there are high skilled immigrants out
there who have even the slightest perception of instability in

(30:26):
the US immigration system, there's a chance that that might
factor into their decision to accept an offer from a
US company or accept an offer from a company in
another country. So what the companies and folks in the
United States really have to I think grapple with is
whether they want those skills and that innovation to go
elsewhere as opposed to the benefit of the US companies.

Speaker 3 (30:48):
Hibo, what are you advising in the era now? You
must be filled in countless cools. And if there is
an employee who's trying to learn someone who might eventually
already be pregnant or thinking about it, going to have
to sue on an individual basis?

Speaker 4 (31:01):
Do you think so?

Speaker 14 (31:03):
Individuals as it stands right now until something changes, unlessen
until something changes. If an individual wants to insulate their
future baby from being impacted by the Birthright Citizenship Executive Order,
either they have to sue individually, or they have to
join a class action, or they have to be in
a state that sued on the merits of birthright citizenship,

(31:24):
so that the individuals from that state are somehow insulated
from the applicability of the executive order. So that is
where I find some challenges to tech companies that actually
employ a lot of these vise holders, because what I
think is going to happen is companies are going to
start to get questions that they've never really had to
answer before. For example, what if the employee is scheduled

(31:44):
to relocate to a different state but doesn't feel comfortable
relocating to that state because they're concerned about whether or
not their child will be considered a US citizen upon birth.
Is the company now going to change something about the relocation.
Are they going to extend some sort of reasonable comma.
Are they going to stay away from the topic altogether?
These are now the policy company policy considerations that I

(32:06):
think a lot of tech companies are going to have
to decide.

Speaker 4 (32:10):
HI about ANVA.

Speaker 3 (32:11):
Great to have you on Thank you partner with ericson
Immigration group. Meanwhile, coming up, E Marketer principal analyst Youori
Wormser joining us to discuss the firm's new forecast for
the use of generative AI guests who are the fastest adopters.

Speaker 4 (32:25):
This is Broomberg tech. When it comes to using the latest.

Speaker 3 (32:42):
Technology, it's no surprise that younger generations do tend to
adopt it faster than older ones. That seems to be
the case in generative AI too. The latest forecast on
gen AI use from e Marketer, well, it shows that
those from gen Z are swiftly becoming the heaviest users.
You're as Prince Bill analystic eMarketer. It joins us now.
But what's notable as millennials had have been the line's

(33:05):
share of who had adopted it fast across work and play.

Speaker 4 (33:09):
But gen Z are ramping up.

Speaker 12 (33:12):
That's right.

Speaker 16 (33:12):
I mean right now, as of the end of twenty
twenty five one or twenty twenty five numbers are four.
We're expecting about the same number of gen Z and
millennials to be using generative AI tools. So a big
ramp up from gen Z and in fact starting to
be a ramp up from gen ALF two.

Speaker 2 (33:32):
You can think about this in the context of the population,
or you can think about it in the context of
Internet users. I think that data set is particularly fascinating
because on your forecast it becomes the large body of
people that are online.

Speaker 16 (33:48):
Yeah, I mean, that's true. So by the end of
our forecast in twenty twenty nine, majority of people are
going to be using generative AI tools. And when you
specifically look at the younger generations, MILLENNIALSZ and gen AFA,
gen Z's particularly will have over three quarters of that
Internet population using generative AI tools, So just a huge

(34:12):
ramp up to the point where three out of four
younger users are going to be using these tools.

Speaker 2 (34:19):
What I find also interesting about your research is how
granular it is. And so the reality right now is
you have some tools that dominate the market Chat GPT, Gemini,
Copilot Claude. I don't see grocking here necessarily, but is
this a case that chat GPT is kind of now
the dominant force.

Speaker 16 (34:41):
It is the dominant force. About three quarters of generative
AI users right now use chat ChiPT, less than half
used Gemini. What we're seeing right now, though, is that
even as chat ChiPT increases its absolute number of users
and to share of Internet users, a share of generative

(35:03):
AI users is actually going down. And it's not as
signed that it's losing its attraction to the general population.
It just shows that there's a lot more competition than
has been the case, particularly coming from Gemini, Google's Gemini,
and to a lesser extent, some of the work programs
with Microsoft Copilot.

Speaker 3 (35:24):
Yeah, you're go even more granular for us because many
are using generative AI. Perhaps without asking to AI overviews
has brought it into many people who would not deem
themselves an early adopter's life, but they use Google and
thus the four they're now using generative AI. How much
is it just going to seep into our every day
and you don't actually have to be setting out there
downlading an individual app, whether that's the latest Meta AI

(35:47):
or indeed whether it's chatchbt.

Speaker 16 (35:49):
It's a great point because our numbers are just people
who consciously use these generative AI tools. So if you're
using Google Search as almost all of us are, and
are getting an AII overview, which almost all of us are,
we're not even counting those numbers. These are people who
are actively seeking out chat, GPT or Gemini or working
with these tools of work and Microsoft AI. But you're

(36:10):
absolutely right, it's absolutely pervasive in the background in things
like shopping, chat, chatbots, AI overviews, customer service. So almost
everyone at this point is touching generative AI at some point.

Speaker 3 (36:27):
And then what is the use case that you see
is just winning out no matter what is gen z
coming to this because of the research, because of ultimately
how they study and work, or is it more in
their play? Are we using generative AI more because we
want to learn things about our world and how we
interact with it.

Speaker 16 (36:43):
It's interesting because as a combination of all of those,
the lead use cases search, which is around sixty four
percent of our users, it's going to ramp up to
about seventy five percent of generative AI users using search,
which is almost lockstep in the number of users that
are using it for work on things like coding or

(37:04):
productivity tools, also going from sixty four to seventy three
or seventy four percent. When you're looking at some more
not even niche cases, but things like using it for
text generation and image generation. You're seeing twenty thirty forty
percent of JGPT users using that, so significant portions using

(37:27):
those those productivity tools as well. One more is personal recommendations,
which we're seeing at around forty percent, so people that's
more like shopping type of tools.

Speaker 2 (37:37):
You're other desk lead for advertising, media and tech Emrketer.
So I hope you're able to answer this. I've been
thinking a lot about how with GROCK and with Meta AI,
you have two generative AI technologies that are closely aligned
to social media platforms. There's been reporting, of course that

(37:57):
open AIS looked at the formul lation or acquisition of
a social media platform. Do you have any sense of
how important that is for fresh data, the user based
commonality and things like that. How analogous a generative AI
tool with a social media platform is.

Speaker 16 (38:13):
It's a fantastic question and it's a big advantage. So
meta AI x X with Grog, they do have that
that there's that conversational data that comes from people using
the platform that's incredibly useful for now like training the models, uh,
just in terms of language, but also training in terms
of trends. Google has that to an extent as well

(38:36):
with a search tool. But that data that comes from
social media is incredibly important and will give them that
that material, that data that will take to really improve
their services.

Speaker 2 (38:52):
Uri Wems of Principle analysts that E Marketer just appreciate
the answer to that final question and great conversation around.
Thank you. Now, coming up, Apple's Hollywood breakthrough, how the
tech giants lead at the box office with F one
could be impacting its streaming strategy. This is Bloomberg Tech.

(39:15):
Rowing to the top of the box office charts was
Apple's F one film, the movie about Formula one car
racing starring Brad Pitt, brought fifty five point six million
dollars into US and Canadian theaters and one hundred and
forty four million dollars worldwide. The movie's scene as a
test of Apple's strategy to release its pictures in theaters
before putting them on its Apple TV Plus streaming service, Caroline.

Speaker 3 (39:39):
Let's talk more Apple then, because it's smart watch and
wearables business, there's lost a bit of steam. Bloembog's Mark
German writes in his latest power on that Apple should
seriously consider developing a smart ring to give its fitness
tracking wearables push new momentum and widen its market.

Speaker 4 (39:55):
Let's discuss how Mark joins us for more.

Speaker 3 (39:57):
And it's kind of interesting Aura has stored in this
march in terms of rings and wearables in that department.
Why is Apple perhaps not got with that tactic thus far?

Speaker 17 (40:07):
Well, they're all in on the Apple Watch. Don't forget
the Apple Watch. You have that big color display, you
have the full ecosystem of accessories, you have an Apple marketplace.

Speaker 11 (40:16):
Right.

Speaker 17 (40:16):
It's a revenue driver through and through for Apple, and
it fits very nicely into the ecosystem. A ring would
be a bit different. You're not gonna have a screen,
You're not gonna have applications. You're likely not gonna have
an accessories or app's ecosystem, right. It will be cheaper,
probably lower margin. So there are some fears from that
standpoint potentially for Apple, but I do think it would

(40:36):
freshen up the wearables market for them. I think it
could make them even more competitive to help them grow
market share. It would be a nice alternative to the
Apple Watch for people who don't want something sort of
bulky depending on the model you get on their wrists.
It would be a big legged up for sleep tracking,
something a bit more comfortable. You could wear it with
any outfit, right the Apple Watch, Sometimes you don't want
to wear it, maybe with a suit or a tuxedo.

(40:57):
So I think it would be a nice alternative for
the wall, and it should be Apple selling it versus someone.

Speaker 2 (41:02):
Else mark I'm an Apple Watch where other wearables are available.
Obviously Away from the form factor though, like inside this thing,
there is underlying technology that is analogous to a ring.
What is Apple good at that they could transfer into
that new form factor.

Speaker 17 (41:21):
Well miniaturization in manufacturing. They should theoretically be able to
get more health sensors in a ring than any other company.
Or a smaller startup has been able to do it. Samsung,
of course, it's a behemoth like Apple has been able
to do it. There's no reason why Apple would technically
not be able to release a ring. Imagine having your

(41:41):
door keys built into the ring, your car key, having
your Apple pay in there, a microphone for Siri. There
are all sorts of bells and whistles that Apple can
put into a ring because of its ecosystem that the
competition simply would be unable to. On top of that,
the synchronization with the rest of the Apple universe, pairing
fortional health metrics from your phone, from your watch, potentially

(42:02):
your earbuds and glasses down the road. So I think
it would be a good fit for the company, and
I do expect them to get into the market at
some point.

Speaker 2 (42:10):
Bloomberg's Mark German and just a reminder to everyone that
tunes in for Bloomberg Tech power On. It's his weekly
newsletter that you really want to subscribe to. That does
it for this edition of Bloomberg Tech carra out in
London for this week.

Speaker 3 (42:24):
Yeah, it is sunny here, Ed, I've got to say,
but don't forget to get out the sun and check
out our podcast every now and then.

Speaker 4 (42:30):
You can find it on the terminal as well as
online on Apple, Spotify

Speaker 3 (42:33):
And iHeart from San Francisco from London today, this is
Bloomberg Tech
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