March 22, 2024 • 38 mins
Bloomberg's Caroline Hyde and Ed Ludlow break down the regulatory overhang for Apple amid the Justice Department's sweeping lawsuit against the iPhone maker. Plus, the outlook for the IPO ecosystem after Astera Labs' and Reddit's strong public debuts.
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news, from.
Speaker 2 (00:09):
The heart where innovations, money and power, Collie in Silicon
Valley and beyond.
Speaker 3 (00:14):
This is Bloomberg Technology with Caroline Hyde and Ed Ludlow.
Speaker 4 (00:32):
I'm Caroline Heidet Bloomberg's World headquarters in New York, and
I met.
Speaker 5 (00:35):
Lover in San Francisco. Happy Friday. This is Bloomberg Technology Long.
Speaker 6 (00:39):
Week coming up.
Speaker 4 (00:40):
We'll discuss the regulatory overhang for Apple, I mean the
Justice Department's sweeping lawsuit against the iPhone maker.
Speaker 6 (00:46):
Full analysis ahead, Plus we'll.
Speaker 5 (00:48):
Get to read on the IPO ecosystem after a Steri
Labs and Reddit went public this week with strong debuts.
Speaker 6 (00:56):
And talking of the big week.
Speaker 4 (00:57):
Bitcoin actually set for one of his worst weeks of
the year, as ETF demand that slows.
Speaker 6 (01:02):
We'll discuss that and so much more throughout this hour.
Speaker 5 (01:04):
Of Apple doj antitrust lawsuit against them and on Thursday
session it had a real material impact on the stock.
You can see actually we're sort of recovering up four
ten to percent in the session, but I still think
it was notable that finally there was a headline about
antitrust relating to Apple, and there was a clear stock
reaction in that session Thursday. What happens next is the
(01:28):
big question from all. Let's bring in Bloomberg's Mark German,
chief correspondent covering Apple. What's changed in the last twenty
four hours since we last spoke. Do we have any
signals from how Apple's going to respond to this suit?
Speaker 3 (01:40):
Yeah? I think reading through the lawsuit reveals a lot.
It reveals that the Department of Justice had been working
on the case for so long that I would say
about sixty to seventy percent of their major points are
things that have already been resolved. Apple doesn't believe, of course,
they would say this that the case holds much water.
(02:01):
They don't believe that they're a monopoly. They seem to
find it perplexing that the government is trying to position
them a monopoly, whereas they believe they only have about
twenty percent global smartphone market share. I think that Apple
is prepared for a fight here. I doubt they're going
to settle. They've settled in some cases, but I don't
think that Tim Cook has shown a willingness to settle.
(02:24):
I think Apple believes and based on my read of
the lawsuit, I'm not seeing much harm towards consumers. I'm
seeing a lot of harm towards developers. I'm seeing harm
towards partners and some rivals. But again, here are their
top five issues the Department of Justice. A lack of
(02:44):
cloud gaming support, allowed of message interoperability, a lack of
super apps, which are things like we Chat, a lack
of support for third party smart watches to the same
degree as the Apple Watch, and a lack of support
for Apple Pay the NFC chip on third party applications.
(03:05):
I think of those five items, at least three, I
would say even three and a half of those items
have already been resolved. I expect the messages situation and
the NFC situations to be resolved as well. But taking
a step back here, you know, despite that, I don't
think the DJ is making great arguments given the resolutions
already in place. You have to be honest here. A
(03:28):
lot of these resolutions are in place because Apple has
been afraid of this impending DOJ lawsuit for several years,
and they knew these were where they would be attacked,
and so they knew they had to fix them. It
just for some reason, Apple implementing the fixes didn't stop
the DOJ from moving forward anyways, This is.
Speaker 6 (03:45):
A global company.
Speaker 4 (03:47):
Tim Cook in China at the moment seemingly all smiles
and some conversations happening with Baydoo around potential generative AI.
Of course, as many would say, as expected, that was
all street journal reporting, Mark. But what seems to be
at stake here is a philosophical difference. Philosophy driving Apple
and the way in which wants its own ecosystem to work,
(04:09):
and a.
Speaker 6 (04:09):
Philosophy that seems to be changing.
Speaker 4 (04:10):
Tach among regulators in the US and Europe is still
looking at Apple as a whole, not just individual places that
they act monopolistically.
Speaker 3 (04:19):
Yeah, a few things. Well, of course Tim Cook is
going to be all smiles in China. He really has
no other option. China is a very important market and
Tim Cook is a poker player. He's not going to
show his true feelings about this DOJ lawsuit, certainly not
in front of the press and in a public setting
(04:39):
as China is. You know, Apple stock took a big
hit yesterday. I could think of ten better reasons for
you to sell your Apple stock than what's in this
DOJ lawsuit. Apple will certainly have to implement changes. I
would imagine that what you've saw in the European Union
regarding the digital market, sac changes, appside loading, opening up
the NFC chip, You're going to see a lot of
(05:00):
those changes over the next years occur in the US.
But I don't think that's going to do much to
change the fundamental situation with Apple. They're making a lot
of money from the app store. They need to figure
out a way to bring a next big hardware category
to market. Everyone thought that was the car. That's probably
what could have added fifty to one hundred billion or
(05:20):
more to Apple's bottom line on an annual basis. That's
what I could have doubled Apple's market cap to several
more trillion over time. That's no longer happening, and so
now I think the biggest issue for Apple is not regulation.
It's not how the app store is going to be impacted.
It's how Apple is going to continue to grow its
hardware business. And don't forget, seventy five percent of Apple
(05:41):
revenue is still hardware. Fundamentally, they are a hardware company,
and so they really need to figure out how they
expand there. But still AI, that's another important component, and
they need to figure out that situation too.
Speaker 4 (05:53):
Need the next catalyst, Mark German, We thank you for
really breaking that all down, and we.
Speaker 6 (05:56):
Want to just delve into the overhand from.
Speaker 4 (05:59):
A regulatory perspect to go a little bit more and
the nuances around it.
Speaker 6 (06:02):
William Cover chitches with.
Speaker 4 (06:03):
Us George Washington Law School, Global Competition Professor of Law
and Policy work at the CMO of and UK at
one point, and William to that, and we all know
that these sorts of legal wranglings are distraction. How much
impact do you think you will have on a business model.
Speaker 7 (06:16):
I think the distraction comes from the number of people
inside the company you have to commit to support the litigation.
We don't know what that number is, but the experience
in other major cases is that this can be a
significant drag on the company. You have also the inhibition
that comes from the pending lawsuits. Companies don't want to
provide additional ammunition for prosecutors. It means that they're not
(06:38):
quite as agile, not quite as adroit in developing business programs.
I realize these are somewhat intangible consequences, but then cumulatively,
when you take all of the developments we've just been
talking about, in the United States and abroad. It's an
avalanche of regulatory oversight that has to sap to some
extent the creative energy of the company.
Speaker 5 (07:01):
Mister Kovachich, we sometimes talk about in this program regulating
through the courts, you know, a legal action to get
a result, that's the bigger picture. Is there an avenue
where Apple and the DOJ can just work this out
outside of court?
Speaker 7 (07:15):
I would think there's always the possibility of reaching a solution.
The solution, though, is going to have to be one
that persuades the just This Department that the overall aim
of any specific settlement is not subject to evasion by
additional adjustments in.
Speaker 3 (07:31):
The business model.
Speaker 7 (07:32):
They'll have to be confident that the solution is one
that they can monitor and oversee effectively. I think that
there would be a willingness to discuss settlements. But a
major message that has come from the age agencies in
the US in recent years is a great deal of
skepticism about the efficacy of many settlement arrangements and doubts
about how readily you can implement them and be effective.
Speaker 5 (07:56):
In your reading of the suit itself, do you think
the JAY.
Speaker 8 (08:00):
Has a point here?
Speaker 7 (08:02):
They do have a point, and the point is one
that in a sense involves again a collection of intangible considerations.
But there's anxiety about the possibility that incumbent firms that
have a significant market position, will, through a variety of tactics,
diminish the emergence of alternative technologies and.
Speaker 3 (08:23):
New business models.
Speaker 7 (08:24):
That concern might be very much the feeling that anti
trust law failed in the last thirty years to deal
effectively with the emergence of new tech. And I believe
a state of mind and perspective that has a tight
grip on the agencies is that they're not going to
allow the permissiveness of the past to continue. And it
(08:45):
means that they're going to dig in and look carefully
at anything that appears to be an effort by an
incumbent to see that new technologies, new business approaches do
not emerge.
Speaker 6 (08:56):
This is dj action.
Speaker 4 (08:58):
We've seen FTC have a similar focus. But sometimes this
is political. In an election year, does this sort of continue.
Speaker 7 (09:07):
I'm going to give you a bit of speculation that
I could never prove in a rigorous way, but I
noticed that President Biden's opponent in many instances has been
skeptical of tech. Now that skepticism has been focused in
particular on the information services platforms that are involved in
involved in advertising, involved in social messaging.
Speaker 3 (09:29):
But it was Donald Trump's Justice.
Speaker 7 (09:31):
Department that initiated the Google search monopolization case. It was
Donald Trump's Federal Trade Commission that began the lawsuit against
Meta for its acquisition of Instagram. It could entirely be
possible that, at least for tech, given the way their
political contributions go, given his concern about the role they've
played in his own electoral process in the past, that
(09:53):
he may look at the FTC in the Department of
Justice and say, keep up the good work.
Speaker 4 (09:58):
It was a Trump as well when this was first
initiated to Apple back in twenty nineteen, William cover Chich,
we thank you so much.
Speaker 6 (10:05):
George Washington Law School, absolutely brilliant to get his take.
Speaker 4 (10:07):
Mean while coming up, Look, we're going to be chatting
to a head moderator of Reddit forum all street bets.
You know you know it, well, I's going to be
joining us find out how reddits ipo, how much the
effect to the user base there's in Bloomberg Technology.
Speaker 5 (10:34):
The fourth largest IPO of the year, Reddit climbed forty
eight percent on its first day of trading yesterday, after
pricing at the top of its marketed range, raising seven
hundred and forty eight million dollars. Let's bring in Bloombo's
Katie Ruth, who has lived and breathed reddits ipo this week.
That's true. I mean for many people, I would say
(10:54):
this went well.
Speaker 8 (10:55):
This ipo.
Speaker 6 (10:56):
So it did the first day.
Speaker 9 (10:58):
Right now it's trading down, although yes, technically it's still
above well above the IPO price, it's not really much
above where it opened yesterday. And so I think there's
two numbers to watch here. It's the thirty four dollars
where priced at the top of the range, and that's
where the insiders, you could say, the institutional investors that
have banker connections, that's where they bought. And then some
(11:19):
some of Reddit's top users were able to buy at
that price. And then there's everybody else which bought it
that forty seven dollars a share where it opened yesterday,
and right now it's trading at.
Speaker 8 (11:30):
Forty seven ish.
Speaker 9 (11:31):
So and it was actually dipped below that opening price
this morning for a little bit, so some people could
have already lost some money on Reddit. But you know,
most are making money.
Speaker 4 (11:42):
And certainly long term investors have cashed in here potentially, Katie,
I'm interested as to what this means for ongoing IPOs,
what this means more broadly, for money left on the table.
Speaker 6 (11:53):
We want IPOs to do well.
Speaker 4 (11:55):
Bankers certainly do, but the people raising the money don't
want them to go too well and feel that they
could have rais Yeah, the money left on.
Speaker 9 (12:02):
The table argument is an interesting one. It sounds like
what you're referencing is where they could have raised even
more money and had less of a pop. I think
it's too early to tell whether Reddit allowed for too
much of a pop. You know, as I noted, it's
already trading lower today, and you know, we'll see what
happens next week. But you know, it depends on what
they're optimizing for. If they if they're just optimizing for
(12:24):
raising a little bit more cash, then you want to
price it high. But you don't want to make a
bad first impression on the stock market because it could
be really hard to recover from that. And so that's
you know, the argument that the bankers will make about
why they price it to pop. They also want these insiders,
these large anchor investors to keep buying more shares you know,
(12:48):
in this IPO and ips to come, and they're not
going to do that. They're not going to take that
risk on a new listing on the first day unless
they feel like they're getting some sort of discount.
Speaker 4 (12:58):
Katie with go get some thank you so much as
we brace for more IPOs to come in the next
few weeks, I'm sure, but well, we want to get
a take.
Speaker 6 (13:06):
On how the users, those redditors are.
Speaker 4 (13:09):
Feeling about the company's IPO. They had a chance to
buy in, and of course we know the a vocal bunch.
Nor ours with us as a senior analyst and private
equity back to healthcare company. There's also been a Reddit
user for more than ten years, a moderator for the.
Speaker 6 (13:21):
Forum Wall Street Bets for.
Speaker 4 (13:22):
Nine, spending the most recent three years as a head moderator.
He joins us now to tell us more well basically
about Reddit's debut. How has Wall Street bets, How has
your community reacted?
Speaker 6 (13:33):
Have you been positive on it?
Speaker 3 (13:35):
It's really been a mixed bag.
Speaker 10 (13:36):
There's a ton of positivity but also a lot of
people excited to short byputs. But Paul and all, they're
just excited for the volatility, and that's absolutely what we're
seeing here today.
Speaker 5 (13:47):
Nor last week on the show, we reported on the
post that Reddit made itself saying we're going to do
an AMA and we will answer the questions in video format,
selecting the most up to posts. At the time that
we reported it on this program, the most upvoted post
is why are you even going public? It's not a
great vibe right now. Just give me your reaction to that.
(14:10):
I mean, it's the function of Reddit ironically pushing the
management to think again.
Speaker 10 (14:16):
Absolutely, yeah, I think this is actually a great time
for Reddit to IPOs I'm surprised. Certainly there was a
lot of turmoil over the past year, but if you
look at what came out of that from a business perspective,
it's actually been very positive. We saw with the Reddit
protests that actually people found Reddit completely indispensable. There was
so much opportunity for a competitor to take reddits place,
(14:40):
and nothing came out of it. So this just goes
to show how deeply ingrained Reddit is in the zeitgeist
and that it's here to stay.
Speaker 5 (14:48):
Nor there are many redditors and indeed moderators that have
big concerns on reddits plan to license user and platform
data to AI companies to use it to train la lens.
What's your position on it from.
Speaker 10 (15:02):
A business perspective, It's definitely a risk. We're seeing that
the FTC is also looking into this, but it is
a huge opportunity and Reddit owns something that is very
special for lllms, and that is real time user reactions
to what's going on in the world around us, and
that's something that I think no other platform has. So
(15:23):
it's a great opportunity for Reddit to make money off
of that and then turn around and invest that money
in improving the user experience.
Speaker 4 (15:30):
No, I want to ask about the evolution of moderation,
because money would say in anticipation in the IPO, reditor
really read it, really got ahead of ensuring that this
became a safer space to.
Speaker 6 (15:43):
Be able to comment. Does that stand?
Speaker 4 (15:46):
How has anything been lost in the focus of needing
to clean up the platform.
Speaker 10 (15:50):
We've definitely lost a little bit of the chaos and
grit that you would have seen on Reddit ten fifteen
years ago. And although that lose some of its charm,
I think it's more reflective of the state of the
Internet rather than Reddit as a platform itself. We're seeing
all platforms, social media platforms censor in response to government
(16:14):
regulations and laws that have been placed on hate speech
and other types of speech.
Speaker 3 (16:20):
So Reddit is actually maintaining.
Speaker 10 (16:23):
Its position as the front page of the Internet and
simply reflecting what is on the Internet through these policy changes.
Speaker 4 (16:30):
Wall streetbats was what we talked about day in, day
out in twenty twenty one through twenty twenty two name
being made around GameStop, the power that reditors had in
that moment. What do you think the powers of redditors
around the Reddit stock itself.
Speaker 10 (16:48):
It'll be interesting to see It'll be interesting to see
you when redditors feel empowered that the actions they take
on the platform can make a meaningful impact on the
stock price of Reddit itself. Like with the game Stop debacle,
we saw over a billion page views in a very
very short period of time in a month, and we
saw that continue for several months. So to think that
(17:10):
redditors now who are might be investors themselves, can have
a positive impact on the stock will simply deepen their
relationship with the company and with the platform.
Speaker 5 (17:20):
No, we just have thirty seconds for someone that has
no idea what Reddit is what's your pitch for them
to get onto the platform.
Speaker 10 (17:27):
Reddit is a city that is incredibly deep, with countless
communities to fill every need that you knew or didn't
know that you are interested in learning more about. If
you've got an intellectual curiosity that can't be satisfied, Reddit
is the place for you.
Speaker 5 (17:42):
Head moderator for and Wall Street bets on Reddit, and
I point out that moderators are volunteers to all intents
and purposes and are how great to have you on
the program.
Speaker 4 (17:59):
Time Now tech first Up mayto one's quarterly revenue, it
climbed better than expected twenty three percent. Now that's a
sign that the company is actually making some headway in
its efforts to fend off a challenge from Byte Dances
Doyen in China's meal delivery arena. Now shares in the
company are up this year after losing more than half
of their value in twenty twenty three. Plus Wawei and
a secretive chip making partner in China, Well, they file
(18:21):
patterns for a lower tech but potentially effective way to
make advanced semiconductors.
Speaker 6 (18:26):
And we're talking about self aligned quadruple patterning here or SAQP.
Speaker 4 (18:30):
Basically, it's raising the prospect that China could improve chip
production techniques despite.
Speaker 6 (18:35):
US efforts to hold its progress.
Speaker 4 (18:37):
And lastly, Tesla, we'll go chick with steck with China
here because it's reduced production at its plants over there
amid us some sluggish growth and EV sales and intense
competition in the.
Speaker 6 (18:46):
World's biggest all code auto market.
Speaker 4 (18:48):
Now the car maker has instructed employees at its Shanghai
facility to lower production of the Model Y and Model three.
That's two vehicles that Tesla actually makes over there in
China by working just five days a week instead of
usual six and a half half days.
Speaker 6 (19:00):
All of this, according to sources.
Speaker 5 (19:03):
British audience in the UK pay attention. Vodaphone and Three's
UK combination is facing a deep check by the UK
Competition Markets Authority, the CMA, the regulator. They issued a
statement Friday saying they're concerned and they don't buy the
argument from Vodafone and three that combining the two would
(19:25):
mean better deals for customers. Vodaphones London listed shares actually
at one point eight percent with a little to go,
but it's an interesting story about consolidation in that market.
Speaker 8 (19:37):
This is Bloomberg.
Speaker 6 (19:46):
Welcome back to me new MEOT technology. I'm Caroline Hid
in New.
Speaker 8 (19:48):
York and I'm Ed Ludlow in San Francisco.
Speaker 4 (19:51):
Let's talk about this whole new wave of IPO names.
Read at Asteri Labs debuting this week and just whether
or not that's going to open up the pipeline. A
little bit more broadly, eyipa Practice Co had richual Garings
here to take basically on the feel good factor right now.
Thus far these companies have come to the market and come.
Speaker 6 (20:09):
Well, does that mean suddenly the.
Speaker 4 (20:11):
Yours the other names that we've been waiting for for
a long time, I'm gonna be galvanized.
Speaker 6 (20:15):
Do you think it.
Speaker 1 (20:16):
Definitely helps the momentum for what we're expecting in the
IPO market, the pipeline that.
Speaker 11 (20:22):
We're seeing come through. As you all, we're noting.
Speaker 1 (20:25):
Though, the post IPO performance of these companies that even
the ones before them, will really help continue setting the
stage and help influence what will continue coming to market
over these next several months and throughout the remainder of
twenty four We've got.
Speaker 11 (20:39):
You know, positive momentum.
Speaker 1 (20:41):
The trends are all going in the right way, but
not without its challenges. We're in a political you know cycle,
a political election cycle this year, so you know there's
going to continue to be elements and dynamics.
Speaker 4 (20:52):
That everyone's going to have to navigate, dynamics being also
that the market is hungered for hungry for AI names.
When you're advising these companies, when that are coming to
you saying I want to navigate the quidity events, I
want to analyze the market.
Speaker 6 (21:05):
Do you think about.
Speaker 4 (21:07):
Basically where they need to be dining out on AI
for example, Well.
Speaker 1 (21:11):
A AI is certainly something drawing a lot of focus interests,
particularly from investors, and when we think about AI, I
think about it in kind.
Speaker 11 (21:20):
Of a few different buckets. You got the pure play.
Speaker 1 (21:23):
AI companies, those that are developing the technology. There is
a lot of continued interest in this area, particularly in.
Speaker 11 (21:30):
The private financing space.
Speaker 1 (21:32):
So these companies are generally getting funded and where we
start seeing a flood of you know, ideos from them
over the coming months, and ye're meeting at onesie twosies,
but they're getting the financing they need, they're developing the technology.
But then I also look at other companies and how
they're employing AI within their companies and relative.
Speaker 11 (21:52):
To their strategy. We're seeing that play out.
Speaker 1 (21:54):
We're going to continue, not without skepticism from investors, kind
of proving it to me. And you've got those kind
of in the broader ecosystem that we're seeing right now
and how they're contributing to the A to AI in
that broader ecosystem, and we're going to continue seeing those
come to market as well.
Speaker 5 (22:10):
Rachel, this is exactly what I was writing about in
my column in Tech Daily this morning, that Reddit, for example,
got its AI story right going into the IPO, you know,
the data licensing business. I think what would be interesting
to learn from you is what's more important that in
the S one process and the road show you sell
your AI story or is it more important that actually,
(22:33):
now a company like Reddit is listed, they can prove
they have an AI business, you know, after the fact
that it's actually real.
Speaker 11 (22:41):
I think both are critical for obvious reasons.
Speaker 1 (22:44):
But where we're seeing, you know, even when you're putting
that into your S one, going through your road shows,
investors asking you know, to prove it. So it's that
more it's not just about writing about the possibility and
the idea.
Speaker 11 (22:59):
But what have you done even up to this point to.
Speaker 1 (23:02):
Share with investors how you're proving this out, how you
truly have a strong plan that you're then now executing on.
And then proof will be in the putting post IPO,
how you're coming out and continuing to execute.
Speaker 11 (23:14):
And perform to back all of that up.
Speaker 1 (23:18):
And so as we continue to watch the performance of
these stocks, you know, two months from now, three months
from now so forth, they've got to continue demonstrating that
performance and stay good on the promises and commitments they made.
Speaker 5 (23:29):
Rachel, how do you assess this week, this week's IPO window.
I don't even know if we call it window versus
what we saw in September.
Speaker 1 (23:38):
You know, this is to me demonstrating, you know, we've
got investor interest around IPOs. The companies that are coming
to market right now is what we've expected. They're stilled,
they're large, they have a name, they have some history,
you know, performance history behind them as well. So the
risk profile is one of an appetite that's attracting investors.
Speaker 6 (24:00):
As they continue to.
Speaker 1 (24:01):
Perform, hopefully that starts to open up opportunity for more
the growth oriented companies to start coming to market and
really help drive some momentum and valumes over time getting
inspect to those historical norms.
Speaker 11 (24:12):
But this is it's going to be instead a steady recovery.
Speaker 1 (24:15):
We're not expecting a big, you know, balloon if you will,
or huge kind of spike. A steady recovery is what
we've continued to expect throughout twenty twenty four.
Speaker 11 (24:24):
As we continue to see the market rebound.
Speaker 4 (24:27):
I'm chure what's the motivating factor here? Med It wanted
IPO for years.
Speaker 6 (24:32):
Says twenty twenty one. It was about a liquidity event.
Speaker 4 (24:34):
For employees largely, but I'm sure time for investors to
have some money back.
Speaker 6 (24:39):
What's driving other names?
Speaker 11 (24:42):
Everyone had their facts and circumstances.
Speaker 1 (24:44):
Some's going to be you know, they're going to be
anchoring around valuations and are they getting to a valuation
that they're expecting liquidity for employees, for other founders a
lot of PE right, we're going to start seeing how
how is PE going to start driving valuume. They've been
having some companies they've been holding for quite some time.
They want to start entering back into the M and
A market. As we see rates coming down, hopefully we'll
(25:07):
see more M and A activity even more from pe.
I think that's going to start influencing some exit from
their stage as well.
Speaker 4 (25:16):
We want to thank you ey IPO Practice cohad Rachel
goering there on the IPO landscape where we just want
to stick with well companies going public none all of
them do IPOs, some of them do SPACs.
Speaker 6 (25:26):
And former President Donald Trump's.
Speaker 4 (25:28):
Media startup is likely to debut as a public company.
Speaker 6 (25:31):
In coming days. Having voted today on whether.
Speaker 4 (25:34):
Blank Check Company Digital World acquisition can proceed with taking
Trump Media and Technology Group public. It runs, of course
truth Social the platform, and it's been a long delayed
deal and seemingly has now approved. And a number of
insiders from management to sponsors and even former associates who
soone to stall or block the deal stand to pocket
millions of dollars and what have you got?
Speaker 5 (25:55):
Okay, Coming up on the program, we're going to dive
into the world of climate investing AI. What on earth
happened this week in IPOs, everything and anything that we've
spoken about this week with Initialized Capital partner Kim Mai Cutler.
Really looking forward to that conversation. Next, this has Bloom
their technology. This is the Blackwell GPU or graphics processing
(26:30):
unit in Vidia's next generation AI accelerator, and it's the
star of GtC in Vidia's annual developers conference, which has
been dubbed the Woodstock for AI.
Speaker 8 (26:40):
The B two hundred is more powerful than the H
one hundred.
Speaker 5 (26:43):
The prior generation AI accelerator that's driven in video to
be the world's third most valuable company compared to Hopper.
Blackwell offers two point five times the performance for training
large language models and five times performance for running the model,
a process known as inference. In offer Blackwell in different forms,
including is the GB two hundred super chip, two Blackwell
(27:04):
GPUs and one Grace CPU in combination. Trays and trays
of GB two hundred go into liquid called rack scale
systems like this and ship to server companies and cloud
providers for their data centers. It's a market that Nvidia's
CEO says will start at two hundred and fifty billion
dollars annually and grow from there. The technology is capable
of processing AI models with one trillion parameters. GtC crowds
(27:29):
literally circled around the single demo server rak in droves.
Speaker 8 (27:33):
The real thing start shipping in late twenty twenty four, so.
Speaker 5 (27:39):
Among everything else, GtC ended last night, Caro, and you
know it was all about bow down to Blackwell.
Speaker 8 (27:45):
And the deity.
Speaker 5 (27:46):
Whether you're an AI startup founder or you are ADEL
or an infrastructure company, bow down to Jensen Wang and
in that might sound extreme, but trust me, they're on
the ground.
Speaker 3 (27:57):
It was true.
Speaker 4 (27:58):
And share prices really read benefit as well, not so
much of Nvidio, but sort of those that he anointed
the synopsis of this world, you say, Dell as well,
some of these companies managing to push on higher because
we are starting to see how they're able to tap
into this ecosystem that basically is the driving force from
an infrastructure perspective of everything that we now talk from
a value perspective in well public.
Speaker 6 (28:20):
And private markets.
Speaker 5 (28:22):
And as we've been saying, the show, get the AI
story right, because AI was also a big part of
the story. Yesterday, for Reddits public listing Day, Initialized Capitals
celebrated the IPO of its portfolio company, which is banking
on licensing its users data to builders of large language
models to fuel reddits growth. Let's bringing Initialized Capital partner
(28:43):
k in my cutler for more.
Speaker 8 (28:44):
In today's VC Spotlight.
Speaker 5 (28:47):
I wrote in my column today Reddit got the AI story, right,
I just thought it was really interesting that they went
there with that.
Speaker 8 (28:56):
What did you make of it?
Speaker 12 (28:57):
I mean, I think it's a tremendous day or the
whole team there for Steve, for Alexis. You know, that
company in particular has a long history and close ties
obviously with Sam Altman who runs openings, and so I
think that relationship over the last decade and more really
benefited their ability to ride this wave and rend itself
(29:19):
as an incredible consumer internet property. I mean, I'm a
user multiple times a day every day. I mean the
wealth of information that I have in all the different
like subcommunities, and the way that people talk honestly and
openly and freely about.
Speaker 6 (29:32):
What they think.
Speaker 12 (29:33):
You know, it's just an incredible data source and training set.
Speaker 5 (29:36):
So what I find so interesting, particularly in the context
of where Initialized will deploy capital, right, the types of
startups that you'd invest in is redd It's an example
of where you don't need to be a builder of
large language models or an infrastructure play to be a
participant in what's happening in AI. Do you have any
parallel examples of companies you think will benefit from the
(29:57):
infrastructure investment that's happening.
Speaker 12 (30:00):
I think for us, you know, we've long done many,
many different deals that have you know, very specific applications
to different workflows and different industries. So for example, you know,
you could think about the healthcare use case. We have
a company called glass Health that supports medical professionals and diagnoses.
We have another company called Parta that you know serves
(30:20):
as an AI copilot for financial compliance. And so there's
all these different specific industries with specific like legal requirements,
workflows and ways that people work that will need you know,
very very honed and refined applications of these foundational.
Speaker 6 (30:36):
Models and kill.
Speaker 4 (30:38):
It's a long way coming for some of these checks
that you've made into the Glass Health that you mentioned,
pano arenas, some of these other AI adjacent names that
you've invested in.
Speaker 6 (30:48):
How are you thinking about exit strategy?
Speaker 1 (30:50):
Though?
Speaker 4 (30:50):
Longer term, what's been so interesting about this week was
also the Microsoft basically acqua hire of Inflection Stuff assum
when originally of DeepMind go Mean to be the head
of consumer AI from Microsoft. It feels as though big
tech juggernals are partnering in.
Speaker 6 (31:05):
More and more innovative ways to some of the larger
language model companies. But how cool does that go for
the entire ecosystem here?
Speaker 12 (31:13):
Yeah, I mean, I think some of the developments that
we've seen this week are reflection of consolidation in players
in the foundational market, the foundational model market. So obviously
they're there are companies that are far at a way
you know, have tremendous you know, revenue you know, like
revenue run rates and thinking like Shatgypt and Nanthropic, and
(31:34):
then companies that aren't quite at that level or don't
have that same level of revenue growth are having to
make different decisions about you know, what they need to
do given the cost of compute and the cost of
going forward. You know, I think, you know, as a
seat stage investor, we have companies that we're working with
for you know, we might be working with them for
(31:54):
five to ten ten years before we go you know public.
And you know, if I look at the early you know,
some of the earlier friends, our previous IPOs like Instacurrent,
Coybats have also had you know, a very positive momentum
over the last six six months, two a year. And
then going forward, we're going to have companies that perhaps
(32:15):
you and I will be talking about in five, seven
or ten years.
Speaker 4 (32:18):
What's been interesting this week in the context of AI,
whether it's US China relations, but there's also a context
more broadly of where the government plays with this.
Speaker 6 (32:28):
We had or cause, the big announcement from.
Speaker 4 (32:30):
Intel getting more subsidies to be able to be building
here in the United States, and I know that's something
that you're thinking a lot about.
Speaker 6 (32:36):
In the context of climate.
Speaker 4 (32:37):
Technology as well, we have money being pushed from the
EV perspective this week, regulation being pushed from an EV
perspective to really perhaps enhance electric vehicle manufacturing here in
the US. Can I when you're thinking about the opportunity
IRA or another way of investing in climate tech, does
that stick.
Speaker 8 (32:57):
Absolutely?
Speaker 12 (32:57):
I mean, you know, the government, the IRA has provided
a number of you know, carrots and sticks, predominantly carrots
that have tremendously expanded the market for some of our companies. So,
for example, having more punitive measures around methane emissions is
a is a real benefit to one of our company's, Orbio,
which is using satellite imagery to really pinpoint methane leaks
(33:21):
from specific facilities. You know, the incentives and the IRA
around you know, revenue or purchase. Government purchases of carbon
removal are also helping to mature that market. And we
have another company in southern California from a former SpaceX
engineer called Clarity that is doing carbon dioxide removal at uh,
(33:42):
you know, with lower energy intensity and usage and costs.
Speaker 5 (33:45):
I'm sure because right at the top of your blog
post which I read this morning, you were talking about
the Chips Act.
Speaker 8 (33:51):
Yeah, at lower down at the early stage. Is there
any benefit felt by the Chips Act in terms of
inflation Reduction Act?
Speaker 1 (33:58):
Right?
Speaker 12 (33:58):
Inflation reduction? That's right, I mean, there's there's there's obviously
benefits from both. But like if we're talking about you know,
a long term investment in you know, the United States
ability around manufacturing and deep tech, I think that's you know,
bringing in a lot of like tax rep you know,
tax credits and tax incentives around building facilities here in
(34:20):
this country. So for example, you know, to to really
get carbon removal to the next stage, we're going to
have to see facilities all over you know, the United States,
particularly in you know, in the Southwest where Clarity is
looking to do its first production facility and its first
facility as well. And that's going to create a tremendous
amount of jobs for all kinds of Americans.
Speaker 5 (34:40):
Innationalist capital partner, can I cut look great to have
you here on set in San Francisco.
Speaker 8 (34:44):
Thank you.
Speaker 3 (34:53):
I love playing just there.
Speaker 11 (34:54):
So this is one of the things that we all
have enabled me to do something that I wasn't able to.
Speaker 12 (35:00):
Really do much the last few years, especially not like this.
Speaker 3 (35:06):
I had to use like a mouth stick and suffer.
Now it's well, it's all being done with my brain.
Speaker 4 (35:12):
Just part of a live stream with Neuralink's first brain
implant patient, showing a quadriplegic man who was able to
play video games and online.
Speaker 6 (35:21):
Chess using just his mind.
Speaker 4 (35:22):
Neuralink, of course, is a brain technology startup founded by
Elon musk Is. Implant allows a patient to use their.
Speaker 6 (35:28):
Thoughts to control a computer.
Speaker 7 (35:31):
Ed.
Speaker 5 (35:32):
Bitcoin has peeled back more than ten percent from its
all time high and maybe headed for one of its
worst weeks of twenty twenty four. This is the appetite
the spot Bitcoin ETF seems to be slowing down. Big
Go CEO Mike Belshe joins us, Now that was the intro.
What do you think is happening right now? With Bitcoin.
Speaker 13 (35:50):
Well, usually I do not like to predict price, but
I think we're at a very very good time. Of course,
there's some consolidation, as saying, I guess in the space
that hey, if you're not ready for my twenty percent drops,
you're certainly not ready for my six hundred percent increases.
Speaker 2 (36:04):
But overall, what we're seeing some consolidation.
Speaker 13 (36:06):
The ETFs just launched, we've seen tremendous run up in
a very short period of time. A little bit of
pullback is happening, but you know, all of the macro
climate remains extremely bullish for bitcoin, primarily due to what
people know about the long term just what we care
about most at bitco, which is look term macro looks
like we're still going to be very solid with having
(36:27):
a static supply of bitcoin being something that you can
count on that doesn't get eroded. And of course, you
know fiat currencies continuing to do massive changes with debt
and deficits and no sign of change for that front.
Speaker 3 (36:41):
Bitcoin.
Speaker 4 (36:42):
We've got the Harbing coming up as well, potentially another
underpinning of price. But who's been getting into these ETFs
and we've been able.
Speaker 6 (36:48):
To manage flow his mine.
Speaker 2 (36:49):
We have a little bit.
Speaker 13 (36:51):
Actually, so far, I think it's been mostly the smaller
ticket sizes. So remember, institutions move pretty slowly, pretty glacially. Frankly,
I think we've seen a wave of retail here over
the last two and a half months. I think it's
getting a little bit bigger. But the institutions, you know,
we've seen some smaller hedge funds come in, Larger hedge
funds will come in. Pension funds are coming, endowments are
(37:11):
already here. So now that we have an ETF available,
which is the distribution channel, which makes it super easy
for everybody to participate. It takes a little bit of
time to go through investment committees, but I think that
we're starting to see that run up happen now all
through the summer at rhymes.
Speaker 2 (37:26):
So you should say it eightyk by May.
Speaker 8 (37:29):
In the moment the calendar its and the harving, what happens?
Do you think?
Speaker 3 (37:34):
So?
Speaker 13 (37:34):
The having is an interesting pattern that people look at,
but I think really the most interesting part is the
long term meaning of the having. So bitcoin has a
monetary policy which was set in motion back in two
thousand and nine, and it has remained completely unchanged since
that time. It's the longest standing unchanged monetary policy in
the history of mankind, and this having is a demonstration
(37:57):
that bitcoin has a solid commitment, unchangeable commitment to that policy,
which we'll keep going. So with the having the supply
decreases on a block by block basis, which means that
we see a lower rate of inflation. Some measure this
stock to flow and other measurements of how you compare
that to other assets?
Speaker 7 (38:13):
Right?
Speaker 2 (38:13):
How they but bitcoins in a very good stead is one.
Speaker 13 (38:16):
Of the most static supply assets on the planet, him
will she It's been great to catch up with you.
Speaker 4 (38:22):
Thank you so much bitco ceo. As we have seen,
of course, one of the worst weeks for bitcoin this year.
That does it for this though edition of BlueBag Technology.
Speaker 5 (38:30):
Yet what a week has been. What an ends of
the week? Check out the podcast. So many of you
are listening to the podcast. The platforms are Apple, Spotify,
iHeart and of course we publish to all of our
own platforms here at Bloomberg from San Francisco and New
York City.
Speaker 8 (38:46):
This is Bloomberg Technology
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news, from.
Speaker 2 (00:09):
The heart where innovations, money and power, Collie in Silicon
Valley and beyond.
Speaker 3 (00:14):
This is Bloomberg Technology with Caroline Hyde and Ed Ludlow.
Speaker 4 (00:32):
I'm Caroline Heidet Bloomberg's World headquarters in New York, and
I met.
Speaker 5 (00:35):
Lover in San Francisco. Happy Friday. This is Bloomberg Technology Long.
Speaker 6 (00:39):
Week coming up.
Speaker 4 (00:40):
We'll discuss the regulatory overhang for Apple, I mean the
Justice Department's sweeping lawsuit against the iPhone maker.
Speaker 6 (00:46):
Full analysis ahead, Plus we'll.
Speaker 5 (00:48):
Get to read on the IPO ecosystem after a Steri
Labs and Reddit went public this week with strong debuts.
Speaker 6 (00:56):
And talking of the big week.
Speaker 4 (00:57):
Bitcoin actually set for one of his worst weeks of
the year, as ETF demand that slows.
Speaker 6 (01:02):
We'll discuss that and so much more throughout this hour.
Speaker 5 (01:04):
Of Apple doj antitrust lawsuit against them and on Thursday
session it had a real material impact on the stock.
You can see actually we're sort of recovering up four
ten to percent in the session, but I still think
it was notable that finally there was a headline about
antitrust relating to Apple, and there was a clear stock
reaction in that session Thursday. What happens next is the
(01:28):
big question from all. Let's bring in Bloomberg's Mark German,
chief correspondent covering Apple. What's changed in the last twenty
four hours since we last spoke. Do we have any
signals from how Apple's going to respond to this suit?
Speaker 3 (01:40):
Yeah? I think reading through the lawsuit reveals a lot.
It reveals that the Department of Justice had been working
on the case for so long that I would say
about sixty to seventy percent of their major points are
things that have already been resolved. Apple doesn't believe, of course,
they would say this that the case holds much water.
(02:01):
They don't believe that they're a monopoly. They seem to
find it perplexing that the government is trying to position
them a monopoly, whereas they believe they only have about
twenty percent global smartphone market share. I think that Apple
is prepared for a fight here. I doubt they're going
to settle. They've settled in some cases, but I don't
think that Tim Cook has shown a willingness to settle.
(02:24):
I think Apple believes and based on my read of
the lawsuit, I'm not seeing much harm towards consumers. I'm
seeing a lot of harm towards developers. I'm seeing harm
towards partners and some rivals. But again, here are their
top five issues the Department of Justice. A lack of
(02:44):
cloud gaming support, allowed of message interoperability, a lack of
super apps, which are things like we Chat, a lack
of support for third party smart watches to the same
degree as the Apple Watch, and a lack of support
for Apple Pay the NFC chip on third party applications.
(03:05):
I think of those five items, at least three, I
would say even three and a half of those items
have already been resolved. I expect the messages situation and
the NFC situations to be resolved as well. But taking
a step back here, you know, despite that, I don't
think the DJ is making great arguments given the resolutions
already in place. You have to be honest here. A
(03:28):
lot of these resolutions are in place because Apple has
been afraid of this impending DOJ lawsuit for several years,
and they knew these were where they would be attacked,
and so they knew they had to fix them. It
just for some reason, Apple implementing the fixes didn't stop
the DOJ from moving forward anyways, This is.
Speaker 6 (03:45):
A global company.
Speaker 4 (03:47):
Tim Cook in China at the moment seemingly all smiles
and some conversations happening with Baydoo around potential generative AI.
Of course, as many would say, as expected, that was
all street journal reporting, Mark. But what seems to be
at stake here is a philosophical difference. Philosophy driving Apple
and the way in which wants its own ecosystem to work,
(04:09):
and a.
Speaker 6 (04:09):
Philosophy that seems to be changing.
Speaker 4 (04:10):
Tach among regulators in the US and Europe is still
looking at Apple as a whole, not just individual places that
they act monopolistically.
Speaker 3 (04:19):
Yeah, a few things. Well, of course Tim Cook is
going to be all smiles in China. He really has
no other option. China is a very important market and
Tim Cook is a poker player. He's not going to
show his true feelings about this DOJ lawsuit, certainly not
in front of the press and in a public setting
(04:39):
as China is. You know, Apple stock took a big
hit yesterday. I could think of ten better reasons for
you to sell your Apple stock than what's in this
DOJ lawsuit. Apple will certainly have to implement changes. I
would imagine that what you've saw in the European Union
regarding the digital market, sac changes, appside loading, opening up
the NFC chip, You're going to see a lot of
(05:00):
those changes over the next years occur in the US.
But I don't think that's going to do much to
change the fundamental situation with Apple. They're making a lot
of money from the app store. They need to figure
out a way to bring a next big hardware category
to market. Everyone thought that was the car. That's probably
what could have added fifty to one hundred billion or
(05:20):
more to Apple's bottom line on an annual basis. That's
what I could have doubled Apple's market cap to several
more trillion over time. That's no longer happening, and so
now I think the biggest issue for Apple is not regulation.
It's not how the app store is going to be impacted.
It's how Apple is going to continue to grow its
hardware business. And don't forget, seventy five percent of Apple
(05:41):
revenue is still hardware. Fundamentally, they are a hardware company,
and so they really need to figure out how they
expand there. But still AI, that's another important component, and
they need to figure out that situation too.
Speaker 4 (05:53):
Need the next catalyst, Mark German, We thank you for
really breaking that all down, and we.
Speaker 6 (05:56):
Want to just delve into the overhand from.
Speaker 4 (05:59):
A regulatory perspect to go a little bit more and
the nuances around it.
Speaker 6 (06:02):
William Cover chitches with.
Speaker 4 (06:03):
Us George Washington Law School, Global Competition Professor of Law
and Policy work at the CMO of and UK at
one point, and William to that, and we all know
that these sorts of legal wranglings are distraction. How much
impact do you think you will have on a business model.
Speaker 7 (06:16):
I think the distraction comes from the number of people
inside the company you have to commit to support the litigation.
We don't know what that number is, but the experience
in other major cases is that this can be a
significant drag on the company. You have also the inhibition
that comes from the pending lawsuits. Companies don't want to
provide additional ammunition for prosecutors. It means that they're not
(06:38):
quite as agile, not quite as adroit in developing business programs.
I realize these are somewhat intangible consequences, but then cumulatively,
when you take all of the developments we've just been
talking about, in the United States and abroad. It's an
avalanche of regulatory oversight that has to sap to some
extent the creative energy of the company.
Speaker 5 (07:01):
Mister Kovachich, we sometimes talk about in this program regulating
through the courts, you know, a legal action to get
a result, that's the bigger picture. Is there an avenue
where Apple and the DOJ can just work this out
outside of court?
Speaker 7 (07:15):
I would think there's always the possibility of reaching a solution.
The solution, though, is going to have to be one
that persuades the just This Department that the overall aim
of any specific settlement is not subject to evasion by
additional adjustments in.
Speaker 3 (07:31):
The business model.
Speaker 7 (07:32):
They'll have to be confident that the solution is one
that they can monitor and oversee effectively. I think that
there would be a willingness to discuss settlements. But a
major message that has come from the age agencies in
the US in recent years is a great deal of
skepticism about the efficacy of many settlement arrangements and doubts
about how readily you can implement them and be effective.
Speaker 5 (07:56):
In your reading of the suit itself, do you think
the JAY.
Speaker 8 (08:00):
Has a point here?
Speaker 7 (08:02):
They do have a point, and the point is one
that in a sense involves again a collection of intangible considerations.
But there's anxiety about the possibility that incumbent firms that
have a significant market position, will, through a variety of tactics,
diminish the emergence of alternative technologies and.
Speaker 3 (08:23):
New business models.
Speaker 7 (08:24):
That concern might be very much the feeling that anti
trust law failed in the last thirty years to deal
effectively with the emergence of new tech. And I believe
a state of mind and perspective that has a tight
grip on the agencies is that they're not going to
allow the permissiveness of the past to continue. And it
(08:45):
means that they're going to dig in and look carefully
at anything that appears to be an effort by an
incumbent to see that new technologies, new business approaches do
not emerge.
Speaker 6 (08:56):
This is dj action.
Speaker 4 (08:58):
We've seen FTC have a similar focus. But sometimes this
is political. In an election year, does this sort of continue.
Speaker 7 (09:07):
I'm going to give you a bit of speculation that
I could never prove in a rigorous way, but I
noticed that President Biden's opponent in many instances has been
skeptical of tech. Now that skepticism has been focused in
particular on the information services platforms that are involved in
involved in advertising, involved in social messaging.
Speaker 3 (09:29):
But it was Donald Trump's Justice.
Speaker 7 (09:31):
Department that initiated the Google search monopolization case. It was
Donald Trump's Federal Trade Commission that began the lawsuit against
Meta for its acquisition of Instagram. It could entirely be
possible that, at least for tech, given the way their
political contributions go, given his concern about the role they've
played in his own electoral process in the past, that
(09:53):
he may look at the FTC in the Department of
Justice and say, keep up the good work.
Speaker 4 (09:58):
It was a Trump as well when this was first
initiated to Apple back in twenty nineteen, William cover Chich,
we thank you so much.
Speaker 6 (10:05):
George Washington Law School, absolutely brilliant to get his take.
Speaker 4 (10:07):
Mean while coming up, Look, we're going to be chatting
to a head moderator of Reddit forum all street bets.
You know you know it, well, I's going to be
joining us find out how reddits ipo, how much the
effect to the user base there's in Bloomberg Technology.
Speaker 5 (10:34):
The fourth largest IPO of the year, Reddit climbed forty
eight percent on its first day of trading yesterday, after
pricing at the top of its marketed range, raising seven
hundred and forty eight million dollars. Let's bring in Bloombo's
Katie Ruth, who has lived and breathed reddits ipo this week.
That's true. I mean for many people, I would say
(10:54):
this went well.
Speaker 8 (10:55):
This ipo.
Speaker 6 (10:56):
So it did the first day.
Speaker 9 (10:58):
Right now it's trading down, although yes, technically it's still
above well above the IPO price, it's not really much
above where it opened yesterday. And so I think there's
two numbers to watch here. It's the thirty four dollars
where priced at the top of the range, and that's
where the insiders, you could say, the institutional investors that
have banker connections, that's where they bought. And then some
(11:19):
some of Reddit's top users were able to buy at
that price. And then there's everybody else which bought it
that forty seven dollars a share where it opened yesterday,
and right now it's trading at.
Speaker 8 (11:30):
Forty seven ish.
Speaker 9 (11:31):
So and it was actually dipped below that opening price
this morning for a little bit, so some people could
have already lost some money on Reddit. But you know,
most are making money.
Speaker 4 (11:42):
And certainly long term investors have cashed in here potentially, Katie,
I'm interested as to what this means for ongoing IPOs,
what this means more broadly, for money left on the table.
Speaker 6 (11:53):
We want IPOs to do well.
Speaker 4 (11:55):
Bankers certainly do, but the people raising the money don't
want them to go too well and feel that they
could have rais Yeah, the money left on.
Speaker 9 (12:02):
The table argument is an interesting one. It sounds like
what you're referencing is where they could have raised even
more money and had less of a pop. I think
it's too early to tell whether Reddit allowed for too
much of a pop. You know, as I noted, it's
already trading lower today, and you know, we'll see what
happens next week. But you know, it depends on what
they're optimizing for. If they if they're just optimizing for
(12:24):
raising a little bit more cash, then you want to
price it high. But you don't want to make a
bad first impression on the stock market because it could
be really hard to recover from that. And so that's
you know, the argument that the bankers will make about
why they price it to pop. They also want these insiders,
these large anchor investors to keep buying more shares you know,
(12:48):
in this IPO and ips to come, and they're not
going to do that. They're not going to take that
risk on a new listing on the first day unless
they feel like they're getting some sort of discount.
Speaker 4 (12:58):
Katie with go get some thank you so much as
we brace for more IPOs to come in the next
few weeks, I'm sure, but well, we want to get
a take.
Speaker 6 (13:06):
On how the users, those redditors are.
Speaker 4 (13:09):
Feeling about the company's IPO. They had a chance to
buy in, and of course we know the a vocal bunch.
Nor ours with us as a senior analyst and private
equity back to healthcare company. There's also been a Reddit
user for more than ten years, a moderator for the.
Speaker 6 (13:21):
Forum Wall Street Bets for.
Speaker 4 (13:22):
Nine, spending the most recent three years as a head moderator.
He joins us now to tell us more well basically
about Reddit's debut. How has Wall Street bets, How has
your community reacted?
Speaker 6 (13:33):
Have you been positive on it?
Speaker 3 (13:35):
It's really been a mixed bag.
Speaker 10 (13:36):
There's a ton of positivity but also a lot of
people excited to short byputs. But Paul and all, they're
just excited for the volatility, and that's absolutely what we're
seeing here today.
Speaker 5 (13:47):
Nor last week on the show, we reported on the
post that Reddit made itself saying we're going to do
an AMA and we will answer the questions in video format,
selecting the most up to posts. At the time that
we reported it on this program, the most upvoted post
is why are you even going public? It's not a
great vibe right now. Just give me your reaction to that.
(14:10):
I mean, it's the function of Reddit ironically pushing the
management to think again.
Speaker 10 (14:16):
Absolutely, yeah, I think this is actually a great time
for Reddit to IPOs I'm surprised. Certainly there was a
lot of turmoil over the past year, but if you
look at what came out of that from a business perspective,
it's actually been very positive. We saw with the Reddit
protests that actually people found Reddit completely indispensable. There was
so much opportunity for a competitor to take reddits place,
(14:40):
and nothing came out of it. So this just goes
to show how deeply ingrained Reddit is in the zeitgeist
and that it's here to stay.
Speaker 5 (14:48):
Nor there are many redditors and indeed moderators that have
big concerns on reddits plan to license user and platform
data to AI companies to use it to train la lens.
What's your position on it from.
Speaker 10 (15:02):
A business perspective, It's definitely a risk. We're seeing that
the FTC is also looking into this, but it is
a huge opportunity and Reddit owns something that is very
special for lllms, and that is real time user reactions
to what's going on in the world around us, and
that's something that I think no other platform has. So
(15:23):
it's a great opportunity for Reddit to make money off
of that and then turn around and invest that money
in improving the user experience.
Speaker 4 (15:30):
No, I want to ask about the evolution of moderation,
because money would say in anticipation in the IPO, reditor
really read it, really got ahead of ensuring that this
became a safer space to.
Speaker 6 (15:43):
Be able to comment. Does that stand?
Speaker 4 (15:46):
How has anything been lost in the focus of needing
to clean up the platform.
Speaker 10 (15:50):
We've definitely lost a little bit of the chaos and
grit that you would have seen on Reddit ten fifteen
years ago. And although that lose some of its charm,
I think it's more reflective of the state of the
Internet rather than Reddit as a platform itself. We're seeing
all platforms, social media platforms censor in response to government
(16:14):
regulations and laws that have been placed on hate speech
and other types of speech.
Speaker 3 (16:20):
So Reddit is actually maintaining.
Speaker 10 (16:23):
Its position as the front page of the Internet and
simply reflecting what is on the Internet through these policy changes.
Speaker 4 (16:30):
Wall streetbats was what we talked about day in, day
out in twenty twenty one through twenty twenty two name
being made around GameStop, the power that reditors had in
that moment. What do you think the powers of redditors
around the Reddit stock itself.
Speaker 10 (16:48):
It'll be interesting to see It'll be interesting to see
you when redditors feel empowered that the actions they take
on the platform can make a meaningful impact on the
stock price of Reddit itself. Like with the game Stop debacle,
we saw over a billion page views in a very
very short period of time in a month, and we
saw that continue for several months. So to think that
(17:10):
redditors now who are might be investors themselves, can have
a positive impact on the stock will simply deepen their
relationship with the company and with the platform.
Speaker 5 (17:20):
No, we just have thirty seconds for someone that has
no idea what Reddit is what's your pitch for them
to get onto the platform.
Speaker 10 (17:27):
Reddit is a city that is incredibly deep, with countless
communities to fill every need that you knew or didn't
know that you are interested in learning more about. If
you've got an intellectual curiosity that can't be satisfied, Reddit
is the place for you.
Speaker 5 (17:42):
Head moderator for and Wall Street bets on Reddit, and
I point out that moderators are volunteers to all intents
and purposes and are how great to have you on
the program.
Speaker 4 (17:59):
Time Now tech first Up mayto one's quarterly revenue, it
climbed better than expected twenty three percent. Now that's a
sign that the company is actually making some headway in
its efforts to fend off a challenge from Byte Dances
Doyen in China's meal delivery arena. Now shares in the
company are up this year after losing more than half
of their value in twenty twenty three. Plus Wawei and
a secretive chip making partner in China, Well, they file
(18:21):
patterns for a lower tech but potentially effective way to
make advanced semiconductors.
Speaker 6 (18:26):
And we're talking about self aligned quadruple patterning here or SAQP.
Speaker 4 (18:30):
Basically, it's raising the prospect that China could improve chip
production techniques despite.
Speaker 6 (18:35):
US efforts to hold its progress.
Speaker 4 (18:37):
And lastly, Tesla, we'll go chick with steck with China
here because it's reduced production at its plants over there
amid us some sluggish growth and EV sales and intense
competition in the.
Speaker 6 (18:46):
World's biggest all code auto market.
Speaker 4 (18:48):
Now the car maker has instructed employees at its Shanghai
facility to lower production of the Model Y and Model three.
That's two vehicles that Tesla actually makes over there in
China by working just five days a week instead of
usual six and a half half days.
Speaker 6 (19:00):
All of this, according to sources.
Speaker 5 (19:03):
British audience in the UK pay attention. Vodaphone and Three's
UK combination is facing a deep check by the UK
Competition Markets Authority, the CMA, the regulator. They issued a
statement Friday saying they're concerned and they don't buy the
argument from Vodafone and three that combining the two would
(19:25):
mean better deals for customers. Vodaphones London listed shares actually
at one point eight percent with a little to go,
but it's an interesting story about consolidation in that market.
Speaker 8 (19:37):
This is Bloomberg.
Speaker 6 (19:46):
Welcome back to me new MEOT technology. I'm Caroline Hid
in New.
Speaker 8 (19:48):
York and I'm Ed Ludlow in San Francisco.
Speaker 4 (19:51):
Let's talk about this whole new wave of IPO names.
Read at Asteri Labs debuting this week and just whether
or not that's going to open up the pipeline. A
little bit more broadly, eyipa Practice Co had richual Garings
here to take basically on the feel good factor right now.
Thus far these companies have come to the market and come.
Speaker 6 (20:09):
Well, does that mean suddenly the.
Speaker 4 (20:11):
Yours the other names that we've been waiting for for
a long time, I'm gonna be galvanized.
Speaker 6 (20:15):
Do you think it.
Speaker 1 (20:16):
Definitely helps the momentum for what we're expecting in the
IPO market, the pipeline that.
Speaker 11 (20:22):
We're seeing come through. As you all, we're noting.
Speaker 1 (20:25):
Though, the post IPO performance of these companies that even
the ones before them, will really help continue setting the
stage and help influence what will continue coming to market
over these next several months and throughout the remainder of
twenty four We've got.
Speaker 11 (20:39):
You know, positive momentum.
Speaker 1 (20:41):
The trends are all going in the right way, but
not without its challenges. We're in a political you know cycle,
a political election cycle this year, so you know there's
going to continue to be elements and dynamics.
Speaker 4 (20:52):
That everyone's going to have to navigate, dynamics being also
that the market is hungered for hungry for AI names.
When you're advising these companies, when that are coming to
you saying I want to navigate the quidity events, I
want to analyze the market.
Speaker 6 (21:05):
Do you think about.
Speaker 4 (21:07):
Basically where they need to be dining out on AI
for example, Well.
Speaker 1 (21:11):
A AI is certainly something drawing a lot of focus interests,
particularly from investors, and when we think about AI, I
think about it in kind.
Speaker 11 (21:20):
Of a few different buckets. You got the pure play.
Speaker 1 (21:23):
AI companies, those that are developing the technology. There is
a lot of continued interest in this area, particularly in.
Speaker 11 (21:30):
The private financing space.
Speaker 1 (21:32):
So these companies are generally getting funded and where we
start seeing a flood of you know, ideos from them
over the coming months, and ye're meeting at onesie twosies,
but they're getting the financing they need, they're developing the technology.
But then I also look at other companies and how
they're employing AI within their companies and relative.
Speaker 11 (21:52):
To their strategy. We're seeing that play out.
Speaker 1 (21:54):
We're going to continue, not without skepticism from investors, kind
of proving it to me. And you've got those kind
of in the broader ecosystem that we're seeing right now
and how they're contributing to the A to AI in
that broader ecosystem, and we're going to continue seeing those
come to market as well.
Speaker 5 (22:10):
Rachel, this is exactly what I was writing about in
my column in Tech Daily this morning, that Reddit, for example,
got its AI story right going into the IPO, you know,
the data licensing business. I think what would be interesting
to learn from you is what's more important that in
the S one process and the road show you sell
your AI story or is it more important that actually,
(22:33):
now a company like Reddit is listed, they can prove
they have an AI business, you know, after the fact
that it's actually real.
Speaker 11 (22:41):
I think both are critical for obvious reasons.
Speaker 1 (22:44):
But where we're seeing, you know, even when you're putting
that into your S one, going through your road shows,
investors asking you know, to prove it. So it's that
more it's not just about writing about the possibility and
the idea.
Speaker 11 (22:59):
But what have you done even up to this point to.
Speaker 1 (23:02):
Share with investors how you're proving this out, how you
truly have a strong plan that you're then now executing on.
And then proof will be in the putting post IPO,
how you're coming out and continuing to execute.
Speaker 11 (23:14):
And perform to back all of that up.
Speaker 1 (23:18):
And so as we continue to watch the performance of
these stocks, you know, two months from now, three months
from now so forth, they've got to continue demonstrating that
performance and stay good on the promises and commitments they made.
Speaker 5 (23:29):
Rachel, how do you assess this week, this week's IPO window.
I don't even know if we call it window versus
what we saw in September.
Speaker 1 (23:38):
You know, this is to me demonstrating, you know, we've
got investor interest around IPOs. The companies that are coming
to market right now is what we've expected. They're stilled,
they're large, they have a name, they have some history,
you know, performance history behind them as well. So the
risk profile is one of an appetite that's attracting investors.
Speaker 6 (24:00):
As they continue to.
Speaker 1 (24:01):
Perform, hopefully that starts to open up opportunity for more
the growth oriented companies to start coming to market and
really help drive some momentum and valumes over time getting
inspect to those historical norms.
Speaker 11 (24:12):
But this is it's going to be instead a steady recovery.
Speaker 1 (24:15):
We're not expecting a big, you know, balloon if you will,
or huge kind of spike. A steady recovery is what
we've continued to expect throughout twenty twenty four.
Speaker 11 (24:24):
As we continue to see the market rebound.
Speaker 4 (24:27):
I'm chure what's the motivating factor here? Med It wanted
IPO for years.
Speaker 6 (24:32):
Says twenty twenty one. It was about a liquidity event.
Speaker 4 (24:34):
For employees largely, but I'm sure time for investors to
have some money back.
Speaker 6 (24:39):
What's driving other names?
Speaker 11 (24:42):
Everyone had their facts and circumstances.
Speaker 1 (24:44):
Some's going to be you know, they're going to be
anchoring around valuations and are they getting to a valuation
that they're expecting liquidity for employees, for other founders a
lot of PE right, we're going to start seeing how
how is PE going to start driving valuume. They've been
having some companies they've been holding for quite some time.
They want to start entering back into the M and
A market. As we see rates coming down, hopefully we'll
(25:07):
see more M and A activity even more from pe.
I think that's going to start influencing some exit from
their stage as well.
Speaker 4 (25:16):
We want to thank you ey IPO Practice cohad Rachel
goering there on the IPO landscape where we just want
to stick with well companies going public none all of
them do IPOs, some of them do SPACs.
Speaker 6 (25:26):
And former President Donald Trump's.
Speaker 4 (25:28):
Media startup is likely to debut as a public company.
Speaker 6 (25:31):
In coming days. Having voted today on whether.
Speaker 4 (25:34):
Blank Check Company Digital World acquisition can proceed with taking
Trump Media and Technology Group public. It runs, of course
truth Social the platform, and it's been a long delayed
deal and seemingly has now approved. And a number of
insiders from management to sponsors and even former associates who
soone to stall or block the deal stand to pocket
millions of dollars and what have you got?
Speaker 5 (25:55):
Okay, Coming up on the program, we're going to dive
into the world of climate investing AI. What on earth
happened this week in IPOs, everything and anything that we've
spoken about this week with Initialized Capital partner Kim Mai Cutler.
Really looking forward to that conversation. Next, this has Bloom
their technology. This is the Blackwell GPU or graphics processing
(26:30):
unit in Vidia's next generation AI accelerator, and it's the
star of GtC in Vidia's annual developers conference, which has
been dubbed the Woodstock for AI.
Speaker 8 (26:40):
The B two hundred is more powerful than the H
one hundred.
Speaker 5 (26:43):
The prior generation AI accelerator that's driven in video to
be the world's third most valuable company compared to Hopper.
Blackwell offers two point five times the performance for training
large language models and five times performance for running the model,
a process known as inference. In offer Blackwell in different forms,
including is the GB two hundred super chip, two Blackwell
(27:04):
GPUs and one Grace CPU in combination. Trays and trays
of GB two hundred go into liquid called rack scale
systems like this and ship to server companies and cloud
providers for their data centers. It's a market that Nvidia's
CEO says will start at two hundred and fifty billion
dollars annually and grow from there. The technology is capable
of processing AI models with one trillion parameters. GtC crowds
(27:29):
literally circled around the single demo server rak in droves.
Speaker 8 (27:33):
The real thing start shipping in late twenty twenty four, so.
Speaker 5 (27:39):
Among everything else, GtC ended last night, Caro, and you
know it was all about bow down to Blackwell.
Speaker 8 (27:45):
And the deity.
Speaker 5 (27:46):
Whether you're an AI startup founder or you are ADEL
or an infrastructure company, bow down to Jensen Wang and
in that might sound extreme, but trust me, they're on
the ground.
Speaker 3 (27:57):
It was true.
Speaker 4 (27:58):
And share prices really read benefit as well, not so
much of Nvidio, but sort of those that he anointed
the synopsis of this world, you say, Dell as well,
some of these companies managing to push on higher because
we are starting to see how they're able to tap
into this ecosystem that basically is the driving force from
an infrastructure perspective of everything that we now talk from
a value perspective in well public.
Speaker 6 (28:20):
And private markets.
Speaker 5 (28:22):
And as we've been saying, the show, get the AI
story right, because AI was also a big part of
the story. Yesterday, for Reddits public listing Day, Initialized Capitals
celebrated the IPO of its portfolio company, which is banking
on licensing its users data to builders of large language
models to fuel reddits growth. Let's bringing Initialized Capital partner
(28:43):
k in my cutler for more.
Speaker 8 (28:44):
In today's VC Spotlight.
Speaker 5 (28:47):
I wrote in my column today Reddit got the AI story, right,
I just thought it was really interesting that they went
there with that.
Speaker 8 (28:56):
What did you make of it?
Speaker 12 (28:57):
I mean, I think it's a tremendous day or the
whole team there for Steve, for Alexis. You know, that
company in particular has a long history and close ties
obviously with Sam Altman who runs openings, and so I
think that relationship over the last decade and more really
benefited their ability to ride this wave and rend itself
(29:19):
as an incredible consumer internet property. I mean, I'm a
user multiple times a day every day. I mean the
wealth of information that I have in all the different
like subcommunities, and the way that people talk honestly and
openly and freely about.
Speaker 6 (29:32):
What they think.
Speaker 12 (29:33):
You know, it's just an incredible data source and training set.
Speaker 5 (29:36):
So what I find so interesting, particularly in the context
of where Initialized will deploy capital, right, the types of
startups that you'd invest in is redd It's an example
of where you don't need to be a builder of
large language models or an infrastructure play to be a
participant in what's happening in AI. Do you have any
parallel examples of companies you think will benefit from the
(29:57):
infrastructure investment that's happening.
Speaker 12 (30:00):
I think for us, you know, we've long done many,
many different deals that have you know, very specific applications
to different workflows and different industries. So for example, you know,
you could think about the healthcare use case. We have
a company called glass Health that supports medical professionals and diagnoses.
We have another company called Parta that you know serves
(30:20):
as an AI copilot for financial compliance. And so there's
all these different specific industries with specific like legal requirements,
workflows and ways that people work that will need you know,
very very honed and refined applications of these foundational.
Speaker 6 (30:36):
Models and kill.
Speaker 4 (30:38):
It's a long way coming for some of these checks
that you've made into the Glass Health that you mentioned,
pano arenas, some of these other AI adjacent names that
you've invested in.
Speaker 6 (30:48):
How are you thinking about exit strategy?
Speaker 1 (30:50):
Though?
Speaker 4 (30:50):
Longer term, what's been so interesting about this week was
also the Microsoft basically acqua hire of Inflection Stuff assum
when originally of DeepMind go Mean to be the head
of consumer AI from Microsoft. It feels as though big
tech juggernals are partnering in.
Speaker 6 (31:05):
More and more innovative ways to some of the larger
language model companies. But how cool does that go for
the entire ecosystem here?
Speaker 12 (31:13):
Yeah, I mean, I think some of the developments that
we've seen this week are reflection of consolidation in players
in the foundational market, the foundational model market. So obviously
they're there are companies that are far at a way
you know, have tremendous you know, revenue you know, like
revenue run rates and thinking like Shatgypt and Nanthropic, and
(31:34):
then companies that aren't quite at that level or don't
have that same level of revenue growth are having to
make different decisions about you know, what they need to
do given the cost of compute and the cost of
going forward. You know, I think, you know, as a
seat stage investor, we have companies that we're working with
for you know, we might be working with them for
(31:54):
five to ten ten years before we go you know public.
And you know, if I look at the early you know,
some of the earlier friends, our previous IPOs like Instacurrent,
Coybats have also had you know, a very positive momentum
over the last six six months, two a year. And
then going forward, we're going to have companies that perhaps
(32:15):
you and I will be talking about in five, seven
or ten years.
Speaker 4 (32:18):
What's been interesting this week in the context of AI,
whether it's US China relations, but there's also a context
more broadly of where the government plays with this.
Speaker 6 (32:28):
We had or cause, the big announcement from.
Speaker 4 (32:30):
Intel getting more subsidies to be able to be building
here in the United States, and I know that's something
that you're thinking a lot about.
Speaker 6 (32:36):
In the context of climate.
Speaker 4 (32:37):
Technology as well, we have money being pushed from the
EV perspective this week, regulation being pushed from an EV
perspective to really perhaps enhance electric vehicle manufacturing here in
the US. Can I when you're thinking about the opportunity
IRA or another way of investing in climate tech, does
that stick.
Speaker 8 (32:57):
Absolutely?
Speaker 12 (32:57):
I mean, you know, the government, the IRA has provided
a number of you know, carrots and sticks, predominantly carrots
that have tremendously expanded the market for some of our companies. So,
for example, having more punitive measures around methane emissions is
a is a real benefit to one of our company's, Orbio,
which is using satellite imagery to really pinpoint methane leaks
(33:21):
from specific facilities. You know, the incentives and the IRA
around you know, revenue or purchase. Government purchases of carbon
removal are also helping to mature that market. And we
have another company in southern California from a former SpaceX
engineer called Clarity that is doing carbon dioxide removal at uh,
(33:42):
you know, with lower energy intensity and usage and costs.
Speaker 5 (33:45):
I'm sure because right at the top of your blog
post which I read this morning, you were talking about
the Chips Act.
Speaker 8 (33:51):
Yeah, at lower down at the early stage. Is there
any benefit felt by the Chips Act in terms of
inflation Reduction Act?
Speaker 1 (33:58):
Right?
Speaker 12 (33:58):
Inflation reduction? That's right, I mean, there's there's there's obviously
benefits from both. But like if we're talking about you know,
a long term investment in you know, the United States
ability around manufacturing and deep tech, I think that's you know,
bringing in a lot of like tax rep you know,
tax credits and tax incentives around building facilities here in
(34:20):
this country. So for example, you know, to to really
get carbon removal to the next stage, we're going to
have to see facilities all over you know, the United States,
particularly in you know, in the Southwest where Clarity is
looking to do its first production facility and its first
facility as well. And that's going to create a tremendous
amount of jobs for all kinds of Americans.
Speaker 5 (34:40):
Innationalist capital partner, can I cut look great to have
you here on set in San Francisco.
Speaker 8 (34:44):
Thank you.
Speaker 3 (34:53):
I love playing just there.
Speaker 11 (34:54):
So this is one of the things that we all
have enabled me to do something that I wasn't able to.
Speaker 12 (35:00):
Really do much the last few years, especially not like this.
Speaker 3 (35:06):
I had to use like a mouth stick and suffer.
Now it's well, it's all being done with my brain.
Speaker 4 (35:12):
Just part of a live stream with Neuralink's first brain
implant patient, showing a quadriplegic man who was able to
play video games and online.
Speaker 6 (35:21):
Chess using just his mind.
Speaker 4 (35:22):
Neuralink, of course, is a brain technology startup founded by
Elon musk Is. Implant allows a patient to use their.
Speaker 6 (35:28):
Thoughts to control a computer.
Speaker 7 (35:31):
Ed.
Speaker 5 (35:32):
Bitcoin has peeled back more than ten percent from its
all time high and maybe headed for one of its
worst weeks of twenty twenty four. This is the appetite
the spot Bitcoin ETF seems to be slowing down. Big
Go CEO Mike Belshe joins us, Now that was the intro.
What do you think is happening right now? With Bitcoin.
Speaker 13 (35:50):
Well, usually I do not like to predict price, but
I think we're at a very very good time. Of course,
there's some consolidation, as saying, I guess in the space
that hey, if you're not ready for my twenty percent drops,
you're certainly not ready for my six hundred percent increases.
Speaker 2 (36:04):
But overall, what we're seeing some consolidation.
Speaker 13 (36:06):
The ETFs just launched, we've seen tremendous run up in
a very short period of time. A little bit of
pullback is happening, but you know, all of the macro
climate remains extremely bullish for bitcoin, primarily due to what
people know about the long term just what we care
about most at bitco, which is look term macro looks
like we're still going to be very solid with having
(36:27):
a static supply of bitcoin being something that you can
count on that doesn't get eroded. And of course, you
know fiat currencies continuing to do massive changes with debt
and deficits and no sign of change for that front.
Speaker 3 (36:41):
Bitcoin.
Speaker 4 (36:42):
We've got the Harbing coming up as well, potentially another
underpinning of price. But who's been getting into these ETFs
and we've been able.
Speaker 6 (36:48):
To manage flow his mine.
Speaker 2 (36:49):
We have a little bit.
Speaker 13 (36:51):
Actually, so far, I think it's been mostly the smaller
ticket sizes. So remember, institutions move pretty slowly, pretty glacially. Frankly,
I think we've seen a wave of retail here over
the last two and a half months. I think it's
getting a little bit bigger. But the institutions, you know,
we've seen some smaller hedge funds come in, Larger hedge
funds will come in. Pension funds are coming, endowments are
(37:11):
already here. So now that we have an ETF available,
which is the distribution channel, which makes it super easy
for everybody to participate. It takes a little bit of
time to go through investment committees, but I think that
we're starting to see that run up happen now all
through the summer at rhymes.
Speaker 2 (37:26):
So you should say it eightyk by May.
Speaker 8 (37:29):
In the moment the calendar its and the harving, what happens?
Do you think?
Speaker 3 (37:34):
So?
Speaker 13 (37:34):
The having is an interesting pattern that people look at,
but I think really the most interesting part is the
long term meaning of the having. So bitcoin has a
monetary policy which was set in motion back in two
thousand and nine, and it has remained completely unchanged since
that time. It's the longest standing unchanged monetary policy in
the history of mankind, and this having is a demonstration
(37:57):
that bitcoin has a solid commitment, unchangeable commitment to that policy,
which we'll keep going. So with the having the supply
decreases on a block by block basis, which means that
we see a lower rate of inflation. Some measure this
stock to flow and other measurements of how you compare
that to other assets?
Speaker 7 (38:13):
Right?
Speaker 2 (38:13):
How they but bitcoins in a very good stead is one.
Speaker 13 (38:16):
Of the most static supply assets on the planet, him
will she It's been great to catch up with you.
Speaker 4 (38:22):
Thank you so much bitco ceo. As we have seen,
of course, one of the worst weeks for bitcoin this year.
That does it for this though edition of BlueBag Technology.
Speaker 5 (38:30):
Yet what a week has been. What an ends of
the week? Check out the podcast. So many of you
are listening to the podcast. The platforms are Apple, Spotify,
iHeart and of course we publish to all of our
own platforms here at Bloomberg from San Francisco and New
York City.
Speaker 8 (38:46):
This is Bloomberg Technology
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