Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
From the heart of where innovation, money and power collide
in Silicon Valley and beyond. This is Bloomberg Technology with
Caroline Hyde and.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
Ed Lovelung.
Speaker 3 (00:26):
Live from New York and San Francisco. This is Bromberg Technology.
We continue to cover the aftermath of President Donald Trump's
sweeping touse, with stocks rebounding on hopes of trade deals
following the biggest route in five years. I focus in
on a Nazda one hundred that is up three and
a half percent. Only three stocks are generally in the
(00:47):
red on the entirety of the benchmark, as there.
Speaker 2 (00:50):
Are hopes on South Korea deals, Japanese deals.
Speaker 4 (00:52):
Ed.
Speaker 2 (00:52):
What's from the micro perspective.
Speaker 5 (00:54):
Yeah, two of the biggest technology names that are in
the headlines, and that's Tesla and Micron. Tesla is based
around a feud between Elon Musk and Peter Navarro. Navarro
commenting on television that Tesla is not a car manufacturer,
it's a car assembler, which prompted e'd On Musk to
call him a moron quote and explain that actually most
(01:15):
of Tesla's components in the car itself are filled with
items originating from the US. The stock at session highs
whether that's direct who knows Micron Reuter's reporting that Micron's
passing on the cost of tariffs to customers at its
supply base. The market cheered that no comment or official
word from Micro, and yet they have an answer, Mike call.
(01:36):
But interesting in the market's context.
Speaker 3 (01:38):
From a micro perspective to the macro mold broadly aired
trade headlines. They're continuing to drive the markets, of course,
with optimism building for trade deals with South Korea, with Japan,
but China not backing down.
Speaker 2 (01:50):
On President Trump's Pwerff threats.
Speaker 3 (01:51):
Vowing to quote fight to the end as speak it
all down. Blombergs, Mike Shepherd is with us very different tactics.
Talk through the latest in terms of South Korea.
Speaker 6 (02:00):
Well, with South Korea, they seem to be following in
the steps of Japan and trying to open up very
quickly negotiations with Washington on some kind of deal that
would ameliorate or eliminate altogether the reciprocal tariffs that are
about to take effect at midnight tonight, and those tariffs,
of course, would be damaging to economies around the world
(02:21):
and especially to the trade relationships between these two tech
centers Japan and South Korea that are so important as
well to Silicon Valley.
Speaker 7 (02:30):
Now the mood.
Speaker 6 (02:30):
Music is leading some to think what would happen with China?
Is China ready to also somehow approach President Donald Trump?
And the President indicated in his truth social post that
he was waiting for a call from Beijing. But the
move music, as you indicated, is a little bit different.
In China, They're sending mixed signals. On the one hand,
they are pointing to a willingness to talk to actually
(02:53):
have this conversation about trade, but at the same time
they say that they are willing to fight to the end.
Speaker 7 (02:58):
And this is in response to.
Speaker 6 (02:59):
President Donald Trump's threat to impose even more teriffs on
China if Beijing follows through with its pledge to keep
its retaliatory teriffs in place.
Speaker 5 (03:10):
Mike, I'm trying to keep this deeply focused on the
technology sector, right, and it's hard to piece it together.
Why are the career headlines important? One reason Career sends
ten billion dollars worth of chips to the US every year.
Eighty percent of the memory saw the Micron headlines from Reuter's.
That's one part. The other is that China's not moving right,
and that was the speculation of the last twenty four hours.
How do they react? What happened overnight was really really severe.
(03:33):
Just recap the wording that the Chinese issued.
Speaker 6 (03:38):
Well, when we think about the Chinese, they were talking
about how they would fight to the end, and that
really sent a signal to the markets and to investors
in even to companies that we could be in this
for the long haul.
Speaker 7 (03:51):
And if your Apple with.
Speaker 6 (03:52):
So much production, for example, eighty percent of iPhones are
still made in China. Even as Apple has tried to
diversify its production lines, it has been much tougher.
Speaker 7 (04:01):
So the signs of a far perhaps.
Speaker 6 (04:04):
With Saul and with Tokyo, do lend some optimism, especially
for producers of products. You think of Sony, you think
of sk Heinex, you think of Tokyo Electron and some
of the more sophisticated chip making equipment that they produce.
All of these things are in play, but China is
really the big target here just because of the size
of the economy and the amount of trade that the
(04:26):
US does with China.
Speaker 5 (04:29):
Bloombo's Mike Shepherd, it's Apple exactly where we want to go.
Next shares of Apple rebounding in the session after what
was basically three day biggest three day drop since the
two thousands. President Trump's tariff frets sending customers to the stores.
There's panic buying of iPhones ahead of speculated but potential
price increases. Joining us, Bloomberg Intelligences and arag Rana. Your
(04:51):
job is to take data, your own data, third party data,
look at the case best, worst case scenario. What do
you do with data or reporting that there's panic buying
of iPhones, particularly in this country.
Speaker 8 (05:08):
Yeah, but the thing is that may help, you know,
let's say, minor earnings in this upcoming quarter, but it
doesn't take away the big risk Apple has on procuring
more phones for down the road when the next iPhone
cycle comes in, when the December quarter comes in. I mean,
there is a lot at stake right now, especially when
it comes to the size of the tariffs that may
(05:30):
hit China.
Speaker 3 (05:32):
That's so important that ultimately may first when we get
their fiscal second quarter earnings unlikely to show this.
Speaker 2 (05:37):
It's not going to show up until their fiscal third quarter.
Speaker 3 (05:40):
And meanwhile, they try to navigate not current inventory but
future supply side, maybe coming more from India.
Speaker 2 (05:47):
Where is that going to help them on the margin front?
How much can they rely on that?
Speaker 9 (05:51):
An arat see, they can bring some phones from India,
but you know there are a large portion of the
pro models. India is getting a hit with tariffs. Also,
we don't know if somebody finds out that, okay, they
are circumventing and trying to get phones from India, we
won't have an additional tariffs on that. So there is
a there's a lot going on right now and then
(06:12):
almost on a daily basis, we hear about some new
tariffs being slapped and but we can remember at the
end of the day it's beIN brought. The whole target
of that is to try to open more factories in
the US unless there is some negotiation between the two countries.
So I don't think Apple escapes this anytime in the
near term.
Speaker 3 (06:30):
Andra Agrana putting it plainly, we thank you from Bloomberg
Intelligence for more on tech markets be brought out from
just Apple to across the board.
Speaker 2 (06:38):
Dip buy is emerging.
Speaker 3 (06:39):
Jay Jacobs is with us black Rock US head of
Thematic and active ETF. Boy, have we seen some inflows
and outflows? Jay, break it down what today looks like
versus the last couple of trading days.
Speaker 10 (06:51):
We're seeing a bit of a relief rally here in
very strong volumes and corners of the market where I
think people have been looking for buying opportunities. If you
look at areas like artificial intelligence, look at areas like
small caps, a lot of investors have been hunting for
deals in these areas, and now that they're off you know, ten, fifteen,
twenty percent, it represents a really attractive entry point for
long term investors. So we're seeing people get very granular
(07:13):
about finding targeted opportunities for these lower evaluations here.
Speaker 3 (07:17):
And they therefore think that the valuation erosion that we've
seen in some of these AI names, some of the
chip socks in particular, that they're at the right buying
price right now.
Speaker 10 (07:26):
Jay, Well, there's certainly at contracted valuations here. And what
we've been hearing from clients for a while is, you know,
they love the AI. They see the structural disruption, they
see the massive total addressable market of artificial intelligence. It
was really just a question of valuations. Was a scenario
that was a little too hype, to little too inflated
(07:46):
by the markets. Now that you're seeing this price is
basically twenty percent off since the beginning of the year.
Speaker 11 (07:51):
Those concerns are gone.
Speaker 10 (07:53):
And yes, maybe the landscape looks a little bit different,
but if you still zoom out and look ten years ahead,
there's a ton of conviction and artificial intelligent GIN center
these valuations.
Speaker 11 (08:01):
It's hard to pass over.
Speaker 5 (08:03):
Jay, if the trade conflict goes on indefinitely. Is there
a corner specific area of the technology industry where you
do want to boost your exposure?
Speaker 10 (08:15):
There is you know, we actually brought out a strategy
a couple of years ago very focused on this, which
is i et c's or US Tech focused ETF, and
it's specifically looking to remove geopolitics from technology stocks. The
tech sector has over sixty percent of its revenue coming
from overseas, very globally integrated supply chains, and if you
can really isolate companies that hire, build and sell in
(08:35):
the United States, you can still get that tech exposure,
that tech growth.
Speaker 11 (08:39):
But try to limit.
Speaker 10 (08:42):
And so and limits on the impact of supply chains.
Speaker 5 (08:45):
Jay, what's in it? What names are we talking about?
What specific technologies, specific supply chains do you want to
go into.
Speaker 10 (08:52):
Well, if you look at the portfolio today, it's actually
underweighting several of the mag seven stocks that make up
such a top heavy amount of the tech sector as
well the communications sector. You know, a lot of those
stocks are still very globally integrated, have a lot of
sales overseas. It's looking more domestically sometimes at e commerce
companies that do a lot of buying and selling within
the United States, some AI related companies that are doing
(09:14):
a lot of buying and selling in the United States.
But it's really kind of rewaiting the tech sector, and
that top ten looks very different in a fund like
ITTC than just kind of the broad tech sector.
Speaker 3 (09:24):
Jay, how are you currently discussing with those of that
allocating towards your funds the long term versus short term?
How many are wanting to commit at this moment if
they are worried about what the next headline seems to
be bringing.
Speaker 10 (09:40):
It's really about getting granular and taking that long term view.
You know, we have seen a lot of investors again
are really kind of looking for what's the targeted exposure.
Speaker 11 (09:48):
That they have the highest conviction in over the next five.
Speaker 10 (09:51):
To ten years, and look, you get compensated for taking
equity risk, and we're seeing equity risk play out in
the markets today. So if you could take that long
term view, get granular on the themes artificial intelligence that
people believe in over the long term, we believe they
should be rewarded over over time. So you know, in
many ways it's opportunity hunting, but it's also you know,
behavior and behavior of touching around being invested and staying
(10:13):
invested during turbulent times.
Speaker 5 (10:16):
It's important to remind oneself that all of the things
we've been spending the last two years talking about haven't
ended or gone away. The AI infrastructure build out, all
of the forecasts a multi year I guess fit for
you when you think about construction and you think about clients,
it's your conviction on whether the trajectory we were on
in twenty twenty four, particularly around AI infrastructure data center continues.
(10:40):
Do you feel that way.
Speaker 11 (10:42):
I don't think there's a major shift here.
Speaker 10 (10:43):
You know, tech companies are very good at planning for
the long term around these very very you know, capital
intensive buildouts, and so if you're building a data center today,
it's because you believe.
Speaker 11 (10:52):
In AI three to five years from now.
Speaker 10 (10:54):
And I think What's different about this time around is
you have tech companies that are flush with cash. They
continue to bring in new cash through free cash flow,
and they see a huge potential market in artificial intelligence.
So they're excited to invest in this space. They're excited
to put their capital work, and they're planning for the future.
(11:15):
You said the word cash three times though, interesting data center,
memory chips. You guys interested in that market. We are,
So we look at the entire AI technology stack for opportunities,
and you know, you could kind of look at the
bottom of that tech stack, starting with what is the
real estate that is really hosting the digital.
Speaker 11 (11:34):
Infrastructure required for artificial intelligence.
Speaker 10 (11:36):
On top of that are a lot of the semiconductor companies,
not just GPUs, but memory rievers. We really like that
digital infrastructure area right now because that's where a lot
of revenue is being channeled in artificial intelligence for the
next couple of years as we see a build.
Speaker 11 (11:49):
Out of AI.
Speaker 5 (11:51):
Right, J Jacobs of black Rock, Really great to have
you back on the program. Thank you very much. Now
coming up, former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers joins us
to talk if and why he expects more turbut it's
a key conversation coming up here. This is Bloomberg Technology.
Speaker 4 (12:12):
Our Bloomberg audience is worldwide. I'm David Weston and I'm
joined now by the former US treasure Sectory Larry Summers
of Harvard. Larry, thank you for being back with us.
When we talked just a week ago on Wednesday, the
day of the announced of the tariffs, there was a
lot yet to be determined. The markets have been through
an amazing amount of volatility since then. Three down days,
they're sharply up today. You've been quite explicitly critical of
(12:35):
what President Trump has announced here. Do you feel better
today because the markets are coming back?
Speaker 5 (12:42):
Sure?
Speaker 12 (12:43):
I feel better anytime instability seems to be calming.
Speaker 5 (12:49):
But be not confused.
Speaker 12 (12:51):
There is only one reason why instability is being reduced,
and that is there's a growing hope in markets that
a larger part of these policies are going to prove
transitory and reversible. This does not reflect any kind of
(13:13):
market endorsement of the approach that the President has followed. Rather,
it reflects a judgment that the president might recognize the
reality that markets are telling him about, that many of
his advisors are telling him about that corporate CEOs across
the country are articulating that this kind of wholesale tariff
(13:38):
of policy is simply bad for economic performance. We're seeing
some signs that the administration may recognize that.
Speaker 4 (13:49):
We're seeing signs. But do we have a better sense
of the goals in the process today than we got
from the Rose Garden last Wednesday.
Speaker 12 (14:00):
I don't think so. I think this is fundamentally a
improvisational effort. You could tell that when you knew that
there was a policy based on tariff reciprocity that didn't
use any data on the tariffs of other countries in
figuring out how to reciprocate. You could tell that from
(14:25):
the blatant contradictions between what presidential Advisor Navarro was saying
and Presidential advisor Treasury Secretary Scott Bessen was saying. You
could tell that from the degree of division between close
(14:45):
outside advisor Elon Musk and many members of the president's
economic team. This is a policy, it's a hugely consequential policy,
but by all aheerances, it's being improvised on a daily basis,
and that's creating huge uncertainty. But it's only uncertain There's
(15:10):
only uncertainty if things go in both directions, and today
happened to be a day when things moved in a
positive direction.
Speaker 5 (15:20):
I hope that the moves to.
Speaker 12 (15:23):
Back off these policies can continue, but we'll have to see.
I suspect we're going to have volatile markets for some
time to come, and no one can know, but my
judgment is that I'd be surprised if the bottom is
yet in with respect to this phase and markets.
Speaker 4 (15:51):
How bad could it get?
Speaker 7 (15:54):
Oh, I think the.
Speaker 5 (15:56):
Likelihood.
Speaker 12 (15:57):
I think it's more likely than not that we're going
to have a recession. And in the context of a recession,
we'll see an extra two million people be unemployed. We'll
see losses in household income that are five thousand dollars
(16:20):
a family or more. We are very likely, in the
context of a recession, to see markets reach levels significantly
below their current levels. So I think we could be
looking for fairly serious economic problems. And I think it
(16:43):
will cash the shadow forward, because if we have a recession,
the budget deficit will go up, the accumulated debt that
we have to deal with will go up. They'll be
financial distress that will affect higher risk companies, so higher
risk countries in the global economy. But David, there's a
(17:08):
central thing to understand about this moment of economic and
financial difficulty.
Speaker 5 (17:16):
To borrow a.
Speaker 12 (17:17):
Word from the doctors, it is our first iatrogenic recession,
our first diatrogenic financial crisis. Iatrogenic illness is when you
go into the hospital and you catch an infection there.
It's when the people whose job it is to make
(17:38):
things better are the active agents of making things worse.
And iatrogenic illness, staff, infections and alike in hospitals is
a major preoccupation for doctors. This is an iatrogenic economic challenge.
(18:00):
Is nothing in the outside world that is causing this challenge.
It is induced by the words and deeds of President
Trump and his administration. The good news about that is
it could be resolved with words and deeds of President
(18:22):
Trump if they backed off these policy errors. I think
there would be a substantial resumption of normality. But as
long as a hospital maintains unsanitary conditions, its patients get
infections when they enter, and as long as these policies
(18:44):
are being pursued, we're going to see substantial volatility and markets,
substantial recession risk, substantial damage to middle class families.
Speaker 4 (18:57):
So, just to follow up on that, is there any
remedy for the patient other than for the chief doctor
that is President Trump to back off what you just
described as policy errors? Is there anybody else who can
save us?
Speaker 12 (19:11):
Look, depending on what happens with other countries and how
they handle their diplomacy, it may be easier or harder
for him to back off these policies. Depending upon how
the business community responds. There may be more or less
(19:33):
ability to create an environment where there's a backing off
of these policies. But there's nothing complicated about this. You
impose huge tax increases on households in an uncertainty creating
(19:57):
way that's also damaging to established business patterns, and the
economy turns downwards. There's nothing subtle or sophisticated about this.
This is introductory economics. It's the kind of question that
(20:18):
could have been on an introductory economics exam for decades.
Suppose the president of the United States decides suddenly to
impose a massive tariff tax increase on products from all
over the world. What will happen to the economy? And
(20:43):
any b student will know that the answer to that
is that it's a supply shock that raises prices and
raises unemployment as well and makes the economy less efficient
and substantially to uncertainty. This isn't some sophisticated, complicated thing
(21:12):
to analyze.
Speaker 4 (21:14):
Larry, thank you so much for being back on I
really appreciate that is former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers
of Harvard back to you.
Speaker 5 (21:21):
We thank you, David weston technology shares literally just touching
session lows in the last couple of seconds, and now's
that one hundred down up now sorry two and a
half percent. We're also seeing some current downward pressure. Bitcoins
being around seventy eight thousand US dollars per token over
the last three or four days. Remember it traded over
the weekend. There is more buoyancy. We are rebounding, but
(21:43):
there are many, many more tariff and trade related headlines
to digest. Don't go anywhere, We'll be right back. This
is Bloomberg Technology.
Speaker 3 (22:03):
Welcome back to Bluemberg Technology and Caroine hide in New
York and.
Speaker 5 (22:06):
I met Ladlow in San Francisco. Some markets character, yeah, let's.
Speaker 3 (22:09):
Check in on them because we're coming off of our
highs then as at one hundred, though still clinging to
two and a half percentage point gain. We're seeing very
few stocks in the red today as people start to
buy this dip and hope that more trade deals might
come South Korea, Japan and the mix.
Speaker 2 (22:21):
Move on and have a look at a little chip
stocks that I want to shine a light on because
deals are actually getting done.
Speaker 3 (22:26):
Marvelle's selling is auto related part of the business to
Infini in the German company. We're up six point eight
percent on a two and a half billion dollar deal.
Broadcom buying back its shares steep discount after the recent
sell off six point seven percent high as they say
they're going to be purchasing some ten billion dollars a
Micron interestingly reports coming that it is looking to pass
on some of those.
Speaker 2 (22:45):
Tariff costs to customers.
Speaker 3 (22:48):
It's up too and a half percent, but let's dwell
on another chip company. It also makes phones and plenty
of other things. Samsung shares climbed over in London trading
after South Korean tech giant reported better than expect to.
Speaker 2 (22:59):
Pull in results for the fiscal first quarter.
Speaker 3 (23:02):
It also comes, of course, as President Trump, so the
prospects for a trade deal with Saul were looking good.
Let's dig into it. Peter Elstrom is here with us
still in New York. Let's go to the earnings first.
The fundamentals looking good for memory in particular.
Speaker 7 (23:15):
Yeah, that's right.
Speaker 13 (23:16):
So Samsung reports its preliminary earnings right after the quarter closes.
We'll get more detail later on, but at least the
preliminary numbers were very good. Revenue was up ten percent,
their operating profit was four point four billion dollars, well
ahead of what analysts had anticipated. There were a couple
things playing into the results here. First of all, d RAM,
the legacy d RAM business is taking off quite a bit,
(23:37):
and they have a new Galaxy smartphone out there that's
doing quite well at this point. So Samsung, at least
at this point, is showing some progress. We know that
they are well behind in terms of AI memory chips.
They're trying to play ketchup with s k Heinex. They
didn't give any detail on that today, but we may
get it later on in the month.
Speaker 5 (23:54):
The memory market's very interesting in how some Sung plays
it right, particularly when it relates to China, because they
are that they are able to currently serve customers in
China until the US titans export restrictions.
Speaker 13 (24:07):
Just go with that with US, Peter right, Well, the
US administrations first to buy. The administration now that Trump
administration has been quite concerned about some of these chips
that are going into China being sold into China. In
Vidia chips of course is sort of the top of
the list there, but also the high end memory chips
are a concern for them. So es Kehinix makes the
high bandwidth memory chips, the HBM chips that are going
(24:30):
into China. They have been affected by this. Samsung could
also get affected by this in the future.
Speaker 7 (24:35):
And the goal the administration.
Speaker 13 (24:37):
Is trying to cut off some of these AI capabilities
that China is trying to build. In the meantime, of course,
those domestic players are competing and they're trying to gain
some groundback China. Samsung in particular has been struggling because
they do have customers in China they want to be
able to sell to. But most importantly for them, they
want to get verified by Invidia so that they can
sell the HBM chips that Nvidia needs for their AI capabilities.
Speaker 5 (25:01):
Bloombogs Peter Elstrom, thank you very much. Let's get more
on how technology investors are reacting to all of the
market turbulance. Beth Kindig, lead tech analyst that Io Fund,
joins us now and BEV really grateful to have you
on the show. I enjoy the kind of breadth of
your commentary on x Actually some of it tariff and
markets focused. A lot of it actually the underlying technology.
But given the markets that we find ourselves in right now,
(25:24):
what's your latest thinking on the technology sector and how
you're going to play the uncertainty of a trade war.
Speaker 14 (25:32):
Yeah, Look, nobody holding stocks right now is comfortable, especially
tech investors. Tech will overweight impact from tariffs. Who whether's
the electronics, the data center equipment. We're talking hundreds of
billions and imports every year that could be impacted. Ultimately, though,
the market can top on good news and it can
(25:52):
bottom on bad news. Meaning we're seeing SMH Semiconductor at
ETF up five percent despite the threat of up to
one hundred percent or higher tariffs in China not confirmed,
but we've seen some activity over the weekend in that regard.
What that means is we are positioned for a bounce.
We think that we're in.
Speaker 15 (26:14):
Extreme over sold conditions.
Speaker 14 (26:16):
If you look at the sentiment reading retail has almost
never been so bearished. It's retail is more bearished than
COVID and more barrished in two thousand and nine. What
that means is the market is over sold. We are
positioned for a bounce, and that bounce may or.
Speaker 2 (26:33):
May not.
Speaker 15 (26:35):
Continue onward.
Speaker 14 (26:36):
Meeting, we still remain cautious even with position for a bounce.
Speaker 5 (26:41):
So forgive me, Beth, Have we or have we not
hit the bottom in tech?
Speaker 14 (26:46):
We have unlikely, It is not likely we've hit the
bottom through all of the damage that was done last
week and the damage that we could see this year.
Speaker 3 (26:56):
So, Beth, we tend to you when iofund has performed
most benchmarks for the last couple of years, and indeed
a lot of the other tech focused funds, do you
make the most of these valuations, just go very focused
on individual names and just withstand the volatility, or do
you wait for a better outcome?
Speaker 2 (27:16):
Do you wait for more clarity from president?
Speaker 15 (27:22):
It's a little bit of both. We layered in on
Friday and Monday.
Speaker 14 (27:25):
The reason is we it's clear to us probability favors
that bounce. That bounce is very important for a tech
investor because of the damage that was done. You have
to capture that bounce if you're going to compete on
an annual basis like my firm, and therefore capturing that
balance is key.
Speaker 15 (27:45):
De Risking on a bounce rather.
Speaker 14 (27:48):
Than during capitulation is everything to a tech investor being
very strategic, So de risking on that bounce is key
to the performance this year.
Speaker 3 (27:59):
It's interesting Besson close Treasure Sectory has time and time
again said this isn't a MAGA problem, this is a
MAG seven problem. Then, as that peaked back in February,
this is actually about deep seek and to that point,
we've seen pressure on chip stocks running into this tariff crisis.
We were worried about an AI infrastructure bubble. How much
have you been paying credence to that or was the
(28:19):
market getting that wrong too?
Speaker 15 (28:23):
It is a MAG seven problem.
Speaker 14 (28:25):
We hold very few MAG seven stocks because of the outside.
Speaker 15 (28:30):
Spending on cap X.
Speaker 14 (28:32):
You have to think about is the schedules for depreciation
on servers is that even accurate? Is it really going
to be a five to six year depreciation schedule?
Speaker 15 (28:41):
That matters because if it's not, and it's it's.
Speaker 14 (28:44):
More brief due to these blackwall systems coming out, and
then Blackwell Ultra and then Reuben. You know, we can
see more effects on the bottom line, meaning they're the customers.
That is not typically the way the Mag seven was constructed,
and that piece is important to understand. There's a shift
in how big tech was the producer, but now it's
(29:07):
the customer.
Speaker 5 (29:08):
I saw you say on X the other day that
Ai needs compute and when it comes to compute and
video is the gold standard. So if you don't hold
many Mag seven names, do you hold in Vidia? How
do you see Nvidia's ability to continue its trajectory in
this environment?
Speaker 15 (29:26):
In Vidia is the exception.
Speaker 14 (29:27):
Video is the beneficiary from all of this CAPEX very
low China exposure. There's a seventy conductor exemption to the tariffs.
Speaker 15 (29:38):
Of course there would still be there would still.
Speaker 14 (29:40):
Be some impact, but by far the safest stock in
the market today is in Vidia.
Speaker 3 (29:46):
Currently trading more than five percent higher. Beth Kinnig, great
to have you on the show, lead tech analyst and
the Iofund.
Speaker 2 (29:52):
We thank you.
Speaker 3 (30:01):
We have some breaking news for you at the moment,
and this time it's not on tariffs, but we understand
that hackers have indeed been spying on one hundred bank
regulators emails for over a year.
Speaker 2 (30:14):
Ed, we're going to be delving into the details.
Speaker 3 (30:16):
I know you've got the story in front of you
at the moment, But hackers spying on one hundred bank regulators'
emails for over a year, just showing the extent to
which technology has been lapsing key overseers here.
Speaker 14 (30:26):
Yeah.
Speaker 5 (30:26):
The Bloomberg reports that site sources basically says that the
hackers had access to the deliberations of regulators who are
deliberating information about the banks they oversee. Clearly, it's a
deep report. One hundred and fifty thousand emails from June
twenty twenty three until they were discovered earlier this year.
We'll get with the team that broke that story. It
(30:47):
seems like a big one that's sarting to have repercussions
from Bloomberg Tech Newsroom. There's a lot more happening in
the world as well. Elon Musk took to x to
criticize President Trump's top trade advisor Pete Navarro, calling him
quote a moron. This was in response to Navara's comment
that Musk is a car assembler rather than a car manufacturer.
(31:08):
That also comes after Elon Musk's younger brother, Kimball Musk,
criticized President Trump's tariff strategy, calling them a quote structural
permanent acts on the American consumer. Bloomberg's Curra Coulson is
in Austin, Texas and has the fortunate job of untangling
all of that. I think we should start with the
feud between Navarro and Musk. And actually, if you look
(31:29):
at the data third Party or Tessa Zone, there is
support for what Elon Musk is saying that vehicles built
in the United States source components from the United States,
are assembled and manufactured in the United States sort of
knows the tail.
Speaker 15 (31:45):
Yeah, definitely.
Speaker 16 (31:46):
You know, this is something that Tesla's been promoting for
a while. They say promotions frequently in the last few
months that are you know, Tesla's are American made. They
know this is something and simmers they are looking for
as they get concerned about Tariff's.
Speaker 15 (32:00):
Something they've been touting.
Speaker 16 (32:01):
And you know, Elon Musk hasn't directly said anything on
Trump's policies, but he has been speaking out against tariffs.
He's been saying the tariffs, Trump's tariffs as well will
impact Tesla you know, they're not completely insulated, even as
he acknowledges that Tesla is, in his opinion, more American
made than other cars.
Speaker 3 (32:19):
Carl What we're trying to pass here is what is
happening in an administration, in a White House level, and
who has the air of President Trump, and on tariffs,
it feels as though Elon has not. In fact, he
goes as far as to not just call Peter Navarro
a moron, but calling him dumber than a sack of bricks.
I mean, it feels as though he's pushing against the
(32:39):
flow the trajectory here.
Speaker 15 (32:42):
Yeah, over the.
Speaker 16 (32:42):
Weekend, you know, Elon Musk did push back on just
the concept of tariffs alone.
Speaker 15 (32:46):
He was saying, you know, he boughts.
Speaker 16 (32:48):
More of a free open trade between Europe and the US.
He's he is definitely more pro free market, and it's
something he has said.
Speaker 15 (32:58):
Before in the past.
Speaker 16 (32:59):
And while Tesla was initially seen as kind of an
initial winner in the tariffs where it'd be less affected,
you know, executives have said there is expected impact from
tariff's aunt Tesla.
Speaker 3 (33:09):
Kyral Carlson breaking it down, We thank you. Meanwhile, let's
just think about President Trump's tariff uncertainty changing the minds
to some of the biggest bills on Wall Street. Dan
Ives webbush slashing his Apple and Tesla price targets, writing,
these tariffs are so absurd, scary, uncertain to anyone that
has a basic understanding of the global supply chain and
the way US tech companies operate and US consumers live
(33:31):
their daily lives, dan Ives joins us. Now, you also
wrote in your Tesla piece that Elon must needed to
step up.
Speaker 2 (33:39):
If he needed to lead. Is this him leading?
Speaker 3 (33:41):
Is this him stepping up, pushing back against Peter Nevara.
Speaker 7 (33:44):
Look, I mean it's our view. Musk basically needs to
leave the government. I mean because if you look at
the brand damage, you just cannot deny it. I mean,
I think there's twenty percent actually permanent brand damage in Europe,
ten percent of the least in the US. And he's
pushing back because look, Musk, he's getting calls from Fremont,
from Arsten, from what he's hearing in China and in Jeremy.
(34:08):
No one's probably more plugged in along with you, Nadella,
and along with Jensen obviously Cook than Musk. So he
knows tariffs it's a disaster across the board, and it's
our view it sends the tech industry back a decade
if these tariffs actually hit.
Speaker 5 (34:26):
And on the other hand, Tesla's more insulated than the
others on tariffs, right. So what I tried to distinguish
in your note is those forecasts you gave on demand loss.
You said ten percent globally, but more severe in China
in the EU. That's not really a tariff's issue, right,
It's a reputational issue of Musk's association with Trump. Just
(34:50):
explain your modeling.
Speaker 7 (34:51):
Yeah, I mean ed, Unfortunately, Tasso has become a political
symbol around the world, but in a bad way, right.
I mean, if any frustration toward Trump douge tariffs globally,
there's one symbol, it's Tesla, and your Musk obviously went
into the government, you know, in terms of Doge and
everything we've seen and we've talked about, it's a leaks
(35:12):
one hundred hour overhanging the stock. And I think when
you look at trying to model it, there's brand damage,
there's tariff issues, and you're just trying to take stabs
at it. I mean, they just came off of a
disaster one queue delivery number and you know, somebody, it's
been such a long term bull and remember we didn't
lower our rating, still maintain our bullshes on an autonomous
(35:34):
on rebox in the future of Tesla. In my view,
it's been it's been a sad few months to watch
it because it's brand destruction by the hour, by the day.
Speaker 2 (35:45):
Can't deny it, Dan, can't deny it.
Speaker 3 (35:48):
But as you say, you're still overweight and you still
see maybe twenty eight percent upside from here.
Speaker 2 (35:52):
So what is the recovery process here?
Speaker 3 (35:55):
Because it takes a long time to build brand and
very quick to destroy it.
Speaker 7 (36:00):
There's three things. One, he has to leave government. So
when you look at what's happened in Navar, like you know,
investors will wonder like it's just the first step in
terms of stage left, and we've talked about it's a
key sixty ninety days ahead. Two. If that happens, you
have brand damage. Some of that's permanent, but it's a scar,
it's a black eye. It stitches, but it doesn't change
(36:21):
the long term view of Tesla in terms of autonomous
robotics in the broader future. The third thing is it's
investors understanding like what the game plan is here? You
have bid that's rising as a competitor global and you
can in Rosecar Glass to say it, they're not you
need a CEO Musk in that seat as CEO of Tesla.
(36:44):
You can't be spending five percent, three percent, two percent
of your time there and the rest of the government.
That's been the frustration because Musk is Tesla.
Speaker 3 (36:53):
Tesla is Musk, But what does he bring out to
compete against BYD when he doesn't want to erode from
a price point, Everyone feeling that it would be cannibalizedation
if you brought back a much lower price competitor to
a Model three for example, where does he go the
cyber truck isn't selling.
Speaker 7 (37:07):
Yeah, but our view is that ninety percent of the
value of Tesla going forward is autonomous robot It's about
unservised FSD in Austin. It's about launching everything robotech. When
you when you look into the next year of cybercaps
that they could do a core scale production. And I
think that's why, like when you look at these tariffs, Tesla, Apple,
(37:29):
Gimp could go across the board. It cuts the legs
off of US tech and that's been why you know,
it's just such a very frustrating uncertain time.
Speaker 5 (37:38):
Dan I got a question from the audience on X
from Mark Munro who asks if tech companies are removing guidance.
I think he means will they remove guidance?
Speaker 7 (37:48):
Oh yeah, I mean any tech company that gives guidance,
I'd be shocked because right now it's blindfolded darts. You
don't know where guidance is going to go. And that's
but it speaks a point. We're gonna have rallies. You
see number cuts, and we've tried to cut some numbers.
Other analysts have as well. But I mean the one
you put these tariffs in when it comes to China Taiwan,
(38:10):
then ultimately you're gonna have to toss out two Q numbers.
You're gonna toss out three Q numbers street assuming it's
some sort of three to six month trade battle, you know,
then they'll basically look at what did twenty twenty six
numbers look like? And that's how investors are going to
ultimately when you look like worst case, base case, best case,
all the thing that we're talking about, investors around the world,
(38:31):
you know, over the last called seventy two hours. That's
where you look at n video, what's baked in, what's
baked into Microsoft worst base right, barecase.
Speaker 5 (38:42):
I's a web bash.
Speaker 17 (38:43):
Thank you very much, appreciate its.
Speaker 5 (38:54):
Breaking use crossing the bloem bg terminal. The Supreme Court
has backed President Trump for now in the issue of
federal worker firings. It's a case that's being discussed as
part of the broader initiative of layoffs and voluntary redundancies.
Voluntary the DOGE is undertaking. The wording of the headline
is for now, Caroline indicating I think that it's a
temporary judgment and that there's more to come on waiting
(39:16):
for the story to hit the terminal as well, but
it's one that we're watching closely. There's another big story
happening in our world on bluebog technology, and that's private markets.
It was supposed to be the year for IPOs among
venture catalysts and startups. Instead, President Trump's tariffs have put
a pause on any ambitions to go public, with the
likes of StubHub and Klana pulling back on their plans.
(39:37):
Bluemost Katie Ruth joins us and you summarize the anxiety
that's out there, the panic brilliantly in the peace out overnight.
I'd be honest. When I woke up, I got text
messages from both sides. Some said paralysis, some said there's
some panic happening, but people are moving. Summarize your reporting.
Speaker 18 (39:54):
Sure, other than Trump's strongest supporter is most of Silicon Valley.
Most vcs we talked to very upset about this. You know,
basically there's two issues here. It's delaying some much needed
IPOs due to market volatility, and then also could bring
higher costs to some of their businesses, depending on the
business line. But as you know, there haven't been a
(40:16):
lot of IPOs for three years, and this is supposed
to be that quarter.
Speaker 3 (40:20):
LPs getting pretty anxious and leaning on the vcs, Katie,
But what about current funding rounds. Are there any areas where,
particularly in the AI space, companies are still able to raise.
Speaker 18 (40:34):
Sure and so normally there's a lag effect, you know,
from public market volatility to private markets. Wh It takes
a few months for things to trickle down at each stage.
But you know, I think it partly also depends on
the sector. Obviously, if there's a direct business impact if anything,
you know, if their revenue could be hit by this,
(40:56):
if their costs could go up because of this due
to international trade, those things are going to have a
tougher time fundraising right now, or at least at the
terms that they thought they could get. But you know,
if it's something that's not directly impacted by the tariffs,
then you know, you may see things remain relatively constant
(41:17):
from a fundraising perspective, unless there's a broader issue with
the market, although it seems like it's kind of resolved
a little bit so far.
Speaker 3 (41:26):
Jake Saper, who you quote from Emergency Capital, we're trying
to triage and figure out. Katie Ruth, thanks so much
for that story. And let's talk about one area where
a company is potentially move.
Speaker 2 (41:37):
Mickey moves. Billionaire Michael gonovogratz Ha's got his wish.
Speaker 3 (41:40):
His crypto conglomerate, Galaxy Digital Holdings Limited, has received permission
for a direct listing on the Nasdaq Stock Exchange. Finally,
this company can trade in the United States as well
as in Canada, where we're exsuming. Trading is expected to
actually happen pretty shortly ed after a special shareholder meeting
on May ninth.
Speaker 2 (41:56):
The company has said all of this in a press release.
Speaker 5 (41:59):
This is the US Justice Department will limit the kinds
of cryptocurrency crimes it will investigate and prosecute. We've got
a memo. The DOJ said it will focus on cases
related to terrorism, drug cartels, victimizing investors, and other limited categories.
One story will continue to track Carrot throughout the year.
Speaker 3 (42:17):
Yeah, all things on Crypto News. Crypto Show coming up
twelve pm at Eastern time. But that does it for
this edition of Bloomberg Technology. Check in on the markets
as we continue to rally today as a Bloomberg Technology