June 2, 2025 • 42 mins
Bloomberg’s Caroline Hyde discusses the latest trade tensions between the US and China and the impact they are having on tech. Plus, Tesla is under pressure as sales fall aggressively in France, and Elon Musk pivots his focus back to the company. And, Big Tech is driving S&P 500 growth again.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
From the heart of where innovation, money and power collide
in Silicon Valley and beyond. This is Bloomberg Technology with
Caroline Hyde and Ed Ludlow.
Speaker 2 (00:27):
Live from New York.
Speaker 3 (00:28):
This is Bloomberg Technology coming up. Trade tensions they ramp
higher as US and China accused one another of violating
recent agreements.
Speaker 2 (00:36):
If we bring you the tech impact, that's.
Speaker 3 (00:38):
As big tech stocks have actually been back in the
driver's seat, outperforming the S and P five hundred for.
Speaker 2 (00:43):
Eight consecutive weeks.
Speaker 3 (00:44):
But Tesla is under pressure with sales falling aggressively in
France to a three year low.
Speaker 2 (00:50):
Can musks return from.
Speaker 3 (00:52):
Doge turning around for first, let's checking on these markets
which websaw on the day. We were in risk aversion
mode a little bit earlier, and now we tread backwater
to flat. Remember May was a stellar month and the
Nazarck Cup nine percent for the S and P five hundred,
having one of its.
Speaker 2 (01:06):
Best Mays in years.
Speaker 3 (01:09):
But we are up just a tenth of a percent
as we try and shake off what is anxiety around
trade tensions and we get a dose of manufacturing reality.
Is manufacturing numbers come in weak. Looking at the Golden
Dragon Index. This is, of course the NASA Golden Dragon.
Looking at some of the tech giants in China, that
too recovers up a tenth of a percent. Move on
to individual movers because there are some laggards out there,
(01:30):
and notably Tesla has been off today. More broadly, and
we are going to keep a keen eye on what's
happening with two point seven percent to the lower as
we worry about sales in France. We'll dig into that
later in the show. Byd this is the Wrong Taker.
We'll bring you what bid shares have been doing. Their
depository receiats have been basically trading flat, but here we
have it off by about two tenths of a percent.
Speaker 2 (01:49):
Was lower in Chinese trading.
Speaker 3 (01:51):
That as the competition fierce competition is getting some criticism
from the government itself and government related entities. But focusing
more broadly on China, not just the EV sector, We're
going to look at what it has been happening with
the Golden Dragon index. Look, as we say, just recovering,
but after the last three days that has been having
let's call it a plummet following remarks. Now we know
(02:11):
of President Trump saying that Beijing is violated at trade talks.
More pain could be install course, as China issues its
own claims that the US has preached recent deal itself grimgs.
Speaker 2 (02:21):
Mike Shepard joins US.
Speaker 3 (02:22):
Look, the tensative agreements of Switzerland are unwinding themselves somewhat.
Speaker 4 (02:29):
Well, they really are, Cara. We are seeing this datent
that have been achieved in Geneva just a few weeks
ago rapidly fade away. On Friday, we saw President Donald
Trump accuse Beijing of violating the spirit of that understanding
without offering too many specifics, but his trade advisor Jamison
Greer helped fill in the blanks, and the US concerns
(02:51):
seemed to center on what they see as Beijing's failure
to lift barriers on exports of rare earth minerals to
the US quickly enough whatever was discussed in Switzerland. On
the flip side, though, we are seeing China come back
very strong today accusing the US of violating its promises
under that agreement with some recent steps, and we saw
(03:13):
those with the American move to unveil new guidelines that
are coming on AI chip export controls, and that included
a warning to US allies against using Huawei's Ascend chip,
which is a challenge of course to Nvidia. The US
has also moved to restrict exports and sales of chip
design software to China, which is a big deal for
(03:35):
China's own AI and tech ambitions. And then finally the
icing on the cake of course, the revocation of Chinese
student visas. All of those things in China's bill of
goods against the US this morning, and this raises questions
about whether hjion Paying and Donald Trump will actually speak
by phone as Donald Trump has said he would like
to and mind.
Speaker 3 (03:55):
What's so notable is that two of those moves of
the three that you outline completely tech focused. Is it
going to be technology that remains the eye of the
storm when this attack.
Speaker 4 (04:06):
Well, it's either the eye of the storm, Caro, or
the thing that is driving the direction of the storm.
Because remember this comes on top of years of escalating
restrictions on exports to China imposed by the US and
really also twisting allies arms to take part in those
as well. Remember this is not just semiconductor exports, it's
(04:27):
also sales of chip making machinery to Beijing. All of
this is designed to curb China's ambitions in areas like
artificial intelligence, and this is really starting to take a
toll in a way politically between Washington and Beijing, and
we're seeing tech emerge as this flashpoint and could be
what unravels whatever understanding may have emerged engine Even now,
(04:51):
there is a lot of time before the ninety day
pause expires, and the two sides still could find a
way back to the bargaining table and to maybe have
that call between the two leaders. But right now the
direction of travel is not heading in that way, at
least from what we are seeing.
Speaker 3 (05:09):
Caro make Shepherd breaking it down, We thank you, and
let's stick with how markets are reacting, but more broadly,
how they should be thinking about this trade uncertainty. An
expert is Eliza Toovin, managing director at Gano Global. We
turn to your years of advising government, the CIA, and
of course, more broadly the field of enterprise. How bad
is this looking? How much we were turning to escalation now?
Speaker 5 (05:33):
Hi, Caroline, great to be on with you, and I
agree with Michael Shepherd that the honeymoon.
Speaker 2 (05:38):
We saw coming out of Geneva.
Speaker 5 (05:40):
A few weeks ago is now shattered and we're back
in this cycle of escalation between the US and China,
and I agree with you that at the center of
this is technology. What's interesting about China's very strenuous reaction
to the US export controls on the Huawei assnship is
their propaganda apparatus has long been arguing that the US
(06:01):
export controls are ineffective and that China can work around them.
But I think the level of emphasis they're putting on this,
you know, the volume at which they're really screaming for
these things to be removed, indicates just how effective and
how painful they are on China.
Speaker 6 (06:18):
So we're going to be.
Speaker 5 (06:19):
Seeing to see, watch to see how the US reacts
going forward. China is trying to press the US very
hard to make more concessions. After Geneva, the tariffs came
down significantly, but really at the heart of those tensions
were China's export control on rare earth and then the
(06:40):
US export controls on AI chips and related tooling.
Speaker 2 (06:44):
Let's go to.
Speaker 3 (06:45):
AI chips first before we get to rares, because there's
not only the criticism coming from China but some US companies.
I just think of what Jensen Wong was telling our
own ed Ludlow last week how much basically we're forcing
China to innovate, and how he longs to be able
to access that much.
Speaker 2 (07:00):
Do you ever see that happening.
Speaker 5 (07:03):
I think it's all about this scale of compute that's needed.
China can always find workarounds through smuggling, through making some
of their own chips, but it's really all about scaling,
and as you talk about on your show a lot,
really being able to make enough chips to supply the
rapidly escalating demands of compute in this age of AI
(07:25):
is at issue, and that's where the US still has
this very large.
Speaker 2 (07:29):
Lead just being able to scale up.
Speaker 5 (07:31):
So if China is able to extract any additional concessions
from the US so that they can get more chips legally,
that's going to help them kind.
Speaker 2 (07:39):
Of shrink the gap faster.
Speaker 5 (07:42):
However, if the US keeps these export controls in place
and enforces them strictly and gets allies and partners on
board on some of the tooling, some of the aspects
where countries like Japan and the Netherlands and Germany are strong,
then this gap between the US and China compute stance
to lengthen over the coming months and years.
Speaker 3 (08:03):
But both sides have chips on the table here that
they can play, and play hard. I was just at
the Reagan National Economic Forum on Friday where there was
a lot of anxiety just how confident Chinese leadership is
at the moment that they too can fight back. Liza,
what about the rare earth's signals? How much pain could
that levee on US industry itself as well?
Speaker 5 (08:24):
We know that the auto manufacturers and the defense manufacturers
were they came crying to the US government before the
Geneva talks and said that these things are starting to
impose pain and in starting to impose work stoppages, and
that's something.
Speaker 2 (08:42):
That it's a gray rhino.
Speaker 5 (08:44):
I mean, the US national security establishment has known about
this dependency on China for rare earth processing for years,
but they haven't come up.
Speaker 2 (08:53):
With a solution at scale. But I think what was.
Speaker 5 (08:56):
Interesting over the last month is that China has broken
the glass on actually using this coercive instrument. It's actually
now ratcheting up pressure it. Shei Jinping has an appetite
for leverage, and now that he knows he has this
leverage over the US you're going to see him pushing
again and again to kind of recycle this leverage and
(09:17):
try to extract more concessions from the US. But rather
than bending over and giving China more concessions, over the
last couple of weeks, you've seen them doubling down with
this empowered Commerce department, strengthening and broadening the export controls.
Speaker 3 (09:35):
So you don't expect the US to blink in this moment.
What advice do you give to the private sect right
now as to how tough this could get for access
to RAS and indeed, in the flip side of you're
a Chinese company access to US chips.
Speaker 5 (09:51):
Well, I think that the private sector needs to remember
that this isn't just a competition about tech and trade,
I mean tariffs and technolog The export controls, of course,
are incredibly important to markets, but perhaps even more important
is to watch the geopolitical tensions that are unfolding in
the Indo Pacific around Taiwan in the South China Sea.
(10:13):
Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, just on Saturday at the
Shangri Law Forum was warning that a Taiwan crisis could
be imminent, and we know that China frequently has military
drills kind of these practice exercises around Taiwan and in
the South China Sea, and it's had the habit lately
of not announcing these in advance, so it's not giving
(10:35):
markets heads up that these are going to happen.
Speaker 2 (10:38):
Why does it do that.
Speaker 5 (10:39):
It wants to preserve ambiguity if outside observers aren't sure
if this is just a drill or if it's something
more an actual rehearsal for something like a blockade. That's
very worrisome because it shrinks the window of warning. And
that's something that we're watching very closely at Garno Global
kind of the links between these technology export controls terrors
(11:03):
and the potential for some kind of supply chain disrupting
crisis around Taiwan that could prevent the chips from getting
out of Taiwan, perhaps for a couple of weeks or longer.
Speaker 3 (11:14):
Well, that's crucial to our audience, So thanks for making
that link. Visitobin of course, managing director at Garno Global.
Great to have some time with you. Coming up, let's
talk about chips more. But Broadcomm's results this week, they're
likely to actually show ai demand is still booming. We
can talk about what's expected, how it could impact the
wider market. This is bloombag technology. Let's talk about how
(11:43):
the same tech giants that contributed to the S and
P five pounders decline in April, they are now driving
the recovery in US equities. Just taking video and put
a bow on a better than expected earning season for
big tech last week by delivering a strong outlook for
revenue despite US restrictions on sales of its to China.
Speaker 2 (12:01):
This is as we expect.
Speaker 3 (12:02):
Earning some Braolcom this week, you see the shares are
also trading higher.
Speaker 2 (12:05):
Lue Meg's run.
Speaker 3 (12:06):
Bastantaker has been writing about how the Magnificent Seven in
particular have helped bounce back of our lows some phenomenal
recovery numbers.
Speaker 7 (12:16):
Hey, thanks for having me. So this earning season was
a real test for big tech, especially given just how
uncertain the backdrop has become, given tariffs, given all sorts
of geopolitical tensions, given concerns about AI spending in the
ROI from AI, and I would say that broadly speaking,
this group passed with flying colors. I'd say the notable
exception was Apple, which is dealing with a number of
(12:37):
its own sort of idiosyncratic issues. But the major companies
like Microsoft, Nvidia, Meta Alphabet quite strong across the board,
showing pretty positive trends.
Speaker 6 (12:47):
And these are all companies.
Speaker 7 (12:48):
That have allowed the market to really recover off the
low that we saw early in April.
Speaker 3 (12:53):
It's interesting that we're not back to our record highs.
We're actually inching in on them.
Speaker 8 (12:57):
Ryan.
Speaker 3 (12:57):
Meanwhile, looking at the S and P five hundred, the
valuation story, that's starting to get a little dicey, right
when you're looking at magnificent seven names.
Speaker 7 (13:05):
Yeah, so I'd say these names got pretty cheap by
a lot of metrics in the whole tear off cell
off in early April. They have come back quite dramatically,
I think in videos up something like forty five percent
or so since that low. So these are pretty remarkable
gains and it has come back in the valuation. But
I would say sort of the countering argument to this
is growth is expected to remain pretty strong for a
lot of these companies, and if you look at something
(13:27):
like the PEG ratio, they are all treating at fairly
modest ratios on that metric. So the valuations have come
back some but the growth that was just affirmed in
these most recent reports also pretty positive.
Speaker 3 (13:39):
We're looking at the moment of how pricey perhaps they
are from a price to forward looking earnings perspective at
least Umeg's ran for Selca.
Speaker 2 (13:48):
It's great to have you on as always.
Speaker 3 (13:49):
Let's get you even more of a take here and
particularly on AI demand what it means for certain companies
about to give us their numbers. Angelo Zeno's with us
VPN senior equity analyst over at CFRA Research. We think,
think about how in Nvidia helped the market recover. We
saw the numbers looking good. What about Broadcom as well?
We're still going to get AI optimism there.
Speaker 9 (14:08):
Yeah, so thanks for having me, Caroline, and I think, yeah,
to your point, I think it's going to be very strong.
We're looking for top line growth of about twenty percent
here for the for the April quarter. And listen, I
think when you kind of look overall the trends that
we've seen here over the last couple couple of weeks
or you know, since Q one earning season really starting
with you know, Alphabet and Microsoft at the start of
(14:30):
earning season up until in video last week, the trend
on the compute side of things is I think much
stronger than anybody had anticipated, and really something that Gentsen
Wong last year, really last week really pounded the table on.
So when you kind of think about the drivers here
specifically for you know, the AI semi names here, over
(14:51):
the next couple of years, it really is going to
be tied to compute and the higher demand for computer
is going to drive higher capital spending plans, right, which
is what we saw Q one earning season. So we
think those trends remain intact here. For broadcams specifically, they've
got to buy a sixty forty split in semis versus software,
So the semi side will continue to drive that demand.
(15:12):
But software shouldn't be ignored because the profitability there and
growth continues to be very good.
Speaker 3 (15:18):
I mean, we're expecting strong things from broad Comm you too.
Look your top semi conductive names are in Video and Broadcom, AMD, Marvell.
I'm looking at how much some of those names have
already driven the S and P five hundred recovery. A
great chart from Ryan's story is that in Vidio makes
up twelve percent. Basically, the S and P five hundred
is rebound since April, but swiftly after them was Microsoft
that you named as being a winner of late broadcom
(15:41):
some five percent.
Speaker 2 (15:42):
But is the valuation getting a little too.
Speaker 3 (15:44):
Rich now given the amount of geopolitical anxiety we're just
talking about with Eliza Tobin.
Speaker 9 (15:50):
Yeah, I mean, I think as far as the valuation
is concerned, you know, it's it's not as attractive as
it was four to six weeks ago. But I will
tell you that the valuations has just got you know,
just hit you know, basement level values. I mean, you
were talking about Nvidia at one point trading about seventeen
eighteen times on our twenty twenty six estimate.
Speaker 10 (16:08):
They're now try closer.
Speaker 9 (16:10):
To about twenty four to twenty five times on twenty
twenty six expectations. And I will tell you this, the
visibility again is improving here has improved of the last
couple of weeks, whether it be on the trade side
of things, improving commentary on trade, or whether it be
you know, just from the reiteration in terms of capex
spens plans for some of these hyperscalers. Now, I will say,
(16:32):
as far as you know what to look out for
here on the geopolitical side of things, A lot is
going There are a lot of moving parts here. Over
the next couple of weeks, obviously we want to hear
about the US China discussions. But as far as semis
are pincerned, there's a two thirty two semiconductor investigation that
is ongoing right now. We expect to get more clarity
in terms of what is what that's going to look
(16:53):
like as far as tariffs are concerned here over the
next two months or so. So it's waiting simo. But
our view you're going to see a permanent tariff on
the semiconductor industry when that gets unveiled. Our base case
right now is about a twenty five percent tariff.
Speaker 3 (17:08):
What about the smartphone industry, because actually Apple has contributed
to the reprieve and the S and P five hundred,
it's one of your top names for hardware. But boy,
we're wondering whether it's going to get individual tariffs of
twenty five percent landed on it, not to mention maybe
Samsung gets the same though.
Speaker 9 (17:24):
Yeah, so you know, we're not looking for an individual
tariff on that side of things. But our view here
is they you know, they fall under the national security
umbre umbrella of the two thirty two semiconductor investigation, similar
to many other hardware names that are right now exempt from.
Speaker 10 (17:39):
A lot of the tariffs.
Speaker 9 (17:41):
But that said, if we're assuming something along the lines
of a twenty five percent, you know, based tariff or
two thirty two, that would imply that Apple probably has
to increase the price of its iPhone seventeen this fall.
Our view is probably along the lines of at least
fifty dollars or so. So again, we have to wait
see to see how all this stuff really plays itself
(18:02):
out on the geopolitical side of things, But our view
is there's going to be some sort of permanent tariff
that goes into effect for the hardware companies and specifically Apple,
and Apple we think is best positioned to offset some
of those higher tariffs because of their brand recognition and
because of their pricing power.
Speaker 3 (18:19):
So angelo, if an investor doesn't have the exposure they'd
like in these names, should they buy at this point?
Speaker 9 (18:27):
I mean, I think that's a good question. You know,
we look at it right now in the sense that
we're looking more for a near term, you know, digestion period.
The dangerous thing with that is you just don't know
what you're going to get in a day in, day
out basis because of the geopolitical environment right now. So
if you don't own any of these names right now,
our view is you do want to buy some of
(18:47):
these AI semi oriented names because they.
Speaker 10 (18:50):
Are going to really drive the.
Speaker 9 (18:52):
Earnings potential for the tech sector here over the next
two to three years, specifically Nvidia and Broadcom, as well
as some of the others smaller names, but Nvidia and
Broadcom would kind of be two of the top names
with the best visibility out there. And even if you
see some of these negative headwinds will whether it be
tied to the two thirty two semi conductor investigation or
something on the trade side of things. Ultimately we think
(19:14):
this stuff works itself out and the earnings potential is
so great that you know, two to three years down
the road, these stocks should be significantly higher than where.
Speaker 10 (19:21):
They are now.
Speaker 2 (19:22):
We get those earnings for Broadcom.
Speaker 3 (19:23):
On Thursday after the bell, Angelo Zino a busy week
ahead cfr A Research.
Speaker 2 (19:27):
We thank you.
Speaker 3 (19:35):
Samsung well, it's nearing a wide ranging deal to invest
in Perplexity AI and put search technology from the AI
startup at the very forefront of the South Korean company's devices.
It's according to people familiar, the two companies are already
in talks to pre load Perplexities app and Assistant on
upcoming Samsung devices who like Seth Figeman joins us for
more on the story, and we knew that they struck
(19:57):
the still with Motorola Samsung ongoing conversation. How deeply into
twine will they become?
Speaker 11 (20:02):
Yeah, I think this is even more expensive than Mogo Motorola.
It's about them being preloaded on devices, which matters a lot,
But with Samsung, it's also integrating into its assystem, product,
into its browser, and of course just preloading on Samsung devices. Generally,
if you're Google right now, I think if they're setting
up a little bit straighter right now, there's a big
difference between being preloaded and the default service, which is
(20:23):
what Google has paid for for years and quite expensively.
But this is a step in that direction, and given
the anti trust scrutiny on Google, I would be a
little bit concerned.
Speaker 3 (20:31):
I mean, of course that anti trust discussion of what
ultimately might be the policies they have to enact to
appease the judge.
Speaker 2 (20:39):
I mean that wrapped up on Friday.
Speaker 3 (20:40):
Analysts are deeply concerned about what all of this means
for alphabet How much does this also depend on Perplexity
getting some money from Samsung.
Speaker 11 (20:49):
Yeah, I think that's part of the broader tie up here.
So we have previously reported that Perplexity is close to
raising about five hundred million dollars like a fourteen billion
dollar valuation. Samsung could be one of the larger investors
in that deal, and that strikes as part of a
much larger tie up between these two companies.
Speaker 3 (21:03):
How does that fourteen billion dollars stack up? Because like
we've become some numb to these.
Speaker 2 (21:07):
Figures because it's the enormous over to open hahard.
Speaker 11 (21:10):
It's one of the largest AI players out there right now,
but it's still this is a really competitive environment. Not
only are they going up against Google, but going up
against open ai and others who are moving into real
time search but being more deeply intrigated into devices than
millions of people use. That is a really big leg
up in that race.
Speaker 3 (21:24):
And people who loved Perplexity in many ways it is
one of the first that offered you where the information
was coming from but they've had their own copyright issues.
Speaker 6 (21:30):
As well, Right, that's true.
Speaker 11 (21:31):
I think Perplexity's main thing that was that they have
great design. You know, it's not so much that they
built a better model than Opennie are Google, but they
figure out how to package it in a really compelling way.
That seems to be drawing fans not just from consumers
but from the hardware companies.
Speaker 2 (21:43):
How soon could this all be announced?
Speaker 11 (21:45):
As soon as this year for devices?
Speaker 6 (21:46):
Maybe into next year?
Speaker 2 (21:47):
Okay, we'll keep an eye out for the unfolding events.
Speaker 3 (21:50):
Seth Nigaman, We appreciate it. Welcome back to BlueBag Technology
and Karen Hydeer New York. A quick check on these markets,
because boy May was Estella month for the NASTAG.
Speaker 2 (22:05):
Today we bounce off of our lows, but the anxiety remains.
What about the pulling back from.
Speaker 3 (22:11):
China and the US in terms of those tentative agreements
made in Switzerland, The progress seems to be on the line.
Many are worrying about that at the moment. Dig into
some of the names. I want to shine light on
one Chinese EV player. Of course, we've got to keep
an iron byd It's depository receipts doing better than they
did trade in Hong Kong at least, but under pressure
is indeed, the Chinese government tries to hint at byd
(22:31):
that you're competing too hard in our country, you're racing
to the border in bottom in terms of price, or
to boost your numbers.
Speaker 2 (22:38):
Will they pull back a little bit from that?
Speaker 3 (22:40):
But Tesla of by three percent, this is the numbers
are woeful for sales in May. In France they're done
sixty seven percent, just seven hundred and twenty.
Speaker 2 (22:48):
One cars in the whole of France.
Speaker 3 (22:51):
All of this comes though, as Elon Musk officially departs
the White House after running those over there, at least
as many would say he was running it where Bush Securities,
managing direct to Dan I is writing this weekend that
this is quote music to the ears of Tesla shareholders.
With a crucial few months ahead, Dan Eyes joins us now,
and boy, those French numbers really show what the crucial
(23:12):
few months mean.
Speaker 2 (23:13):
Can Elon steer this the other way?
Speaker 10 (23:17):
Okay?
Speaker 8 (23:17):
I mean, obviously the leader's back, right, I mean, Musk
is Tesla Tesla's Musk. But I believe it's really about
autonomous and I think as we go into Austin in June,
you go into the robotics future, that's going to be
keep part of the value of Tesla's how we get
to a two.
Speaker 10 (23:33):
Trillion dollar valuation. But and you'll quit Europe.
Speaker 8 (23:37):
You look at us Juku at China and I think
Musk is going to start to turn that around.
Speaker 10 (23:41):
And I think that's where investors are starting to factor
in you.
Speaker 8 (23:45):
And I'm gonna say, what's happened next month or two,
But a rebound second half of the year.
Speaker 3 (23:49):
Okay, so stomach for the near term. These probably remaining
poor numbers. The new refreshed model. Why isn't cutting it?
It seems it is more the political backlash. But you say,
ultimately the technology is going to outweigh a brand issue
that they've had.
Speaker 8 (24:05):
Yeah, I mean, look me, and you've talked about it before.
I believe ninety percent of the future value is autonomous
and robotics. BI look in terms of margins delivery growth,
that's obviously very important to near turn numbers, but I
do believe streets factoring, and you start to see a
rebound second half of the year, you ever recommitted mass.
Speaker 10 (24:25):
Queerly and I think when you look to the future, I.
Speaker 8 (24:28):
Mean this long with Nvidio, I believe the most disruptive
technology companies in the world. And then who's driving the
software piece of course it's pound tier.
Speaker 3 (24:38):
But why is Tesla clearly going to be such a
leadership in autonomous when Weimo is already busy doing it
And there is a different difference in the technology here
with Weimo going all in on lidar and a very
different tactic coming from elon Musk and Tesla.
Speaker 10 (24:53):
Yeah, look, Willim will clearly head start. I think Wimo
they're going to be at the.
Speaker 8 (24:57):
Kids table relatively Cassela in the com years because of
the scale and scope.
Speaker 10 (25:02):
Waymos in four cities, two hundred thirty thousand hour cars.
Speaker 8 (25:05):
Like in other words, when I work out over the
coming years, I think you, look, this is going to
be dominated by Tesla in terms of cyber cabs.
Speaker 10 (25:14):
It all starts.
Speaker 8 (25:15):
Obviously in the next few weeks in Austin, but no
one will match the global scale and scope of Musk
and Tesla.
Speaker 3 (25:23):
So what milestones in Austin, for example, do they need
to meet? Ed Ludlow with that great reporting out last
week that June twelfth is going to be the date
we're anticipating for it to already make actionable what they've
been trialing on the roads thus far. What do they
need to meet, how do they need to show off
in the technology to work?
Speaker 8 (25:41):
Look the interventions, right, I mean, just showing that this
is something that is ready for prime time, because this
is just the beginning of ultimately going to be fifteen
to twenty twenty five cities over the next year. And
I think this is just really kind of way in
the ground from technology perspective, showing where a Tesla is
going to get to them when I believe, look, Weimo
(26:03):
is going to be successful and that's going to be
a key sort of player. But in terms of the
global vision, who's really going to dominate? I believe it's
Tesla and autonomous.
Speaker 2 (26:12):
And is it a cybercab that dominates?
Speaker 3 (26:15):
Is it the fact that the Tesla's are already out
on the road and they become the autonomous vehicles they
are the ones that we don't use ourselves but lend
out to the ecosystem.
Speaker 10 (26:23):
Well, yeah, I mean it's first of all, it's data driven.
I mean, by next sure you have ten.
Speaker 8 (26:26):
Million vehicles, you know, in terms of teslas that have
been sold data driven, and but I do believe cybercabs
when you think about the autonomous piece, that's going to
be so important.
Speaker 10 (26:38):
But then also it's about FSD.
Speaker 8 (26:40):
I mean FSD penetration could go from fifteen percent to
fifty percent. Think about the margin, the software, the uplift
that that's going to lead to test and that's why
I believe they are going into their biggest chapter of growth.
Speaker 10 (26:53):
And that's why also it's just.
Speaker 8 (26:54):
So important that must laser focus on Tesla on those
days in Trump White House hour rearview mirror.
Speaker 3 (27:01):
And you think he will be laser focused on Tesla
because he's also saying I've got to be laser focused
on X. He's also remaining very committed and focused on
SpaceX as well, and not to mention the XAI getting
woven into X at the moment.
Speaker 8 (27:14):
Look, it's all part of it, obviously, the broader mask ecosystem,
but the hearts and lungs, the golden goose continues to
be Tesla, and I think must recognize is now is
the time, especially given autonomous and robiotics without actually with optimists.
Speaker 3 (27:31):
Tell us the two trillion dollar valuation and how you
actually got there.
Speaker 2 (27:35):
From a number's perspective.
Speaker 8 (27:37):
Look when I look at when I look at autonomous
and you start to model out what could maybe twenty
percent of vehicles being autonomous, you're essentially looking three four
hours of earnings eventually is going to be thirteen to
fifteen hours earnings. So the whole math of the Tesla
valuation is going to drastically change.
Speaker 10 (27:56):
And that's all about, like I believe, from an AI.
Speaker 8 (27:59):
Perspective, one of probably the most undervalued pure players in
the market is Tesla.
Speaker 10 (28:04):
Now, of course Nvidia, poun Teer.
Speaker 8 (28:06):
You know how the hyperscalers, Microsoft and others continue to
front and center.
Speaker 10 (28:10):
But you know, Tesla more and more is going to
prove that when you especially in.
Speaker 8 (28:14):
The physical AI play in terms of our time as robotics,
they're gonna be front and center.
Speaker 3 (28:20):
At the moment, it's a one trillion dollar market capitalization,
How quickly does this two trillion become a reality?
Speaker 10 (28:28):
I think next twelve to eighteen months, and I look
and I think.
Speaker 2 (28:31):
That's going to double in that amount of time.
Speaker 8 (28:33):
That's our view, and I think it could be conservative
relative to as is all plays out, because I think
again again, Musk and Tesla underestimated. Next week you're buying
you know called you know, wait next week and when
this actually the vision starts, it's going.
Speaker 10 (28:50):
To kick off. I think it's the golden age at Tesla.
Speaker 3 (28:54):
You are the highest price target five hundred, few bone
securities below you four seventy, but the price targets go
all all the way down to just I mean JP
Morgan on one hundred and fifteen. So from what is
it that others aren't getting here? Is it just the
scale of the ambition, is it the execution? What is
it when you're sitting around the table with other analysts
(29:15):
and they're like no, Dan, and you're like no.
Speaker 10 (29:17):
Yes, well yeah, I mean to that point.
Speaker 8 (29:20):
I mean if you go back over the last five, seven,
eight years and the Neva underestimated tassa musk every time, right,
So I mean many thought that the chance of them
actually coming out with an EV was unrealistic, the chance
of them scaling to over a million vehicles, so we're
just again again. I think they continue to view this
as an automobile company. It's a disruptive technology player, one
(29:42):
of the best in the world along with Nvidian.
Speaker 10 (29:45):
Of course, Pound.
Speaker 3 (29:46):
Tier Therefore we're looking forward to the global story here.
Speaker 2 (29:52):
Does this have to be executed in the US?
Speaker 3 (29:54):
What about over in China at the moment where we're
just seeing the level of price competition and indeed the
commitment that we're starting see from BYD also into autonomous.
Speaker 10 (30:03):
Look, China is a key market.
Speaker 8 (30:04):
I mean, you're over forty percent of deliveries that come
out of trying to keep up from a supply perspective.
Speaker 10 (30:10):
But it's also why too, It's it's.
Speaker 8 (30:11):
Important more and more must that he distanced himself in
terms of from Trump White House. Now start to play
that ten percent politician ninety percent CEO.
Speaker 10 (30:20):
You know what we see from Apple China is.
Speaker 8 (30:23):
Key and I think we're going to continue to see
now rebound China and Autonomous Test is going to be
a major player in that market along with BYD and others.
Speaker 3 (30:32):
And then let's talk robotics, because I'm hearing more and
more about how robotics is going to be the next
area of key growth. How quickly does the optimist become
the two trellion dollar driver.
Speaker 8 (30:43):
And remember we're not even really factoring that in so
it speaks to our view like when you look at
optimists and as that plays out, robotics potential could even be.
Speaker 10 (30:52):
Bigger than autonomous And.
Speaker 8 (30:54):
I think when it comes to physical AI, it's Tesla
and a Video that are leading that. And I think
is that all this is going to get in the
next twelve, eighteen, twenty four months.
Speaker 10 (31:05):
It's the reality, right.
Speaker 8 (31:06):
The scale and scope is something that tests has a
huge advantage of. And that's why I think optimist is
something that again I think investors Wall Street massively underestimating,
but they will be proven wrong.
Speaker 10 (31:19):
I think as this all plays out, how much.
Speaker 3 (31:21):
Is supply chain going to be a bottleneck kit because
we keep talking time and time again about the rare
earth control that China has. I mean, the fact that
Tesla is so present in China from a supply side perspective,
is that a winning formula?
Speaker 10 (31:34):
Oh?
Speaker 8 (31:34):
With that, I mean used now that I think that's
the key, right, Like having such a big presence, and
of course Musk has very good relationship in Beijing, you know,
in terms of their footprint, that is very important.
Speaker 10 (31:46):
It gives them a huge advantage.
Speaker 8 (31:48):
And also I think it speaks to the timing, especially
in this US China negotiations to further and further must
distance themselves from Trump in the White House. I think
is important, especially when it plays to what's happened China.
Speaker 3 (32:01):
I'm going to end on Apple because you were just
talking about other companies that have been owning the space
Palanteer of course being one that you keep mentioning within software.
Speaker 2 (32:09):
But what about the future of.
Speaker 3 (32:10):
Apple right now from a supply chain perspective, from a
geopolitical perspective, because it seems as though, well Tim Cook
needs to be a little bit more politician right now too.
Speaker 8 (32:20):
Yeah, I think there's no better CEO in the world
that can navigate it.
Speaker 2 (32:23):
He's not gone very well so far, I see.
Speaker 8 (32:26):
I would disagree to the point that he's been able
to navigate to India, which is an actually huge.
Speaker 10 (32:32):
Part of the pokem. We puts him in a lot
there and negotiating position.
Speaker 8 (32:36):
And also like, look, the chances of iPhones coming to
the US, we continue to us unrealistic. In last you
want have thirty five hundred our iPhone and Cook's another one,
Like there's an understanding.
Speaker 10 (32:46):
Okay, they might have been laid to the game, but.
Speaker 8 (32:48):
The consumer AI revolution comes to Cooper Tino.
Speaker 10 (32:52):
You'll start to see that next Week WWDC.
Speaker 8 (32:54):
I view that as a very important event that starts
this next chapter.
Speaker 3 (32:58):
Dan, I've of webush some of the biggest price targets
out there, for Tesla and for Apple.
Speaker 2 (33:02):
It's always great to have you on the show. Thank
you very much.
Speaker 3 (33:05):
Coming up, tech has become a major economic driver for
New York's economy, and a new campaign is.
Speaker 2 (33:11):
Celebrating just that.
Speaker 3 (33:12):
We'll have more on the industry's impact and what's expected
from New York Tech Week as a bluembag Technology.
Speaker 2 (33:28):
Time Now for Talking Tech.
Speaker 3 (33:29):
First up Byron Allen, while he's hired Molist to find
buyers for twenty eight local TV stations his company owns
now this comes as an effort to reduce debt is
coming on while taking advantage of potential deregulation in the
broadcast business. In a statement, Alan said, we have received
numerous inquiries. We are going to use this opportunity to
take a serious look at the office. Plus, Meta is
(33:50):
bending on automation for the future of ads. The social
media company aims to enable brands to fully create in
target ads using AI by the end of next year.
Now that's calling to the Wall Street Journal, citing sources
meant as ad platform already offers some AI tools that
can generate variations of existing apps and a bridge AI.
A startup that uses artificial intelligence to transcribe medical conversations,
(34:12):
is raising three hundred million dollars in a new funding
round led by Andrews and Horowitz so All, according to
sources who say that the round values of Pittsburgh based
company are five point three billion including the investments. But
now let's bring it to New York. New York Tech
Week kicks off to day the city. It's meant the
fashion and finance and it's seen a tech boom though
over the past decade, the sector actually made forty one
(34:32):
percent of the city's net job growth since twenty nineteen.
Judy Samuels is presidentcy of Tech NYC is a nonprofit.
You promote the sector in the city, and you have
got a rather coore new campaign we do.
Speaker 6 (34:44):
We're so excited about it.
Speaker 12 (34:45):
We're launching today with support from New York City and
in partnership with Red Antler, a campaign called Obviously New
York And it's really just a moment to celebrate the
amazing growth of the tech industry here to really highlight
all the things that we think are just so going
so well in New York.
Speaker 3 (35:00):
Right now, give us the obvious statistics, give us the
obvious statements of thought that make New York number two
tech sector in the world.
Speaker 12 (35:08):
I mean, listen, I have so many, but just some
that i'd highlight. I think that really underscore what makes
New York so amazing. New York is the number one
destination for college graduates.
Speaker 6 (35:18):
The tech sector here.
Speaker 12 (35:19):
In New York you talked about the forty one percent
figure is responsible for creates ten times the amount of
new jobs in our local economy than ten times.
Speaker 6 (35:28):
More than other industries.
Speaker 12 (35:29):
I find out that's right since the pandemic, since in
the past five years. But that speaks to the growth,
that speaks to the j curve that we're on here that.
Speaker 6 (35:37):
I think is so important.
Speaker 12 (35:38):
You know, it's a seven hundred billion dollar industry, twenty
five thousand startups.
Speaker 6 (35:43):
It's just booming here.
Speaker 12 (35:44):
And it's because, of course, you know, the New York
City is home to every industry, and increasingly technology is
just powering every other industry. And the thing that we
think is happening here that is unique to New York
is that as the technology, especially in this moment where
AI is just booming. You know, all the your entire
(36:04):
intros about all these companies just growing AI building AI.
As the new technology evolves, what happens uniquely here in
New York is companies figure out how to use it,
who's going to pay for it, what it's going to
actually do in practice.
Speaker 6 (36:20):
And that is the New York story.
Speaker 3 (36:22):
So give us some pin ups when you think all
the icons of the New York's stought up scene. I
think cognition AI in many ways from the underlying really
leaps some vounds driving forward the technology when it comes
to coding.
Speaker 2 (36:33):
But where else do we seeing success stories in the.
Speaker 6 (36:35):
AI space in particular?
Speaker 12 (36:36):
Of course, we've got Runway, which is just an amazing
New York story because it marries the creativity that is
inherent to so much that happens in New York City
and the AI side.
Speaker 6 (36:45):
And it's beyond AI.
Speaker 12 (36:47):
Of course, you've got Ramp, which is probably the fastest
growing startup in New York. That's in the fintech space.
We have a ton happening in digital health companies like
Maven and Row. I mean, the list goes on and on.
But again I would underscore that all of those companies
are for the most part, building in uniquely New York industries.
Speaker 3 (37:02):
I love that you keep trying to do this tongue
twister again and again, and you're like nailing it.
Speaker 6 (37:05):
I have a little bit of practice. I have a
little bit of practice.
Speaker 3 (37:09):
But what about why the campaign around it, why this
moment a need to celebrate?
Speaker 12 (37:14):
I think that Listen, there's a couple of things happening here,
and well, first of all, I just think people love
to have fun, people love.
Speaker 6 (37:21):
To celebrate, and right now, New York.
Speaker 12 (37:23):
Is just ascendant when it comes to tech, and we
wanted to kind of put a stamp on that. We
wanted to call it out. We wanted people here to
feel excited. And then we want to go on the
road and remind people just how great the New York
tech ecosystem is.
Speaker 6 (37:36):
Because here's the thing.
Speaker 12 (37:38):
When you meet young people, people of all ages, but
especially young people, they always want to live in New York,
and we need to remind them that you can come
here and build a really dynamic tech career doing that.
Speaker 3 (37:49):
But when I think of the resurgence in San Francisco,
basically generative aice rebral valley, we've covered it time and
time again. Do we need to be either or is
it mutually beneficially seeing companies building talent systems in both places?
Speaker 12 (38:06):
I think, listen, I think you want to see tech
building and growing the economy all over the country. I
think that's incredibly important. I like the way we do
it here in New York. That speaks to me, That's
why I'm here doing this job here. But I think
to your point, we want this to happen on both coasts.
We want this to happen in the middle of the
country as well. I think that's really important. And you know,
we talked about a lot of homegrown New York tech companies,
(38:28):
but open ai is also growing like crazy here and
in really iconic New York building downtown. They're taking more
and more space. So it's going to take all of
these pieces, all of this.
Speaker 3 (38:37):
Input you want, like the quintessential public private partnership, because
you as a normal profit in the middle of bringing
leaders within some of the iconic New York tech sector
into help give advice to the public sector.
Speaker 2 (38:49):
And it goes both ways.
Speaker 3 (38:51):
What is it that the public sector is doing that
helps trikes a really good question.
Speaker 12 (38:54):
So in this instance, The city is putting a significant
amount of money. It's I think four million dollars in
total behind help to bolster the AI ecosystem. Part of
that is helping support our campaign, but that's just a
small part.
Speaker 6 (39:06):
They're doing a lot more.
Speaker 12 (39:07):
They have an AI Nexus program that the city is
putting its money where its mouth is, and we think
that's really important. The state is also doing it's fair share.
We've got a great program here called Empire AI where
we're really empowering academic institutions, giving them access to just
the amazing quantity of compute that's incredibly hard for anyone
outside of the private sector to get. So the state
(39:28):
the city, especially in this instance, are really doubling down
to ensure that New York is a place where people
want to come to build and grow tech companies, but
also where.
Speaker 6 (39:37):
People want to live.
Speaker 3 (39:38):
I'm excited to see the statistics coming out for twenty
twenty five AI job posting surging twenty five thousand in
twenty twenty four New York. J. D. Samuels THEDEO President
of Tech NYC. Go enjoy tech Week. Meanwhile, let's talk
about China because Tom Cruise is Film is back On
top of that Mission Impossible, The Final Reckoning posted the
biggest opening for a US film in the country this
(39:59):
year and twenty five point two million dollars during its
opening weekend, defining trade geopolitical tensions between Washington and Beijing.
Speaker 2 (40:14):
IPO activity.
Speaker 3 (40:15):
In the tech space, it is heating up digital bunking
startup Chime crypto firms Circle both targeting strong offerings. Anthony
Hughes is there to break it all down, and the
way in which we see that there's strength is Circle
being able to sell more shares at a higher price point.
Speaker 13 (40:29):
It seems yes, Circle seems to be going very well.
The IPO is pricing in the middle of this week,
so it actually launched last week. Since that happened, Bitcoin
did come off a bit, but there is certainly a
lot more enthusiasm towards cryptocurrency, of course, particularly in the
last month or so. We also saw coinbase come into
the the S and P five hundred last month, so
(40:50):
that has contributed to a lot of enthusiasm for that
company in particular, which is which is behind stable coins,
and it's a business that some people wondering where it
fits into the scheme of things, whether it's more of
like a payments company, and maybe it might deserve a
bit of a discount to a company like Coinbase, which
has become sort of the premiere sort of stock in
(41:12):
the crypto space, one of the premier stocks anyway.
Speaker 3 (41:16):
Well, what's interesting is that Chime being very much sort
of a retail focused offering in the fintech space, is
it going to tap into retail demand. Is the institutional
demand that makes that also a success story when it
finally comes to the market.
Speaker 13 (41:28):
Well, I think Chime has a really interesting retail story
because it's obviously appealed very much. It's got eight million customers,
and it sells a debit card and a credit card,
and it's been very popular with a certain sort of demographic,
a younger demographic. It actually reminds me a little bit
of the Robin Hood ipo from years ago, from a
few years back, where you know, there's this idea that
perhaps you have attracted a lot of customers, and maybe
(41:50):
it might not necessarily be easy to attract millions and
millions more really quickly like you have in the past.
But you know, when you have these younger customers, you
can grow with them and add on products and stuff
like that, so that'll be one of the real sort
of selling points I guess with the chaime IPO. But
the company does come at a significant down round or
lower evaluation than it was able to attract in twenty
(42:13):
twenty one, when we had very high valuations for all
sorts of tech companies, including fintech and this company, but
also software companies and the like. So we are in
a very different environment from twenty twenty one and we
have to take that into account.
Speaker 2 (42:26):
Hinge Health had that as well.
Speaker 3 (42:28):
Of course, I need to disclose that my husband does
indeed work over at coinbase as well. Anthony Hughes, thank
you very much indeed for joining us. Now that does
it for this edition of Bloombag Technology. Do not forget
to check out our podcast. Find it on the terminal
as well as online on Apple, Spotify, and iHeart This
is a blombag Technology
From the heart of where innovation, money and power collide
in Silicon Valley and beyond. This is Bloomberg Technology with
Caroline Hyde and Ed Ludlow.
Speaker 2 (00:27):
Live from New York.
Speaker 3 (00:28):
This is Bloomberg Technology coming up. Trade tensions they ramp
higher as US and China accused one another of violating
recent agreements.
Speaker 2 (00:36):
If we bring you the tech impact, that's.
Speaker 3 (00:38):
As big tech stocks have actually been back in the
driver's seat, outperforming the S and P five hundred for.
Speaker 2 (00:43):
Eight consecutive weeks.
Speaker 3 (00:44):
But Tesla is under pressure with sales falling aggressively in
France to a three year low.
Speaker 2 (00:50):
Can musks return from.
Speaker 3 (00:52):
Doge turning around for first, let's checking on these markets
which websaw on the day. We were in risk aversion
mode a little bit earlier, and now we tread backwater
to flat. Remember May was a stellar month and the
Nazarck Cup nine percent for the S and P five hundred,
having one of its.
Speaker 2 (01:06):
Best Mays in years.
Speaker 3 (01:09):
But we are up just a tenth of a percent
as we try and shake off what is anxiety around
trade tensions and we get a dose of manufacturing reality.
Is manufacturing numbers come in weak. Looking at the Golden
Dragon Index. This is, of course the NASA Golden Dragon.
Looking at some of the tech giants in China, that
too recovers up a tenth of a percent. Move on
to individual movers because there are some laggards out there,
(01:30):
and notably Tesla has been off today. More broadly, and
we are going to keep a keen eye on what's
happening with two point seven percent to the lower as
we worry about sales in France. We'll dig into that
later in the show. Byd this is the Wrong Taker.
We'll bring you what bid shares have been doing. Their
depository receiats have been basically trading flat, but here we
have it off by about two tenths of a percent.
Speaker 2 (01:49):
Was lower in Chinese trading.
Speaker 3 (01:51):
That as the competition fierce competition is getting some criticism
from the government itself and government related entities. But focusing
more broadly on China, not just the EV sector, We're
going to look at what it has been happening with
the Golden Dragon index. Look, as we say, just recovering,
but after the last three days that has been having
let's call it a plummet following remarks. Now we know
(02:11):
of President Trump saying that Beijing is violated at trade talks.
More pain could be install course, as China issues its
own claims that the US has preached recent deal itself grimgs.
Speaker 2 (02:21):
Mike Shepard joins US.
Speaker 3 (02:22):
Look, the tensative agreements of Switzerland are unwinding themselves somewhat.
Speaker 4 (02:29):
Well, they really are, Cara. We are seeing this datent
that have been achieved in Geneva just a few weeks
ago rapidly fade away. On Friday, we saw President Donald
Trump accuse Beijing of violating the spirit of that understanding
without offering too many specifics, but his trade advisor Jamison
Greer helped fill in the blanks, and the US concerns
(02:51):
seemed to center on what they see as Beijing's failure
to lift barriers on exports of rare earth minerals to
the US quickly enough whatever was discussed in Switzerland. On
the flip side, though, we are seeing China come back
very strong today accusing the US of violating its promises
under that agreement with some recent steps, and we saw
(03:13):
those with the American move to unveil new guidelines that
are coming on AI chip export controls, and that included
a warning to US allies against using Huawei's Ascend chip,
which is a challenge of course to Nvidia. The US
has also moved to restrict exports and sales of chip
design software to China, which is a big deal for
(03:35):
China's own AI and tech ambitions. And then finally the
icing on the cake of course, the revocation of Chinese
student visas. All of those things in China's bill of
goods against the US this morning, and this raises questions
about whether hjion Paying and Donald Trump will actually speak
by phone as Donald Trump has said he would like
to and mind.
Speaker 3 (03:55):
What's so notable is that two of those moves of
the three that you outline completely tech focused. Is it
going to be technology that remains the eye of the
storm when this attack.
Speaker 4 (04:06):
Well, it's either the eye of the storm, Caro, or
the thing that is driving the direction of the storm.
Because remember this comes on top of years of escalating
restrictions on exports to China imposed by the US and
really also twisting allies arms to take part in those
as well. Remember this is not just semiconductor exports, it's
(04:27):
also sales of chip making machinery to Beijing. All of
this is designed to curb China's ambitions in areas like
artificial intelligence, and this is really starting to take a
toll in a way politically between Washington and Beijing, and
we're seeing tech emerge as this flashpoint and could be
what unravels whatever understanding may have emerged engine Even now,
(04:51):
there is a lot of time before the ninety day
pause expires, and the two sides still could find a
way back to the bargaining table and to maybe have
that call between the two leaders. But right now the
direction of travel is not heading in that way, at
least from what we are seeing.
Speaker 3 (05:09):
Caro make Shepherd breaking it down, We thank you, and
let's stick with how markets are reacting, but more broadly,
how they should be thinking about this trade uncertainty. An
expert is Eliza Toovin, managing director at Gano Global. We
turn to your years of advising government, the CIA, and
of course, more broadly the field of enterprise. How bad
is this looking? How much we were turning to escalation now?
Speaker 5 (05:33):
Hi, Caroline, great to be on with you, and I
agree with Michael Shepherd that the honeymoon.
Speaker 2 (05:38):
We saw coming out of Geneva.
Speaker 5 (05:40):
A few weeks ago is now shattered and we're back
in this cycle of escalation between the US and China,
and I agree with you that at the center of
this is technology. What's interesting about China's very strenuous reaction
to the US export controls on the Huawei assnship is
their propaganda apparatus has long been arguing that the US
(06:01):
export controls are ineffective and that China can work around them.
But I think the level of emphasis they're putting on this,
you know, the volume at which they're really screaming for
these things to be removed, indicates just how effective and
how painful they are on China.
Speaker 6 (06:18):
So we're going to be.
Speaker 5 (06:19):
Seeing to see, watch to see how the US reacts
going forward. China is trying to press the US very
hard to make more concessions. After Geneva, the tariffs came
down significantly, but really at the heart of those tensions
were China's export control on rare earth and then the
(06:40):
US export controls on AI chips and related tooling.
Speaker 2 (06:44):
Let's go to.
Speaker 3 (06:45):
AI chips first before we get to rares, because there's
not only the criticism coming from China but some US companies.
I just think of what Jensen Wong was telling our
own ed Ludlow last week how much basically we're forcing
China to innovate, and how he longs to be able
to access that much.
Speaker 2 (07:00):
Do you ever see that happening.
Speaker 5 (07:03):
I think it's all about this scale of compute that's needed.
China can always find workarounds through smuggling, through making some
of their own chips, but it's really all about scaling,
and as you talk about on your show a lot,
really being able to make enough chips to supply the
rapidly escalating demands of compute in this age of AI
(07:25):
is at issue, and that's where the US still has
this very large.
Speaker 2 (07:29):
Lead just being able to scale up.
Speaker 5 (07:31):
So if China is able to extract any additional concessions
from the US so that they can get more chips legally,
that's going to help them kind.
Speaker 2 (07:39):
Of shrink the gap faster.
Speaker 5 (07:42):
However, if the US keeps these export controls in place
and enforces them strictly and gets allies and partners on
board on some of the tooling, some of the aspects
where countries like Japan and the Netherlands and Germany are strong,
then this gap between the US and China compute stance
to lengthen over the coming months and years.
Speaker 3 (08:03):
But both sides have chips on the table here that
they can play, and play hard. I was just at
the Reagan National Economic Forum on Friday where there was
a lot of anxiety just how confident Chinese leadership is
at the moment that they too can fight back. Liza,
what about the rare earth's signals? How much pain could
that levee on US industry itself as well?
Speaker 5 (08:24):
We know that the auto manufacturers and the defense manufacturers
were they came crying to the US government before the
Geneva talks and said that these things are starting to
impose pain and in starting to impose work stoppages, and
that's something.
Speaker 2 (08:42):
That it's a gray rhino.
Speaker 5 (08:44):
I mean, the US national security establishment has known about
this dependency on China for rare earth processing for years,
but they haven't come up.
Speaker 2 (08:53):
With a solution at scale. But I think what was.
Speaker 5 (08:56):
Interesting over the last month is that China has broken
the glass on actually using this coercive instrument. It's actually
now ratcheting up pressure it. Shei Jinping has an appetite
for leverage, and now that he knows he has this
leverage over the US you're going to see him pushing
again and again to kind of recycle this leverage and
(09:17):
try to extract more concessions from the US. But rather
than bending over and giving China more concessions, over the
last couple of weeks, you've seen them doubling down with
this empowered Commerce department, strengthening and broadening the export controls.
Speaker 3 (09:35):
So you don't expect the US to blink in this moment.
What advice do you give to the private sect right
now as to how tough this could get for access
to RAS and indeed, in the flip side of you're
a Chinese company access to US chips.
Speaker 5 (09:51):
Well, I think that the private sector needs to remember
that this isn't just a competition about tech and trade,
I mean tariffs and technolog The export controls, of course,
are incredibly important to markets, but perhaps even more important
is to watch the geopolitical tensions that are unfolding in
the Indo Pacific around Taiwan in the South China Sea.
(10:13):
Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, just on Saturday at the
Shangri Law Forum was warning that a Taiwan crisis could
be imminent, and we know that China frequently has military
drills kind of these practice exercises around Taiwan and in
the South China Sea, and it's had the habit lately
of not announcing these in advance, so it's not giving
(10:35):
markets heads up that these are going to happen.
Speaker 2 (10:38):
Why does it do that.
Speaker 5 (10:39):
It wants to preserve ambiguity if outside observers aren't sure
if this is just a drill or if it's something
more an actual rehearsal for something like a blockade. That's
very worrisome because it shrinks the window of warning. And
that's something that we're watching very closely at Garno Global
kind of the links between these technology export controls terrors
(11:03):
and the potential for some kind of supply chain disrupting
crisis around Taiwan that could prevent the chips from getting
out of Taiwan, perhaps for a couple of weeks or longer.
Speaker 3 (11:14):
Well, that's crucial to our audience, So thanks for making
that link. Visitobin of course, managing director at Garno Global.
Great to have some time with you. Coming up, let's
talk about chips more. But Broadcomm's results this week, they're
likely to actually show ai demand is still booming. We
can talk about what's expected, how it could impact the
wider market. This is bloombag technology. Let's talk about how
(11:43):
the same tech giants that contributed to the S and
P five pounders decline in April, they are now driving
the recovery in US equities. Just taking video and put
a bow on a better than expected earning season for
big tech last week by delivering a strong outlook for
revenue despite US restrictions on sales of its to China.
Speaker 2 (12:01):
This is as we expect.
Speaker 3 (12:02):
Earning some Braolcom this week, you see the shares are
also trading higher.
Speaker 2 (12:05):
Lue Meg's run.
Speaker 3 (12:06):
Bastantaker has been writing about how the Magnificent Seven in
particular have helped bounce back of our lows some phenomenal
recovery numbers.
Speaker 7 (12:16):
Hey, thanks for having me. So this earning season was
a real test for big tech, especially given just how
uncertain the backdrop has become, given tariffs, given all sorts
of geopolitical tensions, given concerns about AI spending in the
ROI from AI, and I would say that broadly speaking,
this group passed with flying colors. I'd say the notable
exception was Apple, which is dealing with a number of
(12:37):
its own sort of idiosyncratic issues. But the major companies
like Microsoft, Nvidia, Meta Alphabet quite strong across the board,
showing pretty positive trends.
Speaker 6 (12:47):
And these are all companies.
Speaker 7 (12:48):
That have allowed the market to really recover off the
low that we saw early in April.
Speaker 3 (12:53):
It's interesting that we're not back to our record highs.
We're actually inching in on them.
Speaker 8 (12:57):
Ryan.
Speaker 3 (12:57):
Meanwhile, looking at the S and P five hundred, the
valuation story, that's starting to get a little dicey, right
when you're looking at magnificent seven names.
Speaker 7 (13:05):
Yeah, so I'd say these names got pretty cheap by
a lot of metrics in the whole tear off cell
off in early April. They have come back quite dramatically,
I think in videos up something like forty five percent
or so since that low. So these are pretty remarkable
gains and it has come back in the valuation. But
I would say sort of the countering argument to this
is growth is expected to remain pretty strong for a
lot of these companies, and if you look at something
(13:27):
like the PEG ratio, they are all treating at fairly
modest ratios on that metric. So the valuations have come
back some but the growth that was just affirmed in
these most recent reports also pretty positive.
Speaker 3 (13:39):
We're looking at the moment of how pricey perhaps they
are from a price to forward looking earnings perspective at
least Umeg's ran for Selca.
Speaker 2 (13:48):
It's great to have you on as always.
Speaker 3 (13:49):
Let's get you even more of a take here and
particularly on AI demand what it means for certain companies
about to give us their numbers. Angelo Zeno's with us
VPN senior equity analyst over at CFRA Research. We think,
think about how in Nvidia helped the market recover. We
saw the numbers looking good. What about Broadcom as well?
We're still going to get AI optimism there.
Speaker 9 (14:08):
Yeah, so thanks for having me, Caroline, and I think, yeah,
to your point, I think it's going to be very strong.
We're looking for top line growth of about twenty percent
here for the for the April quarter. And listen, I
think when you kind of look overall the trends that
we've seen here over the last couple couple of weeks
or you know, since Q one earning season really starting
with you know, Alphabet and Microsoft at the start of
(14:30):
earning season up until in video last week, the trend
on the compute side of things is I think much
stronger than anybody had anticipated, and really something that Gentsen
Wong last year, really last week really pounded the table on.
So when you kind of think about the drivers here
specifically for you know, the AI semi names here, over
(14:51):
the next couple of years, it really is going to
be tied to compute and the higher demand for computer
is going to drive higher capital spending plans, right, which
is what we saw Q one earning season. So we
think those trends remain intact here. For broadcams specifically, they've
got to buy a sixty forty split in semis versus software,
So the semi side will continue to drive that demand.
(15:12):
But software shouldn't be ignored because the profitability there and
growth continues to be very good.
Speaker 3 (15:18):
I mean, we're expecting strong things from broad Comm you too.
Look your top semi conductive names are in Video and Broadcom, AMD, Marvell.
I'm looking at how much some of those names have
already driven the S and P five hundred recovery. A
great chart from Ryan's story is that in Vidio makes
up twelve percent. Basically, the S and P five hundred
is rebound since April, but swiftly after them was Microsoft
that you named as being a winner of late broadcom
(15:41):
some five percent.
Speaker 2 (15:42):
But is the valuation getting a little too.
Speaker 3 (15:44):
Rich now given the amount of geopolitical anxiety we're just
talking about with Eliza Tobin.
Speaker 9 (15:50):
Yeah, I mean, I think as far as the valuation
is concerned, you know, it's it's not as attractive as
it was four to six weeks ago. But I will
tell you that the valuations has just got you know,
just hit you know, basement level values. I mean, you
were talking about Nvidia at one point trading about seventeen
eighteen times on our twenty twenty six estimate.
Speaker 10 (16:08):
They're now try closer.
Speaker 9 (16:10):
To about twenty four to twenty five times on twenty
twenty six expectations. And I will tell you this, the
visibility again is improving here has improved of the last
couple of weeks, whether it be on the trade side
of things, improving commentary on trade, or whether it be
you know, just from the reiteration in terms of capex
spens plans for some of these hyperscalers. Now, I will say,
(16:32):
as far as you know what to look out for
here on the geopolitical side of things, A lot is
going There are a lot of moving parts here. Over
the next couple of weeks, obviously we want to hear
about the US China discussions. But as far as semis
are pincerned, there's a two thirty two semiconductor investigation that
is ongoing right now. We expect to get more clarity
in terms of what is what that's going to look
(16:53):
like as far as tariffs are concerned here over the
next two months or so. So it's waiting simo. But
our view you're going to see a permanent tariff on
the semiconductor industry when that gets unveiled. Our base case
right now is about a twenty five percent tariff.
Speaker 3 (17:08):
What about the smartphone industry, because actually Apple has contributed
to the reprieve and the S and P five hundred,
it's one of your top names for hardware. But boy,
we're wondering whether it's going to get individual tariffs of
twenty five percent landed on it, not to mention maybe
Samsung gets the same though.
Speaker 9 (17:24):
Yeah, so you know, we're not looking for an individual
tariff on that side of things. But our view here
is they you know, they fall under the national security
umbre umbrella of the two thirty two semiconductor investigation, similar
to many other hardware names that are right now exempt from.
Speaker 10 (17:39):
A lot of the tariffs.
Speaker 9 (17:41):
But that said, if we're assuming something along the lines
of a twenty five percent, you know, based tariff or
two thirty two, that would imply that Apple probably has
to increase the price of its iPhone seventeen this fall.
Our view is probably along the lines of at least
fifty dollars or so. So again, we have to wait
see to see how all this stuff really plays itself
(18:02):
out on the geopolitical side of things, But our view
is there's going to be some sort of permanent tariff
that goes into effect for the hardware companies and specifically Apple,
and Apple we think is best positioned to offset some
of those higher tariffs because of their brand recognition and
because of their pricing power.
Speaker 3 (18:19):
So angelo, if an investor doesn't have the exposure they'd
like in these names, should they buy at this point?
Speaker 9 (18:27):
I mean, I think that's a good question. You know,
we look at it right now in the sense that
we're looking more for a near term, you know, digestion period.
The dangerous thing with that is you just don't know
what you're going to get in a day in, day
out basis because of the geopolitical environment right now. So
if you don't own any of these names right now,
our view is you do want to buy some of
(18:47):
these AI semi oriented names because they.
Speaker 10 (18:50):
Are going to really drive the.
Speaker 9 (18:52):
Earnings potential for the tech sector here over the next
two to three years, specifically Nvidia and Broadcom, as well
as some of the others smaller names, but Nvidia and
Broadcom would kind of be two of the top names
with the best visibility out there. And even if you
see some of these negative headwinds will whether it be
tied to the two thirty two semi conductor investigation or
something on the trade side of things. Ultimately we think
(19:14):
this stuff works itself out and the earnings potential is
so great that you know, two to three years down
the road, these stocks should be significantly higher than where.
Speaker 10 (19:21):
They are now.
Speaker 2 (19:22):
We get those earnings for Broadcom.
Speaker 3 (19:23):
On Thursday after the bell, Angelo Zino a busy week
ahead cfr A Research.
Speaker 2 (19:27):
We thank you.
Speaker 3 (19:35):
Samsung well, it's nearing a wide ranging deal to invest
in Perplexity AI and put search technology from the AI
startup at the very forefront of the South Korean company's devices.
It's according to people familiar, the two companies are already
in talks to pre load Perplexities app and Assistant on
upcoming Samsung devices who like Seth Figeman joins us for
more on the story, and we knew that they struck
(19:57):
the still with Motorola Samsung ongoing conversation. How deeply into
twine will they become?
Speaker 11 (20:02):
Yeah, I think this is even more expensive than Mogo Motorola.
It's about them being preloaded on devices, which matters a lot,
But with Samsung, it's also integrating into its assystem, product,
into its browser, and of course just preloading on Samsung devices. Generally,
if you're Google right now, I think if they're setting
up a little bit straighter right now, there's a big
difference between being preloaded and the default service, which is
(20:23):
what Google has paid for for years and quite expensively.
But this is a step in that direction, and given
the anti trust scrutiny on Google, I would be a
little bit concerned.
Speaker 3 (20:31):
I mean, of course that anti trust discussion of what
ultimately might be the policies they have to enact to
appease the judge.
Speaker 2 (20:39):
I mean that wrapped up on Friday.
Speaker 3 (20:40):
Analysts are deeply concerned about what all of this means
for alphabet How much does this also depend on Perplexity
getting some money from Samsung.
Speaker 11 (20:49):
Yeah, I think that's part of the broader tie up here.
So we have previously reported that Perplexity is close to
raising about five hundred million dollars like a fourteen billion
dollar valuation. Samsung could be one of the larger investors
in that deal, and that strikes as part of a
much larger tie up between these two companies.
Speaker 3 (21:03):
How does that fourteen billion dollars stack up? Because like
we've become some numb to these.
Speaker 2 (21:07):
Figures because it's the enormous over to open hahard.
Speaker 11 (21:10):
It's one of the largest AI players out there right now,
but it's still this is a really competitive environment. Not
only are they going up against Google, but going up
against open ai and others who are moving into real
time search but being more deeply intrigated into devices than
millions of people use. That is a really big leg
up in that race.
Speaker 3 (21:24):
And people who loved Perplexity in many ways it is
one of the first that offered you where the information
was coming from but they've had their own copyright issues.
Speaker 6 (21:30):
As well, Right, that's true.
Speaker 11 (21:31):
I think Perplexity's main thing that was that they have
great design. You know, it's not so much that they
built a better model than Opennie are Google, but they
figure out how to package it in a really compelling way.
That seems to be drawing fans not just from consumers
but from the hardware companies.
Speaker 2 (21:43):
How soon could this all be announced?
Speaker 11 (21:45):
As soon as this year for devices?
Speaker 6 (21:46):
Maybe into next year?
Speaker 2 (21:47):
Okay, we'll keep an eye out for the unfolding events.
Speaker 3 (21:50):
Seth Nigaman, We appreciate it. Welcome back to BlueBag Technology
and Karen Hydeer New York. A quick check on these markets,
because boy May was Estella month for the NASTAG.
Speaker 2 (22:05):
Today we bounce off of our lows, but the anxiety remains.
What about the pulling back from.
Speaker 3 (22:11):
China and the US in terms of those tentative agreements
made in Switzerland, The progress seems to be on the line.
Many are worrying about that at the moment. Dig into
some of the names. I want to shine light on
one Chinese EV player. Of course, we've got to keep
an iron byd It's depository receipts doing better than they
did trade in Hong Kong at least, but under pressure
is indeed, the Chinese government tries to hint at byd
(22:31):
that you're competing too hard in our country, you're racing
to the border in bottom in terms of price, or
to boost your numbers.
Speaker 2 (22:38):
Will they pull back a little bit from that?
Speaker 3 (22:40):
But Tesla of by three percent, this is the numbers
are woeful for sales in May. In France they're done
sixty seven percent, just seven hundred and twenty.
Speaker 2 (22:48):
One cars in the whole of France.
Speaker 3 (22:51):
All of this comes though, as Elon Musk officially departs
the White House after running those over there, at least
as many would say he was running it where Bush Securities,
managing direct to Dan I is writing this weekend that
this is quote music to the ears of Tesla shareholders.
With a crucial few months ahead, Dan Eyes joins us now,
and boy, those French numbers really show what the crucial
(23:12):
few months mean.
Speaker 2 (23:13):
Can Elon steer this the other way?
Speaker 10 (23:17):
Okay?
Speaker 8 (23:17):
I mean, obviously the leader's back, right, I mean, Musk
is Tesla Tesla's Musk. But I believe it's really about
autonomous and I think as we go into Austin in June,
you go into the robotics future, that's going to be
keep part of the value of Tesla's how we get
to a two.
Speaker 10 (23:33):
Trillion dollar valuation. But and you'll quit Europe.
Speaker 8 (23:37):
You look at us Juku at China and I think
Musk is going to start to turn that around.
Speaker 10 (23:41):
And I think that's where investors are starting to factor
in you.
Speaker 8 (23:45):
And I'm gonna say, what's happened next month or two,
But a rebound second half of the year.
Speaker 3 (23:49):
Okay, so stomach for the near term. These probably remaining
poor numbers. The new refreshed model. Why isn't cutting it?
It seems it is more the political backlash. But you say,
ultimately the technology is going to outweigh a brand issue
that they've had.
Speaker 8 (24:05):
Yeah, I mean, look me, and you've talked about it before.
I believe ninety percent of the future value is autonomous
and robotics. BI look in terms of margins delivery growth,
that's obviously very important to near turn numbers, but I
do believe streets factoring, and you start to see a
rebound second half of the year, you ever recommitted mass.
Speaker 10 (24:25):
Queerly and I think when you look to the future, I.
Speaker 8 (24:28):
Mean this long with Nvidio, I believe the most disruptive
technology companies in the world. And then who's driving the
software piece of course it's pound tier.
Speaker 3 (24:38):
But why is Tesla clearly going to be such a
leadership in autonomous when Weimo is already busy doing it
And there is a different difference in the technology here
with Weimo going all in on lidar and a very
different tactic coming from elon Musk and Tesla.
Speaker 10 (24:53):
Yeah, look, Willim will clearly head start. I think Wimo
they're going to be at the.
Speaker 8 (24:57):
Kids table relatively Cassela in the com years because of
the scale and scope.
Speaker 10 (25:02):
Waymos in four cities, two hundred thirty thousand hour cars.
Speaker 8 (25:05):
Like in other words, when I work out over the
coming years, I think you, look, this is going to
be dominated by Tesla in terms of cyber cabs.
Speaker 10 (25:14):
It all starts.
Speaker 8 (25:15):
Obviously in the next few weeks in Austin, but no
one will match the global scale and scope of Musk
and Tesla.
Speaker 3 (25:23):
So what milestones in Austin, for example, do they need
to meet? Ed Ludlow with that great reporting out last
week that June twelfth is going to be the date
we're anticipating for it to already make actionable what they've
been trialing on the roads thus far. What do they
need to meet, how do they need to show off
in the technology to work?
Speaker 8 (25:41):
Look the interventions, right, I mean, just showing that this
is something that is ready for prime time, because this
is just the beginning of ultimately going to be fifteen
to twenty twenty five cities over the next year. And
I think this is just really kind of way in
the ground from technology perspective, showing where a Tesla is
going to get to them when I believe, look, Weimo
(26:03):
is going to be successful and that's going to be
a key sort of player. But in terms of the
global vision, who's really going to dominate? I believe it's
Tesla and autonomous.
Speaker 2 (26:12):
And is it a cybercab that dominates?
Speaker 3 (26:15):
Is it the fact that the Tesla's are already out
on the road and they become the autonomous vehicles they
are the ones that we don't use ourselves but lend
out to the ecosystem.
Speaker 10 (26:23):
Well, yeah, I mean it's first of all, it's data driven.
I mean, by next sure you have ten.
Speaker 8 (26:26):
Million vehicles, you know, in terms of teslas that have
been sold data driven, and but I do believe cybercabs
when you think about the autonomous piece, that's going to
be so important.
Speaker 10 (26:38):
But then also it's about FSD.
Speaker 8 (26:40):
I mean FSD penetration could go from fifteen percent to
fifty percent. Think about the margin, the software, the uplift
that that's going to lead to test and that's why
I believe they are going into their biggest chapter of growth.
Speaker 10 (26:53):
And that's why also it's just.
Speaker 8 (26:54):
So important that must laser focus on Tesla on those
days in Trump White House hour rearview mirror.
Speaker 3 (27:01):
And you think he will be laser focused on Tesla
because he's also saying I've got to be laser focused
on X. He's also remaining very committed and focused on
SpaceX as well, and not to mention the XAI getting
woven into X at the moment.
Speaker 8 (27:14):
Look, it's all part of it, obviously, the broader mask ecosystem,
but the hearts and lungs, the golden goose continues to
be Tesla, and I think must recognize is now is
the time, especially given autonomous and robiotics without actually with optimists.
Speaker 3 (27:31):
Tell us the two trillion dollar valuation and how you
actually got there.
Speaker 2 (27:35):
From a number's perspective.
Speaker 8 (27:37):
Look when I look at when I look at autonomous
and you start to model out what could maybe twenty
percent of vehicles being autonomous, you're essentially looking three four
hours of earnings eventually is going to be thirteen to
fifteen hours earnings. So the whole math of the Tesla
valuation is going to drastically change.
Speaker 10 (27:56):
And that's all about, like I believe, from an AI.
Speaker 8 (27:59):
Perspective, one of probably the most undervalued pure players in
the market is Tesla.
Speaker 10 (28:04):
Now, of course Nvidia, poun Teer.
Speaker 8 (28:06):
You know how the hyperscalers, Microsoft and others continue to
front and center.
Speaker 10 (28:10):
But you know, Tesla more and more is going to
prove that when you especially in.
Speaker 8 (28:14):
The physical AI play in terms of our time as robotics,
they're gonna be front and center.
Speaker 3 (28:20):
At the moment, it's a one trillion dollar market capitalization,
How quickly does this two trillion become a reality?
Speaker 10 (28:28):
I think next twelve to eighteen months, and I look
and I think.
Speaker 2 (28:31):
That's going to double in that amount of time.
Speaker 8 (28:33):
That's our view, and I think it could be conservative
relative to as is all plays out, because I think
again again, Musk and Tesla underestimated. Next week you're buying
you know called you know, wait next week and when
this actually the vision starts, it's going.
Speaker 10 (28:50):
To kick off. I think it's the golden age at Tesla.
Speaker 3 (28:54):
You are the highest price target five hundred, few bone
securities below you four seventy, but the price targets go
all all the way down to just I mean JP
Morgan on one hundred and fifteen. So from what is
it that others aren't getting here? Is it just the
scale of the ambition, is it the execution? What is
it when you're sitting around the table with other analysts
(29:15):
and they're like no, Dan, and you're like no.
Speaker 10 (29:17):
Yes, well yeah, I mean to that point.
Speaker 8 (29:20):
I mean if you go back over the last five, seven,
eight years and the Neva underestimated tassa musk every time, right,
So I mean many thought that the chance of them
actually coming out with an EV was unrealistic, the chance
of them scaling to over a million vehicles, so we're
just again again. I think they continue to view this
as an automobile company. It's a disruptive technology player, one
(29:42):
of the best in the world along with Nvidian.
Speaker 10 (29:45):
Of course, Pound.
Speaker 3 (29:46):
Tier Therefore we're looking forward to the global story here.
Speaker 2 (29:52):
Does this have to be executed in the US?
Speaker 3 (29:54):
What about over in China at the moment where we're
just seeing the level of price competition and indeed the
commitment that we're starting see from BYD also into autonomous.
Speaker 10 (30:03):
Look, China is a key market.
Speaker 8 (30:04):
I mean, you're over forty percent of deliveries that come
out of trying to keep up from a supply perspective.
Speaker 10 (30:10):
But it's also why too, It's it's.
Speaker 8 (30:11):
Important more and more must that he distanced himself in
terms of from Trump White House. Now start to play
that ten percent politician ninety percent CEO.
Speaker 10 (30:20):
You know what we see from Apple China is.
Speaker 8 (30:23):
Key and I think we're going to continue to see
now rebound China and Autonomous Test is going to be
a major player in that market along with BYD and others.
Speaker 3 (30:32):
And then let's talk robotics, because I'm hearing more and
more about how robotics is going to be the next
area of key growth. How quickly does the optimist become
the two trellion dollar driver.
Speaker 8 (30:43):
And remember we're not even really factoring that in so
it speaks to our view like when you look at
optimists and as that plays out, robotics potential could even be.
Speaker 10 (30:52):
Bigger than autonomous And.
Speaker 8 (30:54):
I think when it comes to physical AI, it's Tesla
and a Video that are leading that. And I think
is that all this is going to get in the
next twelve, eighteen, twenty four months.
Speaker 10 (31:05):
It's the reality, right.
Speaker 8 (31:06):
The scale and scope is something that tests has a
huge advantage of. And that's why I think optimist is
something that again I think investors Wall Street massively underestimating,
but they will be proven wrong.
Speaker 10 (31:19):
I think as this all plays out, how much.
Speaker 3 (31:21):
Is supply chain going to be a bottleneck kit because
we keep talking time and time again about the rare
earth control that China has. I mean, the fact that
Tesla is so present in China from a supply side perspective,
is that a winning formula?
Speaker 10 (31:34):
Oh?
Speaker 8 (31:34):
With that, I mean used now that I think that's
the key, right, Like having such a big presence, and
of course Musk has very good relationship in Beijing, you know,
in terms of their footprint, that is very important.
Speaker 10 (31:46):
It gives them a huge advantage.
Speaker 8 (31:48):
And also I think it speaks to the timing, especially
in this US China negotiations to further and further must
distance themselves from Trump in the White House. I think
is important, especially when it plays to what's happened China.
Speaker 3 (32:01):
I'm going to end on Apple because you were just
talking about other companies that have been owning the space
Palanteer of course being one that you keep mentioning within software.
Speaker 2 (32:09):
But what about the future of.
Speaker 3 (32:10):
Apple right now from a supply chain perspective, from a
geopolitical perspective, because it seems as though, well Tim Cook
needs to be a little bit more politician right now too.
Speaker 8 (32:20):
Yeah, I think there's no better CEO in the world
that can navigate it.
Speaker 2 (32:23):
He's not gone very well so far, I see.
Speaker 8 (32:26):
I would disagree to the point that he's been able
to navigate to India, which is an actually huge.
Speaker 10 (32:32):
Part of the pokem. We puts him in a lot
there and negotiating position.
Speaker 8 (32:36):
And also like, look, the chances of iPhones coming to
the US, we continue to us unrealistic. In last you
want have thirty five hundred our iPhone and Cook's another one,
Like there's an understanding.
Speaker 10 (32:46):
Okay, they might have been laid to the game, but.
Speaker 8 (32:48):
The consumer AI revolution comes to Cooper Tino.
Speaker 10 (32:52):
You'll start to see that next Week WWDC.
Speaker 8 (32:54):
I view that as a very important event that starts
this next chapter.
Speaker 3 (32:58):
Dan, I've of webush some of the biggest price targets
out there, for Tesla and for Apple.
Speaker 2 (33:02):
It's always great to have you on the show. Thank
you very much.
Speaker 3 (33:05):
Coming up, tech has become a major economic driver for
New York's economy, and a new campaign is.
Speaker 2 (33:11):
Celebrating just that.
Speaker 3 (33:12):
We'll have more on the industry's impact and what's expected
from New York Tech Week as a bluembag Technology.
Speaker 2 (33:28):
Time Now for Talking Tech.
Speaker 3 (33:29):
First up Byron Allen, while he's hired Molist to find
buyers for twenty eight local TV stations his company owns
now this comes as an effort to reduce debt is
coming on while taking advantage of potential deregulation in the
broadcast business. In a statement, Alan said, we have received
numerous inquiries. We are going to use this opportunity to
take a serious look at the office. Plus, Meta is
(33:50):
bending on automation for the future of ads. The social
media company aims to enable brands to fully create in
target ads using AI by the end of next year.
Now that's calling to the Wall Street Journal, citing sources
meant as ad platform already offers some AI tools that
can generate variations of existing apps and a bridge AI.
A startup that uses artificial intelligence to transcribe medical conversations,
(34:12):
is raising three hundred million dollars in a new funding
round led by Andrews and Horowitz so All, according to
sources who say that the round values of Pittsburgh based
company are five point three billion including the investments. But
now let's bring it to New York. New York Tech
Week kicks off to day the city. It's meant the
fashion and finance and it's seen a tech boom though
over the past decade, the sector actually made forty one
(34:32):
percent of the city's net job growth since twenty nineteen.
Judy Samuels is presidentcy of Tech NYC is a nonprofit.
You promote the sector in the city, and you have
got a rather coore new campaign we do.
Speaker 6 (34:44):
We're so excited about it.
Speaker 12 (34:45):
We're launching today with support from New York City and
in partnership with Red Antler, a campaign called Obviously New
York And it's really just a moment to celebrate the
amazing growth of the tech industry here to really highlight
all the things that we think are just so going
so well in New York.
Speaker 3 (35:00):
Right now, give us the obvious statistics, give us the
obvious statements of thought that make New York number two
tech sector in the world.
Speaker 12 (35:08):
I mean, listen, I have so many, but just some
that i'd highlight. I think that really underscore what makes
New York so amazing. New York is the number one
destination for college graduates.
Speaker 6 (35:18):
The tech sector here.
Speaker 12 (35:19):
In New York you talked about the forty one percent
figure is responsible for creates ten times the amount of
new jobs in our local economy than ten times.
Speaker 6 (35:28):
More than other industries.
Speaker 12 (35:29):
I find out that's right since the pandemic, since in
the past five years. But that speaks to the growth,
that speaks to the j curve that we're on here that.
Speaker 6 (35:37):
I think is so important.
Speaker 12 (35:38):
You know, it's a seven hundred billion dollar industry, twenty
five thousand startups.
Speaker 6 (35:43):
It's just booming here.
Speaker 12 (35:44):
And it's because, of course, you know, the New York
City is home to every industry, and increasingly technology is
just powering every other industry. And the thing that we
think is happening here that is unique to New York
is that as the technology, especially in this moment where
AI is just booming. You know, all the your entire
(36:04):
intros about all these companies just growing AI building AI.
As the new technology evolves, what happens uniquely here in
New York is companies figure out how to use it,
who's going to pay for it, what it's going to
actually do in practice.
Speaker 6 (36:20):
And that is the New York story.
Speaker 3 (36:22):
So give us some pin ups when you think all
the icons of the New York's stought up scene. I
think cognition AI in many ways from the underlying really
leaps some vounds driving forward the technology when it comes
to coding.
Speaker 2 (36:33):
But where else do we seeing success stories in the.
Speaker 6 (36:35):
AI space in particular?
Speaker 12 (36:36):
Of course, we've got Runway, which is just an amazing
New York story because it marries the creativity that is
inherent to so much that happens in New York City
and the AI side.
Speaker 6 (36:45):
And it's beyond AI.
Speaker 12 (36:47):
Of course, you've got Ramp, which is probably the fastest
growing startup in New York. That's in the fintech space.
We have a ton happening in digital health companies like
Maven and Row. I mean, the list goes on and on.
But again I would underscore that all of those companies
are for the most part, building in uniquely New York industries.
Speaker 3 (37:02):
I love that you keep trying to do this tongue
twister again and again, and you're like nailing it.
Speaker 6 (37:05):
I have a little bit of practice. I have a
little bit of practice.
Speaker 3 (37:09):
But what about why the campaign around it, why this
moment a need to celebrate?
Speaker 12 (37:14):
I think that Listen, there's a couple of things happening here,
and well, first of all, I just think people love
to have fun, people love.
Speaker 6 (37:21):
To celebrate, and right now, New York.
Speaker 12 (37:23):
Is just ascendant when it comes to tech, and we
wanted to kind of put a stamp on that. We
wanted to call it out. We wanted people here to
feel excited. And then we want to go on the
road and remind people just how great the New York
tech ecosystem is.
Speaker 6 (37:36):
Because here's the thing.
Speaker 12 (37:38):
When you meet young people, people of all ages, but
especially young people, they always want to live in New York,
and we need to remind them that you can come
here and build a really dynamic tech career doing that.
Speaker 3 (37:49):
But when I think of the resurgence in San Francisco,
basically generative aice rebral valley, we've covered it time and
time again. Do we need to be either or is
it mutually beneficially seeing companies building talent systems in both places?
Speaker 12 (38:06):
I think, listen, I think you want to see tech
building and growing the economy all over the country. I
think that's incredibly important. I like the way we do
it here in New York. That speaks to me, That's
why I'm here doing this job here. But I think
to your point, we want this to happen on both coasts.
We want this to happen in the middle of the
country as well. I think that's really important. And you know,
we talked about a lot of homegrown New York tech companies,
(38:28):
but open ai is also growing like crazy here and
in really iconic New York building downtown. They're taking more
and more space. So it's going to take all of
these pieces, all of this.
Speaker 3 (38:37):
Input you want, like the quintessential public private partnership, because
you as a normal profit in the middle of bringing
leaders within some of the iconic New York tech sector
into help give advice to the public sector.
Speaker 2 (38:49):
And it goes both ways.
Speaker 3 (38:51):
What is it that the public sector is doing that
helps trikes a really good question.
Speaker 12 (38:54):
So in this instance, The city is putting a significant
amount of money. It's I think four million dollars in
total behind help to bolster the AI ecosystem. Part of
that is helping support our campaign, but that's just a
small part.
Speaker 6 (39:06):
They're doing a lot more.
Speaker 12 (39:07):
They have an AI Nexus program that the city is
putting its money where its mouth is, and we think
that's really important. The state is also doing it's fair share.
We've got a great program here called Empire AI where
we're really empowering academic institutions, giving them access to just
the amazing quantity of compute that's incredibly hard for anyone
outside of the private sector to get. So the state
(39:28):
the city, especially in this instance, are really doubling down
to ensure that New York is a place where people
want to come to build and grow tech companies, but
also where.
Speaker 6 (39:37):
People want to live.
Speaker 3 (39:38):
I'm excited to see the statistics coming out for twenty
twenty five AI job posting surging twenty five thousand in
twenty twenty four New York. J. D. Samuels THEDEO President
of Tech NYC. Go enjoy tech Week. Meanwhile, let's talk
about China because Tom Cruise is Film is back On
top of that Mission Impossible, The Final Reckoning posted the
biggest opening for a US film in the country this
(39:59):
year and twenty five point two million dollars during its
opening weekend, defining trade geopolitical tensions between Washington and Beijing.
Speaker 2 (40:14):
IPO activity.
Speaker 3 (40:15):
In the tech space, it is heating up digital bunking
startup Chime crypto firms Circle both targeting strong offerings. Anthony
Hughes is there to break it all down, and the
way in which we see that there's strength is Circle
being able to sell more shares at a higher price point.
Speaker 13 (40:29):
It seems yes, Circle seems to be going very well.
The IPO is pricing in the middle of this week,
so it actually launched last week. Since that happened, Bitcoin
did come off a bit, but there is certainly a
lot more enthusiasm towards cryptocurrency, of course, particularly in the
last month or so. We also saw coinbase come into
the the S and P five hundred last month, so
(40:50):
that has contributed to a lot of enthusiasm for that
company in particular, which is which is behind stable coins,
and it's a business that some people wondering where it
fits into the scheme of things, whether it's more of
like a payments company, and maybe it might deserve a
bit of a discount to a company like Coinbase, which
has become sort of the premiere sort of stock in
(41:12):
the crypto space, one of the premier stocks anyway.
Speaker 3 (41:16):
Well, what's interesting is that Chime being very much sort
of a retail focused offering in the fintech space, is
it going to tap into retail demand. Is the institutional
demand that makes that also a success story when it
finally comes to the market.
Speaker 13 (41:28):
Well, I think Chime has a really interesting retail story
because it's obviously appealed very much. It's got eight million customers,
and it sells a debit card and a credit card,
and it's been very popular with a certain sort of demographic,
a younger demographic. It actually reminds me a little bit
of the Robin Hood ipo from years ago, from a
few years back, where you know, there's this idea that
perhaps you have attracted a lot of customers, and maybe
(41:50):
it might not necessarily be easy to attract millions and
millions more really quickly like you have in the past.
But you know, when you have these younger customers, you
can grow with them and add on products and stuff
like that, so that'll be one of the real sort
of selling points I guess with the chaime IPO. But
the company does come at a significant down round or
lower evaluation than it was able to attract in twenty
(42:13):
twenty one, when we had very high valuations for all
sorts of tech companies, including fintech and this company, but
also software companies and the like. So we are in
a very different environment from twenty twenty one and we
have to take that into account.
Speaker 2 (42:26):
Hinge Health had that as well.
Speaker 3 (42:28):
Of course, I need to disclose that my husband does
indeed work over at coinbase as well. Anthony Hughes, thank
you very much indeed for joining us. Now that does
it for this edition of Bloombag Technology. Do not forget
to check out our podcast. Find it on the terminal
as well as online on Apple, Spotify, and iHeart This
is a blombag Technology
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