July 11, 2025 • 14 mins
Keir Starmer secured a “one in, one out” migrant-return deal with Emmanuel Macron at the end of the first state visit from a French leader in more than 15 years. The Prime Minister is hoping he can prove his self-styled methodical, pragmatic approach works and can fix an issue which looms large in British politics. But there is much more to this visit. We discuss with our foreign policy and defence correspondent Ellen Milligan and Bloomberg Opinion Columnist in Paris, Lionel Laurent. Hosted by Stephen Carroll and Caroline Hepker.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio News.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
Windsor Castle hosted by King Charles, a city banquet with
the Lord Mayor, and a Franco British summit at ten
Downing Street. But this is what mattered to Prime Minister
Kirs Darmer.
Speaker 3 (00:23):
This will show others trying to make the same journey
that it will be in vain and the jobs they've
been promised in the UK will no longer exist because
of the nationwide crackdown we're delivering.
Speaker 2 (00:36):
So kiss Darmer. Hello, you're listening to Bloomberg UK Politics.
I'm Caroline Hepcare and.
Speaker 4 (00:40):
I'm Stephen Carroll. Now Kay Starmer agreed a deal with
the French President Emmanuel Macron to return migrants arriving in
small boats from France. It's a pilot project that's expected
to cover around fifty returns per week, though the Home
Secretary of at Cooper says those numbers haven't been fixed.
The French president pointed out the successful implementation and is
contingent on France being able to return migrants rejected by
(01:03):
Britain to the EU countries they first arrived in according
to EU law. Emmanuel Macran says that bregsit supporters sold
a lie to Britain's regarding immigration.
Speaker 5 (01:13):
The response to our problems require cooperation, a European approach.
Whether populace have often sold you a response which is
through nationalists withdrawal, budgetary immigration, legal growth problems of the
UK nine years ago, were they sold by brexit on
(01:35):
to No, they're being sold by a government that wants
to recommit with its trusted partners in Europe.
Speaker 2 (01:42):
So that was Emmanuel Macaw speaking through a translator in
praise of actually Kirs Starmer's government. But the backdrop is
more than twenty one thousand asylum seekers crossing the English
Channel so far this year, something reform UK has focused on.
Speaker 6 (02:00):
I don't think this so called deal will make any
difference at all. If we even try to deport people
across the channel, we will run straight into the European
Convention on Human Rights. The lawyers will have a field day.
Speaker 2 (02:13):
So Nigel Farage there, Well, let's discuss with our foreign
policy and defense reporter Ellen Milligan and Bloomberg opinion columnist
Leonel laure who's in Paris. Ellen, the issue of migrants
is so politically crucial in the UK. Is this Franco
British deal more than just optics.
Speaker 7 (02:33):
It remains to be seen. I think this islet of
this scheme is it's designed to be ramped up over time.
But even Kea Starmer said himself in the press conference yesterday,
we need to actually see whether it works. And I
think it's been heaped in skepticism yesterday and today because
(02:57):
the agreement means that France willone accept the return of
around fifty migrants per week. To put that into perspective,
on July fourth alone this year, five hundred migrants across
the channel in small boats, so it's a really small proportion.
But the argument that Kirs Starmer was making was that
(03:17):
even though the net numbers will stay the same because
one in one outdal means that the UK will accept
what it describes as migrants applying for asylum through legal
routes rather than through crossing the channel. That this pilot
will act as a de terrent for those thinking about
crossing the channel on small boats. And you know, there
(03:37):
was quite strong language from the Prime Minister yesterday that
you know, we want to prove the concept that if
you come over by a small point, you will fail
and you will be returned to France. So whether this
scheme actually breaks this model that Kistama's been trying to
break for a year now, we'll find out in the
(03:58):
coming months.
Speaker 4 (04:00):
Lionel, to you and powers, this didn't appear like it
was a major issue for Emmanuel Macro and the context
of this state trip to the UK. How important was
this to him to be able to go home and
say that he did anod to deal with the UK.
Speaker 8 (04:17):
So this is a politically sensitive issue in France for
very different reasons. Macont was very clear and wanted to
correct the record next to Kirstarma by telling the British
media that this kind of caricatural portrayal of France as
the country that's kind of not doing anything that's encouraging
this to happen, and also taking British money and not
(04:38):
doing anything with it is unfair and untrue because France
is actually feeling this from the other perspective, which is
to say, the local towns and the mayors and the
politicians there feel like they have become the external border
guards of the UK and they are the ones who
are kind of having to also invest and spend on security.
(05:01):
And Frank brixit has made this worse because it's weaponizing
an issue that is to do with borders and requires cooperation. Now,
the importance of this deal was not obviously for my
core to say it's been done. I think the bigger
question is can France and that you can actually start
cooperating and working constructively on it. The EU actually has
(05:25):
had a deal like this with Turkey in the past,
and you see that actually it can bring numbers down.
The question though, is does it get political follow through,
because it still requires political relations to be good between
both sides, as with any border, and when those relations frey,
then you do get a deterioration in the success of
the deal. So obviously a much different and a lower
(05:47):
down and priority for France. But as we're seeing from
local politicians already today and yesterday who are actually upset
at the deal because they feel they're getting a raw deal,
it shows you that the politics are quite sensitive on
both sides.
Speaker 2 (06:00):
That's interesting. So then Ellen overalled. So this huge event
and days of as I say, banquets and discussions and
some it's how significant do you think this is as
a reset for France and Britain. In a kir Starmer
very keen to talk about the hard work that he's
put in, quiet diplomatic work.
Speaker 7 (06:23):
Yeah, it's really interesting what the point just being made
as well, because mccron gave this quite emphatic. It was
almost like a rant about Brexit and how the public
and the UK were in part persuaded to vote for
Brexit because they were promised it would bring down migration
and in fact the very opposite happened. And you know,
(06:44):
entirely valid points about Brexit and migration and ones that
Starmer believes in but feels unable to make in as
emphatic way as the French president because of the political
kind of balance that remained five years after Brexit, and
mcondered that in his in his speech to Parliament a
(07:06):
couple of days ago as well. I mean, beyond the
migrant deal, which I think is probably the most interesting
to British voters, the UK and France did agree to
strengthen their cooperation on nuclear deterrents, so formally declaring a
willingness to coordinate their nuclear capabilities in response to any
(07:31):
security threat in Europe. They are the only two countries
in Europe that have Europe with a NATO that have
a nuclear deterrent so that's that was really interesting actually,
and they are going to order more storm Shadow cruise
miss missiles as well, and then we saw that announcement
(07:51):
on the loan of the Biotapestry next year. So I
think there have definitely been some wins for both sides
on the state visit, but I think this migrant deal
shows the limitations of where that can go. As you
were saying at the beginning, mcron has made very clear
that this migrant deal depends on France's own agreements with
(08:15):
other EU nations and France isn't just going to be
a dumping ground for the migrants that the UK wants,
So there are those limitations there, Lionelle.
Speaker 4 (08:26):
I wonder from your perspective whether this cooperation on defense
and on nuclear deterrens that Ellen just mentioned gives us
an idea of perhaps some of the avenues that the
UK has to rebuild ties with European neighbors on the continent, because,
I mean, France in the Brexit negotiations is one of
the toughest when it came to some of the things
that Britain wanted in their post Brexit trade deal. So
(08:49):
is this sort of a way for Britain to get
back into the heart, shall we say, of other European capitals.
Speaker 8 (08:57):
Yes, maybe not the heart, definitely the mind you as
you're saying, as you were saying Brexit, I mean the
thing about Brexit. It's interesting that this was maybe seen
as a rant from the British side. Mackhorn is kind
of keen to make the point on Brexit that the
UK that the story is over. But in a way
Mackhorn kind of prevailed in some areas because it was
(09:19):
very important to show that the UK was not going
to be a kind of precedent right, that the UK
would not get this incredible deal that would cause other
countries to follow. And I think that clearly hasn't happened,
and so now France is able to try and with
kir Starmer, who's obviously a very different person to the
previous Conservative governments, to try and find a new constructive relationship,
and obviously defense is an area of cooperation. I think
(09:44):
that the fact that the UK did manage to get
access to this new EU defense plan is obviously positive
for Starma and also as the kind of efforts around
investing in the defense of Shang is obviously good for
both because France actually has a trade surplus with the
(10:04):
UK and the UK is a very top top trading
partner for France. So clearly all all of these things
are good. Let's let's see on defense and nuclear coordination
how far it can go. It's not just migration that's
limiting this, it's also very different worldviews. The UK is
still clearly NATO first, it's clearly investing still in the
in the special relationship under Donald Trump, and it's not
(10:26):
quite ready to let that go. Obviously, France has different
priorities and is hoping for a more sovereign and a
more geopolitically minded Europe. Let's see how how much overlapped
they can be in those views as the two countries
work together. But it's definitely the more constructive side of
the relationship.
Speaker 2 (10:43):
M It's interesting, isn't it, because also these two leaders
come to this gathering, these meetings at very different points
politically themselves. You know, with KOs Army's a year into office,
he's had some bumps already along the way, and we
still try to work out what Starmer wants for his
UK administration. What the goal is, you know, does this
(11:06):
give hints because you know, Manu in Macau in some
ways has obviously been in power much longer, perhaps is
waning in terms of his political power. Ellen, is this
what does this show us about what this still fairly
new UK government wants to do.
Speaker 7 (11:22):
There was a really interesting moment in the press conference
where you know, it was put to both of them
that they are both centrist leaders who are quite beleaguered
in different ways. Obviously, mccron's term runs out in a
couple of years and he's been beset by domestic issues
and Kistam has only been in office for a year
(11:44):
but also has been beset by rebellions over his welfare reforms,
throwing back large parts of the budget that was put
in place last year, speculation over his chancellor staying who
was in tears last week, and it was put to
them kind of has Macron given Starmer any advice so
on how to weather the storm? And it kind of
(12:05):
prompted this quite passionate speech almost by Macron, who was
talking about, you know, not resorting to populism, and that
was echoed by Starmer. You know, he said, you know,
he didn't name him, but he was clearly talking about
Nigel Ferrag that while Starmer himself is coming up with
solutions and trying to strike these deals with France over
(12:28):
the channel crossings parages, using it as a media opportunity
and just taking photos of the boats rather than doing
anything about it. And I think that's where there's like
a real kind of even though that, you know, there's
a valid point about kind of slightly differing worldviews, they
do have that in common and they do emphatically believe
(12:50):
in that as well, and they are both in a
similar position where populism is on the rise, both in
the UK and France. Nigel Farag is the most popular
these the most popular party in the polls in the
UK at the moment, and so I think I think
that was very much on show on the show at
(13:10):
this state visit, and I think I think what will
be interesting is if Starmer himself is willing to kind
of make that argument more forcefully in the same way
that mccron is. He's sometimes not very comfortable with those
kind of more kind of political speeches or arguments, and
whether we're going to see that more going forward.
Speaker 4 (13:32):
Nothing like the French presidents bringing out with a bit
of rhetorical flourish in the press conference. Ellen Milligan, our
defensive foreign affairs reporter, thank you. And to Bloomberg opinions
that Leonella aren't in Paris. Thank you to you both.
That's it from us for today. If you like the program,
don't forget to subscribe, give it five stars that other
people can find it on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever
you listen.
Speaker 2 (13:51):
This episode was produced by James Walcock and Harry Black.
Our audio engineer was Andrew Givern. I'm Caroline Yet and.
Speaker 4 (13:58):
I'm Steven Carroll. We'll be back next week with more.
This is Bloomberg.
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio News.
Speaker 2 (00:11):
Windsor Castle hosted by King Charles, a city banquet with
the Lord Mayor, and a Franco British summit at ten
Downing Street. But this is what mattered to Prime Minister
Kirs Darmer.
Speaker 3 (00:23):
This will show others trying to make the same journey
that it will be in vain and the jobs they've
been promised in the UK will no longer exist because
of the nationwide crackdown we're delivering.
Speaker 2 (00:36):
So kiss Darmer. Hello, you're listening to Bloomberg UK Politics.
I'm Caroline Hepcare and.
Speaker 4 (00:40):
I'm Stephen Carroll. Now Kay Starmer agreed a deal with
the French President Emmanuel Macron to return migrants arriving in
small boats from France. It's a pilot project that's expected
to cover around fifty returns per week, though the Home
Secretary of at Cooper says those numbers haven't been fixed.
The French president pointed out the successful implementation and is
contingent on France being able to return migrants rejected by
(01:03):
Britain to the EU countries they first arrived in according
to EU law. Emmanuel Macran says that bregsit supporters sold
a lie to Britain's regarding immigration.
Speaker 5 (01:13):
The response to our problems require cooperation, a European approach.
Whether populace have often sold you a response which is
through nationalists withdrawal, budgetary immigration, legal growth problems of the
UK nine years ago, were they sold by brexit on
(01:35):
to No, they're being sold by a government that wants
to recommit with its trusted partners in Europe.
Speaker 2 (01:42):
So that was Emmanuel Macaw speaking through a translator in
praise of actually Kirs Starmer's government. But the backdrop is
more than twenty one thousand asylum seekers crossing the English
Channel so far this year, something reform UK has focused on.
Speaker 6 (02:00):
I don't think this so called deal will make any
difference at all. If we even try to deport people
across the channel, we will run straight into the European
Convention on Human Rights. The lawyers will have a field day.
Speaker 2 (02:13):
So Nigel Farage there, Well, let's discuss with our foreign
policy and defense reporter Ellen Milligan and Bloomberg opinion columnist
Leonel laure who's in Paris. Ellen, the issue of migrants
is so politically crucial in the UK. Is this Franco
British deal more than just optics.
Speaker 7 (02:33):
It remains to be seen. I think this islet of
this scheme is it's designed to be ramped up over time.
But even Kea Starmer said himself in the press conference yesterday,
we need to actually see whether it works. And I
think it's been heaped in skepticism yesterday and today because
(02:57):
the agreement means that France willone accept the return of
around fifty migrants per week. To put that into perspective,
on July fourth alone this year, five hundred migrants across
the channel in small boats, so it's a really small proportion.
But the argument that Kirs Starmer was making was that
(03:17):
even though the net numbers will stay the same because
one in one outdal means that the UK will accept
what it describes as migrants applying for asylum through legal
routes rather than through crossing the channel. That this pilot
will act as a de terrent for those thinking about
crossing the channel on small boats. And you know, there
(03:37):
was quite strong language from the Prime Minister yesterday that
you know, we want to prove the concept that if
you come over by a small point, you will fail
and you will be returned to France. So whether this
scheme actually breaks this model that Kistama's been trying to
break for a year now, we'll find out in the
(03:58):
coming months.
Speaker 4 (04:00):
Lionel, to you and powers, this didn't appear like it
was a major issue for Emmanuel Macro and the context
of this state trip to the UK. How important was
this to him to be able to go home and
say that he did anod to deal with the UK.
Speaker 8 (04:17):
So this is a politically sensitive issue in France for
very different reasons. Macont was very clear and wanted to
correct the record next to Kirstarma by telling the British
media that this kind of caricatural portrayal of France as
the country that's kind of not doing anything that's encouraging
this to happen, and also taking British money and not
(04:38):
doing anything with it is unfair and untrue because France
is actually feeling this from the other perspective, which is
to say, the local towns and the mayors and the
politicians there feel like they have become the external border
guards of the UK and they are the ones who
are kind of having to also invest and spend on security.
(05:01):
And Frank brixit has made this worse because it's weaponizing
an issue that is to do with borders and requires cooperation. Now,
the importance of this deal was not obviously for my
core to say it's been done. I think the bigger
question is can France and that you can actually start
cooperating and working constructively on it. The EU actually has
(05:25):
had a deal like this with Turkey in the past,
and you see that actually it can bring numbers down.
The question though, is does it get political follow through,
because it still requires political relations to be good between
both sides, as with any border, and when those relations frey,
then you do get a deterioration in the success of
the deal. So obviously a much different and a lower
(05:47):
down and priority for France. But as we're seeing from
local politicians already today and yesterday who are actually upset
at the deal because they feel they're getting a raw deal,
it shows you that the politics are quite sensitive on
both sides.
Speaker 2 (06:00):
That's interesting. So then Ellen overalled. So this huge event
and days of as I say, banquets and discussions and
some it's how significant do you think this is as
a reset for France and Britain. In a kir Starmer
very keen to talk about the hard work that he's
put in, quiet diplomatic work.
Speaker 7 (06:23):
Yeah, it's really interesting what the point just being made
as well, because mccron gave this quite emphatic. It was
almost like a rant about Brexit and how the public
and the UK were in part persuaded to vote for
Brexit because they were promised it would bring down migration
and in fact the very opposite happened. And you know,
(06:44):
entirely valid points about Brexit and migration and ones that
Starmer believes in but feels unable to make in as
emphatic way as the French president because of the political
kind of balance that remained five years after Brexit, and
mcondered that in his in his speech to Parliament a
(07:06):
couple of days ago as well. I mean, beyond the
migrant deal, which I think is probably the most interesting
to British voters, the UK and France did agree to
strengthen their cooperation on nuclear deterrents, so formally declaring a
willingness to coordinate their nuclear capabilities in response to any
(07:31):
security threat in Europe. They are the only two countries
in Europe that have Europe with a NATO that have
a nuclear deterrent so that's that was really interesting actually,
and they are going to order more storm Shadow cruise
miss missiles as well, and then we saw that announcement
(07:51):
on the loan of the Biotapestry next year. So I
think there have definitely been some wins for both sides
on the state visit, but I think this migrant deal
shows the limitations of where that can go. As you
were saying at the beginning, mcron has made very clear
that this migrant deal depends on France's own agreements with
(08:15):
other EU nations and France isn't just going to be
a dumping ground for the migrants that the UK wants,
So there are those limitations there, Lionelle.
Speaker 4 (08:26):
I wonder from your perspective whether this cooperation on defense
and on nuclear deterrens that Ellen just mentioned gives us
an idea of perhaps some of the avenues that the
UK has to rebuild ties with European neighbors on the continent, because,
I mean, France in the Brexit negotiations is one of
the toughest when it came to some of the things
that Britain wanted in their post Brexit trade deal. So
(08:49):
is this sort of a way for Britain to get
back into the heart, shall we say, of other European capitals.
Speaker 8 (08:57):
Yes, maybe not the heart, definitely the mind you as
you're saying, as you were saying Brexit, I mean the
thing about Brexit. It's interesting that this was maybe seen
as a rant from the British side. Mackhorn is kind
of keen to make the point on Brexit that the
UK that the story is over. But in a way
Mackhorn kind of prevailed in some areas because it was
(09:19):
very important to show that the UK was not going
to be a kind of precedent right, that the UK
would not get this incredible deal that would cause other
countries to follow. And I think that clearly hasn't happened,
and so now France is able to try and with
kir Starmer, who's obviously a very different person to the
previous Conservative governments, to try and find a new constructive relationship,
and obviously defense is an area of cooperation. I think
(09:44):
that the fact that the UK did manage to get
access to this new EU defense plan is obviously positive
for Starma and also as the kind of efforts around
investing in the defense of Shang is obviously good for
both because France actually has a trade surplus with the
(10:04):
UK and the UK is a very top top trading
partner for France. So clearly all all of these things
are good. Let's let's see on defense and nuclear coordination
how far it can go. It's not just migration that's
limiting this, it's also very different worldviews. The UK is
still clearly NATO first, it's clearly investing still in the
in the special relationship under Donald Trump, and it's not
(10:26):
quite ready to let that go. Obviously, France has different
priorities and is hoping for a more sovereign and a
more geopolitically minded Europe. Let's see how how much overlapped
they can be in those views as the two countries
work together. But it's definitely the more constructive side of
the relationship.
Speaker 2 (10:43):
M It's interesting, isn't it, because also these two leaders
come to this gathering, these meetings at very different points
politically themselves. You know, with KOs Army's a year into office,
he's had some bumps already along the way, and we
still try to work out what Starmer wants for his
UK administration. What the goal is, you know, does this
(11:06):
give hints because you know, Manu in Macau in some
ways has obviously been in power much longer, perhaps is
waning in terms of his political power. Ellen, is this
what does this show us about what this still fairly
new UK government wants to do.
Speaker 7 (11:22):
There was a really interesting moment in the press conference
where you know, it was put to both of them
that they are both centrist leaders who are quite beleaguered
in different ways. Obviously, mccron's term runs out in a
couple of years and he's been beset by domestic issues
and Kistam has only been in office for a year
(11:44):
but also has been beset by rebellions over his welfare reforms,
throwing back large parts of the budget that was put
in place last year, speculation over his chancellor staying who
was in tears last week, and it was put to
them kind of has Macron given Starmer any advice so
on how to weather the storm? And it kind of
(12:05):
prompted this quite passionate speech almost by Macron, who was
talking about, you know, not resorting to populism, and that
was echoed by Starmer. You know, he said, you know,
he didn't name him, but he was clearly talking about
Nigel Ferrag that while Starmer himself is coming up with
solutions and trying to strike these deals with France over
(12:28):
the channel crossings parages, using it as a media opportunity
and just taking photos of the boats rather than doing
anything about it. And I think that's where there's like
a real kind of even though that, you know, there's
a valid point about kind of slightly differing worldviews, they
do have that in common and they do emphatically believe
(12:50):
in that as well, and they are both in a
similar position where populism is on the rise, both in
the UK and France. Nigel Farag is the most popular
these the most popular party in the polls in the
UK at the moment, and so I think I think
that was very much on show on the show at
(13:10):
this state visit, and I think I think what will
be interesting is if Starmer himself is willing to kind
of make that argument more forcefully in the same way
that mccron is. He's sometimes not very comfortable with those
kind of more kind of political speeches or arguments, and
whether we're going to see that more going forward.
Speaker 4 (13:32):
Nothing like the French presidents bringing out with a bit
of rhetorical flourish in the press conference. Ellen Milligan, our
defensive foreign affairs reporter, thank you. And to Bloomberg opinions
that Leonella aren't in Paris. Thank you to you both.
That's it from us for today. If you like the program,
don't forget to subscribe, give it five stars that other
people can find it on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever
you listen.
Speaker 2 (13:51):
This episode was produced by James Walcock and Harry Black.
Our audio engineer was Andrew Givern. I'm Caroline Yet and.
Speaker 4 (13:58):
I'm Steven Carroll. We'll be back next week with more.
This is Bloomberg.
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