Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2 (00:07):
We now are the opposition party in the United Kingdom
to a Labor party, and the tours are toast fighting
talk There from Reform leader Nigel Farage after his party
clinched a by election win. Is it a new era
for UK politics? Hello, you're listening to Bloomberg UK Politics.
I'm Caroline Hepke.
Speaker 3 (00:27):
And I'm new and Potts. Welcome to our election roundup program. Now.
Nigel Farraj's long promise that Reform UK would shake up
British politics, and over the last year his claims have
become more and more bold. He now says he's aiming
for Downing Street.
Speaker 1 (00:40):
Well.
Speaker 3 (00:40):
This week's elections are the first real tests of those
lofty aspirations and crucially the first proper electoral test of
Keir Starmer's government. We don't have many local election results yet,
but Reform have snatched the Runcorn and helsby by election,
overturning a fourteen thousand Labor majority, and former Tory Andrea
Jenkins has won a convincing victory in the Lincolnshire mayoral race,
(01:02):
giving Reform on their first taste of executive power. But
Caroline I think the really interesting question is when all
the doest settles on these results, how does reform behave
in power and how and who do they work with
in other parties?
Speaker 2 (01:14):
Yes, that's one question, but there's also the Conservative and
Labor performance to look at. Doesn't make for particularly happy
reading really for either party. Though Kirs Starmer will be
relieved to have held on in several of the close
mayor contests and six months to the day since she
took over as leader of the opposition, Conservative colleagues will
(01:34):
be picking apart the results from what they say about
Kemmy Baidenock's performance. Fundamentally, is Britain's historic two party system
really on the way out?
Speaker 3 (01:45):
Yeah, that is a key question. Our associate editor Albaret
has been in Runcorn in sunny Cheshire at a night
of drama, the tightst BI election in British electoral history.
How was your night?
Speaker 1 (01:55):
So I am back in London.
Speaker 4 (01:57):
I will caveat but I have been in Runcorn for
most of the week picking up the mood among voters
and it was always going to be close. And yes,
we've been up since early this morning following this drama.
As you were saying, Nigel Farrag's party clinched it by
six votes after a recount, so quite a dramatic result.
Speaker 2 (02:20):
Well here's what IPSOSS CEO Ben Page made of the results.
Have a listen.
Speaker 5 (02:26):
But it just shows how volatile our politics are. It's
perfectly possible that Nigel Farrage could become a prime minister
one day. I'm not saying that's going to happen, but
it just shows how volatile it is.
Speaker 2 (02:37):
So that was Ben Paige, the CEO of IPSACE. I mean,
is that a step too far? We're a long way
from a general election and before UK have only got
a handful of MP's. Can we read so much alva
into this result?
Speaker 1 (02:50):
I think that's one of the big questions.
Speaker 4 (02:53):
I mean, just to dwell on the result before we
extrapol it from it. This is really quite a big blow.
You know, this was a very safe seat for Labor.
They won fifty two point nine percent of the vote
here only a few months ago in the general election
last year, and so Reform have really overturned a massive
(03:17):
majority to win here.
Speaker 1 (03:20):
There are some sort.
Speaker 4 (03:21):
Of health warnings that come with by elections because they
are quite unusual. It is quite normal for incumbent governments
to lose them, but still just given the size of
Labor's majority, it is quite a big blow. And as
you say, it comes in the context of these wider
election victories for fora progress really across the board, where
(03:42):
they've been picking up council seats mostly at the expense
of the Conservatives, and they've won, as you said, their
first ever mayoral seats, so their first experience of executive
part it's kind of it's difficult to really pronounce on
whether this is going to be a permanent shift. Of course,
Nigel Farash has had several political parties. He had UKIP,
(04:03):
he had Brexit. They have won by elections in the past,
They've done very well in some local and European elections,
most notably in twenty nineteen European elections, the Brexit Party
was the biggest party in the UK. So there's a
question as to whether this will be permanent. But it
does build on reform success at the last general election
(04:26):
where they won where they've got five MPs, and so
I think that this, you know, it's sort of it's
difficult to tell at this point whether this is a
permanent shift in elector politics. But what is certain is
that this will be really difficult and unnerving for both
of the main parties. It will launch a big discussion
within the Labor Party about how they tackle the rise
(04:48):
of the populist.
Speaker 1 (04:49):
Right, whether they need a change of strategy.
Speaker 4 (04:51):
There'll be a debate within the party about that because
they're not all on the same page on what they
should do next. And then the even bigger challenges for
Kemy Badenoch, who's face seeing a difficult day because there
are more results yet to come and it's not looking
good for her, as you said, her.
Speaker 1 (05:07):
Leadership.
Speaker 4 (05:07):
Six months to the day since she became leader, that
leadership is already looking a little bit under threat.
Speaker 3 (05:13):
However, the turnout was thirty percent, in the region of
thirty percent we expect. We expect low turnouts in by
elections these days. But I'm interested in the conversations you
had with voters in Roncorn. What was your sense of
the feeling, particularly towards reform. Obviously many of them went
out and voted for reform, but what was your your
the feeling you've got from the other voters were a
(05:33):
lot of people against reform as well.
Speaker 1 (05:35):
Good question, because I think that's exactly it.
Speaker 4 (05:37):
There was a very strong pro reform vote and a
very strong anti reform vote basically, and it was mostly
expressed in those terms. So I met plenty of people
who were voting reform, concerned about immigration and crime in
the local area. That was a big focus of Sarah
Popchin the reform candidates campaign, and lot of people saying that,
(06:01):
you know, they're sick of Labor, that Labor has let
them down. But equally, there were lots of people who
still are not necessarily terribly happy with the way the
Labor Party has been governing since they won the election
last year, who still nevertheless said that they were voting
against reform, that they didn't want to let Nigel Farage in.
(06:21):
So actually, for all that this has been a bad
result for Labor, it could have been even worse because
some of those unenthusiastic voters might not have been motivated
to turn out had Farage not been the opponent. So
an example of how Farage is still a very divisive
(06:42):
politician in Britain.
Speaker 1 (06:43):
Even though he is very popular in some quarters.
Speaker 2 (06:46):
Alva, Yes, thank you so much for being with us.
Our associate editor, Alva Ray there who's been in Runcorn
in Cheshire, of course, which actually came up as a
seat for contest a by election because of Mike Amesbury.
You know the video of the MP hitting someone and
then being ousted from the Labor Party, So that was
the kind of inception of that. Alba, thanks for being
(07:09):
with us. It's bringing our political editor Alex Wickham. Then
for your big thought then on this, as we say,
key test for the incumbent Labor government about what eight
nine months after the general election, the local elections mayl
and then this by election. What did you make of them?
Speaker 4 (07:24):
Alex?
Speaker 6 (07:25):
Thing that in number ten they will be thinking about
this morning and over the coming weeks and months is
we think we've got the right formula to keep our
coalition of voters together, which is broadly being tough on
crime and immigration and trying to improve the economy and
(07:47):
get economic growth.
Speaker 7 (07:49):
But how do we deliver?
Speaker 6 (07:53):
And that is the thing that they are getting frustrated
about in government. They are you know, they really do
believe that they're right in terms of their strategy, but
they are not convinced yet that they are making the
changes and cluding voters aren't either that are necessary to
win elections, and that comes across through the very high
(08:15):
numbers of small boats crossings over the English Channel so
far this year. That will be a key factor in
reforms surge. That is something that is obviously a very
difficult problem to solve. Rishie Sunak failed to deal with
it so far. The Labor government is failing to deal
with it. They will need to come up with a
(08:37):
way of making sure that those numbers come down well
in time for the next election, otherwise they are in
very bad trouble. That is definitely a main takeaway for
Number ten. I suspect we might see some very robust
sounding immigration policies coming up, particularly in the Immigration White
(08:58):
Paper which is being written at the moment, as they
try to kind of, as they would say, double down
on their existing tough position on migration, particularly an illegal migration.
Speaker 7 (09:11):
But the reality will be getting results is what matters.
Speaker 6 (09:17):
But I think the flip side of that is that
is not the only reason that the Labor isn't as
popular as it was nine months ago. And there are
voters who, as Alba was describing in Runcorn, are kind
of traditional labor voters, typically on the left, who you know,
want more redistributive society.
Speaker 7 (09:38):
And high attacks for the wealthy.
Speaker 6 (09:40):
Who will have seen things that Labor has done since
coming in in that first budget in terms of, you know,
taking away winter fuel allowance for pensioners and some of
the changes to disability benefits, and they'll be worried about
that and they'll be saying, hang on a minute, this
isn't this is what I thought we were going to do.
Challenge I think for Kirstarmat is how does he keep
(10:03):
both of those two types of voter happy because they're
different types of voter. And then it's kind of a
he's a victim of his own success in a way
from the big majority. He's got lots of people, lots
of different types of people to vote for him in
the election last year. Keeping those quite that broad coalition
together is his challenge.
Speaker 3 (10:23):
Now facing in two directions at the same time. Alex
I was struck by Labour's vote share in the by
election thirty eight percent. It's actually not that bad for
a midterm, midterm by election. That is not a disastrous
vote share for Labor. Do you think the hope in
Downing Street will be that the Labor Party, when it's
facing reform, can gather up the votes of the other parties,
(10:45):
the Greens and the lib Dems, and borrow those votes
to show up their own base. Do you think there's
some at least a glimmer of hope there.
Speaker 7 (10:54):
Oh, definitely.
Speaker 6 (10:55):
And this is why nobody in number ten is saying,
oh my goodness, this is of catastrophe.
Speaker 7 (10:59):
Were on the way out, you know.
Speaker 6 (11:02):
And this is why they are convinced that they've got
the right strategy, because they still believe that they you know,
and they do have a very clear path to winning
the next election. I'm sure they are the overwhelming favorites
to win the next election, you know, in twenty twenty
eight at the moment.
Speaker 7 (11:20):
And it is.
Speaker 6 (11:20):
Because of that reason the Conservative Party is bluntly nowhere
and you know, faces a huge task to be a
credible threat to Labor in time for the next election.
And Nigel Farahs is not universally popular and is a
(11:41):
very divisive figure, and there may well be a sealing
to his vote, as Alpha was saying, you know, lots
of people voting against Pharahs rather than for any other
reason for the Labor Party.
Speaker 2 (11:53):
Lastly, Alex, just reflect on whether we are seeing a
change moving away from a two parties system more towards
you know, a five party system in the UK as
we know that the world and Britain is more politically divided,
you know, perhaps even more extreme on the edges, is
(12:13):
that the route that Britain is going down.
Speaker 7 (12:17):
Yeah, I mean I think there's certainly a bit of that.
Speaker 6 (12:19):
And the caveat is at local elections, minor parties tend
to do better. People want to vote register their frustration
with the government. You know, there are local issues that
are at play, and certainly traditionally it is a good
time for Nigel Ferrage, whether it's a UKIP Brexit party
(12:42):
or now Reform. So have a good a good showing
in the Poles, same with the same with the Them,
same with the Greens. So yes, it is certainly the
case that politics and the vote is more fragmented than
than it has been in the past and that is
a massive challenge for the Labor Party and the Conservative Party.
(13:05):
Traditionally the main two parties. I think Labor will be
still relatively relaxed about its position. You know, they still
have a huge majority in Parliament where it matters. It's
the Conservatives who will be worried because you know, nobody's
threatening replacing the Labor Party at the moment, but the
(13:27):
Conservatives do face a very serious and credible threat of
being overrun as the number two party, and that is
where the sort of big change is happening. And of
course Labor are losing votes to Reform as well. But
Reform's main aim is to destroy and take over the
(13:48):
Conservative Party. That is their main objective, and it will
be up to the you know, it's a very hard task.
Speaker 7 (13:55):
In kemmy Badenox defense.
Speaker 6 (13:57):
Whoever was the Conservative leader would be facing an extreme
difficult challenge at the moment after the unpopularity of that
party since.
Speaker 7 (14:07):
Before the election.
Speaker 6 (14:07):
But that is going to be the challenge for them
over the next few years.
Speaker 2 (14:11):
Okay, Alex, thank you so much for being with us.
Bloomberg's political editor Alex Wickham.
Speaker 3 (14:15):
Yeah, so big questions for the big two parties, as Alex says,
but I think the fascinating challenge for Reform is that
they've got to move on from just Nigel Faraj's bold
claims and all the bold language and actually they're going
to be in government and getting their hands dirty, and
they're sometimes quite boring and difficult work of local government
and they'll be judged on that in the year's time
(14:36):
and that's something that's completely new for them.
Speaker 2 (14:37):
Yeah, that's it from us for today. If you like
the program, don't forget to subscribe and give it five
stars so that other people can find it on Apple Podcasts, Spotify,
or wherever you listen.
Speaker 3 (14:46):
This episode was produced by Tea Adabaio and all the
engineer was Sean Questa Makia. I'm new and Potts and.
Speaker 2 (14:52):
I'm Caroline Hepkeett. We'll be back with more next week.
This is Bloomberg.