October 1, 2025 • 14 mins
There will be nearly 1,000 new ETFs issued in 2025. Most of these are NOT the usual low-cost passive indices we think of. Instead, these tend to be complex, expensive, active funds in an ETF wrapper. Leveraged directional bets, options, or derivatives-based, and a whole raft of complex strategies.
Dave Nadig is President and Director of Research at ETF.com, and he shares with us how investors should navigate all of these new products.
Each week, “At the Money” discusses an important topic in money management. From portfolio construction to taxes and cutting down on fees, join Barry Ritholtz to learn the best ways to put your money to work.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2 (00:22):
There were six hundred new ETFs launched in the first
eight months of twenty twenty five, and it's gonna get
worse because so many more ETFs are coming out next year.
The growth has been explosive. What does this mean for investors?
I have the perfect person to discuss this with. Dave
(00:43):
Kndig is President and head of research at ETF dot Com.
He has been tracking the ETF industry pretty much since
its beginning and is well known as an expert in
the space. Dave, let's talk a little bit about what's
been going on. Most ETF assets are and will likely
(01:07):
continue to be cheap index based products. That's the legacy
for investors, low cost beta. Is this the future of
ETFs or are we going in a different direction.
Speaker 3 (01:21):
I think most of the money is going to continue
to flow into low cost asset allocation targets right the
S and P five hundred broad bonds, broad commodities at
very very cheap institutional prices. It's just hard to beat that.
It's one of the best deals going in asset management
in the investing world. And so whether you're an individual,
(01:43):
mom and pop investor, just trading your own account or
whether you're the Harvard Endowment, anything in between. Cheap beta
is still probably going to be important to your portfolio,
and ETFs are going to remain the best wrapper for
that experience. However, this industry is not going to take
that lying down and desperately wants to make money. So
(02:04):
most of the new products, the new launches you talked about,
the six hundred will probably have eight hundred and nine
hundred by the end of the year. Almost all of
those products are very expensive. Doesn't mean some of them
aren't good, but they're all very expensive.
Speaker 2 (02:16):
So let's talk about that new products are coming out
with what you described as quote insanely high fees, that
the big revenue winners are likely not the firms you
think of when someone says ETF at a cocktail party.
What does this mean for investors? What does this mean
for the industry? Are there really massive profits to be
(02:38):
had here?
Speaker 3 (02:39):
There are pretty huge profits to be had here. And
if you look at where I like to look at
revenue based on flow, meaning like last month x amount
of money came in, what was the revenue implied by
that money and the implied revenue of the industry now
has probably about it. Twenty five percent of the imply
(03:00):
revenue from flow is going to products that cost over
one percent really, so that means there are a lot
of investors buying products that cost over one percent. And
the reason that's an issue for investors is not that
nothing is worth that fee, but that what's getting launched
tends to be very speculative. We're not talking about core
(03:20):
investing building blocks. We're talking about ETFs that use leverage
or ETFs that use the derivatives markets to shape your
pattern of returns to get you more income than you
might otherwise be able to selling volatility. Those types of
products are expensive, and while they may be useful, like
like a really sharp knife in the drawer can be
(03:41):
really useful when you got that chicken bone you got
to get through, it's not a one size fits all thing.
So I have some concern that individual investors see the
marketing from the industry which is really exclusively focused on
those expensive products, and gets sort of suckered into them.
Speaker 2 (03:57):
So let's talk about what is transformative, What is innovative
in ETFs over the past few years. What trends do
you see shaping twenty twenty six and beyond. What is
the biggest new type of ETF that's coming out.
Speaker 3 (04:15):
Well, you know, there's really three buckets of hot development
from a what could you as an investor target crypto?
We have to talk about, right, Not only do we
now have hundreds of billions of dollars tracking crypto in
various capacities, whether it's spot bitcoin, which is where most
of those flows have gone, but now we're talking about
(04:36):
Ethereum and Solana. We're talking about stake diversions where you're
taking your Solana and you're putting it into a contract
to earn fees off of or earn interest off of it.
That ecosystem of crypto products is going to get very
complex very quickly. The SEC has put out sort of
accelerated listening standards or a default listening standards, which will
(04:57):
allow probably the next ten to twenty coins on the
market cap list to be launched as Spot ETFs. So
those will all be launched within the next six to
twelve months. Before you it's going to be a free
for all. Before you move.
Speaker 2 (05:10):
Off crypto, I have to ask about black Rocks I Bit.
You know it was five billion at launch. It's something
like eighty two billion already. Is this the fastest ever
acid accumulator of any ETF that's been launched.
Speaker 3 (05:28):
It's pretty close. If it's not the winner, I certainly
think on a pure dollar basis, I can't think of
anything that has had that kind of ramp. GLD when
it first came out, you know, was one of the
first to a billion, and then the first to five billion,
and that broke a lot of records. I think I
Bit and bitcoin as a class has really kind of
blown all those things out of the water, and it's
(05:49):
been it's been I think beneficial for the most part. Right,
it's been an orderly process. I think having these bitcoin
ETFs has helped investors understand it. I'm hearing from a
bigger institution's bigger advisors they love the ETF because it
solves all of their custody issues. Everything stays in the
same account. They don't have to worry about having on
(06:11):
chain assets. So while cryptopurists may not be into it,
I think the average investor is way better suited to
get their little bit of crypto exposure in that ETF.
Speaker 2 (06:21):
Rapper, and you mentioned what the SEC is permitting, not
just in crypto, but across the boards. I read your
regular writings and one of the things you had said
is we have a quote incredibly permissive launch environment unquote.
What does this mean in terms of the sort of
(06:41):
things we can see in ETFs either with leverage two
x three x in verse two x. What does this
permissive environment mean for what ETFs are going to get launched?
Speaker 3 (06:54):
It means we're gonna get a lot of them. You know,
we're gonna launch all the things.
Speaker 2 (06:57):
As I like to say, the thing.
Speaker 3 (06:59):
The biggest thing we've had is this move towards single
stock ETFs. And for people might be confused by that,
it's not that you're buying an Apple ETF to invest
in just Apple, because you can obviously just buy Apple
to do that. You're buying an Apple ETF that maybe
gives you two x Apple exposure or minus two x
Apple exposure, so when it goes it goes down, you
go up. Or you're writing options on your Apple position
(07:23):
so that you can get some extra income, or you're
doing a combination of both so that you can only
get you know, you get two x the upside and
minus one x the downside, but with caps involved. Because
you're selling a lot of options along the way. Any way,
you can imagine mixing and matching these kinds of patterns
of returns. The combination of leverage, income and protection around
(07:45):
a single stock is going to be launched. If you
think about it. We've got five hundred stocks and the
S and P five hundred. They are about six different
flavors you can think of for each individual stock, that's
a couple thousand ETFs we're going to have to keep
track of, assuming there's only one of each flavor. And
this industry loves to compete against each other, so legitimately,
I think by this time next year we could have
(08:08):
several thousand more ETFs than we do right now.
Speaker 2 (08:11):
More ETFs than there are actually stocks.
Speaker 3 (08:14):
Huge already, they're absolutely I mean we've been under we
haven't had five thousand stocks in the whelshare in a
long time. I think you're or so. Yeah. So we're
going to see all those single stock products, which are
for the most part, training vehicles. If you're a day trader,
there's lots of value in there. If you are trying
to you know, monetize a long term position, there's some
(08:34):
value in those kinds of covered call strategies. They're all
very expensive, they're very inappropriate for most long term investor
from an allocation perspective, but sharp useful training tools for
a certain class of trader.
Speaker 2 (08:48):
I keep reading some of the things you're penning about
share class relief. Explain what this means and why this
is another flood of new ETFs that are coming out.
Speaker 3 (08:59):
Yeah, let's an example. A DFA dimensional was late to
the ETF party, very well known sort of the nineties
for being one of those shops where you could only
buy them through an advisor who'd gone through their coursework.
They made the shift to convert some of their mutual
funds to ETFs a couple of years ago, and we're
very successful at it now. Why didn't they convert all
(09:20):
of them? Well, because a lot of the DFA products
end up in four oh one K plans, and if
you're in a four to oh one K plan, that
means you need to be able to get fractional shares,
which is really easn't a mutual fund and impossible in
an ETF. So the only way to get the efficiencies
of the ETF structure into those mutual funds is a
share class. An ETF share class pointing at the same
(09:42):
pool of assets. That's how a lot of Vanguard ETFs
are built. They had a patent which has now expired.
The SEC has seventy odd applications from other players in
the industry to basically duplicate things the way Vanguard is.
They've made it very clear that's imminent. I would suggest
by the end of the year, at the very latest,
we'll see this first one's approved, and that will then
(10:04):
be a flood because that becomes a very very simple
boilerplate piece of paperwork to file a new share class
and get it trading on NAZI or Nasdaq, Orcibo. So
we'll just see a lot of those. I would suspect
by the end of the year, we could have maybe
a thousand of those individual share class ETFs turned on.
If all of the people who have filed, converted all
(10:26):
or share classed all of the things they could, it
would be about five or six thousand new ETFs.
Speaker 2 (10:31):
Huh, that's really intriguing. I have to ask a question,
and you're the one who's really schooled me on this.
If mutual funds were created today, they probably wouldn't be approved.
Explain the problem with mutual funds and why ETFs are
arguably so much superior.
Speaker 3 (10:51):
Well, the biggest problem with funds is their tax fairness.
It's the issue with a fund is that if you
as a big investor, Let's say you owned twenty percent
of the Dave mutual fund and you decide I'm terrible
and you on out, well, the mutual fund me has
to now go sell a bunch of securities to give
you back your twenty percent of my fund. All that
cash that you're gonna want that engenders generally a bunch
(11:14):
of capital gains. Those capital gains now have to be
distributed to all the people who are left, the people
you abandoned, Barry. They end up paying taxes because you left,
because you created a capital gain for everybody. Now, it's
not that those are taxes that would never be paid,
it's just you're paying them earlier than you would otherwise
because you get to reduce your basis. So, individual investors
(11:35):
in a mutual fund can often get tax distributions through
no fault of their own, through no action of their own,
simply because other investors go in and out, and an
ETF that simply doesn't happen. So it is a simply
a fairer mechanism. The ETF also brings other things that
are helpful, like the ability to wash out some cap
gains by doing so called creation redemption heartbeat trading. That's
(11:59):
a little feature of ETFs that makes them very tax efficient,
and of course liquidity and transparency and all those other things.
But the big reason mutual funds would probably get the
kibosh today is they're inherently less fair in terms of
how they treat individual investors.
Speaker 2 (12:13):
So even if I don't sell my mutual fund but
other people have, I incre capital gains one hundred percent.
Speaker 3 (12:21):
Now you get again, you get to change your basis,
so when you go to sell, you'll pay less tax gains.
But I don't know about you. I prefer paying taxes later,
hopefully never, or maybe after I'm dead, not today.
Speaker 2 (12:34):
So so final question, it sounds like the future of
ETFs are pretty much anything anything you want to do,
sometimes cheap, always very liquid, but can be accomplished very
well with an ETF. Is this the future of asset management?
Speaker 3 (12:54):
I think so. I think the ETF structure is the
most efficient vehicle we've come up with for taking exposures
and getting them traded on exchanges, and it's hard for
me to see how we're going to make it any
more efficient. Tokenization Crypto sometime down the line will replace
some of what we've done with ETFs, but will largely
(13:14):
duplicate it, and it will just do it in a
different fashion. So the ETF structure is where you're going
to probably get almost all of your exposures for the
foreseeable future, with some very strange educases things like some
private credit or maybe some real estate that you can't
trade daily. There'll be some EDU cases. Everything else is
(13:35):
going to be an ETF.
Speaker 2 (13:36):
So to wrap up, if we're talking about the future
of ETFs, we're really talking about the future of asset
allocation and investing. For the most part, the big money
are in the low cost passive indexes that charge three
four five basis points. But the fastest growing space in
(13:58):
ETF world are active funds. Are alternative funds are all
sorts of niche areas, some of which are pretty pricey.
One hundred, one hundred and twenty five basis points, directional bets,
leverage two x three x, inverse bets. Those are really
special use cases. Tread carefully if you're playing in those spaces.
(14:20):
Use ETFs for what they're really good at, getting you
low cost exposure to inexpensive indices. Tread lightly when you
go into the pricier, wilder stuff. Those are potential accidents
waiting to happen. I'm Barry Ridlts. You're listening to Bloomberg's
at the Money
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2 (00:22):
There were six hundred new ETFs launched in the first
eight months of twenty twenty five, and it's gonna get
worse because so many more ETFs are coming out next year.
The growth has been explosive. What does this mean for investors?
I have the perfect person to discuss this with. Dave
(00:43):
Kndig is President and head of research at ETF dot Com.
He has been tracking the ETF industry pretty much since
its beginning and is well known as an expert in
the space. Dave, let's talk a little bit about what's
been going on. Most ETF assets are and will likely
(01:07):
continue to be cheap index based products. That's the legacy
for investors, low cost beta. Is this the future of
ETFs or are we going in a different direction.
Speaker 3 (01:21):
I think most of the money is going to continue
to flow into low cost asset allocation targets right the
S and P five hundred broad bonds, broad commodities at
very very cheap institutional prices. It's just hard to beat that.
It's one of the best deals going in asset management
in the investing world. And so whether you're an individual,
(01:43):
mom and pop investor, just trading your own account or
whether you're the Harvard Endowment, anything in between. Cheap beta
is still probably going to be important to your portfolio,
and ETFs are going to remain the best wrapper for
that experience. However, this industry is not going to take
that lying down and desperately wants to make money. So
(02:04):
most of the new products, the new launches you talked about,
the six hundred will probably have eight hundred and nine
hundred by the end of the year. Almost all of
those products are very expensive. Doesn't mean some of them
aren't good, but they're all very expensive.
Speaker 2 (02:16):
So let's talk about that new products are coming out
with what you described as quote insanely high fees, that
the big revenue winners are likely not the firms you
think of when someone says ETF at a cocktail party.
What does this mean for investors? What does this mean
for the industry? Are there really massive profits to be
(02:38):
had here?
Speaker 3 (02:39):
There are pretty huge profits to be had here. And
if you look at where I like to look at
revenue based on flow, meaning like last month x amount
of money came in, what was the revenue implied by
that money and the implied revenue of the industry now
has probably about it. Twenty five percent of the imply
(03:00):
revenue from flow is going to products that cost over
one percent really, so that means there are a lot
of investors buying products that cost over one percent. And
the reason that's an issue for investors is not that
nothing is worth that fee, but that what's getting launched
tends to be very speculative. We're not talking about core
(03:20):
investing building blocks. We're talking about ETFs that use leverage
or ETFs that use the derivatives markets to shape your
pattern of returns to get you more income than you
might otherwise be able to selling volatility. Those types of
products are expensive, and while they may be useful, like
like a really sharp knife in the drawer can be
(03:41):
really useful when you got that chicken bone you got
to get through, it's not a one size fits all thing.
So I have some concern that individual investors see the
marketing from the industry which is really exclusively focused on
those expensive products, and gets sort of suckered into them.
Speaker 2 (03:57):
So let's talk about what is transformative, What is innovative
in ETFs over the past few years. What trends do
you see shaping twenty twenty six and beyond. What is
the biggest new type of ETF that's coming out.
Speaker 3 (04:15):
Well, you know, there's really three buckets of hot development
from a what could you as an investor target crypto?
We have to talk about, right, Not only do we
now have hundreds of billions of dollars tracking crypto in
various capacities, whether it's spot bitcoin, which is where most
of those flows have gone, but now we're talking about
(04:36):
Ethereum and Solana. We're talking about stake diversions where you're
taking your Solana and you're putting it into a contract
to earn fees off of or earn interest off of it.
That ecosystem of crypto products is going to get very
complex very quickly. The SEC has put out sort of
accelerated listening standards or a default listening standards, which will
(04:57):
allow probably the next ten to twenty coins on the
market cap list to be launched as Spot ETFs. So
those will all be launched within the next six to
twelve months. Before you it's going to be a free
for all. Before you move.
Speaker 2 (05:10):
Off crypto, I have to ask about black Rocks I Bit.
You know it was five billion at launch. It's something
like eighty two billion already. Is this the fastest ever
acid accumulator of any ETF that's been launched.
Speaker 3 (05:28):
It's pretty close. If it's not the winner, I certainly
think on a pure dollar basis, I can't think of
anything that has had that kind of ramp. GLD when
it first came out, you know, was one of the
first to a billion, and then the first to five billion,
and that broke a lot of records. I think I
Bit and bitcoin as a class has really kind of
blown all those things out of the water, and it's
(05:49):
been it's been I think beneficial for the most part. Right,
it's been an orderly process. I think having these bitcoin
ETFs has helped investors understand it. I'm hearing from a
bigger institution's bigger advisors they love the ETF because it
solves all of their custody issues. Everything stays in the
same account. They don't have to worry about having on
(06:11):
chain assets. So while cryptopurists may not be into it,
I think the average investor is way better suited to
get their little bit of crypto exposure in that ETF.
Speaker 2 (06:21):
Rapper, and you mentioned what the SEC is permitting, not
just in crypto, but across the boards. I read your
regular writings and one of the things you had said
is we have a quote incredibly permissive launch environment unquote.
What does this mean in terms of the sort of
(06:41):
things we can see in ETFs either with leverage two
x three x in verse two x. What does this
permissive environment mean for what ETFs are going to get launched?
Speaker 3 (06:54):
It means we're gonna get a lot of them. You know,
we're gonna launch all the things.
Speaker 2 (06:57):
As I like to say, the thing.
Speaker 3 (06:59):
The biggest thing we've had is this move towards single
stock ETFs. And for people might be confused by that,
it's not that you're buying an Apple ETF to invest
in just Apple, because you can obviously just buy Apple
to do that. You're buying an Apple ETF that maybe
gives you two x Apple exposure or minus two x
Apple exposure, so when it goes it goes down, you
go up. Or you're writing options on your Apple position
(07:23):
so that you can get some extra income, or you're
doing a combination of both so that you can only
get you know, you get two x the upside and
minus one x the downside, but with caps involved. Because
you're selling a lot of options along the way. Any way,
you can imagine mixing and matching these kinds of patterns
of returns. The combination of leverage, income and protection around
(07:45):
a single stock is going to be launched. If you
think about it. We've got five hundred stocks and the
S and P five hundred. They are about six different
flavors you can think of for each individual stock, that's
a couple thousand ETFs we're going to have to keep
track of, assuming there's only one of each flavor. And
this industry loves to compete against each other, so legitimately,
I think by this time next year we could have
(08:08):
several thousand more ETFs than we do right now.
Speaker 2 (08:11):
More ETFs than there are actually stocks.
Speaker 3 (08:14):
Huge already, they're absolutely I mean we've been under we
haven't had five thousand stocks in the whelshare in a
long time. I think you're or so. Yeah. So we're
going to see all those single stock products, which are
for the most part, training vehicles. If you're a day trader,
there's lots of value in there. If you are trying
to you know, monetize a long term position, there's some
(08:34):
value in those kinds of covered call strategies. They're all
very expensive, they're very inappropriate for most long term investor
from an allocation perspective, but sharp useful training tools for
a certain class of trader.
Speaker 2 (08:48):
I keep reading some of the things you're penning about
share class relief. Explain what this means and why this
is another flood of new ETFs that are coming out.
Speaker 3 (08:59):
Yeah, let's an example. A DFA dimensional was late to
the ETF party, very well known sort of the nineties
for being one of those shops where you could only
buy them through an advisor who'd gone through their coursework.
They made the shift to convert some of their mutual
funds to ETFs a couple of years ago, and we're
very successful at it now. Why didn't they convert all
(09:20):
of them? Well, because a lot of the DFA products
end up in four oh one K plans, and if
you're in a four to oh one K plan, that
means you need to be able to get fractional shares,
which is really easn't a mutual fund and impossible in
an ETF. So the only way to get the efficiencies
of the ETF structure into those mutual funds is a
share class. An ETF share class pointing at the same
(09:42):
pool of assets. That's how a lot of Vanguard ETFs
are built. They had a patent which has now expired.
The SEC has seventy odd applications from other players in
the industry to basically duplicate things the way Vanguard is.
They've made it very clear that's imminent. I would suggest
by the end of the year, at the very latest,
we'll see this first one's approved, and that will then
(10:04):
be a flood because that becomes a very very simple
boilerplate piece of paperwork to file a new share class
and get it trading on NAZI or Nasdaq, Orcibo. So
we'll just see a lot of those. I would suspect
by the end of the year, we could have maybe
a thousand of those individual share class ETFs turned on.
If all of the people who have filed, converted all
(10:26):
or share classed all of the things they could, it
would be about five or six thousand new ETFs.
Speaker 2 (10:31):
Huh, that's really intriguing. I have to ask a question,
and you're the one who's really schooled me on this.
If mutual funds were created today, they probably wouldn't be approved.
Explain the problem with mutual funds and why ETFs are
arguably so much superior.
Speaker 3 (10:51):
Well, the biggest problem with funds is their tax fairness.
It's the issue with a fund is that if you
as a big investor, Let's say you owned twenty percent
of the Dave mutual fund and you decide I'm terrible
and you on out, well, the mutual fund me has
to now go sell a bunch of securities to give
you back your twenty percent of my fund. All that
cash that you're gonna want that engenders generally a bunch
(11:14):
of capital gains. Those capital gains now have to be
distributed to all the people who are left, the people
you abandoned, Barry. They end up paying taxes because you left,
because you created a capital gain for everybody. Now, it's
not that those are taxes that would never be paid,
it's just you're paying them earlier than you would otherwise
because you get to reduce your basis. So, individual investors
(11:35):
in a mutual fund can often get tax distributions through
no fault of their own, through no action of their own,
simply because other investors go in and out, and an
ETF that simply doesn't happen. So it is a simply
a fairer mechanism. The ETF also brings other things that
are helpful, like the ability to wash out some cap
gains by doing so called creation redemption heartbeat trading. That's
(11:59):
a little feature of ETFs that makes them very tax efficient,
and of course liquidity and transparency and all those other things.
But the big reason mutual funds would probably get the
kibosh today is they're inherently less fair in terms of
how they treat individual investors.
Speaker 2 (12:13):
So even if I don't sell my mutual fund but
other people have, I incre capital gains one hundred percent.
Speaker 3 (12:21):
Now you get again, you get to change your basis,
so when you go to sell, you'll pay less tax gains.
But I don't know about you. I prefer paying taxes later,
hopefully never, or maybe after I'm dead, not today.
Speaker 2 (12:34):
So so final question, it sounds like the future of
ETFs are pretty much anything anything you want to do,
sometimes cheap, always very liquid, but can be accomplished very
well with an ETF. Is this the future of asset management?
Speaker 3 (12:54):
I think so. I think the ETF structure is the
most efficient vehicle we've come up with for taking exposures
and getting them traded on exchanges, and it's hard for
me to see how we're going to make it any
more efficient. Tokenization Crypto sometime down the line will replace
some of what we've done with ETFs, but will largely
(13:14):
duplicate it, and it will just do it in a
different fashion. So the ETF structure is where you're going
to probably get almost all of your exposures for the
foreseeable future, with some very strange educases things like some
private credit or maybe some real estate that you can't
trade daily. There'll be some EDU cases. Everything else is
(13:35):
going to be an ETF.
Speaker 2 (13:36):
So to wrap up, if we're talking about the future
of ETFs, we're really talking about the future of asset
allocation and investing. For the most part, the big money
are in the low cost passive indexes that charge three
four five basis points. But the fastest growing space in
(13:58):
ETF world are active funds. Are alternative funds are all
sorts of niche areas, some of which are pretty pricey.
One hundred, one hundred and twenty five basis points, directional bets,
leverage two x three x, inverse bets. Those are really
special use cases. Tread carefully if you're playing in those spaces.
(14:20):
Use ETFs for what they're really good at, getting you
low cost exposure to inexpensive indices. Tread lightly when you
go into the pricier, wilder stuff. Those are potential accidents
waiting to happen. I'm Barry Ridlts. You're listening to Bloomberg's
at the Money
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Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Follow now to get the latest episodes of Dateline NBC completely free, or subscribe to Dateline Premium for ad-free listening and exclusive bonus content: DatelinePremium.com
The Joe Rogan Experience
The official podcast of comedian Joe Rogan.