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October 2, 2025 16 mins

South Africa and Nigeria are poised to exit a global financial watchdog’s “gray list” as soon as this month, marking a change in fortune for two of the continent’s biggest economies.

On this week’s Next Africa podcast, Bloomberg’s Africa Economics and Government Editor Monique Vanek and reporter Ben Bartenstein join Jennifer Zabasajja to explain how the countries ended up on the list in the first place, what they’ve done to improve their systems and what benefits exiting the list could bring to their economies.

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Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

Speaker 2 (00:09):
South Africa and Nigeria are set to be taken off
a global dirty money list in just a matter of weeks.
Nigeria has recorded commendable progress under Financial Action Tax Force
International Corporational Review Group Action Plan after two and a
half years of heightened scrutiny by the Financial Action Task Force.
Exiting the list could boost investor confidence in two of

(00:32):
Sub Saharan Africa's largest economies.

Speaker 3 (00:34):
To secure our removal from the International Financial Action.

Speaker 4 (00:39):
Task Force gray List, we have made significant progress.

Speaker 2 (00:45):
On today's episode of The Next Africa Podcast, we'll look
at how South Africa and Nigeria found themselves on the
watchdog's gray list in the first place, and how they've
managed to turn things around. I'm Jennifer Zabasaja, and this
is the Next Africa Podcast, bringing you one story each

(01:05):
week from the continent driving the future of global growth
with the context only Bloomberg can provide. Joining me this
week is our Africa Economics and Government editor Monique Vanek
and our business correspondent Ben Bartenstein. Thank you both for
coming on and for sharing more about some of your reporting. Ben,

(01:26):
maybe we can start with you can you first explain
a bit about who the Financial Action Task Force are
and what this so called dirty money list or gray
list actually is for people who maybe don't know the
nitty gritty like you do.

Speaker 3 (01:44):
So the FATF it's a Paris based multilateral that is
really focused on countering money laundering but also terrorist financing.
You could think of it as sort of the IMF
for tackling dirty money. The group's membership spans both east
and west. You have the US, the UK, the EU,
but also China, India, Japan among its key members, and

(02:08):
the group sets standards for how both governments and private
sector companies can best combat illicit financial flows. But also
the group also conducts country evaluations to really measure two things.
One is technical compliance, what are the laws on the
books in a particular country to combat aml CFT but

(02:31):
also effectiveness how effectively are those countries implementing the laws
on the books. So when a country falls short of
enough of those metrics, they're at risk of gray listing,
and that means they're subject to increase monitoring from the FATF.
That entails tighter, higher compliance costs for banks, and it
also really has implications for foreign investments into that country

(02:54):
and also for remittances flowing back to the country, as
well as kind of a broader impact on the market.
A pop in South African bank shares after the news
that we reported on South Africa being poised to exit
the list in the next few weeks. It's important to
also note that there is a blacklist. The key distinction
there is that a gray list entails that the country

(03:18):
is agreeing to work with FATF to try to address
their deficiencies, or as a blacklist implies that the country
really isn't engaging with FATF. So there are roughly two
dozen countries that are the gray list at the moment,
including South Africa and Nigeria, and three countries at the
moment Iran, North Korea and me and mar that currently

(03:38):
sit on the blacklist.

Speaker 2 (03:40):
And so you mentioned South Africa and Nigeria, which is
of course our focus for the week. When we look
back at when these two countries were put on the list,
what were some of the concerns were they some of
the concerns that you were just alluding to there.

Speaker 3 (03:54):
Yeah, so some of the concerns were shared around beneficial ownership,
transparency is and kind of a key theme across a
lot of the countries evaluated by the FATF where there
aren't the adequate registries to actually show who was the
ultimate owner behind a particular company in that country, so
both countries shared that as a concern. South Africa also

(04:15):
had some concerns around limited success when it comes to
money lundering prosecutions, also some questions around asset recovery and
challenges that have happened there, and also gaps when it
comes to supervision of the banks, casinos in the property sector.
So one of the overarching themes or areas of concern
was around corruption and state capture in South Africa, whereas

(04:37):
for Nigeria, there were more concerns around just sort of
the lack of terrorist financing prosecutions and also some of
the cross border risks when it comes to cash smuggling.
So you could say one of the more overarching concerns
was primarily around terrorist financing, especially any risks associated with Boco,
Haram Monique.

Speaker 2 (04:57):
Let's bring you in here and maybe get into the
economic hit that these countries maybe saw as a result
of being put on this list. We've heard them talk
about wanting to exit the list for quite some time.
But what have we seen over the past few years
the impact of this listening?

Speaker 4 (05:14):
So we have seen some investors being very cautial, surbout
it basic in these countries, but a lot of them
were waiting to see whether they could get off by
this year, and the feting was that if they didn't,
that's what the real economic impact would be felt. Where
we did see impact was on the thanks that other
financial institutions and that the cost of compliance went up,

(05:35):
so they had to do more paperwork and get their
clients to give them more information to basically transect or sure.

Speaker 2 (05:42):
Monique, you were speaking a little bit about the economic
hit that we've seen from being listed. What exactly have
we seen from the governments though of these two countries
to instill some investor confidence. Is it at where these
countries want it to be or is there still a
bit of work to be done.

Speaker 4 (06:01):
So in so Africa's case, interestingly, we saw a big
effort by government to work with the private sector to
get off the gray list. And what we did see
the private sector doing was contributing prosecutorial know how to
the authorities to ensure they could beef up the prosecution
cases and also beef up the ability to follow illicit

(06:25):
financial flows and a Nigeria's case, what was also interesting
there was that we saw the government appointing professionals to
take charge of its anti corruption authorities, so they both
made a concerted effort to try and get off this list,
and we also saw them both implementing legislation that allowed

(06:46):
them to tighten controls overly illicit financial flows and improve supervision.

Speaker 2 (06:51):
How challenging has it been for them to achieve some
of these goals, Monique, I.

Speaker 4 (06:57):
Think for Sooth Africa on the prosecutor real issues, it's
been very challenging because there's been a lot of court
cases against raft that haven't gone according to their favor
because they've just been so weakened by previous administrations that
effectively hollowed out the ability to prosecute high profile cases.

(07:19):
So that's where the private sector became quite important in
trying to just boost the people that they had within
their prosecutorial authority to try to get these cases prosecuted.

Speaker 2 (07:29):
And in the case for Nigeria, I mean clearly trying
to target some of these terror groups is not an
easy task, and especially if we think about the new administration,
the Tanubu and administration coming in with a number of
other priorities. How much of a challenge would you say
that's been.

Speaker 4 (07:45):
Yeah, I think that's been very difficult for Nigeria. I
think they're still trying to deal with the terrorist groups
in the north of the country that are consistently proving
to be difficult to control.

Speaker 1 (07:58):
Stay with us, Monique, bad we come back.

Speaker 2 (08:00):
We'll look at exactly how the task Force makes the
final decision and whether these countries can actually expect to
stay off the list for a long time.

Speaker 1 (08:09):
We'll be right back.

Speaker 2 (08:15):
Welcome back today on the podcast, we're talking about the
likely exit of Nigeria and South Africa from the so
called Dirty Money List. Monique Vennik and Ben Bartenstein are
still with me. Ben, you spoke earlier about this task
force and the looming meeting that both of these countries
have been waiting quite some time for what actually happens.

(08:36):
At the meeting later this month, will they be assessing
some of the progress points that these countries have made
and when will we know whether or not they're definitively
off this list.

Speaker 3 (08:46):
Yeah, so, I mean the meeting and in particular the
last couple of days of the plenary, which will be
happening in late October. That's sort of the marquee moment
as far as when we learn about listings and delistings,
but really there's a huge build up to that moment.
It's really a multi step process when we think back
to when South Africa and Nigeria were originally listed back

(09:08):
in twenty twenty three and the steps that have to
happen before you get to this moment. First, there's an
action plan that's developed with the FATF in which the
FATF kind of charts the course for how they can
ultimately get off the gray list. Second, you have this
implementation and monitoring stage that includes implementing some of those
reforms that Monique was talking about. And then third is

(09:31):
the on site visit, in which FATF assessors will actually
go into the country meet with both government officials but
also members of the private sector, oftentimes huddling with a
lot of the key financial institutions in the country to
really make sure whether these reforms were actually implemented and
get a progress report. Usually that type of on site
visit doesn't happen unless the FATF has really high confidence

(09:55):
that a dlisting is imminent. So we saw those on
site visits happen in recent weeks. We you know, in
talking with our sources, gathered that you know, there was
significant progress that was attained during those visits. And then
when it comes to actually the meeting in Paris later
this month, it's really kind of a final ticking of
the box exercise, which it's not a foregone conclusion, but

(10:19):
they look back at the on site visit, they look
back at all the progress over the two and a
half years in this case, and ultimately then you have
a search for consensus. It's a bit of a secretive process.
There's no precise definition that the FATF phrases when it
comes to what is consensus, but effectively, what it means
is that each delegation has a say and if there's

(10:43):
essentially no major noises or opposition to a particular decision,
then it will pass through. So usually these decisions are
fairly straightforward at this point, so that will become official.
Then on the Friday, which is October twenty fourth, Wow.

Speaker 2 (11:01):
And Monique, could we potentially see good news for other
African countries that are on the list. What do we
know potentially about what else could come out of this meeting.

Speaker 4 (11:12):
Yes, we could see Mozambique and Bikino Busse also coming
with that list later this we both countries have cited
that they've met the tasks that they've been asked to
deal with by the fat to get off the list.
And interestingly, in Mozabik's case, an official that we did
speak to say there could be a game change of

(11:32):
all the country they are removed, because Total Energies has
just said that it's ready to resume its lergy project
that was delayed for several years because of at texts
by Islamic miletants nearby its facilities.

Speaker 2 (11:47):
And Ben, is that your expectation as well? Potentially good
news for these countries.

Speaker 3 (11:53):
That's right. I mean there were recent on site visits.
Our understanding is those went quite well, so that would
pave the way for an It's also important to note
that under the presidency FATF presidency of Elisa Deyanda Madrazo,
she's a Mexican official, there's been kind of a renewed
focus within the FATF as far as how they think

(12:13):
about these listing decisions, and one area of emphasis under
her presidency has been factoring in what the UN calls
least developed countries and thinking about the capacity that some
of these countries have to really tackle financial crime issues.
It's not to absolve them of any responsibility, but it's
just a factor in that certain countries have a bit

(12:36):
more capacity than others. So that is also now getting
factored into these delisting decisions. And also part of that
is to kind of take into context that inherently larger
economies will have more systemic risk when it comes to
if the US or the UK as a gaping hole
in its financial system when it comes to money laundering
or terrorist financing, that has more systemic risk than a

(12:59):
much smaller economy that is less connected to the global markets.

Speaker 2 (13:04):
Are there any conditions ben that these countries have to
agree to to ensure that they don't fall back on
the list or is this sort of a foregone conclusion
that they're if it does go as expected, they're off
the list and that's where the FATF's role in all
of this sort of ends.

Speaker 3 (13:23):
Yes, it's far from a foregone conclusion, you know. One
prominent example was Panama, which actually got off the list
in twenty sixteen, but was listed once again in twenty nineteen,
so that was a prominent recent example in which a
country you know, had made progress, the fat recognized that progress,
but then soon after they were listed once again. Of course,
a lot of this is contingent upon the FATF's calendar.

(13:46):
The FATF actually just completed its fourth round of mutual
evaluations and is now starting its fifth round, which means
there's a whole kind of chronology as far as which
countries are now going to get their fifth round assessments.
So some countries are kind of early in the pecking order.
In South Africa's case, South Africa could have a possible
on site in April twenty twenty seven. Nigeria, at least

(14:08):
to my knowledge, is not on that calendar quite yet,
so that suggests that possibly a next decision on Nigeria
could be further out than South Africa. But certainly the
important thing to note when it comes to the fifth
round is there are new criteria. So whilst South Africa
is currently being judged on the fourth round criteria, soon
after when they come up for their fifth round evaluation,

(14:30):
there's a whole new set of criteria and standards they
have to meet. So yeah, it's far from a foregone conclusion,
but certainly there's positive momentum if they get off the list.
It's a recognition from the FATF that the government has
really shown political will to push forward with these policies
to counter money laundering and terrorist financing.

Speaker 2 (14:49):
Yeah, you can only expect that it will be welcome
news for both of these countries if in fact we
do see the decision being made in their favor.

Speaker 1 (14:58):
We'll leave it there.

Speaker 2 (14:59):
Really, I appreciate both of you and your reporting on
this show this week. That has been Bartenstein and also
Monique Vanek joining us this week.

Speaker 1 (15:08):
Thank you both so much.

Speaker 2 (15:09):
Thank you, thank you, and you can read our reporting
on the Financial Action Task Force across Bloomberg platforms. Now
here's some of the other stories we've been following across
the region this week. Zimbabwe's dollar only stock market is
riding a wave of gains powered by gold miners cashing

(15:30):
in on a forty eight percent jump in the precious
metal this year, and energy firm Rhino Resources has found
gas conenset at another well off Namibia, the latest in
a string of discoveries off the coast of the southern
African nation in recent years.

Speaker 1 (15:47):
You can follow these stories.

Speaker 2 (15:48):
Across Bloomberg platforms now, including the Next African Newsletter. We'll
put a link to that in the show notes. This
program was produced by Adrian's Bradley and Tiba Adebaio.

Speaker 1 (16:01):
Don't forget to follow and review this show.

Speaker 2 (16:03):
Wherever you usually get your podcasts, But for now, I'm
Jennifer Zabasaja.

Speaker 1 (16:08):
Thanks as always for listening.
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Jennifer Zabasajja

Jennifer Zabasajja

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