August 14, 2023 • 35 mins
Taiwan’s current Vice President, Lai Ching-te, leads the polls in the upcoming January presidential election. The winner will have a lot to contend with–and at the top of the list is how to keep the peace with China amid rising tensions. Bloomberg Businessweek editor Joel Weber sat down with Vice President Lai for several wide-ranging interviews in Taiwan.
Joel and Taipei deputy bureau chief Cindy Wang join this episode to talk about the challenges the next president will face in preserving a democratic Taiwan, and public concerns about the possibility of military conflict with China.
Read more: Taiwan’s Election Is All About War
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
Consequences are coming right quick, with missile firings in the
East China see and now supposedly military operations surrounding Taiwan.
Speaker 2 (00:09):
In the last few days, China flew seventy two airplanes
across the midline of the Taiwan Straight.
Speaker 3 (00:15):
How would the world respond if China invaded Taiwan? That
question is increasingly on the minds of leaders around the world.
President Biden said last year that the United States would
consider using military force to defend Taiwan.
Speaker 4 (00:32):
Are you willing to get involved militarily to defend Taiwan
if it comes to that, Yes, you are.
Speaker 5 (00:40):
That's the commitment we made.
Speaker 3 (00:42):
That drew a sharp rebuke from Beijing, which sees Taiwan
not as an independent entity but a part of China
that will one day be united with the mainland. The
terms of Taiwan's relationship with China is the central issue
in the closely watched presidential campaign underway there. The front
runner right now among several candidates is Taiwan's current Vice
(01:05):
president le Chinda of the Democratic Progressive Party It's known
as the DPP. Lai is hoping to succeed president, saying
when she can't run again because of term limits. He's
taken a firmer stance on Taiwan's independence than some of
the other candidates.
Speaker 5 (01:23):
We are willing to cooperate with China to advance peace
and prosperity. However, antier China relong states the force against Taiwan.
We must strengthen our military capacity and stand shoulder to
(01:44):
shoulder which democracies to effectively deter the traits from China.
Speaker 3 (01:50):
That's lie. Speaking to Bloomberg BusinessWeek editor Joel Weber, he
recently sat down with the Vice president for several wide
ranging interviews in Taiwan.
Speaker 1 (02:00):
That's the ultimate tension here is can Taiwan preserve this
democratic DNA that has really been the foundation of its
prosperity and keep Beijing away?
Speaker 3 (02:13):
Joel and Bloomberg's deputy Taipei Bureau chief, Cindy Wang, are
here with me to talk about what's at stake for
Taiwan and the heavy burden the next president will face.
I'm west Kosova today on the big take an election
for Taiwan's future. Cindy, There's this very important presidential election
(02:46):
coming up in Taiwan, and of course all presidential elections
are important, but this one seems to have extra significance.
Why are people paying so close attention to this one?
Speaker 6 (02:57):
Yeah, that's right. I think when people talk about Taiwan
these days, the first question that comes to people's mind
would be where there be a war across the Taiwan Strait.
So the key question that everybody wants to note about
Taiwan is how it's going to handle China. And well,
China probably invade Taiwan sometime and that concerns everybody, especially
(03:20):
because Taiwan is the very important tech cup that has
this world famous se conductor industry. So I think this
election is especially important because it's all about war, and
that's also what many people in Taiwan are worried about
right now. So people here are also anxious to know
(03:40):
whether the next president of Taiwan will be able to
handle the tricky relationship with China and how he can
or she can help Taiwan reduce the risk of war.
And right now it looks like the ruling party DPP's
presidential candidate lighting that he's a front runner and most
of the polls now and if DPB wings again, it
(04:03):
would be the first time in Taiwan that a political
party could govern for a third term, and that would
probably mean more people in Taiwan now see themselves as
a Taiwanese and that's going to send a very strong
signal to China because there is a risk that China's
nationalism will be so high that it could increase the
(04:24):
chance of a war across the strait.
Speaker 3 (04:28):
Jolis Cindy said, the current vice president, like Chanda, is
the front runner in the race, and you went to
Taiwan to go speak to him, tell us about him.
Speaker 1 (04:39):
Well, I can't imagine a more complicated geopolitical situation than
the one that's in Taiwan. And I think coming to
the situation from the US, there's this outsider vibe that
I think I brought to it, which was I'm just
going to drop into this place and I just expected
there to be this cloud of China that was over everything.
(05:00):
It was actually kind of surprised that that's not how
it felt. It felt like everyone going about their normal
lives and then all of a sudden there would be
reminders of that presence. And I think Lie actually is
a pretty good embodiment of that. He's an incredibly calm,
mild mannered or at least that's what he wants to project.
He was a doctor originally and entered politics actually in
(05:21):
nineteen ninety six and has sort of risen through the
Taiwanese political apparatus as a member of the DPP, which
has always been pro Taiwan, pro democracy. So he views
himself as really a democratic candidate. And as much as
we want to talk about war and this war sentiment,
(05:43):
and that is one of the defining elements of this
I think presidential election, he will frame it around democracy
and that he wants to be a continuity candidate with
the previous administration, which obviously he's the vice president of.
But there's a lot of questions that accompany that because
he has a very interesting backstory, and again it speaks
(06:04):
to how complicated of a geopolitical situation Taiwan represents.
Speaker 3 (06:09):
Cindy. What does it mean when we say that Lie
wants to be a continuity candidate.
Speaker 6 (06:15):
So Vice person Lai has been known for his provocative
comments in the past. He's known to the Taiwanese public
as a strong advocate for Taiwan independence. So that's the
impression that he left to most people in Taiwan here.
So he has this kind of track record. He said
many times in the past that he would be like
(06:36):
a pragmatic independence worker. Things like that, and that kind
of provocative comments.
Speaker 4 (06:43):
Really worried people and worry Beijing and US as well
as people are worried that he may try to change
the status quo, and that's something that nobody has a
stake with Taiwan would like to see at a moment.
Speaker 6 (06:59):
So soli Is now has a very very important task.
Is he has to prove to everyone, to the US,
to China and even to people in Taiwan that he
is going to be a very steady pair of hands.
He will not change the status quo. He has to
maintain the status quote that Present Thai has maintained over
(07:20):
the past almost eight years. So we asked him during
our sitdown interview with him, whether there would be a
romance to Taiwan independence, whether he would consider change the
name of Taiwan. So his answers to all those questions
are no, there isn't going to be any change. Currently
the official name of Taiwan is the Republic of China,
(07:41):
and he said because Present Thai has used the name
Republic of China Taiwan to unite the Taiwanese people, and
that's the name he will continue to use.
Speaker 3 (07:51):
Joels Cindi says, people watch very carefully how Liai describes Taiwan,
and China certainly does too, and that's true of everyone.
The way talks about itself, The way China describes Taiwan
is really at the heart of this whole question.
Speaker 1 (08:06):
Right, and there's this status quo that a lot of
the parties involved are trying to maintain, and everyone watches
their words very carefully, me included me most of all. Actually,
probably right when you read about this stuff, you got
to be exacting and that was reflected actually in my
interviews with Lai. He speaks decent English, but he actually
(08:28):
chose to speak mainly in Chinese, I think out of caution, basically,
to be super mindful of the words that were coming
out of his mouth. There are a couple of times
that he opted to speak in English, but I think
default setting for him was in Chinese because of the
importance of getting his message right. And that shows you
what the stakes really look like here. So what really
(08:50):
comes down to here is Taiwan in the eyes of
Beijing is viewed as a breakaway province and under this
one Chin a policy that has become sort of the
driving principle of beijing geopolitical goals. They view everything Taiwan
(09:10):
included as part of a greater China and will be
absorbed at a future date. What that future date is,
no one really knows. Taiwan wants it to be never
and wants the status quo to remain where they are
a democratically independent sovereign entity. So that's the ultimate tension
(09:31):
here is can Taiwan preserve this democratic DNA that has
really been the foundation of its prosperity and keep Beijing away?
Speaker 6 (09:42):
I think status quo is really the key thing here.
I think every party which has a stake in Taiwan
all wants to preserve this status quo, although they may
have different interpretation about the status quo. Some polls in
Taiwan show that at least three fours of Taiwan's popular
supports status quo. They don't want to be independent, they
(10:03):
don't want to unification with China either, but they want
the status quo to go on. Since US and Taiwan
cut ties about like four decades ago, so US switched
ties to Beijing and recognized Beijing is China, and then
from that moment on US stop recognizing Taiwan as a
(10:24):
sovereign country. Instead, there is an ambiguity that acknowledged that
China's idea that there is only one China and that's
represented by People's Republic of China. But it just leaves
the entity of Taiwan undecided. So that's the tricky thing
about the US One China policy. So even though US
(10:47):
President Joe Biden has that four times that it would
defend Taiwan, this ambiguity that US officially didn't recognize Taiwan
as a country, so it can't really call Taiwan as
a nation.
Speaker 1 (11:00):
I think the other thing to keep in mind there
is it's almost like everything just feels like it's on
a hair trigger, and what everyone is fearful of is provoking,
and what I think Beijing does is attempt to continue
to push the envelope. There's a medium line in the
middle of the Taiwan's rate. They've crossed it. They've fired
(11:22):
missiles over Taiwan, They've done a partial naval blockade in
response to former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit a year ago.
So all of these things sort of challenge the status quo,
and the moment that Taiwan or the US were to
respond in a way that might be a little too impulsive.
For instance, Beijing will use that as an indication of
(11:45):
change to the status quo and maybe escalate the situation.
Speaker 3 (11:49):
Joel, you asked Lie how Taiwan feels about the support
it gets from the rest of the world.
Speaker 1 (11:56):
Do you feel that the international community treats Taiwan justly?
Speaker 5 (12:03):
I sing so. I sing so because Taiwan security is
a globo yishu and the piece in the Indo Pacific
region benefit all the country.
Speaker 1 (12:18):
I think that answer reflects just how complicated of a
situation Taiwan's in with its diplomatic relationships around the world.
There are official allies that Taiwan has thirteen of them,
thirteen countries recognized Taiwan as a country and an ally,
but that number is dwindled in recent years as China's
flipped a couple of them, and right now, actually Vice
(12:41):
President Lae is in transit through the US to visit
an official ally Paraguay. Paraguay happens to be a supplier
of beef to Taiwan. If you go to Taipei or
anywhere in Taiwan. Beef noodle soup is one of the
dishes that is phenomenal. A lot of the beef in
beef noodle soup comes from Paraguay. That gives you a
sense of what they're going to talk about when live
(13:02):
shows up. Is like the importance of this relationship between
Paraguay and Taiwan. Right, But to go through the US,
he can't have a round trip ticket that puts him
in the US. He has to transit through here to
get to Paraguay. So he goes through New York on
the way and then he goes through San Francisco on
the way back. And that's all not to inflame China.
(13:25):
So all of these diplomatic relationships that Taiwan has comes
down to this sensitivities with China. And there's these official
allies that Taiwan has, but there's also these unofficial ones.
And part of what the current administration President Sai with
Vice President Lai have done is really tried to lean
into this informal, unofficial friendship of like minded democracies they'll
(13:49):
call it. So Japan is a huge part of that.
Australia is a part of that. South Korea could be
part of that. And then looking at Europe, which has
suddenly looked to Taiwan because of Ukraine, I think to say, wow,
here's a place that we should also be supporting. And
then of course the US. So there's this patchwork quilt
that Taiwan hopes has its back, and as you say,
(14:11):
Lie has to transit through the US bocanically stop there.
Speaker 3 (14:14):
Like you would never see the president or vice president
of Taiwan visiting Joe Biden at the White House.
Speaker 1 (14:21):
Not only would you not see Lie visiting DC, you
won't see the president or the Vice president go to Taiwan.
And that's why when former Speaker of the House Nancy
Pelosi showed up, it escalated the situation, and I think
a year later, we're still in the aftermath of that,
and that's one of the reasons why everyone's watching this election.
Speaker 3 (14:43):
More from Joel's interview with Lie when we come back, Joel,
we've been talking about how carefully everyone speaks about the
relationship between Taiwan in China, and Lie has really pushed
(15:04):
those boundaries a little bit. When you talk to him,
how did he talk about the relationship between Taiwan and China.
Speaker 1 (15:11):
So I think the foundation of Lie's candidacy and what
he says in the interview is really about this idea
of maintaining the status quo. And because he is this
continuity candidate, he's the current vice president, the current president.
President sign can't run because of term liaments, so he's
(15:34):
continuing the DPP's policies, which is basically, we're willing to
have a dialogue with Beijing. The door is open, only
Beijing doesn't see it that way. Beijing, as an opening
bid to any conversation, would want Taiwan to recognize that
it is part of Greater China, and that is a
(15:55):
non starter for Lie. And it also speaks to sort
of how fractured the rest of this race looks like
and what the opposition parties might be willing to do.
Speaker 3 (16:05):
And you spoke to Lii about this, and here's what
he had to say.
Speaker 7 (16:09):
Well, Jensa, this election is about choosing between two roads.
One way is to continue engaging and cooperating closely with
the international community while deepening our democracy. The other choice
is to accept the one China principle and stand together
with China. I believe the US will continue to support
(16:30):
us on the first path one means.
Speaker 6 (16:34):
So Lie is talking about, of course, the US, and
he believes that US will want him to continue the
path to work with the international community, including the US,
while the opposition candidates would probably go down to the
other side. They wanted to increase the dialogue and exchanges
(16:55):
with China. So the key issue for this present election
is about how people should decide how Taiwan should deal
with China going forward.
Speaker 3 (17:10):
Joe, when you spoke to lie about how he would
lead the country, what did he say? What is his platform?
Speaker 1 (17:19):
Well, there's a formal answer to that which has got
these four principles that are effectively speak to how he
will continue president size policies. I think the foundation, though,
is that he really wants to have Taiwan as a democracy.
Speaker 5 (17:36):
I have the confidence that if we go on the
right path to strengthen our sybil and national defense capability
and extend shoulder to shoulder with democracies, I think we
will go through this complicated situation. And I always say
(18:00):
peace is our destination, democracy is our campus. We have two.
We have no choice to navigate brevity through this complicated situation.
Speaker 1 (18:13):
I mean he won best legislator in Taiwan when he
was on a more local level. And the foundation of
the DPP is this is a democracy right. So part
of how this election is being framed is that Lie
says voting for me is voting for democracy. The opposition
candidates will say, if you're voting for Lie, you're voting
(18:36):
for war. If you're voting for us, you're voting for peace.
And so those are sort of the ultimate tensions that
are kind of playing out here.
Speaker 3 (18:44):
And what does he say about those charges that vote
for him is a vote for war.
Speaker 1 (18:49):
He does not want to provoke China full stop. So
for him, he wants to be ready to defend and
he said that to us. One element of that is
that the current administration has extended conscription, which in Taiwan
had been four months. So if you're an adult male,
you had to do a four month tour of duty
(19:11):
with the military. That's been extended to a year. That's
been controversial because it speaks to the fact that Taiwan
needs to be able to defend itself. And one of
the things, like us is we would want the US
to come to our back, but we need to be
able to defend ourselves.
Speaker 5 (19:27):
We don't want to be enemies. We can be throwned
and we love to see China can enjoy democracy and
freedom just like us as long as layo is parity
and dignity, although is always open. We are willing to
cooperate with China to advance peace and prosperity. However, a
(19:52):
tier China relungstates the force against Taiwan. We must strengthen
our mini try capacity and the stand shoulder to shoulder
with democracies to effectively deter the straits from China and
to secure stability in the inter Pacific region.
Speaker 6 (20:15):
So Light previously said that to avoid war, Talan has
to be prepared for war. So I think people here
usually cite soon that's ancient Chinese military strategy saying that
the best strategy would be to stop your enemy from
doing anything stupid.
Speaker 4 (20:34):
So that's why.
Speaker 6 (20:35):
Not only just why, but also the KNT and the
opposition candidates as well. They all support the idea that
talent should be fat the deterrence so that that could
stop China from having the idea to invade Taiwan and
also have to let China think twice about the massive
consequence they may have. Should one day they wanted to
(20:57):
invade Taiwan. Joe.
Speaker 3 (21:00):
We've talked about how Taiwan's chip making capability is one
of its most important assets and one of the things
that the rest of the world would potentially want to
protect if China decided to move in. But TSMC, the
big chip maker, is now building plants in the US.
Is that considered a good thing or a bad thing
(21:20):
for Taiwan's security?
Speaker 1 (21:22):
That is a strategic imperative for the US. If all
of the world's advanced chip making resides solely in Taiwan
and there were an escalation of tensions in Taiwan or
just open warfare, the world could be set back years.
I mean, we take away these chips, you're living in
a world that looks like nineteen eighty two.
Speaker 2 (21:43):
Right.
Speaker 1 (21:43):
It's a scary thought. It's also really scary for the
US military because those advanced chips are what the US
would need to power its military. So from a US perspective,
it's really important that some of TSMC's operations be on
short and that's reflected of these fabrication plants fabs that
(22:03):
are being built in Arizona. That is sort of an
opening bid for perhaps more chip making that could move
out of Taiwan. Already, TSMC has an operation in Japan,
they're flirting with Germany. So there's this idea that maybe
there could be more chip making outside of Taiwan. Now
that becomes really complicated in Taiwan because there's a fear
(22:27):
that if all this advanced chip making moves out of Taiwan,
would anyone come to Taiwan's aid, should tensions escalate in
China invade if the chip making isn't happening in Taiwan,
do you need Taiwan? And that is a really really
difficult question that is part of this election as well.
Speaker 3 (22:48):
Cindy, what do Lie and the other candidates say about
this question of exporting chip making capability to other countries.
Speaker 6 (22:56):
Yeah, we asked Lied about this question during our terview,
and Lie things it's actually a good thing that Taiwan,
especially TSMC, could set up its plans overseas because that
shows the expansion of Taiwan's economic strengths, and that shows
Taiwan's significance and the global tax supply chain tawand Pan.
Speaker 7 (23:20):
Taiwan's semiconductor industry has attracted attention from around the world,
but this industry is built on cooperation. For example, in Taiwan,
we are focused on IC design, IC production, packaging and testing.
Our processes are focused in the manufacturing space. However, our
equipment comes from the US, Japan, and the Netherlands. As
(23:41):
a result of the semiconductor industry consists of a shared
supply chain from across democracies.
Speaker 6 (23:49):
Tany and he also believes that that's Taiwan's responsibility to
give back to the international community. So when we ask
him during the interview if TSMC going to set up
another plan in the US in the future, will he
stopped that His ansor is literally no, because he thinks
that's just a positive development to show Taiwan's significance to
(24:11):
the wall.
Speaker 1 (24:13):
All of this speaks to an element in the election
that you could think of as American skepticism, which is,
if chip making moves out of Taiwan, does the US
actually have Taiwan's back. The other element that Lie brought up,
which I thought was fascinating, was even though the chip
(24:33):
making moves to the US, Taiwan has this ecosystem that's
been built over decades and the US doesn't have that
same ecosystem. So those chips that are going to get
made in Arizona on behalf of Apple and Nvidia and
whoever else. Those chips are going to go back to
Taiwan and basically be assembled into other things or elsewhere. Right,
(24:54):
So it speaks to sure, US might get some chips
out of this, but they're going to get made and
then ships somewhere else to get assembled into the final
product that Americans buy as consumer goods.
Speaker 3 (25:06):
Cindy, How do regular people in Taiwan feel about this?
Do they think it's a good idea to export chip making?
Speaker 6 (25:14):
I think that's really a controversial topic in Taiwan now,
and I believe some people saying it's a good idea,
just like Vice President Lai said, will other people would
also agree with the opposition camp's idea that it's probably
the US trying to get the chip industry out of Taiwan.
(25:37):
In case of emergency or conflict, then US probably won't
really need to centrop to Taiwan or defend Taiwan and
not helping this. Just a while ago, we see former
US President Trump said.
Speaker 2 (25:51):
Remember this, Taiwan took Smart Brilliant, they took our business away.
We should have stopped them. We should have text them,
we should have tariffed them.
Speaker 6 (26:01):
So that again probably proved to some Taiwanese. Let just
totally fit into this US skepticism theory that US didn't
really try to help Taiwan for its own benefit after
the break.
Speaker 3 (26:15):
How do people in Taiwan see the relationship with China, Joe.
We've talked about how some people are making comparisons between
Russia and Ukraine and China and Taiwan, and that a
(26:35):
lot of people see this election is important in part
because the next president may have to deal with an
escalation of tensions with China. What is Lie's view on
what Taiwan needs to do if war with China is
a real risk.
Speaker 1 (26:51):
I think it's imperative that Taiwan and Lie not provoke China,
and so that will be the first thing. One of
the other people that we talked to was actually the
Foreign Minister, and the Foreign Minister said, China likes to
draw red lines and bluster and one of the things
that the international community should do is recognize that and
not take that beat. So I think, first and foremost
(27:14):
it's imperative that LIE to keep the status quo, not provoke,
but should it happen. He's made clear that Taiwan will defend.
Speaker 6 (27:23):
Itself when we as lie. During the interview what he
learned from the Russian Ukraine War, he acknowledged that talent
securities of international concern and we will not be provocative
and try to avoid war as much as possible.
Speaker 7 (27:39):
Means democracy is a universal value, irrespective of borders. President
Zelenski rallied his people to resist Russia's invasion. They are
protecting not only their country, their land, and their people.
They are also fighting on behalf of our democratic values.
Speaker 5 (27:57):
Anyway, would also it's a how.
Speaker 7 (28:02):
Colade Russia's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine has led us to
see that dictatorships are inherently unpredictable. We must make the
best preparations for a worst case scenario and any way,
we also see that President Zelenski's courage, as well as
the support they sought internationally, all contributed to Ukraine's resistance
(28:23):
against the Russian invasion. We have a deep understanding that
we must avoid war in the Taiwan Strait. There are
no winners in war. Peace is priceless. From the war
in Ukraine, we see that we must do all we
can to avoid war in the Taiwan Strait.
Speaker 3 (28:39):
Tenzin Cindy, What do you people in Taiwan think about
this risk of war? Is this a topic of conversation
that comes up a lot.
Speaker 6 (28:49):
I think on the surface, the life in Taiwan are
pretty normal, just like when Joel visited US. We took
Joel to the Nine Markets and you can see that
the nine markets are packed with the food vendors and
pack withst tourists not only from Taiwan but also from
around the world. So businesses is very usual in Taiwan.
And the other day when I try to book a restaurant,
(29:10):
I still need to like there's a long queue for
Taiwan's famous thing, Tayphoon restaurant, things like that. So on
the surface, everything looks very normal in Taiwan. But I
think under the surface something started to change, especially after
the Russian Ukraine War started. I think people here started
to realize that war is not impossible. One of my
(29:33):
friends who is from a wealthy family, they're talking about
buying passports from some smaller countries, probably like some countries
in the Caribbean Sea or even in EU. If you
invest a certain amount of money, so that kind of
options have take rooted in some Taiwanese people's minds, especially
(29:55):
those people from the wealthy families, because they probably have
more to lose. They're thinking about contingency plan for themselves
and even for their kids. And in the campaign, there
are some other issues like a slow in economy, stagnant wages,
high housing costs, and repeated delayed in the transition to
(30:15):
renewable energy. But really the tension with China is the
biggest issue in the presidential election, so that overshadows everything else.
Speaker 3 (30:25):
Does China have a preferred candidate in this race? What
do they think of Lie as a possible president of Taiwan.
Speaker 6 (30:33):
Certainly China doesn't like Lie. So there was an anodote
about Light. He went to Shanghai in twenty fourteen, and
he made really strong comments about Taiwan independence. According to
one of the person who was in Live's delegation at
that time, he said Light immediately picked up that question
(30:53):
by saying Tawan independence was the consensus among the Taiwanese people.
That's still vividly remembered by many of us in Taiwan,
and some people in his delegation. Even Jokin said afterwards
that they'll worry whether they will be able to leave
Shanghai after his comments on taiwan independence.
Speaker 1 (31:14):
Just to understore that significance lies the only Taiwanese politician
to make bold statements about Taiwanese independence on Chinese soil.
That shows you how much Beijing does not like him.
Speaker 6 (31:27):
As to the other opposition candidate, the one that's probably
the most China friendly is Terry Gould. That's the founder
of Foxhound Technology Group. He hasn't really declared his bid
for presidential candidacy yet, but it's widely suspected that he
probably will do that. And the reason why he is
(31:49):
the most China friendly one is because he has said
an an opinion piece to The Washington Post that he
called for Taiwan to immediately start a top with China
under the One China Framework, and he also blamed current
leader the President tai and Vice President Lie for bringing
(32:12):
Taiwan to the brink of war. So people expected that
Perry Gill would declare his bid for the presidential candidate
as an independent, and if that's true within opposition split
among three candidates, that's probably going to increase present lives
chance as a presidential candidate Joe.
Speaker 3 (32:35):
So where do things go from here?
Speaker 1 (32:37):
So the election is going to actually be in January,
so we have several months for this to play out,
and then once we know who's won the election, the
new president actually won't take office until May, so we
have a lot of time. But it does speak to
also the turbulence of Taiwanese politics. The last election, the
current president side was not in the lead and then
(33:00):
dramatically took over the lead and won in a landslide.
So while Lie is currently ahead in the polls, it's
an election and anything can happen.
Speaker 6 (33:09):
One thing to remember though, Lie currently has a support
rating of under forty, so that means at least sixty
percent of people who are not supportive of Lie. So
if there is any way that a position campaign they
can try to consolidate behind one candidate, then that could
(33:30):
be the only way that they could lead over vice
person Lie beat him and be elected next January.
Speaker 1 (33:40):
A way to think about what unfolds over the next
couple of months is you've got Lie, who's a former
kidney doctor, the TPP candidate former surgeon. You've got the
KMT candidate who's a former detective and then you've got
Fox Con founder Terry Woe, who's a billionaire. So you've
got a doctor, a surgeon, a detective, and a billionaire
(34:04):
walking into an election. Who wins. The world is going
to be watching this election come January. Obviously, Taiwan's invested
in this outcome. Beijing is watching it, the US is
watching it, Europe's watching it. The global economy might hinge
in the balance of who's elected president, So the stakes
(34:26):
for this election could not be higher.
Speaker 3 (34:29):
Joel Cindy, thanks so much for speaking with me, Thanks
for having us, Thanks for listening to us here at
The Big Take. It's a daily podcast from Bloomberg and iHeartRadio.
For more shows from iHeartRadio, visit the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts,
or wherever you listen, and we'd love to hear from you.
Email us questions or comments to Big Take at Bloomberg
(34:51):
dot net. The supervising producer of The Big Take is
Vicky Virgalina. Our senior producer is Catherine Fink. Our producers
are Michael Fole and Mowberrow. Philde Garcia is our engineer,
with additional production support from Nielli Haramio Plata and Jill Namazzi.
Our original music was composed by Leo Sidron. I'm West Kasova.
(35:13):
We'll be back tomorrow with another big take.
Consequences are coming right quick, with missile firings in the
East China see and now supposedly military operations surrounding Taiwan.
Speaker 2 (00:09):
In the last few days, China flew seventy two airplanes
across the midline of the Taiwan Straight.
Speaker 3 (00:15):
How would the world respond if China invaded Taiwan? That
question is increasingly on the minds of leaders around the world.
President Biden said last year that the United States would
consider using military force to defend Taiwan.
Speaker 4 (00:32):
Are you willing to get involved militarily to defend Taiwan
if it comes to that, Yes, you are.
Speaker 5 (00:40):
That's the commitment we made.
Speaker 3 (00:42):
That drew a sharp rebuke from Beijing, which sees Taiwan
not as an independent entity but a part of China
that will one day be united with the mainland. The
terms of Taiwan's relationship with China is the central issue
in the closely watched presidential campaign underway there. The front
runner right now among several candidates is Taiwan's current Vice
(01:05):
president le Chinda of the Democratic Progressive Party It's known
as the DPP. Lai is hoping to succeed president, saying
when she can't run again because of term limits. He's
taken a firmer stance on Taiwan's independence than some of
the other candidates.
Speaker 5 (01:23):
We are willing to cooperate with China to advance peace
and prosperity. However, antier China relong states the force against Taiwan.
We must strengthen our military capacity and stand shoulder to
(01:44):
shoulder which democracies to effectively deter the traits from China.
Speaker 3 (01:50):
That's lie. Speaking to Bloomberg BusinessWeek editor Joel Weber, he
recently sat down with the Vice president for several wide
ranging interviews in Taiwan.
Speaker 1 (02:00):
That's the ultimate tension here is can Taiwan preserve this
democratic DNA that has really been the foundation of its
prosperity and keep Beijing away?
Speaker 3 (02:13):
Joel and Bloomberg's deputy Taipei Bureau chief, Cindy Wang, are
here with me to talk about what's at stake for
Taiwan and the heavy burden the next president will face.
I'm west Kosova today on the big take an election
for Taiwan's future. Cindy, There's this very important presidential election
(02:46):
coming up in Taiwan, and of course all presidential elections
are important, but this one seems to have extra significance.
Why are people paying so close attention to this one?
Speaker 6 (02:57):
Yeah, that's right. I think when people talk about Taiwan
these days, the first question that comes to people's mind
would be where there be a war across the Taiwan Strait.
So the key question that everybody wants to note about
Taiwan is how it's going to handle China. And well,
China probably invade Taiwan sometime and that concerns everybody, especially
(03:20):
because Taiwan is the very important tech cup that has
this world famous se conductor industry. So I think this
election is especially important because it's all about war, and
that's also what many people in Taiwan are worried about
right now. So people here are also anxious to know
(03:40):
whether the next president of Taiwan will be able to
handle the tricky relationship with China and how he can
or she can help Taiwan reduce the risk of war.
And right now it looks like the ruling party DPP's
presidential candidate lighting that he's a front runner and most
of the polls now and if DPB wings again, it
(04:03):
would be the first time in Taiwan that a political
party could govern for a third term, and that would
probably mean more people in Taiwan now see themselves as
a Taiwanese and that's going to send a very strong
signal to China because there is a risk that China's
nationalism will be so high that it could increase the
(04:24):
chance of a war across the strait.
Speaker 3 (04:28):
Jolis Cindy said, the current vice president, like Chanda, is
the front runner in the race, and you went to
Taiwan to go speak to him, tell us about him.
Speaker 1 (04:39):
Well, I can't imagine a more complicated geopolitical situation than
the one that's in Taiwan. And I think coming to
the situation from the US, there's this outsider vibe that
I think I brought to it, which was I'm just
going to drop into this place and I just expected
there to be this cloud of China that was over everything.
(05:00):
It was actually kind of surprised that that's not how
it felt. It felt like everyone going about their normal
lives and then all of a sudden there would be
reminders of that presence. And I think Lie actually is
a pretty good embodiment of that. He's an incredibly calm,
mild mannered or at least that's what he wants to project.
He was a doctor originally and entered politics actually in
(05:21):
nineteen ninety six and has sort of risen through the
Taiwanese political apparatus as a member of the DPP, which
has always been pro Taiwan, pro democracy. So he views
himself as really a democratic candidate. And as much as
we want to talk about war and this war sentiment,
(05:43):
and that is one of the defining elements of this
I think presidential election, he will frame it around democracy
and that he wants to be a continuity candidate with
the previous administration, which obviously he's the vice president of.
But there's a lot of questions that accompany that because
he has a very interesting backstory, and again it speaks
(06:04):
to how complicated of a geopolitical situation Taiwan represents.
Speaker 3 (06:09):
Cindy. What does it mean when we say that Lie
wants to be a continuity candidate.
Speaker 6 (06:15):
So Vice person Lai has been known for his provocative
comments in the past. He's known to the Taiwanese public
as a strong advocate for Taiwan independence. So that's the
impression that he left to most people in Taiwan here.
So he has this kind of track record. He said
many times in the past that he would be like
(06:36):
a pragmatic independence worker. Things like that, and that kind
of provocative comments.
Speaker 4 (06:43):
Really worried people and worry Beijing and US as well
as people are worried that he may try to change
the status quo, and that's something that nobody has a
stake with Taiwan would like to see at a moment.
Speaker 6 (06:59):
So soli Is now has a very very important task.
Is he has to prove to everyone, to the US,
to China and even to people in Taiwan that he
is going to be a very steady pair of hands.
He will not change the status quo. He has to
maintain the status quote that Present Thai has maintained over
(07:20):
the past almost eight years. So we asked him during
our sitdown interview with him, whether there would be a
romance to Taiwan independence, whether he would consider change the
name of Taiwan. So his answers to all those questions
are no, there isn't going to be any change. Currently
the official name of Taiwan is the Republic of China,
(07:41):
and he said because Present Thai has used the name
Republic of China Taiwan to unite the Taiwanese people, and
that's the name he will continue to use.
Speaker 3 (07:51):
Joels Cindi says, people watch very carefully how Liai describes Taiwan,
and China certainly does too, and that's true of everyone.
The way talks about itself, The way China describes Taiwan
is really at the heart of this whole question.
Speaker 1 (08:06):
Right, and there's this status quo that a lot of
the parties involved are trying to maintain, and everyone watches
their words very carefully, me included me most of all. Actually,
probably right when you read about this stuff, you got
to be exacting and that was reflected actually in my
interviews with Lai. He speaks decent English, but he actually
(08:28):
chose to speak mainly in Chinese, I think out of caution, basically,
to be super mindful of the words that were coming
out of his mouth. There are a couple of times
that he opted to speak in English, but I think
default setting for him was in Chinese because of the
importance of getting his message right. And that shows you
what the stakes really look like here. So what really
(08:50):
comes down to here is Taiwan in the eyes of
Beijing is viewed as a breakaway province and under this
one Chin a policy that has become sort of the
driving principle of beijing geopolitical goals. They view everything Taiwan
(09:10):
included as part of a greater China and will be
absorbed at a future date. What that future date is,
no one really knows. Taiwan wants it to be never
and wants the status quo to remain where they are
a democratically independent sovereign entity. So that's the ultimate tension
(09:31):
here is can Taiwan preserve this democratic DNA that has
really been the foundation of its prosperity and keep Beijing away?
Speaker 6 (09:42):
I think status quo is really the key thing here.
I think every party which has a stake in Taiwan
all wants to preserve this status quo, although they may
have different interpretation about the status quo. Some polls in
Taiwan show that at least three fours of Taiwan's popular
supports status quo. They don't want to be independent, they
(10:03):
don't want to unification with China either, but they want
the status quo to go on. Since US and Taiwan
cut ties about like four decades ago, so US switched
ties to Beijing and recognized Beijing is China, and then
from that moment on US stop recognizing Taiwan as a
(10:24):
sovereign country. Instead, there is an ambiguity that acknowledged that
China's idea that there is only one China and that's
represented by People's Republic of China. But it just leaves
the entity of Taiwan undecided. So that's the tricky thing
about the US One China policy. So even though US
(10:47):
President Joe Biden has that four times that it would
defend Taiwan, this ambiguity that US officially didn't recognize Taiwan
as a country, so it can't really call Taiwan as
a nation.
Speaker 1 (11:00):
I think the other thing to keep in mind there
is it's almost like everything just feels like it's on
a hair trigger, and what everyone is fearful of is provoking,
and what I think Beijing does is attempt to continue
to push the envelope. There's a medium line in the
middle of the Taiwan's rate. They've crossed it. They've fired
(11:22):
missiles over Taiwan, They've done a partial naval blockade in
response to former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit a year ago.
So all of these things sort of challenge the status quo,
and the moment that Taiwan or the US were to
respond in a way that might be a little too impulsive.
For instance, Beijing will use that as an indication of
(11:45):
change to the status quo and maybe escalate the situation.
Speaker 3 (11:49):
Joel, you asked Lie how Taiwan feels about the support
it gets from the rest of the world.
Speaker 1 (11:56):
Do you feel that the international community treats Taiwan justly?
Speaker 5 (12:03):
I sing so. I sing so because Taiwan security is
a globo yishu and the piece in the Indo Pacific
region benefit all the country.
Speaker 1 (12:18):
I think that answer reflects just how complicated of a
situation Taiwan's in with its diplomatic relationships around the world.
There are official allies that Taiwan has thirteen of them,
thirteen countries recognized Taiwan as a country and an ally,
but that number is dwindled in recent years as China's
flipped a couple of them, and right now, actually Vice
(12:41):
President Lae is in transit through the US to visit
an official ally Paraguay. Paraguay happens to be a supplier
of beef to Taiwan. If you go to Taipei or
anywhere in Taiwan. Beef noodle soup is one of the
dishes that is phenomenal. A lot of the beef in
beef noodle soup comes from Paraguay. That gives you a
sense of what they're going to talk about when live
(13:02):
shows up. Is like the importance of this relationship between
Paraguay and Taiwan. Right, But to go through the US,
he can't have a round trip ticket that puts him
in the US. He has to transit through here to
get to Paraguay. So he goes through New York on
the way and then he goes through San Francisco on
the way back. And that's all not to inflame China.
(13:25):
So all of these diplomatic relationships that Taiwan has comes
down to this sensitivities with China. And there's these official
allies that Taiwan has, but there's also these unofficial ones.
And part of what the current administration President Sai with
Vice President Lai have done is really tried to lean
into this informal, unofficial friendship of like minded democracies they'll
(13:49):
call it. So Japan is a huge part of that.
Australia is a part of that. South Korea could be
part of that. And then looking at Europe, which has
suddenly looked to Taiwan because of Ukraine, I think to say, wow,
here's a place that we should also be supporting. And
then of course the US. So there's this patchwork quilt
that Taiwan hopes has its back, and as you say,
(14:11):
Lie has to transit through the US bocanically stop there.
Speaker 3 (14:14):
Like you would never see the president or vice president
of Taiwan visiting Joe Biden at the White House.
Speaker 1 (14:21):
Not only would you not see Lie visiting DC, you
won't see the president or the Vice president go to Taiwan.
And that's why when former Speaker of the House Nancy
Pelosi showed up, it escalated the situation, and I think
a year later, we're still in the aftermath of that,
and that's one of the reasons why everyone's watching this election.
Speaker 3 (14:43):
More from Joel's interview with Lie when we come back, Joel,
we've been talking about how carefully everyone speaks about the
relationship between Taiwan in China, and Lie has really pushed
(15:04):
those boundaries a little bit. When you talk to him,
how did he talk about the relationship between Taiwan and China.
Speaker 1 (15:11):
So I think the foundation of Lie's candidacy and what
he says in the interview is really about this idea
of maintaining the status quo. And because he is this
continuity candidate, he's the current vice president, the current president.
President sign can't run because of term liaments, so he's
(15:34):
continuing the DPP's policies, which is basically, we're willing to
have a dialogue with Beijing. The door is open, only
Beijing doesn't see it that way. Beijing, as an opening
bid to any conversation, would want Taiwan to recognize that
it is part of Greater China, and that is a
(15:55):
non starter for Lie. And it also speaks to sort
of how fractured the rest of this race looks like
and what the opposition parties might be willing to do.
Speaker 3 (16:05):
And you spoke to Lii about this, and here's what
he had to say.
Speaker 7 (16:09):
Well, Jensa, this election is about choosing between two roads.
One way is to continue engaging and cooperating closely with
the international community while deepening our democracy. The other choice
is to accept the one China principle and stand together
with China. I believe the US will continue to support
(16:30):
us on the first path one means.
Speaker 6 (16:34):
So Lie is talking about, of course, the US, and
he believes that US will want him to continue the
path to work with the international community, including the US,
while the opposition candidates would probably go down to the
other side. They wanted to increase the dialogue and exchanges
(16:55):
with China. So the key issue for this present election
is about how people should decide how Taiwan should deal
with China going forward.
Speaker 3 (17:10):
Joe, when you spoke to lie about how he would
lead the country, what did he say? What is his platform?
Speaker 1 (17:19):
Well, there's a formal answer to that which has got
these four principles that are effectively speak to how he
will continue president size policies. I think the foundation, though,
is that he really wants to have Taiwan as a democracy.
Speaker 5 (17:36):
I have the confidence that if we go on the
right path to strengthen our sybil and national defense capability
and extend shoulder to shoulder with democracies, I think we
will go through this complicated situation. And I always say
(18:00):
peace is our destination, democracy is our campus. We have two.
We have no choice to navigate brevity through this complicated situation.
Speaker 1 (18:13):
I mean he won best legislator in Taiwan when he
was on a more local level. And the foundation of
the DPP is this is a democracy right. So part
of how this election is being framed is that Lie
says voting for me is voting for democracy. The opposition
candidates will say, if you're voting for Lie, you're voting
(18:36):
for war. If you're voting for us, you're voting for peace.
And so those are sort of the ultimate tensions that
are kind of playing out here.
Speaker 3 (18:44):
And what does he say about those charges that vote
for him is a vote for war.
Speaker 1 (18:49):
He does not want to provoke China full stop. So
for him, he wants to be ready to defend and
he said that to us. One element of that is
that the current administration has extended conscription, which in Taiwan
had been four months. So if you're an adult male,
you had to do a four month tour of duty
(19:11):
with the military. That's been extended to a year. That's
been controversial because it speaks to the fact that Taiwan
needs to be able to defend itself. And one of
the things, like us is we would want the US
to come to our back, but we need to be
able to defend ourselves.
Speaker 5 (19:27):
We don't want to be enemies. We can be throwned
and we love to see China can enjoy democracy and
freedom just like us as long as layo is parity
and dignity, although is always open. We are willing to
cooperate with China to advance peace and prosperity. However, a
(19:52):
tier China relungstates the force against Taiwan. We must strengthen
our mini try capacity and the stand shoulder to shoulder
with democracies to effectively deter the straits from China and
to secure stability in the inter Pacific region.
Speaker 6 (20:15):
So Light previously said that to avoid war, Talan has
to be prepared for war. So I think people here
usually cite soon that's ancient Chinese military strategy saying that
the best strategy would be to stop your enemy from
doing anything stupid.
Speaker 4 (20:34):
So that's why.
Speaker 6 (20:35):
Not only just why, but also the KNT and the
opposition candidates as well. They all support the idea that
talent should be fat the deterrence so that that could
stop China from having the idea to invade Taiwan and
also have to let China think twice about the massive
consequence they may have. Should one day they wanted to
(20:57):
invade Taiwan. Joe.
Speaker 3 (21:00):
We've talked about how Taiwan's chip making capability is one
of its most important assets and one of the things
that the rest of the world would potentially want to
protect if China decided to move in. But TSMC, the
big chip maker, is now building plants in the US.
Is that considered a good thing or a bad thing
(21:20):
for Taiwan's security?
Speaker 1 (21:22):
That is a strategic imperative for the US. If all
of the world's advanced chip making resides solely in Taiwan
and there were an escalation of tensions in Taiwan or
just open warfare, the world could be set back years.
I mean, we take away these chips, you're living in
a world that looks like nineteen eighty two.
Speaker 2 (21:43):
Right.
Speaker 1 (21:43):
It's a scary thought. It's also really scary for the
US military because those advanced chips are what the US
would need to power its military. So from a US perspective,
it's really important that some of TSMC's operations be on
short and that's reflected of these fabrication plants fabs that
(22:03):
are being built in Arizona. That is sort of an
opening bid for perhaps more chip making that could move
out of Taiwan. Already, TSMC has an operation in Japan,
they're flirting with Germany. So there's this idea that maybe
there could be more chip making outside of Taiwan. Now
that becomes really complicated in Taiwan because there's a fear
(22:27):
that if all this advanced chip making moves out of Taiwan,
would anyone come to Taiwan's aid, should tensions escalate in
China invade if the chip making isn't happening in Taiwan,
do you need Taiwan? And that is a really really
difficult question that is part of this election as well.
Speaker 3 (22:48):
Cindy, what do Lie and the other candidates say about
this question of exporting chip making capability to other countries.
Speaker 6 (22:56):
Yeah, we asked Lied about this question during our terview,
and Lie things it's actually a good thing that Taiwan,
especially TSMC, could set up its plans overseas because that
shows the expansion of Taiwan's economic strengths, and that shows
Taiwan's significance and the global tax supply chain tawand Pan.
Speaker 7 (23:20):
Taiwan's semiconductor industry has attracted attention from around the world,
but this industry is built on cooperation. For example, in Taiwan,
we are focused on IC design, IC production, packaging and testing.
Our processes are focused in the manufacturing space. However, our
equipment comes from the US, Japan, and the Netherlands. As
(23:41):
a result of the semiconductor industry consists of a shared
supply chain from across democracies.
Speaker 6 (23:49):
Tany and he also believes that that's Taiwan's responsibility to
give back to the international community. So when we ask
him during the interview if TSMC going to set up
another plan in the US in the future, will he
stopped that His ansor is literally no, because he thinks
that's just a positive development to show Taiwan's significance to
(24:11):
the wall.
Speaker 1 (24:13):
All of this speaks to an element in the election
that you could think of as American skepticism, which is,
if chip making moves out of Taiwan, does the US
actually have Taiwan's back. The other element that Lie brought up,
which I thought was fascinating, was even though the chip
(24:33):
making moves to the US, Taiwan has this ecosystem that's
been built over decades and the US doesn't have that
same ecosystem. So those chips that are going to get
made in Arizona on behalf of Apple and Nvidia and
whoever else. Those chips are going to go back to
Taiwan and basically be assembled into other things or elsewhere. Right,
(24:54):
So it speaks to sure, US might get some chips
out of this, but they're going to get made and
then ships somewhere else to get assembled into the final
product that Americans buy as consumer goods.
Speaker 3 (25:06):
Cindy, How do regular people in Taiwan feel about this?
Do they think it's a good idea to export chip making?
Speaker 6 (25:14):
I think that's really a controversial topic in Taiwan now,
and I believe some people saying it's a good idea,
just like Vice President Lai said, will other people would
also agree with the opposition camp's idea that it's probably
the US trying to get the chip industry out of Taiwan.
(25:37):
In case of emergency or conflict, then US probably won't
really need to centrop to Taiwan or defend Taiwan and
not helping this. Just a while ago, we see former
US President Trump said.
Speaker 2 (25:51):
Remember this, Taiwan took Smart Brilliant, they took our business away.
We should have stopped them. We should have text them,
we should have tariffed them.
Speaker 6 (26:01):
So that again probably proved to some Taiwanese. Let just
totally fit into this US skepticism theory that US didn't
really try to help Taiwan for its own benefit after
the break.
Speaker 3 (26:15):
How do people in Taiwan see the relationship with China, Joe.
We've talked about how some people are making comparisons between
Russia and Ukraine and China and Taiwan, and that a
(26:35):
lot of people see this election is important in part
because the next president may have to deal with an
escalation of tensions with China. What is Lie's view on
what Taiwan needs to do if war with China is
a real risk.
Speaker 1 (26:51):
I think it's imperative that Taiwan and Lie not provoke China,
and so that will be the first thing. One of
the other people that we talked to was actually the
Foreign Minister, and the Foreign Minister said, China likes to
draw red lines and bluster and one of the things
that the international community should do is recognize that and
not take that beat. So I think, first and foremost
(27:14):
it's imperative that LIE to keep the status quo, not provoke,
but should it happen. He's made clear that Taiwan will defend.
Speaker 6 (27:23):
Itself when we as lie. During the interview what he
learned from the Russian Ukraine War, he acknowledged that talent
securities of international concern and we will not be provocative
and try to avoid war as much as possible.
Speaker 7 (27:39):
Means democracy is a universal value, irrespective of borders. President
Zelenski rallied his people to resist Russia's invasion. They are
protecting not only their country, their land, and their people.
They are also fighting on behalf of our democratic values.
Speaker 5 (27:57):
Anyway, would also it's a how.
Speaker 7 (28:02):
Colade Russia's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine has led us to
see that dictatorships are inherently unpredictable. We must make the
best preparations for a worst case scenario and any way,
we also see that President Zelenski's courage, as well as
the support they sought internationally, all contributed to Ukraine's resistance
(28:23):
against the Russian invasion. We have a deep understanding that
we must avoid war in the Taiwan Strait. There are
no winners in war. Peace is priceless. From the war
in Ukraine, we see that we must do all we
can to avoid war in the Taiwan Strait.
Speaker 3 (28:39):
Tenzin Cindy, What do you people in Taiwan think about
this risk of war? Is this a topic of conversation
that comes up a lot.
Speaker 6 (28:49):
I think on the surface, the life in Taiwan are
pretty normal, just like when Joel visited US. We took
Joel to the Nine Markets and you can see that
the nine markets are packed with the food vendors and
pack withst tourists not only from Taiwan but also from
around the world. So businesses is very usual in Taiwan.
And the other day when I try to book a restaurant,
(29:10):
I still need to like there's a long queue for
Taiwan's famous thing, Tayphoon restaurant, things like that. So on
the surface, everything looks very normal in Taiwan. But I
think under the surface something started to change, especially after
the Russian Ukraine War started. I think people here started
to realize that war is not impossible. One of my
(29:33):
friends who is from a wealthy family, they're talking about
buying passports from some smaller countries, probably like some countries
in the Caribbean Sea or even in EU. If you
invest a certain amount of money, so that kind of
options have take rooted in some Taiwanese people's minds, especially
(29:55):
those people from the wealthy families, because they probably have
more to lose. They're thinking about contingency plan for themselves
and even for their kids. And in the campaign, there
are some other issues like a slow in economy, stagnant wages,
high housing costs, and repeated delayed in the transition to
(30:15):
renewable energy. But really the tension with China is the
biggest issue in the presidential election, so that overshadows everything else.
Speaker 3 (30:25):
Does China have a preferred candidate in this race? What
do they think of Lie as a possible president of Taiwan.
Speaker 6 (30:33):
Certainly China doesn't like Lie. So there was an anodote
about Light. He went to Shanghai in twenty fourteen, and
he made really strong comments about Taiwan independence. According to
one of the person who was in Live's delegation at
that time, he said Light immediately picked up that question
(30:53):
by saying Tawan independence was the consensus among the Taiwanese people.
That's still vividly remembered by many of us in Taiwan,
and some people in his delegation. Even Jokin said afterwards
that they'll worry whether they will be able to leave
Shanghai after his comments on taiwan independence.
Speaker 1 (31:14):
Just to understore that significance lies the only Taiwanese politician
to make bold statements about Taiwanese independence on Chinese soil.
That shows you how much Beijing does not like him.
Speaker 6 (31:27):
As to the other opposition candidate, the one that's probably
the most China friendly is Terry Gould. That's the founder
of Foxhound Technology Group. He hasn't really declared his bid
for presidential candidacy yet, but it's widely suspected that he
probably will do that. And the reason why he is
(31:49):
the most China friendly one is because he has said
an an opinion piece to The Washington Post that he
called for Taiwan to immediately start a top with China
under the One China Framework, and he also blamed current
leader the President tai and Vice President Lie for bringing
(32:12):
Taiwan to the brink of war. So people expected that
Perry Gill would declare his bid for the presidential candidate
as an independent, and if that's true within opposition split
among three candidates, that's probably going to increase present lives
chance as a presidential candidate Joe.
Speaker 3 (32:35):
So where do things go from here?
Speaker 1 (32:37):
So the election is going to actually be in January,
so we have several months for this to play out,
and then once we know who's won the election, the
new president actually won't take office until May, so we
have a lot of time. But it does speak to
also the turbulence of Taiwanese politics. The last election, the
current president side was not in the lead and then
(33:00):
dramatically took over the lead and won in a landslide.
So while Lie is currently ahead in the polls, it's
an election and anything can happen.
Speaker 6 (33:09):
One thing to remember though, Lie currently has a support
rating of under forty, so that means at least sixty
percent of people who are not supportive of Lie. So
if there is any way that a position campaign they
can try to consolidate behind one candidate, then that could
(33:30):
be the only way that they could lead over vice
person Lie beat him and be elected next January.
Speaker 1 (33:40):
A way to think about what unfolds over the next
couple of months is you've got Lie, who's a former
kidney doctor, the TPP candidate former surgeon. You've got the
KMT candidate who's a former detective and then you've got
Fox Con founder Terry Woe, who's a billionaire. So you've
got a doctor, a surgeon, a detective, and a billionaire
(34:04):
walking into an election. Who wins. The world is going
to be watching this election come January. Obviously, Taiwan's invested
in this outcome. Beijing is watching it, the US is
watching it, Europe's watching it. The global economy might hinge
in the balance of who's elected president, So the stakes
(34:26):
for this election could not be higher.
Speaker 3 (34:29):
Joel Cindy, thanks so much for speaking with me, Thanks
for having us, Thanks for listening to us here at
The Big Take. It's a daily podcast from Bloomberg and iHeartRadio.
For more shows from iHeartRadio, visit the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts,
or wherever you listen, and we'd love to hear from you.
Email us questions or comments to Big Take at Bloomberg
(34:51):
dot net. The supervising producer of The Big Take is
Vicky Virgalina. Our senior producer is Catherine Fink. Our producers
are Michael Fole and Mowberrow. Philde Garcia is our engineer,
with additional production support from Nielli Haramio Plata and Jill Namazzi.
Our original music was composed by Leo Sidron. I'm West Kasova.
(35:13):
We'll be back tomorrow with another big take.
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