July 2, 2025 • 26 mins
You just might be able to experience the financial future today. A recent trend in investing has exchange-traded fund issuers creating funds focused on futuristic themes like humanoid robots, alien technology and quantum computing. The hope is to attract investors looking for the next big idea. But needless to say, not all of them will pan out—remember Mark Zuckerberg’s metaverse?
On this episode of Trillions, Joel Weber and Eric Balchunas look at the recent flurry of futuristic theme ETFs, their prospects for success and how to do due diligence on them. They are joined by Bloomberg cross asset reporter Vildana Hajric.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. Welcome to Shrillians. I'm
Joel Webber and I'm Eric Belchunis.
Speaker 2 (00:18):
Eric.
Speaker 1 (00:19):
You know what we're going to talk about today is
the future. How is it to invest in the future
with ETFs?
Speaker 3 (00:26):
Yeah, I mean, look, I immediately think of ARC.
Speaker 4 (00:28):
I think Kathy Wood in ARC really kind of put
this trade on the map of like trying to capture
trends that are five years from now. But I mean,
to her credit, even though the ETF has gone up
and down a lot, you know, robotaxis are actually happening.
You see clips of this. Surgeries that are remote are happening.
(00:50):
I've seen clips of this. So some of the stuff
that was discussed five years ago by her is sort
of coming true. And I think for investors, they like
to have their S and P. Five hundred and they
love that and you'll never.
Speaker 3 (01:02):
Get them to give it up.
Speaker 4 (01:04):
But they also don't want to miss out on some
of the stuff that might be happening early and then
speculative and tech oriented, and especially in the US, you know,
we are innovating all the time and people want to
capture that as best they can, and there's a void
to fill for investors, and that I think is where
(01:25):
thematic ETFs really deliver a lot of those sort of
up and coming themes, sometimes even before you've even heard
of the theme or the theme is even ripe.
Speaker 1 (01:34):
So we're going to talk about a certain story today.
The headline was Wall Street pitches sci fi ETFs for robots,
UFOs and quantum bets. That's by Bil Donna Hirich, cross
asset reporter with Bloomberg News. We will be joining us
on this episode, this time on Trillions Capturing the Future
(01:55):
with ETFs. Pil Donna, Welcome back to Trillions.
Speaker 2 (01:59):
Thanks so much for having this.
Speaker 1 (02:00):
So as we told you, when you put robots, UFOs
and quantum meaning quantum computer into a headline, that's like
the trifecta and you immediately like, we have an automated
email that goes out and invites you on trillion. So
really excited to talk to you about this today. As
Eric mentioned, ARC is sort of the poster child for
this style of investing, which is like we're gonna put
(02:21):
together a bunch of stuff in a portfolio that is
all supposed to be five to ten years in the future,
but now it's sort of like that's not even good
enough anymore. We have to get super narrow. How is
this manifesting in the market right, or maybe.
Speaker 2 (02:36):
A way to think about it is that issuers etf
fishers are starting to think about like the post ARC world,
like the post AI world, and they're thinking about these
themes like UFOs, like they're actually is a filing.
Speaker 1 (02:49):
For UFO to stick with the AI think because AI
was sort of like a super concentrated bet and there's
like forty products or something on the market.
Speaker 2 (02:57):
I think there's more than slightly more than forty, and
not all of them are attracting cash. Not all of
them are doing you know, up performing their benchmarks are
outperforming the SMP even so it's sort of like a
struggle there to attract attention and assets.
Speaker 1 (03:12):
But it's like move on already sold space literally so
or not even outer space, like humanoids is one of
the ones that you talk about, what's this? What's that?
Look like?
Speaker 2 (03:24):
Humanoids is so fun? I think. So when we're talking
about humanoids, we're talking about robots that Elon Musks is
hoping to put in your home to help you with
your chores.
Speaker 1 (03:35):
Is Tesla Optimus.
Speaker 2 (03:37):
Robot I think he even said at one point that
the robots will be expected to babysit, which.
Speaker 1 (03:43):
Well, you have you're a kid, like not even two
years ago, would you leave a kid? Not a chance, Eric.
Would you let a humanoid do some babysitting?
Speaker 3 (03:51):
Not yet? I mean it would take time for me
to come around that.
Speaker 4 (03:54):
Would you let it watch your parents? It depends how
what shape my parents were in. But I will say
I saw this movie after Yang with Colin Ferrell, which
really is I think a glimpse into living with a humanoid.
It's basically like what thirty years from now, and the
younger sister of the robot actually develops an emotional bond
(04:19):
and it's a whole thing.
Speaker 3 (04:20):
It's a great movie.
Speaker 1 (04:21):
To me.
Speaker 4 (04:21):
It feels like the closest that we're gonna get to
what will exist in that front. But it will take
twenty thirty years. I think my kids will be the
first to really adopt and you know, trust a robot
walking around the house and stuff.
Speaker 1 (04:36):
I mean, it's just getting out there. Yeah, real quick.
Speaker 4 (04:39):
Though on the humanoid one part of this though, you
said like AI and robotics, like it's still a hot theme.
Speaker 3 (04:44):
I mean there's like, I don't know.
Speaker 4 (04:47):
I think it might be the first or second biggest
theme out there at this point, but there are like
well over a dozen now, and so now it's like, Okay,
if you put robotics in AI out now, you're probably dead.
I mean unless you get lucky with performance. So humanoid
to me is sort of like, Okay, let's take the
AI robotics and actually like make it more narrow and
(05:08):
see if there's a market for that. But I will
say robotics and AI is such an impressive theme to
me because it's gotten a third bite at the apple,
let alone a second like it's hard to take in
a bunch of money. Robotics was huge like ten years ago.
Then it fell from grace normally that's it. The theme
kind of like lives in semi oblivion after that. But
(05:30):
then it came back and people bought it again. Then
it went down, and then it came back again and
people bought it, with Navidia in particular ushering in the
AI concept. And so I think this is one of
the most durable, long lasting themes is AI robotics. I
put humanoids in there as well, and there's money there.
I mean, there's a lot of potential still, but it's
(05:51):
getting more and more saturated.
Speaker 1 (05:53):
Okay, So the humanoid products, because there's now two ETFs,
what are they and how are they investing?
Speaker 2 (06:01):
There's one from Crane Shares and one from round Hill,
and they're investing it. They have slightly different investment thesis.
But the Crane Chairs one, for example, has like three
different things that it's looking for, like the brain for example.
Of the actual humanoids, like who's building those components and
the companies behind the robotics revolution. I guess we can
(06:25):
try to call it. I think it's there's a slight
tension here in that. You know, Eric said maybe in
thirty years will he'll have a robot in his home
to help with chores or whatever. Issuers want you to
get in on this now, expecting it to continue to
grow and grow. So Morgan Stanley for one, is expecting
(06:46):
it to be a five trillion industry by twenty thirty,
which is pretty soon. You know. Elon Musk says, robots
will be in your home sometime soon. Maybe they'll be
in Tesla factories supposedly over in the next six months
or so. These things definitely exist. The robots are helping
run different factories in Asia and other places, and so
(07:09):
it's here. It's just a matter of how much will
it grow and whether or not you want to be
in on the ground level, which is basically now.
Speaker 1 (07:16):
So the Crane Shares when you mentioned the ticker is
Coyd ko i D that came out in early June.
There's some companies that I've kind of never heard of,
jab El Inc, Linus, Rare Earths Limited, Amphenol Corp, Malexis.
And then you've got the navideos and the Tesla's in
the world, Like so many of these things are like,
you know, they're really trying to identify what a supply
(07:38):
chain for this stuff looks like, how do you get
exposure to it? So what the new one is human
hu m n from from Round Hill, from Roundhill, So
what's the approach that Roundho's.
Speaker 2 (07:51):
Taking round Hills is, Well, they're both actively managed. So
the roundhoer one is is focused solely on companies designing
and building humanoids. It's actively managed. It just launched, so
we'll see how those end up performing. I think actually
there's very little overlap between some of these companies and
(08:12):
some already existing robotics and other AI ETFs, which I
think is impressive. Like I spoke with Dave Nadig, who
we know is an ETF industry veteran, and even he said,
you know, it's pretty impressive that there's very little overlap
between some of these because you would have thought, maybe
on the outset, that the investible universe would have been small.
(08:34):
But there's quite a number of companies that you can
add into these ETFs that are internationally based, for example,
that are working on some of these things, whether it's
rare earth or chips or something in the supply chain.
Speaker 1 (08:46):
It's worth mentioning that some China humanoids are already in effect,
and like the YouTube videos are insane for those Eric,
what do you how many humanoid ETFs can the market sustain?
Speaker 4 (09:01):
Well, we got to see how popular these are. Probably
if I had to ballpark it three.
Speaker 3 (09:06):
But that's assuming. Yeah.
Speaker 4 (09:10):
I mean, one thing about the two ETFs that have launched,
Coid and human is that you got to look at
the holdings. You opened up Koid Jol and you said,
I don't recognize any of these names.
Speaker 1 (09:20):
I'm just the Yeah.
Speaker 4 (09:23):
I love that reaction when I open a theme ETF.
To me, that's what I want to see. I don't
want to recognize the names, and KOID looks like it's
mostly equal weighted, so you take all the names. That's why,
like Navidia is like just in there with all these
other names you never heard of.
Speaker 3 (09:41):
It's like a face in the crowd.
Speaker 4 (09:42):
The reason that's good, in my opinion, for these themes
is that you want bigger bets on the smaller pure
plays because they tend to get bought by the Navidias
of the world, and you get a ton of money
on that acquisition, a ton of return. So COID to
me would be more probably more volatile, but you get
more m and a pop potentially and then human If
you look at the holdings, it's Tesla and Navidia top
(10:04):
two make up twenty percent of the portfolio right there. Well,
a lot of people already own those two companies in
other funds, so you can have a lot of overlap.
So that's something to consider when you're investing in these
But if you have Tesla Navidia at the top, it
will mean probably less volatility, so it'll be a slightly
calmer ride probably, But that's just these are the things
(10:27):
you have to weigh when you're buying a thematic ETF.
Speaker 3 (10:29):
But I do like that there's two choices.
Speaker 4 (10:32):
One's a little more market cap weighted and you know,
popular seeming, and the other one's a little more far
out there with equal weighting, and then people can decide
what's better best for them.
Speaker 1 (10:48):
Okay, we've talked about the humanoid space. What other spaces
do we want to talk about? With Loldana.
Speaker 2 (10:53):
Quantum is definitely a hot one. There's a pretty big
quantum etfqtum. So far this year it's already gathered more
than six hundred million in inflows. So it's definitely something
that I think people are just awakening too much, much
more because the ETF has been around for a couple
of years already, but so far this year it's already
(11:15):
on pace for a record year of inflows.
Speaker 1 (11:18):
Eric, how does that stack up for sort of a
cutting edge ETF that's you know, a pure thematic play.
Speaker 3 (11:25):
It's great.
Speaker 4 (11:26):
I mean, Quantum the ETF is a total hit. It's
the Defiance's number one best selling ETF. And you know
what's interesting about quantum the ETF also is it is
also equal weight. It might not be totally sometimes they
do just thing called modified equal weight.
Speaker 3 (11:43):
But either way, it's.
Speaker 4 (11:44):
More like KOID in that you're getting a lot of
more exposure to some of the more smaller peer plays,
and it's got looks like one point five billion. There's
a couple other ones on the market and they don't
really have much, so the one et from Defiance is
just basically like raked in the lion's share of assets here.
But another interesting thing on the quantum world, Joel, is
(12:06):
that if you remember the episode we did a little
while back on all of these hot sauce two x
stock ETFs, Oh, there's this huge trend in putting two
x on top of small quantum computing.
Speaker 3 (12:20):
Stocks and their hits.
Speaker 4 (12:24):
So there's the quantum theme, but there's also a huge
interest in really gambling on these juggernaut small quantum stocks.
One of them went up one hundred percent in one day,
so the stock went up fifty percent, the ETF went
up one hundred and that's the most pop and ETF
has ever had in a day.
Speaker 3 (12:42):
So there wow.
Speaker 4 (12:43):
And they're they're they're volatile, but that's part of that.
That's a feature, not a bug for the degend crowd
that trades these. I think the quantum theme would be
for a more like normalized long term play because you're diversifying,
you're actually taking volatively off the table. So again with ETFs,
there's something for buddy, as.
Speaker 1 (13:01):
Long as you're talking about super future stuff because quantum
is like, I mean, super speculative, like it's out there.
Maybe sometimes what the real world applications look like big
time tbd Uh. Can we talk about UFOs because I
love cheesse that it's like, you got to come back
to it.
Speaker 2 (13:19):
I know, I love this.
Speaker 1 (13:19):
So what's going on with UFOs?
Speaker 2 (13:22):
Matt Tuttle filed for of Tuttle Capital Management filed for
UFO based ETF.
Speaker 1 (13:28):
So it's UFOD yes.
Speaker 2 (13:30):
And it's pure conjecture at this point, just to be
very clear. But the idea is that there is potentially
some sort of alien tech that maybe revealed in filings
in you know, if the government releases records that type
of thing, where you might discover that there's something tied
(13:53):
to aliens there with R and D companies for example,
or defense contractors or those types of companies. And so
this tf would purportedly invest in those types of firms.
Speaker 1 (14:04):
I think Eric exhaled right when we pitched this. You
want to go ahead and take the micro in talk
about it.
Speaker 2 (14:09):
Did I get it right?
Speaker 1 (14:10):
Eric?
Speaker 4 (14:11):
Well, it's there's actually even more of an level here.
It's that the new administration is going to open up
the Area fifty one. Right, They're going to be real
liberal about letting all of this into the public domain,
sort of like the JFK, fils whatever. So they're going
to open up Area fifty one and all the research there,
and they think they're going to talk about the UFOs
(14:34):
they have there, and they're gonna like let the tech
where the I guess the architecture of these spaceships, and
that the big tech companies are going to steal the
alien tech and make money off of like applying the
alien tech and this ETS can attract all that.
Speaker 1 (14:54):
Have you read this filing? Have you read this via?
Speaker 3 (14:57):
I read it?
Speaker 4 (14:58):
I talked to Tuttle too before you laugh, and like,
you know, change the channel or whatever. Tuttle just hit
a home run with the europe Defense ETF. Remember this
is on our episode last time, which is it has
a billion dollars. He was the only one who foresaw this.
He launched it in October before the election, so he
(15:20):
kind of foresaw the election and then that pull out
from NATO or at least some threat of it, and
that increase spending from Europe, and boom, this theme has
taken off and he's the only one in this market.
Speaker 2 (15:34):
Now.
Speaker 4 (15:34):
I'm not saying this saw the same thing, but Tuttle
definitely is one of the probably the most experimental issueer
out there.
Speaker 3 (15:42):
But sometimes it works.
Speaker 4 (15:43):
And again, if it does work, it works big because
he's had the market to himself for months now too.
In Europe, they've got like a dozen of European defense
here's just one still and he has all the market.
Speaker 1 (15:56):
Okay, what happens if this doesn't work out?
Speaker 2 (16:00):
Nothing, he'll just we just close it and we're never going.
Speaker 1 (16:03):
To talk about it again. Okay, it hasn't launched yet,
so Eric, what has to happen for this to launch?
Speaker 4 (16:11):
Well, you know, the SEC may give him a little
pushback on the name and whether it's appropriate.
Speaker 3 (16:17):
Member.
Speaker 4 (16:17):
Every now and then, the SEC has issues with names.
They didn't want blockchain in the name when the blockchain
technology was early, so people had to make up different names.
They didn't want cannabis and marijuana in names, so they
had to work around that. And also, by the way,
Tuttle just filed for a government grift ETF, which is
a which is one that's trying to make money off
of like insider trading in Congress, and so that is
(16:41):
another one.
Speaker 3 (16:41):
Will they let that name through?
Speaker 4 (16:43):
Considering the SEC is part of the government anyway, Tuttle
is always pushing the bounds. I'm sure when his filings
come through, it's like a whole thing inside the SEC.
Speaker 1 (16:52):
I'm sure, but oh, here's this guy again.
Speaker 4 (16:54):
Legally, I think as long as the ETF does what
it says is going to do, they have to let
it out.
Speaker 1 (16:59):
And does it say anything about the kind of holdings
that would aspire to have.
Speaker 2 (17:04):
I think it's defense contractors R and D was mentioned
definitely in the filing. I just love the idea of
US finding about finding out about alien tech.
Speaker 1 (17:14):
We might talk about this one again, We'll see, I
really hope. Okay, so is the perfect segue into thematic
doesn't always work out, right, Like, let's talk about the metaverse,
that whole thing that Mark Zuckerberg get Facebook then meta
try to basically own and there were there were meta ETFs,
(17:37):
and those we don't talk about anymore, right, so what's
the risk of really speculative, niche thematic ETFs.
Speaker 2 (17:48):
I think we're the first people to utter the words
metaverse in like three years, which just goes to show
how much that fizzled out. Like I remember a couple
of years ago when when Facebook changed its name and
everybody it's all about the metaverse. But it was highly
speculative and you really needed people's buy in, and it
just didn't happen, and metaverse tied ETFs ended up closing,
(18:12):
So that fizzled pretty quickly. Nobody talks about it, and
nobody mentioned amazing.
Speaker 1 (18:17):
How quickly meta just pivoted to aire right too. Sorry.
Speaker 4 (18:22):
I will say that the metaverse ETF is outperforming the
S and P since launching, so it has been a
pretty good but it's kind of accidental. I mean, Apple's
the second biggest holding. It has Ethereum and Solana in it,
so it's got a crypto kick. Meta has had a
good run. I mean it's a lot of mag seven
plus Crypto, so and which has done pane AI. Sometimes
(18:44):
a theme goes up even if the theme sucks, which
tells you again, let's go back to the human ETF.
If you hold mostly mag Seven's thoughts, it doesn't really
matter what the hell.
Speaker 3 (18:55):
You call it.
Speaker 4 (18:57):
It's gonna move like the Mag seven And so this
to me is like kind of lucky. But by the way,
we had I think, do we have round hill on
or we just were speculating that they used to have
the ticker meta and they sold it to Mark Zuckerberg
and they for an amount that was undisclosed. So it
doesn't even matter if this ctf's a hit. They totally
got paid already. But I agree with you, the metaverse
(19:20):
just went away. Man, it's crazy almost like ESG, not
as bad, but close.
Speaker 1 (19:24):
Yeah, what other thematic plays are on either of your radars?
Speaker 2 (19:31):
There's mega trends, which Lazard is taking advantage of. They
launched a couple of ETFs in April. THMZ is one
of them. It's a mega trends ETF. So again, think
about like the way that they described it to me
is it's not stuff that's on page one of the newspapers,
stuff that's like on page thirty two, section C for example,
that's slowly making its way to the front. So again
(19:53):
you're getting in on the ground level, you're getting in early.
That type of thing.
Speaker 1 (19:57):
The stuff you haven't heard of, Yeah, exactly yet. Is
that just trying to capture everything across sort of this
kind of thematic universe.
Speaker 2 (20:06):
No, they also break it down into a couple of
different themes that they like, like software, apps and agents,
data and AI that type of thing. Future Health is
one of them. But THCHMZ is up twenty percent since
it's launched, so over the past two months, up twenty percent,
not bad, Eric, any on your radar.
Speaker 4 (20:25):
One that I'm actually we're looking at because it was
part of the May launches was the third Joal Monopoly ETF,
which basically invest in companies that like have somewhat of
a monopoly on their industry, sort of like the wide
mode ETF.
Speaker 3 (20:39):
It's not that novel, but I just.
Speaker 4 (20:43):
You know, there is the first monopoly ETF has fifty million,
the second one has nothing, and so here comes a
third one. And so this is where this becomes tough,
and the third one has a higher cost. I mean,
unless you have an extreme breakout, it can be tough.
So I think with thematic ETF, you do have to
be in it to win it. So you want to try,
and I hate to tell people not to try. But
(21:05):
I think at some point, you know, these these ETFs
are it's like we have a phrase on the team
sometimes when we see a filing, good luck with that.
Like when we see some legacy mutual fun company come
over with like an eighty basis point large cat blend
etf like good luck with that, Like like where have
you been it's like nineteen eighty five anymore? Okay, So
(21:27):
we want to have we want to actually have a
monthly note called good luck with that.
Speaker 3 (21:30):
But we're say it's a little too dark.
Speaker 1 (21:31):
I think I think there's an upcoming episode that we
can call good luck with that.
Speaker 4 (21:34):
And with good luck with that, it should be it
should be a recurring episode. But so that's one where
I just caught my attention, which is how big the
rush is.
Speaker 3 (21:44):
But here's the thing.
Speaker 4 (21:45):
If you look at all of the launches coming out,
the part of the problem is, like the regular stuff
Vanilla has been had, the vanilla space is over, like
Vanguard black Rock dominated. Even if you had success, there
have to be charging zero fees anyway. So part of
what's happening is if you're in the asset management space
(22:05):
and you're trying to get some organic flows, you kind
of have to try in a couple different areas. You know,
buffers Hot Sauce and thematics. You know in thematics probably
are one of the more sober versions of hot Sauce
because it is diversified. And if you can catch early
a theme, you're good because you can charge well over
fifty basis points in this category and you get a
(22:28):
color billion on like eighty basis points and you're in business.
So there's enough hits that it's almost a lottery ticket
system for the issuers as well as the investors. But again,
I think it's just tougher and tougher the later you are,
which is why we see so many themes coming.
Speaker 3 (22:46):
Out before they're ripe.
Speaker 4 (22:47):
I would argue the humanoid theme might not be totally
ripe enough. I mean, it's really far out there, but
they're going to try, and as the more pure plays
come in, the etf will become more pureish. But they
may put beta filler in there at first just to
try to get out early.
Speaker 1 (23:03):
And I had that first movie and advantage and kind
of like totally plant the flag. Okay, one more thematic, Eric,
what do you got?
Speaker 3 (23:19):
Yeah?
Speaker 4 (23:19):
So remember it must have been four years ago, right
around COVID early COVID.
Speaker 1 (23:25):
Yeah, it's like pandemic came back. Yeah.
Speaker 4 (23:27):
I came back from the inside ETF's conference, which is
now called Exchange, and I was in a new analyst
pitch competition or new ETF pitch competition between analysts, and
I pitched uranium.
Speaker 1 (23:39):
It.
Speaker 3 (23:40):
Honestly, it had like ten million.
Speaker 4 (23:42):
Dollars in assets this how early I was Joel and
one new one launched and I said, there's something going
on here. I think uranium could be good for green energy.
They now have close to ten billion in assets. So
within four years this theme that was like in oblivion
for you years and years. Uh, just the world turned
(24:04):
and uranium is part of nuclear has become more and
more accepted. It's used to power AI now. So sometimes
you just have to just hang around with your line
in the water and wait for the world to catch
up to your theme, and boom when it happens and
everybody's like, oh, this is obvious.
Speaker 1 (24:21):
You're like Tarpin tarpin On, we got a big one.
Speaker 3 (24:24):
I will say.
Speaker 4 (24:25):
R A was around for about eight years before this.
Then you are in. You aren m listed. That's what
caught my attention, and that one now has one point
seven billion. But r A was around for like ten
years and nobody cared.
Speaker 3 (24:36):
It sucked. It was down, and I give it credit.
It could have closed. Sometimes we see ets close right
before their number comes up.
Speaker 1 (24:43):
Yeah, we talked about that.
Speaker 4 (24:44):
But it hung in there and now it's three point
eight billion, So sometimes you could be ten years early.
Speaker 1 (24:49):
Joel ten just rope a dope.
Speaker 2 (24:52):
Eric just wanted us to know that he had.
Speaker 3 (24:54):
Yeah, it was really good because you know what, you know,
it's a sin.
Speaker 4 (25:00):
I came in like third or fourth place and mind
crushed everyone in terms of flows and popularity and just
being ahead of there.
Speaker 1 (25:10):
And none of them are here to defend any of
their but you know.
Speaker 2 (25:14):
Their pigs were probably like.
Speaker 4 (25:17):
And at the Academy wards and you look and you're like,
I can't believe so and so didn't win the Oscar
for that role giving himself on Oscar.
Speaker 1 (25:25):
Now, all right, on that note, we're gonna leave it.
Speaker 2 (25:30):
He missed out, but he's still bitter.
Speaker 1 (25:33):
But really everybody knows I deserve this. Bil Donna, keep
up the great work and we look forward to more
of your headlines. Thanks for having me, Thanks for listening
to trillions until next time. You can find us on
the Bloomberg terminal, Bloomberg dot com, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or
wherever else you like to listen. I'd love to hear
(25:55):
from you. Hit us up on social I'm at Joe
Weber Show, He's at Eric Balchinus. Billions is produced by
Magnus Hendrickson. Brendan Newman is our executive producer. Sage Bauman
is the head of Bloomberg Podcast
Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. Welcome to Shrillians. I'm
Joel Webber and I'm Eric Belchunis.
Speaker 2 (00:18):
Eric.
Speaker 1 (00:19):
You know what we're going to talk about today is
the future. How is it to invest in the future
with ETFs?
Speaker 3 (00:26):
Yeah, I mean, look, I immediately think of ARC.
Speaker 4 (00:28):
I think Kathy Wood in ARC really kind of put
this trade on the map of like trying to capture
trends that are five years from now. But I mean,
to her credit, even though the ETF has gone up
and down a lot, you know, robotaxis are actually happening.
You see clips of this. Surgeries that are remote are happening.
(00:50):
I've seen clips of this. So some of the stuff
that was discussed five years ago by her is sort
of coming true. And I think for investors, they like
to have their S and P. Five hundred and they
love that and you'll never.
Speaker 3 (01:02):
Get them to give it up.
Speaker 4 (01:04):
But they also don't want to miss out on some
of the stuff that might be happening early and then
speculative and tech oriented, and especially in the US, you know,
we are innovating all the time and people want to
capture that as best they can, and there's a void
to fill for investors, and that I think is where
(01:25):
thematic ETFs really deliver a lot of those sort of
up and coming themes, sometimes even before you've even heard
of the theme or the theme is even ripe.
Speaker 1 (01:34):
So we're going to talk about a certain story today.
The headline was Wall Street pitches sci fi ETFs for robots,
UFOs and quantum bets. That's by Bil Donna Hirich, cross
asset reporter with Bloomberg News. We will be joining us
on this episode, this time on Trillions Capturing the Future
(01:55):
with ETFs. Pil Donna, Welcome back to Trillions.
Speaker 2 (01:59):
Thanks so much for having this.
Speaker 1 (02:00):
So as we told you, when you put robots, UFOs
and quantum meaning quantum computer into a headline, that's like
the trifecta and you immediately like, we have an automated
email that goes out and invites you on trillion. So
really excited to talk to you about this today. As
Eric mentioned, ARC is sort of the poster child for
this style of investing, which is like we're gonna put
(02:21):
together a bunch of stuff in a portfolio that is
all supposed to be five to ten years in the future,
but now it's sort of like that's not even good
enough anymore. We have to get super narrow. How is
this manifesting in the market right, or maybe.
Speaker 2 (02:36):
A way to think about it is that issuers etf
fishers are starting to think about like the post ARC world,
like the post AI world, and they're thinking about these
themes like UFOs, like they're actually is a filing.
Speaker 1 (02:49):
For UFO to stick with the AI think because AI
was sort of like a super concentrated bet and there's
like forty products or something on the market.
Speaker 2 (02:57):
I think there's more than slightly more than forty, and
not all of them are attracting cash. Not all of
them are doing you know, up performing their benchmarks are
outperforming the SMP even so it's sort of like a
struggle there to attract attention and assets.
Speaker 1 (03:12):
But it's like move on already sold space literally so
or not even outer space, like humanoids is one of
the ones that you talk about, what's this? What's that?
Look like?
Speaker 2 (03:24):
Humanoids is so fun? I think. So when we're talking
about humanoids, we're talking about robots that Elon Musks is
hoping to put in your home to help you with
your chores.
Speaker 1 (03:35):
Is Tesla Optimus.
Speaker 2 (03:37):
Robot I think he even said at one point that
the robots will be expected to babysit, which.
Speaker 1 (03:43):
Well, you have you're a kid, like not even two
years ago, would you leave a kid? Not a chance, Eric.
Would you let a humanoid do some babysitting?
Speaker 3 (03:51):
Not yet? I mean it would take time for me
to come around that.
Speaker 4 (03:54):
Would you let it watch your parents? It depends how
what shape my parents were in. But I will say
I saw this movie after Yang with Colin Ferrell, which
really is I think a glimpse into living with a humanoid.
It's basically like what thirty years from now, and the
younger sister of the robot actually develops an emotional bond
(04:19):
and it's a whole thing.
Speaker 3 (04:20):
It's a great movie.
Speaker 1 (04:21):
To me.
Speaker 4 (04:21):
It feels like the closest that we're gonna get to
what will exist in that front. But it will take
twenty thirty years. I think my kids will be the
first to really adopt and you know, trust a robot
walking around the house and stuff.
Speaker 1 (04:36):
I mean, it's just getting out there. Yeah, real quick.
Speaker 4 (04:39):
Though on the humanoid one part of this though, you
said like AI and robotics, like it's still a hot theme.
Speaker 3 (04:44):
I mean there's like, I don't know.
Speaker 4 (04:47):
I think it might be the first or second biggest
theme out there at this point, but there are like
well over a dozen now, and so now it's like, Okay,
if you put robotics in AI out now, you're probably dead.
I mean unless you get lucky with performance. So humanoid
to me is sort of like, Okay, let's take the
AI robotics and actually like make it more narrow and
(05:08):
see if there's a market for that. But I will
say robotics and AI is such an impressive theme to
me because it's gotten a third bite at the apple,
let alone a second like it's hard to take in
a bunch of money. Robotics was huge like ten years ago.
Then it fell from grace normally that's it. The theme
kind of like lives in semi oblivion after that. But
(05:30):
then it came back and people bought it again. Then
it went down, and then it came back again and
people bought it, with Navidia in particular ushering in the
AI concept. And so I think this is one of
the most durable, long lasting themes is AI robotics. I
put humanoids in there as well, and there's money there.
I mean, there's a lot of potential still, but it's
(05:51):
getting more and more saturated.
Speaker 1 (05:53):
Okay, So the humanoid products, because there's now two ETFs,
what are they and how are they investing?
Speaker 2 (06:01):
There's one from Crane Shares and one from round Hill,
and they're investing it. They have slightly different investment thesis.
But the Crane Chairs one, for example, has like three
different things that it's looking for, like the brain for example.
Of the actual humanoids, like who's building those components and
the companies behind the robotics revolution. I guess we can
(06:25):
try to call it. I think it's there's a slight
tension here in that. You know, Eric said maybe in
thirty years will he'll have a robot in his home
to help with chores or whatever. Issuers want you to
get in on this now, expecting it to continue to
grow and grow. So Morgan Stanley for one, is expecting
(06:46):
it to be a five trillion industry by twenty thirty,
which is pretty soon. You know. Elon Musk says, robots
will be in your home sometime soon. Maybe they'll be
in Tesla factories supposedly over in the next six months
or so. These things definitely exist. The robots are helping
run different factories in Asia and other places, and so
(07:09):
it's here. It's just a matter of how much will
it grow and whether or not you want to be
in on the ground level, which is basically now.
Speaker 1 (07:16):
So the Crane Shares when you mentioned the ticker is
Coyd ko i D that came out in early June.
There's some companies that I've kind of never heard of,
jab El Inc, Linus, Rare Earths Limited, Amphenol Corp, Malexis.
And then you've got the navideos and the Tesla's in
the world, Like so many of these things are like,
you know, they're really trying to identify what a supply
(07:38):
chain for this stuff looks like, how do you get
exposure to it? So what the new one is human
hu m n from from Round Hill, from Roundhill, So
what's the approach that Roundho's.
Speaker 2 (07:51):
Taking round Hills is, Well, they're both actively managed. So
the roundhoer one is is focused solely on companies designing
and building humanoids. It's actively managed. It just launched, so
we'll see how those end up performing. I think actually
there's very little overlap between some of these companies and
(08:12):
some already existing robotics and other AI ETFs, which I
think is impressive. Like I spoke with Dave Nadig, who
we know is an ETF industry veteran, and even he said,
you know, it's pretty impressive that there's very little overlap
between some of these because you would have thought, maybe
on the outset, that the investible universe would have been small.
(08:34):
But there's quite a number of companies that you can
add into these ETFs that are internationally based, for example,
that are working on some of these things, whether it's
rare earth or chips or something in the supply chain.
Speaker 1 (08:46):
It's worth mentioning that some China humanoids are already in effect,
and like the YouTube videos are insane for those Eric,
what do you how many humanoid ETFs can the market sustain?
Speaker 4 (09:01):
Well, we got to see how popular these are. Probably
if I had to ballpark it three.
Speaker 3 (09:06):
But that's assuming. Yeah.
Speaker 4 (09:10):
I mean, one thing about the two ETFs that have launched,
Coid and human is that you got to look at
the holdings. You opened up Koid Jol and you said,
I don't recognize any of these names.
Speaker 1 (09:20):
I'm just the Yeah.
Speaker 4 (09:23):
I love that reaction when I open a theme ETF.
To me, that's what I want to see. I don't
want to recognize the names, and KOID looks like it's
mostly equal weighted, so you take all the names. That's why,
like Navidia is like just in there with all these
other names you never heard of.
Speaker 3 (09:41):
It's like a face in the crowd.
Speaker 4 (09:42):
The reason that's good, in my opinion, for these themes
is that you want bigger bets on the smaller pure
plays because they tend to get bought by the Navidias
of the world, and you get a ton of money
on that acquisition, a ton of return. So COID to
me would be more probably more volatile, but you get
more m and a pop potentially and then human If
you look at the holdings, it's Tesla and Navidia top
(10:04):
two make up twenty percent of the portfolio right there. Well,
a lot of people already own those two companies in
other funds, so you can have a lot of overlap.
So that's something to consider when you're investing in these
But if you have Tesla Navidia at the top, it
will mean probably less volatility, so it'll be a slightly
calmer ride probably, But that's just these are the things
(10:27):
you have to weigh when you're buying a thematic ETF.
Speaker 3 (10:29):
But I do like that there's two choices.
Speaker 4 (10:32):
One's a little more market cap weighted and you know,
popular seeming, and the other one's a little more far
out there with equal weighting, and then people can decide
what's better best for them.
Speaker 1 (10:48):
Okay, we've talked about the humanoid space. What other spaces
do we want to talk about? With Loldana.
Speaker 2 (10:53):
Quantum is definitely a hot one. There's a pretty big
quantum etfqtum. So far this year it's already gathered more
than six hundred million in inflows. So it's definitely something
that I think people are just awakening too much, much
more because the ETF has been around for a couple
of years already, but so far this year it's already
(11:15):
on pace for a record year of inflows.
Speaker 1 (11:18):
Eric, how does that stack up for sort of a
cutting edge ETF that's you know, a pure thematic play.
Speaker 3 (11:25):
It's great.
Speaker 4 (11:26):
I mean, Quantum the ETF is a total hit. It's
the Defiance's number one best selling ETF. And you know
what's interesting about quantum the ETF also is it is
also equal weight. It might not be totally sometimes they
do just thing called modified equal weight.
Speaker 3 (11:43):
But either way, it's.
Speaker 4 (11:44):
More like KOID in that you're getting a lot of
more exposure to some of the more smaller peer plays,
and it's got looks like one point five billion. There's
a couple other ones on the market and they don't
really have much, so the one et from Defiance is
just basically like raked in the lion's share of assets here.
But another interesting thing on the quantum world, Joel, is
(12:06):
that if you remember the episode we did a little
while back on all of these hot sauce two x
stock ETFs, Oh, there's this huge trend in putting two
x on top of small quantum computing.
Speaker 3 (12:20):
Stocks and their hits.
Speaker 4 (12:24):
So there's the quantum theme, but there's also a huge
interest in really gambling on these juggernaut small quantum stocks.
One of them went up one hundred percent in one day,
so the stock went up fifty percent, the ETF went
up one hundred and that's the most pop and ETF
has ever had in a day.
Speaker 3 (12:42):
So there wow.
Speaker 4 (12:43):
And they're they're they're volatile, but that's part of that.
That's a feature, not a bug for the degend crowd
that trades these. I think the quantum theme would be
for a more like normalized long term play because you're diversifying,
you're actually taking volatively off the table. So again with ETFs,
there's something for buddy, as.
Speaker 1 (13:01):
Long as you're talking about super future stuff because quantum
is like, I mean, super speculative, like it's out there.
Maybe sometimes what the real world applications look like big
time tbd Uh. Can we talk about UFOs because I
love cheesse that it's like, you got to come back
to it.
Speaker 2 (13:19):
I know, I love this.
Speaker 1 (13:19):
So what's going on with UFOs?
Speaker 2 (13:22):
Matt Tuttle filed for of Tuttle Capital Management filed for
UFO based ETF.
Speaker 1 (13:28):
So it's UFOD yes.
Speaker 2 (13:30):
And it's pure conjecture at this point, just to be
very clear. But the idea is that there is potentially
some sort of alien tech that maybe revealed in filings
in you know, if the government releases records that type
of thing, where you might discover that there's something tied
(13:53):
to aliens there with R and D companies for example,
or defense contractors or those types of companies. And so
this tf would purportedly invest in those types of firms.
Speaker 1 (14:04):
I think Eric exhaled right when we pitched this. You
want to go ahead and take the micro in talk
about it.
Speaker 2 (14:09):
Did I get it right?
Speaker 1 (14:10):
Eric?
Speaker 4 (14:11):
Well, it's there's actually even more of an level here.
It's that the new administration is going to open up
the Area fifty one. Right, They're going to be real
liberal about letting all of this into the public domain,
sort of like the JFK, fils whatever. So they're going
to open up Area fifty one and all the research there,
and they think they're going to talk about the UFOs
(14:34):
they have there, and they're gonna like let the tech
where the I guess the architecture of these spaceships, and
that the big tech companies are going to steal the
alien tech and make money off of like applying the
alien tech and this ETS can attract all that.
Speaker 1 (14:54):
Have you read this filing? Have you read this via?
Speaker 3 (14:57):
I read it?
Speaker 4 (14:58):
I talked to Tuttle too before you laugh, and like,
you know, change the channel or whatever. Tuttle just hit
a home run with the europe Defense ETF. Remember this
is on our episode last time, which is it has
a billion dollars. He was the only one who foresaw this.
He launched it in October before the election, so he
(15:20):
kind of foresaw the election and then that pull out
from NATO or at least some threat of it, and
that increase spending from Europe, and boom, this theme has
taken off and he's the only one in this market.
Speaker 2 (15:34):
Now.
Speaker 4 (15:34):
I'm not saying this saw the same thing, but Tuttle
definitely is one of the probably the most experimental issueer
out there.
Speaker 3 (15:42):
But sometimes it works.
Speaker 4 (15:43):
And again, if it does work, it works big because
he's had the market to himself for months now too.
In Europe, they've got like a dozen of European defense
here's just one still and he has all the market.
Speaker 1 (15:56):
Okay, what happens if this doesn't work out?
Speaker 2 (16:00):
Nothing, he'll just we just close it and we're never going.
Speaker 1 (16:03):
To talk about it again. Okay, it hasn't launched yet,
so Eric, what has to happen for this to launch?
Speaker 4 (16:11):
Well, you know, the SEC may give him a little
pushback on the name and whether it's appropriate.
Speaker 3 (16:17):
Member.
Speaker 4 (16:17):
Every now and then, the SEC has issues with names.
They didn't want blockchain in the name when the blockchain
technology was early, so people had to make up different names.
They didn't want cannabis and marijuana in names, so they
had to work around that. And also, by the way,
Tuttle just filed for a government grift ETF, which is
a which is one that's trying to make money off
of like insider trading in Congress, and so that is
(16:41):
another one.
Speaker 3 (16:41):
Will they let that name through?
Speaker 4 (16:43):
Considering the SEC is part of the government anyway, Tuttle
is always pushing the bounds. I'm sure when his filings
come through, it's like a whole thing inside the SEC.
Speaker 1 (16:52):
I'm sure, but oh, here's this guy again.
Speaker 4 (16:54):
Legally, I think as long as the ETF does what
it says is going to do, they have to let
it out.
Speaker 1 (16:59):
And does it say anything about the kind of holdings
that would aspire to have.
Speaker 2 (17:04):
I think it's defense contractors R and D was mentioned
definitely in the filing. I just love the idea of
US finding about finding out about alien tech.
Speaker 1 (17:14):
We might talk about this one again, We'll see, I
really hope. Okay, so is the perfect segue into thematic
doesn't always work out, right, Like, let's talk about the metaverse,
that whole thing that Mark Zuckerberg get Facebook then meta
try to basically own and there were there were meta ETFs,
(17:37):
and those we don't talk about anymore, right, so what's
the risk of really speculative, niche thematic ETFs.
Speaker 2 (17:48):
I think we're the first people to utter the words
metaverse in like three years, which just goes to show
how much that fizzled out. Like I remember a couple
of years ago when when Facebook changed its name and
everybody it's all about the metaverse. But it was highly
speculative and you really needed people's buy in, and it
just didn't happen, and metaverse tied ETFs ended up closing,
(18:12):
So that fizzled pretty quickly. Nobody talks about it, and
nobody mentioned amazing.
Speaker 1 (18:17):
How quickly meta just pivoted to aire right too. Sorry.
Speaker 4 (18:22):
I will say that the metaverse ETF is outperforming the
S and P since launching, so it has been a
pretty good but it's kind of accidental. I mean, Apple's
the second biggest holding. It has Ethereum and Solana in it,
so it's got a crypto kick. Meta has had a
good run. I mean it's a lot of mag seven
plus Crypto, so and which has done pane AI. Sometimes
(18:44):
a theme goes up even if the theme sucks, which
tells you again, let's go back to the human ETF.
If you hold mostly mag Seven's thoughts, it doesn't really
matter what the hell.
Speaker 3 (18:55):
You call it.
Speaker 4 (18:57):
It's gonna move like the Mag seven And so this
to me is like kind of lucky. But by the way,
we had I think, do we have round hill on
or we just were speculating that they used to have
the ticker meta and they sold it to Mark Zuckerberg
and they for an amount that was undisclosed. So it
doesn't even matter if this ctf's a hit. They totally
got paid already. But I agree with you, the metaverse
(19:20):
just went away. Man, it's crazy almost like ESG, not
as bad, but close.
Speaker 1 (19:24):
Yeah, what other thematic plays are on either of your radars?
Speaker 2 (19:31):
There's mega trends, which Lazard is taking advantage of. They
launched a couple of ETFs in April. THMZ is one
of them. It's a mega trends ETF. So again, think
about like the way that they described it to me
is it's not stuff that's on page one of the newspapers,
stuff that's like on page thirty two, section C for example,
that's slowly making its way to the front. So again
(19:53):
you're getting in on the ground level, you're getting in early.
That type of thing.
Speaker 1 (19:57):
The stuff you haven't heard of, Yeah, exactly yet. Is
that just trying to capture everything across sort of this
kind of thematic universe.
Speaker 2 (20:06):
No, they also break it down into a couple of
different themes that they like, like software, apps and agents,
data and AI that type of thing. Future Health is
one of them. But THCHMZ is up twenty percent since
it's launched, so over the past two months, up twenty percent,
not bad, Eric, any on your radar.
Speaker 4 (20:25):
One that I'm actually we're looking at because it was
part of the May launches was the third Joal Monopoly ETF,
which basically invest in companies that like have somewhat of
a monopoly on their industry, sort of like the wide
mode ETF.
Speaker 3 (20:39):
It's not that novel, but I just.
Speaker 4 (20:43):
You know, there is the first monopoly ETF has fifty million,
the second one has nothing, and so here comes a
third one. And so this is where this becomes tough,
and the third one has a higher cost. I mean,
unless you have an extreme breakout, it can be tough.
So I think with thematic ETF, you do have to
be in it to win it. So you want to try,
and I hate to tell people not to try. But
(21:05):
I think at some point, you know, these these ETFs
are it's like we have a phrase on the team
sometimes when we see a filing, good luck with that.
Like when we see some legacy mutual fun company come
over with like an eighty basis point large cat blend
etf like good luck with that, Like like where have
you been it's like nineteen eighty five anymore? Okay, So
(21:27):
we want to have we want to actually have a
monthly note called good luck with that.
Speaker 3 (21:30):
But we're say it's a little too dark.
Speaker 1 (21:31):
I think I think there's an upcoming episode that we
can call good luck with that.
Speaker 4 (21:34):
And with good luck with that, it should be it
should be a recurring episode. But so that's one where
I just caught my attention, which is how big the
rush is.
Speaker 3 (21:44):
But here's the thing.
Speaker 4 (21:45):
If you look at all of the launches coming out,
the part of the problem is, like the regular stuff
Vanilla has been had, the vanilla space is over, like
Vanguard black Rock dominated. Even if you had success, there
have to be charging zero fees anyway. So part of
what's happening is if you're in the asset management space
(22:05):
and you're trying to get some organic flows, you kind
of have to try in a couple different areas. You know,
buffers Hot Sauce and thematics. You know in thematics probably
are one of the more sober versions of hot Sauce
because it is diversified. And if you can catch early
a theme, you're good because you can charge well over
fifty basis points in this category and you get a
(22:28):
color billion on like eighty basis points and you're in business.
So there's enough hits that it's almost a lottery ticket
system for the issuers as well as the investors. But again,
I think it's just tougher and tougher the later you are,
which is why we see so many themes coming.
Speaker 3 (22:46):
Out before they're ripe.
Speaker 4 (22:47):
I would argue the humanoid theme might not be totally
ripe enough. I mean, it's really far out there, but
they're going to try, and as the more pure plays
come in, the etf will become more pureish. But they
may put beta filler in there at first just to
try to get out early.
Speaker 1 (23:03):
And I had that first movie and advantage and kind
of like totally plant the flag. Okay, one more thematic, Eric,
what do you got?
Speaker 3 (23:19):
Yeah?
Speaker 4 (23:19):
So remember it must have been four years ago, right
around COVID early COVID.
Speaker 1 (23:25):
Yeah, it's like pandemic came back. Yeah.
Speaker 4 (23:27):
I came back from the inside ETF's conference, which is
now called Exchange, and I was in a new analyst
pitch competition or new ETF pitch competition between analysts, and
I pitched uranium.
Speaker 1 (23:39):
It.
Speaker 3 (23:40):
Honestly, it had like ten million.
Speaker 4 (23:42):
Dollars in assets this how early I was Joel and
one new one launched and I said, there's something going
on here. I think uranium could be good for green energy.
They now have close to ten billion in assets. So
within four years this theme that was like in oblivion
for you years and years. Uh, just the world turned
(24:04):
and uranium is part of nuclear has become more and
more accepted. It's used to power AI now. So sometimes
you just have to just hang around with your line
in the water and wait for the world to catch
up to your theme, and boom when it happens and
everybody's like, oh, this is obvious.
Speaker 1 (24:21):
You're like Tarpin tarpin On, we got a big one.
Speaker 3 (24:24):
I will say.
Speaker 4 (24:25):
R A was around for about eight years before this.
Then you are in. You aren m listed. That's what
caught my attention, and that one now has one point
seven billion. But r A was around for like ten
years and nobody cared.
Speaker 3 (24:36):
It sucked. It was down, and I give it credit.
It could have closed. Sometimes we see ets close right
before their number comes up.
Speaker 1 (24:43):
Yeah, we talked about that.
Speaker 4 (24:44):
But it hung in there and now it's three point
eight billion, So sometimes you could be ten years early.
Speaker 1 (24:49):
Joel ten just rope a dope.
Speaker 2 (24:52):
Eric just wanted us to know that he had.
Speaker 3 (24:54):
Yeah, it was really good because you know what, you know,
it's a sin.
Speaker 4 (25:00):
I came in like third or fourth place and mind
crushed everyone in terms of flows and popularity and just
being ahead of there.
Speaker 1 (25:10):
And none of them are here to defend any of
their but you know.
Speaker 2 (25:14):
Their pigs were probably like.
Speaker 4 (25:17):
And at the Academy wards and you look and you're like,
I can't believe so and so didn't win the Oscar
for that role giving himself on Oscar.
Speaker 1 (25:25):
Now, all right, on that note, we're gonna leave it.
Speaker 2 (25:30):
He missed out, but he's still bitter.
Speaker 1 (25:33):
But really everybody knows I deserve this. Bil Donna, keep
up the great work and we look forward to more
of your headlines. Thanks for having me, Thanks for listening
to trillions until next time. You can find us on
the Bloomberg terminal, Bloomberg dot com, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or
wherever else you like to listen. I'd love to hear
(25:55):
from you. Hit us up on social I'm at Joe
Weber Show, He's at Eric Balchinus. Billions is produced by
Magnus Hendrickson. Brendan Newman is our executive producer. Sage Bauman
is the head of Bloomberg Podcast
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