May 14, 2025 • 26 mins
We’re stepping back from the recent series of reversals, deals and temporary ceasefires in Donald Trump’s trade war to ask a few questions—namely does the US president have a strategy, and if so how’s it going and what comes next?
Stephen Moore, the author of The Trump Economic Miracle and a senior fellow in economics at the Heritage Foundation, and Bloomberg Senior White House Reporter Josh Wingrove join.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:02):
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2 (00:08):
If we can get these trade deals done, if we
can get the tax cut down, those two things, if
they happen in the next three to six months, we're
going to see the biggest boom you ever saw. You're
going to see the stock marker go through the roof.
You're going to see the United States as sucking capital
in from the rest of the world. I'm bullish.
Speaker 3 (00:34):
I'm Stephanie Flander's head of Government and Economics at Bloomberg.
Welcome to Trumponomics, the podcast that looks at the economic
world of Donald Trump, how he's already shaped the global economy.
What on earth is going to happen next? This week,
we're stepping back from the string of trade deals, pauses,
and all round events of the past week or so
to ask where are we in Donald Trump's grand strategy
(00:56):
for the US economy? What comes next? We've had a
kind of trade piece breakout between the US and China
just this weekend, which in turn has produced a kind
of recovery in the US stock market. Of course, there's
plenty of unanswered questions about this ninety day pause in
the very high tariffs that both countries had imposed on
each other, US and China, and we had that other
(01:18):
ninety day pause. Won't last that much longer on the
tariffs imposed on everyone else. But for now we're forgetting
about tariffs, or at least the world seems to be,
and it's onto the next big thing, which is tax cuts.
Hours after that US China truce was announced, House Republicans
in Congress released a multi trillion dollar draft tax bill
containing many of Donald Trump's campaign tax pledges, things like
(01:42):
no taxes on tips and overtime pay, and new tax
breaks for car buyers and seniors. Also, crucially, that bill
makes permanent the lower individual tax rates that were passed
in Trump's first term in twenty seventeen. Well, we recorded
this conversation on Tuesday morning, US time, just as people
(02:05):
in Washington were still getting to grips with a detail
of that big bill. But we had exactly the right
guests to help us put all of this in context.
Josh Wingrove, senior reporter for Bloomberg's White House team, who
can tell us something of the mood in Washington in
Congress and the West Wing. And Stephen Moore, economist and
the author most recently of the book The Trump Economic
(02:27):
Miracle and the Plan to Unleash Prosperity Again, among other things.
Stephen has advised Donald Trump's twenty sixteen presidential campaign, and
he's now serving as a Senior Fellow in economics at
the Heritage Foundation. Stephen, thank you very much for doing this.
(02:48):
I know it's a very busy week. So if you
just sort of stepped back on these first few months,
how do you think he's doing well.
Speaker 2 (02:55):
I like most of what Trump has done. I'm a
big fan of the tax cut. In fact, Lary Cudler
and I wrote the very first version of the Trump
tax cut back in twenty sixteen when he first started
running for president, and of course in the weeks and
maybe months ahead, we're going to try to finalize making
that tax cut permanent and making other changes. So I'm
a big fan of that. I like what he's doing
(03:15):
potentially saving a trillion dollars in deregulation costs. I like
the fact that he's promoting pro American energy policy that
uses oil or gas or coal or nuclear power, everything
we've got. So I'm very supportive of most things Trump
has done. As you know, i'm a kind of old
fashioned Milton Friedman, free trader. So I'm not a big
fan of tariffs. But if Trump can pull this off
(03:38):
and can get other countries to reduce their TIFFs, which
is his objective, that would be a very positive thing
for growth and for trade. But boy, it's been a
bumpy road.
Speaker 3 (03:48):
We will get onto some of the tax side of
things and maybe deregulation. But because you had raised publicly
some concerns about the economic impact of those tariffs, how
are you reading the last few weeks do you think
or the last few days do you think there has
been a real change of approach from the administration. You know,
we're having a deal with certainly the Chinese feel they
got everything that they wanted in that initial negotiation with
(04:10):
Scott Besson or is it too soon to say?
Speaker 2 (04:14):
Maybe a little too soon to say. But the last
couple of weeks have been enormously successful for Trump. We've had,
as you know, we've had a major, major comeback in
our stock market, so that's been good. A lot of
people lost a lot of money in March. In April,
it may has been a pretty good month. You know,
you never know what Trump, whether this was the grand design,
He's a very good negotiator. He's a very clever guy.
(04:36):
He's always underestimated by his political opposition. So I think that,
for example, when he said, well, we're going to put
one hundred and twenty five percent tarosun China, and then
when he said, well, maybe we'll go down in the
press at oh, there is is retreating, but that may
have been part of the plan all along, is to
start with a very high number and bring it down
as a negotiating tactic. I do believe that the UK
(04:59):
deal betwe in the US and the UK was a
great deal for both sides of the Atlantic. And I
think if this China thing can be consummated I don't
know where exactly it is in its negotiating phase, then
I think you're getting got a domino effect, and I
think you'll get a lot of other countries knocking on
the door and saying let's make a deal. And that's
exactly what Trump has always wanted to see.
Speaker 3 (05:21):
As you point out, the markets have certainly responded well
in the last week or so. The line is this
trade war was all the ninth series of Dallas. It
was all why it was all well, you know, Bobby
Ewing was the was in the shower, But as Josh
was reminding me as we were speaking earlier, I mean,
the effective tariff rate that we're left with even now,
at these kind of ceasefire levels, is very similar or
(05:42):
higher to the Smoot Hawley level. Even that UK trade
deal quote unquote leaves trade between the two countries kind
of in many ways less open than it was before
Donald Trump came to office. Our own economists think that
the tarifs in place now even and if they stay
at these lower levels, would mean over time a seventy
(06:03):
percent fall in Chinese exports to the US. Are we
underestimating how much damage could still be done by these tariffs?
Speaker 2 (06:11):
Boy, that's a good question. It's a tough question to answer,
because I do think there may be a little bit
of a rational exuberance here. The market so much wanted
to see a deal and end to this turbulence that
maybe they're reading too much. I don't know if they
are or not, but it's certainly a possibility. I do
think there's still going to be a lot of turbulence
(06:31):
in the months to come as we start to try
to hopefully finalize these things. But I also think that
the Trump administration was a little bit taken aback by
how negatively the international markets responded to the tariff wars,
and therefore they strategically tried to cut these deals as
a way to stop the turbulence. They're not stupid. They
(06:54):
realized that you had a falling dollar, hat a falling
stock market. You had a lot of factories in the
which were only running at fifty percent capacity because they
couldn't get the inputs and the raw materials they needed
to produce their products. Hopefully the worst of the turbulence
is over. I'm still hopeful that at the end of
the day, which would be in the next say, six months,
(07:16):
that we're going to see freer and fairer trade. In
other words, I do think that these other nations, the Europeans,
the Koreans, India, Japan, are going to have to lower
their terrifts, and Trump is kind of flexing our muscle
as a way to force these countries to do that.
Speaker 3 (07:34):
Josh, you and nodding when we're talking about irrational exuberance.
Speaker 1 (07:38):
I think Trump has shifted the conversation a lot here, right, So,
even when he's retreating back to levels that when he
said them campaign right were I popping to people, he
talked about ten percent global tariffs and maybe a sixty
percent tariff on China. In the campaign. He's sort of
generally in the ballpark of that. So I think I
would just say a couple points. Steve, I'm sure would
(07:59):
agree with the first one. Trump loves tariffs. Some people
are trying to parse the logic and strategy, and there
might be some, but the guy just likes them. He
talks about them both as a revenue tool. He talked
about them as an incentive to push things back, and
when business groups who've been very silent comparatively throughout the
(08:19):
process of this come to him and say, our factories
in the American heartland cannot get their inputs right now
because right right they just don't seem particularly a responsive,
at least publicly to those concerns. So he likes tariffs.
And the other thing that I would mention is like,
there's more to come still right now as we right
we've got these outstanding two three two investigations. We're expecting
(08:42):
those tariffs speak of like, you know, exuberance. When he
exempted so many consumer goods, particularly in China from that
China tariff, including you know, I.
Speaker 3 (08:51):
Feel like the electronics electronics, right.
Speaker 1 (08:54):
The stated reason for that is because he plans to
hit them with a different caraff which seems like it
will be twenty five percent, if only because that's what
every other sectoral tariff has been, which of course is
higher than the current ten percent pause level on China.
So it's it's a break. But he's planning on hitting
these industries with that semiconducted tariff, a lumber tariff, copper
tariff is still to come. These things are still coming
(09:16):
down the pipe here, and so I think that people
who are looking at this as the sort of level
set moment. Secretary Beson of course talked about ten percent
as a floor. He's also talked about those April second
numbers as a ceiling if people don't de escalate. But
there's other stuff to come in other streams, and the
overall effect of tariff it is probably going to go up,
(09:37):
not damp from where it is today.
Speaker 4 (09:40):
Well, I'm getting dizzy from all these numbers you're throwing
top of the different rafy. Oh he's a different thing.
And actually there's a serious point here though, and you're
quite right, Trump has a different view of tariffs than say,
a free trader like I do what he wants to do.
And I think there is something to this as an American,
which is that for the first one hundred years of
(10:00):
our country or more, we did not have an income tax,
you know, and we made a big mistake in nineteen
sixteen we adopted an income tax. I think that was
one of our greatest mistakes as a nation. And what
Trump is saying is, wouldn't it be better if our
tax system was through tarifsts, not taxes, income taxing? And
he's right, yes, that would be better.
Speaker 2 (10:18):
Income taxes have very negative effects on the economy, much
more so than terrorists do. And so what he wants
to do is he wants to reduce the taxes that
are imposed on things that are made in Michigan or
Maine or Montana and increase the taxes on things that
are made in China or Japan and Korea and other nations.
And as American, yeah, that seems to make a lot
(10:40):
of sense. Why would we punish our own producers. Why
not put a higher tax on the things that are
coming into the country. And Trump is also right, by
the way, that for the first one hundred and twenty
five years of our country. That's essentially how we tax.
Now that being said, one of the things I object
to about the Trump strategy is exactly kind of embedded
in your question. You mentioned ten different teriff rates, and
(11:03):
I don't like this idea of picking winners and losers.
If we're going to have a terrraff policy, let's just
have a fifteen percent across the board tariff import tariff.
Anytime something comes in the United States, you're going to
pay a tax on it. I don't like this idea
of saying, Okay, well we like this industry, we're going
to protect that protect that industry. And by the way,
if you get a meeting in the White House, we
could lower your terraff for you. I don't think that's
(11:24):
the way tax system should work.
Speaker 3 (11:26):
Steve, you just touched on it. And of course, the
suspicion is that one of the reasons that he not
only likes tariffs which are changeable by executive action and
not only by Congress, but specifically these very variable country
by country tariffs, even company by company in some cases
in effect, is the power that it gives Donald Trump
(11:48):
to be doing these favors for people and doing deals.
I mean, knowing him as you do, is that a
big part of what he likes about this strategy.
Speaker 2 (11:56):
I can really answer that, but I will say this
that I don't think it's a good way to make policy.
Let's say that Kamala Harris had won the election, and
let's say she said, Oh, you know, we have to
worry about climate change, so we're going to put all
these tariffs. I'm just going to unilaterly declare an emergency
and we're going to have tariffs on this. That the
other thing, Well, the Republicans would be going crazy. Oh,
she'd the dictator. She can't just impose this tax. Look,
(12:19):
our constitution very clear taxes start in the House of Representatives.
That's in our constitution. And so what Congress has done
is essentially delegated this so called emergency powers to the president.
And I don't think that's good for our system of government.
I think that these should be approved by Congress. It's
just a matter of accountability. I'd probably a minority of
my party on that, because Trump is a very powerful
(12:41):
president and the party does what he wants. But I'm
not so sure in the long run. So that's a
good way to make tax policies.
Speaker 1 (12:48):
You're not alone entirely in your party on that right,
including Chuck Grassley and other Republican senators have lent their
name to a bill reclaiming some of this tariff power.
Trump has really pushed the limits or tested them, shall
we say, like what a president can do unilaterally on tariffs?
By the way, I think there is a little kinton
his strategy here because he's using AEPA to do a
(13:09):
lot of these across the board country tariffs. Trade lawyers
say that that is flimsier than other ways, like the
two three two tariffs are the three oh one tariffs,
Those are more bulletproof, and those are the ones he's
using for the sectoral tariffs on steel cars, that kind
of thing.
Speaker 3 (13:24):
Stephen, I know you want to come in, but just
in case people didn't know, so that IPA, that's the
International Emergency Economic Powers Act, which lets the president impose
tariffs in times of economic emergency. So he's citing an
emergency relating to the trade deficit.
Speaker 2 (13:39):
Let me just say one thing in response to that
both of your questions, which is that to defend Trump
on this for a moment, and again I'm not a
big fan of the terror policy, but it is true.
I mean when Trump ran for president, he ran around
the country saying, tariff is my favorite word, and if
you will like me, I'm going to put these tariffs on.
And guess what middle class blue collar America kind of
(13:59):
like that idea. They are concerned about the factories leaving
and the jobs leaving. One of my concerns is, you know,
with the terror strategy, is are we chasing the jobs
of the twentieth century not the jobs of the twenty
first century, because let's face it, in ten years, there
won't be factory jobs. Everything will be done by robots.
So you know, I want to make sure that we
have an economy that's retro fitted for you know, the
(14:21):
twenty twenties and twenty thirties, not for the nineteen twenties
and nineteen thirties.
Speaker 3 (14:26):
Let's get onto the tax bill, because of course, journalists,
we're also kind of turning our eyes to the next
big thing. You know, US China trade will all over
at least for a couple of months. So now we're
focused on the tax bill that we saw come through
late on Monday this week, and it has a lot
of the things that Donald Trump campaigned, or not just
(14:46):
making those individual tax cuts that you mentioned, Steve permanent,
but some of the other measures, like eliminating some of
the taxes on tips and other things. Using some fairly
creative or at least non stand accounting, it supposedly adds
to the deficit three point seven trillion dollars over ten years.
(15:08):
I know you're a fan of doing many of those things,
but you're also a fan of smaller government and lower deficits.
So I just wonder how you're feeling about that big,
beautiful bill.
Speaker 2 (15:17):
Well, first of all, it's this just so your audience
understands failure is not an option here, because if this
does not get done by December thirty, First, you know,
we're facing the biggest tax increase in American history. Every
middle class family would pay more, every small business would
pay more taxes, a lot of our corporations would pay more.
So they have to get this done. And most of
(15:38):
the tax bill is really just extending what's already in law.
And so now you're right, there are other things that
Trump wants to add to that that no tax on tips,
which is actually from a fiscal point of view, pretty irrelevant.
You don't raise a lot might be taxing tips anyway,
but you know, not taxes not.
Speaker 3 (15:56):
Now you may find you use a lot of money
when everyone decides their entire commentaries.
Speaker 2 (16:00):
Everywho's going to be a tip to boy because taxes
do affect people's behavior. But one of the ones that
I think is most important is the fifteen percent tax
rate for businesses. You know, he wants to cut our
corporate tax rate to fifteen percent, which I think would
be enormously beneficial from a strategic point of view. So
I'm a big fan of this bill. I don't believe
(16:21):
the numbers that you cited. I mean, I know those
are the right numbers, but I don't believe that it's
going to cost money. And I know that because the
same people forecast is going to lose three trillion or
whatever the number is. These are the same people who
said when we passed the tax bill in twenty seventeen,
you know, that could cost several trillion dollars, and we
now know just from a look back that they were
wrong by about one point five trillion. Because our tax
(16:43):
estimators always overestimate the revenue losses from cutting tax rates,
and they always overestimate the revenues that are going to
gain by raising taxes because they use a kind of
static analysis that doesn't take into account. You know, when
you cut taxes, good things for happen for the enemy.
Speaker 3 (17:00):
Josh, I know you were. You were also looking at
some of the details of this bill, and also, I
guess as a sign of a kind of relative influence
of the president over his party.
Speaker 1 (17:11):
Well, the fact that it's one big, beautiful bill is
itself a sign of the influence of the party because they,
you know, going back a couple of months, Republicans were
divided on that, namely, the House and the Senate were
divided on that. So Jason Smith, the ways means Chairman,
has come out with this bill that does maintain several
of Trump's priorities, including on taxation of tips, social Security one,
on auto loan interest deductibility, which is a one that
(17:34):
Trump loves, which allows you to write off the interest
payments on your car if you buy an American made car.
So that's in there. What isn't in there, interestingly, is
the very thing Steve mentioned that Trump has been calling
for the fifteen percent corporate tax rate on American manufacturers
down from the current twenty one percent. Trump had talked
about that. He'd also talked about lowering the twenty one
(17:57):
to twenty regardless of whether you manufacturing in the US. Instead,
they're doing a one hundred percent depreciation, which is essentially
a big carrot on a stick to build new factories
in America. The manufacturers group seem jazzed about that. You know,
they'll take it. They don't seem too concerned about the
lack of the corporate tax rate. But they are having
to pick and choose. And remember, as we sit here,
(18:18):
the US budget devicit is hovering it a shade under
two trillion annually, something like twenty one trillion over the
ten year budget window. And when we talk about three
point seven trillion, that's over that ten years for the
people that might be listening to us outside of the US,
And so you know, we're talking about a quite wide
budget gap over the coming decade. Now. Trump wants to
narrow that through the deregulation that Steve mentioned. He wants
(18:40):
to narrow that of course with tariff revenue. But you
still got a significant, significant budget shortfall, and of course
that's why Secretary Besson is watching that ten year to
try to see how markets are going to be digesting all.
Speaker 3 (18:52):
Of US, which has not come down.
Speaker 1 (18:53):
It has come down a bit if you've measured back
to January twentieth, when Trump took office, but it has
been rising pretty steadily here for a while. There are
concerns clearly in the bond market about the US direction
right now.
Speaker 3 (19:04):
Steve, you mentioned that the numbers will turn out to
be better than expected, but if you look at really,
on any assumptions, the US debt relative to GDP is
looking pretty unsustainable. I mean, the line keeps going up
no matter what you make. You know, almost any assumption
you would make, not least because of the higher cost
(19:24):
of money that we have now, even if it doesn't
go up so much from here.
Speaker 2 (19:28):
Well, there's no doubt about it that our national debt
is a clear and present danger, no question about it.
And you're also right that you know we're vulnerable to
an interest rate shot. As the world's biggest borrower, every
time interest rates go up, our borrowing expenses go up.
But I'm a growth hoart. What I care most about,
that's the overriding factor that drives all these numbers is jobs.
(19:49):
Economic growth and prosperity. And so what I've told the President,
I've told the speak of the House in Republicans, anything
that makes the economy grow faster, do you do it?
Speaker 3 (20:01):
Do it?
Speaker 1 (20:02):
Do it.
Speaker 2 (20:02):
Anything that makes the economy grow slower is going to
make our debt situation worse. So I want Republicans to
be focused on one thing, getting the keeping our economic
growth rate, which has been hovering at about one point
five one point six percent, get it back to the
three to three and a half percent growth rate, which
is our America's you know, normal growth rate. And if
you do that, if you get that economic growth rate
(20:25):
and that productivity up, then guess what that debt that
you're talking about is a share of our economy. It
doesn't go up from you know, currently one hundred percent
of GDP to two hundred percent of GDP, it actually
starts to fall. So growth is everything. We have a
president who's hyper focused on growing the economy, bringing jobs
back home, making our economy as efficient as possible through
(20:46):
things like deregulation. We're going to produce a lot more oil, gas,
and coal, so we can be the number one producer
of energy in the world, and all of those things
I think are good for growth, good for jobs, and
we'll make our deficit situation less hazardous in the future.
Speaker 3 (21:02):
Okay, but if you think of just the balance of
policies and where the emphasis has been in the last
few months, do you feel like there has been enough
focus on growth? A lot of the growth rate that
you talked about just now came from immigration, came from
the tax cuts that we're just making permanent. As you
pointed out, there's no change of policy, so it's just
keeping things as they are, which doesn't necessarily give you
(21:23):
an extra burst. And also from some of the trade
that has happened back and forth between Mexico and Canada
and other things, some of these industries that are now
going to be disrupted by the tariff. So if you
think about deregulation, you know, has there been enough focus
on that?
Speaker 2 (21:37):
As I said earlier, I really do believe if we
can get these trade deals done, if we can get
the tax cut down, those two things, if that happen
in the next three to six months, and you heard
it first here on your show on Bloomberg, We're going
to see the biggest boom you ever saw. You're going
to see the stock marker go through the roof, you're
going to see the United States a sucking capital in
(21:57):
from the rest of the world has happened like in
the Reagan era. So I'm bullish. I'm bullish out America
right now now that those are the two big ifs though.
If we can get the trade deals done and if
we can get the tax cut done, those are the
two highest priorities for Trump. And I wouldn't better gun Stem.
Speaker 3 (22:16):
You have always been someone who was focused on the
business agenda and the agenda for growth, and you just
talked about it here. The judgments that investors have made,
even as the S and P has gone back up
in the last few weeks, is the dollar is still
weaker and the other markets are actually doing better because
they think fundamentally the US is going to go backwards
with these policies that are trying to take them out
(22:37):
of a globally integrated economy. Do you not worry that
when the dust settles, you might be okay, but you're
still going to be a step back from where you
would have been because of this effort to pull you
out of an integrated global economy.
Speaker 2 (22:50):
I do worry about that. And I think actually one
of the things that's that some of my friends in
the Trump administration not fully appreciate is one of the
things that's made the American account on me so strong
over the last forty years since you know, the running
of the Reagan era, is that we are are incredibly
globally integrated. And you know that, I think a lot
of people don't appreciate. You know why it is that
(23:12):
the factories here are being harmed by the terrorists because
actually this was supposed to bring jobs back to the
United States, and in fact instead that factories have had
to layoff workers because we you know, as I talked
one manufacturer said, look, I get we get our seal
from Japan, we get our we get our copper from Vietnam,
we get our parts from Mexico. We got our lumber
(23:34):
from Canada. So we are incredibly globally integrated. It makes
our economy very efficient, and we don't want to lose
that edge. And that's why we've got to get these
trade deals done in a way that benefits America but
also benefits global growth. And I can't guarantee it, but
I think over the next three to six monitor to
see a lot of improvement in the trade turmoil that
(23:56):
right now is dominating the markets.
Speaker 3 (23:58):
Steven, we will remember that in a few months time.
Thank you very much for joining us.
Speaker 2 (24:03):
And when I'm right, I watch you to help me
back on it.
Speaker 3 (24:07):
We will any time. Josh, having interviewed him a million
years ago, he's always very enthusiastic and bullish, which makes
for a good interview. But when you're talking to people
in and around the White House and on the Hill,
are people feeling that bullish now that you've got some
of these trade deals under way.
Speaker 1 (24:25):
I think Republicans have exhaled a little bit, but the
bullish thing is I think a step too far yet,
because the deals that we've seen have been pretty modest.
Some cans have been kicked down the road, and of
course big deals hang in the air. Steve talked about
Japan and South Korea. Those are really two big tests
(24:45):
because the UK deal had way few thornier issues than
those ones will. And you know, it's difficult to see
how a fundamental deal comes together if Trump wants to,
for instance, keep it twenty five percent auto tariff on
two crucial sectors for those two economies. And so I
think right now, the Republican complaints about this have quieted.
(25:09):
The sort of subtle momentum towards a bill to recapture
some of the tariff power in Congress has abated, and
the focus is on getting this tax bill passed. Bessen
talks about it the Treasury Secretary about three legs of
the stool, right, not only tariffs, but the tax cuts
and the deregulation. They're really racing to get these tax
(25:29):
cuts done by July fourth, by the way, right, so
we had Liberation Day on April second, we're going to
celebrate Independan's Day allegedly by signing a big tax cut package. Here,
they're sort of just biting their tongue and holding their
breath in a lot of cases that this is all
going to work out. But clearly there's unease, and I
should not leave any suggestion that I'm saying that some
(25:50):
revolt is coming. President Trump continues to have very strong
support in his party. People are not speaking out emphatically
against him. You get sort of comments about tariffs here
and there, but right now he's sort of full steam ahead.
Speaker 3 (26:05):
Well, I guess we will see. I will certainly be
checking in with you and maybe we should check in
with Stephen Moore in a few months time see if
his bullish predictions have turned out. But Josh Wingo, thanks
very much, Thank you for having me, Thanks for listening
to Trump andomics from Bloomberg. It was hosted by me,
Stephanie Flanders, and I was joined by Bloomberg's Josh Wingrove
(26:27):
and the Heritage Foundation Stephen Moore. Trump and Noomics is
produced by Summer Sadi and Moses and Am with help
from Chris martinlu Tala Amadi and Amy Keen. Sound design
is by Robert Williams and special thanks to Jared Rudderman.
Brendan Francis Newnan is our executive producer. To help others
(26:47):
find the show, please rate and review it highly wherever
you find your podcasts.
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2 (00:08):
If we can get these trade deals done, if we
can get the tax cut down, those two things, if
they happen in the next three to six months, we're
going to see the biggest boom you ever saw. You're
going to see the stock marker go through the roof.
You're going to see the United States as sucking capital
in from the rest of the world. I'm bullish.
Speaker 3 (00:34):
I'm Stephanie Flander's head of Government and Economics at Bloomberg.
Welcome to Trumponomics, the podcast that looks at the economic
world of Donald Trump, how he's already shaped the global economy.
What on earth is going to happen next? This week,
we're stepping back from the string of trade deals, pauses,
and all round events of the past week or so
to ask where are we in Donald Trump's grand strategy
(00:56):
for the US economy? What comes next? We've had a
kind of trade piece breakout between the US and China
just this weekend, which in turn has produced a kind
of recovery in the US stock market. Of course, there's
plenty of unanswered questions about this ninety day pause in
the very high tariffs that both countries had imposed on
each other, US and China, and we had that other
(01:18):
ninety day pause. Won't last that much longer on the
tariffs imposed on everyone else. But for now we're forgetting
about tariffs, or at least the world seems to be,
and it's onto the next big thing, which is tax cuts.
Hours after that US China truce was announced, House Republicans
in Congress released a multi trillion dollar draft tax bill
containing many of Donald Trump's campaign tax pledges, things like
(01:42):
no taxes on tips and overtime pay, and new tax
breaks for car buyers and seniors. Also, crucially, that bill
makes permanent the lower individual tax rates that were passed
in Trump's first term in twenty seventeen. Well, we recorded
this conversation on Tuesday morning, US time, just as people
(02:05):
in Washington were still getting to grips with a detail
of that big bill. But we had exactly the right
guests to help us put all of this in context.
Josh Wingrove, senior reporter for Bloomberg's White House team, who
can tell us something of the mood in Washington in
Congress and the West Wing. And Stephen Moore, economist and
the author most recently of the book The Trump Economic
(02:27):
Miracle and the Plan to Unleash Prosperity Again, among other things.
Stephen has advised Donald Trump's twenty sixteen presidential campaign, and
he's now serving as a Senior Fellow in economics at
the Heritage Foundation. Stephen, thank you very much for doing this.
(02:48):
I know it's a very busy week. So if you
just sort of stepped back on these first few months,
how do you think he's doing well.
Speaker 2 (02:55):
I like most of what Trump has done. I'm a
big fan of the tax cut. In fact, Lary Cudler
and I wrote the very first version of the Trump
tax cut back in twenty sixteen when he first started
running for president, and of course in the weeks and
maybe months ahead, we're going to try to finalize making
that tax cut permanent and making other changes. So I'm
a big fan of that. I like what he's doing
(03:15):
potentially saving a trillion dollars in deregulation costs. I like
the fact that he's promoting pro American energy policy that
uses oil or gas or coal or nuclear power, everything
we've got. So I'm very supportive of most things Trump
has done. As you know, i'm a kind of old
fashioned Milton Friedman, free trader. So I'm not a big
fan of tariffs. But if Trump can pull this off
(03:38):
and can get other countries to reduce their TIFFs, which
is his objective, that would be a very positive thing
for growth and for trade. But boy, it's been a
bumpy road.
Speaker 3 (03:48):
We will get onto some of the tax side of
things and maybe deregulation. But because you had raised publicly
some concerns about the economic impact of those tariffs, how
are you reading the last few weeks do you think
or the last few days do you think there has
been a real change of approach from the administration. You know,
we're having a deal with certainly the Chinese feel they
got everything that they wanted in that initial negotiation with
(04:10):
Scott Besson or is it too soon to say?
Speaker 2 (04:14):
Maybe a little too soon to say. But the last
couple of weeks have been enormously successful for Trump. We've had,
as you know, we've had a major, major comeback in
our stock market, so that's been good. A lot of
people lost a lot of money in March. In April,
it may has been a pretty good month. You know,
you never know what Trump, whether this was the grand design,
He's a very good negotiator. He's a very clever guy.
(04:36):
He's always underestimated by his political opposition. So I think that,
for example, when he said, well, we're going to put
one hundred and twenty five percent tarosun China, and then
when he said, well, maybe we'll go down in the
press at oh, there is is retreating, but that may
have been part of the plan all along, is to
start with a very high number and bring it down
as a negotiating tactic. I do believe that the UK
(04:59):
deal betwe in the US and the UK was a
great deal for both sides of the Atlantic. And I
think if this China thing can be consummated I don't
know where exactly it is in its negotiating phase, then
I think you're getting got a domino effect, and I
think you'll get a lot of other countries knocking on
the door and saying let's make a deal. And that's
exactly what Trump has always wanted to see.
Speaker 3 (05:21):
As you point out, the markets have certainly responded well
in the last week or so. The line is this
trade war was all the ninth series of Dallas. It
was all why it was all well, you know, Bobby
Ewing was the was in the shower, But as Josh
was reminding me as we were speaking earlier, I mean,
the effective tariff rate that we're left with even now,
at these kind of ceasefire levels, is very similar or
(05:42):
higher to the Smoot Hawley level. Even that UK trade
deal quote unquote leaves trade between the two countries kind
of in many ways less open than it was before
Donald Trump came to office. Our own economists think that
the tarifs in place now even and if they stay
at these lower levels, would mean over time a seventy
(06:03):
percent fall in Chinese exports to the US. Are we
underestimating how much damage could still be done by these tariffs?
Speaker 2 (06:11):
Boy, that's a good question. It's a tough question to answer,
because I do think there may be a little bit
of a rational exuberance here. The market so much wanted
to see a deal and end to this turbulence that
maybe they're reading too much. I don't know if they
are or not, but it's certainly a possibility. I do
think there's still going to be a lot of turbulence
(06:31):
in the months to come as we start to try
to hopefully finalize these things. But I also think that
the Trump administration was a little bit taken aback by
how negatively the international markets responded to the tariff wars,
and therefore they strategically tried to cut these deals as
a way to stop the turbulence. They're not stupid. They
(06:54):
realized that you had a falling dollar, hat a falling
stock market. You had a lot of factories in the
which were only running at fifty percent capacity because they
couldn't get the inputs and the raw materials they needed
to produce their products. Hopefully the worst of the turbulence
is over. I'm still hopeful that at the end of
the day, which would be in the next say, six months,
(07:16):
that we're going to see freer and fairer trade. In
other words, I do think that these other nations, the Europeans,
the Koreans, India, Japan, are going to have to lower
their terrifts, and Trump is kind of flexing our muscle
as a way to force these countries to do that.
Speaker 3 (07:34):
Josh, you and nodding when we're talking about irrational exuberance.
Speaker 1 (07:38):
I think Trump has shifted the conversation a lot here, right, So,
even when he's retreating back to levels that when he
said them campaign right were I popping to people, he
talked about ten percent global tariffs and maybe a sixty
percent tariff on China. In the campaign. He's sort of
generally in the ballpark of that. So I think I
would just say a couple points. Steve, I'm sure would
(07:59):
agree with the first one. Trump loves tariffs. Some people
are trying to parse the logic and strategy, and there
might be some, but the guy just likes them. He
talks about them both as a revenue tool. He talked
about them as an incentive to push things back, and
when business groups who've been very silent comparatively throughout the
(08:19):
process of this come to him and say, our factories
in the American heartland cannot get their inputs right now
because right right they just don't seem particularly a responsive,
at least publicly to those concerns. So he likes tariffs.
And the other thing that I would mention is like,
there's more to come still right now as we right
we've got these outstanding two three two investigations. We're expecting
(08:42):
those tariffs speak of like, you know, exuberance. When he
exempted so many consumer goods, particularly in China from that
China tariff, including you know, I.
Speaker 3 (08:51):
Feel like the electronics electronics, right.
Speaker 1 (08:54):
The stated reason for that is because he plans to
hit them with a different caraff which seems like it
will be twenty five percent, if only because that's what
every other sectoral tariff has been, which of course is
higher than the current ten percent pause level on China.
So it's it's a break. But he's planning on hitting
these industries with that semiconducted tariff, a lumber tariff, copper
tariff is still to come. These things are still coming
(09:16):
down the pipe here, and so I think that people
who are looking at this as the sort of level
set moment. Secretary Beson of course talked about ten percent
as a floor. He's also talked about those April second
numbers as a ceiling if people don't de escalate. But
there's other stuff to come in other streams, and the
overall effect of tariff it is probably going to go up,
(09:37):
not damp from where it is today.
Speaker 4 (09:40):
Well, I'm getting dizzy from all these numbers you're throwing
top of the different rafy. Oh he's a different thing.
And actually there's a serious point here though, and you're
quite right, Trump has a different view of tariffs than say,
a free trader like I do what he wants to do.
And I think there is something to this as an American,
which is that for the first one hundred years of
(10:00):
our country or more, we did not have an income tax,
you know, and we made a big mistake in nineteen
sixteen we adopted an income tax. I think that was
one of our greatest mistakes as a nation. And what
Trump is saying is, wouldn't it be better if our
tax system was through tarifsts, not taxes, income taxing? And
he's right, yes, that would be better.
Speaker 2 (10:18):
Income taxes have very negative effects on the economy, much
more so than terrorists do. And so what he wants
to do is he wants to reduce the taxes that
are imposed on things that are made in Michigan or
Maine or Montana and increase the taxes on things that
are made in China or Japan and Korea and other nations.
And as American, yeah, that seems to make a lot
(10:40):
of sense. Why would we punish our own producers. Why
not put a higher tax on the things that are
coming into the country. And Trump is also right, by
the way, that for the first one hundred and twenty
five years of our country. That's essentially how we tax.
Now that being said, one of the things I object
to about the Trump strategy is exactly kind of embedded
in your question. You mentioned ten different teriff rates, and
(11:03):
I don't like this idea of picking winners and losers.
If we're going to have a terrraff policy, let's just
have a fifteen percent across the board tariff import tariff.
Anytime something comes in the United States, you're going to
pay a tax on it. I don't like this idea
of saying, Okay, well we like this industry, we're going
to protect that protect that industry. And by the way,
if you get a meeting in the White House, we
could lower your terraff for you. I don't think that's
(11:24):
the way tax system should work.
Speaker 3 (11:26):
Steve, you just touched on it. And of course, the
suspicion is that one of the reasons that he not
only likes tariffs which are changeable by executive action and
not only by Congress, but specifically these very variable country
by country tariffs, even company by company in some cases
in effect, is the power that it gives Donald Trump
(11:48):
to be doing these favors for people and doing deals.
I mean, knowing him as you do, is that a
big part of what he likes about this strategy.
Speaker 2 (11:56):
I can really answer that, but I will say this
that I don't think it's a good way to make policy.
Let's say that Kamala Harris had won the election, and
let's say she said, Oh, you know, we have to
worry about climate change, so we're going to put all
these tariffs. I'm just going to unilaterly declare an emergency
and we're going to have tariffs on this. That the
other thing, Well, the Republicans would be going crazy. Oh,
she'd the dictator. She can't just impose this tax. Look,
(12:19):
our constitution very clear taxes start in the House of Representatives.
That's in our constitution. And so what Congress has done
is essentially delegated this so called emergency powers to the president.
And I don't think that's good for our system of government.
I think that these should be approved by Congress. It's
just a matter of accountability. I'd probably a minority of
my party on that, because Trump is a very powerful
(12:41):
president and the party does what he wants. But I'm
not so sure in the long run. So that's a
good way to make tax policies.
Speaker 1 (12:48):
You're not alone entirely in your party on that right,
including Chuck Grassley and other Republican senators have lent their
name to a bill reclaiming some of this tariff power.
Trump has really pushed the limits or tested them, shall
we say, like what a president can do unilaterally on tariffs?
By the way, I think there is a little kinton
his strategy here because he's using AEPA to do a
(13:09):
lot of these across the board country tariffs. Trade lawyers
say that that is flimsier than other ways, like the
two three two tariffs are the three oh one tariffs,
Those are more bulletproof, and those are the ones he's
using for the sectoral tariffs on steel cars, that kind
of thing.
Speaker 3 (13:24):
Stephen, I know you want to come in, but just
in case people didn't know, so that IPA, that's the
International Emergency Economic Powers Act, which lets the president impose
tariffs in times of economic emergency. So he's citing an
emergency relating to the trade deficit.
Speaker 2 (13:39):
Let me just say one thing in response to that
both of your questions, which is that to defend Trump
on this for a moment, and again I'm not a
big fan of the terror policy, but it is true.
I mean when Trump ran for president, he ran around
the country saying, tariff is my favorite word, and if
you will like me, I'm going to put these tariffs on.
And guess what middle class blue collar America kind of
(13:59):
like that idea. They are concerned about the factories leaving
and the jobs leaving. One of my concerns is, you know,
with the terror strategy, is are we chasing the jobs
of the twentieth century not the jobs of the twenty
first century, because let's face it, in ten years, there
won't be factory jobs. Everything will be done by robots.
So you know, I want to make sure that we
have an economy that's retro fitted for you know, the
(14:21):
twenty twenties and twenty thirties, not for the nineteen twenties
and nineteen thirties.
Speaker 3 (14:26):
Let's get onto the tax bill, because of course, journalists,
we're also kind of turning our eyes to the next
big thing. You know, US China trade will all over
at least for a couple of months. So now we're
focused on the tax bill that we saw come through
late on Monday this week, and it has a lot
of the things that Donald Trump campaigned, or not just
(14:46):
making those individual tax cuts that you mentioned, Steve permanent,
but some of the other measures, like eliminating some of
the taxes on tips and other things. Using some fairly
creative or at least non stand accounting, it supposedly adds
to the deficit three point seven trillion dollars over ten years.
(15:08):
I know you're a fan of doing many of those things,
but you're also a fan of smaller government and lower deficits.
So I just wonder how you're feeling about that big,
beautiful bill.
Speaker 2 (15:17):
Well, first of all, it's this just so your audience
understands failure is not an option here, because if this
does not get done by December thirty, First, you know,
we're facing the biggest tax increase in American history. Every
middle class family would pay more, every small business would
pay more taxes, a lot of our corporations would pay more.
So they have to get this done. And most of
(15:38):
the tax bill is really just extending what's already in law.
And so now you're right, there are other things that
Trump wants to add to that that no tax on tips,
which is actually from a fiscal point of view, pretty irrelevant.
You don't raise a lot might be taxing tips anyway,
but you know, not taxes not.
Speaker 3 (15:56):
Now you may find you use a lot of money
when everyone decides their entire commentaries.
Speaker 2 (16:00):
Everywho's going to be a tip to boy because taxes
do affect people's behavior. But one of the ones that
I think is most important is the fifteen percent tax
rate for businesses. You know, he wants to cut our
corporate tax rate to fifteen percent, which I think would
be enormously beneficial from a strategic point of view. So
I'm a big fan of this bill. I don't believe
(16:21):
the numbers that you cited. I mean, I know those
are the right numbers, but I don't believe that it's
going to cost money. And I know that because the
same people forecast is going to lose three trillion or
whatever the number is. These are the same people who
said when we passed the tax bill in twenty seventeen,
you know, that could cost several trillion dollars, and we
now know just from a look back that they were
wrong by about one point five trillion. Because our tax
(16:43):
estimators always overestimate the revenue losses from cutting tax rates,
and they always overestimate the revenues that are going to
gain by raising taxes because they use a kind of
static analysis that doesn't take into account. You know, when
you cut taxes, good things for happen for the enemy.
Speaker 3 (17:00):
Josh, I know you were. You were also looking at
some of the details of this bill, and also, I
guess as a sign of a kind of relative influence
of the president over his party.
Speaker 1 (17:11):
Well, the fact that it's one big, beautiful bill is
itself a sign of the influence of the party because they,
you know, going back a couple of months, Republicans were
divided on that, namely, the House and the Senate were
divided on that. So Jason Smith, the ways means Chairman,
has come out with this bill that does maintain several
of Trump's priorities, including on taxation of tips, social Security one,
on auto loan interest deductibility, which is a one that
(17:34):
Trump loves, which allows you to write off the interest
payments on your car if you buy an American made car.
So that's in there. What isn't in there, interestingly, is
the very thing Steve mentioned that Trump has been calling
for the fifteen percent corporate tax rate on American manufacturers
down from the current twenty one percent. Trump had talked
about that. He'd also talked about lowering the twenty one
(17:57):
to twenty regardless of whether you manufacturing in the US. Instead,
they're doing a one hundred percent depreciation, which is essentially
a big carrot on a stick to build new factories
in America. The manufacturers group seem jazzed about that. You know,
they'll take it. They don't seem too concerned about the
lack of the corporate tax rate. But they are having
to pick and choose. And remember, as we sit here,
(18:18):
the US budget devicit is hovering it a shade under
two trillion annually, something like twenty one trillion over the
ten year budget window. And when we talk about three
point seven trillion, that's over that ten years for the
people that might be listening to us outside of the US,
And so you know, we're talking about a quite wide
budget gap over the coming decade. Now. Trump wants to
narrow that through the deregulation that Steve mentioned. He wants
(18:40):
to narrow that of course with tariff revenue. But you
still got a significant, significant budget shortfall, and of course
that's why Secretary Besson is watching that ten year to
try to see how markets are going to be digesting all.
Speaker 3 (18:52):
Of US, which has not come down.
Speaker 1 (18:53):
It has come down a bit if you've measured back
to January twentieth, when Trump took office, but it has
been rising pretty steadily here for a while. There are
concerns clearly in the bond market about the US direction
right now.
Speaker 3 (19:04):
Steve, you mentioned that the numbers will turn out to
be better than expected, but if you look at really,
on any assumptions, the US debt relative to GDP is
looking pretty unsustainable. I mean, the line keeps going up
no matter what you make. You know, almost any assumption
you would make, not least because of the higher cost
(19:24):
of money that we have now, even if it doesn't
go up so much from here.
Speaker 2 (19:28):
Well, there's no doubt about it that our national debt
is a clear and present danger, no question about it.
And you're also right that you know we're vulnerable to
an interest rate shot. As the world's biggest borrower, every
time interest rates go up, our borrowing expenses go up.
But I'm a growth hoart. What I care most about,
that's the overriding factor that drives all these numbers is jobs.
(19:49):
Economic growth and prosperity. And so what I've told the President,
I've told the speak of the House in Republicans, anything
that makes the economy grow faster, do you do it?
Speaker 3 (20:01):
Do it?
Speaker 1 (20:02):
Do it.
Speaker 2 (20:02):
Anything that makes the economy grow slower is going to
make our debt situation worse. So I want Republicans to
be focused on one thing, getting the keeping our economic
growth rate, which has been hovering at about one point
five one point six percent, get it back to the
three to three and a half percent growth rate, which
is our America's you know, normal growth rate. And if
you do that, if you get that economic growth rate
(20:25):
and that productivity up, then guess what that debt that
you're talking about is a share of our economy. It
doesn't go up from you know, currently one hundred percent
of GDP to two hundred percent of GDP, it actually
starts to fall. So growth is everything. We have a
president who's hyper focused on growing the economy, bringing jobs
back home, making our economy as efficient as possible through
(20:46):
things like deregulation. We're going to produce a lot more oil, gas,
and coal, so we can be the number one producer
of energy in the world, and all of those things
I think are good for growth, good for jobs, and
we'll make our deficit situation less hazardous in the future.
Speaker 3 (21:02):
Okay, but if you think of just the balance of
policies and where the emphasis has been in the last
few months, do you feel like there has been enough
focus on growth? A lot of the growth rate that
you talked about just now came from immigration, came from
the tax cuts that we're just making permanent. As you
pointed out, there's no change of policy, so it's just
keeping things as they are, which doesn't necessarily give you
(21:23):
an extra burst. And also from some of the trade
that has happened back and forth between Mexico and Canada
and other things, some of these industries that are now
going to be disrupted by the tariff. So if you
think about deregulation, you know, has there been enough focus
on that?
Speaker 2 (21:37):
As I said earlier, I really do believe if we
can get these trade deals done, if we can get
the tax cut down, those two things, if that happen
in the next three to six months, and you heard
it first here on your show on Bloomberg, We're going
to see the biggest boom you ever saw. You're going
to see the stock marker go through the roof, you're
going to see the United States a sucking capital in
(21:57):
from the rest of the world has happened like in
the Reagan era. So I'm bullish. I'm bullish out America
right now now that those are the two big ifs though.
If we can get the trade deals done and if
we can get the tax cut done, those are the
two highest priorities for Trump. And I wouldn't better gun Stem.
Speaker 3 (22:16):
You have always been someone who was focused on the
business agenda and the agenda for growth, and you just
talked about it here. The judgments that investors have made,
even as the S and P has gone back up
in the last few weeks, is the dollar is still
weaker and the other markets are actually doing better because
they think fundamentally the US is going to go backwards
with these policies that are trying to take them out
(22:37):
of a globally integrated economy. Do you not worry that
when the dust settles, you might be okay, but you're
still going to be a step back from where you
would have been because of this effort to pull you
out of an integrated global economy.
Speaker 2 (22:50):
I do worry about that. And I think actually one
of the things that's that some of my friends in
the Trump administration not fully appreciate is one of the
things that's made the American account on me so strong
over the last forty years since you know, the running
of the Reagan era, is that we are are incredibly
globally integrated. And you know that, I think a lot
of people don't appreciate. You know why it is that
(23:12):
the factories here are being harmed by the terrorists because
actually this was supposed to bring jobs back to the
United States, and in fact instead that factories have had
to layoff workers because we you know, as I talked
one manufacturer said, look, I get we get our seal
from Japan, we get our we get our copper from Vietnam,
we get our parts from Mexico. We got our lumber
(23:34):
from Canada. So we are incredibly globally integrated. It makes
our economy very efficient, and we don't want to lose
that edge. And that's why we've got to get these
trade deals done in a way that benefits America but
also benefits global growth. And I can't guarantee it, but
I think over the next three to six monitor to
see a lot of improvement in the trade turmoil that
(23:56):
right now is dominating the markets.
Speaker 3 (23:58):
Steven, we will remember that in a few months time.
Thank you very much for joining us.
Speaker 2 (24:03):
And when I'm right, I watch you to help me
back on it.
Speaker 3 (24:07):
We will any time. Josh, having interviewed him a million
years ago, he's always very enthusiastic and bullish, which makes
for a good interview. But when you're talking to people
in and around the White House and on the Hill,
are people feeling that bullish now that you've got some
of these trade deals under way.
Speaker 1 (24:25):
I think Republicans have exhaled a little bit, but the
bullish thing is I think a step too far yet,
because the deals that we've seen have been pretty modest.
Some cans have been kicked down the road, and of
course big deals hang in the air. Steve talked about
Japan and South Korea. Those are really two big tests
(24:45):
because the UK deal had way few thornier issues than
those ones will. And you know, it's difficult to see
how a fundamental deal comes together if Trump wants to,
for instance, keep it twenty five percent auto tariff on
two crucial sectors for those two economies. And so I
think right now, the Republican complaints about this have quieted.
(25:09):
The sort of subtle momentum towards a bill to recapture
some of the tariff power in Congress has abated, and
the focus is on getting this tax bill passed. Bessen
talks about it the Treasury Secretary about three legs of
the stool, right, not only tariffs, but the tax cuts
and the deregulation. They're really racing to get these tax
(25:29):
cuts done by July fourth, by the way, right, so
we had Liberation Day on April second, we're going to
celebrate Independan's Day allegedly by signing a big tax cut package. Here,
they're sort of just biting their tongue and holding their
breath in a lot of cases that this is all
going to work out. But clearly there's unease, and I
should not leave any suggestion that I'm saying that some
(25:50):
revolt is coming. President Trump continues to have very strong
support in his party. People are not speaking out emphatically
against him. You get sort of comments about tariffs here
and there, but right now he's sort of full steam ahead.
Speaker 3 (26:05):
Well, I guess we will see. I will certainly be
checking in with you and maybe we should check in
with Stephen Moore in a few months time see if
his bullish predictions have turned out. But Josh Wingo, thanks
very much, Thank you for having me, Thanks for listening
to Trump andomics from Bloomberg. It was hosted by me,
Stephanie Flanders, and I was joined by Bloomberg's Josh Wingrove
(26:27):
and the Heritage Foundation Stephen Moore. Trump and Noomics is
produced by Summer Sadi and Moses and Am with help
from Chris martinlu Tala Amadi and Amy Keen. Sound design
is by Robert Williams and special thanks to Jared Rudderman.
Brendan Francis Newnan is our executive producer. To help others
(26:47):
find the show, please rate and review it highly wherever
you find your podcasts.
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