Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
From Schwartz Media. I'm Daniel James. This is seven AM.
A week ago, most pundits were betting on a hung parliament. Instead,
Labour has claimed one of the biggest majorities in modern history,
eclipsing even Bob Hawke's first term result. Anthony Albinezi now
commands near unquestioned authority inside his party, but a celebrations settle,
(00:25):
questions are already beginning to emerge about how his government
will handle this mandate and the risk of hubris that
comes with it. Today columnists for the Saturday Paper Paul
bon Jorno on the ins and outs of Labour's historic
win and how quickly triumph can turn to trouble. It's Friday,
(00:46):
May nine, Paul, what a difference a week makes. Last
week we're taking predictions and most bets were on a
hung parliament. So do you think the enormity of the
win has started the sinking? Yet? For Labor people that
you've been speaking.
Speaker 2 (01:05):
With, well, it is quite extraordinary. For one thing, Anthony
Alberanizi has returned the best election result of a Labor
leader since the war, better than Labor hero's wartime heroes
Curtain and Chiffley and even better than Bob Hawk, so
it's historic from that point of view. Labor was always
(01:26):
considered to be on track to win either in minority
or majority. Although I was talking to Wayne Swan, president
of the Labor Party, here and he did confirm to
me that Labour's polling had them on track for majority
government basically from the beginning of the campaign. But he
had to admit they knew there was a swing, but
(01:48):
they didn't think it'd be that big. In other words,
maybe eighty seats, but what are we heading for now.
The prediction is they'll get to ninety maybe ninety two,
and that's the sort of landslide you saw from are
John Howard or Tony Abbott in twenty thirteen, and the
enormity there thrills them, but it certainly took them by surprise.
Speaker 1 (02:08):
Given the size of the win. We've heard a lot
about the mandate Albanizi now has. So what is he
said this week about his first priorities in the second term.
Speaker 3 (02:17):
It is great to have the honor of being back
in the Prime Minister's courtyard and I do want to
thank the Australian people for the very clear mandate that
they've given my government.
Speaker 2 (02:27):
Well is he's done a couple of things actually right
from the word go on Saturday night and through a
big news conference he did in the Prime Minister's courtyard
on Monday. The first thing he does is he's humble, right.
Speaker 3 (02:40):
I promised to be a prime minister for all Australians,
those who voted Labor those who didn't, and hope to
earn the trust of the Australian people on an ongoing basis.
We are deeply humble by the result on Saturday and
we don't take a second of it for granted.
Speaker 2 (03:00):
I'm not getting carried away. It's steady as you go.
The way the Labor government acted in the first term
is the way it's going to act in this term.
Speaker 4 (03:08):
Look, we're not getting ahead of ourselves. I didn't get
ahead of myself in the last three years. We had
a clear mandate to government. We had a lot to
turn around.
Speaker 2 (03:21):
He will endeavor to fulfill the mandate that he got
from the people, and he's said that there'll be no
shocks or surprises. Now my reading of that is on taxation,
for example, everyone believes that there's some more should be
done on taxation, especially the multi billion dollar concessions on
negative gearing and capital gains tax. Unless there is built
(03:44):
up an enormous political pressure for the government to do that,
you won't see it do it.
Speaker 1 (03:48):
And of course everyone loves a winner, Paul, especially one
Donald Trump. He said this week that Albanezy is very
good and that the two are friendly. I don't know
Albanise I'm very friendly with I haven't hadn't know about
the election, other than he's very good, You're a.
Speaker 5 (04:03):
Friend of mine.
Speaker 1 (04:04):
On the other hand, he said that he has no
idea who the person is who ran against him, which
must have been a bit brutiful. Peter Dutton, But what
is the task for Albanzi now when it comes to
managing our relationship with the United States.
Speaker 2 (04:16):
Well, I've been fascinated to see how Alberzi has already
begun to manage this even before the election. You might
remember they played a word game with Albanizi and Dutton.
I think it was on Channel seven. Mark Riley put
to him when I say, Donald Trump, what do you think?
And Albanezi immediately said President. So in other words, Alberanizi
(04:37):
wants to keep this on a business footing.
Speaker 6 (04:39):
I mean, so, were there any promises from Donald Trump
in your discussion this morning, especially when it comes to tariffs.
Speaker 3 (04:45):
Well, it was a very warm discussion about the friendship
between our two nations. That's so important. I've had three
conversations with the President. I won't go into all of
the personal comments that he made, but it was very generous.
Speaker 2 (05:02):
He understands that he's the Prime Minister of Australia dealing
with our principal strategic partner, and he it has to
manage this partner in such a way that any damage
to the relationship comes not from the Australian side, but
from the American side. And I think in this there's
a big difference between US and Canada. What Trump's doing
(05:24):
with Canada is directly damaging to Canada, while what he's
done to us, in a sense, he's already given us
a concession by hitting us only with ten percent tariffs
and not higher ones. Although Albanizi, and this is interesting
to note as well, his response to that was not
to say, oh good, he good, he didn't hit as harder,
but to point out that that was not the act
(05:44):
of a friend. Alberanizi really is a bit of a
rough diamond. In many, many ways, but it is clear
from his history and politics and people who do deal
with him whether they're independence. Indeed, Adam Bant the Green
said this during the campaign, alb an extremely good negotiator.
So that's the approach I think that we're going to
(06:05):
see going forward from him in regard to the American
Alliance and our relationship with the mercurial Donald Trump.
Speaker 1 (06:14):
As he said Paul albin Az, he wants to stay
humble and not get ahead of himself. But given the
scale of Labour's majority, is there a risk that he
actually could start getting ahead of himself.
Speaker 2 (06:26):
Yeah. Well, look, there's absolutely no doubt that all of
the doubts that were fueled by the very bad campaign
he ran in twenty twenty two that sapped him of
authority within the Labor caucus the Labor Party. But now
that he's had this massive win backing his own assessment
of how Labor could win, his authority within the broader
(06:48):
Labor Party has been mightily enhanced. Are you worried about Hubris?
Speaker 3 (06:54):
Oh, what I'm concerned about is making sure that we
seize the opportunity that we have to take this country forward.
We have an opportunity to renew faith in our democracy.
Speaker 2 (07:07):
I think it suffered now while we're hearing all the
right things from Anthony Albanisi, how he's not going to
get ahead of himself, how he's humble and he's here
to serve. As when senior Cabinet minister said to me,
politicians can start to believe their own mythologies.
Speaker 1 (07:26):
After the break the election surprise winners and losers.
Speaker 6 (07:41):
A short time ago, I called the Labor candidate for Melbourne,
Sarah Whitty, to concede, to congratulate her and to wish
her all the best as the next member for Melbourne, Paul.
Speaker 1 (07:52):
We heard this week that Green's leader Adam Bandt has
lost his seat, the seat of Melbourne, which he held
for fourteen years. What do you make of that result
and what impact will it have?
Speaker 2 (08:02):
Well, it's interesting in one sense. The result for the
Greens in the Lower House has been a disaster. Bans
primary vote fell four percent in his seat and Labour's
primary vote came up six But what we've also should note,
not only in Victoria but up in Queensland as well,
the Liberals preference to Labor not the Greens.
Speaker 6 (08:21):
We needed to overcome Liberal Labor and one nation combined.
And it's an everest that we've climbed a few times now,
but this time we fell just short.
Speaker 2 (08:31):
The other point is it really puts the Greens back
to what you might call to keep the Bastard's Honors party,
the balance of power party in the Senate, and the
Greens come back to the Senate with all their senators
in place and with the balance of power in their
own right. In other words, if Labour wants to get
legislation through, it can do it either by negotiating directly
(08:53):
with the coalition, but if the coalitions playing hard to
get then the eleven Greens can deliver the votes.
Speaker 1 (08:59):
And there of course are a number of other seats
that are on a nice age. This week the Liberals
have clawed back some ground and some key contests with
the Teals. So how significant has that been.
Speaker 2 (09:09):
Well, you'd have to say it's pretty significant, certainly from
the Liberals point of view, that they were given a
slither of light in the Teal held seat of Goldstein
in Melbourne.
Speaker 5 (09:19):
I'm very proud, deep Bread, deep Bread, genuinely very proud
to say that we are pleased to accept that we
have one the seat Goldstein.
Speaker 2 (09:31):
Pack Zoey Daniel Atteel Independent, they're defeated by the former
Liberal incumbent Tim Wilson. Now that's important for a few reasons,
especially for the Liberals. First of all, it gives them
something to be happy about. But Tim Wilson is quite
a political operator. I noticed that Jeff Kenned in an
(09:51):
interview in Melbourne on Thursday, described Wilson as an attack
dog back in the twenty nineteen election. He was the
one who he effectively ran the campaign against Bill Shorten
on franking credits. He'll come back into the Parliament, he
won't be in government anymore, so he won't have all
those levers to pull, but I wouldn't be surprised if
(10:13):
maybe they even make him deputy leader. We'll just have
to wait and see on that. But look more broadly,
what we've seen in the Strand Capital territory. The safe
seat with a fourteen percent margin of Bean is still
teetering to a Teal Independent. But it also happened over
in Perth in the traditionally safe labor seat of Fremantle.
(10:35):
Now it looks like Labor will hang on there, but
rather than having a you know, a twenty percent or
sixteen percent margin. It's down to one or under one percent.
Then we go to New South Wales. We see that
three of the Teal independents hung on and we see
that in the seat of Bradfield it looks like the
Liberals might just scrape over the line. Interestingly, in that seat,
(10:57):
the former incumbent, a white, middle aged man. He quit
the seat and the Liberals endorsed a woman and she
ran the sort of campaign in Bradfield that the Teals run.
So neither of the major parties can rest on their laurels.
They all now have to treat every seat as one
that they may well lose if they don't perform.
Speaker 1 (11:19):
So the Independence and the Teals are here to stay.
What role will they play in this parliament though, given
Labour's massive majority.
Speaker 2 (11:27):
Well in the House of Representatives, not a key role.
I mean Labor will be able to get everything at
once through the House of Representatives. However, what we did
see in the first term, of course Labor had a majority,
but it was only a single seat majority. After they
appointed the Speaker, Albanzi went out of his way to
interact with the Teals, even engineered often that the teals
(11:51):
would be allowed to or encourage to amend government legislation.
So I think what we're going to see is more
of that from the Albanzi government in the lower house,
bit of insurance in that. But also I think Albanezi
is very keen to show that he runs an inclusive
government and this will be key of course to him
(12:11):
not getting too big for his boots, as we were
talking about a bit earlier.
Speaker 1 (12:16):
And finally, Paul Labour now commands a huge majority, but
history shows us how quickly big majorities can sour. Is
there a danger that could happen?
Speaker 2 (12:25):
Absolutely, there is a danger for it. You might remember
that Tony Abbott in twenty thirteen, he had ninety seats
in the House of Representatives, had a massive landslide, but
his own party room got rid of him within a
year after he and Joe Hockey's treasurer brought in a
budget that broke every promise they made and was brutal austerity.
Speaker 7 (12:48):
Do you need to apologize to the public and say, yeah,
I'll let you down, I did lie to you, I
did break a lot of promises, but hey, I'm going
to rebuild from him. Well, Koshi, obviously we are determined
to improve on these things. But no one said the
task of budget repair was going to be easy.
Speaker 2 (13:11):
There's even history going back to Paul Keating who won
the sweetest victory of all. Keating had close to a
one hundred ninety a seat majority then, but he was
wiped out by John Howard three years later. There is
one difference in my view here, however, the elections that
saw Labor defeated by Howard and then Tony Abbott were
(13:34):
at the end of a very tired old Labor government
that had pulled itself apart over egos, not over policy,
not over direction, not over identity. So once Labour sorted
out the egos this time, we really do have the
Liberal Party looking like it's in its death throws unless
it really does come to terms with who it is,
(13:57):
what it wants to be, and whether it wants to
look to Sir but Menzies order, Peter Kredlin and Sky after.
Speaker 1 (14:02):
Dark, Paul, thank you so much for your time.
Speaker 2 (14:08):
Thank you, Daniel Bye.
Speaker 1 (14:22):
Also in the news, MPs have arrived in Canberra ahead
of Labour's first caucus meeting in Parliament House later today,
where the Prime Minister is expected to finalize his next ministry, Albaneze.
He says he expects the new ministry to be sworn
in at Government House on Tuesday next week. And Peter
Dutton has made his first public appearance since losing his
seat in Parliament, returning the Canberra to briefly thank his supporters.
(14:45):
When asked to comment on he should replace him, the
former Opposition leader said he would maintain a dignified silence.
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(15:06):
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