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June 5, 2025 15 mins

Donald Trump’s return to power is testing Australia’s decades-old reflex to stand with the United States.

When the US defence secretary, Pete Hegseth, demanded Canberra nearly double its military spend, Anthony Albanese answered that Australia will decide its own defence policy – and has been vocal in his criticisms of Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminium.

With public support for automatic alignment with the US fading, the prime minister is recalibrating the alliance in real time.

Today, columnist for The Saturday Paper, Paul Bongiorno, on how Australia is no longer “all the way” with the USA.

 

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Guest: Columnist for The Saturday Paper, Paul Bongiorno.

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Episode Transcript

Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
From Swartz Media. I'm Daniel James. This is seven AM.
For decades, Australian governments have followed a bipartisan rule stick
close to the United States, but this week Prime Minister
Anthony Alberzi appeared to break from that tradition, rejecting pressure

(00:22):
from Washington, standing firm on defense spending in light of
a demand to newly double it, and was vocal in
his criticisms of Trump's tariffs from steel and aluminum. It's
a shift that signals a different approach to Australia's national security,
one that distances itself from America is unpredictable foreign policy
and increasingly fragile alliances. Today. Columnists for the Saturday Paper

(00:45):
poor Born Joorno on why Alberanze is stepping back from
the US are what it means for Australia's place in
the world. It's Friday six.

Speaker 2 (01:06):
Well, it is great to be here.

Speaker 3 (01:08):
We've definitely Prime Minister at Tinsley Man.

Speaker 1 (01:11):
We're in tucks regularly.

Speaker 3 (01:13):
Just a longstanding, incredibly important partnership with our friends in Australia.

Speaker 1 (01:19):
Paul over the work in Australia's Defense Minister Richard Miles
met with his US counterpart, Pete Hegsith, What do we
know about that meeting?

Speaker 4 (01:27):
Well, we know it was in the context of the
Shangrila Dialogue, which is a very high powered meeting of
government officials and military types held annually in Singapore.

Speaker 3 (01:38):
Under President Trump's leadership, the United States is committed to
achieving peace through strength.

Speaker 4 (01:43):
Hegsith gave a speech on the Saturday, but on the
Friday night he did meet with Richard Miles and put
it on Miles that Australia should increase its defense spending
as soon as possible to three point five percent of
our gross domestic product.

Speaker 3 (02:00):
I urge all of our allies and partners to seize
this moment with us. Our defense spending must reflect the
dangers and threats that we face today, because the terrence
doesn't come on the cheap, just to ask the American taxpayer.

Speaker 4 (02:17):
Miles and his press conference said that he was completely
comfortable with the sentiment that the American expressed in terms
of not only Australia, but everyone else in Asia and
in fact everyone else in the world, should increase the
defense spending. He didn't quibble in the broad with the
view of higgsth that China is becoming more and more

(02:41):
of a military threat and people better get ready for it.

Speaker 2 (02:45):
What we have seen from China is the single biggest
increase in military capability and build up in a conventional
sense by any country since the end of the Second
World War.

Speaker 4 (03:01):
Miles, in his doorstop, which made headlines back home in Australia,
said that he was totally up for the conversation of
moving to a greater spend for defense.

Speaker 2 (03:12):
Reality is that there is no effective balance of power
in this region absence the United States. But we cannot
leave it to the United States alone.

Speaker 5 (03:23):
Now.

Speaker 4 (03:24):
The problem with three point five percent of gross domestic
product is by several estimates, that would increase our defense
spending to wait for it, one hundred billion dollars annually.
At the moment, Australia has committed to increase its spending
to two percent of gross domestic product, which is, you know,

(03:46):
back around eighty billion, which is not to be sneezed at.

Speaker 2 (03:49):
Through the largest peace time increase in defense spending since
the end of the Second World War, Australia is investing
in a generational transformation of the ADF to ensure we
are not only in a position to deter force projection
against US, but also, and perhaps even more importantly, to
contribute to an effective regional balance where no state concludes

(04:13):
that force is a viable way to achieve strategic goals.

Speaker 4 (04:18):
There was a feeling back in Canberra that Miles should
have answered in the way in which Anthony Albanzi did
by pointing out to the American that we have already
significantly upped our spending by ten billion dollars over the
next four years and in fact going further out thanks
to UCAS. We're talking about three hundred billion, a lot

(04:41):
of that which goes to the Americans. So there's no
doubt that Albanizi felt that there needed to be a
bit of pushback.

Speaker 5 (04:48):
What you should do in defense has decide what you need,
your capability and then provide for it.

Speaker 1 (04:56):
That's what my.

Speaker 5 (04:57):
Government's doing, investing in our capability and investing in our relationships.

Speaker 1 (05:03):
Yeah, so the Prime Minister was much stronger in his
response to Peter Hexas suggestion. Does that suggest that there's
perhaps a riff between the Defense Minister and the Prime
Minister on this particular issue.

Speaker 4 (05:18):
Well, the Prime Minister's office claims there isn't. There's a
hell of a lot of difference between being up for
the conversation and actually agreeing to a preordained gargantuan amount
of money. But I think also what the Albanese government
is very keen to do, especially in the aftermath of
the election, is not to be seen in any way,

(05:41):
shape or form to be cow tewing to Trump and
the Trump administration, because there is no doubt that in
the election campaign an overwhelming majority of Australians didn't like
the Trump disruption and perceived that Peter Dunton was in
fact too close to Trump and that many of his

(06:03):
policies were shaped on Trump. So Albanezi is very determined
not to create any sort of impression that post election
is now as it were, going to toady to the Americans.
In fact, in a very strong statement the next day,
the Prime Minister pointed out, look, America doesn't determine our

(06:25):
defense policy or spending or strategy. We do that.

Speaker 5 (06:28):
We determine our defense policy. Here where a sovereign nation
that need to have pride in our sovereignty and in
our capacity to make decisions in our national interest.

Speaker 1 (06:43):
Paul Australia in the US, for bitter or worse, have
been joined at the hip for a long time. Now,
do you get a sense that that might be changing
or is it mostly about perceptions about being too close
to Donald Trump in particular.

Speaker 4 (06:57):
Yeah, look, there's no doubt things are changing. And I
think before going to the particulars of what you've just
asked me, Hugh White, the Strategic Expert, an emeritus professor
from the Australan National University. In his latest quarterly essay
he talks about our post American future and it's an
amazing analysis that does point out that what we're seeing

(07:19):
now is the strengthening of China as a world power
economically and even strategically, and the weakening of the United States.
But the weakening of the United States, which is purposeful
in terms of Trump no longer seeing the United States
is the garran tor of democratic freedoms around the world.

(07:41):
They're calling it the new American isolationism. So this is
the new reality we have to come to terms with,
and it is diametrically opposed to the worldview between Australia
and America since World War II, which led to the
establishment of the ANAS Treaty, a treaty between America Australia
and New Zealand. That presumes that if we're attacked by anybody,

(08:03):
America will come to our aid as the protector of
our freedoms. But that is no longer the reality. And
it's not only a reality that's changed thanks to Donald Trump,
but it's one that's been changing over the last thirty years.
In my view, the Australian public has never quite been

(08:24):
completely as enthusiastic for being all the way with the USA, or,
as one of our former Prime ministers, Harold Holt famously
said on the lawns of the White House, all the
way with LBJ Lynden Bands Johnson. And this was at
the height of the Vietnam War. Even though Harold Holt
did win a landslide election in nineteen sixty six, support

(08:47):
for the Vietnam War was already waning, and within two
elections the Liberals lost basically because of our commitment to Vietnam.

Speaker 1 (08:58):
Australia and the world have witnessed some of the biggest
anti war protests ever seen.

Speaker 4 (09:04):
And you might also remember that when John Howard wanted
to send everybody off to war joining George W. Bush
in the invasion of Iraq, there were massive protests in
Sydney and Melbourne, and public opinion was against that commitment. Certainly,
Now what we're seeing, I think is that the politicians,
certainly with Anthony Albanese and Labor, are more in tune

(09:27):
with overwhelming public opinion. So trying to make just how
close we are to America the touchstone of legitimacy for
the government no longer holds any water.

Speaker 1 (09:41):
After the break, What will happen when Trump and Albanzi
meet face to face? Paul? In a couple of weeks,
Albanese will fly to Canada for the G seventh summer,
making it his first opportunity to meet with Donald Trump

(10:03):
face to face. How do you think that meeting is
likely to go.

Speaker 4 (10:08):
First of all, we're the guests of the Canadian Prime Minister.
We're not members of the G seven, so we're there
as official guests and observers. And Albanesi is already telegraphing
that he will politely but firmly tell the American President
that his doubling of tariffs on our steel and uranium
exports is not the act of a friend, and in fact,

(10:31):
it is self harm for the United States because all
it does is up the cost of everything for the
Americans themselves. Now, nobody thinks that even if Albanizi does
this in the politest of ways, that Donald Trump will
thank him for it. And the talk in Gamber now
is that Albanezy won't be going down to Washington have

(10:51):
Tate in the Oval Office. Probably just as well, because
if he gets the tone wrong, well, he might get
the same treatment that Zelene got when he was in
the Oval Office with Trump.

Speaker 1 (11:03):
The UK was able to secure an exemption from Trump's
fifty percent tariffs and steel an aluminium. How likely is
it that Australia could do the same.

Speaker 4 (11:12):
Well, that's a very good question and it'll depend, as
we've been saying, on how Albanezi navigates his way around
the good ship Trump. One of the things that's gotten
in the way of us being able to negotiate exemptions
is that our federal election got in the way, so
that distracted our government from being able to do as

(11:34):
much handiwork, and you go to Washington and all of
that as Kei, as Starmer and the Brits were able
to do with Trump. So in a sense there's a
bit of catch up to be played here. But Trump
Mark two has learned a lot from Trump Mark I.
And when we got exemptions, when Prime Minister Malcolm Turnmilled

(11:55):
won exemptions on Tariff's back, then we were one of
thirty other countries that got them. This time, Trump's advisors
and Trump himself are of a view nobody gets exemptions
because it sort of defeats the purpose of what we're
on about.

Speaker 1 (12:09):
Do you get the sense that Albanesi and his government
might be looking to forge stronger tie elsewhere beyond the
US as a result of all this uncertainty.

Speaker 4 (12:17):
Yeah, there's absolutely no doubt about that. As we speak,
our Trade Minister Don Farrell is in Europe trying to
resurrect the Europe Australia Free Trade Deal. Also, it's to
be noted that at the Shangrila Dialogue this year the
keynote speaker was none other than the French President Emanuel Macron.

Speaker 6 (12:38):
The time for non alignment has undoubtedly pasts, but the
time for coalitions of action as com and require that
country is capable of acting together gives themselves every means
to do so. We mass show consistency where all thos
practice aable game.

Speaker 4 (12:55):
Albanezi makes a big deal of letting people know that
he and Macron are the same page on many things.
And I think it's worth noting that Macron's speech pointed
out that the intensifying rivalry between the United States and China, well,
Macron's view is that this is the greatest threat to
global security. And he said Trump's idea of you know

(13:19):
you're either with us or against this, well, it's dangerous.

Speaker 6 (13:23):
I will just conclude now with a plea, a call
for action for Europe and Asia to work together on
a coalition of independence, a coalition of contries that won't
be enrolled but won't be believed. A coalition of contries
that objects to the double standard. A coalition of contries
that will pull their strengths to write the rest of technology,

(13:46):
appold norms and protect the sovereigns.

Speaker 1 (13:51):
Paul, always great to speak with you.

Speaker 4 (13:53):
Thank you very much. Daniel buy.

Speaker 1 (14:09):
Also in the news today, senior Liberal leaders have rejected
comments from Alan Stockdale, the former Victorian treasurer appointed the
manager it's new South Wales division, who claimed women in
the party are sufficiently assertive and suggested quote as may
now be needed to protect men. Senior figures, including federal
leader Susan Lee and New South Wales liberal leader Mark

(14:30):
Speakman have condemned the remarks as add a step and
damaging to efforts to rebuild support among women. And Donald
Trump has announced a new travel ban affecting citizens from
twelve countries, mostly in Africa and the Middle East. The
ban revised elements of his first term immigration policy, which
was widely criticized as a Muslim ban. The latest travel

(14:51):
ban came on the back of an anti Semitic fire
bombing attack in Bolder, Colorado, in which an Egyptian man
who was in the US unlawfully alleg injured fifteen people.
While Egypt wasn't included in the list of band countries,
Trump cited the attack as a justification for the sweeping restrictions.
Seven Am was a daily show from Schwartz Media on

(15:12):
the Saturday Paper. It's made by Atticus Bastow, Shane Anderson,
Chris Stengate, Eric Jensen, Ruby Jones, Sarah McPhee, Travis Evans,
Zoltenfetcho and Met Daniel James. Our theme music is by
Ned Beckley and Josh Hogan of Envelope Bordeo. That's all
from seven Am for this week we'll be back on Monday.

(15:34):
Have a great weekend.
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