April 29, 2025 • 15 mins
Under Peter Dutton’s leadership, the Coalition has placed One Nation candidates second on scores of how-to-vote cards across the country.
In return, Pauline Hanson has switched One Nation's how-to-vote cards to preference the Liberals second in seats where the Coalition is under threat.
The decision goes against decades of principled condemnation of Hanson and One Nation inside the Liberal Party, and normalises what has for almost 30 years been a shunned fringe voice in Australian politics.
It signals a change not just in campaign tactics, but in what the Liberals stand for.
Today, national correspondent for The Saturday Paper Mike Seccombe, on the preference deal between One Nation and the Liberal Party and whether it could backfire.
If you enjoy 7am, the best way you can support us is by making a contribution at 7ampodcast.com.au/support.
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Guest: National correspondent for The Saturday Paper, Mike Seccombe.
Photo: AAP Image / Brian Casey
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
From Schwartz Media. I'm Ruby Jones. This is seven am.
Under Peter Dutton's leadership, the Coalition has placed One Nation
candidate second on scores of how to Vote cards across
the country. The decision goes against decades of principled support
(00:22):
within the Liberal Party to oppose One Nation's prejudice and racism.
It signals a shift not just in strategy, but in
what the Liberals stand for today. National correspondent for the
Saturday Paper, Mike Secam on the preference steal between One
Nation and the Liberal Party and how it could backfire.
(00:47):
It's Wednesday, April thirty, So I wanted to ask what
your first thought was when you heard that the Liberal
Party and One Nation had done a deal to preference
each other on their how to vote Cuz what was
your first thought?
Speaker 2 (01:06):
Well, I thought it was pretty extraordinary. Actually, Coalition voters
are being told to put One Nation second in more
than fifty seats across the country and to rank them
above Labor in one hundred and thirty nine seats. As
far as I know, this is unprecedented. These two parties
have been feuding, I guess you would say, for almost
thirty years, ever since Pauline Hansen was kicked out of
(01:28):
the Liberal Party way back in nineteen ninety six. So
you know, One Nation and the Coalition have been bitter rivals,
I think you would say ever since then, because One
Nation has done its best to peel voters off the
right wing of the Coalition, particularly in Queensland. But clearly
this is no longer the case. They're swapping preferences and
according to Pauline Hansen's chief of staff James Ashby in
(01:50):
an interview last week, it's all about quote saving Peter Dutton.
Speaker 1 (01:54):
Unquote saving Peter Dutton from.
Speaker 2 (01:57):
What well, from losing the election and maybe even his
own seat. You know, at the start of the year,
Dutton and the Coalition were polling very strongly. People were
starting to think they might actually you know, unseat a
one term labor government. But over the course of the
campaign the wheels have really fallen off and the Albanesi
government has now odds on to be returned, either in
(02:17):
as a minority government or maybe even in majority. Meanwhile,
Peter Dutton's personal approval is tanking. You know. Bear in
mind he only holds his seat Dixon on the queens
Ane Sunshine Coast by about one point seven percent.
Speaker 3 (02:30):
Well, what happened was in the preference preferences, and it's
only a recommendation. I must tell you listeners.
Speaker 2 (02:36):
That, according to Hanson herself, this preference deal came about
because Clive Palmer had put Teal candidates above the Coalition
in some.
Speaker 3 (02:45):
Seats, and he's supposed to be a conservative his preferencing
the Teals and going to labor before the coalition.
Speaker 2 (02:53):
So she decided that One Nation needed to act.
Speaker 3 (02:56):
That's why we changed our preferences in eleven seats and
we've put him by coalition now.
Speaker 2 (03:02):
Frankly, it was also a bit of a stunt, you know,
because it focused attention on Hanson and One Nation, which
you know they desperately need.
Speaker 1 (03:09):
Okay, So Mike tell me, though, what this arrangement looks
like in practice. If we were to take Peter Dutton's
seat in Brisbane, for example, how does the deal work.
Speaker 2 (03:20):
Well, right up until pre polling started, which was last Tuesday,
One Nation had its how to vote cards out there
telling voters to put Peter Dutton fourth in the seat
of Dixon. Then just before pre polling, the party suddenly
issued knew how to vote cards elevating Dutton to second place,
and in return, the Liberals in a bunch of seats,
(03:40):
including Dutton's, have put One Nation in third place just
after Family First.
Speaker 1 (03:46):
Tell me a bit more about Family First, Mike, and
I suppose the significance of the coalition preferencing them right well.
Speaker 2 (03:54):
In almost all the seats where it has not placed
One Nation second, the coalition has endorsed Family First for
the second spot. Someone I was speaking to about this
described Family First as quote, one nation with Bibles unquote.
It's a religious based party, very much in the mold
of the sort of religious right in America. It's anti gay,
anti trans, anti abortion, anti euthanasia, anti surrogacy. It opposes
(04:17):
renewable energy and the Paris Court on climate change. It
opposes multiculturalism. It wants an end to Muslim immigration to Australia.
It opposes tighter gun laws. It advocates for radically increased
military spending. It's not much different from One Nation, frankly,
and Family First is running ninety two candidates in the
Lower House and two Senate candidates in Queensland, New South Wales,
(04:40):
Victoria and South Australia. So anyway, it's second on Dutton Seed.
In Dixon, it's also second on the ticket of the
Liberal's deputy leader, Susan Lee, who very much like her leader,
put Family First in second spot, One Nation in third.
The Challow treasurer Angus Taylor put Family First second, a
Libertarian can at third, and One Nation fourth. So variations
(05:04):
on this theme have been repeated all across the country.
Only in a handful of seats where they're trying to
win back very moderate constituencies. Have they not put these
two right wing parties at the top of the ticket.
Speaker 1 (05:14):
Okay, So these deals have been done, Mike, with both
Family First and One Nation to preference each other in
various ways. But even though there might seem to be
some alignment in the values of some of these parties,
One Nation and the Liberals have been at war for decades,
as you said earlier. So tell me more about that
and how they fell out in the first place.
Speaker 2 (05:36):
Well, we go all the way back to the nineteen
ninety six election John Howard versus Paul Keating. Pauline Hansen
was at that stage the endorsed Liberal candidate in the
Western Brisbane seat of Oxley out near Ipswich, but she'd
started causing problems for the party. She kept going off script.
She had twice been formally warned about expressing her I
think you would call them extreme prejudices against Indigenous Australians
(05:59):
and as migrants. And then came the third and final straw.
She gave a newspaper interview where she attacked welfare payments
to Indigenous people and also to Chinese and other migrants.
And the Queens and State Director of the Liberal Party
was Jim Barron, and just three days out from the election,
he decided enough was enough and he called her in
and told her he was disindorsing her. I spoke to
(06:21):
him about this and he said that the conversation wins
something along these lines. He said, you're just refusing to
play along. You're not behaving as a Liberal candidate. You're
running against our policies, and she replied pretty much, bring
it on. It didn't seem like a very consequential decision
at that point because the seat that she was contesting, Oxley,
(06:42):
the Liberals didn't really expect to win anyway. It was
one of the safest labor electorates in the country. But
to everyone's surprise, Hanson won six.
Speaker 4 (06:51):
Weeks ago, hardly anyone had ever heard of Pauline Hanson.
Now she's the name in just about every radio bulletin
every television newscast, a newspaper. No one can recall anything
like it. She is a phenomenon.
Speaker 2 (07:05):
And then in September that year ninety six, she gave
her infamous first speech in Parliament saying that Australia was
in danger of being swamped by Asians.
Speaker 5 (07:14):
It is refreshing to be able to express my views
without having to tow a party line. It has got
me into trouble on the odd occasion, but I am
not going to stop saying what I think.
Speaker 2 (07:26):
And then she set up her own party, One Nation, okay.
Speaker 1 (07:30):
And so once Pauline Hansen got in, Mike, how did
her old party? How did the Liberal Party treat her? Well?
Speaker 2 (07:37):
They have ever since largely kept their distance. And so
in the nineteen ninety eight and two thousand and one elections,
One Nation candidates were placed last on the Liberal how
to Vote cards. But you know there was internal debate
about it. The issue has reared its head at various
points since. In twenty seventeen, for example, the Libs in
Western Australia decided they would preference one day ahead of
(08:00):
the nationals. If you can believe it, John Howard, you know, ever,
the political Opportunist came out and supported that, saying, oh,
one nation has changed. Of course it really hadn't as
recently as twenty nineteen. It came up again. At that
time there were media revelations about One Nation's links to
the US gun lobby. Former Prime Minister Tony Abbott, among
(08:20):
others on the parties right argued they should still be
preferenced ahead of Labor, but Scott Morrison eventually made a
big show of ordering Labor to be placed above One Nation.
So that's been the history, and then along came Peter
Dutton and things have changed.
Speaker 1 (08:38):
After the break how the Liberal Party has shifted.
Speaker 3 (08:41):
Right.
Speaker 6 (08:49):
Hi, I'm Daniel James. Seven Am tells stories that need
to be told. Journalism is founded on trust and independence
and now we're increasing our coverage today until the election.
Will bring you an extra episode to break down the
biggest political moments of the week. If you enjoy seven am,
the best way you can support us is by making
a contribution at seven am podcast dot com dot au
(09:13):
slash support. Thanks for listening and supporting our work.
Speaker 1 (09:19):
Mike, you've been speaking to Liberal Party elders, people who
were instrumental in pushing Pauline Hanson out of the party
in the first place. Now we're in a position where
the Liberals are preferencing her party One Nation. So how
are these people that you're talking to reacting to that?
Speaker 2 (09:39):
Well, Jim Barron, the former state director who actually checked
her out, told me he was appalled, and I'll quote
him because he was very strong. He said, all these
years later, the Liberal Party has embraced the person who
at once excommunicated. That's what he told me. He went
on to say, it's devastating, and I think it says
more about the Liberal Party than it does about One Nation.
(10:00):
Its radical, hard line racist policies used to be at
the fringe of politics. Now they no longer live on
the fringe. The Liberal Party has pretty much normalized a
lot of what Hanson was going on about.
Speaker 1 (10:11):
Okay, so pretty strong stuff, then, Mike.
Speaker 2 (10:14):
Very very strong stuff, and he's right. This is a
slap in the face for those who historically fought to
distance the Coalition from Hansonism. Ron Boswell, for example, was
a national senator who represented Queensland for more than thirty years.
In his valedictory speech when he left Parliament about a
decade ago, he actually said that he had, quoting again,
(10:35):
risked everything to stand up against Paulin Hanson's aggressive, narrow
view of Australia. He said it was the greatest thing
he'd done in his entire thirty year career. When I
contacted Boswell, he declined to comment directly on the coalition's
preference decision at this election, but he did point out
that previously he had threatened not to stand again if
the Coalition preferenced one Nation, So that's how strongly he
(10:57):
felt about it.
Speaker 1 (10:58):
Okay. So given that, then, Mike, what does this deal
say to you about the current Liberal Party and how
its ideology is shifting under Dutton?
Speaker 2 (11:08):
Well, I would argue it's been shifting even before Dutton.
You know, the Libs have been drifting right woods ever
since John Howard. There was something of a purge of
the moderates under him. Then, of course we had Tony Abbott,
hard man of the right, who took the party arguably
even further to the right. And Peter Dutton is very
much a creature of the Queensland Liberal National Party, which
(11:29):
is very conservative. He's part of the party's hard right.
Back in twenty seventeen, Peter Dutton said of Pauline Hanson,
she doesn't deliver on it, but she says a lot
of things that people want to hear. So some of
Dutton's positioning on matters of race, migration, Islam, cultural issues
in general, his views are not a million miles from Hanson's. Frankly, okay.
Speaker 1 (11:50):
So to come back to the preference deal, then, how
much of an impact do you think that that is
actually likely to have Mike on how people ultimately decide
to vote.
Speaker 2 (12:00):
Look, it's hard to determine the extent to which voters
will be influenced by how to vote cards. After all,
they're only the party's recommendation of how you should vote.
You don't have to follow it. And a lot less
people use how to vote cards these days than they
did in the past. Back in the nineteen eighties and
the early nineteen nineties, about sixty percent of people would
follow the how to vote card. These days, it's only
(12:22):
about one in three. According to Professor In McAllister, who
I spoke to, he's Distinguished Professor of Political Science at
the ANU, and he says that people are not only
less likely to follow how to vote cards, they're also
much more likely to vote tactically. And he gave me
an example citing the Teal wave at the last election.
He said that a huge number of people, almost half
(12:45):
of those who voted for the Teals, were voting tactically.
They were former Greens and Labor voters who voted Teal
essentially to get the sitting liberal out. They weren't disaffected
liberal voters, and this adds to other evidence from past
elections that suggest progressively inclined voters are more disciplined and
tactical than right wing voters. So between eighty and eighty
(13:07):
five percent of those who vote number one for the Greens,
those preferences eventually flow back to Labor, even if they
pass through other left of center candidates en route. But
only about sixty percent of one nation preferences come back
to the Coalition. When I spoke to the ABC's election
analyst Anthony Green about this, he said that the concern
for the Coalition has always been when the Coalition loses
(13:30):
votes to these right wing parties, they tend to wander off.
These are his words. They tend to wander off all
around the ballot paper. They don't automatically come back, and
if history is any guide, the overwhelming majority of Green's
preferences and Teal voters preferences will ultimately flow back to Labor.
So the big question in this election campaign is whether
(13:51):
the embrace by Dutton and the Opposition of One Nation
and Family First will bring them a similar benefit, or
given their very divisive policies, will it simply drive away
more votes than it attracts. All I can say is
we'll know pretty soon.
Speaker 1 (14:11):
Indeed it's not well, Mike, Thank you so much for
your time.
Speaker 2 (14:15):
Thanks a lot.
Speaker 1 (14:31):
Also in the news today, Labor has announced it will
fund some of its election promises by raising visa fees
for international students. Finance Minister Katie Gallahas says the fee
hike only amounts to a small rise, up from sixteen
hundred dollars to two thousand. Meanwhile, when asked about the
costings for the coalitions election promises, Opposition leader Peter Dutton
(14:51):
said they'll be provided in due course, but says they
have been properly funded and prominent indigenous leaders have accused
politicians of fueling division over Welcome to Country ceremonies following
Peter Dutton's comments that the ceremonies were overused. Former Liberal
minister Ken Wyatt says Welcome to Country ceremonies are not political,
(15:13):
and co chair of the Ularoo Dialogue Pat Anderson says
the ceremonies are not about welcoming people to Australia, but
to cultures and lands. I'm Ruby Jones. This is seven am.
Thanks for listening.
From Schwartz Media. I'm Ruby Jones. This is seven am.
Under Peter Dutton's leadership, the Coalition has placed One Nation
candidate second on scores of how to Vote cards across
the country. The decision goes against decades of principled support
(00:22):
within the Liberal Party to oppose One Nation's prejudice and racism.
It signals a shift not just in strategy, but in
what the Liberals stand for today. National correspondent for the
Saturday Paper, Mike Secam on the preference steal between One
Nation and the Liberal Party and how it could backfire.
(00:47):
It's Wednesday, April thirty, So I wanted to ask what
your first thought was when you heard that the Liberal
Party and One Nation had done a deal to preference
each other on their how to vote Cuz what was
your first thought?
Speaker 2 (01:06):
Well, I thought it was pretty extraordinary. Actually, Coalition voters
are being told to put One Nation second in more
than fifty seats across the country and to rank them
above Labor in one hundred and thirty nine seats. As
far as I know, this is unprecedented. These two parties
have been feuding, I guess you would say, for almost
thirty years, ever since Pauline Hansen was kicked out of
(01:28):
the Liberal Party way back in nineteen ninety six. So
you know, One Nation and the Coalition have been bitter rivals,
I think you would say ever since then, because One
Nation has done its best to peel voters off the
right wing of the Coalition, particularly in Queensland. But clearly
this is no longer the case. They're swapping preferences and
according to Pauline Hansen's chief of staff James Ashby in
(01:50):
an interview last week, it's all about quote saving Peter Dutton.
Speaker 1 (01:54):
Unquote saving Peter Dutton from.
Speaker 2 (01:57):
What well, from losing the election and maybe even his
own seat. You know, at the start of the year,
Dutton and the Coalition were polling very strongly. People were
starting to think they might actually you know, unseat a
one term labor government. But over the course of the
campaign the wheels have really fallen off and the Albanesi
government has now odds on to be returned, either in
(02:17):
as a minority government or maybe even in majority. Meanwhile,
Peter Dutton's personal approval is tanking. You know. Bear in
mind he only holds his seat Dixon on the queens
Ane Sunshine Coast by about one point seven percent.
Speaker 3 (02:30):
Well, what happened was in the preference preferences, and it's
only a recommendation. I must tell you listeners.
Speaker 2 (02:36):
That, according to Hanson herself, this preference deal came about
because Clive Palmer had put Teal candidates above the Coalition
in some.
Speaker 3 (02:45):
Seats, and he's supposed to be a conservative his preferencing
the Teals and going to labor before the coalition.
Speaker 2 (02:53):
So she decided that One Nation needed to act.
Speaker 3 (02:56):
That's why we changed our preferences in eleven seats and
we've put him by coalition now.
Speaker 2 (03:02):
Frankly, it was also a bit of a stunt, you know,
because it focused attention on Hanson and One Nation, which
you know they desperately need.
Speaker 1 (03:09):
Okay, So Mike tell me, though, what this arrangement looks
like in practice. If we were to take Peter Dutton's
seat in Brisbane, for example, how does the deal work.
Speaker 2 (03:20):
Well, right up until pre polling started, which was last Tuesday,
One Nation had its how to vote cards out there
telling voters to put Peter Dutton fourth in the seat
of Dixon. Then just before pre polling, the party suddenly
issued knew how to vote cards elevating Dutton to second place,
and in return, the Liberals in a bunch of seats,
(03:40):
including Dutton's, have put One Nation in third place just
after Family First.
Speaker 1 (03:46):
Tell me a bit more about Family First, Mike, and
I suppose the significance of the coalition preferencing them right well.
Speaker 2 (03:54):
In almost all the seats where it has not placed
One Nation second, the coalition has endorsed Family First for
the second spot. Someone I was speaking to about this
described Family First as quote, one nation with Bibles unquote.
It's a religious based party, very much in the mold
of the sort of religious right in America. It's anti gay,
anti trans, anti abortion, anti euthanasia, anti surrogacy. It opposes
(04:17):
renewable energy and the Paris Court on climate change. It
opposes multiculturalism. It wants an end to Muslim immigration to Australia.
It opposes tighter gun laws. It advocates for radically increased
military spending. It's not much different from One Nation, frankly,
and Family First is running ninety two candidates in the
Lower House and two Senate candidates in Queensland, New South Wales,
(04:40):
Victoria and South Australia. So anyway, it's second on Dutton Seed.
In Dixon, it's also second on the ticket of the
Liberal's deputy leader, Susan Lee, who very much like her leader,
put Family First in second spot, One Nation in third.
The Challow treasurer Angus Taylor put Family First second, a
Libertarian can at third, and One Nation fourth. So variations
(05:04):
on this theme have been repeated all across the country.
Only in a handful of seats where they're trying to
win back very moderate constituencies. Have they not put these
two right wing parties at the top of the ticket.
Speaker 1 (05:14):
Okay, So these deals have been done, Mike, with both
Family First and One Nation to preference each other in
various ways. But even though there might seem to be
some alignment in the values of some of these parties,
One Nation and the Liberals have been at war for decades,
as you said earlier. So tell me more about that
and how they fell out in the first place.
Speaker 2 (05:36):
Well, we go all the way back to the nineteen
ninety six election John Howard versus Paul Keating. Pauline Hansen
was at that stage the endorsed Liberal candidate in the
Western Brisbane seat of Oxley out near Ipswich, but she'd
started causing problems for the party. She kept going off script.
She had twice been formally warned about expressing her I
think you would call them extreme prejudices against Indigenous Australians
(05:59):
and as migrants. And then came the third and final straw.
She gave a newspaper interview where she attacked welfare payments
to Indigenous people and also to Chinese and other migrants.
And the Queens and State Director of the Liberal Party
was Jim Barron, and just three days out from the election,
he decided enough was enough and he called her in
and told her he was disindorsing her. I spoke to
(06:21):
him about this and he said that the conversation wins
something along these lines. He said, you're just refusing to
play along. You're not behaving as a Liberal candidate. You're
running against our policies, and she replied pretty much, bring
it on. It didn't seem like a very consequential decision
at that point because the seat that she was contesting, Oxley,
(06:42):
the Liberals didn't really expect to win anyway. It was
one of the safest labor electorates in the country. But
to everyone's surprise, Hanson won six.
Speaker 4 (06:51):
Weeks ago, hardly anyone had ever heard of Pauline Hanson.
Now she's the name in just about every radio bulletin
every television newscast, a newspaper. No one can recall anything
like it. She is a phenomenon.
Speaker 2 (07:05):
And then in September that year ninety six, she gave
her infamous first speech in Parliament saying that Australia was
in danger of being swamped by Asians.
Speaker 5 (07:14):
It is refreshing to be able to express my views
without having to tow a party line. It has got
me into trouble on the odd occasion, but I am
not going to stop saying what I think.
Speaker 2 (07:26):
And then she set up her own party, One Nation, okay.
Speaker 1 (07:30):
And so once Pauline Hansen got in, Mike, how did
her old party? How did the Liberal Party treat her? Well?
Speaker 2 (07:37):
They have ever since largely kept their distance. And so
in the nineteen ninety eight and two thousand and one elections,
One Nation candidates were placed last on the Liberal how
to Vote cards. But you know there was internal debate
about it. The issue has reared its head at various
points since. In twenty seventeen, for example, the Libs in
Western Australia decided they would preference one day ahead of
(08:00):
the nationals. If you can believe it, John Howard, you know, ever,
the political Opportunist came out and supported that, saying, oh,
one nation has changed. Of course it really hadn't as
recently as twenty nineteen. It came up again. At that
time there were media revelations about One Nation's links to
the US gun lobby. Former Prime Minister Tony Abbott, among
(08:20):
others on the parties right argued they should still be
preferenced ahead of Labor, but Scott Morrison eventually made a
big show of ordering Labor to be placed above One Nation.
So that's been the history, and then along came Peter
Dutton and things have changed.
Speaker 1 (08:38):
After the break how the Liberal Party has shifted.
Speaker 3 (08:41):
Right.
Speaker 6 (08:49):
Hi, I'm Daniel James. Seven Am tells stories that need
to be told. Journalism is founded on trust and independence
and now we're increasing our coverage today until the election.
Will bring you an extra episode to break down the
biggest political moments of the week. If you enjoy seven am,
the best way you can support us is by making
a contribution at seven am podcast dot com dot au
(09:13):
slash support. Thanks for listening and supporting our work.
Speaker 1 (09:19):
Mike, you've been speaking to Liberal Party elders, people who
were instrumental in pushing Pauline Hanson out of the party
in the first place. Now we're in a position where
the Liberals are preferencing her party One Nation. So how
are these people that you're talking to reacting to that?
Speaker 2 (09:39):
Well, Jim Barron, the former state director who actually checked
her out, told me he was appalled, and I'll quote
him because he was very strong. He said, all these
years later, the Liberal Party has embraced the person who
at once excommunicated. That's what he told me. He went
on to say, it's devastating, and I think it says
more about the Liberal Party than it does about One Nation.
(10:00):
Its radical, hard line racist policies used to be at
the fringe of politics. Now they no longer live on
the fringe. The Liberal Party has pretty much normalized a
lot of what Hanson was going on about.
Speaker 1 (10:11):
Okay, so pretty strong stuff, then, Mike.
Speaker 2 (10:14):
Very very strong stuff, and he's right. This is a
slap in the face for those who historically fought to
distance the Coalition from Hansonism. Ron Boswell, for example, was
a national senator who represented Queensland for more than thirty years.
In his valedictory speech when he left Parliament about a
decade ago, he actually said that he had, quoting again,
(10:35):
risked everything to stand up against Paulin Hanson's aggressive, narrow
view of Australia. He said it was the greatest thing
he'd done in his entire thirty year career. When I
contacted Boswell, he declined to comment directly on the coalition's
preference decision at this election, but he did point out
that previously he had threatened not to stand again if
the Coalition preferenced one Nation, So that's how strongly he
(10:57):
felt about it.
Speaker 1 (10:58):
Okay. So given that, then, Mike, what does this deal
say to you about the current Liberal Party and how
its ideology is shifting under Dutton?
Speaker 2 (11:08):
Well, I would argue it's been shifting even before Dutton.
You know, the Libs have been drifting right woods ever
since John Howard. There was something of a purge of
the moderates under him. Then, of course we had Tony Abbott,
hard man of the right, who took the party arguably
even further to the right. And Peter Dutton is very
much a creature of the Queensland Liberal National Party, which
(11:29):
is very conservative. He's part of the party's hard right.
Back in twenty seventeen, Peter Dutton said of Pauline Hanson,
she doesn't deliver on it, but she says a lot
of things that people want to hear. So some of
Dutton's positioning on matters of race, migration, Islam, cultural issues
in general, his views are not a million miles from Hanson's. Frankly, okay.
Speaker 1 (11:50):
So to come back to the preference deal, then, how
much of an impact do you think that that is
actually likely to have Mike on how people ultimately decide
to vote.
Speaker 2 (12:00):
Look, it's hard to determine the extent to which voters
will be influenced by how to vote cards. After all,
they're only the party's recommendation of how you should vote.
You don't have to follow it. And a lot less
people use how to vote cards these days than they
did in the past. Back in the nineteen eighties and
the early nineteen nineties, about sixty percent of people would
follow the how to vote card. These days, it's only
(12:22):
about one in three. According to Professor In McAllister, who
I spoke to, he's Distinguished Professor of Political Science at
the ANU, and he says that people are not only
less likely to follow how to vote cards, they're also
much more likely to vote tactically. And he gave me
an example citing the Teal wave at the last election.
He said that a huge number of people, almost half
(12:45):
of those who voted for the Teals, were voting tactically.
They were former Greens and Labor voters who voted Teal
essentially to get the sitting liberal out. They weren't disaffected
liberal voters, and this adds to other evidence from past
elections that suggest progressively inclined voters are more disciplined and
tactical than right wing voters. So between eighty and eighty
(13:07):
five percent of those who vote number one for the Greens,
those preferences eventually flow back to Labor, even if they
pass through other left of center candidates en route. But
only about sixty percent of one nation preferences come back
to the Coalition. When I spoke to the ABC's election
analyst Anthony Green about this, he said that the concern
for the Coalition has always been when the Coalition loses
(13:30):
votes to these right wing parties, they tend to wander off.
These are his words. They tend to wander off all
around the ballot paper. They don't automatically come back, and
if history is any guide, the overwhelming majority of Green's
preferences and Teal voters preferences will ultimately flow back to Labor.
So the big question in this election campaign is whether
(13:51):
the embrace by Dutton and the Opposition of One Nation
and Family First will bring them a similar benefit, or
given their very divisive policies, will it simply drive away
more votes than it attracts. All I can say is
we'll know pretty soon.
Speaker 1 (14:11):
Indeed it's not well, Mike, Thank you so much for
your time.
Speaker 2 (14:15):
Thanks a lot.
Speaker 1 (14:31):
Also in the news today, Labor has announced it will
fund some of its election promises by raising visa fees
for international students. Finance Minister Katie Gallahas says the fee
hike only amounts to a small rise, up from sixteen
hundred dollars to two thousand. Meanwhile, when asked about the
costings for the coalitions election promises, Opposition leader Peter Dutton
(14:51):
said they'll be provided in due course, but says they
have been properly funded and prominent indigenous leaders have accused
politicians of fueling division over Welcome to Country ceremonies following
Peter Dutton's comments that the ceremonies were overused. Former Liberal
minister Ken Wyatt says Welcome to Country ceremonies are not political,
(15:13):
and co chair of the Ularoo Dialogue Pat Anderson says
the ceremonies are not about welcoming people to Australia, but
to cultures and lands. I'm Ruby Jones. This is seven am.
Thanks for listening.
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