April 27, 2025 • 14 mins
As we head to the polls this weekend, election analyst Ben Raue has been calculating the path to victory for the major parties.
The Coalition needs to pick up 18 seats to win, while if Labor loses four seats, they lose their majority.
But as the electorate shifts in all kinds of surprising ways, the path to victory is becoming increasingly complicated for the major parties.
Today, analyst at The Tally Room Ben Raue, on the seats that will decide the election – and why Victoria matters more than ever.
If you enjoy 7am, the best way you can support us is by making a contribution at 7ampodcast.com.au/support.
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Guest: Analyst at The Tally Room, Ben Raue.
Photo: AAP / Lukas Coch
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Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Ben, thanks for speaking with me. If you had to
pick one seat that could act as a litmus test
for either party, which way would you choose.
Speaker 2 (00:07):
Well, there's going to be a lot of seats that matter,
but one that I am really paying attention to is Benelong.
Speaker 1 (00:13):
It's Christmas time for Ben Rowie. He's an election analyst
who spends his days thinking about the historical trends in
places like the seat of Benelong in Sydney.
Speaker 2 (00:22):
It's a seat that was a traditional safe Liberal seat
before John Howard famously lost it in two thousand and seven.
Labour now holds it, but it was actually redrawn in
the redistribution such that it's now on paper a Liberal
Party seat. Earlier in this campaign, everyone thought it was
a goner for Labor that they were going to lose
that seat, But as they've been recovering in the polls,
(00:44):
seats like Benelong are now looking a lot more competitive.
Speaker 1 (00:47):
As we head to the polls this weekend, Ben's been
calculated the path to victory for the major parties. The
Coalition needs to pick up eighteen seats to win, while
if Labour loses four seats they lose their majority. But
as the electric shifts in all kinds of surprising ways.
The path to victory for the major parties is more
complicated than ever. From Schwartz Media, I'm Daniel James. This
(01:11):
is seven am today. Analyst at the tally Room, Ben
Rowy on the seats that were beside the election and
why Victoria matters more than ever. It's Monday, April twenty eight.
(01:32):
I want to talk to you about Peter Dutton's past
to victory. We know he's spent his leadership focused on
outer suburbs and regional seats. So which seats does he
look like winning that the Coalition doesn't already have.
Speaker 2 (01:44):
Yes, So in twenty twenty two, the Coalition lost a
bunch of seats in the inner cities. That was a
big part of their losses. They lost seats to Teal Independence,
they lost seats to Labor and a few to the Greens.
A lot of those seats were in the inner city.
There was a couple of others that were kind of
mid suburban seats that have large Chinese populations. And then
(02:05):
they also lost a number of seats in Western Australia.
And so a lot of the seats that are in
their path to victory are those electorates, but the Coalition
has also been looking for new seats, seats that they've
never won before, where they can try and focus their efforts,
seemingly as a way to kind of counterbalance an expectation
that it might be hard to win back those inner
(02:25):
city seats they lost last election.
Speaker 1 (02:27):
Tell me more about those seats, particularly the ones that
they've never won before.
Speaker 2 (02:31):
Yeah, so I've been really fascinated by the way Peter
Dutton has focused on petrol prices talking about fuel excise.
There's a number of seats in the outer suburbs, mostly
of Sydney and Melbourne. I'm thinking of Wherrerower in the
southwest of Sydney that covers parts of Liverpool area. That
seat was held by Golf Whitlam was held by Mark
Latham was a very safe labor seat, but with each
(02:54):
wave of politics going this way and that back and forth,
it has been getting less and less safe for labor
and it's probably a little bit beyond the stretch of
the coalition. But those are the kinds of seats that
the Coalition is hoping to bring into their orbit so
that they can make up for those Teal losses. So
where was one of them. There's Hawk in the outer
suburbs of Melbourne. You've got Holton Bruce in the southeast
(03:16):
of Melbourne, and then you also have Shortland, which is
on the southern outskirts of Newcastle in New South Wales.
Speaker 1 (03:23):
You mentioned it before, but a lot has been made
of the Teal seats taken from the Liberals the last election.
Any of them at risk of going back to the
Liberals set this election or changing hands to other candidates.
Speaker 2 (03:34):
Most of the Teal seats are not particularly safe for
the Independence who hold them. They are all first term MPs, though,
and there is historically a lot of evidence that usually
independent MPs when they go up for election for the
first time after they first win their seat, get a
big swing towards them and solidify their hold on their seat.
That happened with Zalie Stegle in twenty twenty two because
(03:55):
she was elected in twenty nineteen. So the others they
may get that swing towards them, but it may be
a little bit different because so many of them were
all elected at the same time. The dynamics might play
out a little bit differently. We're going to have to
wait and see there's definitely a few. I would mention
Curtain in Perth Mckella in Northern Sydney. They are both
very marginal teal seats and I think if any of
(04:18):
them are going to fall, they're the ones that are
probably the most vulnerable. But you've got to remember before
twenty to twenty two, Before twenty nineteen, the Liberal Party
had a lock on these seats. These were traditional safe
seats where party leaders came from. You know, most of
the party's leaders over recent decades represented seats that are
(04:38):
now held by tel nps IT seats like Warringa and
Wentworth and Couyong. So you know, even if they can
win some of these seats back as marginal seats, they're
going to play a very different role in that Liberal base.
Speaker 1 (04:52):
Let's look at a couple of those tal seats in
Melbourne where the battle to win those seats seems to
be like at its fear. Talk to me about Monic
Ryan's chances in Kujong and Zoe Daniel's chances in Goldstein.
Speaker 2 (05:08):
So both those seats have been traditional safe Liberal seats
before they were lost at the last election, and the
Liberal Party clearly would like to win them back. And
are putting a big effort into those seats. Both those
MPs have strong bases of volunteer support, and there's also
evidence from other elections, council elections and state elections that
there is a lot of support there for independence. We've
(05:30):
been seeing this trend nationally for quite a while now
that progressive parties have been doing better in urban areas.
They've been doing better amongst voters who have higher education levels,
higher income levels, and some of these electorates like Kujong
and Goldstein fit that quite well. So it didn't come
out of the blue in twenty twenty two when these
(05:51):
MPs lost their seats. You know, the Greens did quite
well in Kujong in twenty nineteen, didn't win, but they
were quite competitive. So I think there is a lot
changing about these electorates that is going to make things
easier for these independents. We're also seeing more development in
these areas, a lot of new residents moving into the
area that maybe are a bit different to the kind
of old money base that has traditionally dominated these kind
(06:16):
of eastern Southeastern electorates in Melbourne, and that's having an
impact and I think a lot of those voters are
going to favor the independent over the Liberal So I
would probably say those independents have a good chance of
being re elected, but the Liberal Party hasn't given up
on those seats. They really don't want to let those
independents lock themselves in.
Speaker 1 (06:39):
Coming up after the break, can Labor improve its chances
in Queensland?
Speaker 3 (06:48):
Hi, Ruby Jones. Here, seven Am tell stories that need
to be told. Our journalism is founded on trust and independence,
and now we're increasing our coverage. Every Saturday until the election,
will bring you an extra episode to break down the
biggest political moments of the week. If you enjoy seven Am,
the best way you can support us is by making
a contribution at seven am podcast dot com dot are
(07:11):
you forward slash support. Thanks for listening and supporting our work.
Speaker 1 (07:17):
We know Peter Dutton there has seen huge opportunity in Victoria.
He launched his campaign there. What are the factors on
a state level that are contributing to the Liberals' rise
and fortunes there?
Speaker 2 (07:28):
Yeah, So when the coalition was at its highest point
in the polls in February, they were gaining ground everywhere,
but they were gaining by far the most ground in Victoria,
while they're only gaining a little bit of support elsewhere
right now, though, these state polling averages show that Labour's
actually gaining a swing in every other mainland state, but
in Victoria there's still a swing of over two percent
(07:50):
to the Coalition. I think part of the story here
is the state Labor government. Labor has been in power
for all but four years over the last twenty six years.
And and you know, Jacinta Allen is the second premier
in the current government. She's not as popular as a
predecessor of the government, just doesn't quite have the popularity
that it once did. And so I think that is
(08:10):
bleeding into federal politics and that is having an effect.
You know, Victoria has been a pretty solid state for
Labor at a federal level for quite a while now.
It's been one of their better states. And if the
results play out the way the Poles are saying right now,
they're going to lose that advantage in Victoria. Victoria is
going to go right back to being basically in line
(08:31):
with national polls.
Speaker 1 (08:33):
Looking beyond Victoria, Western Australia was crucial in twenty twenty
two for the Labor Party. How are they fearing this
time around.
Speaker 2 (08:40):
Yeah. So Western Australia historically has been one of the
most conservative states in Australia, but the twenty twenty two
election totally changed things. In Wa, Labor had already had
this enormous landslide victory in twenty twenty one at the
state election. COVID had really had an impact on state politics,
and they did really well in the federal election. They
were on a number of seats. They even won a
(09:02):
third Senator in Wa, which they'd never done before, which
was essential to them getting a Progressive Senate majority. And
we were all expecting that after that election, Wa would
kind of go a bit back towards normality, you know,
that Labour would lose some support there. Labour's clearly put
a lot of effort into maintaining its position in Western
Australia over the last three years. Right now though they're
(09:23):
not losing any ground in Western Australia. It was the
best result last election, and if the polls were right,
it would be their best result this election too.
Speaker 1 (09:30):
And in Queensland we had the so called Green slide
at the last election with three Greens MPs being elected.
How are those seats looking.
Speaker 2 (09:39):
Yeah, so those three inner city Green seats. They're all
really complicated because they're not clean two horse races. They're
three candidate contests where, particularly in Brisbane and Griffith, the
Greens both need to stay ahead of Labor in the
preference count and then get enough preferences to beat the
Liberal National Party.
Speaker 1 (09:59):
Right way it's.
Speaker 2 (10:00):
Looking is they're looking pretty good in Griffith where they
are clearly the more popular Progressive party, and then they
are clearly beating the l and P. They're looking Okaine Ryan,
where Labour is a lot weaker and it's more of
a straight Greens versus Liberal contest. Brisbane's a bit trickier
because Labour's support is a bit resurgent in Brisbane, and
there's a chance that in Brisbane, even if the Greens
(10:22):
vote stays the same, if there's a swing from the
Liberals to Labor, Labour might overtake the Greens and the
Greens might get knocked out. Queensland more generally, was a
state where Labor really didn't get any luck at the
last election. They didn't contribute at all towards Labour winning government.
Labor did get a swing towards them across the state,
but they didn't gain a single seat. Indeed, they lost
(10:42):
one in the seat of Griffith. Right now, the polls
do say that Labour might pick up a little bit
of extra support in Queensland. So there are a bunch
of Coalish and marginals in Queensland that you know. Last
time Labour one government in two thousand and seven, a
lot of these seats flipped to Labor, but Labour didn't
win any of them into two and I reckon they
have a chance of winning a couple.
Speaker 1 (11:03):
Labor has been persistently polling better than the Coalition throughout
the campaign. Is there now a real chance that the
government could be returned with a majority in the Parliament.
Speaker 2 (11:12):
Yeah, we've been seeing over the last few weeks Labour's
polls have really been improving quite quickly, and we're now
at a point where I think we have to consider
the possibility that even though it's looked like we're going
to get a hung parliament, and even though the large
size of the crossbench increases those chances, it is possible Labor,
like they did in twenty twenty two, could still scrape
across the line and get a majority in their own right.
(11:32):
So it's a good reminder that even though a lot
of people now don't vote for Labor and the Coalition,
they vote for minor parties and independents in the vast
majority of seats. In the end, it's still a Labor
versus coalition contest, and most seats in Parliament are still
Labor or Coalition. But I think minority governments and hung
parliaments are going to become more common and the major
(11:54):
parties are going to have to work out how they
deal with that. Clearly, they're not comfortable with it. They'd
rather it didn't happen that way, and they would be
much more comfortable getting a majority in their own right,
but they're going to have to find ways to negotiate.
You know, Labor clearly isn't very comfortable with its relationship
with the Greens, but an increasingly large proportion of those
people who give Labor a preference are not actually Labor voters.
(12:17):
You know, Labor got about fifty two percent of the
two party preferred vote the last election, but their primary
vote was less than thirty three percent, So almost one
in five people in the country now preference Labor but
didn't vote for Labor as their number one vote, and
so I think that's an increasingly large share of Labour's
base that are going to expect that the party can
do something other than just take its bat and ball
(12:39):
and go home if they find themselves in the Home Parliament.
Speaker 1 (12:44):
Ben, thank you so much for your time. Thanks for
having me. Also in the news. An estimated two hundred
(13:12):
thousand people have attendants of Peter Square in the Vaikan
for the funeral mass of Pope Francis. US President Donald
Trump and Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelenski were both president at
the funeral, the first time the two men have been
in the same place since they're now infamous, meeting in
the Oval Office in March. Trump and Zelenski used the
funeral as an opportunity to take part in private discussions
(13:34):
about a potential deal between Russia and Ukraine that could
lead to a ceasefire and a Dutton leg government would
make electric vehicle drivers pay more for using roads, according
to the coalition's transport spokesperson, Bridget Mackenzie. Senator Mackenzie said
it was an issue of equity, given other motorists pay
for road maintenance through the fuel excise. In an interview
(13:57):
on Insiders, Senator Mackenzie floated the idea, but would not
say how ev drivers would be made to pay, only
insisting it would not be a tax. I'm Daniel James.
This is seven am. See you tomorrow.
Ben, thanks for speaking with me. If you had to
pick one seat that could act as a litmus test
for either party, which way would you choose.
Speaker 2 (00:07):
Well, there's going to be a lot of seats that matter,
but one that I am really paying attention to is Benelong.
Speaker 1 (00:13):
It's Christmas time for Ben Rowie. He's an election analyst
who spends his days thinking about the historical trends in
places like the seat of Benelong in Sydney.
Speaker 2 (00:22):
It's a seat that was a traditional safe Liberal seat
before John Howard famously lost it in two thousand and seven.
Labour now holds it, but it was actually redrawn in
the redistribution such that it's now on paper a Liberal
Party seat. Earlier in this campaign, everyone thought it was
a goner for Labor that they were going to lose
that seat, But as they've been recovering in the polls,
(00:44):
seats like Benelong are now looking a lot more competitive.
Speaker 1 (00:47):
As we head to the polls this weekend, Ben's been
calculated the path to victory for the major parties. The
Coalition needs to pick up eighteen seats to win, while
if Labour loses four seats they lose their majority. But
as the electric shifts in all kinds of surprising ways.
The path to victory for the major parties is more
complicated than ever. From Schwartz Media, I'm Daniel James. This
(01:11):
is seven am today. Analyst at the tally Room, Ben
Rowy on the seats that were beside the election and
why Victoria matters more than ever. It's Monday, April twenty eight.
(01:32):
I want to talk to you about Peter Dutton's past
to victory. We know he's spent his leadership focused on
outer suburbs and regional seats. So which seats does he
look like winning that the Coalition doesn't already have.
Speaker 2 (01:44):
Yes, So in twenty twenty two, the Coalition lost a
bunch of seats in the inner cities. That was a
big part of their losses. They lost seats to Teal Independence,
they lost seats to Labor and a few to the Greens.
A lot of those seats were in the inner city.
There was a couple of others that were kind of
mid suburban seats that have large Chinese populations. And then
(02:05):
they also lost a number of seats in Western Australia.
And so a lot of the seats that are in
their path to victory are those electorates, but the Coalition
has also been looking for new seats, seats that they've
never won before, where they can try and focus their efforts,
seemingly as a way to kind of counterbalance an expectation
that it might be hard to win back those inner
(02:25):
city seats they lost last election.
Speaker 1 (02:27):
Tell me more about those seats, particularly the ones that
they've never won before.
Speaker 2 (02:31):
Yeah, so I've been really fascinated by the way Peter
Dutton has focused on petrol prices talking about fuel excise.
There's a number of seats in the outer suburbs, mostly
of Sydney and Melbourne. I'm thinking of Wherrerower in the
southwest of Sydney that covers parts of Liverpool area. That
seat was held by Golf Whitlam was held by Mark
Latham was a very safe labor seat, but with each
(02:54):
wave of politics going this way and that back and forth,
it has been getting less and less safe for labor
and it's probably a little bit beyond the stretch of
the coalition. But those are the kinds of seats that
the Coalition is hoping to bring into their orbit so
that they can make up for those Teal losses. So
where was one of them. There's Hawk in the outer
suburbs of Melbourne. You've got Holton Bruce in the southeast
(03:16):
of Melbourne, and then you also have Shortland, which is
on the southern outskirts of Newcastle in New South Wales.
Speaker 1 (03:23):
You mentioned it before, but a lot has been made
of the Teal seats taken from the Liberals the last election.
Any of them at risk of going back to the
Liberals set this election or changing hands to other candidates.
Speaker 2 (03:34):
Most of the Teal seats are not particularly safe for
the Independence who hold them. They are all first term MPs, though,
and there is historically a lot of evidence that usually
independent MPs when they go up for election for the
first time after they first win their seat, get a
big swing towards them and solidify their hold on their seat.
That happened with Zalie Stegle in twenty twenty two because
(03:55):
she was elected in twenty nineteen. So the others they
may get that swing towards them, but it may be
a little bit different because so many of them were
all elected at the same time. The dynamics might play
out a little bit differently. We're going to have to
wait and see there's definitely a few. I would mention
Curtain in Perth Mckella in Northern Sydney. They are both
very marginal teal seats and I think if any of
(04:18):
them are going to fall, they're the ones that are
probably the most vulnerable. But you've got to remember before
twenty to twenty two, Before twenty nineteen, the Liberal Party
had a lock on these seats. These were traditional safe
seats where party leaders came from. You know, most of
the party's leaders over recent decades represented seats that are
(04:38):
now held by tel nps IT seats like Warringa and
Wentworth and Couyong. So you know, even if they can
win some of these seats back as marginal seats, they're
going to play a very different role in that Liberal base.
Speaker 1 (04:52):
Let's look at a couple of those tal seats in
Melbourne where the battle to win those seats seems to
be like at its fear. Talk to me about Monic
Ryan's chances in Kujong and Zoe Daniel's chances in Goldstein.
Speaker 2 (05:08):
So both those seats have been traditional safe Liberal seats
before they were lost at the last election, and the
Liberal Party clearly would like to win them back. And
are putting a big effort into those seats. Both those
MPs have strong bases of volunteer support, and there's also
evidence from other elections, council elections and state elections that
there is a lot of support there for independence. We've
(05:30):
been seeing this trend nationally for quite a while now
that progressive parties have been doing better in urban areas.
They've been doing better amongst voters who have higher education levels,
higher income levels, and some of these electorates like Kujong
and Goldstein fit that quite well. So it didn't come
out of the blue in twenty twenty two when these
(05:51):
MPs lost their seats. You know, the Greens did quite
well in Kujong in twenty nineteen, didn't win, but they
were quite competitive. So I think there is a lot
changing about these electorates that is going to make things
easier for these independents. We're also seeing more development in
these areas, a lot of new residents moving into the
area that maybe are a bit different to the kind
of old money base that has traditionally dominated these kind
(06:16):
of eastern Southeastern electorates in Melbourne, and that's having an
impact and I think a lot of those voters are
going to favor the independent over the Liberal So I
would probably say those independents have a good chance of
being re elected, but the Liberal Party hasn't given up
on those seats. They really don't want to let those
independents lock themselves in.
Speaker 1 (06:39):
Coming up after the break, can Labor improve its chances
in Queensland?
Speaker 3 (06:48):
Hi, Ruby Jones. Here, seven Am tell stories that need
to be told. Our journalism is founded on trust and independence,
and now we're increasing our coverage. Every Saturday until the election,
will bring you an extra episode to break down the
biggest political moments of the week. If you enjoy seven Am,
the best way you can support us is by making
a contribution at seven am podcast dot com dot are
(07:11):
you forward slash support. Thanks for listening and supporting our work.
Speaker 1 (07:17):
We know Peter Dutton there has seen huge opportunity in Victoria.
He launched his campaign there. What are the factors on
a state level that are contributing to the Liberals' rise
and fortunes there?
Speaker 2 (07:28):
Yeah, So when the coalition was at its highest point
in the polls in February, they were gaining ground everywhere,
but they were gaining by far the most ground in Victoria,
while they're only gaining a little bit of support elsewhere
right now, though, these state polling averages show that Labour's
actually gaining a swing in every other mainland state, but
in Victoria there's still a swing of over two percent
(07:50):
to the Coalition. I think part of the story here
is the state Labor government. Labor has been in power
for all but four years over the last twenty six years.
And and you know, Jacinta Allen is the second premier
in the current government. She's not as popular as a
predecessor of the government, just doesn't quite have the popularity
that it once did. And so I think that is
(08:10):
bleeding into federal politics and that is having an effect.
You know, Victoria has been a pretty solid state for
Labor at a federal level for quite a while now.
It's been one of their better states. And if the
results play out the way the Poles are saying right now,
they're going to lose that advantage in Victoria. Victoria is
going to go right back to being basically in line
(08:31):
with national polls.
Speaker 1 (08:33):
Looking beyond Victoria, Western Australia was crucial in twenty twenty
two for the Labor Party. How are they fearing this
time around.
Speaker 2 (08:40):
Yeah. So Western Australia historically has been one of the
most conservative states in Australia, but the twenty twenty two
election totally changed things. In Wa, Labor had already had
this enormous landslide victory in twenty twenty one at the
state election. COVID had really had an impact on state politics,
and they did really well in the federal election. They
were on a number of seats. They even won a
(09:02):
third Senator in Wa, which they'd never done before, which
was essential to them getting a Progressive Senate majority. And
we were all expecting that after that election, Wa would
kind of go a bit back towards normality, you know,
that Labour would lose some support there. Labour's clearly put
a lot of effort into maintaining its position in Western
Australia over the last three years. Right now though they're
(09:23):
not losing any ground in Western Australia. It was the
best result last election, and if the polls were right,
it would be their best result this election too.
Speaker 1 (09:30):
And in Queensland we had the so called Green slide
at the last election with three Greens MPs being elected.
How are those seats looking.
Speaker 2 (09:39):
Yeah, so those three inner city Green seats. They're all
really complicated because they're not clean two horse races. They're
three candidate contests where, particularly in Brisbane and Griffith, the
Greens both need to stay ahead of Labor in the
preference count and then get enough preferences to beat the
Liberal National Party.
Speaker 1 (09:59):
Right way it's.
Speaker 2 (10:00):
Looking is they're looking pretty good in Griffith where they
are clearly the more popular Progressive party, and then they
are clearly beating the l and P. They're looking Okaine Ryan,
where Labour is a lot weaker and it's more of
a straight Greens versus Liberal contest. Brisbane's a bit trickier
because Labour's support is a bit resurgent in Brisbane, and
there's a chance that in Brisbane, even if the Greens
(10:22):
vote stays the same, if there's a swing from the
Liberals to Labor, Labour might overtake the Greens and the
Greens might get knocked out. Queensland more generally, was a
state where Labor really didn't get any luck at the
last election. They didn't contribute at all towards Labour winning government.
Labor did get a swing towards them across the state,
but they didn't gain a single seat. Indeed, they lost
(10:42):
one in the seat of Griffith. Right now, the polls
do say that Labour might pick up a little bit
of extra support in Queensland. So there are a bunch
of Coalish and marginals in Queensland that you know. Last
time Labour one government in two thousand and seven, a
lot of these seats flipped to Labor, but Labour didn't
win any of them into two and I reckon they
have a chance of winning a couple.
Speaker 1 (11:03):
Labor has been persistently polling better than the Coalition throughout
the campaign. Is there now a real chance that the
government could be returned with a majority in the Parliament.
Speaker 2 (11:12):
Yeah, we've been seeing over the last few weeks Labour's
polls have really been improving quite quickly, and we're now
at a point where I think we have to consider
the possibility that even though it's looked like we're going
to get a hung parliament, and even though the large
size of the crossbench increases those chances, it is possible Labor,
like they did in twenty twenty two, could still scrape
across the line and get a majority in their own right.
(11:32):
So it's a good reminder that even though a lot
of people now don't vote for Labor and the Coalition,
they vote for minor parties and independents in the vast
majority of seats. In the end, it's still a Labor
versus coalition contest, and most seats in Parliament are still
Labor or Coalition. But I think minority governments and hung
parliaments are going to become more common and the major
(11:54):
parties are going to have to work out how they
deal with that. Clearly, they're not comfortable with it. They'd
rather it didn't happen that way, and they would be
much more comfortable getting a majority in their own right,
but they're going to have to find ways to negotiate.
You know, Labor clearly isn't very comfortable with its relationship
with the Greens, but an increasingly large proportion of those
people who give Labor a preference are not actually Labor voters.
(12:17):
You know, Labor got about fifty two percent of the
two party preferred vote the last election, but their primary
vote was less than thirty three percent, So almost one
in five people in the country now preference Labor but
didn't vote for Labor as their number one vote, and
so I think that's an increasingly large share of Labour's
base that are going to expect that the party can
do something other than just take its bat and ball
(12:39):
and go home if they find themselves in the Home Parliament.
Speaker 1 (12:44):
Ben, thank you so much for your time. Thanks for
having me. Also in the news. An estimated two hundred
(13:12):
thousand people have attendants of Peter Square in the Vaikan
for the funeral mass of Pope Francis. US President Donald
Trump and Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelenski were both president at
the funeral, the first time the two men have been
in the same place since they're now infamous, meeting in
the Oval Office in March. Trump and Zelenski used the
funeral as an opportunity to take part in private discussions
(13:34):
about a potential deal between Russia and Ukraine that could
lead to a ceasefire and a Dutton leg government would
make electric vehicle drivers pay more for using roads, according
to the coalition's transport spokesperson, Bridget Mackenzie. Senator Mackenzie said
it was an issue of equity, given other motorists pay
for road maintenance through the fuel excise. In an interview
(13:57):
on Insiders, Senator Mackenzie floated the idea, but would not
say how ev drivers would be made to pay, only
insisting it would not be a tax. I'm Daniel James.
This is seven am. See you tomorrow.
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