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March 3, 2025 15 mins

When Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met with US President Donald Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance in the Oval Office on Friday, they were there to sign a deal that would give the US access to a significant share of Ukraine’s rare earth minerals.

Instead, Trump and Vance berated and taunted Zelensky, before asking him to leave.

The deal remained unsigned, and relations between the two countries are now in tatters, with military and aid support for Ukraine from the Trump administration in doubt.

Meanwhile, Russian officials are working on their own set of deals with Trump. 

Today, associate professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University David Szakonyi, on what Vladimir Putin is offering Trump, and the figures behind the Russian deal.

 

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Guest: Associate professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University David Szakonyi

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Speaker 1 (00:00):
But President, mister President, with respect, I think it's disrespectful
for you to come into the Oval Office to try
to litigate this in front of the American media right now.

Speaker 2 (00:08):
So I think we should start with the meeting in
the Oval Office between Zelenski, Trump and Vance. As you
were watching it, I mean, tell me what you were seeing.

Speaker 3 (00:18):
I think there's a couple of different thoughts that jumped
in my head.

Speaker 1 (00:21):
One was the lack of respect for a foreign leader
coming to the Oval Office, especially one that has sacrificed
so much to save his country from an invasion.

Speaker 2 (00:33):
David Sconi is a political scientist and his specialty is
money in politics. So while much of the world was
stunned by Donald Trump and JD. Vance's treatment of Lord
mu Zelenski at their meeting in the Oval Office, David kind.

Speaker 3 (00:48):
Of saw it coming. The variety's been on the wall
for weeks now.

Speaker 1 (00:52):
It may well be that the Trump administration decided they
weren't in a back Ukraine immediately upon taking office three
even months ago, and this meeting was just kind of
a cherry on the cake to set that process further
in motion. But it's this public declaration that relations between
the US and the Ukraine are the worst they've been
in years.

Speaker 3 (01:12):
Don't tell us what we're going to feel. We're trying
to solve a problem. Don't tell us what we're going
to feel.

Speaker 1 (01:16):
I'm not telling you because you're in no position to
dictate that.

Speaker 4 (01:21):
You're in no position to dictate what we're going to feel.

Speaker 3 (01:25):
We're going to feel very good. We're going to feel
very good and very strong.

Speaker 2 (01:31):
Before the meeting went off the rails. Before Zelenski was
asked to leave, the leaders had been negotiating a deal
that would give the US access to a significant share
of Ukraine's rare earth minerals. But Russia has also been
working on their own set of deals with Trump, and
what they're angling for could be catastrophic for Ukraine. From

(01:53):
Schwartz Media, I'm Ruby Jones. This is seven am today.
Associate Professor of Political science and International Affairs at George
Washington University David Seconi on the new Russia US relationship
and Trump's corporate diplomacy. It's Tuesday, March four. David, the

(02:18):
original purpose of this catastrophic meeting at the Oval Office
was to sign a deal where the US would get
access to Ukrainian rare earth minerals that did not happen,
And now there is this big question mark over what
support the US will supply to Ukraine at all going forward.
So what does that mean for Ukraine?

Speaker 1 (02:38):
A really difficult time going forward. Ukraine has depended on
the US military and financial assistance since February twenty twenty two,
and there's not already substitute for everything that we've provided
so billions of dollars to fund its government, key technical
assistance to repair and rebuild parts of its economy and
infrastructure that Russia keeps destroying. And also the intelligence support

(03:02):
that the US appears to have been supplying and to
a very large extent since February twenty twenty two, helping
identify Russian targets to the best of our knowledge, passing
on critical knowledge about how the battlefield is unfolding that
Ukraine's been able to deploy on the ground. We don't
know how much of that is in jeopardy, but conceivably,

(03:24):
after Friday's meeting, the US could cut off every single
type of assistance across all these different.

Speaker 3 (03:28):
Dimensions going forward.

Speaker 1 (03:30):
If I was your gran I would be worried and
concerned about how it can continue to push back against
the Russian military machine with basically half of the supporter,
even less than that enjoyed in the last three years.

Speaker 2 (03:43):
Well, let's talk a little more about alternate back is.
Then Zelenski went straight to the UK to meet the
Prime Minister their Kirstama after the meeting in the Oval Office,
and this meeting it went very differently, didn't it. So
can you tell me a bit about what came out
of it and what you think the state of that
alliance is at the moment.

Speaker 1 (04:01):
I think there's been more or less a united European
front since Friday's meeting, initially on social media, now in person,
signaling to Ukraine that Europe finally disagrees with the Trump
administration and is going to try to do everything in
its power to back Ukraine with what it needs.

Speaker 3 (04:18):
Rather than telling Ukraine what it should.

Speaker 4 (04:21):
Do, our starting point must be to put Ukraine in
the strongest possible position now so that they can negotiate
from a position of strength, and we are doubling down
in our support. Yesterday evening, the UK signed a two
point two billion pound loan to provide more military aid

(04:43):
to Ukraine, backed not by the British taxpayer, but by
the profits from frozen Russian assets.

Speaker 1 (04:51):
Now, Europe doesn't have the scale of military production to
make up for the US abandoning Ukraine, and Europe has
its own economic difficulties, and there's a lot of debate
or whether it can afford to invest so much of
its limited resources or borrow more than it already has,
in order to both equip itself in the event that

(05:12):
NATO ceases to be this backstop for Europe and supply
Ukraine with what the United States have been providing, and
potentially even more if it wants to change the course
of the conflict.

Speaker 2 (05:23):
And Trump has been complaining for some time that he
doesn't want the US to foot the bill for Ukraine's security.
So in staging this disastrous meeting with Ukraine and then
having Europe signal that it might come to the rescue,
did Trump ultimately get what he wanted here?

Speaker 1 (05:42):
I think Trump wants America to lead the world in
some respect, even if he doesn't want US to pay
for it anymore. And the idea of all the European
leaders coming together to fund their own version of foreign policy,
the potentially challenge of the United States may weaken Trump's
ability to project power that he's promised the US voters,

(06:03):
So I wouldn't say he's sitting extremely pretty right now.

Speaker 3 (06:08):
After Friday, there's been I think a lot.

Speaker 1 (06:10):
More criticism in the media than I expected, even from
some conservative sources, about how he advanced handled the meeting.
Putin is extremely unpopular in the United States, and Zelenski
has over a majority of support according to the best
survey opinion polls that we have in this country. So
he's tacked out a hardline decision that is in conflict

(06:32):
with what most of the American public wants. So I
think it's too soon to tell.

Speaker 2 (06:39):
Coming up after the break, what Russia is promising Trump.

Speaker 5 (06:48):
Hi, I'm Daniel James. Seven I AM tell stories that
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(07:11):
dot com slash support. Thanks for listening and supporting our work.

Speaker 2 (07:18):
David, there was a meeting between Russian and US officials
in Saudi Arabia just over a week ago. Now, tell
me about that meeting and how it compares to what
we saw at the Oval Office.

Speaker 1 (07:30):
This was a pretty hastily convened meeting by the societies
to bring together a handful of high ranking officials on
the Russian and the US side to start a conversation
about what a normalization of relations between US and Russia
would look like, trying to put US Russia relations on
a new footing. And both sides told each other what

(07:53):
they wanted to hear, and therefore it seemed like there
was optimism coming out of the meeting that they'd be
able to hash something out, even though there's so much
to be done in so many different issues that are unresolved.

Speaker 2 (08:04):
Right, Can you tell me about the key officials who
were at those talks.

Speaker 1 (08:08):
So on the Russian side, they have the long time
Foreign Minister Sergey Lvorov, who's been at this for decades
now and extremely experienced, alongside the former Ambassador to the
United States Yshkov, who's getting on in his years but
has a lot of experience deal with the Americans. But
I think the surprise to everybody was Caerier Dmitriev, who's

(08:29):
severally younger than the other two from the Russian delegation.
He has an MBA from Harvard Business School. He worked
at Goldman Sachs. He's a deal maker, he's a business person,
and he could speak the language both corporate and just linguistically,
just English, and he's been in these situations before. I
think they're putting a lot of faith that he's going
to be able to work some magic with Trump.

Speaker 3 (08:50):
And his emissaries.

Speaker 2 (08:52):
And when you say the corporate or the business perspective,
what is that perspective on these talks.

Speaker 1 (08:58):
It's something that I think a lot of tes have internalized,
you know, since the election of November, is what do
we do with Trump? Two point zero? How do we
find a common language with Trump? And many countries, including Russia,
have centered on this. Well, flattery, of course works, but
so does speaking the language of business. So does offering
Trump some type of business deal where America purportedly benefits financially. Right,

(09:26):
Trump wants seems to want to demonstrate to American voters
that he's making America wealthier, more prosperous. So Russia had
trotted out several proposals that really pull.

Speaker 3 (09:38):
On this string with Trump.

Speaker 1 (09:39):
Right, these are areas of joint Russian and American investment
in rare earth minerals.

Speaker 3 (09:45):
Right.

Speaker 1 (09:45):
The Ukrainians offered something months ago the background of this
deal last week, and the Russians offered a counter proposals saying,
we have rare earth minerals.

Speaker 3 (09:54):
Too, you should come and help develop them and we'll
cut you in on the deal.

Speaker 1 (09:58):
And something a little bit more nebulous and vague, but
potentially just as large as the other two, which is
the development of the Arctic. We all heard Trump desiring
to annex Greenland. The Arctic is massive. It supposedly has vast.

Speaker 3 (10:12):
Stores of rare earth minerals and even fossil.

Speaker 1 (10:14):
Fuels, and a lot of other implications for economic development.
And Russia has been competing ferociously for access to the
Arctic over the last couple decades with the United States.
They saw an opportunity to maybe make nice by having
some talks about how to split the Arctic and make
it so that Trump could come home with some win,

(10:35):
some victory. But it just goes against decades of diplomatic strategy, So.

Speaker 2 (10:42):
You can't necessarily see what the long term goal of
the Trump administration is when it comes to this conflict.

Speaker 1 (10:49):
I think our best guess is that he's okay with
a multipolar world where Russia has taken seriously treated equitably
in a way that it's wanted to for decades, and
the US is fine with that, and Russia is seen
as a partner rather than an adversary. And Trump can
go back and say that he brought peace to different

(11:12):
parts of the world through negotiation, even if there were
significance concessions made. But I think any business with Russia
right now just does not have any sort of guarantee,
especially what we've seen the last three years in terms
of nationalization and property rights violations and just so very
aggressive putin government towards businesses of all types.

Speaker 2 (11:35):
And you talked about the way that Russia has reopened
business negotiations with the US on these different fronts, But
can you just tell me what was said about what
Russia wants when it comes to Ukraine, what terms they
would like to see.

Speaker 1 (11:49):
Well, they very clearly don't want Ukraine to be ever
invited in too NATO, and any type of agreement that
spells that out in writing, whether it's twenty years or
fifty years is going to be extremely welcome in Moscow.
They also want recognition for the territories that they annexed
in twenty fourteen, that is Crimea, as well as those
that they've claimed since twenty twenty two, the four regions

(12:11):
that they illegitimately annexed in September twenty twenty two. So
those are think are its main goals. But Putin doesn't
necessarily want peace, right, he doesn't want the fighting to
stop because I think he feels he has the upper
hand that Russia can withstand another year or more of
this conflict, can mobilize more troops if it needs to,

(12:33):
and I expect their wishless to expand if their campaign
picks up any speed.

Speaker 2 (12:41):
And it does sound like from what you're saying, that
Russia in approaching negotiations in the way that it has,
they understand that for Trump, any peace deal is a
business deal as well, that this is a transaction. Does
it seem to you that that approach is working.

Speaker 3 (12:59):
I think so.

Speaker 1 (13:00):
So we need to think of the Trump approach as
kind of like corporate diplomacy. Right, this is a bunch
of business people that are trotting around the world asking
what can you do for us and.

Speaker 3 (13:14):
What can we give you in return?

Speaker 1 (13:16):
And let's put some numbers to those conversations, rather than
thinking about what does a new security architecture look like?
Or what do troop deployments? How should they be organized?
Or nuclear weapons. I think all of those are going
to take second priority to money. The Russians understand this,
and that's why they've floated these various investment proposals because

(13:37):
they think, and I think they're probably correct, that Trump
cares more about the finances than he does about other
ideological goals at this stage.

Speaker 2 (13:49):
David, thank you so much for your time.

Speaker 3 (13:51):
You're very welcome.

Speaker 2 (14:05):
Also in the news today, lawyers for former military lawyer
David McBride have argued their client's prison sentence failed to
take into account that he was acting quote bravely and
selflessly in an attempt to write what he thought was
a serious wrong. McBride is appealing against both his conviction
and the severity of his sentence in the Act Court
of Appeal after he was sentenced to five years and

(14:27):
eight months for releasing documents to the ABC which detailed
war crimes in Afghanistan and Mikey Madison has won Best
Actress at the ninety seventh Academy Awards for her role
as a sex worker who marries the son of a
Russian oligarch in the film Anora. Meanwhile, Adrian Brody won
Best Actor for his role in The Brutalist, and Shawn
Baker's Anora took home both Best Picture and Best Director.

(14:50):
I'm Ruby Jones. This is seven AM. Thanks for listening.

Speaker 4 (15:00):
It's all on
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