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June 19, 2025 15 mins

At the G7 summit in Canada, Anthony Albanese had prepared carefully for a meeting with Donald Trump – even reaching out to Trump’s golfing buddy, Greg Norman.

But just before they were due to meet, the US president walked out of the summit and flew home to address the conflict between Israel and Iran.

In some quarters, the snub has been portrayed as a personal slight against Albanese. Whatever Trump’s reasons, it highlights just how strained Australia’s relationship with its most important ally has become.

Today, columnist to The Saturday Paper, Paul Bongiorno, on the fallout from the failed meeting – and what it reveals about power, sovereignty and AUKUS.

 

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Guest: Contributor to The Saturday Paper, Paul Bongiorno.

Photo: The White House

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Episode Transcript

Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
From Schwartz Media. I'm Daniel James. This is seven AM
at the g seventh summit in Canada. Anthony Alberonizi had
prepared carefully for a meeting with Donald Trump, even reaching
out to Trump's golfing buddy Greg Norman, but just before
they were due to meet, Trump walked out of the

(00:21):
summit and flew home. In some quarters, the snub has
been betrayed as a personal slight but what it does
highlight is how fragile Australia's relationship with its most important
ally has become today. It contributed to the Saturday paper
Paul bon Jorno on the fallout from the failed meeting
and what it reveals about power, sovereignty and orcus. It's Friday,

(00:48):
June twenty.

Speaker 2 (00:54):
There's no getting round it. This is a complete humiliation
for Albanasy. So Trump has had multiple multiple meetings with
Starma and Karni, but he'd rather have another meeting with
them than have his first ever meeting with Alberanzi.

Speaker 1 (01:07):
Paul, There's been a fair bit of commentary in the
media this week that Trump canceling his planned meeting with
Alberezi was an embarrassment for the Prime Minister. Do you
think that's fair commentary?

Speaker 3 (01:17):
Well, look, overall, we can't really claim that Alberanizi was
singled out by Trump and snubbed. That's just not what happened. However,
what is embarrassing I think for Albanesi is this.

Speaker 4 (01:30):
Okay, it's been a very productive day here at the
g seven.

Speaker 3 (01:34):
Literally minutes after he outlined that he would be taking
arguments to the President about tariff concessions.

Speaker 4 (01:43):
Will continue to point out that the United States enjoys
a trade surplus with Australia.

Speaker 3 (01:48):
That he would be arguing strongly for Orcus and for
the US to stick by the agreement and the supply
of the submarines.

Speaker 4 (01:56):
The advantage for the United States, of course, is getting
access to the upgrade and facilities that will be putting
in place at Henderson.

Speaker 3 (02:06):
Even revealed that mid spoken to Trump's golfing buddy Greg Norman,
but literally as Albanzi left that news conference up on
social media, the US Press Secretary Caroline Levitt posted that
Trump was leaving White House.

Speaker 1 (02:23):
Press Secretary Caroline Levitt made the announcement Monday evening, saying
President Trump is returning to Washington so that he can
attend to many important matters.

Speaker 3 (02:31):
He'd stay for the day, he'd have dinner with the
G seven leaders, and he was going back to the
White House to deal with matters arising in the Middle East.

Speaker 5 (02:41):
So it really is his extraordinary development. The main reason
after the Albanezi is here, Let's face it, The main
reason Army here and all the objournis are here is
because he was about to meet Donald Trump and now
it's off.

Speaker 3 (02:51):
And the other point too, is that some other very
important people also missed out on a meeting. Narendra Modi
from India, no lightweight, you'd think that Trump would want
to see him. Zelenski from Ukraine. But I think the
most interesting point is that the Mexican President, Claudia Sinbehm
she also missed out on a face to face meeting

(03:12):
that next day, but Trump called her and had a
half hour conversation with her on the phone, explaining things.
And I think this gave some ammunition to our opposition
in Australia to say, well, Albanize, he's not doing enough
to have a very important face to face meeting with Trump,
to begin a relationship with Trump that would be in

(03:34):
the Australian national interest.

Speaker 1 (03:37):
The promnist said it was fair enough that Trump had
to leave he was going to deal with the escalating
situation in the Middle East. So what do we know, Paul,
about Trump's approach to that unfolding crisis since the G seven.

Speaker 3 (03:50):
Well, what we've got all week is a series of
seemingly contradictory stands from the US President on how he's
dealing with the situation in the East. The White House
and Trump himself distanced themselves from Israel's preemptive attacks on Iran.
After all, they are more than problematic in terms of

(04:10):
international law. But there's no doubt that Trump supports Israel
in that move. Trump saw the attacks of Israel as
a response to Iran not being all that keen to
come to the table and negotiate. Now, the timeline doesn't
support that view. The timeline shows that Israel struck before

(04:32):
the meetings were due to be held, and then Trump
goes down to Washington and overnight on his truth social
raises the stakes for Iran, talking about only unconditional surrender
will do, which then raised the prospect that what part
would the US play in getting this unconditional surrender? Would

(04:55):
it join Israel militarily in taking out the regime. Now,
as late as Thursday, Trump was still toying with Iran's
minds on whether he would or whether he wouldn't assign
American military assets to this battle. There is apprehension that,

(05:16):
who knows, within a matter of days, we could see
a major escalation in the Middle East.

Speaker 1 (05:22):
So with all of that happening, it seems like the
next time the two leaders Albanezi and Trump are scheduled
to be in the same place won't be until September
for the UN General Assembly in New York. Is there
any chance that they could meet sooner than that.

Speaker 3 (05:36):
Well, yes there is. Now. The NATO Summit is in
the Netherlands next week and Trump is booked to make
an appearance there. Now. Alberanezi, when he met Mark Rutter,
the Secretary General of NATO in Canada, said that he
would send Richard Miles, the Deputy Prime Minister and Defense Minister,
to the Hague for that summit, But in his last

(05:59):
New conference in Canada, the Prime Minister hinted that he
was now considering going himself. The problem here is that
just as nobody knew whether Trump would turn up to Canada,
nobody knows if Trump's going to turn up to the Hague.
But there is some evidence cited by not only Susan Lee,

(06:22):
but even by Dave Shama, her colleague, who was a
former diplomat, that this sort of schmoozing of Trump does
pay dividends. And they point to Keir Starmer, the UK
PM who'd gone to Washington, had had several face to
face meetings with Trump, and on the sidelines of the
g seventh Summit, actually finalized a trade agreement between Britain

(06:46):
and the US which did contain some concessions on tariff's Now,
even though Albanezy failed to get a meeting with Trump
and he certainly therefore failed to get any guarantees on
tariff consents or on orcus, alban Easy took great consolation,
if I could put it that way, from a doorstop

(07:07):
that Trump did with Prime Minister Starmer. We all know
the great Prime Minister of the UK, and we just
signed a document. One of the journalists asked Starmer on
the Orcast submarine agreement, is it still proceeding.

Speaker 2 (07:22):
Yep, we're proceeding with that.

Speaker 3 (07:24):
It's a really important deal to both of this.

Speaker 2 (07:26):
I think the person that was doing a review. We
did the review when we came into government, so that
makes good sense to me.

Speaker 1 (07:31):
But it's a really important.

Speaker 3 (07:32):
We're very long time partners and allies and friends. Trump
jumped in and he said, we've become friends in a
short period of time. He's slightly more liberal than I am,
to put it slightly on the left. Some reason we're
in laugh we make it work. And then Trump said,
but for some reason we get along. Now that's the

(07:53):
position that clearly alban Ezy wants to get to. There
is no doubt that Albanesi distancing himself from Trump played
very well in our recent election. But I think that
we're now at a stage where domestic political points scoring
should take second place to Alberanzi as the Prime Minister

(08:15):
of Australia trying to get the best deal in the
national interest he can, even if it means taking a
deep breath and going and seeing Trump.

Speaker 1 (08:26):
Coming up after the break. Once Alberanzi takes a deep breath,
what he needs to say. So, Paul, let's talk about
Orcust through a bit. Britain has made its position quite
clear or where it stands on Orcust. Do we get
any better sense during the G seven about where Trump

(08:49):
in the United States is still committed to the agreement
at all.

Speaker 3 (08:53):
Well, it's interesting since the arrival of the Labor government
in Australia and they looked more closely at the ORC agreement,
they realize that there is a huge get out clause
for the Americans already. It's up to the President of
the United States and the Congress to agree to sell
these submarines to Australia, providing it's in America's strategic interest

(09:18):
to do so. And what we do know is America's
falling behind in keeping up building these nuclear submarines to
meet its own needs. But there is a new fly
in the ointment here. The review being done by Aldbridge Colby,
who's the Deputy Secretary of Defense in Washington, and Hugh White,

(09:40):
for example, our strategic one of our strategic experts in Australia.
He says, Look, Colby will find that, yes, there is
the get out clause there already, so they don't have
to renegotiate that. But Colby will also find that even
if America does sell a Virginia class submarines to US,
gives us to or sells US a couple, it will
own be on the assurance that Australia will give that

(10:03):
in any conflict between the United States and China, these
submarines will be at America's disposal. And that's the cruncher.
And that's where former Prime Minister Keating comes in and says,
this is putting Australia's sovereignty on the line. It is
Australia who must decide if we go to war or

(10:24):
not America.

Speaker 1 (10:26):
So Paula would seem fairly unlikely that the Albanesi government
would commit to going to war with our biggest training partner, China.
That seems pretty unlikely, doesn't it.

Speaker 3 (10:37):
Well, look it does, and former Prime Minister Keating in
a statement says China has no intention and no plans
or intentions to attack Australia or America. And Hugh White
makes the point that any conflict between China and America
over for example, Taiwan would inevitably lead to an almighty

(11:00):
showdown between these two nuclear armed superpowers and risk nuclear war.
And if for no other reason, that shows that the
likelihood of a war between America and China over Taiwan
is irrational. But the problem that we've got here is
that rationality and Donald Trump aren't exactly the warmest of bedfellows.

Speaker 1 (11:26):
And so Paul, for all the talk we've been hearing
from the Prime Minister about Australia maintaining our sovereignty and
appearing to offer some pushback towards the Trump administration recently,
do you get the sense that he's committed to keeping
America active in our region and keeping the security arrangement
with Orcus alive.

Speaker 3 (11:44):
Yeah, there's no doubt Daniel that Albanezi and Miles see.
But what's emerged in the last thirty years since Keating
was Prime Minister is a multi polar world in the
Asia Pacific, with China now able to rival America in
broad terms for influence. That China is a major economic

(12:07):
power as well as emerging if it hasn't already arrived
as a major strategic power, and as insurance for Australia.
If we can keep America committed and with the presence
in the Asia specific that is, if we can convince
the Trump administration not to go one hundred percent isolationist,

(12:29):
then America will act as a counterbalance to China. One
of the problems is, though America seems to think that
if it's going to be in the region, it has
to be the biggest dog, it has to be number one,
and we all have to toe the line. And there
is a view that America could use its diplomatic leverage

(12:50):
or try to coerce Australia to be less reliant on China.
This is where, if you like, our economic sovereignty comes in,
where we'd have to say to America, hang on, We're
not going to do anything to jeopardize our relationship with
basically the key to our own prosperity in the last

(13:10):
thirty or forty years, namely our economic relationship with China.
And this again is another hot point if you like that,
the Alberanese government necessarily has to juggle in the days, weeks,
and months ahead.

Speaker 1 (13:30):
Paul, thank you so much for your time.

Speaker 3 (13:32):
Thank you, Daniel, it's always good talking to you.

Speaker 1 (13:51):
Also, in the years today, Israel has launched a major
wave of air strikes in Iran, killing at least six
hundred and thirty nine people, including over two two hundred
and fifty civilians, according to human rights monitors. Tehran has
responded with missile fire. While it's supremely devowed to resist
Western pressure. Donald Trump met with top advisors but has
not confirmed whether the US will join the conflict, despite

(14:14):
reports he approved strike plans in advance. Meanwhile, one hundred
and forty Palace dinnings were killed in Gaza in the
past day, raising ongoing concerns over civilian tolls across the region,
and more than two thirds of Australian universities have dropped
in the latest QS Global rankings, with Melbourne and Sydney
both falling out of the top twenty. The slide is

(14:35):
being blamed on funding cuts, caps on international students and
growing competition from Asia, compounded by Trump era pressure on
research ties, with the US analysts said to wake up
call for a sector already under series Strain seven am
as a daily shave from Schwartz Media and the Saturday
Paper is made by Atticus Bastow, Shane Anderson, Chris Dangate,

(14:58):
Eric Jensen, Ruby j Oons, Sarah McPhee, Travis Evans, Zoltanfecho
and Me Daniel James. Our theme music is by Ned
Beckley and Josh Hogan of Envelope Portio. Thanks for listening,
See you next week.
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