2025 Wrap Up. Café Reality Check: Adjustment, Relentless Costs & What Comes Next, With Raihaan Esat

2025 was not a “business as usual” year for cafés. It was a year of adjustment.

 

In this final episode of Bean There, Done That for 2025, Phil Di Bella is joined by long-time collaborator and one of Australia’s top coffee minds, Raihaan Esat, General Manager of International Coffee Traders. Together, they unpack a relentless year for café owners: rising costs across the board, shifting consumer psychology, the comeback of instant coffee, and why knowing your numbers and your customers is now non-negotiable.

 

They dig into:

• Why 40–50% of a menu price is wages

• How automation helps (and where it ruins the café experience)

• The move from “customers” to “guests”

• Menu simplification, disposable income and ham & cheese croissants

• Government and council support that actually moved the needle

• Innovation from farm to cup and sustainable pricing for coffee farmers

 

Phil closes with a challenge: grab a pen and map out what December 2026 looks like for you, your café, your family and your community.

In this episode:

• 2025 in one word: “Adjustment”

  • Psychological load on café owners

  • Moving from “the game has changed” to “this IS the game now”

  • Looking ahead to 2026 as a year of recomposition

• Relentless costs & a new normal

  • Every major cost going up at once for the first time in decades

  • Wages at 40–50% of the menu price

  • 75% growth at Coffee Commune with flat profit: a real-world example

  • Why many product-based businesses have had to accept margin cuts

• Automation vs humans behind the bar

  • Super-automatic machines, milk systems and “out-automating” each other

  • The shift to using tech in the background to guarantee consistency

  • Why trying to remove the barista turns coffee into a commodity

  • “We don’t need to out-automate each other, we need to out-human each other.”

• Emotional engagement & the ‘guest’ mindset

  • Moving from “customers” to “guests” in language and behaviour

  • Red Bull, luxury brands and the power of emotional connection

  • First Name Fridays and Tasman’s guest experience in the café

• Knowing your numbers & your audience

  • P&L, cash flow and understanding demographic + geographic reality

  • Disposable income at record lows and what that means for menus

  • Back to basics: bacon & egg rolls, ham & cheese croissants, muffins

  • Upcoming market segmentation project from Coffee Commune

• Where people are actually drinking coffee now

  • Total coffee consumption up, in-café consumption per person down

  • At-home and office drinking on the rise

  • The quality and value of modern instant coffee

• Government, councils & collaboration that actually helps

  • New state government focus on small and medium business in Queensland

  • Moreton Bay and Gold Coast councils funding training for café owners

  • 18% uplift from council-backed Coffee Commune training programs

  • Collaboration between independent cafés to pool purchasing and cut costs

• From farm to cup: sustainability & paying farmers properly

  • Farmers returning to coffee as prices become sustainable again

  • Direct relationships and paying equitably at origin

  • Why prices needed to rise gradually, and what happened when they didn’t

• Community, awards & impact

  • Coffee Commune as a place of collaboration, not “another coffee brand”

  • 1,700+ members, 1,200 cafés and 75% growth across the community

  • ICT coffees and roasters winning national and global awards

  • Phil representing hospitality around the 2032 Brisbane Games table<