The Great AI Jobs Debate

Donna and Yakov discuss the impact of AI on employment trends, highlighting concerns about job displacement, particularly among young workers. Research offers conflicting findings, with one study noting minor differences in unemployment rates and another reporting significant declines for young workers in AI-exposed roles. Emphasizing adaptability, the speakers urge a balanced approach to workforce development, focusing on human skills and on-the-job training integrated with AI tools. They advocate for cautious planning, avoiding overhauls based on preliminary data, while fostering resilient learning cultures to navigate technological changes. #AI, #jobs, #employment, #workforcedevelopment, #adaptability, #youngworkers, #technology

Episode Transcript

(00:00):
Welcome to Bite-Sized L&D, your quick no-nonsense update on the latest in workplace learning.

(00:10):
Today, we're diving into the buzz around AI's impact on jobs and uncovering strategies
for developing skills that complement technology in this evolving landscape.
All right, let's get straight into it.
All right, everybody. Welcome back to another episode of Bite-Sized L&D.
I'm Donna, and as always, we're here to break down the big trends that are shaping learning and development.

(00:36):
Today, we're diving into something that's been keeping a lot of us up at night lately.
Hey, everyone, Yakov here.
And yeah, Donna, you're talking about the elephant in the room, aren't you?
The whole is AI coming for our jobs?
Conversation that seems to pop up in every workplace discussion these days.
Exactly. And you know what's fascinating?

(00:57):
We might be stuck in this anxiety loop forever.
Think about it. If AI really does start taking jobs on a massive scale,
well, then we'll know for sure. But if it doesn't...
Right. Then we'll just have people pointing at every little employment hiccup saying,
see, this is it. This is where it all begins.
It's like we're doomed to eternal job anxiety.

(01:20):
That's actually kind of a terrifying thought when you put it that way.
But here's what's really interesting.
There's been this huge focus lately on recent college graduates
and whether they're the canaries in the coal mine for AI job displacement.
Oh, I've been following this.
There was all this buzz about new grads having trouble finding jobs.
And immediately, people were like, it's happening.

(01:44):
AI is starting to replace entry-level workers.
But then we got some research that basically said, hold up, not so fast.
One study looked at different ways to measure which jobs are most exposed to AI
and found pretty much no detectable effect on employment trends.
Wait, really? So all that panic was for nothing?

(02:04):
Well, here's where it gets complicated.
They did find tiny differences in unemployment rates between AI-exposed and non-exposed workers.
We're talking like 0.2 to 0.3 percentage points.
So maybe there's something there, but it's really small.
That's barely a blip.
But I'm guessing there's more to this story.
Oh, you bet there is.

(02:26):
Almost immediately, another team of researchers came out with completely different findings.
They're saying there have been substantial declines in employment for workers aged 22 to 25
in AI-exposed jobs like software development and customer service.
Now that sounds more dramatic.
What kind of numbers are we talking about?
They found that young workers in AI-exposed occupations saw a 6% decline in employment

(02:51):
from late 2022 to July 2025,
while older workers in the same jobs actually saw a 6-9% increase.
Wait, hold on.
You're telling me that while 22-year-olds are struggling to find jobs as software developers,
companies are actively hiring 40-year-old software developers.
That's exactly what the data shows.

(03:13):
And honestly, that's where this gets a little fishy for me.
If AI is really making companies need fewer software engineers,
why would they stop hiring young ones but go on a hiring spree for middle-aged ones?
That does seem backwards.
I mean, if anything, you'd expect companies to be more cautious about hiring across the board in those roles.
Right?

(03:33):
Exactly.
And here's another red flag.
Wages haven't dropped at all, even for the most AI-exposed groups.
If demand for labor is really falling because of AI,
you'd expect to see both fewer jobs and lower pay.
So what could explain this pattern?
Is there some theory about why only young workers would be affected?
The idea floating around is that experience becomes a complement to AI,

(03:56):
while formal education,
which is basically all young workers have,
becomes a substitute.
So AI might be making on-the-job training way more valuable than a fresh degree.
That's actually really interesting from an L&D perspective.
If that's true, it means we need to completely rethink how we approach workforce development.

(04:17):
Doesn't it?
Absolutely.
It would mean that our traditional model of get educated, then get hired,
might be flipping to get hired,
then get trained with AI as a partner.
But that raises the classic question of who pays for all that training.
Right.
And that's always been the challenge with on-the-job training.
Companies don't want to invest in skills that workers could take to competitors.

(04:41):
But here's the thing.
Before we completely reorganize our training strategies,
we probably need to be more skeptical about these findings.
The researchers themselves admit they're using some pretty experimental measures of AI exposure.
What do you mean by experimental?
Well, one of their measures is based on how often people ask AI chatbots about particular topics.

(05:02):
Then they essentially ask the AI itself whether people are trying to replace themselves
or just get better at their jobs.
That's a lot of assumptions stacked on top of each other.
So we're asking AI to predict whether AI will replace us.
That seems like a potential conflict of interest.
Exactly.
And until these measures actually prove they can predict job displacement over time,

(05:24):
we should probably take them with a pretty big grain of salt.
So where does this leave us as L&D professionals?
How do we plan for something that might or might not be happening?
I think the key is to stay flexible and evidence-based.
Yes, we should be preparing our organizations for AI integration,
but we shouldn't panic and completely overhaul everything based on preliminary data that doesn't quite add up.

(05:47):
And maybe focus on what we know works,
helping people develop those human skills that complement technology,
regardless of what specific form that technology takes.
Exactly.
Critical thinking, emotional intelligence, complex problem solving, adaptability.
These are valuable whether AI takes over half the job market

(06:08):
or just makes everyone 20% more productive.
Plus, if the experience becomes more valuable theory is right,
we need to get really good at designing learning experiences that happen in the flow of work,
not just in traditional training settings.
That's a great point.
We might need to become experts at creating learning opportunities that blend human expertise,

(06:30):
AI tools, and real-world problem solving.
So the bottom line is that while the jury's still out on whether AI is about to cause mass unemployment,
it's definitely changing how work gets done.
And that means our job as learning professionals is more important than ever.
Absolutely.
We're the ones who help people navigate these transitions,

(06:52):
whether they're dramatic or gradual.
The uncertainty is uncomfortable, but it's also where we add the most value.
Well said.
So for our listeners, maybe the takeaway is stay informed about these trends,
but don't let the latest alarming headline drive your entire strategy.
Focus on building adaptive, resilient learning cultures that can handle whatever comes next.

(07:15):
Perfect advice.
And remember, in a world where the only constant is change,
the ability to keep learning and adapting is the ultimate job security.
Thanks for diving deep with us today, everyone.
This is definitely a conversation we'll be revisiting as more data comes in.
For sure.
Until next time, keep learning, keep questioning, and keep helping your organizations grow.

(07:38):
This is Dana.
And Jakov, signing off from Bite-sized L&D.
Catch you on the next episode.
That's it for today's episode, where we delved into the impact of AI on jobs,
especially for recent graduates.
Highlighting the value of experience in complementing technology

(08:00):
and the critical role of learning professionals.
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so they can also stay updated on the latest news and gain powerful insights.
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