March 12, 2025 • 14 mins
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In this episode, Tom & Brandon discuss the Bank of Canada announcement for March.
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Episode Transcript
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(00:00):
.9Well, the bank of Canada just made it seventh consecutive rate cut this morning for another 0.
25%.
.891769617So what's it all mean? Well, in this video, we're going to break everything down for you, including what this may mean to the Canadian housing market, how this impacts you and what might be next for Canada and its economy. 4 00:00:15,286.891769617 --> 00:00:23,946.892769617 So if you're new to the show, my name's Tom Moffitt, and I'm joined by my cohost, Brandon Love, we're both top producing mortgage brokers here in Canada, and we love to simplify real estate for you. 5 00:00:24,261.892769617 --> 00:00:29,341.892769617 While also helping you achieve financial freedom and a broken blueprint that exists here in Canada today. 6 00:00:29,841.892769617 --> 00:00:34,141.892769617 So news of the rate cut today did not come as a surprise for anyone. 7 00:00:34,371.892769617 --> 00:00:41,856.892769617 Uh, industry experts, economists, and widespread market speculators were actually Thinking we might see a jumbo cut today. 8 00:00:42,236.892769617 --> 00:00:43,326.792769617 So a reduction of 0. 9 00:00:43,326.892769617 --> 00:00:46,766.892769617 25 was a pretty tepid response from the bank of Canada. 10 00:00:47,66.892769617 --> 00:00:47,316.892769617 Yeah. 11 00:00:47,316.892769617 --> 00:00:52,106.892769617 And it, it's funny because even three weeks ago it was the complete opposite. 12 00:00:52,136.892769617 --> 00:00:54,116.892769617 30 percent of economists were stating that. 13 00:00:54,501.892769617 --> 00:00:57,251.892769617 They probably aren't expecting a cut whatsoever. 14 00:00:57,251.892769617 --> 00:01:02,391.892769617 It's just, it's funny how this year it's been literally day to day things evolve and change. 15 00:01:02,391.892769617 --> 00:01:08,651.891769617 So you, uh, as much as people like to speculate of what's coming next to like, we really don't know because anything could change. 16 00:01:08,669.712018141 --> 00:01:09,159.712018141 For sure. 17 00:01:09,169.712018141 --> 00:01:11,19.712018141 We always say there's no crystal ball. 18 00:01:11,39.712018141 --> 00:01:13,709.711018141 And this year is a great example of that. 19 00:01:14,259.712018141 --> 00:01:19,609.711518141 You want to plan for your long term strategy and think about it in terms of like a football game. 20 00:01:19,609.711518141 --> 00:01:19,869.711018141 Okay. 21 00:01:19,869.712018141 --> 00:01:24,659.712018141 If you have a bad first quarter, you don't change up all the entire lineup. 22 00:01:24,679.712018141 --> 00:01:28,649.712018141 You might make some subtle tweaks, but you're not throwing the baby out with the bathwater. 23 00:01:28,659.712018141 --> 00:01:31,259.712018141 That's the same thing when it comes to your mortgage. 24 00:01:31,369.712018141 --> 00:01:31,719.712018141 So. 25 00:01:31,944.712018141 --> 00:01:42,934.71201814 Stick to a strategy that you can plan for long term, but recognize that there are periods like this and there are political leaders and tensions and things like that that do add to volatility in certain scenarios. 26 00:01:43,934.71201814 --> 00:01:47,334.71101814 Okay, so let's jump into the reasons for the cut. 27 00:01:47,884.71201814 --> 00:01:55,894.71201814 Despite stronger than expected growth, the cut addresses uncertainty from trade tensions and it aims to stabilize the Canadian economy. 28 00:01:56,364.71201814 --> 00:02:03,104.61301814 Really we are going into 2025 with an outlook that Well, once revisited, GDP grew 2. 29 00:02:03,104.71301814 --> 00:02:06,144.71301814 6 percent in Q4 of 2024. 30 00:02:06,494.71301814 --> 00:02:09,194.61301814 This was revised up from previously reported 2. 31 00:02:09,194.71301814 --> 00:02:11,434.71301814 2 percent in Q3. 32 00:02:12,14.71301814 --> 00:02:15,494.71301814 Now, this growth was bolstered by past rate cuts. 33 00:02:15,504.71201814 --> 00:02:23,684.71301814 So we do have to be a little bit cautious about that and realize that it is expected to slow down in Q1 2025 due to trade conflicts. 34 00:02:24,304.71301814 --> 00:02:26,684.71301814 So going forward to this, we. 35 00:02:27,324.71301814 --> 00:02:36,624.71301814 We entered 2025 in solid condition, okay, GDP growth and inflation were near that 2 percent target, but trade tensions and U. 36 00:02:36,624.71301814 --> 00:02:36,804.71301814 S. 37 00:02:36,814.71301814 --> 00:02:41,764.71201814 tariffs are expected to slow economic activity and increase inflationary pressures. 38 00:02:41,784.71301814 --> 00:02:46,494.71301814 So like we said, it is volatile because These tariffs day to day things change. 39 00:02:46,774.71301814 --> 00:02:49,984.71301814 So a lot ebbs and flows on what happens there. 40 00:02:49,984.71301814 --> 00:02:51,644.71301814 And then the market reaction to that. 41 00:02:52,624.71301814 --> 00:03:00,309.71301814 So let's dive into how this actually impacts you, because I don't know about you, but when I read about tariffs, sometimes I'm like, Okay. 42 00:03:00,309.71301814 --> 00:03:11,674.71301814 How does this actually apply to my day to day life? And for every Canadian, this is going to be a little bit different based on the industry you're in, but broad strokes, there are impacts of the rate cuts today that do apply to Yeah. 43 00:03:11,674.71301814 --> 00:03:18,614.71301814 So the media has a really tough time in, in really simplifying and in a digestible form for consumers. 44 00:03:18,944.71301814 --> 00:03:23,874.71301814 They always talk about the overnight lending rate and a lot of consumers, people, the general public. 45 00:03:24,249.71301814 --> 00:03:37,379.71201814 Think that they're referring to the actual interest rate the overnight lending rate is really just a fancy way of saying like, Hey, this is what the bar is set by the bank of Canada and the banks will have their own prime rate that's set. 46 00:03:37,379.71301814 --> 00:03:41,849.71201814 So when it comes to variable rate mortgages, they are always dictated by the prime rate. 47 00:03:42,79.71201814 --> 00:03:43,139.71201814 So for example, today. 48 00:03:43,739.71301814 --> 00:03:47,459.71301814 Banks will most likely all lower their prime rate to 4. 49 00:03:47,879.71301814 --> 00:03:47,899.71301814 95%. 50 00:03:48,139.71301814 --> 00:03:56,789.71301814 Now, some banks have their own prime rate, but what they'll give you from a variable rate perspective is either a discount or a surplus on prime. 51 00:03:56,909.71301814 --> 00:03:59,649.71201814 So in today's world, we're seeing discounts off of prime. 52 00:03:59,899.71201814 --> 00:04:02,909.71301814 So you might be looking at a prime minus 0. 53 00:04:02,909.81301814 --> 00:04:06,499.71301814 4 to prime minus 1 percent to give you some examples there. 54 00:04:06,499.71301814 --> 00:04:08,589.71301814 So that's the variable rate mortgage. 55 00:04:08,589.71301814 --> 00:04:10,409.71301814 If you have a variable already. 56 00:04:10,634.71301814 --> 00:04:12,814.71301814 There's two different kinds of variable rates. 57 00:04:12,834.71301814 --> 00:04:16,294.71301814 So you have the static variable, you have an adjustable rate mortgage. 58 00:04:16,384.71301814 --> 00:04:20,164.71201814 So the differences between two are how they sound. 59 00:04:20,264.71301814 --> 00:04:24,724.71301814 A static variable is the payment stays the same throughout the entirety of the term. 60 00:04:25,64.71301814 --> 00:04:28,584.71401814 It does not fluctuate whether prime goes up or down. 61 00:04:28,614.71301814 --> 00:04:32,584.71201814 The payment stays the same, but the net rate on the backend does change. 62 00:04:32,824.71201814 --> 00:04:36,254.71301814 So if we are in a environment where rates. 63 00:04:36,669.71301814 --> 00:04:42,429.71301814 Uh, decrease, your net effective rate will go lower and you're also paying more principal towards the mortgage. 64 00:04:42,619.71301814 --> 00:04:44,799.71301814 When you have a static variable rate mortgage. 65 00:04:45,69.71301814 --> 00:04:47,269.71301814 Now an adjustable rate is how it sounds. 66 00:04:47,460.96264314 --> 00:04:49,979.71301814 It adjusts with the prime going up and down. 67 00:04:50,209.71301814 --> 00:04:51,459.71201814 So your payment will fluctuate. 68 00:04:51,459.71201814 --> 00:04:59,139.71301814 So if you do have an ARM adjustable rate mortgage, your payment will change by next payment, uh, period, which is next month. 69 00:04:59,199.71301814 --> 00:05:02,49.71301814 So, um, those are the main differences between the two. 70 00:05:02,49.71301814 --> 00:05:03,299.71301814 And it's really important that. 71 00:05:03,694.71301814 --> 00:05:18,704.71201814 We touch on fixed rates as well, because going back to my main point of how the media has a really hard time in simplifying it and digesting it for consumers is a lot of people think that the bank of Canada sets fixed rates where that really isn't the case. 72 00:05:19,199.71301814 --> 00:05:30,699.71201814 Fixed rates are taught or tied to the bond market, which does have a direct influence to what the bank of Canada does, but it doesn't necessarily say, Hey, prime rate is going down 0. 73 00:05:30,699.81201814 --> 00:05:30,759.61301814 25%. 74 00:05:30,759.71301814 --> 00:05:32,199.61301814 The bank of Canada has lowered it 0. 75 00:05:32,199.71301814 --> 00:05:33,269.71301814 25 percent today. 76 00:05:33,599.71301814 --> 00:05:35,609.61301814 Then that means fixed rates are going down 0. 77 00:05:35,609.71301814 --> 00:05:36,469.71301814 25%. 78 00:05:36,489.71201814 --> 00:05:37,869.71301814 That's, that's not how it works. 79 00:05:38,29.71301814 --> 00:05:40,509.71301814 But, uh, fixed rates are literally fluctuating. 80 00:05:40,819.71301814 --> 00:05:44,59.71301814 It seems like on a day to day basis here with, uh, with lenders. 81 00:05:44,65.98059184 --> 00:05:44,535.97959184 for sure. 82 00:05:44,545.97959184 --> 00:05:48,535.98059184 And the lenders do have an opportunity to really tweak that pricing. 83 00:05:48,535.98059184 --> 00:05:56,95.97959184 So at certain points, they might look at the broader economy and say, Hey, we want to add a ton of three year fixed rate mortgages to our book. 84 00:05:56,865.97959184 --> 00:05:59,965.98059184 So they'll really discount the three year fix and the five year fix is worse. 85 00:05:59,975.98059184 --> 00:06:01,595.97959184 At other times, it's the inverse of that. 86 00:06:01,975.98059184 --> 00:06:05,255.98059184 So it's really day to day, like we said, very volatile market. 87 00:06:05,475.98059184 --> 00:06:12,525.98059184 But that is partially based off the bond market, but I'm partially based off the lenders and how they want to mitigate risk within their book. 88 00:06:12,575.98059184 --> 00:06:12,815.98059184 Yeah. 89 00:06:12,815.98059184 --> 00:06:16,615.98059184 And to give you an example, I mean, we're looking at, what was it? Monday or Tuesday. 90 00:06:17,40.98059184 --> 00:06:23,570.98059184 We had a good majority of the lenders, let's call it around 70 percent of lenders adjusting their, their fixed rates, uh, lowering them. 91 00:06:23,840.98059184 --> 00:06:28,110.98059184 And that was before the bank of Canada announcing the, the, the lowering of rates today. 92 00:06:28,110.98059184 --> 00:06:30,840.98059184 So again, there are two separate things there. 93 00:06:31,60.98059184 --> 00:06:35,730.98059184 It's really important to, to know the differences there and to touch on line of credits. 94 00:06:35,790.98059184 --> 00:06:38,70.98059184 Your rate will change effectively today. 95 00:06:38,415.98059184 --> 00:06:40,545.98059184 Because the interest is compounded daily. 96 00:06:40,715.98059184 --> 00:06:46,355.98059184 So if you have a home equity line of credit, or you have an unsecured line of credit, you will see that change effectively today. 97 00:06:47,355.98059184 --> 00:07:03,895.97959184 And if you have a home equity line of credit, hit the subscribe button because we are going to be sharing strategies in future videos of how you can use that home equity line of credit to reduce your overall mortgage rate and additional strategies on how to use it as a tool to make your mortgage tax deductible. 98 00:07:04,19.32359184 --> 00:07:13,895.9902585 What do you think is is coming next down the pipe for us and the rest of the canadian economy? so we will always say this over and over again, that there is no crystal ball on. 99 00:07:14,165.9902585 --> 00:07:15,95.9902585 How this works out. 100 00:07:15,395.9902585 --> 00:07:27,705.9892585 We'll say that's that we don't have to eat our shorts when rates go the other way, but also because we can't control the tantrums of the orange man in the States or of whatever comes next with Canadian leadership. 101 00:07:27,705.9892585 --> 00:07:32,725.9892585 So there's a lot of variables that play into this and, you know, just the global market as a whole. 102 00:07:32,725.9892585 --> 00:07:50,70.9902585 So no crystal ball, but all indicators do point towards future rate Yeah, and one thing I will say too is if you are whether you're shopping for a home You have a mortgage and you're staying put or you're renewing or refinancing whatever the case is Make sure whatever you're picking from a a rate perspective. 103 00:07:50,140.9902585 --> 00:08:03,965.9892585 You're comfortable with it as an example first time homebuyers We likely will always suggest that we, uh, that you consider the fixed rate in the environment environments like this, because it's a bit more stable, you know, what your payment's going to be throughout the term. 104 00:08:04,195.9902585 --> 00:08:06,215.9902585 Now there's some exceptions to that rule. 105 00:08:06,215.9902585 --> 00:08:20,875.9902585 If the first time home buyers are high income earners and the mortgage compared to what they make, uh, the payment that is, is a relatively low payment, then sure, go with the variable because, you know, over the history of time, variables have outperformed fixed rates with COVID as the exception. 106 00:08:21,165.9902585 --> 00:08:22,215.9902585 So just. 107 00:08:22,550.9902585 --> 00:08:29,580.9902585 Bottom line, whatever you are deciding on picking, uh, for your renewal, refi, or purchase, just make sure you're comfortable with it at the end of the day. 108 00:08:30,580.9902585 --> 00:08:39,900.9902585 Yeah, I think the key thing to remember here is everyone talks a lot about rates, what's going on in the government, all this different shit, but really we live in our monthly budget. 109 00:08:40,40.9902585 --> 00:08:41,890.9902585 So figure out what your monthly budget is. 110 00:08:41,910.9902585 --> 00:08:53,510.9897585 Do you have room to swing up? If you don't just do the fix, because you know, the, the benefit of capturing the swing down is nice, but you have to prepare for if it goes the other way. 111 00:08:53,510.9897585 --> 00:09:01,430.9902585 And you don't want to be giving up kids swimming lessons and taking your vacation because you bet on rates coming down. 112 00:09:01,480.9902585 --> 00:09:03,140.9902585 So always do what's comfortable. 113 00:09:03,210.9902585 --> 00:09:08,790.9902585 Remember that you live in that monthly payment and you don't need to be a speculator in these types of scenarios. 114 00:09:09,790.9902585 --> 00:09:20,760.9902585 So, jumping forward from here, what can we see from housing market reactions? And I'm just going to quickly touch on both the positive impact and negative impact of what's going on in Canada right now. 115 00:09:21,260.9902585 --> 00:09:28,195.8902585 So, positive impact of interest rate cuts, previous rate reductions have already boosted housing activity. 116 00:09:28,375.9902585 --> 00:09:35,135.9902585 So there are buyers coming back into the fray who are seeing the positive rate market, and they're less scared to jump into the water. 117 00:09:35,515.9902585 --> 00:09:39,665.9902585 So this leads to increase consumption and demand in the sector. 118 00:09:40,265.9892585 --> 00:09:45,5.9902585 Uh, the lower policy rate also brings down mortgage rates and. 119 00:09:45,335.9902585 --> 00:09:47,825.9902585 It increases and supports that housing demand. 120 00:09:47,835.9902585 --> 00:09:50,375.9902585 So really people say, like I said, they live in that monthly. 121 00:09:50,375.9902585 --> 00:09:52,745.9902585 They say, Oh, I can now afford to live in this home. 122 00:09:53,145.9902585 --> 00:09:56,835.9902585 And that makes them more likely to buy the home and take the risk there. 123 00:09:57,275.9902585 --> 00:09:59,515.9902585 Now there's a negative impact right now. 124 00:09:59,705.9902585 --> 00:10:01,455.9892585 Obviously there's trade tensions. 125 00:10:01,495.9892585 --> 00:10:04,965.9902585 So there's heightened uncertainty and these. 126 00:10:05,365.9902585 --> 00:10:10,265.9902585 This kind of trade conflict and tariff, it weighs on consumer's minds. 127 00:10:10,275.9902585 --> 00:10:13,505.9902585 Like everyone you talk to is talking about tariffs right now. 128 00:10:13,915.9902585 --> 00:10:17,795.9902585 And typically these people don't usually talk about anything in the economy. 129 00:10:18,75.9902585 --> 00:10:19,485.9892585 So you can tell it's very present. 130 00:10:19,485.9902585 --> 00:10:20,585.9892585 It's very top of mind. 131 00:10:21,245.9902585 --> 00:10:26,755.9902585 And when you're your average borrower, you start to get very nervous about what's going on in the market. 132 00:10:26,765.9902585 --> 00:10:30,705.9902585 So this is something that's definitely going to have an impact on real estate. 133 00:10:30,765.9902585 --> 00:10:39,605.9902585 Also the slower economic growth projection for Q1 could temper housing market activity as job growth stalls and business sentiment weakens. 134 00:10:39,635.9892585 --> 00:10:43,135.9902585 So that's once again, like if you start seeing, Hey, my buddy got laid off. 135 00:10:43,325.9902585 --> 00:10:46,745.9902585 We just saw in the mortgage industry, a whole lender shut down Canadian operations. 136 00:10:46,745.9902585 --> 00:10:51,530.8902585 You start seeing things like this and you're like, maybe it isn't the best time to buy. 137 00:10:51,610.9902585 --> 00:10:55,120.9902585 So these kinds of pervasive thoughts are something that we'll keep an eye on. 138 00:10:55,690.9902585 --> 00:11:15,250.9902585 So whereas we typically see an increase in prices with falling rates, right now, it's a unique scenario where there's some hesitation and, you know, there's always going to be some who will swim in the other direction and see this as an opportunity to invest where among them, but there's going to be a broader sense that maybe it's time to keep our. 139 00:11:15,615.9902585 --> 00:11:18,30.9902585 Our purse a little close Yeah. 140 00:11:18,30.9902585 --> 00:11:24,750.9897585 And if you are trying to time the market, we always say, don't try to time the markets time in the market. 141 00:11:24,750.9897585 --> 00:11:31,530.9907585 So whether you're buying an investment property, Or whether you're trying to move up in the property ladder, do it. 142 00:11:31,530.9907585 --> 00:11:36,450.9907585 If it, if it makes sense for you, if you really need that extra space for your, for your family, then sure. 143 00:11:36,450.9907585 --> 00:11:37,10.9907585 It makes sense. 144 00:11:37,10.9907585 --> 00:11:38,950.9897585 Just, just keep in mind, there are some risks there. 145 00:11:38,950.9907585 --> 00:11:43,890.9907585 Like we are seeing some houses that are sitting a lot longer on the, on the market right now. 146 00:11:44,210.9907585 --> 00:11:46,790.9907585 That could change as we near the spring market here. 147 00:11:46,790.9907585 --> 00:11:51,520.9907585 But, like Brandon said, there's, there's some pros and cons to, to both buying and selling right now. 148 00:11:52,520.9907585 --> 00:11:52,990.9907585 for sure. 149 00:11:53,0.9907585 --> 00:11:56,220.9907585 And also think about where you're buying and where you're investing in. 150 00:11:56,230.9907585 --> 00:12:06,80.9907585 So, you know, you can see heavy tariffs on aluminum and steel, like the steel industry in Hamilton, for example, this is going to have a broader impact over there. 151 00:12:06,440.9907585 --> 00:12:06,790.9907585 So. 152 00:12:07,0.9907585 --> 00:12:27,180.9897585 You know, that's something where prices could come down, but if you're in another area where, you know, there's not as much industry jobs, like it's more of like just an investment community or cottage country or things like that, like you might not see the, the drop off, but the flip side is also true of that where cottagers might feel the pinch because they own in other areas and sell off those properties. 153 00:12:27,190.9897585 --> 00:12:28,320.9897585 So just things like that. 154 00:12:28,550.9907585 --> 00:12:32,330.9907585 You want to look at the broader picture, look at the immediate end. 155 00:12:32,600.9907585 --> 00:12:48,840.9907585 Industry impact, look at broader things in the economy that could impact the areas, and then make that decision that you know you can support and it won't crush you if the house price on something you buy goes down by 5 percent one year and takes two years to catch up with an average 3 percent growth. 156 00:12:49,90.9907585 --> 00:12:51,760.9907585 If you're going to hold the property, that's not a huge deal. 157 00:12:52,650.9907585 --> 00:12:57,250.9907585 But if you're trying to do a fix and flips, for example, that's where you need to tread more cautiously. 158 00:12:57,585.9907585 --> 00:12:57,765.9907585 Yeah. 159 00:12:57,765.9907585 --> 00:13:07,995.9907585 So let's touch a bit on the, the inflation currently right now, you know, the current levels, inflation remains near the 2 percent range and with January CPI at one, 1. 160 00:13:08,215.9907585 --> 00:13:08,775.9907585 9%. 161 00:13:09,640.9907585 --> 00:13:10,741.0407585 It's expected to rise to 2. 162 00:13:10,741.0407585 --> 00:13:15,460.9907585 5 percent in March as a temporary GST HST suspension ends. 163 00:13:15,830.9907585 --> 00:13:21,340.9907585 So the real main metric here that we want to pay attention to is the core inflation, which. 164 00:13:21,730.9907585 --> 00:13:25,780.9907585 Persistent shelter price inflation has kept that core inflation above 2%. 165 00:13:26,780.9907585 --> 00:13:28,710.9907585 Yeah, we've talked about this time and time again. 166 00:13:28,740.9897585 --> 00:13:40,860.9907585 It's kind of funny that You know, we raise rates to, to bring down inflation, but then, you know, we have inflation caused by the rising rates leading to shelter costs increases. 167 00:13:41,140.9907585 --> 00:13:51,560.9907585 So it's kind of this funny, like chicken and the egg scenario, but yeah, we have to do, we do have to keep an eye on things like that GST, HST credit that's ending and things like that, that aren't. 168 00:13:51,865.9907585 --> 00:13:56,335.9907585 Like boosting the market unnaturally, the little government interventions. 169 00:13:56,345.9907585 --> 00:13:58,935.9907585 So that's something to keep a little eye on there for sure., 170 00:13:59,385.9907585 --> 00:14:01,245.9907585 inflation expectations to come. 171 00:14:01,715.9897585 --> 00:14:05,595.9907585 They are rising due to tariff related costs fears. 172 00:14:06,295.9907585 --> 00:14:15,455.9897585 the trade war impact is going to be viewed by the Bank of Canada through a lens that monetary policy cannot fully counteract the effects of a trade war. 173 00:14:15,805.9907585 --> 00:14:16,325.9907585 So. 174 00:14:16,705.9907585 --> 00:14:24,615.9907585 The Bank of Canada is going to be hyper focused on preventing short term price increases becoming future persistent inflation. 175 00:14:24,625.9897585 --> 00:14:28,655.9907585 So, you might pay a little bit more at a grocery store or a gas station or wherever right now. 176 00:14:28,865.9907585 --> 00:14:30,325.9907585 They want that to be temporary. 177 00:14:30,615.9897585 --> 00:14:33,845.9897585 They don't want that to be long term set in going forward. 178 00:14:33,845.9897585 --> 00:14:35,380.9907585 So that's something they're really going to watch. 179 00:14:35,680.9907585 --> 00:14:35,860.9907585 Yeah. 180 00:14:35,860.9907585 --> 00:14:36,450.9902585 So buckle up. 181 00:14:36,450.9902585 --> 00:14:39,280.9897585 We're in for quite a ride here in 2025. 182 00:14:39,280.9897585 --> 00:14:43,540.9907585 If you aren't subscribed already, make sure to hit that subscribe button and we'll see you on the next video.
.9Well, the bank of Canada just made it seventh consecutive rate cut this morning for another 0.
25%.
.891769617So what's it all mean? Well, in this video, we're going to break everything down for you, including what this may mean to the Canadian housing market, how this impacts you and what might be next for Canada and its economy. 4 00:00:15,286.891769617 --> 00:00:23,946.892769617 So if you're new to the show, my name's Tom Moffitt, and I'm joined by my cohost, Brandon Love, we're both top producing mortgage brokers here in Canada, and we love to simplify real estate for you. 5 00:00:24,261.892769617 --> 00:00:29,341.892769617 While also helping you achieve financial freedom and a broken blueprint that exists here in Canada today. 6 00:00:29,841.892769617 --> 00:00:34,141.892769617 So news of the rate cut today did not come as a surprise for anyone. 7 00:00:34,371.892769617 --> 00:00:41,856.892769617 Uh, industry experts, economists, and widespread market speculators were actually Thinking we might see a jumbo cut today. 8 00:00:42,236.892769617 --> 00:00:43,326.792769617 So a reduction of 0. 9 00:00:43,326.892769617 --> 00:00:46,766.892769617 25 was a pretty tepid response from the bank of Canada. 10 00:00:47,66.892769617 --> 00:00:47,316.892769617 Yeah. 11 00:00:47,316.892769617 --> 00:00:52,106.892769617 And it, it's funny because even three weeks ago it was the complete opposite. 12 00:00:52,136.892769617 --> 00:00:54,116.892769617 30 percent of economists were stating that. 13 00:00:54,501.892769617 --> 00:00:57,251.892769617 They probably aren't expecting a cut whatsoever. 14 00:00:57,251.892769617 --> 00:01:02,391.892769617 It's just, it's funny how this year it's been literally day to day things evolve and change. 15 00:01:02,391.892769617 --> 00:01:08,651.891769617 So you, uh, as much as people like to speculate of what's coming next to like, we really don't know because anything could change. 16 00:01:08,669.712018141 --> 00:01:09,159.712018141 For sure. 17 00:01:09,169.712018141 --> 00:01:11,19.712018141 We always say there's no crystal ball. 18 00:01:11,39.712018141 --> 00:01:13,709.711018141 And this year is a great example of that. 19 00:01:14,259.712018141 --> 00:01:19,609.711518141 You want to plan for your long term strategy and think about it in terms of like a football game. 20 00:01:19,609.711518141 --> 00:01:19,869.711018141 Okay. 21 00:01:19,869.712018141 --> 00:01:24,659.712018141 If you have a bad first quarter, you don't change up all the entire lineup. 22 00:01:24,679.712018141 --> 00:01:28,649.712018141 You might make some subtle tweaks, but you're not throwing the baby out with the bathwater. 23 00:01:28,659.712018141 --> 00:01:31,259.712018141 That's the same thing when it comes to your mortgage. 24 00:01:31,369.712018141 --> 00:01:31,719.712018141 So. 25 00:01:31,944.712018141 --> 00:01:42,934.71201814 Stick to a strategy that you can plan for long term, but recognize that there are periods like this and there are political leaders and tensions and things like that that do add to volatility in certain scenarios. 26 00:01:43,934.71201814 --> 00:01:47,334.71101814 Okay, so let's jump into the reasons for the cut. 27 00:01:47,884.71201814 --> 00:01:55,894.71201814 Despite stronger than expected growth, the cut addresses uncertainty from trade tensions and it aims to stabilize the Canadian economy. 28 00:01:56,364.71201814 --> 00:02:03,104.61301814 Really we are going into 2025 with an outlook that Well, once revisited, GDP grew 2. 29 00:02:03,104.71301814 --> 00:02:06,144.71301814 6 percent in Q4 of 2024. 30 00:02:06,494.71301814 --> 00:02:09,194.61301814 This was revised up from previously reported 2. 31 00:02:09,194.71301814 --> 00:02:11,434.71301814 2 percent in Q3. 32 00:02:12,14.71301814 --> 00:02:15,494.71301814 Now, this growth was bolstered by past rate cuts. 33 00:02:15,504.71201814 --> 00:02:23,684.71301814 So we do have to be a little bit cautious about that and realize that it is expected to slow down in Q1 2025 due to trade conflicts. 34 00:02:24,304.71301814 --> 00:02:26,684.71301814 So going forward to this, we. 35 00:02:27,324.71301814 --> 00:02:36,624.71301814 We entered 2025 in solid condition, okay, GDP growth and inflation were near that 2 percent target, but trade tensions and U. 36 00:02:36,624.71301814 --> 00:02:36,804.71301814 S. 37 00:02:36,814.71301814 --> 00:02:41,764.71201814 tariffs are expected to slow economic activity and increase inflationary pressures. 38 00:02:41,784.71301814 --> 00:02:46,494.71301814 So like we said, it is volatile because These tariffs day to day things change. 39 00:02:46,774.71301814 --> 00:02:49,984.71301814 So a lot ebbs and flows on what happens there. 40 00:02:49,984.71301814 --> 00:02:51,644.71301814 And then the market reaction to that. 41 00:02:52,624.71301814 --> 00:03:00,309.71301814 So let's dive into how this actually impacts you, because I don't know about you, but when I read about tariffs, sometimes I'm like, Okay. 42 00:03:00,309.71301814 --> 00:03:11,674.71301814 How does this actually apply to my day to day life? And for every Canadian, this is going to be a little bit different based on the industry you're in, but broad strokes, there are impacts of the rate cuts today that do apply to Yeah. 43 00:03:11,674.71301814 --> 00:03:18,614.71301814 So the media has a really tough time in, in really simplifying and in a digestible form for consumers. 44 00:03:18,944.71301814 --> 00:03:23,874.71301814 They always talk about the overnight lending rate and a lot of consumers, people, the general public. 45 00:03:24,249.71301814 --> 00:03:37,379.71201814 Think that they're referring to the actual interest rate the overnight lending rate is really just a fancy way of saying like, Hey, this is what the bar is set by the bank of Canada and the banks will have their own prime rate that's set. 46 00:03:37,379.71301814 --> 00:03:41,849.71201814 So when it comes to variable rate mortgages, they are always dictated by the prime rate. 47 00:03:42,79.71201814 --> 00:03:43,139.71201814 So for example, today. 48 00:03:43,739.71301814 --> 00:03:47,459.71301814 Banks will most likely all lower their prime rate to 4. 49 00:03:47,879.71301814 --> 00:03:47,899.71301814 95%. 50 00:03:48,139.71301814 --> 00:03:56,789.71301814 Now, some banks have their own prime rate, but what they'll give you from a variable rate perspective is either a discount or a surplus on prime. 51 00:03:56,909.71301814 --> 00:03:59,649.71201814 So in today's world, we're seeing discounts off of prime. 52 00:03:59,899.71201814 --> 00:04:02,909.71301814 So you might be looking at a prime minus 0. 53 00:04:02,909.81301814 --> 00:04:06,499.71301814 4 to prime minus 1 percent to give you some examples there. 54 00:04:06,499.71301814 --> 00:04:08,589.71301814 So that's the variable rate mortgage. 55 00:04:08,589.71301814 --> 00:04:10,409.71301814 If you have a variable already. 56 00:04:10,634.71301814 --> 00:04:12,814.71301814 There's two different kinds of variable rates. 57 00:04:12,834.71301814 --> 00:04:16,294.71301814 So you have the static variable, you have an adjustable rate mortgage. 58 00:04:16,384.71301814 --> 00:04:20,164.71201814 So the differences between two are how they sound. 59 00:04:20,264.71301814 --> 00:04:24,724.71301814 A static variable is the payment stays the same throughout the entirety of the term. 60 00:04:25,64.71301814 --> 00:04:28,584.71401814 It does not fluctuate whether prime goes up or down. 61 00:04:28,614.71301814 --> 00:04:32,584.71201814 The payment stays the same, but the net rate on the backend does change. 62 00:04:32,824.71201814 --> 00:04:36,254.71301814 So if we are in a environment where rates. 63 00:04:36,669.71301814 --> 00:04:42,429.71301814 Uh, decrease, your net effective rate will go lower and you're also paying more principal towards the mortgage. 64 00:04:42,619.71301814 --> 00:04:44,799.71301814 When you have a static variable rate mortgage. 65 00:04:45,69.71301814 --> 00:04:47,269.71301814 Now an adjustable rate is how it sounds. 66 00:04:47,460.96264314 --> 00:04:49,979.71301814 It adjusts with the prime going up and down. 67 00:04:50,209.71301814 --> 00:04:51,459.71201814 So your payment will fluctuate. 68 00:04:51,459.71201814 --> 00:04:59,139.71301814 So if you do have an ARM adjustable rate mortgage, your payment will change by next payment, uh, period, which is next month. 69 00:04:59,199.71301814 --> 00:05:02,49.71301814 So, um, those are the main differences between the two. 70 00:05:02,49.71301814 --> 00:05:03,299.71301814 And it's really important that. 71 00:05:03,694.71301814 --> 00:05:18,704.71201814 We touch on fixed rates as well, because going back to my main point of how the media has a really hard time in simplifying it and digesting it for consumers is a lot of people think that the bank of Canada sets fixed rates where that really isn't the case. 72 00:05:19,199.71301814 --> 00:05:30,699.71201814 Fixed rates are taught or tied to the bond market, which does have a direct influence to what the bank of Canada does, but it doesn't necessarily say, Hey, prime rate is going down 0. 73 00:05:30,699.81201814 --> 00:05:30,759.61301814 25%. 74 00:05:30,759.71301814 --> 00:05:32,199.61301814 The bank of Canada has lowered it 0. 75 00:05:32,199.71301814 --> 00:05:33,269.71301814 25 percent today. 76 00:05:33,599.71301814 --> 00:05:35,609.61301814 Then that means fixed rates are going down 0. 77 00:05:35,609.71301814 --> 00:05:36,469.71301814 25%. 78 00:05:36,489.71201814 --> 00:05:37,869.71301814 That's, that's not how it works. 79 00:05:38,29.71301814 --> 00:05:40,509.71301814 But, uh, fixed rates are literally fluctuating. 80 00:05:40,819.71301814 --> 00:05:44,59.71301814 It seems like on a day to day basis here with, uh, with lenders. 81 00:05:44,65.98059184 --> 00:05:44,535.97959184 for sure. 82 00:05:44,545.97959184 --> 00:05:48,535.98059184 And the lenders do have an opportunity to really tweak that pricing. 83 00:05:48,535.98059184 --> 00:05:56,95.97959184 So at certain points, they might look at the broader economy and say, Hey, we want to add a ton of three year fixed rate mortgages to our book. 84 00:05:56,865.97959184 --> 00:05:59,965.98059184 So they'll really discount the three year fix and the five year fix is worse. 85 00:05:59,975.98059184 --> 00:06:01,595.97959184 At other times, it's the inverse of that. 86 00:06:01,975.98059184 --> 00:06:05,255.98059184 So it's really day to day, like we said, very volatile market. 87 00:06:05,475.98059184 --> 00:06:12,525.98059184 But that is partially based off the bond market, but I'm partially based off the lenders and how they want to mitigate risk within their book. 88 00:06:12,575.98059184 --> 00:06:12,815.98059184 Yeah. 89 00:06:12,815.98059184 --> 00:06:16,615.98059184 And to give you an example, I mean, we're looking at, what was it? Monday or Tuesday. 90 00:06:17,40.98059184 --> 00:06:23,570.98059184 We had a good majority of the lenders, let's call it around 70 percent of lenders adjusting their, their fixed rates, uh, lowering them. 91 00:06:23,840.98059184 --> 00:06:28,110.98059184 And that was before the bank of Canada announcing the, the, the lowering of rates today. 92 00:06:28,110.98059184 --> 00:06:30,840.98059184 So again, there are two separate things there. 93 00:06:31,60.98059184 --> 00:06:35,730.98059184 It's really important to, to know the differences there and to touch on line of credits. 94 00:06:35,790.98059184 --> 00:06:38,70.98059184 Your rate will change effectively today. 95 00:06:38,415.98059184 --> 00:06:40,545.98059184 Because the interest is compounded daily. 96 00:06:40,715.98059184 --> 00:06:46,355.98059184 So if you have a home equity line of credit, or you have an unsecured line of credit, you will see that change effectively today. 97 00:06:47,355.98059184 --> 00:07:03,895.97959184 And if you have a home equity line of credit, hit the subscribe button because we are going to be sharing strategies in future videos of how you can use that home equity line of credit to reduce your overall mortgage rate and additional strategies on how to use it as a tool to make your mortgage tax deductible. 98 00:07:04,19.32359184 --> 00:07:13,895.9902585 What do you think is is coming next down the pipe for us and the rest of the canadian economy? so we will always say this over and over again, that there is no crystal ball on. 99 00:07:14,165.9902585 --> 00:07:15,95.9902585 How this works out. 100 00:07:15,395.9902585 --> 00:07:27,705.9892585 We'll say that's that we don't have to eat our shorts when rates go the other way, but also because we can't control the tantrums of the orange man in the States or of whatever comes next with Canadian leadership. 101 00:07:27,705.9892585 --> 00:07:32,725.9892585 So there's a lot of variables that play into this and, you know, just the global market as a whole. 102 00:07:32,725.9892585 --> 00:07:50,70.9902585 So no crystal ball, but all indicators do point towards future rate Yeah, and one thing I will say too is if you are whether you're shopping for a home You have a mortgage and you're staying put or you're renewing or refinancing whatever the case is Make sure whatever you're picking from a a rate perspective. 103 00:07:50,140.9902585 --> 00:08:03,965.9892585 You're comfortable with it as an example first time homebuyers We likely will always suggest that we, uh, that you consider the fixed rate in the environment environments like this, because it's a bit more stable, you know, what your payment's going to be throughout the term. 104 00:08:04,195.9902585 --> 00:08:06,215.9902585 Now there's some exceptions to that rule. 105 00:08:06,215.9902585 --> 00:08:20,875.9902585 If the first time home buyers are high income earners and the mortgage compared to what they make, uh, the payment that is, is a relatively low payment, then sure, go with the variable because, you know, over the history of time, variables have outperformed fixed rates with COVID as the exception. 106 00:08:21,165.9902585 --> 00:08:22,215.9902585 So just. 107 00:08:22,550.9902585 --> 00:08:29,580.9902585 Bottom line, whatever you are deciding on picking, uh, for your renewal, refi, or purchase, just make sure you're comfortable with it at the end of the day. 108 00:08:30,580.9902585 --> 00:08:39,900.9902585 Yeah, I think the key thing to remember here is everyone talks a lot about rates, what's going on in the government, all this different shit, but really we live in our monthly budget. 109 00:08:40,40.9902585 --> 00:08:41,890.9902585 So figure out what your monthly budget is. 110 00:08:41,910.9902585 --> 00:08:53,510.9897585 Do you have room to swing up? If you don't just do the fix, because you know, the, the benefit of capturing the swing down is nice, but you have to prepare for if it goes the other way. 111 00:08:53,510.9897585 --> 00:09:01,430.9902585 And you don't want to be giving up kids swimming lessons and taking your vacation because you bet on rates coming down. 112 00:09:01,480.9902585 --> 00:09:03,140.9902585 So always do what's comfortable. 113 00:09:03,210.9902585 --> 00:09:08,790.9902585 Remember that you live in that monthly payment and you don't need to be a speculator in these types of scenarios. 114 00:09:09,790.9902585 --> 00:09:20,760.9902585 So, jumping forward from here, what can we see from housing market reactions? And I'm just going to quickly touch on both the positive impact and negative impact of what's going on in Canada right now. 115 00:09:21,260.9902585 --> 00:09:28,195.8902585 So, positive impact of interest rate cuts, previous rate reductions have already boosted housing activity. 116 00:09:28,375.9902585 --> 00:09:35,135.9902585 So there are buyers coming back into the fray who are seeing the positive rate market, and they're less scared to jump into the water. 117 00:09:35,515.9902585 --> 00:09:39,665.9902585 So this leads to increase consumption and demand in the sector. 118 00:09:40,265.9892585 --> 00:09:45,5.9902585 Uh, the lower policy rate also brings down mortgage rates and. 119 00:09:45,335.9902585 --> 00:09:47,825.9902585 It increases and supports that housing demand. 120 00:09:47,835.9902585 --> 00:09:50,375.9902585 So really people say, like I said, they live in that monthly. 121 00:09:50,375.9902585 --> 00:09:52,745.9902585 They say, Oh, I can now afford to live in this home. 122 00:09:53,145.9902585 --> 00:09:56,835.9902585 And that makes them more likely to buy the home and take the risk there. 123 00:09:57,275.9902585 --> 00:09:59,515.9902585 Now there's a negative impact right now. 124 00:09:59,705.9902585 --> 00:10:01,455.9892585 Obviously there's trade tensions. 125 00:10:01,495.9892585 --> 00:10:04,965.9902585 So there's heightened uncertainty and these. 126 00:10:05,365.9902585 --> 00:10:10,265.9902585 This kind of trade conflict and tariff, it weighs on consumer's minds. 127 00:10:10,275.9902585 --> 00:10:13,505.9902585 Like everyone you talk to is talking about tariffs right now. 128 00:10:13,915.9902585 --> 00:10:17,795.9902585 And typically these people don't usually talk about anything in the economy. 129 00:10:18,75.9902585 --> 00:10:19,485.9892585 So you can tell it's very present. 130 00:10:19,485.9902585 --> 00:10:20,585.9892585 It's very top of mind. 131 00:10:21,245.9902585 --> 00:10:26,755.9902585 And when you're your average borrower, you start to get very nervous about what's going on in the market. 132 00:10:26,765.9902585 --> 00:10:30,705.9902585 So this is something that's definitely going to have an impact on real estate. 133 00:10:30,765.9902585 --> 00:10:39,605.9902585 Also the slower economic growth projection for Q1 could temper housing market activity as job growth stalls and business sentiment weakens. 134 00:10:39,635.9892585 --> 00:10:43,135.9902585 So that's once again, like if you start seeing, Hey, my buddy got laid off. 135 00:10:43,325.9902585 --> 00:10:46,745.9902585 We just saw in the mortgage industry, a whole lender shut down Canadian operations. 136 00:10:46,745.9902585 --> 00:10:51,530.8902585 You start seeing things like this and you're like, maybe it isn't the best time to buy. 137 00:10:51,610.9902585 --> 00:10:55,120.9902585 So these kinds of pervasive thoughts are something that we'll keep an eye on. 138 00:10:55,690.9902585 --> 00:11:15,250.9902585 So whereas we typically see an increase in prices with falling rates, right now, it's a unique scenario where there's some hesitation and, you know, there's always going to be some who will swim in the other direction and see this as an opportunity to invest where among them, but there's going to be a broader sense that maybe it's time to keep our. 139 00:11:15,615.9902585 --> 00:11:18,30.9902585 Our purse a little close Yeah. 140 00:11:18,30.9902585 --> 00:11:24,750.9897585 And if you are trying to time the market, we always say, don't try to time the markets time in the market. 141 00:11:24,750.9897585 --> 00:11:31,530.9907585 So whether you're buying an investment property, Or whether you're trying to move up in the property ladder, do it. 142 00:11:31,530.9907585 --> 00:11:36,450.9907585 If it, if it makes sense for you, if you really need that extra space for your, for your family, then sure. 143 00:11:36,450.9907585 --> 00:11:37,10.9907585 It makes sense. 144 00:11:37,10.9907585 --> 00:11:38,950.9897585 Just, just keep in mind, there are some risks there. 145 00:11:38,950.9907585 --> 00:11:43,890.9907585 Like we are seeing some houses that are sitting a lot longer on the, on the market right now. 146 00:11:44,210.9907585 --> 00:11:46,790.9907585 That could change as we near the spring market here. 147 00:11:46,790.9907585 --> 00:11:51,520.9907585 But, like Brandon said, there's, there's some pros and cons to, to both buying and selling right now. 148 00:11:52,520.9907585 --> 00:11:52,990.9907585 for sure. 149 00:11:53,0.9907585 --> 00:11:56,220.9907585 And also think about where you're buying and where you're investing in. 150 00:11:56,230.9907585 --> 00:12:06,80.9907585 So, you know, you can see heavy tariffs on aluminum and steel, like the steel industry in Hamilton, for example, this is going to have a broader impact over there. 151 00:12:06,440.9907585 --> 00:12:06,790.9907585 So. 152 00:12:07,0.9907585 --> 00:12:27,180.9897585 You know, that's something where prices could come down, but if you're in another area where, you know, there's not as much industry jobs, like it's more of like just an investment community or cottage country or things like that, like you might not see the, the drop off, but the flip side is also true of that where cottagers might feel the pinch because they own in other areas and sell off those properties. 153 00:12:27,190.9897585 --> 00:12:28,320.9897585 So just things like that. 154 00:12:28,550.9907585 --> 00:12:32,330.9907585 You want to look at the broader picture, look at the immediate end. 155 00:12:32,600.9907585 --> 00:12:48,840.9907585 Industry impact, look at broader things in the economy that could impact the areas, and then make that decision that you know you can support and it won't crush you if the house price on something you buy goes down by 5 percent one year and takes two years to catch up with an average 3 percent growth. 156 00:12:49,90.9907585 --> 00:12:51,760.9907585 If you're going to hold the property, that's not a huge deal. 157 00:12:52,650.9907585 --> 00:12:57,250.9907585 But if you're trying to do a fix and flips, for example, that's where you need to tread more cautiously. 158 00:12:57,585.9907585 --> 00:12:57,765.9907585 Yeah. 159 00:12:57,765.9907585 --> 00:13:07,995.9907585 So let's touch a bit on the, the inflation currently right now, you know, the current levels, inflation remains near the 2 percent range and with January CPI at one, 1. 160 00:13:08,215.9907585 --> 00:13:08,775.9907585 9%. 161 00:13:09,640.9907585 --> 00:13:10,741.0407585 It's expected to rise to 2. 162 00:13:10,741.0407585 --> 00:13:15,460.9907585 5 percent in March as a temporary GST HST suspension ends. 163 00:13:15,830.9907585 --> 00:13:21,340.9907585 So the real main metric here that we want to pay attention to is the core inflation, which. 164 00:13:21,730.9907585 --> 00:13:25,780.9907585 Persistent shelter price inflation has kept that core inflation above 2%. 165 00:13:26,780.9907585 --> 00:13:28,710.9907585 Yeah, we've talked about this time and time again. 166 00:13:28,740.9897585 --> 00:13:40,860.9907585 It's kind of funny that You know, we raise rates to, to bring down inflation, but then, you know, we have inflation caused by the rising rates leading to shelter costs increases. 167 00:13:41,140.9907585 --> 00:13:51,560.9907585 So it's kind of this funny, like chicken and the egg scenario, but yeah, we have to do, we do have to keep an eye on things like that GST, HST credit that's ending and things like that, that aren't. 168 00:13:51,865.9907585 --> 00:13:56,335.9907585 Like boosting the market unnaturally, the little government interventions. 169 00:13:56,345.9907585 --> 00:13:58,935.9907585 So that's something to keep a little eye on there for sure., 170 00:13:59,385.9907585 --> 00:14:01,245.9907585 inflation expectations to come. 171 00:14:01,715.9897585 --> 00:14:05,595.9907585 They are rising due to tariff related costs fears. 172 00:14:06,295.9907585 --> 00:14:15,455.9897585 the trade war impact is going to be viewed by the Bank of Canada through a lens that monetary policy cannot fully counteract the effects of a trade war. 173 00:14:15,805.9907585 --> 00:14:16,325.9907585 So. 174 00:14:16,705.9907585 --> 00:14:24,615.9907585 The Bank of Canada is going to be hyper focused on preventing short term price increases becoming future persistent inflation. 175 00:14:24,625.9897585 --> 00:14:28,655.9907585 So, you might pay a little bit more at a grocery store or a gas station or wherever right now. 176 00:14:28,865.9907585 --> 00:14:30,325.9907585 They want that to be temporary. 177 00:14:30,615.9897585 --> 00:14:33,845.9897585 They don't want that to be long term set in going forward. 178 00:14:33,845.9897585 --> 00:14:35,380.9907585 So that's something they're really going to watch. 179 00:14:35,680.9907585 --> 00:14:35,860.9907585 Yeah. 180 00:14:35,860.9907585 --> 00:14:36,450.9902585 So buckle up. 181 00:14:36,450.9902585 --> 00:14:39,280.9897585 We're in for quite a ride here in 2025. 182 00:14:39,280.9897585 --> 00:14:43,540.9907585 If you aren't subscribed already, make sure to hit that subscribe button and we'll see you on the next video.
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