Nov 15: Big 4 predict rate cuts; A property listing boom; Wages rise; Banks drop interest rates

Crib Notes: Weekly Property and Finance Round-Up (Nov 15th)

Hosted by Carl and Jo Violeta

00:00 Introduction and Weekly Overview

00:11 Predictions on Rate Cuts

01:21 Property Listing Surge

01:59 Wage Growth Trends

02:36 Interest Rate Adjustments by Banks

02:59 Tips for Home Loan Borrowers

03:44 Conclusion and Sign-Off

 

How to negotiate a lower interest rate: https://www.instagram.com/reel/CyNsVUnvEbN/

Episode Transcript

(00:00):
This is Crib Notes, your cheat sheet for the week's property and finance news. 2 00:00:04,599.3051428571 --> 00:00:05,639.3051428571 Hi, I'm Carl. 3 00:00:05,639.3051428571 --> 00:00:06,259.3051428571 And I'm Jo. 4 00:00:06,519.3051428571 --> 00:00:08,309.3051428571 It's Friday, November 15th. 5 00:00:08,329.3051428571 --> 00:00:11,179.305142857 Here's what happened in property and finance this week. 6 00:00:11,739.305142857 --> 00:00:15,469.305142857 Big four predict rate cuts but not until 2025. 7 00:00:15,889.304142857 --> 00:00:17,579.304142857 A property listing boom. 8 00:00:17,919.304142857 --> 00:00:20,349.304142857 Wages rise but growth is falling. 9 00:00:20,479.304142857 --> 00:00:22,419.304142857 Banks drop interest rates. 10 00:00:23,602.418412857 --> 00:00:29,852.418412857 Inflation is down but the cash rate is still on hold and economists predict we won't see a rate cut this year. 11 00:00:30,72.418412857 --> 00:00:36,122.418412857 Economists from the Big Four Banks predict the Reserve Bank of Australia, RBA, will start cutting the cash rate cut. 12 00:00:36,137.418412857 --> 00:00:38,227.418412857 In February 2025. 13 00:00:38,517.418412857 --> 00:00:43,467.418412857 So Carl, there isn't much hope for an early Christmas present in the form of a rate cut. 14 00:00:43,817.418412857 --> 00:00:47,415.75174619 For now The cash rate's holding steady at 4. 15 00:00:47,545.75174619 --> 00:00:50,545.75174619 35%, which is where it's been since November last year. 16 00:00:50,695.368287544 --> 00:00:51,895.368287544 Inflation dropped to 2. 17 00:00:52,155.368287544 --> 00:00:57,315.368287544 8%, which is within the RBA's target range of 2 to 3%. 18 00:00:57,785.368287544 --> 00:01:09,815.368287544 So Carl, if the annual rate of inflation is within the RBA's target range, why didn't they cut the cash rate? This drop in inflation is largely thanks to energy rebates and cheaper fuel. 19 00:01:10,395.368287544 --> 00:01:17,375.368287544 But once items with the largest changes are removed, the trimmed mean rate of inflation is at 3. 20 00:01:17,745.368287544 --> 00:01:21,15.368287544 5%, which is higher than the target range. 21 00:01:21,778.701620877 --> 00:01:26,198.701620877 We saw a surge in property listings across Aussie cities in October. 22 00:01:26,698.701620877 --> 00:01:27,848.701620877 There was a 20. 23 00:01:27,888.701620877 --> 00:01:34,558.701620877 9 percent month on month increase in property listings in October and a 14 percent rise from last year. 24 00:01:35,58.701620877 --> 00:01:45,236.27956825 Melbourne Canberra recorded all time high listings for October while Sydney hit its highest in nine years and Brisbane and Hobart reached their highest in six years. 25 00:01:46,111.28056825 --> 00:01:58,794.85350058 While Perth saw a decade high, this increase in stock offers more choice for buyers and PropTrack reports that they are seeing favorable conditions for buyers particularly in Sydney and Melbourne. 26 00:01:59,294.85350058 --> 00:02:06,261.63487009 Wage growth has slowed With annual growth dropping below 4 percent for the first time since June 2023. 27 00:02:06,357.80028362 --> 00:02:11,777.85028362 According to data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics released on Wednesday, wages grew 3. 28 00:02:11,777.85028362 --> 00:02:16,97.80028362 5 percent over the year to September, with a 0. 29 00:02:16,147.80028362 --> 00:02:20,357.80028362 8 percent lift for both private and public sectors in the last quarter. 30 00:02:20,587.79928362 --> 00:02:24,247.79928362 So while wages are still growing, that growth is slowing. 31 00:02:24,747.79928362 --> 00:02:31,667.80028362 Healthcare, retail and admin saw the biggest wage bumps this quarter, but with slower than expected growth. 32 00:02:32,282.80028362 --> 00:02:36,292.80028362 The cost of living pressure is still hanging over Aussie households. 33 00:02:36,792.80028362 --> 00:02:42,902.80028362 Although the Reserve Bank has kept the cash rate on hold, some banks have cut interest rates on home loans. 34 00:02:42,942.80028362 --> 00:02:44,282.80028362 Carl, you're a mortgage broker. 35 00:02:44,612.80028362 --> 00:02:50,348.96147482 What are you seeing? Yeah, I'm seeing banks making some adjustments to their fixed rates. 36 00:02:50,538.96147482 --> 00:02:51,788.96247482 They have been dropping them. 37 00:02:52,628.96247482 --> 00:02:59,318.96247482 This is clearly a sign that the banks are anticipating a rate cut somewhere in 2025. 38 00:02:59,818.96247482 --> 00:03:15,469.94608805 So does that mean, Carl, that if you feel that your home loan interest rate is too high, that you don't have to wait for the reserve bank to cut the cash rate and you can go and shop around for other home loans? You should keep an eye on your interest rates. 39 00:03:15,519.94608805 --> 00:03:17,246.06710111 and if they're above. 40 00:03:17,335.1661118 --> 00:03:21,525.1661118 market rates, then you should speak to your bank about doing a home loan review. 41 00:03:22,10.1661118 --> 00:03:24,370.1661118 to see if they can do a better rate for you. 42 00:03:24,950.1661118 --> 00:03:33,550.1651118 Otherwise, if the banks don't want to play ball, you can always do your research and potentially look to move your home loan somewhere else. 43 00:03:34,380.1651118 --> 00:03:41,640.1651118 And if you want to speak to your bank and try to negotiate a cheaper interest rate, we have a video walking you through that process. 44 00:03:41,640.2651118 --> 00:03:43,800.1661118 We'll pop a link to it in the show notes. 45 00:03:44,551.48246375 --> 00:03:46,41.48246375 And now you're up to speed. 46 00:03:46,51.48246375 --> 00:03:47,571.48246375 Thanks for listening to Crib Notes. 47 00:03:47,621.48246375 --> 00:03:49,451.48246375 We'll be back again next Friday.